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Sunday, August 14, 2022

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Virtual Portfolio Review

Just some quick notes on the virtual portfolios which should be published in the morning:

Short-Term Virtual Portfolio

Possibly over-covered as I guess I’m still thinking we stay in my range of 13,000 to 13,300 which, of course, means I feel we have a 300-point drop ahead of us.  Sometimes I’m not sure how I feel about the markets until I analyze my own positions as it’s one thing to say I like this and that on any given day but, when I review my own positions I get to see if I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

So for all my attempting to bargain hunt the last few days, the fact of the matter is I’ve been covering things, NOT buying back callers that are in the money and letting some pretty big puts ride, notably my BIDU Dec $420 puts, which dwarf my other open positions.

I have 700 DIA and SPY puts that are a little better than even as a group.  Ideally they were going to let me get very aggressive on a bull breakout as I’m still 80% cash but I haven’t even bought an index call against them since pre-Thanksgiving and that’s telling.

On the whole, out of $1.5M in market value of open positions (and that INCLUDES offsetting calls/puts sold) I’ve got $600K of naked puts.  Needless to say I won’t be riding that into the weekend but, as of Tuesday morning, I’m not feeling like changing it either.

The STP added 40% from the last time we looked a couple of weeks ago and, at this point, it’s time to start shutting things down and reconcile for taxes so between now and Xmas I will be ruthlessly killing positions I don’t really love as my goal is to start the new year with no more than $1M in this virtual portfolio.  Also, I like to be very neutral from Dec expiration until after new years simply because I’d rather have fun and focus on my family than worry about my positions.

Long-Term Virtual Portfolio

There’s a bunch of open calls in the LTP that needed protecting ($270K) so that’s part of the put imbalance in the STP.  I regret not covering BA, that was silly.  C is a reasonable gamble as is ISRG and AAPL is way, way ahead on the ’10 $150s so I can afford to indulge myself there.

Also, in both the STP and the LTP, most of the spreads are call spreads and the index puts are there to provide CATASTROPHIC protection, not just to protect us from daily wiggles.  Those of you who were heavily in the markets on 9/11 or many days in 2000 don’t need an explanation as to why that’s good to have and those of you who weren’t simply cannot imagine the value of the insurance until you actually need it but, like life insurance, it’s a little late to get a policy after the event!

It’s been a long time since we had a good run in the LTP as the market has gone up and up and up and forced us to make painful readjustments.  The LTP performs best when the market flatlines and the past two weeks have been great with a massive (for the LTP) 46% overall gain.  That’s because we’ve barely moved from where we sold our callers AND the VIX is down 10% from where we sold them, on the whole very painful for the short-term holders but really no trouble at all for the ’09 and ’10 positions we hold in the LTP.

The $10,000 Virtual Portfolio

The $10KP is brand new so there’s nothing to compare it to.  Since it’s been a terrible time to buy short-term calls it’s been a terrible time to start a short-term based virtual portfolio but we’re up $1,173 in 2 weeks, which isn’t terrible but it sure is dull.  I’m looking for some static butterflies or condors we can play, not one we move around like Applefly but something we can set and forget into expiration.

Please note that under type it now says LO, for "Long Option" and SO for "Short Option" which should make it much easier to follow even the more complex spreads!

The $25,000 Virtual Portfolio

Wow – we had a 74% gain in the past two weeks!  The gain on cash was "just" $17.600 but, out of a $25,000 basis, that’s a pretty steep percentage!  We were in slightly better shape on Friday as the open Apples turned rotten on us but I’m pleased with the overall balance to the point where I hate to touch it! 

We have $67K in cash so no real worries but I still want to watch the GOOG put spread carefully and the Apple put spread has probably run it’s course as well.

The difference between the $25KP and the $10KP is I’ve been willing to gamble with the $25KP as we can well afford a hit or two.  $10KP players need to be patient, once we get a little more ahead we can have some fun there too but Buffett’s Rule #1 is "Don’t lose money" and that applies triple to a small virtual portfolio as there is little margin for error.

Happy 100

Well this was simply the wrong time to start a bullishly biased virtual portfolio!  It was also the wrong time to cover IMCL with December $40s etc, etc…  I haven’t had a new pick from Happy in a long time so I’m just going to be looking to unwind this folder, now at $88,910 so I’ll be making some unilateral adjustments to see if it can be fixed by the week’s end.

Stocks Virtual Portfolio

I’m really pleased with this one as we only had the MU and FNF positions at last expiration and I dumped MU and added MRB, NAK, SCI, WM (puts sold) and FRO and made a quick 8% in two weeks.  That’s pretty good for boring old stocks I think!

I do still like MRB at around $5 (someone asked yesterday) and at first I wished I hadn’t sold calls against FRO and now I’m glad I did!

Complex Spreads Virtual Portfolio:

I should probably just call this the GOOG Virtual Portfolio as there seems to be no chance of it changing much from there (CROX is also a permanent resident).  Strangely, there are no Apples left as the Jan $170s stopped out and I got comfortable enough to buy Apples for the LTP and our complex Apple trade moved to the smaller virtual portfolios.

Thanks to Apple’s big run and the explosion of Google since Thanksgiving, this virtual portfolio shot up 121% in two weeks and is outpacing the STP, which is a pretty good trick for a virtual portfolio that was initiated on 4/28!  It’s good to have a couple of mo stocks that you trade regularly and get to know well.  Google and Apple have about 100 trades each and both have averaged about a 40% return so that’s close to a trade a day at 40% on the average.  If we have another good bottom, I’ll be happy to go back into both but, for now this will be another set that I need to reduce into the holidays.  We’re already 70% cash and just the GOOG Jan ’09 $680s are $195K so moving those to the LTP will effectively drop this set to 90% cash for the end of the year.

Closed positions:

On the whole, we’ve "only" closed 132 positions in the past two weeks but the average gain was 76% as we were very good about taking profits at the top and bottom of our expected range.  The gain on cash was a very nice 33% and, for the first time in a long time, very little came from the DIAs. 

27 Positions closed were Apple, reflecting the madness of running AppleFly plays in two virtual portfolios but, other than that it’s a pretty good mix as I’ve been aiming for balance, balance and balance as we move into the holidays:

Description

Type

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

10 DEC 07 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVLN) SO  $  15,010 11/20  $    9,990 11/30  $    (5,020) -33%
20 DEC 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVLP) SO  $  19,010 11/29  $  19,490 11/30  $        480 3%
5 DEC 07 190.00 AAPL CALL (APVLR) SO  $    1,910 11/29  $    2,365 11/30  $        455 24%
2 DEC 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVLP) SO  $    1,910 11/29  $    1,940 11/30  $         30 2%
2 DEC 07 190.00 AAPL CALL (APVLR) SO  $      770 11/29  $       940 11/30  $        170 22%
8 DEC 07 175.00 AAPL PUT (APVXO) LO  $    3,282 11/28  $    3,790 11/30  $        508 16%
5 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVLM) SO  $    8,760 11/20  $    6,240 11/29  $    (2,520) -29%
5 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVLM) SO  $    8,760 11/27  $    7,440 11/29  $    (1,320) -15%
10 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVLM) SO  $  17,510 11/15  $  11,990 11/29  $    (5,520) -32%
10 DEC 07 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVLO) LO  $    6,160 11/15  $  10,240 11/29  $     4,080 66%
5 DEC 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVLP) LO  $    2,185 11/19  $    3,640 11/29  $     1,455 67%
20 DEC 07 175.00 AAPL PUT (APVXO) LO  $    9,030 11/28  $    9,490 11/29  $        460 5%
5 DEC 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVLP) LO  $    2,760 11/26  $    3,615 11/29  $        855 31%
2 DEC 07 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVLP) LO  $      880 11/19  $    1,450 11/29  $        570 65%
2 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVLM) SO  $    3,510 11/20  $    2,510 11/29  $    (1,000) -29%
50 DEC 07 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVLN) SO  $  62,510 11/15  $  45,480 11/28  $  (17,030) -27%
5 DEC 07 160.00 AAPL PUT (APVXL) LO  $    1,485 11/27  $       790 11/28  $       (695) -47%
5 DEC 07 170.00 AAPL PUT (APVXN) SO  $    2,010 11/27  $    3,390 11/28  $     1,380 69%
10 DEC 07 160.00 AAPL PUT (APVXL) LO  $    6,310 11/15  $    1,590 11/28  $    (4,720) -75%
10 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL PUT (APVXM) SO  $    2,710 11/15  $  12,740 11/28  $   10,030 370%
2 DEC 07 165.00 AAPL PUT (APVXM) LO  $      850 11/27  $       470 11/28  $       (380) -45%
2 DEC 07 170.00 AAPL PUT (APVXN) SO  $      810 11/20  $    2,440 11/28  $     1,630 201%
5 DEC 07 150.00 AAPL PUT (APVXJ) LO  $    2,160 11/19  $       865 11/27  $    (1,295) -60%
2 DEC 07 160.00 AAPL PUT (APVXL) LO  $      910 11/20  $       580 11/27  $       (330) -36%
40 JAN 08 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVAN) LO  $  46,810 11/8  $  61,990 11/20  $   15,180 32%
2 DEC 07 150.00 AAPL PUT (APVXJ) LO  $      870 11/19  $       710 11/20  $       (160) -18%
5 JAN 08 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVAN) LO  $    6,710 11/13  $    6,615 11/19  $        (95) -1%
10 APR 08 57.50 AMGN CALL (YAADY) LO  $    3,560 11/30  $    2,990 12/3  $       (570) -16%
5 JAN 08 55.00 AMGN CALL (YAAAK) SO  $    1,110 11/30  $    1,365 12/3  $        255 23%
10 APR 08 57.50 AMGN CALL (YAADY) LO  $    3,560 11/30  $    2,990 12/3  $       (570) -16%
5 JAN 08 55.00 AMGN CALL (YAAAK) SO  $    1,110 11/30  $    1,365 12/3  $        255 23%
70 JAN 08 12.50 AUY CALL (AUYAV) SO  $    9,810 11/20  $  11,550 11/28  $     1,740 18%
40 JAN 08 55.00 AXP CALL (AXPAK) LO  $  16,810 11/7  $  17,990 11/20  $     1,180 7%
40 DEC 07 90.00 BA CALL (BALR) SO  $  15,010 11/19  $    9,990 11/27  $    (5,020) -33%
20 DEC 07 390.00 BIDU PUT (BPJXR) SO  $  56,010 11/29  $  67,990 11/30  $   11,980 21%
40 DEC 07 320.00 BIDU PUT (BDUXC) SO  $  24,010 11/16  $  59,990 11/30  $   35,980 150%
5 DEC 07 310.00 BIDU PUT (BDUXA) SO  $    2,510 11/16  $    4,490 11/30  $     1,980 79%
20 DEC 07 310.00 BIDU PUT (BDUXA) SO  $  12,010 11/16  $  59,990 11/29  $   47,980 400%
20 JAN 08 360.00 BIDU PUT (BPJML) LO  $    7,870 9/12  $  65,990 11/29  $   58,120 739%
40 DEC 07 100.00 BSC CALL (BVDLT) SO  $  16,010 11/16  $  18,790 11/20  $     2,780 17%
800 DEC 07 32.50 C CALL (CLT) LO  $  83,230 11/19  $127,970 11/28  $   44,740 54%
20 JAN 09 35.00 C CALL (VRNAG) LO  $    6,410 8/1  $    9,090 11/20  $     2,680 42%
20 JAN 08 22.50 CAKE CALL (CFQAX) LO  $    5,080 10/2  $    2,580 11/19  $    (2,500) -49%
20 DEC 07 70.00 CAT CALL (CATLN) SO  $    3,010 11/20  $    2,830 11/27  $       (180) -6%
50 DEC 07 10.00 CFC PUT (CFCXB) LO  $    3,510 11/30  $    5,990 12/3  $     2,480 71%
20 DEC 07 35.00 COH CALL (COHLG) SO  $    1,510 11/12  $    3,890 11/27  $     2,380 158%
20 DEC 07 60.00 CROX PUT (CQJXL) LO  $    8,010 10/17  $  45,190 11/27  $   37,180 464%
30 DEC 07 30.00 CSCO CALL (CYQLF) LO  $    3,660 10/26  $    3,060 11/19  $       (600) -16%
40 DEC 07 30.00 CY CALL (CYLF) SO  $    9,010 11/20  $  12,390 11/27  $     3,380 38%
8 JAN 08 30.00 DELL CALL (DLQAF) SO  $        50 11/29  $       670 11/30  $        620 1240%
200 DEC 07 133.00 DIA PUT (DAWXC) SO  $  40,010 11/27  $  39,990 11/30  $        (20) 0%
200 DEC 07 130.00 DIA CALL (DAWLZ) LO  $  59,010 11/20  $  99,990 11/28  $   40,980 69%
400 DEC 07 130.00 DIA PUT (DAWXZ) LO  $119,210 11/19  $159,990 11/27  $   40,780 34%
200 DEC 07 133.00 DIA PUT (DAWXC) LO  $  70,410 11/8  $105,990 11/20  $   35,580 51%
200 DEC 07 132.00 DIA CALL (DAWLB) LO  $  54,610 11/7  $  51,390 11/20  $    (3,220) -6%
200 DEC 07 133.00 DIA PUT (DAWXC) LO  $  70,410 11/8  $  99,990 11/19  $   29,580 42%
50 DEC 07 135.00 DIA PUT (DAWXE) LO  $  16,530 11/6  $  29,720 11/19  $   13,190 80%
200 DEC 07 25.00 ELN CALL (ELNLE) LO  $  20,010 11/14  $  15,990 11/19  $    (4,020) -20%
20 JAN 08 60.00 ERTS CALL (EZQAL) LO  $    4,310 11/20  $    3,790 11/19  $       (520) -12%
200 DEC 07 5.00 ETFC CALL (EUSLA) SO  $    4,010 11/19  $    4,990 12/3  $        980 24%
30 DEC 07 240.00 FSLR CALL (HJQLW) SO  $  45,010 11/30  $  71,990 12/3  $   26,980 60%
10 DEC 07 250.00 FSLR CALL (HJQLX) SO  $  11,010 11/30  $  10,990 12/3  $        (20) 0%
10 DEC 07 210.00 FSLR CALL (HJQLB) SO  $  27,510 11/16  $  19,990 11/29  $    (7,520) -27%
30 DEC 07 200.00 FSLR CALL (HJQLT) SO  $  67,510 11/6  $  31,490 11/27  $  (36,020) -53%
20 DEC 07 170.00 FXI CALL (FVULN) LO  $  46,010 11/2  $  43,490 11/30  $    (2,520) -6%
40 DEC 07 190.00 FXI CALL (FVULH) LO  $  17,210 11/27  $  26,390 11/28  $     9,180 53%
10 JAN 08 45.00 GDX CALL (GDXAS) LO  $    3,110 9/27  $    4,290 11/20  $     1,180 38%
20 JAN 08 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOAJ) LO  $  37,510 11/12  $149,990 11/30  $ 112,480 300%
2 DEC 07 730.00 GOOG CALL (GOQLF) LO  $    7,530 11/6  $    2,990 11/30  $    (4,540) -60%
2 DEC 07 710.00 GOOG CALL (GOQLB) LO  $    1,810 11/27  $    4,010 11/29  $     2,200 122%
20 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  70,010 11/20  $  63,390 11/27  $    (6,620) -10%
15 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  48,760 11/20  $  47,540 11/27  $    (1,220) -3%
20 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  65,010 11/20  $  63,390 11/27  $    (1,620) -3%
10 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  32,510 11/20  $  31,690 11/27  $       (820) -3%
2 DEC 07 710.00 GOOG CALL (GOQLB) SO  $    1,810 11/6  $  10,270 11/27  $     8,460 467%
20 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  37,010 11/16  $  49,990 11/19  $   12,980 35%
15 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  27,760 11/16  $  37,490 11/19  $     9,730 35%
20 DEC 07 650.00 GOOG CALL (GOOLJ) SO  $  37,010 11/17  $  35,990 11/19  $    (1,020) -3%
5 DEC 07 680.00 GOOG CALL (GOQLP) SO  $    5,760 11/13  $  11,490 11/19  $     5,730 100%
20 DEC 07 230.00 GS CALL (GPYLF) SO  $    8,010 11/20  $  11,990 11/27  $     3,980 50%
20 JAN 08 240.00 GS CALL (GPYAH) LO  $  18,010 11/2  $  18,190 11/20  $        180 1%
5 JAN 08 220.00 GS CALL (GPYAD) LO  $    9,710 11/5  $  10,690 11/20  $        980 10%
20 DEC 07 220.00 GS CALL (GPYLD) LO  $  29,210 11/7  $  31,990 11/20  $     2,780 10%
30 JAN 08 52.50 GSK CALL (GSKAX) LO  $      310 10/22  $    1,790 11/20  $     1,480 477%
20 DEC 07 50.00 HPQ CALL (HPQLJ) SO  $    1,510 11/20  $    1,790 11/27  $        280 19%
10 DEC 07 180.00 ICE CALL (IHHLP) SO  $    2,510 11/16  $    2,490 11/27  $        (20) -1%
40 DEC 07 25.00 INTC CALL (INQLE) SO  $    3,010 11/20  $    2,990 11/27  $        (20) -1%
10 DEC 07 300.00 ISRG CALL (AXVLT) SO  $  12,510 11/15  $  15,990 11/27  $     3,480 28%
10 DEC 07 300.00 ISRG CALL (AXVLT) SO  $  12,510 11/20  $  17,500 11/27  $     4,990 40%
10 JAN 08 115.00 LVS CALL (LVSAC) LO  $  25,610 10/29  $    6,890 11/27  $  (18,720) -73%
10 DEC 07 115.00 LVS CALL (LVSLC) SO  $    3,710 11/20  $    6,790 11/27  $     3,080 83%
10 DEC 07 115.00 LVS CALL (LVSLC) SO  $    6,010 11/16  $    9,990 11/19  $     3,980 66%
25 JAN 08 40.00 MAR CALL (MARAH) LO  $    2,510 10/12  $    2,690 11/30  $        180 7%
50 DEC 07 50.00 MDT CALL (MDTLJ) LO  $    3,510 11/20  $    4,990 11/20  $     1,480 42%
10 DEC 07 47.50 MDT CALL (MDTLW) LO  $    1,110 11/17  $    2,340 11/20  $     1,230 111%
10 DEC 07 35.00 MSFT CALL (MSQLG) SO  $      410 11/20  $       700 11/27  $        290 71%
100 DEC 07 37.50 MSFT CALL (MSQLU) SO  $    1,310 11/2  $    2,990 11/19  $     1,680 128%
10 APR 08 32.50 MSFT CALL (MSQDZ) LO  $    1,960 10/25  $    3,640 11/19  $     1,680 86%
50 DEC 07 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMLJ) LO  $  11,510 11/28  $  11,990 11/30  $        480 4%
50 DEC 07 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMLJ) LO  $  11,510 11/28  $  16,490 11/28  $     4,980 43%
20 DEC 07 27.50 NFLX CALL (QNQLY) SO  $      310 11/5  $    2,790 11/19  $     2,480 800%
16 DEC 07 80.00 NYX CALL (NYXLP) SO  $    5,210 11/20  $    6,560 11/27  $     1,350 26%
20 JAN 08 30.00 OXPS CALL (QYBAF) LO  $    2,190 4/2  $    2,890 11/19  $        700 32%
20 DEC 07 75.00 PEP CALL (PEPLO) SO  $    3,610 11/20  $    3,190 11/27  $       (420) -12%
40 MAR 08 25.00 PFE CALL (PFECE) LO  $    4,210 9/27  $    2,390 11/19  $    (1,820) -43%
20 FEB 08 45.00 PNRA CALL (UPABI) LO  $      510 9/27  $    1,230 11/20  $        720 141%
20 DEC 07 195.00 PTR CALL (PTRLV) SO  $  13,510 11/16  $  11,990 11/19  $    (1,520) -11%
20 DEC 07 42.00 QID CALL (QIDLP) SO  $    2,310 11/20  $    3,990 11/28  $     1,680 73%
40 DEC 07 116.63 RIMM CALL (RULLF) SO  $  24,890 11/16  $  28,790 11/19  $     3,900 16%
100 JAN 08 22.50 RMBS CALL (BNQAX) LO  $    2,510 9/12  $    6,990 11/20  $     4,480 179%
140 DEC 07 22.50 SBUX CALL (SQXLX) LO  $  11,210 11/16  $  16,090 11/20  $     4,880 44%
10 JAN 7.50 SCI CALL (SCIAU) LO  $    2,160 11/15  $    5,290 11/26  $     3,130 145%
4 DEC 07 110.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLB) SO  $      950 11/27  $    3,190 12/3  $     2,240 236%
40 DEC 07 115.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLC) SO  $    2,010 11/20  $    2,390 11/27  $        380 19%
4 MAR 08 120.00 SHLD CALL (KTQCD) LO  $    4,550 11/20  $    3,750 11/27  $       (800) -18%
4 DEC 07 125.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLE) SO  $      810 11/20  $    1,270 11/27  $        460 57%
20 DEC 07 125.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLE) SO  $    6,010 11/14  $    6,990 11/20  $        980 16%
20 DEC 07 125.00 SHLD CALL (KTQLE) SO  $    6,010 11/14  $    8,390 11/20  $     2,380 40%
4 MAR 08 130.00 SHLD CALL (KTQCY) LO  $    7,450 10/16  $    2,950 11/19  $    (4,500) -60%
20 JAN 08 42.50 SNDK CALL (SWQAV) LO  $    1,010 10/18  $    2,090 11/20  $     1,080 107%
10 JAN 08 120.00 SPWR CALL (QSUAU) LO  $  15,360 11/10  $  14,690 11/20  $       (670) -4%
40 DEC 07 95.00 SU PUT (SUXS) LO  $  11,930 11/28  $  13,990 11/30  $     2,060 17%
20 DEC 07 110.00 SU PUT (SUXB) LO  $    4,140 9/12  $  27,160 11/27  $   23,020 556%
5 JAN 08 40.00 T CALL (TAH) SO  $      290 10/19  $    1,415 11/27  $     1,125 388%
5 APR 08 42.50 T CALL (TDV) LO  $    1,510 9/27  $       450 11/27  $    (1,060) -70%
20 DEC 07 40.00 T CALL (TLH) SO  $    1,110 11/12  $    2,590 11/19  $     1,480 133%
20 DEC 07 32.50 TXN CALL (TXNLZ) SO  $      610 10/26  $    2,130 11/20  $     1,520 249%
20 DEC 07 70.00 WFR CALL (WFRLN) SO  $    6,010 11/20  $    9,990 11/27  $     3,980 66%
20 DEC 07 75.00 WFR CALL (WFRLO) SO  $    2,210 11/15  $    6,990 11/20  $     4,780 216%
30 DEC 07 90.00 X PUT (XXR) LO  $    4,230 11/30  $    5,370 11/30  $     1,140 27%
30 JAN 08 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMMS) LO  $  10,210 10/29  $  31,190 11/27  $   20,980 206%
25 DEC 07 25.00 YHOO CALL (YHQLE) SO  $    4,260 11/12  $    5,875 11/27  $     1,615 38%

 

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Phil. Are you gonna upload the spreadsheets so we can review??

Also. had an order it to sell Dell Dec to regain some of the lost money in the 10KP. But just removed my order as Dell has just announced a buyback. Thoughts Phil?

Thanks Phil.

BTW. I have DELL Feb 5x 25’s and 5x 30’s. No Cover at the moment.

Phil – Are you still comfortable with MA $190 PUTs?

Phil,

AMGN Yesterday it looked intent to breakup through 55, with general outlook today what do you think about covering with some Dec 57.5?

thanks

Lukas

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