Archive for
March 11th, 2008
by Phil - March 11th, 2008 11:55 pm
Whee – what a day!
That was just way too much fun but it’s still not a clear victory until we get a little follow-through so I will save my victory speech for tomorrow. As Winston Churchill once said: "Everyone has his day, and some days last longer than others." Today was certainly a day for the bulls and I predicted this afternoon that it would last through tomorrow based on the fact that the Europeans were not buying our rally in the morning and will be forced to come in and play catch-up tomorrow.
Also apropos to Mr. Churchill (a personal hero of mine) is his quote that relates so well to the hyena attacks that took this market down to ridiculous levels of late: "A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. " The market has been moved by rumors for weeks and what really surprised me is how little people understand the stocks they invest in.
I said to members on Monday: "Was everybody crazy in October or is everybody crazy now?" as we have THOUSANDS of companies who have dropped 30-50% from their highs in the space of just 3 months. This has come without any significant changes in guidance based solely on assumptions that I pointed out a while ago, were NOT shared by 97% of the CEOs surveyed. As a business consultant, I look at companies from the inside, as companies, not as lottery tickets that spit out winning or losing stock bets. I’ve never seen fundamentals being given less credence than I have in this downturn where even a company like BG, who couldn’t possibly have a more positive story in a more positive sector, has been chopped down 40% in 40 days.
TlsVet pointed out this evening that SIGM has gotten ridiculously cheap and I couldn’t agree more. They have earning tomorrow, I think in the afternoon so we’re going to go with the Jan $30s at $6.40 and risk it ahead of earning. The company is down 65% from it’s January high and has a forward p/e of 10! Sales growth should be along the 200% line while earnings should be roughly triple last year’s and the company makes their money selling media processors for IP video as well as HD TV and digital media players – pretty much the only bright spot…

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by Option Review - March 11th, 2008 11:34 am
Today’s tickers: S, USO, SDS, XLF, WM, BAC, C, VIX, HUM, CVH, WLP, AET, UNH
S – While most of the rest of the market bathed in a bullish lather today, a concoction of very bearish factors came to a froth in wireless telecom Sprint. The troubles began with an analyst downgrade that came after closer examination of Sprint’s latest 10-K filing, which concluded that the company faces a possible increase in wireless acquisition costs and handset subsidies. Add to that the company’s ongoing embroilment in a price war with other U.S. mobile carriers and a presentation tomorrow at a Bear Stearns industry event tomorrow, and you can color traders spooked. Today’s near-10% decline to $6.07 has put its shares at a 20-year low. The upshot was an immediate 25% increase in implied volatility to more than 90% – making Sprint one of the day’s top volatility gainers and showing about 30% more price risk to Sprint shares over the next month than they have shown historically. What interested us most of all however was the fact that option volume in Sprint scarcely bears the mark of “disaster preparedness” that one might expect from such a catastrophic drop in its share price. Instead, traders took the opportunity afforded by lower call-side premiums to buy calls at strikes of 6 and 7 for as little as 15 cents apiece – a cheap bet that all may not be lost for the most battered and beleaguered of the wireless carriers. Elsewhere, we saw directionally neutral but long volatility trades in play at the April 6.00 line, where the $1.05 cost of the straddle combination would protect the buyer in the event of a decline below $4.95 or back above $7.05. And it looks like one trader profited handsomely from the closeout of a put position at the May 7.00 line that was entered yesterday for 95 cents. With the value of puts swelling on back of today’s share price action, the 10,000-lot position was closed out today for $1.38 – yielding a 45% profit margin in the space of a day.
USO – After five successive sessions of record highs for crude oil, futures pulled back slightly on today’s Fed liquidity action. Still, it’s hard to imagine the end of the road for energy stocks, which is why we were so fascinated with today’s spike in put volume in the United…

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by Phil - March 11th, 2008 8:45 am
Woo-Eee! The Fed rides in to save the day!
The Fed has, (as predicted by me, but who listens to me anyway) has announced a coordinated effort with foreign CBs to inject $200Bn in additional liquidity into the markets in the form of increased reciprocal currency swaps and extended overnight lending rates to effectively 28-day lending rates – something they are calling "Term Securities Lending Facility." Call it what you want, it’s FREE MONEY!
I am so relieved! I got very nervous yesterday when TXN warned after hours as I went out on a very long limb at 2:30 when I said to members: "I’m taking out my callers right now (the ones I am up more than 50% on) and looking to roll down here so this will be the last time before I give up and it will cost me a lot if I’m wrong about this but I’m just not seeing a rationale to how oil can be at $108 if the economy is so awful or how can the economy be so awful if oil is at $108 (and Elliot Spitzer can afford $5,000 hookers)?"
While our Governor may be playing with hookers it’s pimp-daddy Bernanke who’s shaking his money maker for the financials (and we just bought XLF calls yesterday too!). This is so great and the Dow is up over 200 points pre-market. Is it wise? Is it just? No – but it sure is fun while it lasts.
The bad news is this will punch oil through the $110 mark but I talked about my concerns there in yesterday’s wrap-up but today is party day and we’re going to ignore the fact that our trade deficit got worse and I will take a moment to point out right now the the new and horribly disfigured Rupert Murdoch’s Journal, at 8:50 pm, with the Dow up 221 points and 20 minutes after the Fed announcement has the following headlines on their on-line front page:
New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer apologized to the public and to his family, but didn’t directly address reports that he has been involved in a prostitution ring. Spitzer has been identified as one of the ring’s clients cited in
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February 8th, 2012 1:43 pm
Bernanke Talks His Book
By Bruce Krasting
Bernanke’s testimony to the House last week and to the Senate yesterday held no surprises. Ben has promised to maintain monetary policy at DEFCON 4 levels for as far into the future as we can see.
The prepared remarks were identical for both presentations. I reviewed Bernanke's 10/4/2011 testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee (Link). There is something missing in the 2012 reports to Congress that was included in Ben's statement just a few months ago. Here’s what he said in October 2011 about inflation:
Longer-term inflation expectations hav...
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February 8th, 2012 1:40 pm
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February 8th, 2012 1:37 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Not like it is news, but... Out of one pocket, into another, and in the mean time "things get better" as Gross explains below. That said, we hope Bill knows where Allianz of A&G fame (which just happens to be the closest comp to our own AIG) falls in the pecking order of the European house of cards.
...
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February 8th, 2012 10:35 am
Courtesy of Doug Short.
About 4 1/2 months have passed since the latest Federal Reserve intervention, Operation Twist, was officially announced on September 21. We've now seen several bouts of aggressive Fed attempts to manage the economy following the collapse of the two Bear Stearns hedge funds in mid-2007 about three month before the all-time high in the S&P 500.
Initially the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) underwent a series of cuts, and with the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, the Fed launched a veritable alphabet soup of tactical strategies intended to stave off economic disaster: PDCF, TALF, TARP, etc. But shortly after the bankruptcy filing, the Fed really swung into high gear. The FFR fell off a cliff and soon bounced in the lower half of the 0 to 0.25% ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy). The thud to the FFR bottom coincided with the first of two rounds of quantitative ea...
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February 8th, 2012 10:00 am
Courtesy of Benzinga.
South Korea's opposition leader threatened that if her party wins the race for president, it will scrap the free trade agreement between South Korea and the United States.
Democratic United Party (DUP) chairwoman Han Myeong-sook said that unless the current government revises certain clauses in the free trade agreement, her party would be forced to repeal the entire free trade agreement if it wins the next election. The DUP also sent letters to United States President Barrack Obama and other leading American politicians requesting that they look into the matter.
The opposition says that one of the clauses in question, which Han Myeong-sook called "poisonous", would allow American companies to circumvent South Korean courts a...
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February 8th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
CMISTRONGBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Cummins, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
CAIBUYCACI is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
ANBUYProjected value continues to rise for AutoNation while long term increases in earnings growth are also becomin...
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February 7th, 2012 7:05 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Major Indexes and Index ETFs rose today on “Greek” hopes and European solution.
Major indexes cheered in hope today for a possible Greek solution as the S&P 500 rose .2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added .26%, the NASDAQ Composite scored a .07% increase, while the Russell 2000 Index dropped -.12%. Major index ETFs of course followed along as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) increased .25%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) rose .3%, the PowerShares QQQ Fund Series 1 E...
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February 7th, 2012 3:58 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
It finally looked like some sort of selloff may occur this morning but ONCE AGAIN the "buy the dip" crowd was rewarded. At these levels of overbought I am now officially falling into the shocked camp that the same ploy can work day after day without fail. I can't remember the last time the buy the dip crowd was punished. Generally the market does not reward the same behavior this often.
As the market goes higher and higher into the ether, generally you want to tighten stop losses so you don't get caught red handed on a reversal but this morning's selloff was just deep enough to capture some of those…. which of course after the ...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
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February 3rd, 2012 1:42 pm
Today’s tickers: F, GM, MAS & GILD
Options commentary to resume on Thursday February 9th.
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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