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Archive for October, 2007

Spooky Federal Wrap-Up

The markets were just loving the Fed today!

It was an interesting day overall as we started off the day with a not too scary GDP report that showed 3.9% growth in Q3.  The markets ran with the news but, like all good scares, the report was pretty creepy if you look under the covers:

Government spending jumped 3.7% (this is how our government pumps numbers before an election and this is why Bush is so pissed the Dems won’t give him more money to toss around) - that number on it’s own added 0.7% to the GDP.  Exports added 0.9%, not because the economy got better, but because our dollar is now worth less than the toilet paper we export.  Inventories added 0.4%, that’s stuff sitting around that no one is buying and it’s value is increasing because of inflation - that’s not really good…

Wages were up 0.8% for the month, one would think a 9.6% annual pace of wage increases is inflationary but not our Fed - they don’t believe in the inflationary Boogie Man (or more accurately, they worship at his altar).  Meanwhile our friends at MA were very busy taking candy from strangers and charging them an average of 18.8% interest to do it.  Even at those terrifying rates, credit card receivables are up over 30% from last year with $14.33Bn added in October alone!  "Obviously, the U.S. consumer is under some level of stress. But it is not a severe stress," said chief financial officer Chris McWilton in an interview with The Associated Press. He added that weakness in low-end and middle-range retail spending has been offset by strong spending among the affluent.

A 3% rise in consumer spending (apparently on credit cards) contributed a full point to the GDP but, unfortunately, ALL of that extra money was spent on food and energy - the same food and energy that cost 3% less in the quarter before (but, according to our government, was not inflationary).  So this 1% of our GDP added no jobs, but did push consumers 30% further in debt than they were last year (cue spooky music).  That’s 1% of our GDP spent on inflating necessities, 0.7% spent by Bush on whatever, .09% spent by foreigners taking advantage of a weak dollar (is that sustainable?) and 0.4% added by increased inventories for a grand total of 3% of our 3.9% GDP growth coming from sources of dubious benefit.

Woo hoo - Party on America!  Like I…
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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Federal Reserve at Wikinvest



Wednesday Portfolio Moves

October 31st, 2007 at 9:43 am | Permalink   edit

Very quite this morning, everyone must be checking out the portfolios. I hope that was worthwhile for you guys but I figure it’s better than going over every position one by one when everyone needs to position ahead of the fed.

I’m not buying this rally right now, I’m just not seeing the overall strength and the SOX are already failing.

DRYS is making a huge comeback but it was a Cramer pump last night. He told his viewers to DD so I’m not putting too much stock in it (but I sold $130 puts against my remianing positions). If they can’t take out $115 with authority, they’ve got big problems.

POT is moving down, I like the $115 puts as a mo play, XXX

October 31st, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink   edit

Sorry that was $3

October 31st, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink   edit

$10/25KP - Took out LVS $135 caller at $5.50 (couldn’t turn that down). Will sell $130 calls later, hoping for a nice bounce. WYNN puts are cashed out.

October 31st, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink   edit

NEM - woo hoo on this move! No, they have a long way to go up and that makes all gold a BUYBUYBUY as my premise is intact and they are just minting money at this point (in retrospect, isn’t that kind of obvious?).

I’m back in them with the Jan $50s, now $2.80 and I’ll sell the Nov $50s or whatever when and if it turns. XXX

October 31st, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink   edit

I like the GOLD Jun $40s at $4.35, we can sell the current $40s for about a buck or more later.

October 31st, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink   edit

SPWR - took profits on that too early but I had CY and it seemed redundant. Oh yeah, and FSLR..

Holy crap! Chicago PMI report was 49.7 - that’s contraction!!! First time since February (when we crashed): http://www.econstats.com/rt_chi_pmi.htm

Construction spending up .3% but August was revised to down .2% from positive so these numbers are total BS.

October 31st, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink   edit

Boeing Buddy BEAV is breaking ATH.

GOOG $703! DELL cranking.

BWLD - I feel bad, I never took it because it was so weak looking into the close but let me know what you have and we’ll see if we can fix it.

Dow strangle turns into a mattress play whichever direction we go. Right now the best new buy is the $138…
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Which Way Wednesday? Fed Edition!

OK - we did a very extensive portfolio review and I’m miles behind so this will be super quick:

I AM SO GLAD WE HAVE A DOW STRANGLE!

Who know what the heck is going to happen today?  The GDP came in better than expected, the ADP jobs report looked strong, oil is calming down and the pre-markets are popping (but still not back to yesterday’s open).

I wrote a couple of very long comments this morning under yesterday’s post and I strongly advise people read it as they discuss rolling in detail as well as overall strategy,  I always say I will turn them into articles but I never do so thank goodness for K1’s project where we will hopefully salvage some of these!

The Fed absolutely should NOT cut rates today, the economy grew at 3.9% EVEN THOUGH housing was collapsing.  All a rate cut will do is stoke inflation and IT IS THEIR MANDATE TO FIGHT INFLATION, NOT LINE SPECULATOR’S PROFITS!  A rate cut is still considered "in the bag" on the futures market as the governors are under enormous political pressure to deliver a good market into next week’s elections.

All I can say about today is that I took my naked positions off the table yesterday and moved closer to cash.  I’m sure we’ll find something fun to play tomorrow…

 

 

 

 





The Happy 100

This one is off to a very slow start.

We have left this alone pre Fed and will hopefully have more picks once the market sets a direction.  We are glad we covered IBM and sad we covered HXL and we wish we’d covered IMCL when it was much higher.  I have no adjustments on these yet as none are down far enough to warrant a move so let’s see what the day brings:

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AMGN
20 JAN 08 55.00 AMGN CALL (YAAAK) O $ 9,310.00 10/9/2007 $ 8,400.00   22
$ -910.00 -9.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for AMGN
$ -910.00 -9.8 %
HXL
20 JAN 08 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLAX) O $ 5,910.00 9/26/2007 $ 5,900.00   35
$ -10.00 -0.2 %
20 OCT 07 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLJX) O $ 0.00 10/12/2007 $ 990.00 10/19/2007 7
$ 990.00 100 %
20 NOV 07 22.50 HXL CALL (HXLKX) O $ 4,200.00 10/23/2007 $ 2,490.00   8
$ -1,710.00 -68.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for HXL
$ -730.00 -7.2 %
IBM
20 JAN 08 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMAD) O $ 9,190.00 9/6/2007 $ 6,000.00   55
$ -3,190.00 -34.7 %
20 OCT 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 2,410.00 9/10/2007 $ 4,790.00 10/4/2007 24
$ 2,380.00 49.7 %
20 OCT 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMJC) O $ 7,410.00 10/4/2007 $ 6,990.00 10/8/2007 4
$ -420.00 -6.0 %
20 OCT 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 3,810.00 10/8/2007 $ 3,390.00 10/10/2007 2
$ -420.00 -12.4 %
20 OCT 07 120.00 IBM CALL (IBMJD) O $ 210.00 10/11/2007 $ 5,690.00 10/17/2007 6
$ 5,480.00 96.3 %
20 OCT 07 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMJC) O $ 0.00 10/17/2007 $ 390.00 10/19/2007 2
$ 390.00 100 %
20 NOV 07 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMKC) O $ 4,100.00 10/19/2007 $ 3,990.00   12
$ -110.00 -2.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for IBM
$ 4,110.00 15.1 %
IMCL
20 JAN 40.00 IMCL CALL (QCIAH) O $ 11,010.00 9/24/2007 $ 10,600.00   37
$ -410.00 -3.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for IMCL
$ -410.00 -3.7 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 2,060.00 3.6 %

 


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Our Stocks

Also, how tedious, how dull, yet they are up 50% on the year because I take 10% profits off the table all the time!

My other big booster for this portfolio is my entry system, which is to sell puts of something I want to buy.  The more I want to buy it, the tighter the put I’ll sell but those give me nice bonuses on a regular basis.  If you enter a stock position and you’re already up 2% because you sold puts in order to buy it, that’s a pretty good start!

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
END
500 ENDEAVOUR INTL (END) S $ 1,085.00 6/7/2007 $ 965.00 6/8/2007 1
$ -120.00 -11.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for END
$ -120.00 -11.1 %
FIZZ
5000 National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) S $ 57,410.00 5/1/2007 $ 64,740.00 6/20/2007 50
$ 7,330.00 12.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for FIZZ
$ 7,330.00 12.8 %
FNF
2000 Fidelity National Financial Inc. (FNF) S $ 29,810.00 10/25/2007 $ 31,260.00   6
$ 1,450.00 4.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ 1,450.00 4.9 %
GOOG
6 OCT 600.00 GOOG CALL (GOOJT) O $ 15,010.00 10/8/2007 $ 12,440.00 10/11/2007 3
$ -2,570.00 -20.7 %
10 OCT 07 610.00 GOOG PUT (GOOVB) O $ 0.00 10/11/2007 $ 18,990.00 10/19/2007 8
$ 18,990.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for GOOG
$ 16,420.00 109.4 %
GST
8000 GASTAR EXPLORATION LTD (GST) S $ 14,410.00 4/3/2007 $ 12,640.00   211
$ -1,770.00 -12.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for GST
$ -1,770.00 -12.3 %
KNOT
500 Knot Inc. (The) (KNOT) S $ 8,510.00 4/4/2007 $ 9,990.00 9/21/2007 170
$ 1,480.00 17.4 %
5 JUL 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCGD) O $ 0.00 6/14/2007 $ 65.00 7/20/2007 36
$ 65.00 100 %
5 SEP 20.00 KNOT CALL (BQCID) O $ 0.00 8/21/2007 $ 1,090.00 9/21/2007 31
$ 1,090.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for KNOT
$ 2,635.00 31.0 %
MRB
8000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 30,410.00 5/23/2007 $ 36,790.00 9/24/2007 124
$ 6,380.00 21.0 %
3000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 15,610.00 10/19/2007 $ 16,040.00 10/25/2007 6
$ 430.00 2.8 %
10000 METALLICA RESOURCES (MRB) S $ 52,010.00 10/19/2007 $ 55,500.00   12
$ 3,490.00 6.7 %
Total Gain/Loss for MRB
$ 10,300.00 10.5 %
MU
5000 Micron Technology Inc. (MU) S $ 47,260.00 5/29/2007 $ 51,750.00   155
$ 4,490.00 9.5 %
50 JUL 13.00 MU CALL (MUGO) O $ 1,760.00 6/20/2007 $ 2,990.00 7/6/2007 16
$ 1,230.00 41.1 %
50 AUG 13.00 MU CALL (MUHO) O $ 0.00 7/6/2007 $ -10.00 8/17/2007 42
$ -10.00 100 %
50 SEP 11.00 MU CALL (MUIM) O $ 0.00 8/22/2007 $ 240.00 9/21/2007 30
$ 240.00 100 %
50 OCT 07 10.00 MU CALL (MUJB) O $ 260.00 9/24/2007 $ 740.00 10/19/2007 25
$ 480.00 64.9 %
50 NOV 07 10.00 MU CALL (MUKB) O $ 1,760.00 10/25/2007 $ 2,240.00 10/29/2007 4
$ 480.00 21.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for MU
$ 6,910.00 13.5 %
NAK
500 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 5,135.00 8/22/2007 $ 5,440.00 8/23/2007 1
$ 305.00 5.9 %
500 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 5,135.00 8/22/2007 $ 5,990.00 9/24/2007 33
$ 855.00 16.7 %
2000 Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK) S $ 23,010.00 10/19/2007 $ 23,990.00 10/30/2007 11
$ 980.00 4.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for NAK
$ 2,140.00 6.4 %
NTE
200 Nam Tai Electronics Inc. (NTE) S $ 2,430.00 5/22/2007 $ 2,436.00 6/20/2007 29
$ 6.00 0.2 %
Total Gain/Loss for NTE
$ 6.00…
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The Complex Spreads

These are not so complex anymore

I took the opportunity to get out of Google into the intial excitement the protfolio is now mainly cash with two huge GOOG and one huge APPL positions remaining.  I’ll be day trading these up and down but I decided that, if I’m going to play more GOOG, I will content myself to use what I have left, I’m not putting in new money at $700 (but I will dive in if they pull back to $620).

The reason I dumped out of Apple and Google was not because I don’t like them anymore, it’s just that I had a sickening amount of paper profits and I know from experience how mad I would be at myself if I blew it.  With the Fed coming up, it just wasn’t worth the risk anymore.

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
20 JAN 150.00 AAPL CALL (VAAAW) O $ 13,610.00 5/10/2007 $ 121,300.00   174
$ 107,690.00 791.3 %
20 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 20,700.00 10/23/2007 $ 21,990.00   8
$ 1,290.00 5.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 108,980.00 317.6 %
AMZN
10 NOV 07 100.00 AMZN PUT (ZQNWY) O $ 12,100.00 10/22/2007 $ 11,890.00   9
$ -210.00 -1.8 %
10 NOV 07 110.00 AMZN CALL (QZNKB) O $ 1,450.00 10/22/2007 $ 100.00   9
$ -1,350.00 -93.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for AMZN
$ -1,560.00 -11.5 %
CROX
10 JAN 10 60.00 CROX CALL (LYPAL) O $ 13,510.00 8/21/2007 $ 30,900.00   71
$ 17,390.00 128.7 %
10 DEC 07 70.00 CROX PUT (CQJXN) O $ 7,010.00 10/17/2007 $ 6,200.00   14
$ -810.00 -11.6 %
10 NOV 07 70.00 CROX PUT (CQJWN) O $ 4,900.00 10/17/2007 $ 6,290.00   14
$ 1,390.00 22.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CROX
$ 17,970.00 70.7 %
DNDN
20 JAN 08 5.00 DNDN CALL (UKOAA) O $ 5,610.00 6/1/2007 $ 4,860.00   152
$ -750.00 -13.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for DNDN
$ -750.00 -13.4 %
GOOG
15 JAN 09 680.00 GOOG CALL (ZPXAP) O $ 34,510.00 9/19/2007 $ 176,850.00   42
$ 142,340.00 412.5 %
20 NOV 07 660.00 GOOG PUT (GOOWL) O $ 65,610.00 10/2/2007 $ 10,200.00   29
$ -55,410.00 -84.5 %
10 MAR 08 620.00 GOOG CALL (GOOCD) O $ 38,510.00 10/8/2007 $ 104,800.00   23
$ 66,290.00 172.1 %
10 NOV 07 680.00 GOOG CALL (GOQKP) O $ 27,200.00 10/30/2007 $ 24,490.00   1
$ -2,710.00 -11.1 %
15 NOV 07 680.00 GOOG CALL (GOQKP) O $ 40,800.00 10/30/2007 $ 36,740.00   1
$ -4,060.00 -11.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for GOOG
$ 146,450.00 70.9 %
SHLD
20 DEC 07 140.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLW) O $ 19,010.00 10/8/2007 $ 14,200.00   23
$ -4,810.00 -25.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for SHLD
$ -4,810.00 -25.3 %
YHOO
10 JAN 27.50 YHOO CALL (VYHAY) O $ 4,360.00 5/17/2007 $ 7,500.00   167
$ 3,140.00 72.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for YHOO
$ 3,140.00 72.0 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 269,420.00 87.2 %

 



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The Long-Term Portfolio

The LTP is based on a different strategy so we expect to have high average gains (in fact, if we aren’t getting high average gains we boot the position).  The average open position here is up 60% and most of them are ‘09 or later so you can imagine what the total gains will be in 6 more months of following this strategy!

We do not rush in and out of positions in the LTP.  If we are up 40% on a caller, we set a 20% (of the profit) trailing stop but we then quickly look to recover with another position, even if we go back to the same guy!  These positions are not meant to be naked BUT, in this particular environment, we have mor open positions in the LTP than the STP because they are insulated by time so I’m willing to chance the Fed.  Even so, the open calls are balanced by the XOM puts (really an STP play as it’s just Jan now) and the QQQQ puts, which are really redundant protection to the STP now so will not let those go below even.

This is a portfolio I will be very proud with if I don’t have to touch it today.  It’s up 312% at the moment and as long as it doesn’t dip below 306% as a group, I’ll be a lot more concerned with my closer positions:

 

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
100 APR 08 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVDO) O $ 114,020.00 7/25/2007 $ 308,000.00   98
$ 193,980.00 170.1 %
10 JAN 10 150.00 AAPL CALL (WAAAJ) O $ 35,010.00 9/6/2007 $ 73,300.00   55
$ 38,290.00 109.4 %
10 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 10,350.00 10/23/2007 $ 10,990.00   8
$ 640.00 5.8 %
100 NOV 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVKP) O $ 103,500.00 10/24/2007 $ 89,980.00   7
$ -13,520.00 -15.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 219,390.00 83.5 %
AXP
10 JAN 09 55.00 AXP CALL (VAXAK) O $ 9,860.00 9/4/2007 $ 12,700.00   57
$ 2,840.00 28.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for AXP
$ 2,840.00 28.8 %
BA
40 JAN 09 95.00 BA CALL (VBOAS) O $ 50,410.00 9/4/2007 $ 61,600.00   57
$ 11,190.00 22.2 %
40 NOV 07 95.00 BA CALL (BAKS) O $ 14,000.00 10/23/2007 $ 11,990.00   8
$ -2,010.00 -16.8 %
Total Gain/Loss for BA
$ 9,180.00 14.3 %
BIDU
5 MAR 08 330.00 BIDU PUT (BDUOE) O $ 14,460.00 9/18/2007 $ 18,600.00   43
$ 4,140.00 28.6 %
5 NOV 07 330.00 BIDU PUT (BDUWE) O $ 3,050.00 10/25/2007 $ 11,490.00   6
$ 8,440.00 73.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for BIDU
$ 12,580.00 71.8 %
BMY
15 JAN 10 30.00 BMY CALL (WBMAF) O $ 2,860.00 8/21/2007 $ 5,850.00   71
$ 2,990.00 104.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for BMY
$ 2,990.00 104.5 %
BSX
50 JAN 09 15.00 BSX CALL (VSBAC) O $ 10,010.00 8/27/2007 $…
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The Short-Term Portfolio

There is no way to list out all open and closed positions but these are the open ones.

One thing you should notice about this portfolio, as well as the $10KP and $25KP is the AVERAGE gains.  In the STP, since I work hard to save every position and have a ton of cash, the average gain is 38.7%.  I tend not to leave positions open that are up more than 50% because that is a lot of money! 

In the $10KP the average of all open and closed trades is just 9.7%, yet it doubled in a month.  This is probably the most important thing you can learn about trading.  Like the elephant said (sort of) a win is a win, no matter how small…  In the $25KP our average gain was 12.8%.  The main reason for the differences is - the less cash I have, the faster I take a profit.  Taking profits gives me more cash for next time.  Not taking a profit gives me no cash but looks pretty.  I’ve learned that pretty only gets you so far in life, once you turn 40 people are a lot more interested in the cash!

There are very few uncovered positions left and mainly it’s because they weren’t worth covering so we’re going to just have to go with the flow on these today.  My main plan is to use the mattress plays first and worry about repostitioning individual positions later.  At this point, if my callers get blown into the money - so what?  As long as we don’t lose I’m going to be very happy to wiggle out of the rest but I will have 20% stops on any caller I’m up more than 30% against (ie. before I’m only up 23%).

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
40 NOV 07 200.00 AAPL CALL (APVKT) O $ 8,210.00 10/30/2007 $ 6,560.00   1
$ -1,650.00 -20.1 %
40 NOV 07 195.00 AAPL CALL (APVKS) O $ 11,560.00 10/30/2007 $ 13,990.00   1
$ 2,430.00 17.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for AAPL
$ 780.00 3.9 %
AIR
20 NOV 07 35.00 AIR PUT (AIRWG) O $ 5,210.00 10/10/2007 $ 6,800.00   21
$ 1,590.00 30.5 %
Total Gain/Loss for AIR
$ 1,590.00 30.5 %
AUY
70 JAN 09 15.00 AUY CALL (VPPAC) O $ 12,250.00 2/23/2007 $ 22,400.00   250
$ 10,150.00 82.9 %
Total Gain/Loss for AUY
$ 10,150.00 82.9 %
BIDU
20 JAN 08 360.00 BIDU PUT (BPJML) O $ 77,870.00 9/12/2007 $ 74,000.00   49
$ -3,870.00 -5.0 %
40 DEC 330.00 BIDU CALL (BDULE) O $ 116,010.00 9/18/2007 $ 238,400.00   43
$ 122,390.00 105.5 %
20 NOV 07 350.00 BIDU PUT (BPJWJ) O $ 23,400.00 10/24/2007 $ 80,490.00   7
$ 57,090.00 70.9 %…
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The $25KP

Same comments as $10KP which were (since it’s silly to have to look at a different post):

We had a lot of luck on this this week so let’s not blow it!

We need to keep tight stops.  On the spreads, this means pay attention to the profits on your spreads and don’t get out if it starts declining.  We could shut this thing down right now at $23,829 and call it a good quarter so it would be insane to take chances, especially if this represents a significant investment for you.

Obviously we need to watch LVS and TSO closely as we have a lot tied up in each and watch FNF around the Fed because if we don’t get a pop today, that may be it for that position!  It would be nice if UTHR works (currently down $1,165 on paper) but if get through LVS earnings within $5 of my $135 target, we should be in very good shape at the volatility crush destroys our caller.  Rather than buy out our $135 caller ahead of earnings, let’s roll our Dec $140s back to Jan $140s for $2.30.

Additionally, specific to the $25KP, we need to watch that NEM position if it doesn’t come back soon and the Apr MSFT needs to be rolled up to the $35s but we’ll hold off covering them unless they slip below $35.50.  CAKE is tight and we need to keep a tight stop (.75) on the callers in case sentiment changes re the consumer

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
CAKE
5 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 1,265.00 10/2/2007 $ 675.00   29
$ -590.00 -46.6 %
15 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 3,815.00 10/2/2007 $ 2,025.00   29
$ -1,790.00 -46.9 %
10 OCT 07 25.00 CAKE CALL (CFQJE) O $ 110.00 10/8/2007 $ 390.00 10/15/2007 7
$ 280.00 71.8 %
15 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 975.00 10/19/2007 $ 2,230.00   12
$ 1,255.00 56.3 %
5 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 325.00 10/29/2007 $ 375.00   2
$ 50.00 13.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for CAKE
$ -795.00 -12.2 %
CSCO
10 NOV 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQKT) O $ 1,210.00 10/4/2007 $ 1,490.00 10/8/2007 4
$ 280.00 23.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CSCO
$ 280.00 23.1 %
CY
10 NOV 30.00 CY CALL (CYKF) O $ 1,310.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,790.00 10/3/2007 8
$ 480.00 36.6 %
Total Gain/Loss for CY
$ 480.00 36.6 %
FLEX
20 JAN 12.50 FLEX CALL (QFLAV) O $ 810.00 10/3/2007 $ 990.00 10/10/2007 7
$ 180.00 22.2 %
Total Gain/Loss for FLEX
$ 180.00 22.2 %
FNF
10 MAR 08 15.00 FNF CALL (FNFCC) O $ 2,410.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,700.00   36
$ -710.00 -29.5 %
10 OCT 17.50 FNF CALL (FNFJW) O $ 0.00 9/28/2007 $ 590.00 10/19/2007 21
$ 590.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ -120.00…
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The $10KP

We had a lot of luck on this this week so let’s not blow it!

We need to keep tight stops.  On the spreads, this means pay attention to the profits on your spreads and don’t get out if it starts declining.  We could shut this thing down right now at $23,829 and call it a good quarter so it would be insane to take chances, especially if this represents a significant investment for you.

Obviously we need to watch LVS and TSO closely as we have a lot tied up in each and watch FNF around the Fed because if we don’t get a pop today, that may be it for that position!  It would be nice if UTHR works (currently down $1,165 on paper) but if get through LVS earnings within $5 of my $135 target, we should be in very good shape at the volatility crush destroys our caller.  Rather than buy out our $135 caller ahead of earnings, let’s roll our Dec $140s back to Jan $140s for $2.30.

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
CAKE
3 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 759.00 10/2/2007 $ 405.00   29
$ -354.00 -46.6 %
7 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) O $ 1,791.00 10/2/2007 $ 945.00   29
$ -846.00 -47.2 %
5 OCT 07 25.00 CAKE CALL (CFQJE) O $ 60.00 10/8/2007 $ 190.00 10/15/2007 7
$ 130.00 68.4 %
7 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 455.00 10/19/2007 $ 1,030.00   12
$ 575.00 55.8 %
3 NOV 07 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQKX) O $ 195.00 10/29/2007 $ 225.00   2
$ 30.00 13.3 %
Total Gain/Loss for CAKE
$ -465.00 -14.3 %
CSCO
10 OCT 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQJT) O $ 660.00 9/25/2007 $ 790.00 9/25/2007 0
$ 130.00 19.7 %
10 OCT 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQJT) O $ 660.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,290.00 9/28/2007 3
$ 630.00 95.5 %
10 NOV 32.50 CSCO CALL (CYQKT) O $ 1,210.00 10/4/2007 $ 1,490.00 10/8/2007 4
$ 280.00 23.1 %
Total Gain/Loss for CSCO
$ 1,040.00 41.1 %
FLEX
10 JAN 12.50 FLEX CALL (QFLAV) O $ 410.00 10/3/2007 $ 510.00 10/10/2007 7
$ 100.00 24.4 %
Total Gain/Loss for FLEX
$ 100.00 24.4 %
FNF
10 MAR 08 15.00 FNF CALL (FNFCC) O $ 2,360.00 9/25/2007 $ 1,700.00   36
$ -660.00 -28.0 %
10 OCT 17.50 FNF CALL (FNFJW) O $ 0.00 9/28/2007 $ 590.00 10/19/2007 21
$ 590.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for FNF
$ -70.00 -3.0 %
HMY
40 NOV 07 12.50 HMY CALL (HMYKV) O $ 1,010.00 10/5/2007 $ 200.00   26
$ -810.00 -80.2 %
40 JAN 08 10.00 HMY CALL (HMYAB) O $ 4,410.00 10/23/2007 $ 6,000.00   8
$ 1,590.00 36.1 %
40 DEC 07 10.00 HMY CALL (HMYLB) O $ 5,600.00 10/23/2007 $ 3,590.00   8
$ -2,010.00 -56.0 %
Total Gain/Loss for HMY
$ -1,230.00 -11.2 %
INFY
10 NOV 07 50.00 INFY CALL (IUNKJ) O $ 2,110.00 10/11/2007 $ 2,490.00 10/29/2007 18
$ 380.00 18.0 %
6 OCT 07 50.00 INFY CALL (IUNJJ) O $ 0.00 10/12/2007 $ 1,070.00 10/19/2007 7
$ 1,070.00 100 %
Total Gain/Loss for INFY
$…
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Phil's Favorites

The Threat to Muddle Through

The Threat to Muddle Through

Courtesy of John Mauldin, at FrontlineThoughts.com

If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don't add up. The fault, dear Brutus...

O Canada

But first, and quickly, and in keeping with the spirit of the recent Olympics in Canada, I want to let my Canadian readers know...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Sprott's Jamie Horvat On "Gold"ilocks And The Three Bears

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Jamie Horvat and Charles Oliver, Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund.

 

...

more from Tyler

Chart School

Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Bears Emboldened By Low CBOE Equity Put to Call Ratio

Courtesy of Bill Luby at Vix and More 

Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.

My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue li...

more from Chart School

Trading Goddess

Options and My Patience Expire Today

Well now we're officially cashed out!


As I always do before options expiration I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we've been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week - I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with this week. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28% - since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year - it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.


You are not supposed to have 64 out of 66 winners in 6 weeks, you are not supposed to make 3/4 of what you anticipate for the year in 6 weeks - that is NOT how the markets are supposed to work! When the ma...



more from Goddess

Oxen Group Trades

The Oxen Report: Five Keys to Fundamental Day Trading

Identifying the Fundamentals

Stocks move under the influence various factors that we can use to identify stocks that are likely to move 3-5% in a single day. Even t...



more from David

The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


Best Buy Option Investors Condone Broker Upgrade in Bullish Action

Today’s tickers: BBY, DNDN, GLD, BAC, AET, BA & NBR

BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest electronics retailer rallied 2% to $41.25 during the trading session after receiving an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs Group where analysts increased BBY’s target share price to $47.00 from $44.00. Options traders employed a few different bullish tactics to position for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration in April. Plain-vanilla call buyers targeted the April $44 strike to purchase 5,100 calls for an average premium of $0.55 apiece. These investors stand ready to accrue profits if Best Buy’s share price increases 8% from the current value to exceed the effective breakeven point on the calls at $44.55 by expirati...



more from Andrew

Insider Zone


Insiders: March to Exit

By Ilene

Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second.  All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not.  Click here to see all the sells.  

Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of March 15th 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

more from OpTrader


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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