Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Monday Market Madness

Up up an away!

Super Market is back in action.  Faster than an accellerating debt crisis, more powerful than the Wall Street bears, able to leap rational skepticism in a single bound.

Unfortunately, that S on the maket’s chest stands for the dollar, which is down 1% today in foreign trading as a .25 Fed cut seems to be a sure thing and many bets are being placed on .50 OR MORE as the United States seeks to become this decade’s Brazil, where the market looked like a really great investment too, right up until it collapsed.

But there’s no sense in dwelling on that now or on the $93 oil or the dollar at 76 (all-time low) or the Euro’s all-time high or the possible unwinding of the carry trade or gold punching through $800 or the fact that earnings (with 57% of the S&P reporting) show shocking weakness in the US that is being offset by foreign growth.  Nope, we’re not going to talk about any of that as it’s time to party like it’s Jan 13th 2000 (5 days before the collapse).  This is kind of like 11:45 on New Year’s eve when we’re all a little tired (those of us who are parents that is) but we pull it together for the big event (in this case the Fed on Wednesday) but, once that ball drops and the band goes home, that party ends really fast!

No, today is a day for investing in YHOO (got ‘em) and seeing what else gets a good run on a day when the markets should gain a full point based solely on the decline of the dollar.  Even Warren Buffett left the country last week to spend his money before it became worthless.  Buffett also said to CNBC that the chance of us heading into a recession at this point is "fairly significant," something that has been ignored by the MSM so far. 

Well what does Buffett know?  We’ve got stocks to buy!  The Hang Seng flew up almost 4% today (mainly a gap up) led by financials who rejoiced on the good news by CFC that the mortgage crisis is over.  Sure it’s BS but. just like any good party, anything is an excuse for another toast!  The Hang Seng ended the day at 31,586, up 50% in 60 days and the Nikkei rose 1%, up 192 to 16,698 – still well off it’s July high of 18,282 despite good earnings from heavy industry and financials.  Energy stock led China higher with CEO adding 9% and PTR up 3.2%.

I made a mistake in the Weekly Wrap-Up, I said we had 20 naked puts and 9 naked calls.  That would be bad!  As Willie Wonka liked to say: "scratch that, reverse it."  I think we’ll be really please with that mix this morning but, if we don’t make 1% gains against a week dollar, I’ll be either covering or simply taking things off the table ahead of the Fed, concentrating our firepower on the Dow strangle, which should be lots of fun this week.

I still don’t trust the brokers, we dumped our naked GS calls and BSC is well covered and, if I’m right about them you can move the doomsday calendar forward to January 15th, 2000 but we’ll continue to party like it’s the 13th until we get a good reason to switch to light beer.  Toshiba’s net profit jumped 18% with nuclear power leading their growth with a 100% increase – very good for our CCJ positions long-term!

Over in Europe, they are ignoring UBS’ forecast of a $600M loss as it’s "only" as bad as expected.  EU steel makers are attempting to get tariffs placed on Chinese imports, something that will be good for MT and many of our own steel companies, including our AKS play, where we have our Dec $55s.

I have nothing positive to say about the US markets except that they are going up.  This is not a reason for us to commit additional capital but let’s enjoy the ride while we can while, at all times, being aware of the nearest emergency exit.  We are absolutely going to continue putting 30% of our gains into focus puts and I’ll have a couple of new ones later and this week but WYNN is moving into contention at $168 and XOM is giving us another cheap shot at the puts so those are my major contenders until I get a good look at China stocks.

Let’s have fun but, as always, let’s be careful out there!

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. BillBigD

    The original Alibaba got his gold from just 40 thieves. This Alibaba seeks to make its gold from 1.2Bn Chinese. VERY VERY CLEVER. Any longer Yahoo plays?

  2. djczing

    You mean the 10kp and 25kp are /real/ money ?? I just assumed they were advertising tools because I didnt think it possible that those kind of gains could be made week-in and week-out.

    Why do I want to learn how to make 3-10% per month when a simple trade-following system could garner me the kind of gains in your portfolios ? Youll be another Goldman Sachs in no time at that rate Phil.

    Thats some incredible performance – Im gonna have to follow those a little closer I guess.

  3. marathonman

    Phil..you said “As to the last, I cannot for the life of me understand the logic of NOT selling calls against stocks.”

    with a stock that you think will rise (like Yahoo) is selling the puts for premium a good idea as well?

    Thanks

  4. Ray

    Fasten your seatbelts, and keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle as we prepare for our nausea-inducing ride!!

  5. Optrader

    NVDA puts-Sold 1/2 in intial excitement.

  6. doubleclick

    Is anyone having problems loading the Ameritrade site?

  7. JPL

    Doubleclick – so far so good for me with Ameritrade.

  8. doubleclick

    Ah, it’s working now.

  9. mrl14

    So are we buying some YHOO?

  10. Optrader

    AGU-1/2 out.

  11. djczing

    I think people have a problem selling calls against stocks because they dont like seeing em go in the money — its not readily apparent to the average guy that time premium is the objective – and when you buy a stock cuz you think its going /up/, its hard to sell calls against it, and for the average guy who has 3 or 400 shares selling calls far enough out so they wont go ITM doesnt seem to garner enough premium to make it worth the trouble. Of course its the accumulation of premium thats the key — but im just sayin …

  12. Phil

    YHOO – I just commented that there’s some sell the news action this morning but I’m not sure how long it will last. I’m glad to be covered and we’ll try to take 1/2 off when the selling abates.

    As someone mentioned the last $10KP went down 40% at some point so I do get very uncomfortable having people just follow whatever trade is in there as very few people can gut out a loss like that.

    Selling, puts – answered in last post but there’s no protection in it for you so it’s just gambling.

    Wow, Yahoo with a huge sell-off, this is great!

  13. Demetrius Michael

    Yahoo is sketchy, I rather buy lulu at 44

  14. ozzi997

    what YHOO are we buying here.

  15. Phil

    Oh this is great assuming people paid attention to my weekend comments and cashed the naked Yahoo positions this morning! For those of you with covers, this looks like it might be a nice bottom but I’d rather see it test $33 before buying in (Jan $35s, now $2.56 are my favorite new entry). XXX

  16. Phil

    WFR flying, SOX doing OK (I can’t say well until they get back to 480).

    EBAY getting hit on Alibaba success.

    Gold stocks flying as dollar goes down the drain.

    SPWR going nuts.

    WYNN goign nuts.

    BIDU going nuts.

  17. Albo

    AKAM moving up nicely.
    Thanks, Opt!

  18. bmb

    Phil

    Have AAPL jan 170/Nov 175 spread, any suggestions? Down to 2.5 premium

  19. Legh

    Phil, Are you buying YHOO?

  20. Optrader

    CROX-New ATH

  21. windywheel

    good morning phil,
    i have a strategy question regarding buying back callers
    you wrote:

    “WFR – yes, when you sell calls and they have spectacular earnings, you need to try to pick them off right at the open, while you can still catch a few sleepy sellers (some people just ask for a double and are happy to get it). ”

    wouldn’t waiting until the opening premium gets deflated be a better time to buy back the callers? or if it were a naked position, wouldn’t the open be the best time to sell calls against it, when the premium is highest?

    the statement confused me. thanks in advance.

  22. Optrader

    AKAM-I took 1/2 here at $39. Chart is looking good though.

  23. trestles

    Hi Phil,

    What’s your plan on DRYS? Still want to hold into the Fed report?

    Thanks

  24. Sohrab

    Phil – Is it a good play to get into CROX before earnings? If yes, any suggestions?

  25. Phil

    LVS – taking out putters here, will wait a bit to resell. Rolling up Jan $135 puts to $145 puts for $4 XXX also, rolling Dec $125 calls to 2x Dec $140s (+$3.50) and rolling Nov $120 caller to 2x $135s (-$2.50) XXX in $25KP and $10KP

  26. jon

    well you certainly got your YHOO $33 test quickly…

  27. fredrang

    Marathonman: Puts – I like selling Puts to collect premium on stocks where I’d love to own the shares lower. I never sell Puts on junky companies with the assumption that they’ve bottomed. I will sell Naked Puts but Naked Calls can be scary if your company is in an area subject to takeovers whether actual or rumored.

  28. Phil

    Don’t forget if you are stuck with the YHOO Nov $30 caller, now is a great time to roll him to the Dec $32.50s for .40 or less (assuming you have April $30s).

  29. MrN

    Yahouch!

  30. MrN

    RAIL – anyone betting on a bottom w/ Cramer, Buffet (rails) etc. Nice v. pop this am

  31. edro

    Phil,

    Fires last week restricted my trading, we were evacuees for 5 days.

    I wound up with 50 DIA Nov133 Puts bot at 2.15 (as part of mattress play) now worth 0.69.

    Should I roll these up? To Decembers?

    Or just sell…..

    Thanks

    Edro

  32. Courtney

    Called Away ???
    Called Away ???

    Phil,

    I’m short SHLD Nov 135’s against Mar 140’s, and those 135’s are getting deeper and deeper into the money. They’re premium paying machines, though. Do I really need to worry about being called away, or should I be rolling to the 140’s anyway?

    Thanks!

  33. Mark

    BMC has a nice cup and handle going on… me likey… and thanks Jared / Phil for reading my two cents email. It’s probably stuff you read all the time so thanks for humoring me! ;)

  34. Albo

    Just joined you Optrader – out of 1/2 of AKAM.
    Stock filling gap?

  35. Legh

    Bought 10 yhoo Jan 35 at 2.25

  36. Greg

    MrN: I’ve4 been watching RAIL, but liked KSU better. Athough I sold my KSU Jan 40 calls two weeks ago for breakeven, got spooked.

  37. jon

    Phil, I’ve already been in the YHOO Nov 32.5s for a while and April 20s.. would you advise going to the Dec 35s and lock in a pretty substantial profit that I already have? I’m 3:2 long right now.

  38. jon

    sry, meant to say i have nov 32.5 callers in case not clear

  39. Demetrius Michael

    SHLD looks interesting on the daily…. Just really sketchy playing things before rates…

  40. Optrader

    YHOO-I am in as well, bought the Jan 35 at 2.27

  41. Legh

    May have to dollar cost average if YHOO keeps dropping.

  42. Shahir

    Optrader
    Did you buy anything to hedge your yahoo calls???

  43. Phil

    AAPL – I wouldn’t toss out the insurance just yet unless you want to go to Apr $175s at $29.50 and roll the caller to the Dec 180s for $14, that’s a net cost of about $4 but well worth it to buy 2 months of space and put your caller into a higher premium.

    SLB still doggin it.

    YHOO – as above, I can’t wait to buy more but I’m also very patient.

    WFR – a little complicated so we should discuss at night. To me it was very clear that those calls would go way past $6 so I was thrilled to take them out at $4, I do realize that seems contrary to the concept of “Never buy out a caller into the initial excitement” but that’s why that statement isn’t a rule, it just sounds like it should be based on Rule #1. I had a pretty good idea those calls weren’t coming down AND I also knew that if I was wrong, I could sell higher calls to cover so these things are very situationally dependent.

    DRYS – all puts. This is a very pathetic rally on a 1% dollar drop, I’m more inclined to give up on calls here than puts. DRYS Nov $135 puts have a $14 basis, down .50 after a few rolls, not something I’m going to spend time fretting over.

    CROX – it that today? I’ll try to find a nice condor for it but I wouldn’t want to make a directional bet as the options are just too pricey (but the Dec $62.50 puts at $3.90, selling the Nov $65 puts for $3 seem fairly attractive but I think we can do better with a combo).

    YHOO getting close to a buy, should hold $31.50 at worst so no harm in offering $4 for the Apr $32.50s XXX The sale would, of course be the current $30s, now $3 if it keeps heading down.

  44. MrN

    SU – still going to roll to 110 puts?

  45. Cap

    well, I posted on the wrong page about LVS being a good short ….

  46. daveo

    Phil – On the LVS spread in the 10kp – While you may have ~18k in the 10KP I only have about $6500. I missed some of the nuances on the early RIMM play. So, I don’t have the margin to roll the long Dec 125s up. OXPS won’t let me put in an order to roll the spread up by 2x. It complains that a condor must have equal number of contracts for all legs. Any suggestions?

  47. MrN

    yhoo adding at each support level on the way down, next stop?

  48. Optrader

    NVDA-Breaking $33 !!

  49. Fabregas

    Phil,

    C – I started scaling into some 2009 $45s early last week and DDed last Thu to lower my cost basis to $4.3 (now $4.6). Do you think financials can make another run tomorrow or Wed morning? Should I pick up Nov $42.5 or $45 caller? Thanks!

  50. tesorohaters

    phil, are you still advising that UTHR play? huge spreads

  51. Optrader

    AGU-Bought back the calls sold this morning.

  52. Optrader

    Shahir, I already have NVDA, KLAC and CRM puts to hedge the YHOO calls. I am also daytrading the Qs.

  53. Phil

    Puts – Oh selling puts naked is 100% my favorite way to buy (or even better, not buy) a stock. That’s very different from selling puts against a stock I already own, which is a double bet on the same direction. It’s a strategy best suited for buying blue chips, companies you don’t mind holding for a while with a 10%-20% paper loss.

    Rails are a bet on a strong economy but also a gas saver so it’s hard to say. I like them when they are down, not up.

    That may be it for YHOO’s fall.

    Edro – wow that sucks, on both ends! DIA $133 puts are obviously pretty dead rather than sell those, I would roll them up to the $138 puts for $1.20 and buy 50 $139 calls for $1.83 to strangle the Dow ahead of the Fed. I’d start with your roll because looking at APPL, GOOG, BKX (GOAX) and the overall makrets (woo hoo on TSO by the way) I think we’re going down.

  54. Jedda62

    AMLN – Phil, what’s your take on this one. I’m looking at a 5/4 Apr 50 @ 6.35 – Nov 45′s @ 4.85 for a net debit of $1385. The IV differential is 93 to 56.

  55. Demetrius Michael

    Idiots make money, professionals make money, and amateurs get slaughtered.

  56. JPL

    BBD

    NOV – is behaving well – what are you looking for – news to get out or $76? Thanks

  57. dday97

    GS – LOL, keep climbing boy.
    NOV – took my profits this morning at 74.25.
    OIH – weakening as we go

  58. parchesia

    DM-that’s awesome! LOL

  59. Courtney

    SHLD SHLD SHLD

    Phil,

    Is it get out of these Nov 135′s? There’s still about $4.00 in premium left. Roll up to 140′s, or out to Dec. 145′s?

  60. dday97

    Don’t have any Q’s right now, waiting to see which way from 54 it really wants.

  61. BillBigD

    NOV-JBL, I took a little off this morning right around 74.25ish.
    FMCN-Jumped on in the retest.
    PCU- took some off When up 5, added to RIO

  62. marathonman

    Fredreng/Phil--Thanks

  63. Scott

    Phil,

    Any plays on XOM here. I have 90 Puts at 1.90. DD? or does it go higher into earnings.

  64. Dan ellis

    I forgot about my 5 BIdu puts 320′s cost basis 22 now 6.30

    should I dd
    roll to Jan 300

    or buy 10 Dec 400?

    Thx

  65. rcha

    PHIL or anyone,
    I rolled my YHOO caller from Nov 30 to Nov 32.50(not to Dec 32.50 as suggested). Because, with the downturn, at that point, 30 had a premium of .60 while 32.50 had a premium of 1.20. Am I thinking right here?

  66. Phil

    FSLR – rolling Dec $130 calls to Jun 150s for + $3, these are great rolls as June is very cheap on this stock (this is part of a spread with Nov $150s, now $13.30 and is XXX as a new spread).

    SHLD – we don’t know earnings but I wouldn’t give up $4 in premium just yet, when his premium is 50% better than yours, that’s when you need to think about a roll, otherwise what are you giving up the downside protection for? Don’t you just love this stock?!?

    BMC – I wouldn’t bet against them, great growth.

    YHOO/Jon – I always advise locking in profit! If you have a roll function, put in a good price and see if you get it. At this stage for everyone I advocate taking out 1/2 Yahoo callers and giving it an hour to test $32 but reselling those callers if it dows break below it. This costs the amount of your commissions in and out plus maybe .25 of caller value so you need to decide if you are willing to risk it but I sure am. XXX Also, since we are up 50% on our callers, there should be a 10% upside stop on them.

  67. workdog3

    Phil, your philosophy on rolling down is if you can do $5 of position for $2 then go for it. How about rolling your caller up once he’s ITM. I can roll my FCX $110 caller (who’s $7.50 ITM) up to the $115s for $3. Is this a good play at this point?

  68. marathonman

    Phil/Fred Re Puts: so today I could sell 5 AAPL Nov 170 puts at 1.20 (for 600) and if the stock drops there (where I would love to get it) I could then buy 500 shares. If it didnt drop and the premium expired I would pick up the 600. It sounds like a great way to play dips contingent upon the stock being one that you would own at that price. If you don’t get the stock you still get the premium. Only question is how do you protect against a catastrophic drop like WCG?

  69. BillBigD

    EDU-shocking! $$$

  70. fredrang

    Naked Puts – I’m with you…I sold TIE Puts for a long time and finally let them be put to me back in August. This one is for the college fund. Another great one is VLO puts if you follow energy. That’s the way I’ve built a big position in VLO. I think my Average Cost is in the high $20′s for VLO. I learned my lesson about not selling Puts on lousy companies for the high premiums. I got burned big time once…got greedy on a company (did very little research) with a nice premium and it set me back nearly 6 months…best lesson I ever learned, take those small losses early and know the underlying story from your own research.

  71. marathonman

    Phil…FSLR XXX new spread…buying the June 150 at 36.00 Selling the Nov 150 at 13.40?

  72. marathonman

    Fred…when you got burned the “puts” were put to you and you had to buy them on a stock that had plummeted?

  73. Phil

    SU – tough call with the Dollar way up here. Yes to the Dec $110s as that’s $2.30 but the Nov $105s aren’t worth rolling so the solution it to roll the Decembers and sell the Nov $110 puts for $4.60, double what I’d get by selling my Nov $105s and they stay in as downside protection for now (they have a basis of $3.60).

    LVS is always a good short, now it’s a great short!

    OXPS – call them and have them do it manually, as long as the end result is ok margin-wise they should do it for you. Better hurry before LVS falls!

    WYNN – Must sell $175s for $10! Jan $180s for $14 if you can’t sell naked but I’m risking this one! XXX for high margin accounts.

  74. Demetrius Michael

    marathonman – I like your thinking! FSLR is going higher!

  75. MrN

    Dollar just a bounce? Turned down again, gold up early but resting.

  76. marathonman

    DM….thanks, trying to get the ENTIRE picture here!

  77. rcha

    WOW,
    LVS spread UP 30%.

  78. trestles

    Hi Phil,

    Re: Mattress plays when do you start looking at the Dec DIA puts vs. Nov? If you are looking at Decs what price do you target this far out?

    Thanks

  79. MrN

    Man I hate those “lousy” stocks I used to trade: OSTK, GROW. Good thing I started leaving them alone last month! :(

  80. fredrang

    Marathonman: Exactly what happened, but company was lousy. I’ve never had this happen on a company that I really have researched and want to own. If you have some hesitation you can just do a spread to protect from a total melt down as it also requires less margin. For example (not recommending this one) but you could sell VLO December $67.50 Puts for $2.10 and buy the $62.50 Puts for .90, net credit to you of $1.20. It gives you the right to sell @ $62.50 what you had put to you @ $67.50 so if the stock opened at $50 your loss would be limited.

  81. FilmFlam

    I didn’t reallize that LVS was just a tracking stock for WYNN, or is it the other way around. Those charts are identical.

    Like this as a cheaper(???) way to buy puts on FXI. I think Macau revenue may drop if FXI crashes.

  82. marathonman

    Fred…thanks for the understanding, I was frustrated not getting AAPL a couple of times so I actually would like to get it for 170 (especially after upgrading to Leopard) WCG scared me so I really liked your spread ides, yes a little less profit potential but a LOT more sleep and a LOT bigger college fund!

  83. MrN

    KRY – Guess that answers my question from Friday! I’m still naked and lovin’ it!

  84. MrN

    Cut off – here’s news

    MrN
    October 26th, 2007 at 12:13 pm | Permalink
    KRY – Anyone follow? I’m holding LEAPS naked – did they permit or is this rumor enough to sell?
    Impacts GRZ also.

    Crystallex International Corp. (KRY) of Toronto said the Venezuelan National Assembly’s Commission of Economic Development has published a report concluding that Crystallex has complied with the requirements needed to obtain environmental permits for the Las Cristinas gold project.

    The mining company said the report also points out that the delay in the granting of the permits puts a significant burden on Crystallex, the project’s operator, and “delays a great part of the benefits for the community.”

    The company said the committee’s chairman reiterates demands to the country’s Ministry of Environment to grant the corresponding license, thus allowing the mining development to begin.

    The report confirms the company’s position, Crystallex said.

  85. fredrang

    Marathonman: I did have one other experience with Naked Puts which was scary but worked out fine. In the spring I was short 120 contracts of CSCO and I had them put to me a week before expiraton. I took delivery since I was comfortable with the stock and it worked out fine but it was eye opening. I know I could have turned it around and sold it just after it was put to me but owning 12,000 shares of CSCO wasn’t my plan.

    Being the cynic that I am and slightly paranoid, I wondered whether it is more likely to have Puts assigned to you if they are naked vs those who have spreads set up?

  86. BillBigD

    SLT-$26 oh yes. My next PCU I hope

  87. QUARRYMAN

    FilmFlam

    Interesting thought on LVS as a cheaper proxy for FXI puts!

  88. CMan

    Phil,
    1. LVS:
    Is this a good play for a new entry?
    2. Is it time to roll AMZN dec 95 caller (Jan 95 / Dec 95 spread original cost 4.77/3.8)

  89. Demetrius Michael

    lol entire picture?.. Not much to say,

    We know with higher oil = higher alternative energies.

    Therefore:

    rate cut => lower dollar => higher oil

    corporations doing too well => oil manipulation => higher oil => rate cut => higher oil

    guy we never knew existed, gets killed in africa => higher oil

    XOM’s CEO lost a bet on the nick’s game => needs money => raises demand => higher oil.

    In energies, it never matters how good the CEO’s are… or the company, or anything… What matters is the price of oil and everything else relative to it.

    I’m a different trader than I a lot of people, so I would take stops below 145 on this company… And keep tightening if it trades higher. Not a bad risk / reward…. You can do that hedging stuff too, but I wouldn’t sell calls until I think it topped on it’s channel at least.

  90. FilmFlam

    Phil, what do you use as a proxy for BKX?

  91. marathonman

    12,000 shares (cough, cough, hack hack…) Good Morning!!! that was the other concern the fact that it can be “put” at any time, again it comes down to wanting to own the stock regardless so that you are getting the opportunity to purchase at the price that makes sense and lower your average if you do buy it.

  92. Cap

    took (sold) the WYNN Nov 180 for 8.20.

  93. FilmFlam

    Also, has the VLO indicator been holding up? I haven’t heard chatter about that in a while.

  94. jim

    Anybody what does it mean to sell short?
    sell the shares?
    buy puts?
    sell the calls?

    sorry new to trading

  95. FilmFlam

    DJUA breaking out of a 5 month base???

  96. ci69fc

    Did anyone see the range on federal funds on the 25th of October.

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

    Its 4.65 to 15

    What is up w/ that.

  97. Demetrius Michael

    VLO – No, it’s been useless for months… Until cracks sort themselves out, I wouldn’t look at it.

  98. Optrader

    LH-Phil, what do you think of them? There is a very bullish article about them on Notable Calls and they look very cheap at this level. I started buying some as a long-term bet but would love to hear what you think.

  99. richard marble

    FSLR may go to the moon, but don’t mistake it for any kind of fundamental play. I don’t care what the price of oil is, it’s not that hard for other companies to come in and start making solar panels. They don’t have any transformational tech that I am aware of, so long term their margins will likely just be average. Currently trading at a price/ sales of 46 (and climbing) this stock too will flame out in spectacular fashion. This does not mean, of course that it won’t first go to 300, but I think it’s important to keep some perspective.

  100. FilmFlam

    Did Cramer anoint VMW as the new fourth horseman? If not, I would like to beat him to the punch again.

  101. mSquare

    KRY – Selling (again) Leaps against 1/3rd of stock held as I think it is one more time no permit…

  102. Jedda62

    BillBD – SLT, are you buying stock, option, or both. the farthest out are the Junes.

  103. Demetrius Michael

    Jim – Short is the same as saying “selling what you don’t own”.. So depending on the context, it could mean either calls / puts / shares… Since this is an option community, it usually means calls / puts…

    With that said, if we say “I would short XYZ” then it just means we’re betting on the downside… You could either buy puts or sell calls at your own discretion. (that is if it’s not specified).

    Hope that helps.

  104. Mark

    Sooooo WYNN reports tomorrow… things that make you go hmmmm….

  105. jim

    DM
    exactly what i was looking for thanks!

  106. biodieselchris

    BKUNA the big winner today.

    maybe articles like this are getting people’s attention. Paying mortgage on credit cards? Bad news, not even a negative fed rate would help most of these people.

  107. mSquare

    YHOO – Do not currently have any position. Is Apr $32.50 @ $4.00 the right place to start accumulating or go for Jan $32.50/$35s?

  108. Mark

    WYNN strangle, 195 calls by 155 puts? hmmm…

  109. MrN

    mSquare – did you see any news? If you’re right is selling front mo. calls too dangerous against leaps. I’ve done it before but it made me sweat.

  110. FilmFlam

    bio, I couldn’t finish that article, I was laughing too hard that the featured woman, drowning in debt, and living beyond her means was a COMPLIANCE OFFICER AT A REGIONAL BANK. Non-specifically, “at a small bank on Chicago’s blue-collar South Side.” We have to find and short that bank.

    LOL, think she is doing her job very well under the constant threat of bankruptcy. Ok, maybe not LOL to most people, but I have no problem laughing at her.

  111. CMan

    Phil,
    Scratch my question above on AMZN – I misread the price.

  112. FilmFlam

    Holy Railroad Top, Phil-man!

    If YHOO finishes the day below 32 and if the volume picks up a bit, you will have a textbook railroad top formation, and even though everyone is bullish on railroads these days, that ain’t good. If that is how the day ends, I will reiterate, then buy some 30 puts as a momentum play for a few days. Any down move should be a test of the 200dma at $28.

  113. Phil

    C – I’d cover at least half. You go into an ’09 for the income, silly not to rent it out then, no matter what you think of direction.

    UTHR – if you can get a fill, not to chase. Prices are very different now than what we looked at. This spread is working fantastically if you entered the short leg first as a mo play!

    AMLN – already had earnings and can’t break $47.50 – not a good sign. The spread is good though as the $45s carry an insane premium.

    SHLD – see above, watch the premium.

    YHOO very funny down here. No mention of Alibaba on CNBC – doesn’t that seem strange?

    XOM puts, at this oil price you have to wait. Earnings on Thurs otherwise your puts would be a dime so maybe best to roll to Dec and hope to sell Nov on a dip for a good price. XXX

    BIDU – as I said,it’s a relentless roll to stay in it, I’m in the $350 puts at a $17 basis, loss not to bad at this price ($15.30). Remember the theory is that I’m happy to pay $3.50 for each $10 of position improvement, next week we need to roll to Dec but then we can sell some other sucker the Novembers and get some money back.

    YHOO – better for a longer discussion but yes, it’s good to spend a little to push him out of the money in exchange for more premium but you are giving up downside protection. In this case though, you’ve already killed the guy and there’s not much left to gain and you can always re-roll if it turns down so it’s a good decision if you have time to watch it and money to spend.

    FCX – same concept as you have to recognize your protection trade off. Unless you feel this is a special offer and won’t be available tomorrow, then you have little to lose by waiting. Next week these decisions become more important as the clock ticks down on November callers and we don’t want to miss a chance to grab some premiums. Short answer, I’m willing to pay 35% for a roll, with a $10 roll you can often get $3.50 but it’s hard to get $2 on a $5 roll so I’ll pay $2.25 but not $2.50 unless I have a really good reason to.

    All right! XOM finally got a Supreme Court stacked with enough morons to screw over all those poor people in Alaska after 20 years of delays… It’s a really great day in corporate law!

    AAPL puts – you don’t protect like that. That’s why I said it’s really a blue chip strategy but, if you were really, really, really going to buy it, then sell 5 $180 puts for $3.50 ($2,050) and put a stop on them at $5, where it was when the stock was $184.50 at Thursday’s close. That stop would cost you $450, a lot less than you would have lost if you had 500 shares that dropped $2. Also, time is on your side so every day it is harder and harder for your putter to get to $5 (by the 16th, Apple would have to be at $175). You can up that number to $6 or $7 depending on how badly you want Apple as every $1 you are willing to pay your caller is about $2 more that Apple would have to fall before you pay him. There are fancier strategies too where you could roll him rather than buy him out but let’s stick to the basics…

  114. Demetrius Michael

    richard marble – you don’t care about the price of oil?!

    It’s not hard growing corn, but I’m not too sure you’ll be able to compete against Archer or monsanto. It’s not hard making clothing, but are you going to compete against NKE, CROX, LULU, UA, COH?

    How about a computer?… Not hard to build one of those, some ram, a HD, motherboard, power supply, a case, PCI-express video card (or AGP), and done. But does that mean you’ll be the next dell computers?

    You could say making crack is easy, some baking soda and cocaine, but you’re not the next glaxo.

    You’re right, it’s just a play. The government subsidize these companies to stay a float, because there’s a lot of political pressure in keeping America Green…

    But in terms of actual solar engineering, it’s actually very complicated… The efficiency in solar cells are so bad that it’s actually more expensive to harness power from the largest fusion reactor in the solar system (our sun), than it is to burn crude… How ridiculous is that?…

    Soon we’ll start making biocells that uses photosynthesis to create energy…. Then the game would change entirely. But until then, I would trade it higher with oil.

  115. Demetrius Michael

    maybe I went a little over board with the examples. I’m not trying to harp on you buddy, I’m sorry.

  116. biodieselchris

    Flim, it’s a mixed bag of emotions I feel for these people sometimes. I mean, how would the average Joe Sixpack really know how much financial danger they were putting themselves into by buying a house in 2006?

    Time to go after CFC again. These trades are no-brainers. I could even make a bumper sticker out of it “Every pump. You Dump.” Or, less eloquently but more realistically, “Every pump, you wait for the premiums to deflate, then buy puts and make a pretty good profit with little risk 9 out of 10 times.”

  117. BillBigD

    FCX- Was I asleep at the wheel? Phil did you do a trade on FCX?
    SLT- I am in March 20′s. Sold DEC 17.50 on Friday. Loser !!

  118. Demetrius Michael

    Flim – Hence my YHOO is sketch comment lol

    LOL Bio. Though, they do have a 1/4 trillion worth of assets… On another rate cut, that’s a big deal for them.

  119. Legh

    Phil, I have boycotted EXXON for 20 years. I hope more people would also boycott EXXON and Mobil.

  120. Demetrius Michael

    Legh how?

  121. BillBigD

    KC-VIP sorry. LOL

  122. biodieselchris

    the Wii is totally fantastic. First gaming console I’ve bought since the original NES. It’s been out for a year and you still have to get into Target pretty early in the morning to get one. The gamecube was competing with the likes of Xbox and Playstation which targeted mostly kids and gamer types and nintendo went after completely new markets and just blew it out. These things are going into nursing homes.

    Sucks I was too squeamish to buy a pink sheet ADR because NTDO has done the 13 to 75 2-year thing. Oh well.

  123. biodieselchris

    Legh – boycott them all. Make your own gas.

  124. Legh

    Don’t buy their gas.

  125. Demetrius Michael

    When did you buy the Wii?

  126. Demetrius Michael

    Legh – Their gas is everywhere

  127. MSM

    Opt Trader (and anyone else),

    Do you follow or trade ISRG? I don’t know what to make of today’s 10 buck drop.

    Thanks

  128. mSquare

    MrN,

    KRY – I looked for news and only found the Friday story about VZ Parlament etc. So think this is one more time of no permit in the near future. Not selling near month as not worth the premium. Have done OK selling LEAPS at $5 strike and covering when I gain 40% or so when no further news and no permit.

    I do not mind writing calls at $5 strike as I think if they do get the permit in the near term (say by Nov), they’d spike up to $6-ish. They’d have to borrow a lot or sell themselves to a bigger operator to much higher.

  129. MrN

    mSq – Thanks.

    MGPI – was it someone here I was chatting with on this one?

  130. KC

    BillBigD – that’s okay on VIP. PCLN doing well. You planning on re-entering VDSI?

  131. Phil

    FSLR Jun/Nov – yes, 30% return in month 1! You must roll with your caller if it moves more than $10 though.

    DIA puts – I don’t like having less than 6 weeks so next week we move to Dec, usually whatever is $3 BUT there are 12/31 contracts for an extra quarter and I think that’s worth it for 10 more days. Right now that’s the $137 puts but by next week we should be able to get tighter to the money.

    LVS/FXI – Good logic except for betting on FXI to go down… never happens.

    KRY – I don’t think that’s an approval, just progress. I’m not against this company, I just can’t see gambling on the politics of Vz although, as I said last week, a Canadian company has a much better chance than a US one.

    LVS – very high risk with earnings on Weds but fun to play.

    AMZN – I never ended up with that spread. I have the naked $90s but you’re up .70 on a $1 play, that’s pretty good! Whenever you are up 50% on a tight spread, it’s time to set tight stops. Rolling is fun but so is cash! You could roll yourself down to the $90s for $2.30 and roll your caller down to the Dec $90s for $2.30 as an even move to improve your position but you increase your upside risk with a downside payoff of maybe $3 if all goes well.

    “guy we never knew existed, gets killed in africa => higher oil” – ROFL DM!

    Meanwhile, here comes my SU puts!

    BKX = XLF more or less

    WYNN – holy cow, how did I miss that? Better play than mine Cap!

    VLO rule – hasn’t failed yet but now we have an interesting decoupling of the refiners, as if someone finally figured out they have to buy oil to make gas rather than getting it from elves in a hollow tree…

    Selling short – all of the above. We generally use the term for any downward bet. True shorting is “borrowing” shares at today’s price and hoping to give them back later at a lower price. The short side of our leaps is whatever leg we are covering with while we shorted the WYNN $175 calls, meaning we sold the calls naked, hoping they lose value before the end of the month.

    UTHR – now is a good time to enter the long side! XXX

  132. Jeffro

    Good morning,

    Roll suggestions on my caller please…

    1 RIO Jan 09 35 cost 7.50 currently 9.10
    -2 RIO NOV 37.50 cost 0.6 currently 1.45

    Thanks

  133. irished

    BBD
    Owe you fellow. Made a decent 4 figure return on my investment in Nov that you suggested last week. Maybe could have made more but I like nice profits.
    Thanks. YOUR THE MAN!!!

  134. Phil

    UTHR – oh, also the time to cover the short of course! XXX

  135. MrN

    STX – took profits on Nov. I was speculating w/

  136. Demetrius Michael

    IBM – Big blue WOO!

  137. Denis

    OXPS … Looks like it might take a shot at $29 today.

  138. BillBigD

    irished-congrats. You can buy me a cocktail when Phil has his 1 year old ANNV party. LOL
    RIG- looking like it wants to hit $120 before WED #’s

  139. biodieselchris

    when and where is the PSW Xmas party?

  140. biodieselchris

    I’m selling EWH out fo my LTP. The one year chart is just too crazy.

  141. BillBigD

    VMW- $119 up $90 on IPO shares. Unreal! $70 on all others.

  142. Demetrius Michael

    drinks for all my friends!

  143. JPL

    BBD – way to go – and your DO is doing well today – thanks for the NOV!!! Drinks at Phils…

  144. mSquare

    CCJ – They report 10/31. I have two small but rather loosing positions – any way to make it less of a looser or should I hold till after earnings and then re-adjust?

    Long CCJ Jan 60 Call [CCJAL] Cost $3.10 now $1.66
    Short CCJ Nov 45 Call [CCJKI] Cost $3.60 now $7.00

    Yes, I know I should covered earlier! But did make a few $s earlier selling calls against my long position and got too greedy/forgetful on this last one. (I also do not know/have a good automatic way to enter trailing-stop ‘Cover-orders’ on short options)

  145. Demetrius Michael

    CAT – I’m buying this.

  146. Phil

    Fed Funds – a glitch I guess.

    LH – worth a gamble at this price but that’s 2 misses in a row with slowing growth so I wouldn’t bet on a quick comeback. Feb $72.50s at $2.62, selling Dec $70s for no less than $1.90 (.15 Tstop) is not a bad spread to wait on. You may want to upside stop 1/4 of your callers at .50, cheaper than leaving 1/4 naked right off the bat.

    FSLR/Other solar – in the very near future it will occur to their suppliers to bypass them and sell direct, it is becoming just another commodity but, unlike good commodities, it’s not like people HAVE to buy them so it’s ultimately going to be a non-shortage commodity, great for the planet but not so great for the industry.

    WYNN – I can’t wait to hear why the doubled since July! $9Bn in market cap added to a company with $2Bn in revenues and about $400M in profits and $3Bn in debt (and WYNN is the one I like!). LVS has $8Bn in debt and even less income and both companies rely entirely on the Property Value of casinos they bought and developed at what is very obviously the top of a huge real estate bubble.

    If you treat the casinos like rentable real estate, you would be crazy to value them at more than 15x revenues which would be $33Bn for LVS (Market cap $51Bn) but $21Bn for WYNN (Market Cap $19Bn) so if WYNN turns out to not be worth $175 then no way is LVS worth $140 (or $100 for that matter).

  147. BillBigD

    POT- Here goes round 2
    CIEN- ATH

  148. MrN

    reinharden – Is this your opening move on FNSR? May have found a bottom

  149. mrl14

    damn sold my EMC shares way to early lol

  150. Demetrius Michael

    Solar – Phil you could say the same with airlines… Either way, yah I agree, it’s not something to keep indefinitely.

  151. Dmitry-M

    Phil –
    Still naked with YHOO?

  152. Phil

    DRYS just torturing me now!

    YHOO failing!

    Buy Nov $30s for $2.60
    Sell $27.50s for $4.60 (credit $2)
    Buy $27.50 puts for .25
    Sell $30 puts for .85 (credit .60)

    If you can get a $2.60 credit on this spread, it’s a no lose! As long as you have low commissions, this is fun. XXX

  153. MrN

    UTHR good long entry – w/ no position yet, where?

  154. biodieselchris

    CIEN – I have 8 Jan-2008 7.50 calls and they’re only worth 0.40 !

    Damn you reverse splits lol

  155. irished

    BBD
    Sounds good to me. Phil lives in some place called New Jersey and I live in the “great state” of New York. Maybe we can have our reunion at the “Tavern on the Green” in Central Park next summer. Phil will pay for dinner and stuff and I will buy you a drink!! Okay?

  156. Demetrius Michael

    It’s funny that we might actually make money on that PFE joke trade lol.

  157. Demetrius Michael

    I love it!

  158. BillBigD

    COH- not going out of business to today.

  159. Greg

    I’d come to a PSW reunion just to meet all of you characters!

  160. TimidTrader

    You know what? So would I! C’mon you guys, help me make a million so I can afford it.. ;)

  161. Phil

    YHOO Apr $32.50s at $4 is my target. The way it’s acting we need the time! Railroad top or not, there is no reasson to short this stock. In fact, naked selling the $30s for .85 isn’t a bad play if you’re thinking of buying them anyway.

    CFC/Financials – very risky ahead of the Fed to short and it’s not until Weds pm that we get the word so better to wait for a mega-pump rather than betting too much on a top at any given place.

    RIO roll – it would have been nice if you stopped him out with a small loss on the 3 day uptrend (and I know you were ahead at some point!). Try taking half out now otherwise this can get away from you (if I read correctly that you sold 2:1, which is something I never recommend.

    Everything is breaking up now – watch your puts, could be a massive buy in the making!

  162. biodieselchris

    yeah and let’s have it in Seattle ….. Space Needle!

  163. BillBigD

    Reunion- Yes that would be the fun part meeting everyone. But Jersey? No Way! We talked earler about Vegas, Florida resort etc.

  164. dday97

    I’ll be in Vegas in two weeks, I’m always up for Sin city.

  165. biodieselchris

    I hope the Dow shoots for 14,000 this afternoon.

  166. Phil

    I wonder if HET’s $2.8Bn judgement will likk their deal? The stock is holding up but they are in big trouble if sentiment changes.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071029/harrah_s_mohawks.html?.v=4

    Jan $90 puts are just $2.05 – worth a gamble XXX AND, you can sell the Dec $90 puts for more on a very small dip!

  167. irished

    Yeah Seattle sounds good too. Phil can rent a plane or fly us east coasters in his own. My wife and I have been trying to get to the Northwest. Ok,settled all we is a date and send the bill to Phil.

  168. Brian

    LDK. Looks like investors have forgiven that stock and are jumping back on board.

  169. millions07

    biodieselchris
    just ask them to add VMW and BIDU to the Dow and it will be 15000 in couple weeks!

  170. biodieselchris

    10 DIA Nov140 calls (basis 1.38, stop 1.15).

    I gotta go.

    GO DOW!

  171. Greg

    How about a PSW Cruise? Somewhere hot and sunny during the winter months.

  172. irished

    I can do a cruise also. Phil can rent the boat and supply the food. Sounds good to me. Who wants to plan it?

  173. Wayne

    Phil,

    I’ve been trying all day to get that LVS trade rolled and can’t get filled. I have to close the first spread before I can open the new one. The bid/ask on the 120/125 is .80/1.80 and the b/a on the 135/140 is .70/1.30.

    Any suggestions?

  174. Phil

    RUMOR that STJ is interested in HNSN – I’m going to take 2x Dec $40s at $2 and sell 1x Nov $35s at $4.20 and hope the sale isn’t for $40! XXX but risky.

  175. Courtney

    BA

    How did $96.50 become the magic number? This think got boring after earnings last week.

  176. Demetrius Michael

    lol or what about canada, huh guys?… There’s lots of stuff to do here… We have the great lakes! we have health care!

  177. Demetrius Michael

    Courtney – BA boring? Are you kidding me?! Watch this.

  178. Demetrius Michael

    I really think CAT is a nice scale… It’s not going to disappear.

  179. MrN

    Dollar bounce was just a hiccup, back to its path to destruction.

  180. Courtney

    DM – I’m watching BA, but I can’t keep my eyes open – Sominex. Can you fire it up?

    Talk more about CAT. Isn’t that a “healthy economy” stock? The DOW is doing great, but CAT is lagging. Will it follow the climb after Wednesday, or lead the drop? The chart is okay, but the big picture makes me nervous. Thoughts?

  181. ali

    Phil, do you think it is realistic to sell that nov 27.5/30 box on yahoo for 2.60. The max value is 2.50, so it would be a guaranteed .10 profit. Am I right here or mistaken?

  182. Albo

    BBD:

    You are the man ! ! !
    Bought RIO this morning on your comment.
    Made good money on CIEN, but let it get called away. Ugh.
    Christmas party in Jersey why not?
    I spent a month there one weekend.
    Phil, as Don Rickles would say, we kid because we love! ! !

  183. chix0r

    COH play last week:
    bought May COH 37.50 at 4.90 (6.40, +1.50)
    sold Dec COH 37.50 for 1.50 (2.35, -.85)

    With COH rallying to the strike, do we need to roll anything yet or wait to see if it holds this level?

  184. Scott

    Any reason for the spike in MRVL???

  185. BillBigD

    Cruise sounds fun! Navellier and HSU have one. I would love to listen to Phil after he had a few cocktails. LOL

  186. Optrader

    NYX-Back in calls. 1/2 position.

  187. Phil

    GOOG heading south, may take the market with it if it breaks $675!

  188. wincom

    Phil – I would appreciate you comments:

    Bought AKAM May 35 @ 7.77
    Sold AKAM Nov 35 @ 2.05
    Bought AKAM Dec 30put @ 1.64
    The stock was going down when I bought put and sold Nov call. Now that the stock goes up it may not be the best scenario.
    I’m thinking about:
    buying back AKAM Nov 35 @ 4.7
    selling AKAM Dec 40 @ 2.8
    Selling my long AKAM May 35 @ 8.8
    Buying AKAM May 40 @ 6.2

    Question #1: does it make sense to do that?
    #2: what would you recommend to do with AKAM Dec 30 put which has lost already quite a bit of value?

    Thank you

  189. BillBigD

    GRMN-see ya. Took some profits.

  190. MrN

    HET looks like you nailed it Phil! I’m in.

  191. Phil

    XMas party – that’s a good plan!

    CCJ – that’s a very messy position! You have $15 in margin spread so you can roll your caller to 2x the $50s at $3.40 (.65 to him) and roll yourself to 2x the $55s at $3.10 (+$4.50 from you) at a cost of the $5 in margin you save. It’s still an earnings gamble but right now it’s one you absolutely can’t afford to lose. This is by the way, a great example of why large diagonal spreads (with big gaps between you and your caller) are TERRIBLE trades.

    YHOO – the $30 calls don’t go down so I’m not selling them yet (although that’s warped logic). I probably should sell half.. yep, you’re right, I should sell 1/2 for $2.60+ XXX

  192. Demetrius Michael

    CAT – Well CMI Posted a weak Q, so CAT suffered from it, but CAT’s Q wasn’t bad at all (which was forgotten)…

    It’s booming from international markets, and the stock is undervalued @ 74-70, which I think is a very nice 1st entry, with room to accumulate in the 60s…. There’s too much focus on the US side for the stock, and as long as the internationals are growing faster than the US is depreciating, I think we’re OK.

    1 It’s a solid company, so it won’t disappear. Ok we know that.
    2 Rate cuts help the US economy and kills the dollar. Meaning CAT’s machines are cheaper to foreigners, and more affordable to Americans (we loan at cheaper rates).
    3 If we get a pause, then the housing probably bottomed out. Good on the US side, which is CAT’s weakest leg.
    4 If we get a raise, then there will be problems…. But this is an unlikely scenario.

    How’s China doing?.. Well look at FXI over the Quarters… internationals are not slowing. Brazil is doing great too ever since they cleaned up Columbia… EWZ was a ticker I recommended here since it was 60?? I don’t know, ask k1, he probably can find it faster than I can.

    Lets add some quotes from CAT’s CEO:

    “sales and revenues in North America were down 11%. From an end market standpoint, inside North America, it is a very weak picture for many of the industries that we serve. U.S. housing is down and we expect it to continue its decline. Non-residential construction is weak. Coal mining and quarrying are down in the U.S. And on-highway truck engines are down significantly from last year and we do not see much sign of a major turnaround for awhile.”

    Shitty… Hence Bernanke is the deciding factor for the housing market. We’re scaling, not bottom betting.

    lets continue:

    “This was the best quarter for sales and revenues ever, not just the best third quarter. In terms of profit per share, it was the best third quarter in our history and our second-best quarter of any quarter ever. . . The growth was driven by continued and significant strength in sales outside North America, continued strength in a number of key global end markets, like mining, oil and gas, and engines for electric power generation, marine, and industrial applications. Sales and revenues increased 36% in the Europe, Africa, Middle East region, 30% in Asia-Pacific, and 20% in Latin America.”

    The real question is, how low can housing go?

    If we get another 20% decline in housing (which pretty big at this point), that shouldn’t translate into a 20% decline in CAT’s share price… Which is a drop from 75 to 60…. But we’re factoring for it regardless.

  193. Cap

    WYNN … Phil, I give you credit for the idea; I just looked at the strikes and decided that while the 175′s looked good, the 180′s looked better.

  194. BillBigD

    Brazil is doing great too ever since they cleaned up Columbia… WHAT?
    FTI- taking off some before #’s today

  195. jon

    Does anyone have any news on STP that would make it up 11% today? Especially give n they were downgraded this morning?

  196. Mike

    Phil:

    What are your thoughts on SNDK? Is the sell-off complete?

    Buy Jan and sell Nov?

  197. Fan

    YHOO trade…great in theory but max profits on spread is where stock is at $26…but paying my comissions on 2 sets of 50 contracts each ($.75 x 100 x 2; roundtrip) add up to $314 on max gain of $1088…

    Still…great test play. =)

  198. Demetrius Michael

    BBD – Sorry typed too quickly… That didn’t make any sense.

  199. Phil

    UTHR going way down now! What a mess. Very strange action with earnings not ’till Thurs.

    Nov $60 puts were bought at $4.80
    Nov $65 puts were sold at $7.50 (credit $2.70)
    Nov $85 calls were bought at $3.80

    Holding out on selling 20 $80s (currently $6).

  200. parchesia

    If other lenders follow countrywide’s stance and begin to re-negotiate mortgage contracts and take less profit, this could be the beginning of the end of the housing/mortgage recession but again, if others banks begin taking less profit along with countrywide. Housing is still going to be flat for a long time, just the freefall will stop.

  201. Mark

    jon – STP

    Suntech Power-STP volatility Elevated as STP rallies 5% to record high
    STP is recently up $2.28 to $57.44. STP, a developer, manufacturer and marketer
    of solar energy applications, is expected to report EPS on 11/15. Brean Murray
    says “the recent share price appreciation has driven by several key significant
    announcements: a supply agreement with ReneSolar, a supplier agreement with
    Asian Silicon Company Ltd, the company’s opening of a North American office, and
    BIPV contracts in China.” STP over all option implied volatility of 68 is above
    its 26-week average 48 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

  202. FilmFlam

    Had to step out, caught up with comments, some late retorts:

    DM – I don’t get you and IBM, everytime you are calling it out, I look and it hasn’t even moved 2% intraday. Are you just playing the spread or what.

    If FXI goes down, LVS may lag. Could be a good stock to chase WHEN the FXI goes down.

    No XMAS party in Canada. Too expensive up there now, LOL.

    Looks like a climb into the finish. The New Four Horsemen and GLD all heading higher.

    Offering $.96 for YHOO 30 puts. Gonna ride that railroad for a few days.

  203. Mark

    jon – oh, just saw Credit Suisse raised it’s price target for STP too… besides Brean Murray’s downgrade… CS trumps b/c thier a Rolex to Murray’s Timex…

  204. Optrader

    YHOO-This is an ugly candle being printed! Bearish engulfing on top of a run, not nice at all. I am ready to Double down on the calls though but I will then keep a very tight stop, maybe even exit if we close significantly below 5MA.

  205. mSquare

    Phil – Thank you for the CCJ messy trade save idea. I hope a no so good earnings/guidance will lessen the pain.

  206. FilmFlam

    Don’t know how or why, but housing will stay flattish for 3 more years. Probably a combination of lower rates and increased natural disasters, but probably most from the high cost of building a home. All just guesses although the housing market topped several years before the stock market in the late 1920′s and seriously declined only after the crash. I expect that to repeat. The only thing that helps those of us that own is that HOPEFULLY, someone will do something to rescue the dollar and we will get appreciation in global currency, but not local currency. I read somewhere a year or two ago that real estate is cheaper in the US than in most if not all other developed economies. Does anyone know about that argument? Pretty sure I read it in The Economist.

  207. Demetrius Michael

    Flim – Bah spread betting is too calculated for me… Look at IBM on the daily. 112 is a nice bottom for it… and if it maintains over 114, I think its in a good position for another daily mo play to 116, 118, 120. I have a feeling this time, this stock will break 120, if Bernanke doesn’t screw things up.

  208. Demetrius Michael

    I don’t do much intra-day stuff near bernanke because a rumor could mess things up completely.

  209. BillBigD

    DM- sold the rest of NYX just for you. Nice double thanks Optrader for that one

  210. FilmFlam

    DM, I hope so, still sitting on uncovered Jan 09′s (basis $3) that I don’t want to cover until it pops over $120 because I hope, like you probably do, that when it pops, it will be a nice 10 point jump.

    I am not going to get those frickin’ YHOO puts unless it bounces. Don’t want to chase it, although I would like to. Going to wait for a bounce, even if it comes tomorrow at the open. This thing is done for the month. Really makes me question how the Alibaba IPO will turn out. Will they have to take the whole china market down to deflate Alibaba, to screw YHOO? I still say they did it to GOOG over here. LOL

  211. MrN

    BA – I knew you were trying to scare me out – so take that, uh whoever you are!

  212. Demetrius Michael

    loonie is 9529 right now, looks like the currency market is pricing in a cut already.

  213. FilmFlam

    DM, that was IBM Jan’09 120 Calls

  214. ozzi997

    should we buy more YHOO donw here phil??

  215. Courtney

    BA BA BA

    Wow!

  216. Mark

    OXPS up on decent volume intraday… just sold some 30′s for .70 (bought at .40 on Phil’s dd). See what the rest do…

  217. parchesia

    Film-I would say that U.S. real estate is cheap to other real estate markets where there has been serious appreciation in their currency, i.e. the pound and euro, etc. that could be categorized as “developed economies”, which makes stocks cheap as well. Unless there is some sort of “depression” like the 20′s, I still think real estate will stay flat like it’s done before and if we can keep the economy strong, eventually recover and that will probably happen after the stock market deflates and money literally pours into bonds driving yields down to where loans are very attractive again. But again, with inflation, that’s a dangerous game as well and at some point the Fed may have to hike rates to ridiculous levels to stave it off like in the 70′s, which seems like a more likely scenario considering the strength of the global market.

  218. JPL

    BBD –

    RIG do you have an earnings trade for this puppy? Thanks

  219. dday97

    GS – 243!!

    Xmas – I’m out for that one, got a kid due the week before.

  220. Mark

    dday – boy or girl? And early congrats!!

  221. FilmFlam

    Oh, looking at that Canadian Dollar chart hurts. It is great that we are making all this money in our markets, but by the time we cash it in, it will be worthless. How does a currency fall 10% in a month, and no one makes a peep. We are so screwed. I am going on the assumption that inflation is now 5% a month, anything less than that, and you are losing money.

    Man, wait until the baby boomers find out they can’t afford to travel more than 400 miles during retirement. Even less if they live close to Canada. Maybe we can just flip the Northern and Southern Hemispheres like they do on Australian maps. That’s the only way we will ever be on top of Canada again.

  222. BillBigD

    FilmFlam —-GOOG tick tock tick tock! LOL
    RIG- I am long but will probably yank some as it is ATH roughly. The Buy was at $110 not here. IMO

  223. MrN

    BA news or expectations?

    Marketwatch – October 29, 2007 3:06 PM ET

    Related Quotes
    Symbol Last Chg
    BA Trade 97.15 +1.13
    COL Trade 75.67 +0.21
    GD Trade 90.35 -0.88
    LMT Trade 109.27 +0.66
    NOC Trade 82.57 +0.63
    RTN Trade 63.80 -0.13
    Real time quote.

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Rockwell Collins Inc. is expected later this week to report a strong bottom-line for its September quarter as the aerospace industry experiences robust demand for new business jets.

    The Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based aerospace and defense company is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday and analysts are looking for earnings of 89 cents a share, on average, according to data from Thomson Financial.

    Last year Rockwell Collins reported earnings of 79 cents a share including charges of 5 cents a share for restructuring and 2 cents a share for stock-option expensing.

    In a note to investors, Merrill Lynch said it expects top-line organic growth to come in strong from both commercial and military platforms, including Boeing Co. (BA) 787, business jet avionics and helicopter modernization equipment.

    Rivals General Dynamics Corp. (GD), Raytheon Co. (RTN) and Boeing Co. (BA) have already reported better-than-expected in part due to the high demand for business jets. Orders for the aircraft have been climbing over the past year thanks to higher corporate profits and congested traffic at airports. See full story.

    Competitors for military contracts, Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) have also reported strong earnings growth in the most recent quarter.

    In September, Rockwell Collins (COL) backed its full-year earnings forecast of $3.40 a share on sales of about $4.35 billion.

  224. Demetrius Michael

    YOU HAVE IBM JAN 09 CALLS FOR $3????

    NYX – lol BBD…I’ve been shaving slowly on this one…. They’re just too profitable in good markets, and (relatively) extremely profitable in bad ones. Not complaining.

  225. Richard

    BA – 10 minutes ago. Boeing Board Approves New $7 Billion Share Repurchase and Declares Dividend.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071029/aqm205.html?.v=6

  226. Courtney

    MrN,

    BA – stock buyback approved.

  227. Richard

    BA – time to lift the callers?

  228. Demetrius Michael

    dday – That child’s xmas presents are going to combined with the bday ones aren’t they?… lol haha that’ll be perfect planning on the parents part.

  229. MrN

    Richard & Courtney – thanks

  230. Demetrius Michael

    Thanks Richard and Courtney. BA is a very good company, really smart planning to buy back shares at these prices.

  231. MrN

    BA – how much run is a buyback worth? Time to sell cover to capture profit?

  232. KC

    RIG – I agree, buy was around $110. Too bad I sold mine already.
    DIA strangle – Phil, if market tanks tomorrow ahead of Wed decision, my inclination is to take profit on the (137) calls, and reload afterwards. Is this the right way to play?

  233. FilmFlam

    Parchesia, I believe the measurement was based on cost versus median income level. Basically, you can say that land in Germany is cheaper, but fewer people can afford it. And it wasn’t based on currencies, it was based on something more fundamental, I thought.

    We will have another depression. It will start in early 2010, but most won’t realize it until late 2010. That is when the tide of sellers realizes that we haven’t fomented enough buyers. Kind of like if a country only worried about their older citizens and didn’t invest in educating their children to take over when they left. Oh wait, that is another stupid thing we did. The only question is, will we let enough foreigners in from other countries who actually educated their citizens to bail us out? That is why I think Charles Shumer must be voted out. I am a Democrat, but he is the biggest protectionist idiot that I have ever seen. He will drag this country through hell trying to protect the 500 people who gave him $1000. I expect more from you NY.

  234. JPL

    Phil/Optrader –

    YHOO – is this a dump or a DD?? The Jan 35′s

  235. Demetrius Michael

    JNJ – I’m selling out of my JNJ calls, it’s not a top call, but I’m happy with the profit… Hope you guys enjoyed that one.

  236. BillBigD

    MT-added

  237. Brian Bigelow

    FilmFlam, Is your thesis based on Harry Dents most recent book? Your timing seems to align. Actually his projections shape alot of my thinking also. He nailed the 90′s in his first book, and nailed the first half this decade in his second book. The question is will he nail his great depression call. I’ve been pretty impressed by his demographic forecasting. Just curious where you develop your thesis from.

    Thanks,

    Brian

  238. parchesia

    You know what that means….let’s all get rich and move abroad in 2009! I brought up the same point about foreigners yesterday. Where I live everyone is getting dumber by the day! I’m not bashing people, it’s the truth. The public school system has the no one left behind policy, so they leave everyone behind (including us in the end) and think the kids need to spend more time in school instead of modify their policies. And everyone please raise your hands if you think a 4.0 is what it was when all of us were in school.

  239. dday97

    I’ve fallen into that combined gifts category, I was born on 12/18 as well. This next one is due on the 17th. Don’t know if its a boy or girl, we never find out. Already have a boy and 2 girls so a boy would make it balanced but whatever way works for me. Actually my youngest daughter is the one that eats chips & dip and watches football with dad.

  240. FilmFlam

    DM – Half from 12/13/06 @ $4, half from 3/01/07 @ 3.00 and scalped $.50 off of Septembers. Blew my chance to sell the Octobers for $3.00 and have a $0.00 cost basis. But, lots of chances left.

    BBD – Alright, let’s do this thing. If we ever meet, the bet is $100. If we never meet, no payoff. If I win, I will even buy you a drink with it, but only one, otherwise, I think you would drink my wallet under the table. So, let’s say GOOG touches $700 by EOD friday. That is between my two dates of 11/01 and 11/06. And “bad ticks” count if it trades over $699. =)

  241. Phil

    CIEN – you should get an adjustment somehow..

    If we get together it would have to be Vegas or Disney, where there are lots of easy airfares. Sage and I talked about doing a live seminar in Vegas but I’ve never put one on before and I can’t imagine where the time would come from.

    I think I said once before I think it should be a $1K event that gets you a room for 2 days, seminar and some food and then we take the profits and hold a poker tournament, the kind where the top 25% get their $1,000 back and the next 20% get $500 and the top 10 split up like $30K (10, 5, 3, 2,2,2..). We’d need about 200 people near as I can tell (assuming rooms and Food and hall rental are less than $500pp and we could set up trading screens on monitors and do a whole day of live trading, that would be fun!

    LVS trade – well you didn’t miss much movement-wise. I don’t know what system yo have but I guess try calling the broker and ask them to fill both legs. Wayne, let me know what exact position you have as we have several LVS plays in progress.

    YHOO box – well if I can sell 200 contracts and make .10 on a trade that has no risk and takes up no margin and my system charges me $40 to execute that’s a $160 profit, no reason not to do it is there. I wasn’t even looking at that trade to win, those pop up sometimes and they’re fun to take but it’s essential you have a good platform with a reasonable fee structure.

    COH spread – I don’t think I even have that one! Usually if I pick a Dec it’s a pretty firm target price. Sure they do well on an up 80 day for the Dow, it’s how they do on a flat day we want to see but, on the whole, you picked up $1.50 and he still has $2.35 of premium and, if you have to pay him that $2.35 back (because it was never really yours!) then that means you will have gained $2.35 of intrinsic value in your position, not a bad thing at all. You are on par with him so there’s no danger of him outstripping you and you have a ton of time to roll so my main advice it focus your efforts on positions you should be worrying about, not fairly safe spreads with 45 days to expiration.

    MRVL – about time is the reason. Holy cow have those SOX been killed. Generally good earnings from Asia in the semis and WFR hit a home run and SNDK looks great so we could get a nice Semi (and QQQQ) rally here.

    My thoughts on AKAM – Why would you buy the put if you sold the call? The call you sold is a put!

    I would roll the caller to 2x the Dec $40s at $2.83 and roll your May $35s to 2x the Feb $40s, that’s about even for you but improves your position. The puts are dead but they do protect you from a catastrophic failure that blows out your callers.

  242. Brainfill

    Spread trade on GS…Buying Jan. 09 250 Puts @ 37.60 & selling Nov. 250 Puts @ 11.60.

  243. dday97

    GS didn’t like touching 244, let’s see if it can take it out this time.

  244. Greg

    dday97 – Cheers to you on your expected baby. Best investment you can ever make is your kids.

    Although, there are days recently with my 15 year old boy when I can only shake my head and wonder if it will all turn out right in the end.

  245. FilmFlam

    Brian, that is in fact where I first saw the theory put forth. I think demographic forecasting is a very, very good way to time markets. I haven’t followed him too much in the last few years. I think his original call for the stock market to rally back in 2006 was pushed out because of the commodity bull market. Once I started approaching things with that philosophy, my returns increased dramatically. It gives you the courage to buy LEAPS when the market is really down, because you think that the end is not near, and you are proven right with your gains. (One of his asides about where China was at a few years ago he said buy companies that sell small home appliances in China. A year later I finally saw one and it was up 500% from a year before.)

    I completely buy into the presidential cycle, the decadal cycle, and the 40-year cycle and like Tootsie Rolls, everywhere I look, I see things that fit.

    All the day-trading I do is really just for fun and to see if I can make consistent money out of sitting in a chair in front of a computer. I was smart enough to finally figure out to do an LTP and STP a year ago, and since then, have had 4 periods of 400% returns. Not all compounded, but I am about to start a portfolio that doesn’t take anything off the table until Jan 2010. Compound the whole thing from $25K to the moon. Probably moving from one AAPL position to the next.

  246. Richard

    Greg, dday – it only gets better. My 26 y/o son was in town this weekend from grad school, and I can safely say he’s doing better than I had ever hoped. And I always thought he was going to do great. World, look out!

    Enjoy your kids while you can – but it never gets old. My 33 y/o daughter just finished a new film project, and she hasn’t changed a bit since she was 4. What a delight.

    Kids are great. Congrats dday!!

  247. Demetrius Michael

    Film – Oh man you’ve been holding that company forever! Never wanted to swing trade it? I guess it’s hard when you plan to do it for an investment. I wouldn’t worry too much about it.

  248. dday97

    Greg,

    Thanks a bunch. I have a ways to go before I hit that age. Mine are 5.5., 3.5, 1.5 and the soon to be. Although one of the funnest things that I do is coach my sons 4-6 yr old hockey team. If you want pure entertainment go to one of those games.

  249. dday97

    GS rejected again, the 3rd time should be a charm…hopefully.

  250. kaba

    Filmflam,
    Can you direct me to this theory you and Brian are talking about

  251. Denis

    RACK? Any news or just more buyout rumors, quite a move from this morning.

  252. FilmFlam

    DM, every once in a while, I smart enough to buy something and not touch it. Can’t say that often enough. When I buy LEAPS, they end up five or ten baggers 75% of the time. The hard part is not selling them to “protect yourself.”

  253. parchesia

    NASA just said they were going to extend shuttle flight over a malfunctioning joint. If anyone here is like me, they are ROFL!

  254. FilmFlam

    http://www.amazon.com/Next-Great-Bubble-Boom-2006-2010/dp/0743288483

    Yours for $7 with shipping, used.

  255. FilmFlam

    Parchesia, don’t you think they could fix that with some spliff tape?

    OR

    In space, no one can hear you exhale.

  256. Demetrius Michael

    Vegas, Never been. Heard it’s really expensive. Sounds like fun though.

    Children are awesome!… But not going that route yet, maybe in 10 years…

  257. hawk

    My vote’s for Disney (even though I love Vegas). I’m like 1.5 hours away from Orlando :D

  258. Greg

    Hey dday97 – all three of my kids (11 boy, 13 daughter, 15 boy) play youth hockey too, it is the greatest youth sport! I also coached when they were younger, now they are too advanced and I am not skilled enough for their levels.

    Your kids are at a great age, when you come home they give you a big hug and make you feel like you are the best Dad. Too bad that doesn’t last into their teens.

  259. Brian Bigelow

    Kaba,

    Harry Dent is an author who forecasts based on the theory that people’s spending patterns are pretty predictable based on where they are in their lifecycle. So you can look at birth and immigration statistics and get a feel for when different parts of the economy will boom. He predicted the rally of the late 90′s in a book right in the early 90′s. He predicted the real estate boom of this decade in a book written right around the turn of this century. He wrote a book in ’05 or ’05 I think where he called for an epic global boom to carry through the end of this decade, but then a massive great depression type occurence in the US economy for most of the next decade. Its a good read, although he often gets his level projections wrong, he is a good big picture forecaster.

  260. Fan

    I think that Vegas trip and poker is a great idea. Count me in!

  261. Richard

    I vote not Disney. How about someplace interesting – like NYC or Aspen? We get more table action here than we’ll ever see in LV.

  262. parchesia

    Film-Exactly!

  263. dday97

    You can all come out to Montana and I’ll take you Elk hunting, nothing like 200 people combing the mountain. Plus I’ll wager that I’m faster than at least one of you so I’m safe from grizzly attacks :0

  264. parchesia

    DDAy-only if we can call NASA and take a “malfunctioning joint”

  265. MrN

    No Disney – I’m boycotting after the DIS trade ripped me bad! :)

  266. FilmFlam

    Brian, well summarized. I don’t time off of him, but he has colored how I look at the big picture. One of the most interesting things he said is that the next 3 years are the best times to be selling businesses. IF he is right, those last to the private equity party will be left holding the bag. But, I guess someone has to.

    Finally got my YHOO 30 Puts filled. Just in time. Sticking by my put on YHOO. Too many calls in my portfolio anyways.

    Gotta run. Come on BBD, I love throwing my money away. Won’t you please take some?

  267. OPtrader

    YHOO-Closed above 5MA, so I am still in. Doubled down around $31.30.

  268. Demetrius Michael

    Not too sure if a grizzly could survive a 50 cal round from a desert eagle.

  269. Greg

    Rchard: I hope my kids turn out well, but right now they give me plenty to worry about. They are good kids, but I need to figure out how to motivate them to achieve to their potential. Having a hard time with that right now.

    Sunds like you figured it out along the way. Ay secrets to success?

  270. Phil

    STP – Ramblin’

    SNDK – I always like them. The trick is to own them far out and sell whenever it goes up significantly.

    YHOO – this is my $31.50 target from this morning – still like it.

    Real estate is cheap in the US because we have very low population density compared to most developed countries. All this talk about “saving” the dollar assumes it is savable, read that article on Brazil from this morning, we tried to save them, caused our own S&L crisis. Other CB’s may not be as stupid as ours… On the whole, I don’t think we’ll see a proper market bottom until home prices fall at least 20% off their high, maybe 30%.

    DDay – a week after having a kid you’ll be dying for an excuse to get away for a weekend!

    5% a month – I know, it’s hard to find something to do with cash as it feels like flushing money down the drain unless it’s working for you. Can’t invest in real estate (even commercial is dubious) and bonds don’t pay enough to keep up and LOL to corporate paper… That goes back to my premise that US equities are simply the least sucky place to park money but that’s far from an endorsement!

    TSO – well I’d like to say I hate to say I told you so but I actually kind of love it…

    BA – 10% buyback should at least set a floor around $97. I sold the $95s for $3 and now they are $3.40 so I’m not ready to cry yet but I feel better about taking a .70 hit to roll to the Dec $100s if they break $97.50. XXX

  271. Legh

    How about all the millions Eisner ripped off DIS shareholders and didnt perform.

  272. dday97

    DM

    Depends on how close and where you hit him. Remember that you’ll be a little stressed and shaky when it’s dialing you in. I’ve seen grizzly attacks where they’ve been shot multiple times and kept attacking until they completely bled out. Determined they are. I carry a .43 mag when I’m out hunting just in case.

  273. LL Cool J

    Seminar + poker would be such a great idea. LV and NY would be my top choices.

  274. dday97

    Phil, you have that right pal. I’m saving it for when my in laws come out at the end of Jan., then I’m going to Dallas for 2 weeks.

  275. Mark

    dday97 – Dallas! If you’re bored some night / want to hang out with a 27 year old… look me up.

    Phil, you need to tell us when you sign on celebreties / rappers!!! LOL

  276. Demetrius Michael

    Would Tranq darts work?

  277. djczing

    Interesting there were no big market swings today – volatility (VIX) remained pretty flat.

    Last week we had 4 candles in a row taht were gut-wrenchers…

  278. Mike

    Tasr:

    Anyone have thoughts on Tasr? I am underwater on some Nov. 17.50s. I do not like the action. Do we think they are going to rally in the next few weeks.
    Is about 15-15.50 a good place to add to Novs or buy Dec or Jan?

    It is hard for me to get a feel for Tasr. It is a strange stock. Is that short interest going to get squeezed?

  279. TimidTrader

    YHOO – Would some of you wiser traders comment on this now that the market’s closed? YHOO bottomed 9/16 at around 22.61, and for 32 trading days has followed a tight channel at a clip of about 16.5 cents/trading day. Earnings came out, and a one day selloff; the next day it bounced right back up into the channel and picked up where it left off, only this time picked up a little speed – 2.5 bucks over the next 7 trading days. Alibaba made media spotlight and it flew, but the next day (today) the helium leaked out and it fell back into the channel. It tested Thursday’s close three times today. The bottom of the current channel is around 30 today. It has closed off its lows of today and above Thursday’s high. The trend looks intact to me. What do you folks think?

  280. windywheel

    CROX
    Q307 Preview

    For Q307, our EPS estimate is $0.62, versus $0.27 last year. This compares to
    consensus of $0.63, and guidance of $0.58-$0.62. CROX reported positive
    surprises of $0.14, $0.07, $0.04 and $0.06 in Q207, Q107, Q406 and Q306,
    respectively. We believe that another strong upside surprise is likely.

    For FY07, our EPS estimate is $1.93, versus $0.80 last year. This compares to
    consensus of $1.97, and guidance of $1.89-$1.93. Additionally, we are
    forecasting Q407 EPS of $0.43, versus $0.25, which is inline with implied
    guidance of $0.41-$0.43.

  281. Mark

    djczing – my two cents… who wants to take a specific position before the fed? Strangles have worked for me very nicely… I’ve actually seen a lot of buy programs on my desk… things that make you go hmmmm….

  282. Richard

    Legh, one of the few things I’ve agreed with you on – DIS sucks. They’re not getting any (more) of my money.

    Greg – no secret – just think and don’t be an asshole. What kids need most of is your time and your ability to teach them how to cope with the world they’ll soon be living in. At the time, especially during their teens, my kids hated the fact that I was insistent on teaching them to be independent thinkers. Today both fall all over themselves thanking their Mom and me for that one lesson. Who knows what other lessons they learned, but have yet to consider their source?

    No better parenting than giving your time.

    Here’s my persepcetive – I’m 61 y/o, retired investment banker. The 20 or so years I spent bringing (sometime prodding) my two kids through their childchood is the best single investment I ever made – in their lives and in mine. So, any minute you have to give to your kids, don’t give them that minute – give them two. You won’t belive how it will pay off for everyone.

    My two cents!

  283. dday97

    DM – they better be fast acting darts!
    Mark – when the time get’s closer I’ll get your number. I think I’m heading out there on Jan. 28th-ish.

  284. FilmFlam

    Well, I wouldn’t say I was a wise trader, but whenever something is in a channel, then pops above it, then comes back down into it, I assume the next move is down to test support. And since it flew right through the 200dma on this move, the best thing for the stock long-term IMO, is to retest it. That is at $28. That is why I picked up puts at 30.

  285. Mike

    Phil: BMY

    Does BMY look weak here or maybe just consolidating? 30 seems like big resistance. I wonder if all those MM’s and funds that sold all those Oct, Nov, Dec and Jan 30, 32.50 and 35 calls keep shorting it at about 30?

  286. Greg

    Richard – I’ll have to work harder on that not being an asshole thing ;-)

  287. BillBigD

    Portfolio Recovery-PRAA reports Q3 EPS 75c vs. consensus of 80c
    Reports Q3 revenue of $54.6M vs. consensus of $56M. I am surprised with the credit issues.
    DDAY-Ditto if in Town would love to grab a cocktail.

  288. Richard

    ROFL – I was wondering what you would have to say about that. I’m sure you’re going great. Just keep it up, and give your kids time to work things out for themselves. They’re not always on your time schedule. (That’s for sure!!)

  289. Greg

    Richard: Big Thanks!

  290. Mark

    fantastic dday! let me know: callamark@gmail.com

  291. rD2.0

    Baidu Expands China Search Market Share In Q3
    Posted by Eric Savitz
    Baidu (BIDU) expanded its share of China’s search market to 61.5% from 58.1% in the third quarter, according to the research firm Analysys International.

    Google (GOOG) followed with a 22.5% share, about the same as the second quarter. Yahoo China (YHOO) was third with a 10.6 % share.

    Perhaps the most amazing stat is this: China’s online search market generated ad revenue in the quarter of 811.7 million yuan – just $108.5 million. That was up 95.2% from a year earlier, Analysys found. To put that in perspective: Google had Q3 revenue of about $4.2 billion, or about 40x the entire Chinese search market. Baidu’s third quarter revenues were $66.3 million.

    Baidu today is up $13.17, or 3.7%, at $366.56. That gives the company a market cap of $12.4 billion, or about 30 times the current run rate of the entire Chinese Internet search ad market.

  292. BillBigD

    CF Industries-CF reports Q3 EPS $1.52 vs. consensus of 97c
    CF reports Q3 revenue $582.9M vs. consensus of $563.9M. The company said it entered Q4 with strong forward bookings at attractive margins in both nitrogen and phosphate and that inventories and operations are positioned to meet expected robust fall fertilizer demand.

  293. Richard

    Greg – de nada. Advice from a stranger isn’t usually worth very much. Good luck!

    Hopefully, if we can get this (re)union working, we all won’t be such strangers to each other. We definitely need to work on that!!!!!!!!!

  294. FilmFlam

    Richard, been a dad for about 5 months. That is the best advice I have gotten yet. More of a reminder, really. The second best advice I got was from my best friend’s dad. They got pregnant, got married, and then turned 18. Their goal was to not make the same mistakes their parents made. They were going to make different ones. And he was in a rock band. But, they have been together 40 years and raised 3 great kids.

    I try to make no mistakes, but my boy is going to catch all of them.

  295. Richard

    Congrats, Film. Strap in for the ride! Every moment spent with your kid is better than the last, and you’ve got plenty of time to enjoy the entire roller coaster. From watching my kids’ friends grow up, I have seen that most kids turn out great, as long as they get loads of time from their parents (especially their Dads) when growing up. I’m sure you’re smiling right now, just as I am in thinking about how they have (or in your case, will) grow up.

    Wait ’til he starts calling you Dad!

  296. MrN

    Phil – Thanks on BA; hope you’re right I sold cover then bot back and am naked. HET – did I miss that opp. to sell the NOV’s? I think it coulda been done on the dip real quick.

    I must have misunderstood the YHOO call and started buying in on the first xxx and added twice since; thinking I was scaling in. Too quick – I have over 1/2 of my max position in one day.

  297. rD2.0

    up 4 points afterhours
    —————-
    17:09 SOHU Sohu.com beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (53.53 +3.61)

    Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 32.1% year/year to $51.5 mln vs the $46.6 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.28-0.30 vs. $0.25 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $53.5-55.5 vs. $49.34 mln consensus.

  298. Phil

    DIA strangle – I’m out of the prediction game, just tighten, tighten tighten…

    Schools – do not get me started. An illiterate populace is a pliable populace – that’s the policy our government has been pursuing since the last education President (Kennedy) was assasinated. Dumb kids don’t read Das Kapital and try to organize unions and dumb kids don’t expect to get promoted and dumb kids don’t understand the voting system well enough to demand it be foolproof and, best of all, dumb kids will sit in front of pretty much any crap you want to broadcast for 8 hours a day and buy whatever you want to sell them and they won’t even read the forms when you ask them to sign their lives away in exchange for goods and services they don’t even really need and dumb kids can’t even do the math to realize how screwed they are while they are spiraling into debt with no savings and no plan for the future…

    I’ve got a football buddy daughter (5) – she rocks! I hope it’s not a phase…

    NASA – I, for one, would not want to be in space without a really good joint…

    NYC is too expensive to have any kind of gathering. Aspen on the other hand is one of my favorite winter spots, and they have a Nobu so I’m just so happy there! There’s a Comedy Festival in March and a food and wine festival in the spring, both great times to go…

    PID is kicking ass!

    TASR – you never want to be in the current month with these guys – they are all over the place and usually tank into expirations. Best move right now is roll back to the Decembers for .55 and sell the Novembers for the same, that buys you a month and it’s a long way to $17.50 (you can set stops on parts as it goes up if you want to be really safe). Because they have $2.50 incriments and fetch a high premium, I like the Jun $17.50s for $4.40, selling the Dec $17.50s for $1.08 so you’re in for $3.32 with 5 sells to go. If you have 10 you set a stop on 2 of your callers at $1.25 and another 2 at $1.50 with a .20 trailing resell. XXX On the whole, I think they are going to fly – I just don’t know when but I say they outperform GOOG from now to next year and GOOG should go well over $800 so TASR should hit $20+

    YHOO – all that stuff sounds good but the Alibaba thing is really a game changer and the real pop comes Nov 6th when the shares start trading. This was a strategic decision made by a well funded company to sell it’s IPO very cheap in the private placement, EVEN THOUGH IT WAS MASSIVELY OVERSUBSCRIBED, in order to create a demand frenzy next week as the stock prints 100% gains in day one. To hear analysts spinning a $1.5Bn valuation for 17% of the company as a disasppointment is ridiculous and shows how little these “experts” know about business.

  299. bargetis2

    I like Hot Springs for a great location. Just to put my 2 cents in.

  300. 6fingerman

    Phil, FYI — the portfolio download has not been updated

  301. Richard

    I’m with Phil. Aspen is perfect in the spring – after ski season and before the summer tourist season. Lots going on that time of year and probably cheaper rates for airfare and hotels.

    bargetis2 – Great hot springs near Aspen too, at Glenwood Springs! Just 40 miles down the road.

  302. Phil

    Nice thing to say about kids Richard! I guess you’re in pre-grandpa stage? Of course I’m quite the contingency planner so I used to overthink everything I said to my kids as I would always worry about the resonating effects my words would have throughout their lives but then I learned you just have to do your best and pass on your own philosophy and watch what they do with it. I suppose it’s easier with 2 girls because I don’t expect them to be just like me, I’m thrilled to watch them each become their own person and honored when they adopt some my teachings and I’m always most excited when they come up with their own ideas that work…

    BMY – no, $30 is logical resistance, nothing to worry about but if you are way out in the ’10s, there’s nothing wrong with selling 1/2 the $30s as it will be hard for them to gain that much ($30.52) in 2 weeks.

    BIDU market share – between that and Alibaba raising $1.5Bn (in China that can hire you 750,000 people!) and the new YouTube challenger by NBC/FOX (that is one WEIRD team!) you would think Google wouldn’t be testing $680…

    HET – because of the buyout on the table the puts (and calls) aren’t budging. The play is a gamble but $2.8Bn isn’t chicken feed but it’s legal nonsense and the judgement may be overturned on appeal. That’s why I’ll be very happy to sell closer puts against it to create an even trade. They go ex-dividend (.40) on the 8th so that may be a factor in people holding on for now or it may be baked in the cake with Apollo but I don’t see how it can’t hurt a $17bn deal if it’s not resolved.

    YHOO – which position? I can’t even keep them straight right now!

  303. Richard

    TASR – closed out of all positions today. Very nice, but incalculable percentage profit, since I got into the spread at a credit. Thanks to Richard Marble (I think) and his sharp eyes a few weeks ago. At the strike price these guys are crazy. I was ready to exit long before today though, I have to say.

  304. Jedda62

    NVDA – Phil, what are your thoughts on NVDA. It’s been beaten down due to mixed analyst reviews saying ATI will put more pressure on NVDA going forward. Not sure if this is the case with xmas around the corner and with their name recognition, I bet they do pretty well. Is this just a purge?

    tnx – Brian

  305. Richard

    Thanks for the comment, Phil. Sons and daughters are so different, but my daughter seems to be more verbal about remembering things (teachings?) from her childhood. I see it more in my son from his actions.

    Hopefully the “pre” part of that statement stays in the “pre” stage for a few more years. I would like the kiddos to get a few more years of “real life” under their belts before they start their own families. My son seems intent on doing so, but my daughter is more of a wild card. As daughters tend to be.

    TSO – I’m with you on the put spread and so far am quite happy with that. Is it your idea to hold through earnings on 11/1? Might as well, is my thought.

  306. Phil

    Portfoio – Jared says try clearing your cache as it’s been up all day. I’m looking at the current one right now.

  307. Ray

    Re: UTHR spread – got into the put end of the spread at 1.9, mulled over whether to sell the 80 call or buy the 85 call first and leg into the condor.

    Ended up buying the 85 call even though it cost $$ out of my pocket and made the incomplete condor an automatic money-loser (selling the 80 call would net you a profit at any stock price less than 88) because I figured, with Fed day tomorrow and Earnings reported before the bell 11/1 there may be a stock rally to sell the 80s into. (though they have missed estimates two quarters in a row)

    Also figured out what the massive IV% is all about, apparently they completed enrollment of a phase III trial for inhaled pulmonary artery hypertension about 4 weeks back and the buzz is that the analysis for the trial is going to be presented at a conference beginning 11/4. Once these results are digested by investors there will either be a big upspike (and it would be nice to sell the 80 call at a higher price as I’m covered on the downside) or the stock will tank and the options with it.

  308. Phil

    NVDA – good SOX comeback play (if it happens)but let them establish a base first. They haven’t visited the 50 dma in over a month and this is the first time they’ve dipped below it ($35) in 2 months but if $32 holds through the week they should be ok to get back to $35 at least but then watch that for resistance.

    TSO – I think my comment last week was that I will drink a cup of their gasoline if they have good earnings!

  309. Richard

    TSO – Aha, so that’s how you really feel. Well, point taken. I’m still in!

  310. 6fingerman

    Portfolio — thanks, downloaded the new one now

  311. ali

    could someone post the article that discusses why the refiners are hurting? i think it was posted sometime last week but not exactly sure of when it was posted or where to find it. just trying to catch up on some reading and get a better feeling for everyone’s bearishness towards the refiners and in particular TSO. Thanks

  312. ali

    Anybody have thoughts on BMC. Mentioned positively in barrons this weekend as it was stated they have some business with VMW. Need to do some hw but just trying to get a feel for others think. Chart was mentioned earlier today and it looks good.

  313. Demetrius Michael

    Phil I want that video on youtube lol!

  314. Richard

    Anyone watching XOM and WMB after hours? News?

  315. Richard

    TSO – Ali, Phil’s comments are most recently on 10/26. You can check them out there. I don’t know of an article other than the numerous ones stating how the crack spread is at an all time low, hence low margins for refiners.

    TSO is a particularly intresting case because of Tracinda’s increasing involvement. I’m sure Phil can elaborate, but the bottom line was summed up in these two posts:

    October 26th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit

    TSO way up as their economist forecasts a 30% drop in oil prices (which will magically erase their devastating profit decline they are about to report). L O L I say – I believe him as much a Mozilo (although I do think oil will go down, I think his comments were entirely self-serving). That makes the TSO play taking out the Nov $50 putter for .10 and rolling the Jan $50 puts to the Jan $62.50s for +$1. XXX for $10KP and $25KP

    October 26th, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink edit

    I’ll tell you what bothers me about TSO – why would he announce he wants to buy 28M shares at $64 with the stock at $55. That is irrational behavior, he’s not buying the whole company, just 16% of it (and now he’s paying for 17.3% worth). The scam is that Tracinda already owns 5.5M shares and now all he has to do is say they couldn’t come to an agreement, dump his 5.5M shares ahead of earnings and he gets away clean while everyone else eats the stock. That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it! Earnings are on the 31st.

    October 26th, 2007 at 12:20 pm | Permalink edit

    VLO, we might tdo better if TSO pulls back as VLO was only up on TSO’s news – certainly not up on $92 oil. All refiner sentiment is totally out of control as gas prices are not keeping up with oil prices therefore they make less money – this is not rocket science – this is not even hard math!

  316. joosj

    yeah what is up with XOM afterhours, I actually have quite a short position on XOM so it would be lovely if it opened down here tomorrow but I can’t seem to find any news..

  317. Richard

    TSO – final note, Ali. Refiners are usually more volatile at times during the year when they are changing their product mix. Right now, they’re changing, or just finishing changing, from predominantly gasoline production to a higher heating oil mix. This happens twice a year, and it makes for an interesting seasonal play. Typically, TSO dips in the winter and rises through the spring.

    Given the very tight crack spread right now, something has to give, and probably soon. That means we’re likely to see higher gasoline prices this winter sometime. By higher, I mean +10% or so, or up about 30 cents. Assuming crude stays the same or goes down (likely), refiners’ margins will increase.

    So, in my opinion, and this is just my opinion, I think the play is to be short TSO (long puts) at the moment. After than run is over, start looking for a place later in the year for a more bullish posture to take advantage of the refiners’ natural seasonality. In the past, I’ve found the end of the year to be a good time to sell TSO puts (naked).

    I would also appreciate other comments in this area too.

  318. Richard

    Fed Funds – This is an interesting change from the “odds makers”. Any thoughts on how this might affect tomorrow’s market opening?

    CME Group Fed Watch – October 29, 2007

    In advance of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 30-31, the CME Group will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC’s federal funds target rate, as indicated by the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.

    Based upon the October 29 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the November 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 98 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-3/4 percent to 4-1/2 percent at the FOMC meeting on October 31 (versus a 2 percent probability of no rate change).

    Summary Table
    October 24: 86% for -25 bps versus 14% for -50 bps.
    October 25: 86% for -25 bps versus 14% for -50 bps.
    October 26: 92% for -25 bps versus 8% for -50 bps.
    October 29: 2% for No Change versus 98% for -25 bps.
    October 30:
    October 31: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.

  319. rahul

    Phil – can you give me your thoughts on AIG. I was thinking about entering the Jan/Nov 65 Call spread for $1.6 ahead of earnings.

  320. Julie

    Ali,

    BMC has a conference this week in Vancouver – I’m heading that way tomorrow. May cause their stock to bump up. Their stock has done well, but I can say that at least one of their products took over 100% more time to implement than expected due to software flaws and a very inexperienced professional services staff. How they make money is beyond me, but they seem to do it. I’ll have a better perspective after this week’s conference.

  321. BillBigD

    Aspen in the Spring would be great.

  322. k1

    Richard- I’ve been saying this for a while (and maybe becoming a nuisance), but if the Fed’s new “key measurement” is home prices, they’re likely to cut another half point this meeting.

    Despite the market’s behavior, foreclosures are up, formerly-strong real estate markets are weakening, and the credit markets remain incredibly tight. Mishkin’s model says that stabilizing home prices is the most important way to lessen or avoid a serious recession, inflation be damned. (Doesn’t mean his model is right, just that he’s a heavy influencer in the Fed right now).

  323. Ali

    Been reading up a bit and I agree with all of you on the refiners and their lack of margins with oil so high but in regards to playing TSO don’t you guys think its dicey with all of the uncertainty regarding Kerkorian? I was thinking about puts on FTO as I feel FTO should take a hit on Thurs when XOM and MRO report. My thought process is that there is the potential for them to fall on there competitors earnings reports but also for them to fall on their own earnings. I feel that if I buy the puts naked, implieds will stay up after XOM reports so I essentially get the benefit of two potential moves vs. 1 if I played the likes of XOM. I know naked options is not the way we operate but I feel like this could be worth it. Or I was thinking about the playing a 1×2 in Nov. Using the last prices I was looking at buying 1 of the Nov 45 puts for 1.90 and selling 2 of the Nov 40 puts for .50 each and $1 total. All in all I would be paying .9 for this spread and I make money as long as stock is below 44.10 or above 35.90 with the max gain coming at 40. Any thoughts on this play as FTO looks like a good bet to fall but this would provide some protection in case it didn’t.

  324. Demetrius Michael

    K1 – I’m done with the fed, he can do whatever the hell he wants… I’ll just trade accordingly and as long as he doesn’t screw up America, he’s OK in my books.

  325. k1

    DM- those are some wise words. I think we’d all feel better if we were sure “they” weren’t going to screw up America…

  326. Richard

    K1 – To paraphrase Phil – I’m thinking too much, so party down.

    Mishkin’s power within the Fed certainly seems to be rising, and his presentation in JH certainly got plenty of press. BUT – can the entire board actually think that obtaining immediate gratification by helping this one industry will serve the whole economy favorably in the years to come? Has the Fed become so political that one governor, who is positioning himself to become the next chief, can create bad policy with no one speaking a word? (Well, look how we got into Iraq. I guess that last question answers itself.)

    Thanks for the links, and I do see the need to be very cautious of Mishkin. But I can’t imagine that reason will not win out sooner or later – before we hit the coffin!!!

    My point in posting the (ever so slight) change in sentiment was that this is the first time in a while (?) that we have seen anything other than a dead lock on 100% odds for a 25bp drop. That surprised me, just as I imagine it surprised you, Mishkin or no Mishkin. Maybe some of the non-governor members of the FOPMC will be able provide some sanity to this insane single-industry focus.

    Actually, there was a good overview article in the NYT today on a similar topic. Here’s the link.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/29/business/29fed.html?em&ex=1193803200&en=ec1a3a994207ba67&ei=5087

    Ironically enough, this article was right next to an article explaining why O’Neal at MER was ousted for taking too much risk. I wonder if anyone else saw the irony in that juxtaposition.

  327. Richard

    FOMC! (Errant fingers tonight.)

  328. Mr_Sparkle

    Jedda62,

    AMLN – I was playing this for the last 6 months (long stock,hedged with put, covered calls). Anyway, the IV skews are out of whack because they are expecting results on exenatide LAR very soon – most likely by the end of the year, but quite possibly within the next month. The problem is that the stock is overvalued even if you assume fantastic results (and high end revenue assumptions) for LAR. Byetta has been doing decently but the FDA gave them a ding with their rejection of a different use of Symlin. All of this, of course, if floating around in better-written form but this is one of the first times I’ve seen AMLN mentioned on the board so I thought I would chime in.

    I’ll maybe repost this in the morning since I doubt you’ll see it tonight.

  329. k1

    Richard- Thanks for the link to the Times, that’s a great article. Looks to recap the John Mauldin one that got me started a couple weeks ago, which suggests either common source or similar interpretation. :-)

    You speak of the rate cutting as instant gratification, but I see it a bit differently. CBs have a tenuous grasp on the economy in the best of conditions, and there is research to suggest their rate changes are symbolic rather than concrete, that the Fed Funds rate has a lot less direct impact on the economy than the MSM suggests (I have a link for that somewhere, I’ll dig it up if you’re interested.)

    Rather than instant gratification, I see this as the Fed trying out a different economic theory. If the only knob they have to turn is the Fed Funds rate, then its the timing of the turns that is important. So they’re looking at a new indicator of when to turn the knob, and how to know when they’ve turned it “enough”.

    If I’m understanding Mishkin’s model correctly (and there’s no guarantee of that) then not only do I expect the Fed to cut rates aggressively, but I expect them to raise them aggressively once home prices stabilize. If this is the case, and the market parties on each rate cut, we can expect the market to get a serious hangover on each rate increase once home prices stabilize and the Fed is comfortable raising rates again. Just as the last cut was unexpected and aggressive, I am thinking we’ll see unexpected and aggressive rate increases.

  330. Richard

    K1,

    Of course, none of this means anything, since you and I aren’t central bankers, but I do enjoy talking about it.

    It seems to me that Mishkin’s argument breaks down on two fronts – economic and political. As an economic influence the funds rate cannot help but affect all aspects of our own economy and the economies of much of the rest of the world too. Making a dramatic twist on the FF dial (to use your metaphor) to help one sector of our economy seems to take on far more general economic risk than a central banker should take on. Just to help out the housing market, and the mortgage industry too, a drop in the funds rate will also affect, among other things, the price of oil, the value of the dollar, the demand for raw materials, and on and on.

    While I’m not saying the Fed is not foolish enough to take up the cause, the method seems irrational to me. But, as I mentioned earlier, that hasn’t seemed to stop them in the past.

    Oh, and BTW, I do get the symbolism of rate cuts, but Mishkin’s ideas seem to move far beyond mere symbolism.

    According to Mishkin, for the Fed to make a difference in the housing and mortgage industries, the rate cut would need to be substantial. Agreed on that front. But also according to Mishkin, once the housing and the mortgage industries were back on their feet, the Fed would then need to increase rates just as dramatically. I definitely do NOT see that happening. Not only does the Fed not have the political will to do that, but it would then be penalizing the rest of the non-housing and non-mortgage economy in doing so. What, for example, would AA or IBM or anyone, for that matter, have to say about their borrowing capacity being influenced by a Fed that was trying to micro-manage one or two sectors of the economy? My guess is that makes no sense to the AAs and the IBMs of the world, and it certainly doesn’t make any sense to me.

    Finally, and I touched on this briefly, what about political will? Politically, it would be quite easy to drop the funds rate any amount at any time. Few will argue against that. On the other hand, Mishkin aside, who’s going to argue in favor of restoring the funds rate to its pre-reduction levels? What is the political fallout from the Fed trying to micro-manage individual sectors of the economy?

    None of this computes for me.

    Like you, however, I am not betting against a funds cut. But I’m also not betting on one happening either. Fortunately, on this site we hedge well for all types of foolishness throughout the year. This one seems especially foolish while falling on the same day we Americans experience one of our most over the top celebrations – Halloween.

    So the Fed comes calling – Trick or Treat?

    (I’ll have a Corona and Excedrin, please.)

  331. Stock and Option Trades

    Phil let me know if you want that seminar organized, I bet we can put together a top class one (but I am NOT playing poker with you!).

  332. Demetrius Michael

    I’ll play poker against Phil any day. I think I played that game twice in my life… My “all in” strat is so noobish that I actually have a chance in not losing.. first.

  333. reinharden

    FNSR – One hopes so. Friday at the close I rotated 1/3 of my girlfriend’s remaining MSFT options and 1/4 of her remaining AAPL stock to FNSR. That I’m playing with my girlfriend’s money means that I really like the risk/reward ratio. ’cause while it’s okay to screw up your own trades, it’s not okay to screw up the girlfriend’s. ;-)

    I believe that the MSFT options would likely double from here, but now they’re all paid for. I have scenarios for AAPL supporting $300+; however, the scenarios are not fully fleshed out and are dependent upon the overall economy and market continuing to limp along climbing a wall of worry. And that’s not even a double from the current levels.

    I view it likely that FNSR will double to triple by the time they simply get their SEC filings back. And if the business is continuing to operate correctly, there’s substantial additional upside as the progress from break-even to a penny earnings to a nickel to a dime. Got to love those quarters that get reported as sequential 100% earnings increases! And the year after also has easy compares. And then the previously mentioned 4x the current market size by 2010.

    I’ve not yet found a better pure play for a fiber optic mini boom. A technology whose time I believe/hope has come.

    Demetrius, I don’t have time to write something I consider worthy of declaring a “post”. I’m more comfortable with a “comment” as it implies a lesser degree of diligence. I’m not comfortable with making predictions about a company until I’ve read a few years worth of everything available on them. And I just don’t have time for FNSR at that level just yet.

    reinharden

  334. reinharden

    Alibaba.com – I actually have an Alibaba.com account. Try though I have several times (at least a half-dozen seriously, more than that casually), I’ve never been able to close a deal with a manufacturer or distributor via that site.

    On the other hand, I’ve not a very trusting soul.

    reinharden

  335. ramana

    Asia Markets : Tuesday, October 30, 2007

    (The following is from WSJ; please cross check with other sources to confirm.)

    Japan*

    16651.01
    -47.07
    -0.28%

    Hong Kong*

    31638.22
    51.32
    0.16%

    DJ Shanghai*

    550.94
    10.07
    1.86%

    S.Korea*

    2052.37
    -10.55
    -0.51%

    India

    19951.40
    -26.27
    -0.13%

    Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +8 11033

    BDI Charts & Spot Rates – http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

  336. ramana

    Asian Markets Pause Ahead of U.S. Fed Meeting – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21534895
    Asian markets were mostly lower in the afternoon session Tuesday, with Japan, South Korea and Australia ending down as investors held back ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting that is expected to cut interest rates. The two-day meeting kicks off later in the day and the Fed is widely expected to cut its target funds rate by at least 25 basis points to 4.5 percent, taking out further insurance against the U.S. housing slump and credit market problems. At the September meeting, the Fed slashed interest rates by a bold 50 basis points, setting alight global stock markets.

    The Nikkei 225 Average snapped a two-day winning streak, dragged 0.3 percent lower;
    South Korea’s KOSPI closed down 0.5 percent, marking their first decline in four sessions
    as record oil prices hit fuel-cost sensitive stocks;
    Australian shares fell 0.6 percent, retreating from Monday’s record closing peak;
    Hong Kong stocks reversed opening losses amid strong fund flows and before the
    expiry of index futures later in the day;
    Chinese stocks rose also bucked the negative trend led by banks, as liquidity improved following last week’s IPO-related squeeze, and after positive comments about the market by the securities regulator. China Securities Regulatory Commission chairman Shang Fulin told the
    People’s Daily in an interview that China’s capital markets were in a healthy, longer-term upward trend.

  337. ramana

    With One Eye on Fed, European Markets Slide – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21539612
    European stock markets opened lower on Tuesday after a generally disappointing batch of major earnings reports.And mining stocks were the worst performers on the FTSE-100 index, following retreating commodities prices. Looking to the economy, French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde suggested that the jobless figures due out later on Tuesday will “offer good news on the French labor market,” Reuters reported.

  338. ramana

    Fed Expected to Cut Rates To Head Off Recession – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21515949
    The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again this week as insurance against the threat that declining home prices and higher borrowing costs will push the economy into recession. The U.S. central bank, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, is likely to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by at least a quarter point, to 4.5%, a month after cutting both the fed funds and discount rates by half a point. Fed officials expect the economy to slow because of the credit crisis that hit over the summer after worries about sour mortgage loans spread, though strong exports and steady hiring and spending have buoyed the world’s largest economy so far. Analysts anticipate expansion at a 3% annual rate from July through September when the government publishes its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday morning, the day the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is due to announce its decision in interest rates.

  339. ramana

    Fed Rate Cut Not Sure Thing (WSJ)
    A Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week is no sure thing and officials are not seriously considering a half-point reduction in overnight rates, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday without citing sources. The article by Greg Ip, the Journal’s Fed watcher who is known for sometimes reflecting the views of senior central bankers, said policymakers view this week’s decision as a choice between a quarter-point cut to 4.5 percent and not moving at all.
    Investors have widely expected the Fed to cut rates at a two-day meeting ending on Wednesday, following a half-point slash in September, to limit the economic damage from the housing market’s incessant slide.

    CNBC : http://www.cnbc.com/id/21539677/site/14081545
    WSJ : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119370194806575651.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

  340. ramana

    FNSR – Thanks, reinharden.

  341. Phil

    “who is known for SOMETIMES reflecting the views of senior central bankers” – Wow, what an endoresement!

    I’ve got to tell you guys, I read a lot of blogs and this eveing’s discussion right here is the best on the web – you guys rock!

    My .02 is that the entire concept of rate cuts to help consumers is flawed because what really happens it the Fed cuts the discount rate and the banks use it to fatten their margins, not to help the consumer. I wrote an article about this a long time ago but the bottom line is the reason we had record finanical profits the past few years is that the banks used the emergency rate cuts after 9/11 to more than double the yeild spread and they never gave back that ground. Once they had their fat yeild spreads in place the next logical move wat to lend as much money as possible so they gleefully participated in helping to drive up the housing market (if 10M homes a year will be transacted, better they are $400K homes than $250K homes) while lowering deposit requiremnets (the less you put down the more interest they charge you) and creating ridiculous instruments to pull marginal investors into a life of debt.

    While this was going on, the financials jumped in (also fattening their spreads) and began to reignite the LBO game so they could lend Billions at a clip and they fed a stock market frenzy and lobbied for changes in margin rules which encouraged the average investor to leverage his own accounts (and, of course, more expensive stocks mean more margin money!).

    That’s why a half-point rate cut won’t help. Rates are just over 6% now, they were 6% when the rates were 2 points lower than they are now (4.75%). When the Fed dropped rates to 1% for all of 2003, did you get a 4% morgage? A 5% morgage? Fed rates were under 2% from 2002-mid 2004 and mortgage rates never went below a 5.8 average on a 30-year.

    http://www.homefinders.com/historical-interest-rates/

    The friggin’ criminal bastards raped our country for 5 years, enslaved the American people (even changed the bankruptcy laws to make sure they couldn’t get away) and now that they’ve killed the goose that lays the golden egg (the US consumer) they are crying for Federal assistance – it’s shameful!

    I just don’t know if I’m more ashamed of the people who fell for it or the bastards who profited from it or the government that allows it but I do know that I’m ashamed to live in a country where people get away with this…

  342. karmcon

    Pre-Market Analyst Calls (October 30, 2007)

    ACTU raised to Outperform at JMP Securities.
    ATHN started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
    AYI raised to Outperform at Baird.
    DVW cut to Hold at Jefferies.
    FORM raised to Buy at Citigroup.
    GM raised to Buy at UBS.
    HEP started as Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
    HMIN cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
    KGS started as Outperform at Wachovia.
    KMX started as Underperform at Bear Stearns.
    LSI started as Buy at Kaufman.
    MAN raised to Buy at Citigroup.
    MMLP started as Outperform at Wachovia.
    PCZ raised to Outperform at FBR.
    PTP raised to Buy at B of A.
    SLE started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
    SU raised to Mkt Perform at FBR.
    TGP raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
    TOO started as Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
    TUP started as Buy at Jefferies.
    USBE raised to Buy at UBS.

  343. karmcon

    MR

    This may pop on Friday as earnings AMC on 11-1 purportedly are supposed to increase 50% over 2006 prior period. NOV 40′s already up to 2.95 from 2.10 and might grab additional on a dip. Stock price up 5% since last Thurs with volume increase of 145% from same.

  344. karmcon

    Phil,

    I ended up with a 4.625% 30yr amort, 10 year balloon mortgage in 2003 with no points. Hopefully that 10 yr balloon refi provision won’t be an issue in 2014. :neutral:

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging