Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for October, 2007
« Older Entries

Spooky Federal Wrap-Up

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 10:15 pm

The markets were just loving the Fed today!

It was an interesting day overall as we started off the day with a not too scary GDP report that showed 3.9% growth in Q3.  The markets ran with the news but, like all good scares, the report was pretty creepy if you look under the covers:

Government spending jumped 3.7% (this is how our government pumps numbers before an election and this is why Bush is so pissed the Dems won’t give him more money to toss around) - that number on it’s own added 0.7% to the GDP.  Exports added 0.9%, not because the economy got better, but because our dollar is now worth less than the toilet paper we export.  Inventories added 0.4%, that’s stuff sitting around that no one is buying and it’s value is increasing because of inflation - that’s not really good…

Wages were up 0.8% for the month, one would think a 9.6% annual pace of wage increases is inflationary but not our Fed - they don’t believe in the inflationary Boogie Man (or more accurately, they worship at his altar).  Meanwhile our friends at MA were very busy taking candy from strangers and charging them an average of 18.8% interest to do it.  Even at those terrifying rates, credit card receivables are up over 30% from last year with $14.33Bn added in October alone!  "Obviously, the U.S. consumer is under some level of stress. But it is not a severe stress," said chief financial officer Chris McWilton in an interview with The Associated Press. He added that weakness in low-end and middle-range retail spending has been offset by strong spending among the affluent.

A 3% rise in consumer spending (apparently on credit cards) contributed a full point to the GDP but, unfortunately, ALL of that extra money was spent on food and energy - the same food and energy that cost 3% less in the quarter before (but, according to our government, was not inflationary).  So this 1% of our GDP added no jobs, but did push consumers 30% further in debt than they were last year (cue spooky music).  That’s 1% of our GDP spent on inflating necessities, 0.7% spent by Bush on whatever, .09% spent by foreigners taking advantage of a weak dollar (is that sustainable?) and 0.4% added by increased inventories for a grand total of 3% of our 3.9% GDP growth coming from sources of dubious benefit.

Woo hoo - Party on America!  Like I…
continue reading



Posted in Uncategorized | 26 Comments »


Wednesday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 7:29 pm

October 31st, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink   edit

Very quite this morning, everyone must be checking out the portfolios. I hope that was worthwhile for you guys but I figure it’s better than going over every position one by one when everyone needs to position ahead of the fed.

I’m not buying this rally right now, I’m just not seeing the overall strength and the SOX are already failing.

DRYS is making a huge comeback but it was a Cramer pump last night. He told his viewers to DD so I’m not putting too much stock in it (but I sold $130 puts against my remianing positions). If they can’t take out $115 with authority, they’ve got big problems.

POT is moving down, I like the $115 puts as a mo play, XXX

October 31st, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink   edit

Sorry that was $3

October 31st, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink   edit

$10/25KP - Took out LVS $135 caller at $5.50 (couldn’t turn that down). Will sell $130 calls later, hoping for a nice bounce. WYNN puts are cashed out.

October 31st, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink   edit

NEM - woo hoo on this move! No, they have a long way to go up and that makes all gold a BUYBUYBUY as my premise is intact and they are just minting money at this point (in retrospect, isn’t that kind of obvious?).

I’m back in them with the Jan $50s, now $2.80 and I’ll sell the Nov $50s or whatever when and if it turns. XXX

October 31st, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink   edit

I like the GOLD Jun $40s at $4.35, we can sell the current $40s for about a buck or more later.

October 31st, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink   edit

SPWR - took profits on that too early but I had CY and it seemed redundant. Oh yeah, and FSLR..

Holy crap! Chicago PMI report was 49.7 - that’s contraction!!! First time since February (when we crashed): http://www.econstats.com/rt_chi_pmi.htm

Construction spending up .3% but August was revised to down .2% from positive so these numbers are total BS.

October 31st, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink   edit

Boeing Buddy BEAV is breaking ATH.

GOOG $703! DELL cranking.

BWLD - I feel bad, I never took it because it was so weak looking into the close but let me know what you have and we’ll see if we can fix it.

Dow strangle turns into a mattress play whichever direction we go. Right now the best new buy is the $138…
continue reading



Posted in Portfolio Moves | No Comments »


Which Way Wednesday? Fed Edition!

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 9:16 am

OK - we did a very extensive portfolio review and I’m miles behind so this will be super quick:

I AM SO GLAD WE HAVE A DOW STRANGLE!

Who know what the heck is going to happen today?  The GDP came in better than expected, the ADP jobs report looked strong, oil is calming down and the pre-markets are popping (but still not back to yesterday’s open).

I wrote a couple of very long comments this morning under yesterday’s post and I strongly advise people read it as they discuss rolling in detail as well as overall strategy,  I always say I will turn them into articles but I never do so thank goodness for K1’s project where we will hopefully salvage some of these!

The Fed absolutely should NOT cut rates today, the economy grew at 3.9% EVEN THOUGH housing was collapsing.  All a rate cut will do is stoke inflation and IT IS THEIR MANDATE TO FIGHT INFLATION, NOT LINE SPECULATOR’S PROFITS!  A rate cut is still considered "in the bag" on the futures market as the governors are under enormous political pressure to deliver a good market into next week’s elections.

All I can say about today is that I took my naked positions off the table yesterday and moved closer to cash.  I’m sure we’ll find something fun to play tomorrow…

 

 

 

 



Posted in Uncategorized | 372 Comments »


The Happy 100

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 9:15 am

This one is off to a very slow start.

We have left this alone pre Fed and will hopefully have more picks once the market sets a direction.  We are glad we covered IBM and sad we covered HXL and we wish we’d covered IMCL when it was much higher.  I have no adjustments on these yet as none are down far enough to warrant a move so let’s see what the day brings:

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AMGN
20 JAN 08 55.00 AMGN CALL (YAAAK) O $ 9,310.00 10/9/2007 $ 8,400.00   22
$ -910.00 -9.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for AMGN
$ -910.00 -9.8 %
HXL
20 JAN 08 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLAX) O $ 5,910.00 9/26/2007 $ 5,900.00   35
$ -10.00 -0.2 %
20 OCT 07 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLJX) O $ 0.00 10/12/2007 $ 990.00 10/19/2007 7
$ 990.00 100 %
20 NOV 07 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLKX) O $ 4,200.00 10/23/2007 $ 2,490.00   8
$ -1,710.00 -68.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for HXL
$ -730.00 -7.2 %
IBM
20 JAN 08 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMAD) O $ 9,190.00 9/6/2007 $ 6,000.00   55
$ -3,190.00 -34.7 %
20 OCT 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 2,410.00 9/10/2007 $ 4,790.00 10/4/2007 24
$ 2,380.00 49.7 %
20 OCT 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMJC) O $ 7,410.00 10/4/2007 $ 6,990.00 10/8/2007 4
$ -420.00 -6.0 %
20 OCT 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 3,810.00 10/8/2007 $ 3,390.00 10/10/2007 2
$ -420.00 -12.4 %
20 OCT 07 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 210.00 10/11/2007 $ 5,690.00 10/17/2007 6
$ 5,480.00 96.3 %
20 OCT 07 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMJC) O $ 0.00 10/17/2007 $ 390.00 10/19/2007 2
$ 390.00 100 %
20 NOV 07 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMKC) O $ 4,100.00 10/19/2007 $ 3,990.00   12
$ -110.00 -2.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for IBM
$ 4,110.00 15.1 %
IMCL
20 JAN 40.00 IMCL CALL (QCIAH) O $ 11,010.00 9/24/2007 $ 10,600.00   37
$ -410.00 -3.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for IMCL
$ -410.00 -3.7 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 2,060.00 3.6 %

 



Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »


Our Stocks

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 9:11 am

Also, how tedious, how dull, yet they are up 50% on the year because I take 10% profits off the table all the time!

My other big booster for this portfolio is my entry system, which is to sell puts of something I want to buy.  The more I want to buy it, the tighter the put I’ll sell but those give me nice bonuses on a regular basis.  If you enter a stock position and you’re already up 2% because you sold puts in order to buy it, that’s a pretty good start!

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
END
500 ENDEAVOUR INTL (END) S $ 1,085.00 6/7/2007 $ 965.00 6/8/2007 1
$ -120.00 -11.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for END
$ -120.00 -11.1 %
FIZZ
5000 National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) S $ 57,410.00 5/1/2007 $ 64,740.00 6/20/2007 50
$ 7,330.00 12.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for FIZZ
$ 7,330.00 12.8 %
FNF
2000 Fidelity National Financial Inc. (FNF) S $ 29,810.00 10/25/2007 $ 31,260.00   6
$ 1,450.00 4.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ 1,450.00 4.9 %
GOOG
6 OCT 600.00 GOOG CALL (GOOJT) O $ 15,010.00 10/8/2007 $ 12,440.00 10/11/2007 3
$ -2,570.00 -20.7 %
10 OCT 07 610.00 GOOG PUT (GOOVB) O $ 0.00 10/11/2007 $ 18,990.00 10/19/2007 8
$ 18,990.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for GOOG
$ 16,420.00 109.4 %
GST
8000 GASTAR EXPLORATION LTD (GST) S $ 14,410.00 4/3/2007 $ 12,640.00   211
$ -1,770.00 -12.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for GST
$ -1,770.00 -12.3 %
KNOT
500 Knot Inc. (The) (KNOT) S $ 8,510.00 4/4/2007 $ 9,990.00 9/21/2007 170
$ 1,480.00 17.4 %
5 JUL 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCGD) O $ 0.00 6/14/2007 $ 65.00 7/20/2007 36
$ 65.00 100 %
5 SEP 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCID) O $ 0.00 8/21/2007 $ 1,090.00 9/21/2007 31
$ 1,090.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for KNOT
$ 2,635.00 31.0 %
MRB
8000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 30,410.00 5/23/2007 $ 36,790.00 9/24/2007 124
$ 6,380.00 21.0 %
3000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 15,610.00 10/19/2007 $ 16,040.00 10/25/2007 6
$ 430.00 2.8 %
10000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 52,010.00 10/19/2007 $ 55,500.00   12
$ 3,490.00 6.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for MRB
$ 10,300.00 10.5 %
MU
5000 Micron Technology Inc. (MU) S $ 47,260.00 5/29/2007 $ 51,750.00   155
$ 4,490.00 9.5 %
50 JUL 13.00 MU CALL (MUGO) O $ 1,760.00 6/20/2007 $ 2,990.00 7/6/2007 16
$ 1,230.00 41.1 %
50 AUG 13.00 MU CALL (MUHO) O $ 0.00 7/6/2007 $ -10.00 8/17/2007 42
$ -10.00 100 %
50 SEP 11.00 MU CALL (MUIM) O $ 0.00 8/22/2007 $ 240.00 9/21/2007 30
$ 240.00 100 %
50 OCT 07 10.00 MU CALL (MUJB) O $ 260.00 9/24/2007 $ 740.00 10/19/2007 25
$ 480.00 64.9 %
50 NOV 07 10.00 MU CALL (MUKB) O $ 1,760.00 10/25/2007 $ 2,240.00 10/29/2007 4
$ 480.00 21.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for MU
$ 6,910.00 13.5 %
NAK
500 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 5,135.00 8/22/2007 $ 5,440.00 8/23/2007 1
$ 305.00 5.9 %
500 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 5,135.00 8/22/2007 $ 5,990.00 9/24/2007 33
$ 855.00 16.7 %
2000 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 23,010.00 10/19/2007 $ 23,990.00 10/30/2007 11
$ 980.00 4.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for NAK
$ 2,140.00 6.4 %
NTE
200 Nam Tai Electronics Inc. (NTE) S $ 2,430.00 5/22/2007 $ 2,436.00 6/20/2007 29
$ 6.00 0.2 %
Total Gain/Loss for NTE
$ 6.00…
continue reading


Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »


The Complex Spreads

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 9:06 am

These are not so complex anymore. 

I took the opportunity to get out of Google into the intial excitement the protfolio is now mainly cash with two huge GOOG and one huge APPL positions remaining.  I’ll be day trading these up and down but I decided that, if I’m going to play more GOOG, I will content myself to use what I have left, I’m not putting in new money at $700 (but I will dive in if they pull back to $620).

The reason I dumped out of Apple and Google was not because I don’t like them anymore, it’s just that I had a sickening amount of paper profits and I know from experience how mad I would be at myself if I blew it.  With the Fed coming up, it just wasn’t worth the risk anymore.

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
20 JAN 150.00 AAPL CALL (VAAAW) O $ 13,610.00 5/10/2007 $ 121,300.00   174
$ 107,690.00 791.3 %
20 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 20,700.00 10/23/2007 $ 21,990.00   8
$ 1,290.00 5.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 108,980.00 317.6 %
AMZN
10 NOV 07 100.00 AMZN PUT (ZQNWY) O $ 12,100.00 10/22/2007 $ 11,890.00   9
$ -210.00 -1.8 %
10 NOV 07 110.00 AMZN CALL (QZNKB) O $ 1,450.00 10/22/2007 $ 100.00   9
$ -1,350.00 -93.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for AMZN
$ -1,560.00 -11.5 %
CROX
10 JAN 10 60.00 CROX CALL (LYPAL) O $ 13,510.00 8/21/2007 $ 30,900.00   71
$ 17,390.00 128.7 %
10 DEC 07 70.00 CROX PUT (CQJXN) O $ 7,010.00 10/17/2007 $ 6,200.00   14
$ -810.00 -11.6 %
10 NOV 07 70.00 CROX PUT (CQJWN) O $ 4,900.00 10/17/2007 $ 6,290.00   14
$ 1,390.00 22.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CROX
$ 17,970.00 70.7 %
DNDN
20 JAN 08 5.00 DNDN CALL (UKOAA) O $ 5,610.00 6/1/2007 $ 4,860.00   152
$ -750.00 -13.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for DNDN
$ -750.00 -13.4 %
GOOG
15 JAN 09 680.00 GOOG CALL (ZPXAP) O $ 34,510.00 9/19/2007 $ 176,850.00   42
$ 142,340.00 412.5 %
20 NOV 07 660.00 GOOG PUT (GOOWL) O $ 65,610.00 10/2/2007 $ 10,200.00   29
$ -55,410.00 -84.5 %
10 MAR 08 620.00 GOOG CALL (GOOCD) O $ 38,510.00 10/8/2007 $ 104,800.00   23
$ 66,290.00 172.1 %
10 NOV 07 680.00 GOOG CALL (GOQKP) O $ 27,200.00 10/30/2007 $ 24,490.00   1
$ -2,710.00 -11.1 %
15 NOV 07 680.00 GOOG CALL (GOQKP) O $ 40,800.00 10/30/2007 $ 36,740.00   1
$ -4,060.00 -11.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for GOOG
$ 146,450.00 70.9 %
SHLD
20 DEC 07 140.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLW) O $ 19,010.00 10/8/2007 $ 14,200.00   23
$ -4,810.00 -25.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for SHLD
$ -4,810.00 -25.3 %
YHOO
10 JAN 27.50 YHOO CALL (VYHAY) O $ 4,360.00 5/17/2007 $ 7,500.00   167
$ 3,140.00 72.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for YHOO
$ 3,140.00 72.0 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 269,420.00 87.2 %

 

…
continue reading



Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »


The Long-Term Portfolio

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 9:00 am

The LTP is based on a different strategy so we expect to have high average gains (in fact, if we aren’t getting high average gains we boot the position).  The average open position here is up 60% and most of them are ‘09 or later so you can imagine what the total gains will be in 6 more months of following this strategy!

We do not rush in and out of positions in the LTP.  If we are up 40% on a caller, we set a 20% (of the profit) trailing stop but we then quickly look to recover with another position, even if we go back to the same guy!  These positions are not meant to be naked BUT, in this particular environment, we have mor open positions in the LTP than the STP because they are insulated by time so I’m willing to chance the Fed.  Even so, the open calls are balanced by the XOM puts (really an STP play as it’s just Jan now) and the QQQQ puts, which are really redundant protection to the STP now so will not let those go below even.

This is a portfolio I will be very proud with if I don’t have to touch it today.  It’s up 312% at the moment and as long as it doesn’t dip below 306% as a group, I’ll be a lot more concerned with my closer positions:

 

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
100 APR 08 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVDO) O $ 114,020.00 7/25/2007 $ 308,000.00   98
$ 193,980.00 170.1 %
10 JAN 10 150.00 AAPL CALL (WAAAJ) O $ 35,010.00 9/6/2007 $ 73,300.00   55
$ 38,290.00 109.4 %
10 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 10,350.00 10/23/2007 $ 10,990.00   8
$ 640.00 5.8 %
100 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 103,500.00 10/24/2007 $ 89,980.00   7
$ -13,520.00 -15.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 219,390.00 83.5 %
AXP
10 JAN 09 55.00 AXP CALL (VAXAK) O $ 9,860.00 9/4/2007 $ 12,700.00   57
$ 2,840.00 28.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for AXP
$ 2,840.00 28.8 %
BA
40 JAN 09 95.00 BA CALL (VBOAS) O $ 50,410.00 9/4/2007 $ 61,600.00   57
$ 11,190.00 22.2 %
40 NOV 07 95.00 BA CALL (BAKS) O $ 14,000.00 10/23/2007 $ 11,990.00   8
$ -2,010.00 -16.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for BA
$ 9,180.00 14.3 %
BIDU
5 MAR 08 330.00 BIDU PUT (BDUOE) O $ 14,460.00 9/18/2007 $ 18,600.00   43
$ 4,140.00 28.6 %
5 NOV 07 330.00 BIDU PUT (BDUWE) O $ 3,050.00 10/25/2007 $ 11,490.00   6
$ 8,440.00 73.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for BIDU
$ 12,580.00 71.8 %
BMY
15 JAN 10 30.00 BMY CALL (WBMAF) O $ 2,860.00 8/21/2007 $ 5,850.00   71
$ 2,990.00 104.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for BMY
$ 2,990.00 104.5 %
BSX
50 JAN 09 15.00 BSX CALL (VSBAC) O $ 10,010.00 8/27/2007 $…
continue reading


Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »


The Short-Term Portfolio

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 8:51 am

There is no way to list out all open and closed positions but these are the open ones.

One thing you should notice about this portfolio, as well as the $10KP and $25KP is the AVERAGE gains.  In the STP, since I work hard to save every position and have a ton of cash, the average gain is 38.7%.  I tend not to leave positions open that are up more than 50% because that is a lot of money! 

In the $10KP the average of all open and closed trades is just 9.7%, yet it doubled in a month.  This is probably the most important thing you can learn about trading.  Like the elephant said (sort of) a win is a win, no matter how small…  In the $25KP our average gain was 12.8%.  The main reason for the differences is - the less cash I have, the faster I take a profit.  Taking profits gives me more cash for next time.  Not taking a profit gives me no cash but looks pretty.  I’ve learned that pretty only gets you so far in life, once you turn 40 people are a lot more interested in the cash!

There are very few uncovered positions left and mainly it’s because they weren’t worth covering so we’re going to just have to go with the flow on these today.  My main plan is to use the mattress plays first and worry about repostitioning individual positions later.  At this point, if my callers get blown into the money - so what?  As long as we don’t lose I’m going to be very happy to wiggle out of the rest but I will have 20% stops on any caller I’m up more than 30% against (ie. before I’m only up 23%).

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
40 NOV 07 200.00 AAPL CALL (APVKT) O $ 8,210.00 10/30/2007 $ 6,560.00   1
$ -1,650.00 -20.1 %
40 NOV 07 195.00 AAPL CALL (APVKS) O $ 11,560.00 10/30/2007 $ 13,990.00   1
$ 2,430.00 17.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 780.00 3.9 %
AIR
20 NOV 07 35.00 AIR PUT (AIRWG) O $ 5,210.00 10/10/2007 $ 6,800.00   21
$ 1,590.00 30.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for AIR
$ 1,590.00 30.5 %
AUY
70 JAN 09 15.00 AUY CALL (VPPAC) O $ 12,250.00 2/23/2007 $ 22,400.00   250
$ 10,150.00 82.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for AUY
$ 10,150.00 82.9 %
BIDU
20 JAN 08 360.00 BIDU PUT (BPJML) O $ 77,870.00 9/12/2007 $ 74,000.00   49
$ -3,870.00 -5.0 %
40 DEC 330.00 BIDU CALL (BDULE) O $ 116,010.00 9/18/2007 $ 238,400.00   43
$ 122,390.00 105.5 %
20 NOV 07 350.00 BIDU PUT (BPJWJ) O $ 23,400.00 10/24/2007 $ 80,490.00   7
$ 57,090.00 70.9 %…
continue reading


Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »


The $25KP

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 8:39 am

Same comments as $10KP which were (since it’s silly to have to look at a different post):

We had a lot of luck on this this week so let’s not blow it!

We need to keep tight stops.  On the spreads, this means pay attention to the profits on your spreads and don’t get out if it starts declining.  We could shut this thing down right now at $23,829 and call it a good quarter so it would be insane to take chances, especially if this represents a significant investment for you.

Obviously we need to watch LVS and TSO closely as we have a lot tied up in each and watch FNF around the Fed because if we don’t get a pop today, that may be it for that position!  It would be nice if UTHR works (currently down $1,165 on paper) but if get through LVS earnings within $5 of my $135 target, we should be in very good shape at the volatility crush destroys our caller.  Rather than buy out our $135 caller ahead of earnings, let’s roll our Dec $140s back to Jan $140s for $2.30.

Additionally, specific to the $25KP, we need to watch that NEM position if it doesn’t come back soon and the Apr MSFT needs to be rolled up to the $35s but we’ll hold off covering them unless they slip below $35.50.  CAKE is tight and we need to keep a tight stop (.75) on the callers in case sentiment changes re the consumer. 

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
CAKE
5 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 1,265.00 10/2/2007 $ 675.00   29
$ -590.00 -46.6 %
15 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 3,815.00 10/2/2007 $ 2,025.00   29
$ -1,790.00 -46.9 %
10 OCT 07 25.00 CAKE CALL (CFQJE) O $ 110.00 10/8/2007 $ 390.00 10/15/2007 7
$ 280.00 71.8 %
15 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 975.00 10/19/2007 $ 2,230.00   12
$ 1,255.00 56.3 %
5 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 325.00 10/29/2007 $ 375.00   2
$ 50.00 13.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for CAKE
$ -795.00 -12.2 %
CSCO
10 NOV 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQKT) O $ 1,210.00 10/4/2007 $ 1,490.00 10/8/2007 4
$ 280.00 23.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CSCO
$ 280.00 23.1 %
CY
10 NOV 30.00 CY CALL (CYKF) O $ 1,310.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,790.00 10/3/2007 8
$ 480.00 36.6 %
Total Gain/Loss for CY
$ 480.00 36.6 %
FLEX
20 JAN 12.50 FLEX CALL (QFLAV) O $ 810.00 10/3/2007 $ 990.00 10/10/2007 7
$ 180.00 22.2 %
Total Gain/Loss for FLEX
$ 180.00 22.2 %
FNF
10 MAR 08 15.00 FNF CALL (FNFCC) O $ 2,410.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,700.00   36
$ -710.00 -29.5 %
10 OCT 17.50 FNF CALL (FNFJW) O $ 0.00 9/28/2007 $ 590.00 10/19/2007 21
$ 590.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ -120.00…
continue reading


Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »


The $10KP

by Phil - October 31st, 2007 8:31 am

We had a lot of luck on this this week so let’s not blow it!

We need to keep tight stops.  On the spreads, this means pay attention to the profits on your spreads and don’t get out if it starts declining.  We could shut this thing down right now at $23,829 and call it a good quarter so it would be insane to take chances, especially if this represents a significant investment for you.

Obviously we need to watch LVS and TSO closely as we have a lot tied up in each and watch FNF around the Fed because if we don’t get a pop today, that may be it for that position!  It would be nice if UTHR works (currently down $1,165 on paper) but if get through LVS earnings within $5 of my $135 target, we should be in very good shape at the volatility crush destroys our caller.  Rather than buy out our $135 caller ahead of earnings, let’s roll our Dec $140s back to Jan $140s for $2.30.

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
CAKE
3 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 759.00 10/2/2007 $ 405.00   29
$ -354.00 -46.6 %
7 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 1,791.00 10/2/2007 $ 945.00   29
$ -846.00 -47.2 %
5 OCT 07 25.00 CAKE CALL (CFQJE) O $ 60.00 10/8/2007 $ 190.00 10/15/2007 7
$ 130.00 68.4 %
7 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 455.00 10/19/2007 $ 1,030.00   12
$ 575.00 55.8 %
3 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 195.00 10/29/2007 $ 225.00   2
$ 30.00 13.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for CAKE
$ -465.00 -14.3 %
CSCO
10 OCT 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQJT) O $ 660.00 9/25/2007 $ 790.00 9/25/2007 0
$ 130.00 19.7 %
10 OCT 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQJT) O $ 660.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,290.00 9/28/2007 3
$ 630.00 95.5 %
10 NOV 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQKT) O $ 1,210.00 10/4/2007 $ 1,490.00 10/8/2007 4
$ 280.00 23.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CSCO
$ 1,040.00 41.1 %
FLEX
10 JAN 12.50 FLEX CALL (QFLAV) O $ 410.00 10/3/2007 $ 510.00 10/10/2007 7
$ 100.00 24.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for FLEX
$ 100.00 24.4 %
FNF
10 MAR 08 15.00 FNF CALL (FNFCC) O $ 2,360.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,700.00   36
$ -660.00 -28.0 %
10 OCT 17.50 FNF CALL (FNFJW) O $ 0.00 9/28/2007 $ 590.00 10/19/2007 21
$ 590.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ -70.00 -3.0 %
HMY
40 NOV 07 12.50 HMY CALL (HMYKV) O $ 1,010.00 10/5/2007 $ 200.00   26
$ -810.00 -80.2 %
40 JAN 08 10.00 HMY CALL (HMYAB) O $ 4,410.00 10/23/2007 $ 6,000.00   8
$ 1,590.00 36.1 %
40 DEC 07 10.00 HMY CALL (HMYLB) O $ 5,600.00 10/23/2007 $ 3,590.00   8
$ -2,010.00 -56.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for HMY
$ -1,230.00 -11.2 %
INFY
10 NOV 07 50.00 INFY CALL (IUNKJ) O $ 2,110.00 10/11/2007 $ 2,490.00 10/29/2007 18
$ 380.00 18.0 %
6 OCT 07 50.00 INFY CALL (IUNJJ) O $ 0.00 10/12/2007 $ 1,070.00 10/19/2007 7
$ 1,070.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for INFY
$…
continue reading


Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »


« Older Entries
 

Phil's Favorites

BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?

February 8th, 2010 10:50 pm

BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?

Courtesy of Mish

Over the weekend I received an email from Irishscot2, a poster on MarketWatch, regarding seasonal adjustments to the unemployment rate. Hi Mish

I believe the seasonal adjustment is no longer valid given that anticipated job creation down the road has not and will not be happening. I expect late spring to reverse the January effect heading into the elections. If so, a perfect political storm brewing because of their models!

Irishscot2

Irishscot2 compared the unadjusted numbers to the seasonally adjusted numbers on a percentage basis. I could not tell much from the raw data he sent, so I asked for his spreadsheet and he gracious...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Early Napkin And Other Thoughts From Art Cashin

February 9th, 2010 8:53 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Dollar Dallies But Stocks Stumble Anyway – For much of Monday’s trading, the dollar rally stalled amid swirling rumors of possible rescue meetings to try to solve the emerging Greek crisis. For a while that allowed oil and gold to rally a bit. It also allowed stocks to churn sideways.

Then in early afternoon, stocks began to sell off. The selling began to accelerate in the final hour. Traders began to rush about trying to find the trigger for the accelerated selling.

They found that the dollar had begun to firm up a bit, but the lack of reaction in the after-markets for gold and oil cast doubt on the dollar as the trigger. There was some buzz that they were reacting to some unspecified comment from Bernanke. A quick search of the newswires could not locate a comment.

In the end, the selling was chalked up to internals and technicals. ...



more from Tyler

Chart School

THE MARKET IS FOLLOWING A SCRIPT YOU CAN PROFIT FROM

February 8th, 2010 10:12 pm

THE MARKET IS FOLLOWING A SCRIPT YOU CAN PROFIT FROM 

Courtesy of David Grandey

All About Trends

 

Is The Market Following A Script? If you ask Elliott it is. From Our Recent Blog: "There is also a good possibility that the whole move down off the January highs traces out ABCDE (5 Waves down before all said and done). But we'll take it a step at a time." The S&P 500 chart below has more of a 3 waves (abc) look to it just like we talked about in advance to be on the lookout for. The only problem was it's prime entry took place in the form of a gap and within minutes traced out the bulk of Thursday's move. But still it's all about trends and it's locked in a downtrend channel. One look at last week's action in the OTC Composite below (remember this area of the...

more from Chart School

Trading Goddess

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 9th February 2009

February 8th, 2010 9:13pm

After dropping from the 1063.75-1064.25 PowerZone just before stocks opened on Monday, the ES was sold on the open and fell to the 1056.25-1055.50 PowerZone.
As stated last night: "if a pullback can hold the
initial support, the up-trends will remain intact and
the market should head back up."
That was reversed and after getting over the 1063.50-1064.00 area the move continued to a 1068.50 high. After a small dip, a 123 top set up from 1068.00 and the ES dropped to the new support at 1064.00-1063.50 zone. A bounce failed at 1067.00 and that was it for the upside. The market rolled over and all of the bounces failed as the ES went trend-down to 1053.00 at the 4pm close for stocks.
The early rally off of a good support area was sold on Monday, and for the second half of the day it was all down hill. After the Friday run-up, that was not impressive for a follow-up. The market is back into oversold status, but for now it looks lik...

more from Goddess

Oxen Group Trades

The Oxen Report: Three, Three, Three: A Trade of the Day, An Overnight Trade of the Day, and a Long Play Too

February 9th, 2010 9:22 am

Hello readers,

I apologize for missing the last few days. I have been really busy with some other projects. So, to make it up to you, I have three picks for today. ...



more from David

The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


Bank of America Bears Buy Puts

February 8th, 2010 4:14 pm

Today’s tickers: BAC, PBR, F, FXI, NXY, KFT, DELL & HPQ

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – Bearish option traders purchased put options on Bank of America today with shares of the firm trading 3% lower to $14.52. The number of put options purchased at the March $14 strike price surpassed existing open interest at that strike, suggesting many investors are bracing for continued near-term share price erosion. Approximately 33,000 puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.59 apiece at the March $14 strike. Investors picking up the put options perhaps anticipate B of A’s share price could slip beneath the effective breakeven point on the trade at $13.41 ahead of March expiration. The 12% increase in the reading of options implied volatility on Bank of America to 43.74% today points to increased fluctuation in the...



more from Andrew

Insider Zone


INSIDER BUYING & SELLING REMAINS BEARISH

February 8th, 2010 7:45 pm

INSIDER BUYING & SELLING REMAINS BEARISH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

After a brief respite last week, insider buying and selling trends returned to their regularly scheduled bearishness.  The recent market dip has not attracted many buyers to the market as total insider buying for the latest week totaled just $10.2MM.   Total selling surged to $490MM from last week’s reading of $250.1MM.

The insider selling and buying trends continue to reflect the low level of confidence that insiders have in the future performance of their own shares.  This has been best reflected in the continuing weak trends in the labor markets and the...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2010

February 7th, 2010 11:43 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

more from OpTrader


February 2010
M T W T F S S
« Jan «-»  
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728


FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

Locations of visitors to this page

As Seen On:




About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Favorites Site >>