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Long Term Virtual Portfolio Review

By phil
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122

Well it’s 7:15 and the Dow is up 150 points pre-market so we’ll see what happens.

This is on of those times when I find myself accidentally bullish as we had a ton of dead callers the last 2 days and I just couldn’t bring myself to cover at some of these lows.  Frankly I would have been pretty screwed if we opened down 150 points!  I will cover if we head down again, I’d rather give up a month out of 12 (or 24 mostly) than let myself get flushed out of position.  That’s what happened with the BSX plays and they’ve been uproductive for months and now they are dead!

I have to go with the other format on these as there are just too many positions to review the other way.  I will include which plays I like as new entries as there are a lot of them in here.  For the most part, I do absolutely, unequivocably LOVE my LTP plays:

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
10 APR 08 160.00 AAPL CALL (APVDL) LO $ 4,220.00 7/25/2007 $ 19,050.00   177
$ 14,830.00 351.4 %
20 APR 08 160.00 AAPL CALL (APVDL) LO $ 39,610.00 12/18/2007 $ 38,100.00   31
$ -1,510.00 -3.8 %
20 JAN 08 160.00 AAPL CALL (APVAL) SO $ 5,960.00 1/16/2008 $ 12,390.00   2
$ 6,430.00 51.9 %
10 JAN 08 160.00 AAPL CALL (APVAL) SO $ 2,980.00 1/16/2008 $ 3,880.00   2
$ 900.00 23.2 %
These guys are probably going to burn me in the morning.  I WILL be moving these to the ’10 $150s, which are $54 but not yet as I expect a good pop.  I’m rolling all 30 of these callers into 10 Feb $160s, probably even and I’ll risk the rest if the market holds  12,250 – otherwise 2/3 cover and roll back to July!  
$ 20,650.00 39.1 %
AIG
50 JAN 09 60.00 AIG CALL (VAFAL) LO $ 25,160.00 11/2/2007 $ 28,000.00   77
$ 2,840.00 11.3 %
50 JAN 08 55.00 AIG CALL (AIGAK) SO $ 3,000.00 1/11/2008 $ 19,740.00   7
$ 16,740.00 84.8 %
ABK is the problem here.  They (and others) cut AIG’s risk profiles and the cost of bond insurance is flying so they may be in for a rough year.    This is very dependent on the nature of the bail-out but I will target the $55s for my next sale.
$ 19,580.00 69.5 %
AXP
20 JAN 09 45.00 AXP CALL (VAXAI) LO $ 18,610.00 9/4/2007 $ 11,600.00   136
$ -7,010.00 -37.7 %
20 APR 08 42.50 AXP CALL (AXPDV) SO $ 8,000.00 1/14/2008 $ 5,990.00   4
$ -2,010.00 -33.6 %
Another one we have to grind out.  I think they can hold $42.50 and I’ll wait until next week to find out.  If I were more enthusiastic I’d DD but I’m not.
$ -9,020.00 -33.9 %
BA
40 JAN 09 80.00 BA CALL (VBOAP) LO $ 46,410.00 9/4/2007 $ 38,800.00   136
$ -7,610.00 -16.4 %
This one hurts but I can’t bring myself to sell Feb $80s yet.
$ -7,610.00 -16.4 %
BMY
30 JAN 10 25.00 BMY CALL (WBMAE) LO $ 10,900.00 8/21/2007 $ 9,150.00   150
$ -1,750.00 -16.1 %
These I heartily recommend as a new entry, no interest in covering down here.
$ -1,750.00 -16.1 %
BSC
10 APR 08 75.00 BSC CALL (BVDDO) LO $ 12,280.00 12/21/2007 $ 7,600.00   28
$ -4,680.00 -38.1 %
10 JAN 08 75.00 BSC CALL (BVDAO) SO $ 1,250.00 1/9/2008 $ 2,190.00   9
$ 940.00 42.9 %
Tight stop on the caller ahead of Bush but I WILL cover this scary company at least 1/2
$ -3,740.00 -27.6 %
BSX
20 JAN 17.50 BSX CALL (BSXAW) LO $ 2,000.00 11/21/2006 $ 0.00   423
$ -2,000.00 -100.0 %
20 JAN 08 17.50 BSX CALL (BSXAW) LO $ 510.00 11/21/2006 $ 0.00   423
$ -510.00 -100.0 %
50 JAN 09 12.50 BSX CALL (VSBAV) LO $ 8,260.00 8/27/2007 $ 11,500.00   144
$ 3,240.00 39.2 %
I only wanted to get even and now I’m even.  I should quit here on these but I still believe so I’ll risk it a while.  As a new long/short I like these as the Jan calls are $2.30 and the Feb $12.50s are .85 (3/4 sell).
$ 730.00 6.8 %
BWLD
20 MAR 08 25.00 BWLD CALL (BQUCE) LO $ 6,370.00 10/31/2007 $ 1,300.00   79
$ -5,070.00 -79.6 %
I’m just stunned on these.  Dead play.
$ -5,070.00 -79.6 %
C
40 JAN 10 25.00 C CALL (WRVAE) LO $ 26,730.00 11/7/2007 $ 20,200.00   72
$ -6,530.00 -24.4 %
These have held up quite well and you can sell Feb $27.50s for .53 so this is another one I still like as a new play.
$ -6,530.00 -24.4 %
CAT
20 JAN 09 70.00 CAT CALL (VKTAN) LO $ 20,110.00 7/13/2007 $ 10,100.00   189
$ -10,010.00 -49.8 %
GE says life is good but I don’t have the heart to roll CAT lower so I’m hoping for BTE earnings.
$ -10,010.00 -49.8 %
COH
20 JAN 09 25.00 COH CALL (VZFAE) LO $ 13,960.00 8/29/2007 $ 9,800.00   142
$ -4,160.00 -29.8 %
We knew this would be a bumpy ride.  Waiting until next week and I like them new at $4.90 
$ -4,160.00 -29.8 %
CY
80 MAR 08 30.00 CY CALL (CYCF) LO $ 34,410.00 12/26/2007 $ 8,000.00   23
$ -26,410.00 -76.8 %
Got caught with my pants down.  These don’t belong in the LTP anyway so I will close them here and concentrate on STP position.   The Jan $25s for $5.50 against the Feb $25s for $1.88 (3/4) are an XXX XXX XXX!  
$ -26,410.00 -76.8 %
DELL
20 JAN 10 20.00 DELL CALL (WDQAD) LO $ 13,090.00 12/19/2007 $ 10,800.00   30
$ -2,290.00 -17.5 %
20 JAN 10 20.00 DELL CALL (WDQAD) LO $ 13,080.00 12/19/2007 $ 10,800.00   30
$ -2,280.00 -17.4 %
20 JAN 08 20.00 DELL CALL (DLYAD) SO $ 1,900.00 1/11/2008 $ 2,590.00   7
$ 690.00 26.6 %
These are fine.  STX is putting drives somewhere so I’ll go naked and find out.  I like these new and naked for $5.40.
$ -3,880.00 -13.8 %
GS
10 JAN 09 190.00 GS CALL (VSDAR) LO $ 17,750.00 11/8/2007 $ 32,000.00   71
$ 14,250.00 80.3 %
10 JAN 09 190.00 GS CALL (VSDAR) LO $ 16,760.00 11/8/2007 $ 32,000.00   71
$ 15,240.00 90.9 %
10 JAN 08 195.00 GS CALL (GPYAS) SO $ 1,050.00 1/16/2008 $ 6,500.00   2
$ 5,450.00 83.8 %
WTF?  This is why the sell-off seems overdone.  Have to stop out $195s if Bush comes through, will half cover on a good run, hopefully with Feb $200s close to $10.  These are good new if you are into day trading the short leg but risky otherwise. 
$ 34,940.00 98.3 %
HD
40 AUG 08 25.00 HD CALL (HDHE) LO $ 14,610.00 11/30/2007 $ 14,800.00   49
$ 190.00 1.3 %
I can’t believe I was right not to cover!  I will sell the Feb $27.50s for $1 and these make a nice new entry as they should have a BTE Q4.   
$ 190.00 1.3 %
HOV
60 JAN 09 7.50 HOV CALL (OZWAU) LO $ 16,810.00 11/15/2007 $ 12,600.00   64
$ -4,210.00 -25.0 %
40 JAN 09 5.00 HOV CALL (OZWAA) LO $ 11,210.00 12/11/2007 $ 12,400.00   38
$ 1,190.00 10.6 %
I will cover 60 Feb $7.50 if they hit $1
$ -3,020.00 -10.8 %
INTC
40 JAN 09 22.50 INTC CALL (VNLAX) LO $ 15,610.00 1/3/2008 $ 6,840.00   15
$ -8,770.00 -56.2 %
I just want it to stop hurting!  Must spend .90 to roll to $20s.   You can get .55  for the Feb $20s but I can’t bring myself to sell that cheap.
$ -8,770.00 -56.2 %
ISRG
5 JAN 10 280.00 ISRG CALL (WKDAH) LO $ 22,500.00 11/8/2007 $ 36,650.00   71
$ 14,150.00 62.9 %
5 JAN 10 280.00 ISRG CALL (WKDAH) LO $ 14,010.00 11/8/2007 $ 36,650.00   71
$ 22,640.00 161.6 %
LOL!  You can sell the Feb $260s for $23 against these $73 positions!  I’m hoping to sell the $280s for $20 on a move otherwise I’ll roll down and sell 1/2.  I LOVE these guys as a new play. 
$ 36,790.00 100.8 %
MCD
40 JAN 09 50.00 MCD CALL (VMDAJ) LO $ 35,410.00 1/11/2008 $ 29,200.00   7
$ -6,210.00 -17.5 %
Looks like I picked the wrong week to go positive on McDonald’s!  I will DD if they hit $6 but otherwise I’ll keep waiting for my bounce. 
$ -6,210.00 -17.5 %
MDT
20 JAN 09 50.00 MDT CALL (VKDAJ) LO $ 6,010.00 9/6/2007 $ 9,200.00   134
$ 3,190.00 53.1 %
I like them too much to sell calls here.
$ 3,190.00 53.1 %
MRVL
30 JAN 25.00 MRVL CALL (OZLAE) LO $ 1,060.00 7/27/2007 $ 450.00   175
$ -610.00 -57.5 %
These caught me off guard.  Just watching and waiting.
$ -610.00 -57.5 %
NEM
50 JUN 08 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMFJ) LO $ 21,510.00 12/21/2007 $ 38,500.00   28
$ 16,990.00 79.0 %
50 JAN 08 52.50 NEM CALL (NEMAX) SO $ 5,500.00 1/3/2008 $ 15,990.00   15
$ 10,490.00 65.6 %
Taking them out at the bell, big mistake not to kill them yesterday (I thought they were $55 calls).   If I get burned in the morning I’ll probably roll them but, if I get out with a 50% profit, I’m willing to risk giving it back by staying naked. 
$ 27,480.00 101.7 %
SBUX
30 JAN 09 17.50 SBUX CALL (VPRAW) LO $ 11,370.00 8/1/2007 $ 11,700.00   170
$ 330.00 2.9 %
30 JAN 09 17.50 SBUX CALL (VPRAW) LO $ 11,380.00 8/1/2007 $ 11,700.00   170
$ 320.00 2.8 %
30 JAN 08 17.50 SBUX CALL (SQXAW) SO $ 4,800.00 1/14/2008 $ 6,740.00   4
$ 1,940.00 28.8 %
I only don’t recommend them because I worry that I’m delusional but, to me, these guys are about 50% undervalued.
$ 2,590.00 9.4 %
SHFL
40 JAN 09 15.00 SHFL CALL (ZTHAC) LO $ 3,610.00 9/12/2007 $ 1,600.00   128
$ -2,010.00 -55.7 %
40 JAN 08 10.00 SHFL CALL (SFQAB) SO $ 200.00 1/7/2008 $ 1,990.00   11
$ 1,790.00 89.9 %
No sense throuwing good money after bad.  The calls are paid for by the callers so I’ll just leave them a while.  There’s no money in selling cals so they are no longer interesting.
$ -220.00 -5.8 %
SNDK
40 APR 08 30.00 SNDK CALL (SWQDF) LO $ 14,010.00 6/3/2007 $ 9,800.00   229
$ -4,210.00 -30.0 %
Another one I have to wait on.
$ -4,210.00 -30.0 %
STX
40 JAN 09 25.00 STX CALL (VTTAE) LO $ 18,810.00 10/18/2007 $ 9,400.00   92
$ -9,410.00 -50.0 %
40 JAN 08 25.00 STX CALL (STXAE) SO $ 600.00 1/3/2008 $ 4,190.00   15
$ 3,590.00 85.7 %
These are fine, I very much doubt they hit $25 today but these calls are a great deal at $2.35!
$ -5,820.00 -30.0 %
TXN
20 JAN 09 30.00 TXN CALL (VXTAF) LO $ 4,310.00 12/29/2006 $ 7,400.00   385
$ 3,090.00 71.7 %
20 JAN 09 30.00 TXN CALL (VXTAF) LO $ 9,010.00 10/24/2007 $ 7,400.00   86
$ -1,610.00 -17.9 %
I LOVE these at $3.70, way undervalued.  Not selling calls right now.
$ 1,480.00 11.1 %
UTX
15 JAN 09 75.00 UTX CALL (VXUAO) LO $ 4,510.00 7/13/2007 $ 7,950.00   189
$ 3,440.00 76.3 %
15 JAN 08 75.00 UTX CALL (UTXAO) SO $ 75.00 1/7/2008 $ 1,790.00   11
$ 1,715.00 95.8 %
These have been very nice to own.  You can buy the ’09 $70s for $7.60 and I’m going naked for now but the Feb $70s net $1.70 so a great monthly income. 
$ 5,155.00 112.4 %
WFR
20 JAN 70.00 WFR CALL (ZYGAN) LO $ 2,610.00 4/20/2007 $ 37,200.00   273
$ 34,590.00 1,325.3 %
20 JAN 08 70.00 WFR CALL (WFRAN) SO $ 400.00 1/15/2008 $ 5,990.00   3
$ 5,590.00 93.3 %
This has been a favorite for 2 years but you have to day trade the short calls to make real money otherwise you are just buying an ulcer.  I really like the ’10 $60s at $22.50.  You can sell 1/2 the Feb $65s for $6 but I’m waiting for them to get back and test $68 before I sell. 
$ 40,180.00 1,334.9 %
WMT
20 JAN 09 45.00 WMT CALL (VWTAI) LO $ 7,910.00 8/28/2007 $ 13,600.00   143
$ 5,690.00 71.9 %
20 FEB 08 47.50 WMT CALL (WMTBW) SO $ 3,200.00 1/15/2008 $ 2,690.00   3
$ -510.00 -19.0 %
It’s like betting on the turtle.  You know he’s going to win the race but it’s sooooo boring!  In a depression, they will be MORE crowded.  The ’10 $45s for $9.10 allow for 10% annual growth – hard to lose if you do nothing but then you can sell Feb $50s for .50, that’s 5% a month 5% out of the money! 
$ 5,180.00 46.6 %
Total Gain/Loss
$ 91,095.00 14.8 %

 

 

 

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