Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


3 Steps to Successful Investing

OptionSage submits:

In the words of Warren Buffett’s mentor Benjamin Graham:

“Investing does not require genius.  What it needs is, first, reasonably good intelligence; second, sound principles of operation, third, and most important, firmness of character”

Since the first item on Graham’s list – “intelligence” – simply means the ability to read, add and subtract, we can skip quickly to “sound principles of operation”.  This is where most investors come to a grinding halt and with good reason.  Survey the financial landscape and you will be bombarded with a plethora of investment vehicles including stocks, bonds, options, futures, forex, treasuries, municipals and so forth.  Not only is it a challenge to figure out where to begin but, within each choice, the challenge is to figure out what system to apply!  So how do you choose?

Follow those that have successfully traversed the rugged terrain already!  Even the man considered to be the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, had a mentor!  At PSW, we love to educate as well as enrich.  In numerous comments and articles, Phil expounds “sound principles of operation”, meaning a system of trading that has consistently worked for him.  The reason the system has been successful is it evolves with the market!  Although this is a simple concept most fail to trade this way.  Most investors simply sell losing positions and suffer from emotional trading.  In contrast, the approach Phil and I take is to modify our positions as necessary to account for changing trends or unexpected surprises.  We had a great conversation recently about how so many will simply “give up” on a position when in reality there is just no need.  With a little patience, positions can often be turned around and virtual portfolios made profitable.

While the goal of the short-term virtual portfolio is often to make attractive gains over the short-term, Phil’s contingency should a position move against him is to offset an unexpected trend with appropriate options in order to salvage a trade.  Irrespective of what happens then, he knows that his year will be a good one if he knows how to “stay with a trade” and turn it into a successful one – or at least get his original capital back!  Where most give up on trades that move in the wrong direction, Phil and I both fight for our profits!   Each strategy  applied can ‘morph’ into another strategy to take advantage of changing trends or changing expectations.

So with items 1 & 2 covered, how do we as investors succeed in the realm of “firmness of character”?  Even investors that have a system of trading can fall victim to a failure to follow through as originally planned.  This is no surprise at all!  The media will constantly engage in the Hamlet-esque vacillation of “To Be or Not To Be” – “Will the stock market rise or will it fall?”   

I challenge you to count over the course of just 20 minutes on CNBC how many times they segue with a question such as “So what is going to happen, is this good or bad for the economy?” or “Should you buy or sell stocks now?” or “Which way is the market heading?”  The more we hear, the easier it is for all of us to be persuaded to one point of view today and something completely contrary tomorrow.  The solution is to “think for yourself”.  Know why you got into a trade and stick with your original premise unless a trigger has been pulled to tell you that you should be taking action to optimize some other trend.

If you can answer the following questions in the affirmative before trade entry, you are beyond most investors and your annualized returns should reflect your progress.

 Did I plan my trade?

Do I have a clear goal of when to take profits?

Do I know what I will do if the stock moves against me?

Do I know how far the stock needs to move in both directions before I take action?

Am I entering this trade calmly (remember emotional trading is dangerous trading!)?

 

Now that you have your checklist, post it where you can see it until it is internalized.  It won’t take long at all and when it is internalized it should be the catalyst to greater success.

Have a fantastic week!

OptionSage

Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments


  1. Demetrius Michael

    Well done Op. I really like your writting, I find it very useful and well thought out!

  2. OptionSage

    Thanks so much DM! Much appreciated!

  3. irished

    Words of wisdom from a sage. Thank you.
    Goodnight. See you bright and early tomorrow.

  4. raffy

    OptionSage

    All your articles are so well crafted and have such a deep understanding of the average trader!. When you make this comment
    “Even the man considered to be the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, had a mentor! At PSW, we love to educate as well as enrich.”

    We have indeed found such a mentor, one who encourages us to think for ourselves but ready to help.

    You said about you and Phil
    “We had a great conversation recently about how so many will simply “give up” on a position when in reality there is just no need. With a little patience, positions can often be turned around and portfolios made profitable.”

    I was one of those people who did not even know how positions could be turned round, only earlier this evening I asked Phil and he suggested a strategy (how many mentors are this easy to reach) that will hopefully help.

    I look forward to reading more of your articles, I have signed up for another year and by then I will have learned patience and skill. Phil and you will keep me on the right path to fun and profit! Thanks.

  5. Jeff

    Great article Sage--

    Newbie question here since the market is closed…
    Planning on purchasing Palm puts ahead of earnings monday.
    In comparing implied vols (which I understand as being an options “PE” or price) I found the Oct 15p to have and IV of 61% which is far above their one month average of 37%. Does this mean that this put option is expensive relative to its history? Second, the Nov 15p have an IV of 51%—wouldn’t that be a better deal? any opinions/ insight are greatly appreciated.
    Jeff

  6. ramana

    Asia Markets : Monday, October 1, 2007

    (The following is from WSJ; please cross check with other sources to confirm.)

    Japan*

    16845.96
    60.27
    0.36%

    Hong Kong*

    27142.47
    77.32
    0.29%

    DJ Shanghai*

    562.08
    14.17
    2.59%

    S.Korea*

    1962.67
    16.19
    0.83%

    India

    17369.88
    78.78
    0.46%

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

  7. ramana

    Asia – Markets in Hong Kong and China are closed for a holiday. Hong Kong reopens Tuesday while Chinese markets resume trading October 8

  8. ramana

    Dollar Lifts Exporters,Blunting Housing Bust – http://tinyurl.com/32hs69
    (From WSJ)
    Gary Bence sees the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar every time he wheels his truck into the sprawling rail terminal in this gritty Pittsburgh suburb.
    As a driver for AGX Intermodal, which hauls containers for local companies here, the 57-year-old has seen a surge in recent months of boxes filled with locally made products headed to customers overseas. Of about 15 loads he handles each week, 10 are for export, he estimates, including a shipment of mineral oil bound for Bolivia that he dispatched earlier in the day.

    Asia & Euro Markets

    Asian Markets Advance, Japan and South Korea Close Higher – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21070543
    Asian markets advanced in the afternoon session Monday. Japan and South Korea both finished higher but Australia gave up earlier gains to close just a touch lower. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.8% to a two-month closing peak, helped by POSCO after the steel maker announced a hike in stainless steel prices, while brokers rallied on expectations of positive quarterly earnings. Australian shares shed early gains finish lower, as Westfield Group and other firms with big overseas earnings fell on worries that a rise in the Australian dollar to 18-year highs would erode the value of overseas profits. However, a jump in bullion prices lifted shares in gold miners such as Newcrest Mining, capping losses in the market. China-based companies like Cosco and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding surged to record highs, extending gains led by investor speculation that these stocks will be candidates for soon-to-be launched China funds.

    European Stocks Are Mixed after UBS Profit Warning – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21077743
    European stocks covered some of their early losses Monday, but remained cautious after Swiss wealth manager UBS warned that poor conditions in the U.S. subprime lending market cost it $3.5 billion. Shares in UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, were 0.9% lower after the company said it would lose 600 million ($513 million) to 800 million Swiss francs and added it would cut 1,500 jobs in its investment bank, including top executive Huw Jenkins.
    Credit Suisse also said its bottom line was hurt by the credit crunch, but still predicted a profitable quarter. Shares of Credit Suisse fell 0.4%.

    UBS to Write Down $3.42 Billion Due to Credit Woes – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21071969
    UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, unveiled $3.4 billion in losses, swept out senior managers and slashed jobs in one of the biggest casualties yet worldwide from the credit crunch. UBS said on Monday it would write down 4 billion Swiss francs ($3.42 billion) in losses in its fixed income portfolio and elsewhere, resulting in a third-quarter loss of 600-800 million Swiss francs, its first quarterly loss in nine years.

    Oil, Metals & Currencies

    Euro comes off fresh-all time high against dollar after in-line PMI – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21078231/for/cnbc
    The euro was off a fresh all-time high against the dollar after an in-line manufacturing survey, with last week’s soft US data continuing to weigh on the greenback. The Purchasing Managers’ manufacturing index for the 13-nation single currency area confirmed the earlier flash estimate reading of 53.2, down from 54.3 in August. This was in-line with analyst expectations and suggested that business sentiment is starting to wane, pushing the euro away from the all-time high of 1.4282 usd it hit in overnight Asian trade. The main focus in the euro zone this week will be on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. Analysts expect the ECB to remain on hold – however close attention will be on the subsequent press conference to see if the tightening bias remains in-tact.

    Oil Prices Rebound in Asian Trading – http://www.cnbc.com/id/5990617/for/cnbc
    Oil prices rebounded Monday in Asia, bouncing back from a flurry of late selling Friday that came on concerns oil market fundamentals do not support recent high prices. Light, sweet crude for November delivery gained 24 cents to US$81.90 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell US$1.22 to settle at US$81.66 a barrel Friday, ending last week’s rally to near record levels.

    Gold rises to new 28 year high, platinum nears all time record – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21078341/site/14081545/for/cnbc/
    Gold rose to its highest level in almost 28 years, extending last week’s record peaks, as the dollar plunged to yet another all time low against the euro.
    The dollar weakness, combined with tightening fundamentals, also helped platinum rise to within sight of its all time record high set last November, although the metal has since receded strongly. Precious metals traders were keeping a close eye on the languishing dollar, which was quoted earlier at above 1.4280 usd against the euro, its lowest ever level. Elsewhere, platinum rose to 1,932.50 usd an ounce, its highest point this year and only a few dollars short of last November’s all time record high of 1,395 usd an ounce.

    London Metal Exchange inventory as of Monday, October 1: Copper down 100 at 130,675 tonnes Lead up 400 at 22,550 tonnes Nickel up 492 tonnes at 32,934 tonnes Aluminium down 1,225 tonnes at 937,400 tonnes Tin up 165 tonnes at 13,990 tonnes Zinc down 500 tonnes at 60,850 tonnes

  9. OptionSage

    Thanks IrishEd and raffy – your comments really mean so much to both me and Phil! Thank you SO much!

    Jeff – yes the shorter term options are often the most inflated and hence lose the most if and when the stock doesn’t move as expected at earnings. The Novemeber options may lose less from an implied volatility standpoint and will also maintain more time value and are usually preferrable (unless you are gambling in which case the cheaper October’s are preferred — personally not a big fan of gambling though :-)

  10. Andy

    All, this interesting note on UBS’ loss of $3.5bn on subprime losses: All, note this article – UBS writing of $3.5bn on subprime losses:
    http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7021529.stm

    Sage, thanks for your very good article. I relish them when they are published. My own experience has been modeled very much from your excellent book and the entries from you, Phil and Happy (and all the other community entries). I think the lessons learned for me in the past month or so, has been:

    1. I usually had no idea why I entered a trade other then hope to see some green – so on the weekends I now spend more time getting to know the companies behind the tickers and develop some opinion about the future, but also to remember the maxim that “every day is a new day”, to not get stuck like a dinosaur.

    2. I never used to have an exit target in G/L terms, this has been a great asset to develop, thanks to you all for this – realizing a loss is always painful, but it is much less painful when you build that into your expectations when you enter the trade and you also build in your acceptable barrier.

    So today when I enter a trade, I add the costs into my xls sheet and I add my max acceptable loss price for the option and my acceptable gain for the option, the biggest lesson learnt is ironically that 10% or 20% gain is still a gain, sounds stupid, but I was not really that conscious of how quickly greed gets the better of you and you keep “hoping” for more and more often than not, what could have been a “nice earner” becomes a flat G/L or sometimes even a negative G/L situation.

    So again many thanks for all the good lessons and directions, they truly do help.

  11. OptionSage

    Andy – a fantastic read! Delighted that you are progressing – this is why Phil and I are so dedicated to developing the education side of this site too. Thanks!

  12. BillBigD

    Phil,
    Can you comment on the WSJ Dollar Lifts Exporters story?

  13. Phil

    Thanks for nice comments guys!

    WSJ – Well of course it does, that’s why we made a Dow folder on Wednesday, there’s 30 exporters to play! I think we’ll see in earnings that domestic companies are in the toilet as people cut back but there will be good “surprises” from exporters, especailly clothing as the fall buying season came right on the dollar collapse so European buyers at trade shows were treated to a 10% discount for the Winter and Spring lines. COH is one I’m expecting to do well, GPS too, despite poor US sales as it’s a marginal purchase for foreigners where 10% would make a difference. COH on the other hand is not price sentitive but it’s the buyers themselves who stock up while things are cheap – I used to run an import/export co and, when you know you order X per month on a fairly steady basis, it pays to play the currency game when there are dips (you wanted the stuff anyway so there’s little harm in making a double order when the exchange favors you).

  14. BillBigD

    Grmn-down $6 in pre-market

  15. cap

    Looking at the NOK acquisition announcement. No wonder they can pay $8 B +. Look at their stock this year … 20 – 38. Nice run.

  16. cap

    RIMM downgraded by one of its biggest pumpers RBC … valuation call; doesn’t see more upside from earnings.

  17. Demetrius Michael

    Maybe we should do a rice play?… The whole grains thing is just hilarious.

  18. MrN

    Warning from C turned premarket futures negative.

  19. Demetrius Michael

    looks like GRMN’s going to 110…. I’m not too sure 115 will hold.

  20. chix0r

    RIMM – RBC downgraded from Top Pick to Outperform but UBS raised their target from $93 to 120.

    RIMM was mentioned in context of accumlating puts with some of our profits. What strike and time frame is suggested for those puts? I was thinking of waiting until after earnings before taking the position, but what do you all think?

  21. windywheel

    thanks very much sage, excellent article as always!

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging

Utilities-0.54 %
 
Aerospace-0.61 %
 
Retail-Wholesale-0.62 %
 
Finance-0.79 %
 
Consumer Staples-1.09 %
 
Medical-1.09 %
 
Consumer Discretionary-1.14 %
 
Business Services-1.14 %
 
Computer and Technology-1.15 %
 
Transportation-1.35 %
 
Multi-Sector Conglomerate-1.40 %
 
Industrial Products-1.60 %
 
Oils-Energy-1.62 %
 
Auto-Tires-Trucks-1.64 %
 
Construction-1.74 %
 
Basic Materials-1.90 %