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Archive for December 31st, 2007

Index Round-Up ‘07

"We have problems on the North, South, East and West,
New York City, Saint Louis, Philadelphia, Los Angeles,
Detroit, Chicago,
Everybody has problems,
And personally, I don’t care."
- Alice Cooper

I wish I could say I was happy to put this year behind us but it’s been a fantastic year and I doubt we can expect the same from 2008.  We have many burstable bubbles that may join the housing bubble in decline including oil and metals as well as Asian markets if we get a stall over there.

I continue to believe that US equities are the least sucky place for global investors to put their money in ‘08 for the same reasons I outlined in August, when we were still below 13,100 and we had just made our bottom call the week before.  Although the Dow, Nasdaq and the NYSE are well up since then, we’ve lost ground on the Transports, S&P and SOX so our mission for January is clear - will the top three come down or will the bottom three come up (the Russell is our tiebreaker).

There you go, that’s everything you need to predict the markets in Q1.  Now let’s take a closer look at our indices:

Dow - Weak dollar means strong International sales plus lots of dividends make for a fun "flight to quality play" (if you can call GM quality that is).  We are sitting exactly on the 200 dma at 13,350 with the 50 dma about to form a "Death Cross" and it will only take the smallest bit of bad news to push us to retest the 2007 lows around 12,500 whch is how I agree, yet disagree with Stuart Freeman (BusinessWeek’s market forecast winner of ‘07) as he sees the Dow bottoming in the summer in the low 12,000’s but I see it going lower now and topping in the summer, perhaps close to 15,000 but we both see the year ending around 14,500.

Transports - This is the Achilles heel of the Dow as the energy sector must fall for the transports to prosper.  $100 oil is now required for oil companies to grow into their values but it’s already murdering the consumers and driving up costs for the transports - their own private little stagflation spiral that no amount of Fed cutting is going to fix.

S&P - It’s very disturbing that the broader S&P should underperform the Dow by half in ‘07.  You hear nothing of this in the MSM as…
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Phil's Favorites

More Idiocy From the SEC: Reinstatement of Short-Selling Restrictions

More Idiocy From the SEC: Reinstatement of Short-Selling Restrictions

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are reading S.E.C. May Reinstate Rules for Short-Selling Stocks

They have been reviled as the bad hats of Wall Street, nefarious traders who cashed in on the market collapse and, some insist, helped precipitate it.

Now short-sellers, the market skeptics who correctly called last year’s downturn, are coming under even more unwanted scrutiny, this time from federal regulators. The Securities and Exchange Commission appears poised to reverse itself and reinstate rules that would make shorting stocks ...

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David Fry

Dave's Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry's ETF Digest, July 2, 2009

  Maybe, maybe not—this is all I can say since bulls have repeatedly demonstrated their “energizer bunny” quality. Maybe over the weekend investors will forget about the sting of today’s drop as no doubt the powers that be will roll-out their spokesmen to cheer everyone up. This action is why over roughly the past two months our cash balances have been high. Once we got the weekly DeMark sequential 9 counts we were expecting a reaction. Sometimes we just move in a herky-jerky manner sideways while in other circumstances we get an immediate impact. If the trends are very strong then the DeMark 9 can be blown away and that’s the tricky part—how to get back in. But, never mind...


http://www.etfdigest.com/ more from David

Zero Hedge

Who Is Selling Wholesale Vol And Why?

Who Is Selling Wholesale Vol And Why? Courtesy of Tyler Durden at 4:23 PM The chart below indicates that while the market is exactly where it was in early December 2008, the VIX has droped by almost 60%. And traditional theories that suggest that the corporate risk is merely being offset to sovereing don't seem to hold much sway- US CDS is again trading at ludicrously tight level. So the question arises: just who is selling 1 month forward vol, and just how are they hedging effectively. Granted, one could make the argument that risk was priced at "total chaos" levels in November and December, the market was running a more headless chicken in March and breaching lower loes, yet the VIX was unable to even threaten penetrating penetrate...

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Trading Goddess

Stocks Going Ex Dividend during the Second Week of July

If you want to try the stock trading technique called 'Buying Dividends,' which is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend, there are many stocks to choose from. This technique generally works only in bull markets.

When you buy dividends, there are many stocks in many different sectors to choose from. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can't sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork has compiled a free downloadable and sortable Excel list of the stocks going ex dividend during the first half of July. They came up with many companies all with market caps over $500 million. Her...

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Insider Zone & Channel Checkers


Insiders Dump Shares at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

Insiders Dump Shares at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

Courtesy of Mish

Bloomberg is reporting Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years

Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago. Insiders of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the gauge rose 36 percent, data compiled by InsiderScore.com show. Amgen Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer and five other officials sold $8.2 million of stock. Christopher Donahue, the CEO...
http://www.insidercow.com / more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 29th, 2009

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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Oxen Group Trades

Oxen Group's Buy Pick

What to Buy: ERX/ERY

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

On Thursday, The Oxen Group wants to approach the Oxen Buy Pick a little differently. A pattern we are noticing is that economic data is moving this market no matter what other fundamentals and technicals may be out there. Tomorrow, the day will be ruled by unemployment figures coming out from the Labor Department. The estimated number is 9.6%. If we hit that or are below, then the market is going green. If not, we are going red the whole day. It all depends on that 9:30 AM announcement.

The oil market, as well, will move with this announcement. It is hard to predict which way it will swing. If we were betting, we would say a miss higher and into the red.  But its impossible to know for sure. Therefore, if it misses and it is higher you w...



more from Oxen Group


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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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