Thursday Morning Post
by HappyTrading - August 9th, 2007 9:13 am
This is for the Thursday comments! Be very careful out there. This is why we’re keeping cash. Good thinking by those who added to their mattress plays yesterday!
Thrill a Minute Thursday
by HappyTrading - August 9th, 2007 1:31 am
"…it doesn’t necessarily mean that being bearish is suddenly more profitable!" – Phil Davis
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The stock market was in a very cheerful mood today! CSCO’s earnings seems to have inspired buyers to come back in. CSCO shares went up +6.7%, comparing to yesterday’s AH gain of +5.73%. I also mentioned PCLN yesterday with an AH rise of +10%, and it closed up more than +22%!! Things were simply on fire today! Right from the open, the investors/traders must have felt like they are chasing a runaway train! Nasdaq gained more than +60 points at one time, closing up +51.38! SPX closed just under 1500. The Dow made it almost to 13700!
I’m going to continue the theme that I started yesterday, comparing VIX to SPX. Yesterday, I pointed out that the support levels of SPX seem to be pretty strong and VIX has gotten too high. Together, these indicators signaled a market bounce for me! And, look what happened today! I can’t take all the credit though. There were simply too many shorts in the market. With a bellweather company like CSCO delivering positive news, the bulls used it as an excuse to give the shorts a hard squeeze! Of course, from my perspective, the “technicals” supported that move!
SPX

SPX pierced through 1500 at one point, but, closed just under it. Its MACD continues to rise. We’ve been talking about the support levels, which I had set them at 1440-1460. Now, I’m looking at some near-term “resistance” levels. Since SPX did go above 1500, I’m seeing 1500-1520. This is the range that I’ll be looking for SPX to go above to feel more comfortable that the market has completed a healthy correction, and can resume back up.
VIX

VIX continued its slide today, although not by a whole lot. Its MACD is now curving down. “19" was its resistance for over 3 years. Now, it may become a support. So, VIX could come all the way down to test 19. Going along with yesterday’s theme of “VIX peaking and coming down, up goes the market”, we may see the market go up more, before the market feels the need to make a double bottom. So, keep in mind of those support and resistance ranges.
President Bush had something to…
Big Chart Update
by Phil - August 8th, 2007 4:09 am
How are we doing?
When I have to view the market from 4,000 miles away I find the good old Big Chart to be a particularly useful way to check the vitals:
|
|
|
Day’s |
Must |
Comfort |
Break |
Next |
|
Index |
Current |
Move |
Hold |
Zone |
Out |
Goal |
|
13,463 |
35 |
13,000 |
13,300 |
13,500 |
14,000 |
|
|
2,891 |
57 |
2,800 |
2,900 |
3,000 |
3,250 |
|
|
1,476 |
9 |
1,470 |
1,505 |
1,530 |
1,550 |
|
|
9,606 |
52 |
After The Fed Wednesday
by HappyTrading - August 8th, 2007 12:46 am
So, the Fed holds rates unchanged and the market rallies, as explained by this article from Reuters. According to this article, “The Fed, which also left interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting, buoyed the market by reassuring investors that problems in mortgage lending and corporate finance would not drag on the broader economy.” Hmmm…is it all really all that simple? So, why did the market dip to day low, before finding the “right” direction to go?

In fact, “this” happens a lot when there are no surprises from the Fed. (By “this”, I mean that the market first goes the “wrong” direction, and then, turns around quickly and go the right direction.) Most people expected the Fed to hold the rates steady. So, why didn’t they react right away and let the market go up more? Why did it have to come down first? Manipulation? No, you don’t say! Could it be that if the market had continued to go up right when the Fed announced its decision, it might have jumped too much and get ahead of itself? Are the big traders “somehow” guided by technicals?…and, is there some level of “control” beyond the fundamentals? No, you don’t say!
Let’s expand a little more on “the technicals”!
SPX

SPX had tested 1440 and it held up. Yesterday, it closed above 1460. These are the support range levels that we’ve been looking at since 7/26. Now, the chart shows that the MACD is turning up. These are signs that show the strength of the support.
I’ve also been pointing out that the VIX is very high!
VIX

VIX today closed below its 10-day MA. The MACD is just starting to come down. In the past 10 years, VIX had always gone up when the market is down. But, when VIX peaks and starts to slide, the market goes up. When VIX stays steady, the market continues on an uptrend rise.

So, why am I pointing this out? Like I’ve been saying for a few days now, I think that VIX had gotten too high, ahead of its technicals, and it needs to come down. This translates to “It’s time for the market to bounce”!
Also, check this out:
SPX (monthly, 5 years)

Even after 3 weeks…
Volatility = C-O-N-F-U-S-I-O-N
by OptionSage - August 7th, 2007 11:53 pm
Well, well, well, what an interesting day in the market! Billed as one of the most anticipated Federal Reserve policy statements in decades, the market digested the news with the following intra-day moves: It was initially down, then it was, up, then it was down, then it was up, then it went up some more, then it went down a lot, then it went up a lot, then it went down, then….heck now I am confused…where did it end up? Flat?!?!
At 1.37 I mentioned “I sure hope we get some reaction either way, I’ll be very disappointed if we don’t get volatility after the statement comes through.” Well we got the volatility alright, but it sure would have been nice to see the move in one direction! As it is we end the day up just slightly, 35 points on the Dow, 14 on the NASDAQ and 9 on the S&P 500.
Today, I think we all learned that volatility can be spelled C-O-N-F-U-S-I-O-N! The market didn’t know how to react to the policy statement which read:
“The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
“Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy.
“Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
“Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.”
Well it seemed everyone was confused. Our pal Jimbo – oh you know we love you Jimbo! – did a complete 180 on CNBC where he stated that he did NOT want a rate cut because…
Tuesday Member Post
by HappyTrading - August 7th, 2007 9:07 am
Good morning everyone! This is just a post for today’s comments! Wow, ONXX just keeps on going!
Which Way Tuesday
by HappyTrading - August 7th, 2007 3:05 am
What a refreshing day Monday was, after what happened last week! On Sunday night, I said, "We’ll likely see more volatility in the beginning of the week." Today, the market opened lower. Financials, housing, oil refiners, oil services, and metals all got hit early on and quickly slid
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to new lows. But, at one point, the VIX jumped over 26! On the members board, I commented, "The market was hitting all those that were still high (PCU/FCX/ACH/BIDU/FWLT/FFIV…etc). But, VIX is so high; not chasing puts right now either. "
Soon after that, the market started to turn. And, much to my pleasant surprise, SPX climbed all the way back to above the support levels that we’ve been talking about (1440-1460), closing at 1467.67! The Dow added nearly 300 points! Today’s actions pretty much cancelled out Friday’s damage. The market now stands in a nice neutral place, waiting for the Feds to make the call.
Asian markets seem to be picking up the same vibes and are waiting to see how the U.S. market will react on Tuesday. Even though in China, they seem to think that their inflation will be contained. Hong Kong, China, and Japan are all just slightly in the green after the morning session. Maybe people are feeling a bit "sheepish" right now, and not sure if they want to be bulls or bears. There’s certainly no need to act too fast, and there’s nothing wrong with being cautious and patient!
Both Phil and Zman had been looking for the oil to come down. Today’s stock market rally was nicely accompanied by a continuing fall in oil and gas prices. September oil fell more than $3/barrel, and gas futures slid more than 10 cents to settle below $2 a gallon. Also, on Zman’s site, he is keeping an eye on the companies that are reporting this week.
WYNN reported strong results after the market, sending its shares up more than +10%, to above 118, in AH! LVS also benefitted from the news, going up +3.76 points, to almost 103, in AH! Both LVS and WYNN were featured in my post on 7/30, LVS was trading around 86, and WYNN was trading around 100! Many our members should be quite "happy" tomorrow morning, as one of our members posted this note:…
Monday Member Comments
by Phil - August 6th, 2007 5:22 am
As I’m away and we have guest contributors (great stuff from both Happy and Sage this morning by the way!) I think we should do a post every morning that will clearly be where the chat should go.
(That would be this one for those of you not quick on the uptake!)
- Phil
Monday Madness – Welcome to the House of Fun!
by OptionSage - August 6th, 2007 3:29 am
“..Welcome to the house of fun, Welcome to the lion’s den, Temptation’s on his way, Welcome to the house of fun..” – Madness, House of Fun Lyrics, 1982
Temptation is indeed on its way and the market sure does feel like a lion’s den! The steeper the drop, the more severe the decline, the more painful the feeling, the higher the VIX (currently 25.16 after an 18.57% increase on Friday!), the more Cramer flies off the edge, the closer we come to the bottom. BUT, that does not mean we should try to predict when it will occur so two things to keep in mind this week:
1 – “IT IS NOT MY JOB TO SAVE THE MARKETS” – Phil Davis
2 – DO NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE (meaning it’s dangerous to try to buy a stock that is falling because likelihood is it’s falling for a reason!
The S&P agrees “Investors were provided with a reminder of why it is still too early to go bottom-fishing in the financial sector when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the debt rating outlook for Bear Stearns (BSC 108.42, -7.21) to negative from stable.”
Indeed Cramer followed up on Friday in his Mad Money show with the comment “It will never be harder to keep you in the market than over the next two weeks”.
In response to Cramer’s desperate call for a rate cut Phil commented on Friday:
“The problem is A) The Fed can’t cut. B) What he is asking us to save is to save the brokers who overpaid for commodities and overpaid for energy stocks and guided their companies to overpay for companies in deals that make no fundamental sense and to bail out builders who overpaid for land and materials while overcharging the consumers… etc… They are like crack addicts that need “just one more” interest rate fix to get through the night but THEY ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE!”
So the question is how are YOU positioned? Phil noted also on Friday:
“If I wasn’t heavily hedged I’d be 100% in cash after watching today. I’m over 80% cash in the STP…
Another Manic Monday?!
by HappyTrading - August 6th, 2007 2:51 am
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Hello, everyone! This is HappyTrading! As most of you know Phil is on a family vacation for the next 2 weeks. I’ll be "Phil"ing in with the daily posts on Phil’s blog! I’m on the west coast, so it would be difficult for me to do a post before the market opens. Yes, I am still in bed at 4 am (7 am EST).
So, I don’t promise a morning post, but, I’ll definitely make at least one post a day, most likely in the evening. For our members, which ever post is the lastest will be the one to make your daily conversations in.
Now, let’s talk stocks! Boy, what a market we have, huh?! Down-and-up, run, skip, jump, crawl, roll, fall, spin, slide, and crash; all in one day (Friday)! The major indices all broke the near-term support levels that we have been looking at: the Dow closed below 13200; SPX closed below 1440; and Nasdaq closed below 2525!
Following our market, the Asian markets opened mostly lower, as expected. Japan (N225) opened down over 100 points and went briefly under 16700. It is bouncing back right now, as I’m writing, down only 43 points. Hong Kong is presently down over 560 points, or 2.5%!! Shaighai is actually "up" 51 points at the moment! We’ll have to see in the morning how they all close.
On my blog, we looked at the SPX and Nasdaq’s weekly chart this weekend:
We could look at 1420 for support on SPX. This is where the weekly lower Bollinger Band (BB) is at, and there is a stronger support is at 1400! For the Nasdaq, we’ll be pay attention to 2475!

In both case, the MACD has turned down, which is not a "happy" sign!
On Tuesday (8/7), we have the FOMC meeting. Although most people don’t expect the Feds to lower the rates just yet, more and more people do think that the rates will be lowered before the end of the year. We’ll likely see more volatility in the beginning of the week.
We’ll be paying close attention to the financial (XLF, ETF) and housing (HGX, index) sectors. Oil refiners fell off the cliff these past 2 weeks and still could go lower. Many of the refiners are reporting this week, and Zman…

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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