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Fantastic Friday Morning

And away we go!

The much anticipated jobs report not only came in 10% better than expected at 110,000 new jobs but the August payroll was revised upwards from -4,000 (which caused the Fed to rush in with a rate cut) to +89,000, that’s a 2,325% adjustment folks!

As I said in last night’s wrap-up, I’m pretty sure these jobs numbers are the product of a random number generator as no human being could possibly miss by this much this consistently.  The fact that we lend any credence to these reports is a total joke but the joke is on us so we may as well laugh along.

This should push us firmly into record territory despite the fact that unemployment was actually UP from 4.6% to 4.7% while average wages were up 4.1%, an inflationary indicator that could just as easily have tanked the markets on the heels of an inflationary rate cut which now looks like a massive overreaction by a Fed that is clearly (as Barry Ritholtz so aptly put it) "Wall Street’s Bitch."

Just remember when Cramer punches his "they know nothing" button that it is clearly he and every other Fed basher that knows nothing as these job numbers and wage report clearly indicate that the Fed was absolutely correct in their assessment that the economy was not in danger of slipping into a recession and that inflation should have been much more of a concern than bailing out Jim’s speculator buddies who had followed his advice all year to BUYBUYBUY anything that moved based on his "if the stock is at $80, it’s going to $100 and if the stock is at $100, it’s going to $120" premise.  This is the same ridiculous bubble hype that bankrupted millions of investors in the early 90s and the Hypemiester General knows that sustaining a bubble like this requires a constant supply of new capital in order for his pals to get out at the top.

OK, that’s enough of that, time to switch off our brains and enjoy the rally!

President Bush will come on TV at 9:55 to speak about the economy, this is incredible timing as he scheduled this conference well in advance of the jobs report and didn’t schedule any such conversation following last month’s dreadful numbers so bravo to the President for his excellent sense of timing…  Of the 110,000 net jobs added, 143,000 were service sector jobs – as I said on Wednesday, this is apropos as I cautioned that the whole dip was an orchestrated move by the funds to shake out retail shareholders before today’s big move and titled the post "Did You Want Fries With That Shake?" so congratulations to the 143,000 people who have earned the right to earn that minimum wage and let’s make sure that we, like our President, pretend that 32,000 high-paying construction and manufacturing jobs weren’t lost.

So Asia was up overnight with the Hang Seng grabbing back 857 points in one mighty session, almost as if they knew the US markets would take off today.  The Nikkei was flat on continued dollar/yen concerns as BOJ Governor Iwata warned that the downturn in the U.S. economy from the stalled housing market and the subprime-loan tumult could hurt Japan’s economy, but not enough to force the central bank to change its outlook.  Mr. Iwata said adjustments in the U.S. economy, including the housing market, would likely intensify through mid-2008. But even if the U.S. economic slowdown cuts into Japan’s exports, the drop can be made up by exports to countries such as China, India and Russia, he said. The government expects that Japanese industrial production rose 2.3% in the third quarter, after rising 0.2% in the second.

Europe is on the march this morning with strong gains across the board and we are in very bullish territory on the big chart.  UK house prices fell half a point and the financial markets have tightened credit standards and will tighten further according to the ECB  in a move that "most likely reflects the worsening of global credit market conditions."  Still investors choose to party on.  There’s nothing inherently wrong with bubbles, we loved playing with them as kids so let’s enjoy this one while we can!

GS added RIMM to their focus list so we will be selling into that excitement and I’ll have to cut this morning’s post short so we can strategize on the member board.  We will certainly be covering our gains into the weekend but this should be one exciting day overall!

Have a great weekend,

- Phil


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  1. Demetrius Michael

    Happy Friday

  2. rcha

    Hey where is everyone?

  3. lindsay

    whereis everyone?
    yev- loved your post

  4. Jonathan Parker

    GOOG! six-hundred, six-hundred (chant) let’s get there today…

  5. Phil

    Good morning!

    Best play with RIMM is to sell our calls into the rally and wait for a pullback but better make sure one is coming first!

  6. Demetrius Michael

    Some people really hate IBM eh?

  7. cbp4

    I’m here, and I came to play.

  8. Matrix

    wow, S&P quickly approaching 1555, getting into 1557 territory would be huge!!

  9. Phil

    Rolled RIMM $110 calls I own to Nov $115s for $1 to prevent my loss but keep a cover. XXX

  10. Demetrius Michael

    Lol what luck, had Google yesterday, took it out my stops.. Didn’t want to bet on nonfarm today, but I guess I should’ve…

  11. fpremjee

    rimm calls worked great last night…thanks for everyone’s input…

  12. rcha

    Phil, I don’t have any Rimm yet…..buy Nov 115s?

  13. jkman

    phil- HMY still worth grabbing at .35-.4?

  14. Phil

    Bought out putter for $3.25, rolled my puts up to $110 puts for $3.55 for when the Golman sheep get tired of buying. XXX

  15. Phil

    Wow, I so lucked out by going to 2/3 covered on Goog last night!

    Naked sold RIMM $110s at $4.50 as a mo (or loss of mo play)

  16. mrl14

    What’s with these option prices now trading in increments of 1 cent and not 5 cents? I coulda sworn it was also 5 cent increments or higher?

  17. MrN

    BXP went bad wrong!

  18. Demetrius Michael

    Goog – Yah phil, enjoy your profits, enjoy them good… My 2k is just sitting there, doing nothing,

  19. Mr_Sparkle

    Mark,

    What’s a P1?

    I saw you mention THE game tomorrow. Are you an OU or UT alum?

    How’s the course for the White Rock marathon? A girl my wife works with wants to do the 5 person relay but I would have to get my mileage up for that. Wondering if I want to bother. Right now we’re just doing about 5k/day.

  20. Loonie

    Wow, look at spot Gold, V shape recovery…

  21. Demetrius Michael

    TSO – Phil what do you think about the Nov 40 for 8.90?

  22. Bob Cantlay

    K1 – Thanks for all your hard work – wanted to see if you would email me the rest of your “reading assignments.” Have been wanting to go back through everything myself but finding the time has been difficult. Don’t want to miss out on a post here or there and that would get me up to speed much quicker. Either way, thanks for all your effort.

  23. Demetrius Michael

    TSO – nvm

  24. MrN

    VIX down, equities up, gold and silver up? Here comes the inflation train!!!

  25. Bob Cantlay

    K1 – sorry too much going on – email is bcantlay@gmail.com

  26. Optrader

    RIMM-Closed the diagonal. Dday, this opening was just perfect for our plays!

  27. rcha

    Anyone please,
    SHLD Jan 135, ask/bid in high 17′s. Tick at 15.80. Tried to sell, only gives me 15.80. Why is it?

  28. Optrader

    Got some KLAC puts at opening. Also got some PALM puts.

  29. MrN

    Congrats on GSI again – whoever that was!

  30. Mark

    Hey Mr Sparkle – sorry, thought you were quoting The Ticket (sports radio). Sooner alum! 8)

    The White Rock course is pretty great… you end up in the AAC with a ton of people yelling and your name / picture on the jumbo tron. I think you could still do the relay though… It usually goes something like: 12K, 10K, 10K, 5K, 5K. So if you have others who could run the longer distance you could still do one of the shorter legs. It’s a blast, and you’ll become addicted if you start it. I run the Galloway program: http://www.jeffgalloway.com/

  31. greedpeace

    iwm looks weak. gold and oil up. fxy? should i buy the iwm puts now or later? or am i nuts again?

  32. bigduke6

    that sucked the strangle i did yesterday on rimm didnt work. my put option was worth less than what my call option increased. retarded

  33. greedpeace

    if we don’t blast through new highs on the indices, aren’t we doomed?

  34. Jonathan Parker

    An analyst raised his 2008 price target for Google Inc. to $700 Friday on predictions of continued advertising growth.

    Calling Google “one of the best operating companies within our coverage universe,” Bear Stearns analyst Robert S. Peck raised his price target for fiscal 2007 to $625, from a previous $550, and to $700 for fiscal 2008.

    In addition to raising the price target, Peck reiterated his “Outperform” rating on Google’s shares.

    Skyrocketing ad revenue from its online search engine and recently acquired YouTube unit should fuel growth, as the company continues to improve on its search technology and expand its Internet products, Peck said.

    “Google’s efforts in online video, radio and print, have added a layer of value that is absent from its competitor’s portfolio of offerings and which has the potential to yield significant financial rewards,” Peck said.

    Of the 29 analysts covering Google who reported price targets to Thomson Financial, only ThinkEquity Partners previously expected the stock to reach $700 in 2008. Price targets from the remaining 28 fell in the range of $540 to $700, or a median of $600.

    Peck now expects third-quarter profit of $3.88 per share, on revenue of $2.96 billion, up from previous estimates of $3.82, on revenue of $2.86 billion.

  35. greedpeace

    sorry. oil ever so slightly down. i guess i am nuts.

  36. Phil

    HMY – all over the place but they went down on what seems to me to be a very correctable problem in their mine so I still endorse the play at .35 (Nov $12.50s) but we’re only trying to get to .50.

    Penny options – they are experimenting and adding more every quarter.

    BXP is a DD if you are into the speculative puts. VNO too at $2.25 (Nov $110 puts). XXX

    This is why you MUST scale into positions. The fact that we start buying puts motivates people to try to shake us out. If we are scaling in we say “Yah, more puts for less money” but if you are already fully commited you freak out and take a 30% loss.

    DM – I told you NEVER to short GOOG. I do short them all the time but by selling calls, the damn thing is like a play-doh premium factory that just keeps cranking out high V options to sell against longer positions! Here’s the roll spot by the way, $590s are fetching $20, that covers us to $610 – always a good thing! XXX

  37. jeddah62

    GSK – bounced off $54.45 resistance. If it cannot break it, time to cover!

  38. MJ

    got screwed once again on RIMM (luckily no direct puts, only the butterfly) dangerous stock to bet against. Congrats to all who were bullish.
    When they say 15% move, they will try their best to get this done. Upgrades, conviction list, whatever BS.

    Closed the 90puts, 100puts and 100 calls. Hanging on to the 110 calls.

  39. jkman

    Mark- right on man! i just started jeff gallaway on monday

  40. Optrader

    RIMM- This diagonal made much more money than I thought it would as the IV on those Oct’s was almost cut by 1/2. $10K on this trade, should pay for some good fun here this weekend, even with the Euro at $1.40 :)

  41. MrN

    IRBT callers are starting to shrink back nicely!

  42. Phil

    TSO – it’s a good recovery play and you can sell the $50s for .90 and roll down to the current $45s if it heads the wrong way on you.

    FWLT gone wild, new highs, tempting short later.

    Oil not going so hot considering how wonderful life is.

    BIDU up and up and up and up…

    DIA $140 puts at $1.25 as a mo play! XXX

  43. libertarian wackjob

    It’s all about China LFC CHL FXI EWH GSI ACH HNP PGJ YOU NAME IT
    what’s SIRF’s problem?

  44. MrN

    BOBJ – Schaeffer stock popped!

  45. dday97

    Optrader,

    Yes, very good day indeed, I also sold off all my Q calls for a .15 cent gain!!!

    Actually I’m looking at the Dec 106 puts for RIMM right now…just trying not to be too greedy :)

  46. mrl14

    So what kinda gains are we looking for in these CSCO calls. I just picked up 3 Nov 32.50s for $1.25. Figured I start slow on the trades I am familiar with while just sucking in the rest of the information around this site…which is fantastic btw :)

  47. dday97

    Aw heck, took those puts for 8 just for kicks…have tight stops though.

  48. MJ

    FWLT cool, have the Jan 09 150s, up nicely so far. Will get out before next earnings.

  49. dday97

    Let’s see, who’s next on deck…GOOG I believe.

  50. Phil

    SHLD like a little energizer bunny!

    LOL – Bush on tape so he doesn’t screw up…

    Rolling RMBS Oct $17.50s to 2x Nov $20s. Will roll Nov $17.50s to 2x Jan $22.50s. XXX

  51. jkman

    total newbie question but its never been an issue for me before, so i never really looked into it and cant find anything on it
    as far as buying an option and selling the same day, is there any significance behind it? taxes or anything. i briefly recall someone saying that in their account they are not allowed to day trade options. not too sure on what i’m asking but whats the general idea behind it. will it alter my account or taxes in any way? just dont want to be unpleasently surprised one day if i do it

  52. Optrader

    Dday, not sure about the puts. I don’t think I am going to play RIMM anymore today. I hate giving it back when I made so much money so fast and my biggest losses are usually after my biggest wins because I become over confident and greedy. This is a lot of money to make overnight on just one trade. I feel I was lucky to hit it at the max gain. Also, I find RIMM very difficult to trade on direction only, maybe because I don’t know it that much.

  53. MJ

    Dday, thanks for the QQQQ call. Made some $$ of your call.

  54. Optrader

    We have EBAY before GOOG. EBAY Oct 17th and GOOG Oct 18th. I think I want to go for some Gamma scalp, like I talked about yesterday on both of them.
    Maybe do a bullish strangle on GOOG as it has some good momemtum right now.

  55. MJ

    think of buying some longer term YHOO puts.

  56. dday97

    MJ

    I’m glad you did too!!! It was a little shaky at first but with the DD a couple days ago it worked out better than I expected.

  57. doubleclick

    CSCO Nov 32.5 Call +CYQKT

    What is the real bid ask? I’m getting this:
    Bid 1.30 Ask 1.27 B/A size 477X501

  58. dday97

    Ah, EBAY, forgot about them.

    Puts. I hear you Optrader. I got in for just a little…couldn’t resist. I’ll also have a quick trigger if it starts going south on me. I’ll give it .20-.30 cent leeway right now and see how it works out, I figure at most I’ll give back 500 which is a very small fraction of what I made on it.

  59. cbp4

    FWLT is absolutely insane. Of course, i’m on the wrong side of it so I’m a moron.

  60. legh cathey

    Is there a play in PENN? It has a takeover price out there.

  61. Phil

    On the whole, I’d say not making new highs would be bad. Let’s make sure we are covered going into the weekend, worst comes to worst we take them off on Monday and enjoy the next 300 points but covering ahead of new highs is usually a good idea. XXX

    On an intraday basis, certainly take big Oct/Nov winners off the table if we get a pullback, again, lots of fun things we can do with cash next week. XXX

    Cool move Optrader, thanks for the idea yesterday, was a great pair to the butterfly, which leaned more bearish.

    QQQQ puts are a nice weekend play too, let’s keep an eye out for tech weakness (AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, AMZN) developing later. But I will start with some $52 puts at .55 for a mo play XXX

  62. dday97

    BIDU puts perhaps…with a 328 stop.

  63. fredrang

    Phil,

    I sold 50 OIH – OCT 210 Calls covered by OCT 215 Calls I bought. Spread at the time last month was $1.00, would you cover these or just let them expire worthless which is what I usually do. I have had the OIH move strongly against me toward opexp. in the past. Just want to get your thinking on this. Current spread is about .05.

  64. greedpeace

    phil, say when on fwlt…

  65. Cap

    Man, those RIMM crooks out in full force w/ a bunch of upgrades.
    Stock met expectations, and is up from $86 3 weeks ago, so let’s keep buying it.

    I should have figured last night to buy some shares after hours that this would happen.

    What a joke.

    And MER announces huge loss coming, so let’s buy that too ! And outlook is uncertain going forward.

    Buy Buy Buy.

    Interesting that indexes are muted so far.

  66. Mr_Sparkle

    Mark,

    I went to UT! The game this weekend should be pretty good. Both teams should be angry after last week. I’ll have to look closer at the relay on White Rock.

  67. MrN

    TRMP is rising from the pit!

  68. workdog3

    Phil, you recommended the NEM Nov 47.50s for $1.40 a couple days ago. You still like an initial entry at $1.25 now that it’s fallen a bit or was that an mo play that has since fizzled?

  69. fredrang

    Sold FSLR 145 Calls covered by 150 Calls. Seemed safe 2 weeks ago. Given the strong move and two weeks to opex, any thoughts on strategy.

  70. bigduke6

    look at the beautiful rounded bottom GS is putting in. just bought more calls

  71. fredrang

    Thanks for PNRA, I sold 20 of the OCT 40 Puts naked in my IRA account for $1700 premium.

  72. Phil

    Taking out BIDU Nov $290 putter with a 40% profit, willing to risk a buck or two rather than give that gain back!

    Buying and selling same day. Well the biggest problem is you get marked as a day trader, that matters if you have a small (under $25K) account so check with your broker. If you are a day trader, put $3K aside for a really annoyed accountant anyway because you’re going to need him!

    EBAY etc earnings – I’m not too keen on making bets until we see next week. If RIMM holds up over the weekend then we have to get fairly bullish on tech but this was a huge upgrade by GS on top of good earnings, if they DIDN’T gain 10% it would be a disaster, the question is whether or not they hold it as that’s a lot of profits to take.

    PENN – too random for me.

    OIH – You’ve made 95% of your maximum spread with 2 weeks to go and you are going to hold $5 worth of margin open in the trade why exactly?

    FWLT – when is now. If you want to short the big boys you have to buy the $135 puts into the surge to $140, at $140.50 you either get out and wait to buy the $140 puts at $144.50 or sell the $145 puts as a mo play with very tight stops to scalp a few quarters while you wait for the turn. I’m just going with the $135 puts for now at $2.6, will DD at $141 and then sell 1/2 the $145 puts if it keeps going up. XXX

  73. chemistry

    Yea, the day trading thing is annoying for those of us under 25K. Open a position, get your stop blown a couple of times, boom, you are a day trader. Hopefully we all wont be under 25k for long :)

  74. mSquare

    Foreign ETFs holding steady as they were before the Job report – especially Europe. Wonder if this means traders didn’t/don’t think the today’s US Jobs report just does not matter to anyone or something else…I thought at least the MER/WM negative news should have affected them some

  75. Bob Cantlay

    Is there really a 25k distinction as far as taxes are concerned or was that just an example? Thank for the input.

  76. alfamike

    Selling some of my 400 Q calls way up here – don’t know how I got so bullish, guess I just kept looking at the surging Q’s weekly charts and the Fed actions and couldn’t see a market double top after all that. Plus I’ve got a few high beta superstars that are doing all right, been drinking the IBD 100 kool aid and it’s working, lol.

    Hey if any of you guys follow the NFL action this guy was 6 for 7 last week and 5 for 6 the week before, good place to check out picks before the weekend games:

    http://contrarycanary.blogspot.com/

    Well peace out and be good!

  77. Phil

    MER with a $5Bn write down – same old, same old I guess…

    TRMP is so undervalued!

    NEM – no that’s a wake up and find the dollar in the toilet kind of play (not to mention anti-terror).

    Wow, lots of buyers coming in now. EXPE on fire. RIMM unstoppable…

    FSLR – you can always roll yourself to Nov, you can pay for it by rolling your caller down if you are brave.

    DIA and Q puts not working, will look for better entry later.

  78. likewoods

    PENN has a buy out deal to close in june i think for $67 its trading for $59.54 if the deal goes thur.

  79. Jonathan Parker

    You guys want a fun stock take a look at MDVN… I’ve been in this stock since it was at $4 last year, for those of you who are MO players, this is your baby… I’m looking at the current $22.5s

  80. dday97

    Q’s going bonkers!

  81. B.B. Queen

    CAKE – time to assign ourselves a caller?

  82. fredrang

    OIH – Normally I take my positions on the spreads and just let them all expire worthless unless one moves against me. That’s one reason I joined to become more aggressive and do more trades.

  83. _fab

    VIX – Wow 16.81 ! Haven’t seen it this low in some time…

  84. albo

    Bought some UNH calls.

  85. Brandon WAlker

    So Phil’s theory suggets…..low vix on up day means rubber band is loosening and we should move up further before it starts to tighten again??

  86. Matrix

    Phil, getting awfully close to 1555. .

  87. Optrader

    AAPL-Breaking up. Maybe $160 today. I sure hope so.

  88. Brian

    Phil, T goes ex-dividend today in the amount of $.35. Is it true that if we are assigned on the short side we will be responsible for the dividend amount? I have the T spread in the $25KP and I’m a little concerned about the assignment risk. Your thoughts?

  89. Phil

    Here goes BXP – let’s see if this causes a general Real Estate sell-off, in which case watch for financials to follow.

    $25K has nothing to do with taxes, it’s the day trading that screws you up. Karmcon wrote a very important article on getting IRS trader status on your tax forms that everyone should read, the deadline may be soon. You can get burned on taxes if you don’t keep good track of your losses to offset gains, there are programs for it but I prefer a good accountant!

    CAKE – nah, we have to let some things run – perhaps if they can’t take $25 and fall below $24.80 then we could sell the $25 calls but I’d set a tight stop on those.

    AAPL going nuts! I can’t believe CROX isn’t at $70 with everyone else having such a party.

    SHLD turning into the play of the month so far.

    VIX – yep, happy vix = continued momentum in this direction….

  90. tesorohaters

    XOM PUMP

  91. chemistry

    Id be interested in that aritcle Karmcon. Dont remember seeing it, if anyone has an idea where it is….

  92. tesorohaters

    phil, what do you think about boeing…major laggard these last few days…bounced very hard off 52WkH

  93. Denis

    IMCL moving back towards $44. What is target price for exit?

  94. 6fingerman

    Trader Tax Status —
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=383
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=384
    .
    For tax purposes, TradeLog is excellent: http://www.armencomp.com/

  95. Demetrius Michael

    IBM in intraday pendany, will break soon. I was shorting IBM from open.

    Google? Who said I was shorting it?… lol I suggested selling it after the pin, but it wouldn’t make much money.. Which it didn’t… But c’mon phil, give me a little more credit, I just sold the calls I owned yesterday… Because it hit my stops.. It was a mistake, but it’s stupid to bet on a nonfarm number… Sure things came out good, but if they came out bad, the google play would bottomed out nicely for a re-entry on my 2k.

  96. fpremjee

    Phil/Board,

    i have usually traded on nakes puts/calls. I have got my status approved for covered calls trading in my IRA acct. This may be a very basic question for all but I need to know how this works. I have 110 shares of AAPL in the acct and I guess I could write 1 call. Scottrade gives the following options: Buy to Open Buy to Close, Sell to Open and Sell to Close. Which one do I select? Also, do I need to have the funds available in my account since I am the one collecting on the option? I have approx. 550 in cash in the account. I apoligize to all if this is too basic but I really would like to get a better idea on how this works for my account (IRA). Thanks in advance.

  97. Cap

    FWLT: Insane & totally manipulated.

    RIMM: Looks like they are ringing the sell bell, at least for now.

  98. MrN

    TRMP had some leftover oct. in .65 out 1.1 – didn’t want to risk it on the slip.

  99. fredrang

    I follow Boeing closely – much concern about what will be said in earnings call about 787 is holding the stock down. Will explode when first flight occurs between November and December. Also, there have been two incidents with the 737-800, Japanese explosion and loose bolts, also crack in fuselage that was repaired and flight control disparities. I don’t see this moving much higher until clarity on 787.

  100. nu2trading

    Phil, regarding :Karmcon wrote a very important article on getting IRS trader status on your tax forms that everyone should read…. Where ca we find thsi article? Thanks
    nu2trading

  101. Brandon WAlker

    nu2 – its about 5 posts above
    fpre – you are selling to open

  102. Matrix

    wow, 1555. .

  103. doubleclick

    Wow. How high is this intraday QQQQ spike gonna go? (How far will it fall?)

  104. jeddah62

    IBM – hopefully it moves today. I just pulled off my cover.

  105. bmb

    Phil

    Do you try to maintain relative % of each position in portfolio? My AAPL % keeps shooting up and I keep trying to reduce it by rolling further out. Its capping my gains some though..

  106. greedpeace

    fwlt. i’m such a good top caller. i’m on a real bad losing streak. i need help….

  107. Jonathan Parker

    SYX!

  108. Phil

    I’m finding it strange/suspicious that the financials are so subdued but I’ll go with the flow for now.

    T – not sure what the rule is there, you need to check with broker but my experience is they tend to work out as you get assigned (if it happens) a short and pick up the premium as the stock dips (usually after a dividend). If your caller exercises you now, he’s buying the stock from you for $42.50 + the .48 of remaining premium – with the stock currently at $41.90, if that costs me a .35 dividend, please assign me a few million!

    That 50.50 mark for SNE sure is hard to get past!

    BA – I always like BA on dips.

    IMCL – there is no exit but if you DD’d you should be getting back to the original amount at a lower basis.

    Fpremjee – happy to discuss the basics on the weekend.

    TRMP – take profits for sure!

    OVTI record highs!

    SBUX getting bought – now that’s a rally!

    OVEN gone mad.

    Sellers have left the building and it’s not even lunch. Europe done in 20 mins, let’s see what sticks.

    GME on the move, I llike them for the Nov $60s at $1.60 XXX

  109. Mark

    6fingerman – thanks for the post. Do you like “The Princess Bride”? ;)

  110. FP

    Brandon, Phil,

    Thanks for your prompt replies..

  111. 6fingerman

    Mark — best movie every made judging by how many times I can watch that and still love it

  112. billbigd

    VIP & MBT up 6%

  113. jkman

    hey completely off topic but whenever i have a financial question i always come to you guys. a couple days ago my girlfriend went and bought a car. she went without me and they totally took advantage of it. so i’m going back over everything and going to fix some stuff, and i want to be prepared for it. most of it i’m good, but she got some extended warranty thing that is a complete waste. i looked over the contract and for cancellation it says:

    for washington state:
    your right to cancel-refund calculation is amended to read: the cancellation processing fee is twenty five dollars. a 10% penalty will be added to a cancellation refund that is not paid within 30 days of the return of the service contract to us.

    can someone who deals with contracts alot interpret that. i hope thats enough info. does it mean i pay 25 buck and send them the contract within 30 days and its cancelled or do i understand it wrong?

  114. Demetrius Michael

    Okay I’m back to reading all your posts.

    SBUX – I would buy this. The company is junk, but I would buy it now. Uptrending nicely.

  115. Seattle

    fpremjee – Sell to Open, 1 call, and use a LIMIT order, not market. And with Schwab, you really need to get an outside quote (Yahoo as an example) for the BID and the ASK. Schwab only provides the BID price on the order review page, which in my experience you can always do better. If the BID/ASK on yahoo for the Nov 150 is 15.20/15.4 for example, Schwab will only quote you the 15.20 price. But if you enter a limit to sell at 15.30 as an example (half way between), you will usually get it, especially on highly liquid options. Also, that Nov 150 is an arbitrary choice just to explain it, not a recommendation.

  116. bigs

    Anybody watch currencies here? The euro gapped down a cent after the report this morning and then retraced it hard. I bought in at 1.406 on the Dec futures. This has been a sweet move. I think we are setting up for another leg up in the euro. Also there was a major selloff in long term bonds at the same time. I think alot of trapped money sold the bonds on dollar strength and bailed hard.

  117. Demetrius Michael

    Sbux – The company is not junk*, that was an over-exaggeration. I still buy there…. It’s just not growing as quickly as I wanted them to be… But my friend told me they’re apparently in China which is a big plus in my books.

  118. Optrader

    AAPL-Just sold some Oct $160′s against my Jan $140′s (which have been naked for a while now). Sold them for $3.85, when my January $140′s cost only $26.60. That’s only $2.85 more in premium, for 3 months that includes earnings, the christmas season and Macworld. Phil, if I were you I might use a XXX here, what do you think?

  119. bigs

    jkman – where in washington do you live? I live in Seattle. It looks like there may be a few of us.

    -Brian

  120. mrl14

    jeez look at SHLD go. I am just holding onto a few shares around $173 so this is a nice lift but any idea why? Is it just because some big investor bought in?

  121. jkman

    bigs- i’m down in puyallup

  122. Optrader

    Of course, that’s if you are bullish Apple as you’ll get a positive delta. If you are not at this point you can always add some puts.

  123. Phil

    Holy cow am I glad we got out of PTR and FXI puts!!!

    Dollar down to 78.25, seems like the wrong way to me but thinking is definitely not a good plan in this market.

    Relative % – no, I let a winner run but when I see a big number like that I do tend to be more likely to stop at least half out because — it isn’t really a gain until you cash it!

    FWLT – scaling, scaling scaling! Holy cow, I got some at $2.75 and more at $2 and now I’ll get half out at $2.40 so I’m in with a lower basis than I planned on my initial entry. If it goes back to $2 I’ll DD again and then get 1/2 out at $2.20

    C doing very well.

    Oil selling off during all this (trying to sneak out the back door while no one is looking).

    $25KP notes:

    FLEX is flying!
    JPM, now the rolled $47.50s are up 60%!
    MTB – looking good
    NEM – not worried, they are disaster protection
    PFE – let’s sell the rest of the $25s for .75 as we could use some cash.
    SYX – let’s sell the $22.50s for .60 for weekend protection (stop if we break $22.50)
    YRCW – too risky – lets get out at $2.60

  124. bmb

    Opt

    Nov premiums are a lot higher cuz earnings is after Oct expiry. I have 160 covers on my rolled Jans, but i am going to switch to Nov the day before earnings for IV play

  125. nu2trading

    Brandon Walker- thanks for reply re Krmcon- found the article. Thanks again

  126. bmb

    Phil

    That’s what i figured. I cashed out some (was over 50% of my entire folio at one point) a few days ago. Probably going to regret it..:)

  127. B.B. Queen

    PFE – Phil, your comment regarding the it on the $25K , applicable on the $10KP also?

  128. Optrader

    Bmb,

    I don’t like selling calls with more than 3 weeks to go until expiration. I don’t feel it is worth it. If I want to reduce my risk I just sell some of my longs and reduce my size, as well as make my stop tighter. To me the only reason to sell calls is to profit from total positive Theta and maybe a drop in IV. But time premium really starts dropping only in the last couple of weeks. That’s just my style of course, not saying it’s the way to go.

  129. Phil

    $10KP notes:

    No changes. FYI – had we not touched the RIMM spread from yesterday morning, we would be out $290 at the moment (I left a set for comparison).

    SHFL making a nice comeback.

    Q $41 puts at .40 XXX

  130. Optrader

    NVDA-Bought puts at $36.80. Stop at $37.10.

  131. bmb

    Opt,

    I agree. Only reason i pointed out AAPL is that the Nov premiums are ridiculous. I have Oct covers and i will roll them to Nov as late as i can. Probably will pick out a Out of the Money call (maybe 180 or something). Bullish play, but really focusing on the IV drop. If you see Nov, 15$ out of the money has a 4$ premium!

  132. Phil

    Sorry, $52 puts at .40!!! XXX

  133. jkman

    Q puts- protection or mo play?

  134. Optrader

    Bmb, I would not sell any Nov’s until after earnings. My plan is to buy a strangle as these premiums are probably going to increase even if they seem ridiculous today. Also, remember that for a stock that can easily move $4 in one day, $19 is not such a stretch when you have 1 1/2 months to go AND earnings. What seems like a ridiculous premium is just a reflection of what the market is pricing in.

  135. Demetrius Michael

    QQQQ 52 Puts are 98cents

  136. mrl14

    Re: Q puts – Phil if you don’t say the month, you just mean the current month (so Oct, right?)

  137. Brainfill

    Taking profits after run-ups…closed Oct. sold puts on BIDU, CMG & SIGM (have LEAP putsto sell against); will reenter Nov. at later date. Earnings reporting next week looks light, so cautious on market short term.

  138. Demetrius Michael

    Sorry I was looking at Novs

  139. Brandon WAlker

    DM – he’s talking about Oct.

  140. jkman

    DM i’m seeing .4
    mrl- yeah oct’s

  141. bmb

    Opt

    I have jan 160′s at 10.66 basis. Sold Oct 160′s a while back at 3. My plan was to wait it out till Oct expiry, then roll to Nov, probably for whatever costs 3. That gives me a 15-20$ up move room as well as IV implosion. What would you recommend otherwise?

  142. Demetrius Michael

    I know, my screen was default Novs by accident. But thanks Brandon, I’m sometimes an idiot.

  143. jkman

    i love these penny options. this better catch on across the board

  144. richard marble

    TLT down big — long term interest rates are going up! At some point, I think this has to start to matter……

  145. Demetrius Michael

    And jkman… lol I love the penny spreads in this… I like the trade, with you phil on this one :D .

    2k
    QQQQ 10 lots, 52 puts 42 cents. 400 spent, 2200 cash.

  146. greedpeace

    i’m short ati.

  147. jkman

    penny options- i was so happy to hear they extended the program. like i said it better catch on and add more companies. has anyone heard anything about future plans?

  148. mrl14

    How come AAPL’s earnings date hasn’t been set? Traditionally it’s around the same time as GOOG, Oct 17th (the wed) but nothing yet? Thoughts?

  149. Mark

    mrl14 – it says 10/24 in bloomie, but didn’t someone get something form Apple IR that it’s 10/22 (khannnn?)

  150. jkman

    YRCW- got confused at first. i got filled on the jan’s and when i heard 2.60 i got confused then realized it was changed to apr’s.
    i’m practically even on jan’s. worth risking holding a few more days?

  151. rcha

    Phil/DM,
    I lost a lot on 400 Q puts on first recommendation today. Should I have put a stop for a drop of 5 cents. How do you play these penny spreads?

  152. Yev

    mrl14,

    Apple earnings are on the 22nd of October. This is confirmed by their investor relations.

  153. rcha

    Sorry that was 40 puts on the Q I lost. Back in with same at .42

  154. dday97

    Optrader

    One option on GOOG is a short staddle nov 600 calls/puts. Max gain would be at 600 but would be covered and still have gain between 560-640 with still a nice return between 580-620. Still trying to work up a strangle play, just trying to come up with some options.

  155. rcha

    Phil,
    Trying to learn…..on what TA do you base our Q puts on.

  156. MJ

    just catching up ….

    3k for an accountant for doing taxes is a bit too much unless you average the same number of trades as Phil. I think anyone could do there own taxes including complex wash sales, actually there are some complex wash sales were the IRS is pretty open and does not have strict rules. I had more than 500 trades last year and I thought I might have to see a professional, did some reading, used some online tools and I was all set. This year I will probably be well over 1000 trades and I am very confident that I can do the taxes myself :-)

  157. biodieselchris

    haha I jumped in too at 0.42 …..

    I missed my FXC calls yesterday — damn!

  158. mSquare

    SBUX – is up due to Chinese traders increasingly need the jolts to keep the markets higher and with all the gains could even pay higher per cup – especially after being unable to trade for a whole week, the next week could be really big.

    OK – maybe a little off, but I fully expect this to air on a soon to come Fox business-channel fair-n-balanced interview.

  159. greedpeace

    what just happened to ua?

  160. biodieselchris

    oh god speaking of taxes I get to do mine for 2006 this weekend (filed extension).

    Thanks to MS/GS I have a carryover loss on my Sch D though …

  161. Optrader

    ILMN-$56!

  162. Mark

    greedpeace = look at the volume on UA… HUGE spike… Nike for UA rumor…

  163. dday97

    BTW, that straddle play was selling those two 600′s not buying

  164. Greg

    KSU doing well for me today. I have the Jan 30s

  165. Optrader

    Dday, do you mean a short straddle before earnings? I am not sure this would be a good strategy as premiums are going to go up on both legs. Also, I usually don’t like doing short strangles/straddles because it uses way too much margin and losses are not limited. Anything could happen overnight that would put you in a very bad situation.

  166. billbigd

    FCX-took a little off at $111 $2 gain from yesterday. Mark you still holding?
    AAPL-Optrader are you going to roll the Jan 140′s to a higher strike?

  167. yopauly

    BA- Trying to make a comeback

  168. Demetrius Michael

    Rcha – Day trading indexes are easy, just plan entries on them rather than momentum trades… If you trade momentum you’ll be killed on either the spread or volatility. Stop of 5 cents is too general for my tastes, but it’s really good for beginners…. Learn how to read candle sticks and know about support and resistance lines.

    It’s confusing, but you’ll get the hang of it… Take the Q’s for example, look at the chart and you see it bouncing around, if it breaks higher 52.7 would be number to beat… if it breaks lower, 52.6 is the line it has to break….

    So you adjust your stops, if you’re long, then 52.6 is your stop, if your short 52.7 becomes your cover… I’m short the trade only because I feel it’s over bought, and I guess you could use various indicators to help prove it too, like Trix (what I use, 10/3), fibs, RSI (Reuter’s fav, also good, @ 9), Mcad, etc…

    Either way, it’s more about planning and sticking to it, than anything else.

    As for Timeframe, I use 5 minute ticks for accuracy (unless I’m posting trades here, then I purposely make them so you can buy them lower than what I say), 10 minutes are also good… The higher TF you use the less noise you get, and better trends you can make…. But you’re entries and exits would be late…

  169. trestles

    fwiw

    12:35 UA Under Armour ticks up ~$1 in past few minutes as NKE-for-UA chatter circulates (78.98 +1.01) -Update-

  170. Optrader

    Bmb, are you planning on holding those through earnings? Probably if you are expecting IV crush. If that’s the case I would not sell them as soon as Oct expire. I would sell them the day before earnings. If you want to reduce your risk between expiration and earnings just reduce your size or buy some puts, which you can sell the day you sell the calls.

  171. dday97

    The premiums are high because of earnings and that’s precisely why I’d want to sell them into it. Yes, it is a lot of margin but the spread for even breaking even is huge which makes it an attractive trade.

  172. Optrader

    BBD, do you think I should? I am fine with the $140′s right now. I like the fact that they have a very small premium in them, a good delta and I don’t need the cash for other trades. What do you think?

  173. Optrader

    Dday, yes premiums are high (even if I hate writing things like this, premiums are just what they are, they are as high as someone is willing to buy them). But they are probably going to get even higher as earnings get closer. This is what happened with RIMM.

  174. Cap

    Phil – YHOO … what do do w/ that sell 25 call, buy 27.50 call trade for even a couple of weeks back ?

  175. Jason Treu

    BigBillD,
    MTL and PCU doing nicely as well. RIO lagging a bit.
    Go Cowboys. 5-0 after this week.
    J

  176. Mark

    BBD – no sir, got out @ 110. Hit my fundie price target… on to the next money maker… :)

    That being said it could easily go higher… but in my former life I got used to buying stuff I thought “should” be worth a dollar (fundies) the next couple months (macro scene and techncials) for 0.75… can’t day trade anyways, and why fix something that ain’t broke? Glad you’re still banking though… it’s a good stock. My watchlist says it’s “worth” 120ish… good times…

  177. Optrader

    Dday, also, are you planning on holding through earnings to take advantage of IV crush? This would be an extremely dangerous strategy. AAPL could as well be at $200. There are other strategies that take advantage of an IV crush without being so risky: credit ratio spreads, selling a calendar, and all kinds of diagonals.

  178. bmb

    I’m holding onto my FCX 09′s..

  179. dday97

    Oh, I see what your saying. To be more clear I wouldn’t do the trade until the week of earnings to try and get max premium. This isn’t a trade I’d do today, just trying to get some trade options for them written down so we can chose which one best fits.

  180. Filmflam

    Optrader, might be too early to cover AAPL. Needs a stronger move before covering. maybe 162+ so that they can sell the worthless Oct 160′s. I think that happens by Tuesday. Personally, I am expecting an AAPL/GOOG/tech fade for a few days next week to bring some fear back in and then a blockbuster expiration week. AAPL might be an exception now that they have moved to the week after expiration. I guess it was too difficult for the manipulators to have GOOG and AAPL earnings so close together.

    When AAPL is on an uptrend I play bounces off the 9dma. We just had one yesterday. And after looking at the BB, it might be good for a pop to 165. Either way, I see only a small pullback possible in the next few days so less incentive to cover.

    Don’t forget that Leopard (the OS that windows will be in 4 years) comes out this month and it should be pretty fantastic. For those of you that have seen it, I still get windows users to marvel at Expose’. And that is 2 years old now. The new operating system will have many analysts upgrading and citing that as a catalyst. Could also move ADBE on pentup upgrade cycle demand. I am holding Jan-09 45′s and just waiting for that to pop over $45 so I can start covering and get my purchase price back. Missed the chance to sell the Sept 45′s on their last earnings and still kicking myself. But, now they are poised to clear LONGTERM resistance and make new ATH. Barely 1% below it.

    So, I would XXX that trade. Long ADBE, at least April-08, and get ready to sell front month after momentum slows on a breakout (at maybe 48-50).

  181. bmb

    Opt,

    Yes, going to hold through earnings and maybe all the way into Jan. Hm, i guess i’ll see what the situation is on Oct expiry.

  182. dday97

    Yes, I would hold, it’s the only way this strategy would work by taking advantage of the crush…risky indeed. I am looking at diagonals as well.

  183. Brian

    Can you guys update me on what has been sold in the $25K portfolio? I seem to have missed everything up to Phils recent post. Are we out of PFE completely? Thanks

  184. Filmflam

    Oh yeah, and AAPL usually falls after earnings in Jan and April, and rises after July and Oct. That has been true to form for a while now, even if the rise in July was only good for one day. But, it was a heck of a day.

  185. Denis

    IMCL … Nice move through $44

  186. marathonman

    Question about dividends- I have T Jan 09 Calls (5) do I get credit for the dividends that occur while I hold those calls? Thanks

  187. rcha

    DM,
    Thanks for the reply. You explained it nice and simple. Damn, it seems to be breaking the high you talked about. Don’t want to take a 2nd loss on this. May be on a bull day, it is easier to play Long. Pl let me know what you do with your puts. I will be watching both the chart and your moves.

  188. Filmflam

    And all that said about AAPL, I look over my portfolio and I don’t have enough of it. Only leaps, too much focus on placing my GOOG orders, and didn’t have my AAPL orders in for yesterdays pullback. So, I hope you are right Optrader, crash that bastard so I can load up.

  189. Mark

    bmb – so you’re synthetically long FCX. I think that’s a great hold. It should keep going up the next few years with its global penetration (and assuming the Global Growth Chindia BRIC’s stories keep up). I’m trading st mo / technical stuff (by ST I mean 2 days to 2 month holds).

  190. Demetrius Michael

    Breaks – “Breaks” are only confirmed if the candle closes above / below the line.. There are many times you get fake outs and whipsaws… Especially in the currency markets when Soros is bored, or during high news times…. There are people out there that purposely manipulate share prices so they can get things at discount… OR they just want to fuck with you. I rarely swear, but it’s warranted.

    Like 2 Bernanke speeches ago when he paused… The market wasn’t “digesting” the news… Everyone knew it was a good thing (not great), but def not bad… But big fundies short the market to kill people’s stops, and then it becomes a chain reaction with everyone selling… At these times, I usually have both puts and calls, and make on both because of the volatility.

    In Forex, friday nonfarms are great if you take both sides, the whipsaws really allow you to take advantage of those… So if you buy say euro and buy swiss, and say 40 pip take profits, 20 pip stops, you’ll for sure make money on the whipsaw and hedge…

    What is a pip? well usually it’s like 0.0001, but the leverages you deal in the pure Forex markets go up to 400:1….. So if you had 10k you could safely have a buying power of about a Million (up to 4M)… on a 20 pips, that’s 0.002 * 1M = 2k. on 4M = 8k… Making 2k in 10 minutes off of a 10k investment isn’t too bad.

    Forex doesn’t mater for individuals. But really good for funds, it’s kinda stupid for hedgefunds to make only USD…. I mean I laughed at Phil about that hedgefund comment, because sure, some funds hedge against their positions, but few hedge against their actual dollar!!… Talk about thinking inside the box.

    Who cares if you made 20% this year, when your dollar went down 20%.

    Anyways, enough of my rant.

  191. billbigd

    KHANNN-Miss Jarvis looks pretty nice today!

  192. Optrader

    Flimflam, I agree with you that I might be early covering my Leaps on AAPL. But I wanted to take advantage of selling the premium before it starts dropping, especially as it is friday. I am still bullish on AAPL with a very positive delta.

  193. Optrader

    I keep saying Leaps, which they were when I bought them more than a year ago, but I guess they are not anymore :)

  194. Phil

    Cancellation contract – sounds like the 10% penalty applies to you not paying the $25 within 30 days so make sure you get a reciept for that $25. There are overiding consumer credit laws if you are changing your mind within a short period of time so go in with a witness and maybe you can check with your states BBB, there’s probably a list of consumer rights on their web site.

    AAPL – sorry no x’s because you are not protecting your downside. I know it’s been up, up up but down does exist and you have $26.60 tied up in the long call and you are capping your gains at $2 from here (you will gain half as fast as your caller) while a $10 drop in Apple (6%) will drop your position $6.50, well below what coverage you have. The Jan $160s at $14.65 against the current $160s at $3.88 have a much better chance of success but it’s still very risky into earnings. If that’s your position I’d roll up to 2X on the $160 spread or just take 1/2 of yours off the table by rolling them up. On the whole, I like to wait as close as possible to earnings to pick a spot like that.

    Q puts – yes current month but it’s a tough call looking at the charts, I just can’t get my brain on board with my eyes.

  195. dilbert

    Time to buy RIMM for the afternoon run? if so, which/

  196. billbigd

    Jason-anytime a stock is up 4% RIO
    Optrader-I would look at it. With 140′s it is hard to get another 100%

  197. Filmflam

    opt, now I gotcha. This is part of your play on the IV crush and earnings. Still think you will get a move to 162+ by Monday. When that happens, I am right there with you. I don’t even think of today’s move as a push, it is more of a relieving of buying pressure which builds up everytime it touches the 9dma. I try to only sell and cover when it is touching or gapping above a BB.

  198. Seattle

    DD question for Phil – Im in the Nov/Oct spread with a basis of (1.87/1.12), currently (1.25/.65). I’m currently down with 14 days left before Oct expiration. Based on my Excel modelling, it appears the spread will not become profitable until we are

  199. Seattle

    (2nd attempt) DD question for Phil – Im in the Nov/Oct spread with a basis of (1.87/1.12), currently (1.25/.65). I’m currently down with 14 days left before Oct expiration. Based on my Excel modelling, it appears the spread will not become profitable until we are

  200. Seattle

    (3rd try a charm)…less than 4 days to oct expiration, and then only thinly profitable at that between 49.50 and 50.50, with 50 being the max profit between 4 and 1 days until oct expiration. Do these calculations look right? If not I need to recheck my calculations so I know the proper exit point.

  201. Seattle

    On another note, my posts were cut off because I used the SYMBOL for less than instead of saying “less than”. I guess I wont try that again…

  202. Mark

    Phil – did you get filled on the GME Nov calls at 1.60?

  203. bmb

    Mark

    Yes. I’m slowly trying to build 09 positions on a few select stocks. FCX was the first one..

  204. Filmflam

    anyone keep AMAT on their radars. Been flat and trending sideways. I am holding some LEAPS, going to double down since they are down 50% from where I got them a few months ago. Bought a tester position so I wouldn’t forget about it and I bought Jan-09 30′s, so I think I might triple down, since I am just buying volatility, and it hasn’t had any in a while.

  205. rcha

    Optrader,
    Any recommendations for LEAPS. Have some money that can wait.

    DM, have looked at the Forex market but never played. Want to get good with options first.

  206. doubleclick

    ***PSW Investment Club Info Reminder:
    For anyone who missed yesterday’s post about a potential PSW Investment Club:
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=1572#comment-58258

    And here’s Phil’s early comments (read through):
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=1572#comment-58285

  207. Optrader

    BBD, yes you are right, not the same leverage, but less risk as well. Making 20% on $100k is the same as making 100% on 20K, but is less risky and there is less premium. If I needed the 80K I might think differently but I am 70% cash right now.

  208. Demetrius Michael

    Rcha, it was close, but the break isn’t confirmed. I’ll keep you notified, but I’m also reading all of phil’s history, so I might be a bit off in my timing.

    Also note your situation, we had a big run up and no real retrace since… Kinda weird if people want to hold over the weekend… Like look at Phil, he’s a bit sketched out of holding.

    Look at the option trading history too.. You can see when people are jumping on board or jumping ship by the history flow… I like SPY options because of this volume.

    Stock trading history is also good, but pay less attention to order sizes and more attention to order flow… Rich people buy in big lots, but it’s funds that use mathematical buy programs… They work on Soft dollar too, so it’s not really cheaper to buy 1 share at a time vs 1000 shares.

    There also leading and lagging stock indicators, like VLO is (well was atleast) a leading indicator for XOM … If you see VLO put activity flash, then it’s not too late to start finding positions for XOM…

    Volatility also raises option prices, if you noticed price hasn’t really changed in the last half hour, but the put option prices went from 40 cents, to 44 cents… You can use that to your advantage!! But that’ll be a scalping technique.

    There’s lots to it, and it’s not so much being a surgeon, but more a detective. There’s lots of clues in the market, lets those help your analysis.

  209. Optrader

    Rcha, like everyone here I like AAPL, GOOG, NYX etc.. My other favorite play is ILMN but it’s been up a lot lately. I also like SIRF. I think someone was doing a list here.

  210. jkman

    phil thank you on the contract thing.

    My advice to anyone is never let someone who doesnt know the game go in and get a car or any loan alone. they will get screwed over. my girlfriend is smart but math and finances are not her strongpoint. and she is very timid so she gives in very easily. i just hate seeing people get taken advantage of. she ended up walking out with over a couple thousand bucks in stuff she doesnt need but was convinced she did. and on top of that they slapped a 10.99% interest rate on her. total loan on a $12,000 car was over 20k after finance charges. 340 a month for 5 years on a 12k car. i was outraged. but i looked it all over and all the crap can be cancelled so i’ll take the loan down a couple thousand. new payment should be about 260. still stuck with the damn 11% though. she promised never to do anything like that without me again.

    my complaining for the day is done. you can all go back to trading now

  211. millions07

    Optrader

    what is your fav play at NYX ?
    thanks

  212. Optrader

    AAPL-Phil, I knew you were going to say exactly this :) You are right, I am not protecting the downside with this trade, just trying to make more money by selling premium. I am doing this because I am a trend follower and I want to keep a bullish bias until the trend changes. Then it will be time to change my position. Of course I am not going to play earnings like this. I really like your suggestions though, thank you! I might follow your advice (and BBD’s as well) and roll to the $160′s and then adapt right before earnings.

  213. Filmflam

    there’s your 160 apples

  214. Matrix

    156 was the high on the SPY’s back in July. .

  215. Optrader

    NYX-Right now I have the Nov $80′s.

  216. rcha

    Doubleclick,
    I am in with 5K and will up it by another 5k within 2-3 months.

  217. MJ

    wow, they make it so easy to accomplish that $15 move in RIMM. Just amazing power these bastards have. Planning to get out of the 110 calls soon.

  218. millions07

    Thanks Optrader!
    I may pick up some.

  219. Demetrius Michael

    Rcha – I have to go and sip on fruity coffee, I’m out of the trade…

    2k
    closed at 40cent -$20.
    I’m not even considering it because the math would be stupid.

    ///

    I sold because it’s 6 minutes in, and the bar has about a 50/50 of breaking. Okay not a reason to sell.
    The option tape is red… There’s about 800 lots dumped… Sheeping strat, OK reason to sell.
    Technical indicators are down and the stock is moving higher…. Good reason to bail out. though RSI is moving higher, but it doesn’t really follow the RSI

  220. MJ

    A word to caution: Since Aug 2006, the 2nd week of the month has been extremely bullish for the dow. Except during the subprime meltdown and the feb 2007 collapse. I wouldn’t buy any new puts here, may be close more calls if you are not confident.

  221. bigduke6

    my strangle on gs was unprofitable at market open this morning (i dont get that at all. even though it opened above 110.) so i sold the call and the put stupidly when i should have kept the call. then i bought another call on gs to only watch the rest of the market rocket up while goldman does nothing. *cries*

    man i need to get this 3k portfolio up to 10k so i can have cash on hand and be in positions.

  222. Demetrius Michael

    Take care boys, enjoy.

  223. bigduke6

    strangle on RIMM*

  224. Jonathan Parker

    I hope some of you took my advice on MDVN (or maybe that’s what is driving it up).. there’s been some unusual call option action today on it, someone buying 250 contracts of three separate october tranches

  225. billbigd

    Optrader-or move up to $150 or $155

  226. doubleclick

    Rcha- if you haven’t already, please email me so I can get your email and send you more information. My email is colinmiller2@gmail.com

  227. brent cartwright

    Coming aboard to post for the first time since becoming a member one month ago.
    So thankful I am able to taste and see the daily trades, wisdom/experience and thought rationale to learn from.
    ~thank you all.
    Here Goes..
    China being closed all week.seems they might be pent up for a play on todays strength.
    Looking for feedback on this play and an entry price critique.
    Buy 10 CHL October 80 calls (CHLJP) @ $6.00 – Day

  228. likewoods

    GM $38 hard not too buy puts here

  229. Yev

    Doubleclick,

    your email at gmail just bounced, says Invalid recipient. Any ideas?

  230. jeddah62

    IBM – finally starting to move

  231. doubleclick

    Bounced? Try again, I guess. It’s definitely colinmiller2@gmail.com and I’ve been receiving emails.

  232. Phil

    TLT – you would think but I guess they are determined to get a big print on the EOD indexes into the weekend at this point. Like I said earlier in the weekend, putting lipstick on the pig for the big international funds. All the same analystst who told us we were doomed in Q2 are now, 20% later, telling us that these same stocks are bargains yet there have been no major earnings surprises, no great economic news (Jan projections were for 3.1% gdp growth and 9% corp profits), no war victories, debt reduction, housing turnaround… no nothing!!! Seriously does vallium help you ignore this stuff? It’s really time for drugs if we’re going to keep going like this…

    YRCW – I would say it’s not safe to hold but that’s my brain talking as I see oil over $80 coupled with a loss of prodcution jobs (that send product by truck) in exchange for more burger flipping so I will start drinking around 2:30 so I can dispense some more reckless advice! 8-)

    QQQQ – if you didn’t stop out the first time and are out .20 I would say it wouldn’t hurt to wait at this point in case we get a sell-off. Also, rather than take a .20 loss you could spend a dime and roll yourself to the Nov $52 puts at .97 (+.55) and sell someone else the Oct $52 puts for .42 for a net +.13 but he only has 9 days left (Monday holiday) and that premium pays your loss + some and gives you another month to see a correction (or you can roll again!).

    Q puts TA – just based on the fact that I figured we’d run into profit taking at record highs

    MJ – If I only did 1,000 trades a month I’d probably do my own taxes too!

    Good SBUX theory MM!

  233. KHAANNN!!!

    Brent,

    I use the chinese ADR’s like an ATM, but have not been holding overnight. I am to worried about the HSI. They are long overdue for an at least 10% correction. Asia next week seems real sketchy, and any venting of the HSI will indeed be more of a downward catalyst for the Shanghai Composite, that our strength be an upside catalyst. IMHO. But lets see what Phil thinks.

  234. Jeff

    Any info on why SYX is moving up so much?

  235. Yev

    bizzare, tried it twice, both times bounced, third time seems to be ok.

  236. Matrix

    TICK is approaching nosebleed levels at 800

  237. doubleclick

    Qs. Really. We’re going higher?!

  238. nav

    SYX – WOWWWWWW! Those things just flew – I had bought Dec 07 22.5 for 1.30 and this morning sold the Oct 07 22.5 for 0.60. The Decembers are now 2.00 and the Octobers are now 1.30 – so i am losing money on them. What do I do from here?

  239. Yev

    seems google mail doesn’t like the Outlook importance flag set. lol

  240. MJ

    At this rate, RIMM will pass AAPL stock price by october expiration.

    RIMM — P/S (ttm) is just a low 16 (need to check if it is still the case after yesterday’s results)
    AAPL — P/S (ttm) is 6 which is pretty damn high.

    But RIMM is excused because they can grow at 200% forever. There will be a day and time when this thing will get the valuations it truely deserves.

    SHLD, just amazing.

  241. marathonman

    colin…have people remove the “.” after the “com” in the email address

  242. k1

    SYX- I’m new to this “doubling” thing and don’t want to be greedy, so I sold off my (very) small position. What was that, 10 days? I’m happy with that.

  243. MJ

    SHLD made a higher high, all clear going to close the gap and head into the 170s soon

  244. calch

    Phil,

    Since SHLD is going crazy, I told you yesterday that I have the Jan-2010 140 calls at $27 basis and sold the Oct 135′s at $5.1. Yesterday you said when the premium goes below $2 on the Octobers to roll up. With my leaps up a lot as well as the Oct’s premium dwindling any more thoughts on what if anything I should do??

  245. B.B. Queen

    you all say Monday’s a holiday and it is of course, but on the Barron’s calendar it says the stock market is open for business as usual.. is everyone going to be here or are we taking a break? :)

  246. rcha

    Thanks phil. I will just do that with Q’s

  247. Optrader

    RIMM-Bought some puts. Stop at $115.

  248. Tommy

    bond market close..stock market open

  249. djczing

    KMP bought Marine Terminals business for $100M. Says it will be immeditely accretive to ‘distributable cash flow’.

    KMP up almost 2% today.

  250. Jonathan Parker

    PPG making a nice move now too

  251. denver

    Is today a good day to roll ITM Oct callers to Nov? Just thinking I’m likely going to have to rollem anyway,
    seems th IV is up today, might be a good day to catch it. Am I thinking wrong?

  252. MJ

    Nasdaq and NDX going ballistic. Seems like we will be heading to 3000 soon.

  253. k1

    Hey all, I’m still catching up after a morning of conference calls, but saw the mention of karmcon’s Trader Status articles. They’re a bit more advanced reading assignment, but here you go:

    Taxes, Trader Status, and Wash Sale Rule:
    - karmcon Trader Status posts:
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=383
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=384
    - karmcon comments: http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=1258#comment-29846

  254. millions07

    NEM is doing well!

  255. doubleclick

    Marathonman, ah, thanks. I’ll be careful about that in the future.

  256. millions07

    everything going nuts except my UNH , eh!

  257. Matrix

    wow, break 156 on the SPY’s?

  258. djczing

    WM up a buck after that big warning. MER same-same.

  259. Phil

    YHOO – Cap I forgot it, just tell me where you are at the moment.

    Sorry, trying to catch up, feel free to reask if I miss a question.

    DD Spread – LOL, I love those spreadsheets. I sold the $50 calls because I didn’t think DD would make a serious move prior to expiration so that caller paid my premium while I wait for no hurricanes to tank the natural gas prices (one of DD’s major input costs) plus I expect good earnings which come after this poor guy expires – I don’t think the spreadsheet tells you all that…

    GME – no, it shot right up to $1.75 and 10% is a little far to chase.

    AMAT – if semis do well they do well. I always like them.

    BIDU finally dipped!

  260. lindsay

    B.B. Queen- monday is trading day, but not settlememt day. i hope everyone will here.

  261. Robert DiAlberto

    IS CF a good short over the next week?

    When does the market realize it is too high and retrace?

    Am I nuts?

  262. Yev

    Phil, everyone

    What are your thoughts regarding selling Apple Oct 170, close to a buck in premium, and so close to expiration.

  263. Filmflam

    Hey, those technically inclined, can I get a vote. ACAS is on a steady climb on low volume through prior resistance points and now popping above its 200dma, would you take this as a signal of gathering strength?

  264. tesorohaters

    phill, what to do about FWLT?

  265. nav

    Phil – on the SYX – i couldn’t have timed it worse – I sold the October Calls (against my Decembers) and then both of them took off and now are ITM. Is it time to roll them up or just wait and let the October calls decay?

  266. jomama

    Flimflam, I channeled ACAS from 40 to 48 for a while before this whole subprime mess started. They have a nice dividend. Kind of worrisome though, because they keep on diluting their shares. almost feels like a ponzee scheme. I am not smart enough to really figure it out.

  267. djczing

    Etrade did something Ive always wished for… sort of…

    The tallies in your portfoilo holdings (and reflected in your account balance) were calculated based on the last-executed price. For options of course I always had to calculate the real numbers every day because often the last execution wouldnt be accurate.

    Well now E-trade is calculating on the bid. THats much better — but not as right as it should be. Of course short options should be on the bid, long on the ask.

    Whats this do for etrade ?? Just think of the guzillions of other people who hold options, and calculate the best possible account balances for each of em. It should really help etrade balance sheet and earnings, should it not ?

    I just thought that was a funny way for etrade to ‘make money’.

  268. likewoods

    GM try the Dec

    GM tryed the Dec $37.50 covered with the Oct $35 puts

  269. nav

    DJ – I noticed that as well. Looks like they rolled out this new feature starting today. Now if only they could make trading options (rolling calls etc) a little more easy

  270. 6fingerman

    nav — had the same problem… here’s the response:
    http://www.philstockworld.com/members/?p=1570#comment-57773

  271. albo

    PHRM at ATH ! ! !
    MEDX with nice move also.

  272. MrN

    E*trade users. W/ the changes I’m getting all kinds of messed up quotes on stocks, positions, % and everything is terrible slow. Just me or whole platform?

  273. tesorohaters

    optrader, what are you doing about your RIMM puts?

  274. Jonathan Parker

    Next leg up!

  275. CMan

    Phil,
    Last month I got DIA calls assigned – want to avoid it this month. Appreciate any suggestions on following spreads :
    Symbol Desc Basis
    APV DH Apple Inc [AAPL] Apr 140 Call $28.02
    APV KI Apple Inc [AAPL] Nov 145 Call $15.89
    COF AN Capital One Financial [COF] Jan 70 Call $3.63
    COF JN Capital One Financial [COF] Oct 70 Call $2.28
    WKT AR Caterpillar Inc [CAT] Jan 90 Call $10.30
    CAT JO Caterpillar Inc [CAT] Oct 75 Call $2.41
    CHK AR Chesapeake Energy [CHK] Jan 37.5 Call $1.90
    CHK JG Chesapeake Energy [CHK] Oct 35 Call $1.45
    VRN AK Citigroup Inc [C] Jan 55 Call $2.90
    C JI Citigroup Inc [C] Oct 45 Call $2.45
    VSY AF Cypress Semiconductor [CY] Jan 30 Call $2.91
    CY JE Cypress Semiconductor [CY] Oct 25 Call $2.15
    YQH AW Sears Holding Corporation [SHLD] Jan 140 Call $30.40
    KTQ JE Sears Holding Corporation [SHLD] Oct 125 Call $6.60

  276. Cap

    Looks like at 1:30 pm they just had to own XOM all of a sudden. Ridiculous.

  277. mrsmdrt

    MrN – It’s the platform I have done well today and under the portfolio tab for the day it has me down thousands of $$$. At least the balance seems right ;)

  278. Filmflam

    yeah, ACAS was very steady for a while.

    I actually have a buddy who works there. I told him about an article that said that they were going to get hit because they would have to revalue the assets on their books (mark to market, I guess) but he said that their reporting is VERY accurate and he says nothing is shady in that department. As for the dilution, that does suck, but old news, I hope.

    I have some Oct 45′s I picked up for a dime a week or so ago and now want some support for not selling them. I should take my 300% gains and walk, but I lost more than that on puts so now I am trying to make up for it, but I went too heavy on the puts, too light on the calls. Should be good if I can get the stock to 46.

  279. MrN

    Took off some NEM from 1.4 to 1.6 in few days is enough when I’m heavy on gold on Friday pm. Thanks Phil!

  280. bleemus

    Phil, nice call on the SNE callers up 50% already

  281. Demetrius Michael

    Watch Q’s for break

  282. djczing

    Correction – that KMP news was from 9/28

  283. nav

    Thanks 6fingerman! Board – apologies for the duplicate post.

    TIVO – breaking new 52 week highs on decent ~3x volume.

  284. MrN

    bxp puts getting cheaper! :) I guess I might as well smile, it doesn’t help to cry.

  285. millions07

    out of NEM’s too
    Thanks Phil!

  286. Phil

    Car contract – If it can be cancelled outright you should. Some people (girls) tend not to think of a car as an investment but GM and others are giving cars away with 4% and even 0% financing – surely there is a car like that she can be comforatble with for a few years. Around here you can get one of those cute little Hummers for $2,500 down and $299 a month for 3 years as a lease. Who cares how much gas it uses at those prices? Even Toyota has financing deals this time of year…

    Are the markets open Monday?

    Howdy Brent! I’d go to Nov for CHL as there’s just 9 days left to this period.

    NOTE TO ALL – OCT contracts are now on suicide watch with 2 weeks to expiration. If you sold them, great! If you own them, GET OUT VERY SOON.

    SYX – totally great company, way undervaolued. We just had a whole talk about covers being a bad idea on them yesterday! Well, you’re stuck rolling them to Nov now so you may as well keep them as protection over the weekend at least.

    China scares me either way.

    SHLD/Other high flyers – One way you can look at it when you have a leap (’09, ’10) and your caller is in the money is that you are getting a great premium for the next month. When you have 24 months to spend, an early roll doesn’t kill you. You can push the $135 caller up to the Nov $140s for $2 out of your pocker, if you make $5 progress a month for $2 you’ll be fine and you remain well covered. You can also rooll him to 2x the Nov $150s at $8.20 (about an even swap) and roll yourself to 2x the March $150s, which takes $3 per current contract off the table and leaves you 50% covered. The $15 per current contract in premium you gain is more than you would have collected in 3 or 4 months of regular rolls so it’s worth shifting your position (you can always move back once you wear out his premium). Even if SHLD keeps going up, you still have 3 more months of rolls but now you are starting on an even level with your caller and your delta has moved closer to his.

    CF – LOL, nothing is a good short right now!

    AAPL – naked selling, no thanks!

    FWLT – I’m giving them to next week. As I said though, not looking good for puts.

  287. Brian

    Phil, going into the weekend with a lot of uncovered positions in $25KP. Are you still recommending selling the SYX 22.50′s @.60 ? This has been a good day.

  288. MrN

    $VIX & Q’s stretched for a q drop into the close? How are you Q traders playing this?

  289. djczing

    nav: It was pretty darn slow already (JAVA is a resource hog), but now that they have to calculate the greeks and IV and all the other option ‘analytics’, the slowness is exacerbated. I would hope they do those calcs on their back-end machines and not on our java front-ends. I cringe at the thought…

  290. Cap

    Phil: YHOO short Oct 25, long Mar 27.50 (or april ?), even.

    Opt: Another big FMD and I didn’t pull the damn trigger ! 50, 150, 20 on the indexes. Damn !

  291. Filmflam

    Picking up from a discussion yesterday…

    You can buy LEAPS in an IRA account. That is unbelievable. I didn’t think that was the case, thought you could only sell covered calls. Did they change the rules in the last year. That is great for us, bad for pretty much everyone else.

    I have this over-arching theory on Dow 30K to Dow 6K in the next 5-6 years, and allowing people to buy options in their IRA’s would make me want to alter that to more like 40K to 4K. I guess it is bad enough that the only person who can take money out of your IRA is the brokerage through fees. Why don’t they have to wait until your account is cashed out. How awesome would that look on your monthly statement:

    “Hi, your account balance is $35,000.

    Of that, you owe us $8425. Have a nice day!

    Keep trading!!!”

  292. Mark

    Bond Market closed Monday.

  293. billbigd

    FCX & NOV ATH

  294. Filmflam

    Sorry, closing line should have been:

    “Remember, an active trader is a responsible investor.”

  295. Demetrius Michael

    Buying Q puts.

  296. Yev

    Filmflam,

    I’ve been trading options in my IRA for over a year now, short term, LEAPs, spreads, etc. without an issue. I must say it is nice to be able to do so :)

  297. Demetrius Michael

    the 52 puts are the most active with penny spreads, if you roll to 53 you’ll be safer, but if it’s for a trade, the 52s are better.

  298. jkman

    i’m just joined you DM

  299. MrN

    E*trade quotes must be messed too. What’s ask/bid on q 52 puts? I’m not getting filled even at the listed ask.

  300. marathonman

    I am using different option analysis software (real time) and it often gives me complex trades with the probability or profit (as a percentage) along with the maximum profit (again as a percentage) these are typically double diagnols or or iron condors. Are these numbers accurate there have been times after searching various spreads that the probability of profit is above 90%

    Thanks Don

  301. greedpeace

    can’t believe thos fwlt’s are even bidding 1.8 now.

  302. Demetrius Michael

    This is sketchy trading to the max, it’s really interesting how they want to close the long weekend. Do they want to hold for 3 days?.. Volume is low already, things can be manipulated so easily, but not too sure if the manipulators want to hold… Especially when minutes are released 2pm Tuesday.

    If I was a fund manager, I would be cautious.

  303. Filmflam

    Yev, it is nice for us because we (some more, some less) know the risks.

    The bitch of the Dow30k theory is that option traders will be looked at with awe on the rise, disgust on the fall. If there is a trading god (or spirit or brahma pool) and it likes me, I hope to make more money on the fall than on the rise, but I won’t be able to brag about it, because like short sellers, we are terrible people for profiting off of other’s misfortune (mistimed purchases, more like).

    Unlike successful traders who make lots of money, I like to predict the future and bet accordingly. That is my biggest bet, 30K AND BUST.

  304. albo

    ACAS

    It’s really not dilutiion. They sell stock at prices above book value and are able to
    earn more with the loans they make than the amount they pay out in dividends.
    Therefore, actually accretive. Hence, dividends go up every year.
    It has been a tremendous investment for the
    the last 10 years. I’ve owned it for the last 8 years.

  305. Filmflam

    DM, if you were a fund manager, you would be under-performing for the year and playing catchup.

    That’s why I am holding most of my positions until I smell panic buying.

  306. k1

    bigduke6- I saw your comment early today about getting killed on your RIMM strangle, but have just caught up to the current moment (busy morning on the phone). I’ve experience the same issue, setting up my strangle properly for earnings and then losing (a little) money on the setup due to the IV crush.

    For that reason, I’m much more careful about the IV when I put a strangle in place. Optrader mentioned today setting up strangles for earnings a couple weeks out, in order to benefit from the IV rush rather than pay for it.

    Also, if you’ve read Sage’s Education pieces, there’s another potential strategy if you’re bullish, which is to set up a backratio call spread. This is like a credit spread with an extra long call. I’m still experimenting with these in my paper trading account, but under some circumstances they can allow you to take a position in high-IV situations (like RIMM yesterday) and still have a reasonable chance of making some profit.

  307. Filmflam

    albo, are you buying more at this price? Did you buy any more on the dip?

  308. Richard

    Marathon Man – what software are you using. Sounds like IV. I also use their software, but am very doubtful of their probability of profit calculations. I think they have it backwards, and the probability is actually the inverse of that number (ie, in your case less than 10%). The software is good for scanning, but their profitability analysis is not so great – at least the way I understand their methodology. I use the software for searching for ideas, but that’s about it. I can’t rely on others to compute the probability of profit for me.

  309. Mike

    Phil: BMY

    I need your help. I currently have 325 BMY Jan 32.50s with a basis of about .88

    I want to play the upside. I am thinking of a ratio sell too the Oct 30s. On a TA basis BMY looks like its headed to 31 -32. Do I wait until next week for more of a move or do it today?

    What would be an appropriate ratio? They waiting on a FDA approval over the next two weeks and there is always the ever present buyouit rumor. If there is a big move up, I want to make sure I am not at a loss becuase of my short calls, and of course one would like to profit from the upside as well.

    Thanks for your imput. I appreciate your thoughts.

  310. biodieselchris

    is GOOG ever going to split or what?

    I could see it at 65 on a 10 for 1 alone.

  311. biodieselchris

    marathon man – do you have a marathon PR you’d like to divulge?

  312. Demetrius Michael

    Covering my Q’s, screw this.

  313. marathonman

    Richard..Thinkorswim
    biodiesel…ran NY in 96 around 4hrs (expected3.5) time suffered from an injury-- had to stop training for the 8 weeks prior due to broken collarbone from football…hoping to do another (not NY logistics were a nightmare at the start at 630 for an 1110 start) soon

  314. Demetrius Michael

    Flim you’re right… the markets can be manipulated either way if they want a strong close it’ll look good on paper for the days… Plus it usually extends into afterhours so they want upticks at the end of the session atleast… the RSI is also oversold… I don’t like it one bit, there’s no panic selling, hasn’t been at all day…. 10cents on the Q’s isn’t worth anything.

  315. fuunji

    Phil – what do you think of the DIA 140 puts under $1? Or should I just wait until next week to buy them?

  316. CMan

    Phil,
    Appreciate your analysis and suggestion on Leaps(SHLD).

  317. albo

    FILM:

    I did buy more at $36. Sold the Feb 40 calls after stock moved up. I keep a
    core position and trade some also. Options are very illiquid. Sometimes they
    get called early around x dividend date. Increases return.

  318. biodieselchris

    MM – I’m trying to come back from an injury myself but it seems to be semi-permanent (hamstring) … trained to hard in my “youth” (20′s). I’d like to run another one for ‘fun’ but the reality is I’ll never be able to do what i did before again (2:24).

    :(

  319. Filmflam

    DM, if you are looking for panic selling, you are going to be waiting a long time. Only panic buying and “gentle” selling pressure in the forecast.

  320. Demetrius Michael

    Thanks Flim, I would’ve stayed in the trade, but you convinced me otherwise

  321. Demetrius Michael

    film film film***** Sorry read too quick for my own good.

  322. greedpeace

    cree on fire today.

  323. Filmflam

    albo, thanks for the info. That is VERY INTERESTING. I have never had a contract called in. Guess I should buy more ITM stuff. =)

    Good purchase at 36. My buddy there is a very smart guy, and extremely conservative. I can’t even get him to buy AAPL. If he says they are solid and going to make money, then they will. Which begs the question, Film, why did you buy puts? Very good question, indeed.

  324. Filmflam

    greed, that is a dead cat you smell burning.

  325. Phil

    CMan -too many too close to close, remind me later.

    SYX – the sell on the SYX’s was IF it FAILED to hold $21.50. At $23 I’m in no mood to sell.

    Profit probability – it would be nice to go back in time and see what probabilities the software would have given you for RIMM plays yesterday… It’s like a horse race – there are favorites and long-shots: lies, damn lies and statistics is the quote I think…

    Lots of selling all of a sudden.

  326. Cap

    PHIL … REMEMBER, I SAID 1554-1555 AS POSSIBLE CLOSE !

  327. windywheel

    request:
    can we have a down day on monday please ?

  328. Phil

    Sellers taking advantage of people who are trying to print Dow 14,100 -lots of fun!

  329. marathonman

    bds…2:24 man that’s movin! hammy’s no fun to recover from…

  330. Mark

    Biodieselchris… A FRICKEN’ 2:24 MARATHON!?!?!?! You are a giant sir. Pure genetic mutant. Amazing. I’ll be lucky if I break 2 hrs in my 1/2 (I’m a sprinter… USED to be able to run the 400 under 50 sec). If you want you could try Galloway’s program… I like it b/c it reduces the chances of injury. But if you were that good I’m sure you know all about Galloway and have your own ideas about it. I hope you get to do it again man… wow…

  331. Demetrius Michael

    Mmmmm Stop Hunting…. Uh oh, bottom buyers. It’s soo much risk betting on a 140.6 break on DIA… Not worth anything, better to just watch boys.

  332. nav

    SYX – thanks for that update Phil – I sold those October calls (against my Novembers) when it broke 21.70 – ahh well! Its still good (net – i am making money on the trade). Not complaining here – just trying to understand and learn – how to deal with such situations.

  333. MrN

    Kinda’ glad I sold my NEM’s that’s a nasty little drop

  334. windywheel

    AAPL is going wild

  335. Demetrius Michael

    X holding very nicely.

  336. Demetrius Michael

    Wow somebody likes their iPhone a little too much.

  337. irished

    HALLELUJAH

  338. djczing

    MM and BioChris —

    I used to love running but found that the more I loved it the quicker id break down. I guess my knees and ankles didnt like 255 pounds pounding on em for 3-5 miles a day. I had to finally give it up. I still do walk those same trails I used to run on, but it isnt the same. Id suggest an elliptical machine for cardio, thighs, lower back and glutes, and walking for calves. The elliptical doesnt do anything for calves.

    Its allowed me to go back to playing baseball without my knees and ankles giving out on me.

    I suppose its easier on a lighter frame …

  339. Demetrius Michael

    DJ – My trainer recommends bikes… You can work as hard as you want…And your joints will be perfect :D .

  340. Filmflam

    djczing,

    Or if you have a good day of trading, you can invest in one of these bad boys. I am SERIOUSLY, considering it.

    http://www.fastexercise.com

  341. greedpeace

    phil, what do you make of these lower volatility periods meandering around the highs? in other words, there haven’t been up 300, down 200, up 300 days going on. is this positive at the highs or negative like the frenzied buying is over or is it the nifty fifty theory?

    do you see downside coming? or should i forget about a significant pullback through the end of the year?

  342. greedpeace

    are we earnings data dependent? do the highest growth stocks keep going and going and going a la 1999? the put/call ratio is not as high as during last highs right? do you pay attention to that? do you pay attention to the tick, advance/decline, vixdex, moneyflow, other technicals? i know you are preaching that macroeconomics don’t matter but let’s say, for instance, that alcoa misses big, guides lower….

  343. djczing

    DM: Bikes dont givne you the running motion or the full leg extension. They also arent weight-bearing. GREAT for thighs though. A bike was my only mode of transportation til I was about 22 years old !

    Im slightly older now, and I like the new rigs, although I still have the ole 12 speed. Not too good on the lower back these days. My brothers a big mountain biker — he keeps tryin to get me out there. Sounds like a blast !

  344. djczing

    Flim Flam: Holy cow what a rig !!!

  345. Phil

    BMY – I’d wait. You can always sell lower calls and this rally is very scary to short into.

    Sorry, got totally caught up in a ton of things, and will catch up later. Have a great weekend everyone!

  346. djczing

    Yeah – gotta hate the claim of a full cardio workout in 4 minutes. Thats just not possible.
    You need at least 30-35 mins with your heart at 80% max rate for a proper cardio workout.

    But hey for $14k surely it can run ya for 30 mins !

  347. mSquare

    SNDK – Down 2% today to $52 – largest down stock on S&P. Is it time to buy it now? I own some but would like to add more if on a sale…

    Thinking of selling the Jan08 $45 Puts for $2.05 or more? What (Put) could/should I buy to minimize margins?

  348. Phil

    Wow, things were so crazy today I forgot to tell you about the server changeover!!!!

    The servers will be redirected this evening and it may take as much as a day for the new server to be recognized. If you have trouble connecting, try http://72.32.68.243/ that’s the direct path to the server.

  349. djczing

    Profit probability:

    From what ive seen the probability of profit is usually calculated purely statistically by using the volatility of the underlying to predict the possibility of getting the underlying price to your profit zone (or keeping it wtihin your profit zone) either any time before expiration, or at expiration. The higher the statistical volatility, the more probability of the price reaching your profit zone, or escaping your profit zone.

    Theres the normal or lognormal distribution (given a volatility) calculation, and theres the monte carlo calculation.

    The issue with these probabilities is that hey are purely statistical. For example, if a stock price has just finished a run from 50 to 75, and you sell an 80 call, a statistical calculation would show the probability of reaching that 80 strike as if the price movement started at its current price (75), and of course wont take into account the run its already had.

    Phil has talked about this sort of thing — in considering a generally mean-reverting system you can predict when a price is getting stretched and when probabilities really start to lean towards it reverting to its mean — the trick is knowing what its mean was in the first place ! Raw probability calculations dont do this — they predict price distribution based on the current price being the mean. Probability calculations are great to use, but even better if you can use them in correct context of where the price has come from.

    Sometimes its revealing to plot a 100% linear regression channel on a chart, if you have that capability. Prophet.net has this capability. I dont know if stockcharts does.

  350. djczing

    Wow Phil – I like the new page design !

    I ran the new IP address through the DNS system — it resolves to

    123494-web1.www.philstockworld.com

    So those who are afraid of raw IP addresses can use that name.
    ————————————-

    [root@workdog Level-0]# host 72.32.68.243
    243.68.32.72.in-addr.arpa domain name pointer 123494-web1.www.philstockworld.com

  351. Yev

    Wow, AAPL over 163 after hours, does anyone see news somewhere

  352. djczing

    Other than Micro$oft appointing some joker to oversee the Zune project (today, 16:55), I see nothing on the dow news wire.

    15:39 — the CW network is gonna give itunes folks one week of free episode downloads

  353. djczing

    Wow – transports (DJT, IYT) have been bumpin their head on their 200-day since august. Today they launched from the 50-day, and closed /above/ resistance, above the 200-day. Doesnt jive with bad durable goods numbers, but .. I guess dont fight the tape eh ?

    The stock market /cant/ go down.

  354. biodieselchris

    yeah – the good ol’ glory days of 5:30 per mile. The pace car was an SUV too (good choice guys). Idiots.

  355. mrl14

    So do we starting loading up on GOOG Oct Calls in the 630-670 range? GOOG reports the day before expiry right?

  356. Greg

    djczing – railroads were up big today: BNI, KSU

  357. Phil

    AAPL or someone got a good decision on digital copyrights – great news for ITunes.

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