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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 12, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink (Edit)

GM – can’t fight the big market though, let it run up then maybe the $37.50 puts.

DIA note – this is why we stop out of mattress plays! Thank goodness I did what I said I would do yesterday – now I just have the Aug $136 puts and I will likely roll them up on today’s excitement so I’ll be right back where we started but with lots more cash. On the plus side, the DIA Aug $138 calls were a hedge against exactly what is happening now but I’ll be rolling those to $139s or $140s, depending on where the music stops. XXX

Q’s are slow going so far and GOOG wierdly dead. YHOO dead as usual…

Posted July 12, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink (Edit)

Dragon – which one – OIH? I’m not short yet, waiting for SLB to give me a turn signal.

SBUX going down no matter what.

MCD has got me puzzled. Going to initiate Sept $52.50s at $1.30 XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 9:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

Thank goodness I have Aug oil puts because my Julys would have been smoked! Still hurts though…
My poor DIA July $135 putter is getting killed but I’m not sure how much further up we can go (near 13,700) so I’m starting a roll of the DIAs here – just in case. Gold punched right through and this is record territory for the Dow but I’m not seeing enough confirming action from its buddies and I don’t see the Transports holding 3K with oil up here.

AMZN in kick-ass mode. CROX not. WFR taking off.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink (Edit)

OIH – $3 seemed to be the right price to sell the $180s – will DD if it goes to $5.

BOT still flying – someone thinks another bid is coming. They are a tempting short here, maybe Sept/July $230 puts for a $5 debit.

Speaking of debits – $10KP play buying 5 CLF Aug $90s for $3.35, selling 5 July $85s for perhaps $4 but certainly with a .20 tstop. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

FTO weakening?

TSO – nicely down.

EOG $75 puts at $1.65 as a mo play ahead of inventory. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – what the hell? I’m thrilled because I thought I was going to eat those $540s – especially with Happy scaring me! Now I’m being smart and stopping out if they bounce back more than 20%, maybe picking some up if the rally lasts.

FXI – BS to that. I can’t resist the $140s – you have to look at how ridiculous their basket is right now. Sold 10 at $2.80, will sell another 10 if they break up from here.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:33 am | Permalink (Edit)

CLF – I’m looking for $4 on a good run but now the rally is running out of gas so we may need to take what we can get! XXX

CAT – sadly yes but I’m in the leap with a .05 basis from previous sales and it’s worth $17.55 so I’m moving pretty much penny for penny up. That means protection means more to me than maximizing monthly profits so I only roll to in the money calls. He’s still got .60 of premium and I can roll him to Aug $80s for another $1.60 in premium with $3.30 in downside protection so I’ve got no urgency.

SLB with the BIG turn! RIG $110 puts at $1.82 as a mo play, .40 tstop. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

BHI Aug $85 puts at $1.62 XXX
BHI July $85 pts for .30 as a fun play XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:35 am | Permalink (Edit)

ECA Aug $60 puts at .93 XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:43 am | Permalink (Edit)

OII – Aug $55 puts for me, now $1.38. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 10:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

RIMM zooming again, that’s a good market sign.

Bush didn’t say anything that was taken as negative by the markets so we should get a good push here.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 11:46 am | Permalink (Edit)

BHP and RTP experiencing what poker players call a tilt as money flows from one to the other!

I’m so glad I sold those RTP $330s on Tuesday but amazingly they are still fetching $2!

DIA Aug $138s are half out at $1.95 and I will see if I pick up the $139s or not later, currently $1.55. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 12:05 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Oil creeping quietly down (oops sorry I wasn’t going to talk about it!). Selling XOM Aug $90s at $1.75 as they topped out at $1.85 on a brief spike, like DIA, will decide later on reposition. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 12:15 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – oops, forgot to mention I have been on plan accumulating XOM Aug $85 puts, now $1.20 XXX

DIA – settling in on Aug $137 puts to reestablish my downside covers, now $1.98 XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 12:22 pm | Permalink (Edit)

NMX – tracks oil to some extent. NYX has many complex issues to deal with. Absolutely great play to go long and sell short calls. Meanwhile, selling the July $140s, now $2.45 is a must by EOD against at least half of my Aug $140s. XXX

GSK – why not sell 6 July $52.50s for .70?

Posted July 12, 2007 at 1:10 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – I treat those more like a strangle to keep myself from losing 20% if the Dow opens up or down 500 points.

Yev – I agree with you! I am currently 100% hedged on Apples with the $130 and $135 calls I sold but my Oct $140s gained .50 today and the $130 caller only gained .30 so I have no worries. Even my Jan ‘09 leap outgained my $130 caller, still at $4.50. I’ll have to see how these shake out – if they expire deep in the money, I’ll be forced to roll to the Aug $135s, currently $6, which would cover almost half my October basis but if Apple finishes closer to $130, I will probably sell the Aug $130s on 1/2 my position. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 1:21 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Mackey – If that isn’t illegal then I really don’t understand SEC regs at all!

CCJ – I have decided this is all nothing but pinning to $50 for expiration. There is nothing that we haven’t heard before so it’s a good time to pick up Jan $55s for $4 XXX You can sell the Aug $55s for .78 but I’d rather wait as you can always sell the Aug $50s, now $2.48 if things go south.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 1:57 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FXI – I hadda throw in the towel on those shorts – way too scared of Asia’s reaction to a 200-point Dow rally. XXX

I’m back to a lot of naked calls and heavy DIA puts to cover so I’m blowing off the bulk of the DIA calls. Stopped out of tons of July short calls and july puts and I just am not in the mood to restablish here so I’m going to go a little overweight in DIA puts, keep the Q calls, which barely moved and see if I end up stopping out of my naked calls tomorrow. XXX

Gold – try NAK, great long-term play Feb $15s at $1.75 or Aug $12.50s for $1.07 or buy the stock for $12.95 and sell the Nov $12.50s for $2.10 for a $12.50 return on $10.90 invested – 15% in 4 months. This is a great very long play that would be fine to own if they fall back to $10 (and you can roll your caller down anyway). XXX

AUY is off to a slow start and Aug $12.50s are just .57, these guys are on a 50% growth path so the Jan ‘10 $15s for $2.65 are also interesting and you can sell Oct $15s for .38 which may not sound like much but do that 10 times in 18 months and you’ve got free contracts. XXX They are down on an offer to buy MDG for a pretty good premium. If that deal dies, like ICE, AUY should get a boost, with the deal – I still like them.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 2:13 pm | Permalink (Edit)

SNDK – selling July $55s for $1.62 is just free money. The stock has to gain .50 per day for 6 days for him to get even and you will gain over $2 on that move so you’re looking at $60 before this hurts you. That of course means that you can do a bear call with the July $60s at .40 and have almost no possibility of damage but you are tossing 25% of your potential gain. I’m going to make that play myself but with the Aug $52.50s so that’s FIRST selling the July $55s for $1.62. IF they run up to $1.75, then I will buy the Aug $52.50s to match, now $3.70 and THEN I will consider capping it with the August $60 calls, currently .93 as I will maintain some value that way that may be better than having the July $60s expire worthless. XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 2:31 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TASR may be moving to pin $15 but .25 is not a cliff.

Posted July 12, 2007 at 3:31 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Last time we had a gain this large was 3/21/03 but that was the 3rd 200pt gain in 10 sessions that started with Q1 earnings and the Dow went from 7.5K to 8.5K – that would be a 2K move at today’s levels. So I guess I’ll leave those Qs open for now and take a few more DIA Aug $139s, now $1.95, just in case…

Posted July 12, 2007 at 3:42 pm | Permalink (Edit)

C waking up – that’s one I don’t need a good reason to buy. Aug $52.50s are $1.52 XXX

Posted July 12, 2007 at 3:47 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FIG moving up so BX Aug $30s at $1.68 are not so crazy. XXX for a few.

 


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