Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Swing trading virtual portfolio – Week of August 3rd 2009

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. Optrader

     

    Netflix announces agreement with Disney to stream some series
    Netflix (NFLX) announced an agreement with Disney-ABC Television Group (DIS) that will make several of ABC’s most popular TV series available to be streamed instantly from Netflix.

  2. Optrader

     

    Priceline.com upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark Co.
    Benchmark Co. upgraded Priceline.com on expectations the company’s Q2 results could top expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $147 from $115.

  3. Optrader

     

    Monsanto target raised to $98 from $87 at Jefferies
    Jefferies believes SmartStax is on track for a 2010 launch after Monsanto (MON) and Dow (DOW) announced import approval for SmartStax corn in Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The firm raised its target on Monsanto and keeps a Buy rating on shares

  4. Optrader

     

    This summer movie goers pull back, WSJ reports
    It’s the summertime blues for moviegoers as box office sales continue to slow, reports the Wall Street Journal. Tickets sales, revenue and attendance this summer are all lower when compared to last summer. It’s also true that blockbusters are also slumping this time around. "It’s been a seesaw all summer," says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the Hollywood.com Box Office division. "In the spring, I thought we were going to have a record-breaking summer, but now, short of a miracle, I don’t see how we could beat last summer’s attendance."

  5. Optrader

     

    Apple tries to "gag" owner of exploding iPod, UK Times reports
    The UK Times has learned that Apple (AAPL) attempted to silence a father and daughter with a gagging order after the child’s iPod music player exploded and the family sought a refund from the company. The Times has learnt that the company would offer the family a full refund only if they were willing to sign a settlement form. The proposed agreement left them open to legal action if they ever disclosed the terms of the settlement. Last week it emerged that Apple had tried to keep a number of cases where its iPod digital music players had started to smoke, burst into flames and even burned their owners, out of the public eye. Recall that in 2006, Apple and Dell (DELL) recalled mil lions of lithium ion batteries because of overheating problems in laptop computers causing fires — some of the biggest consumer electronics recalls in histor

  6. Optrader

     

    YouTube looks to become force in the news business, NY Times reports
    Google’s (GOOG) YouTube is looking to become a big force in the news business. The company has created a new feature called News Near You that "senses" a user’s location and serves up relevant videos. YouTube, which says it is helping TV stations and other partners, is already distributing hometown video from dozens of sources and is looking to add thousands more. The site is already promoting videos from Reuters, The Associated Press and ABC News. 

  7. english

     Looks like the futures traders had it spot on this time .  1st of the month ramp job

  8. Optrader

     

    Netflix to extend TV Everywhere strategy to more devices, Multichannel says
    Netflix (NFLX), in an effort to extend its "TV Everywhere" strategy to more devices, will reportedly soon offer the Watch Instantly video-streaming feature on the Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii console as well as on Apple (AAPL) iPod touch devices and iPhones. The streaming-video feature will likely be restricted to access over local Wi-Fi connections only

  9. Optrader

     EBay shares could rally another 30% as sales, profits grow again, Barron’s says

  10. albo

    Buckle your seat belts, it could be a wild ride today !      Selling partial calls against several
    long positions in LTP.

  11. Optrader

     I sold 1/3 of the FHCO I bought on Friday.

  12. english

     HPQ looks tired

  13. Optrader

     /OS sold last 1/3 HPQ calls.

  14. english

     Don’t look, but……

  15. Optrader

     I know…

  16. english

     Ugly candle in DLTR

  17. english

     Really don’t look now…

  18. Optrader

    Bounced twice exactly on R1

  19. english

     I think we have to trade over 1000 at some point today or this week

  20. albo

    Could be interesting at 1000.  Profit taking or buying rush?

  21. english

     I would think they will try to make 1000 support, then they can raise there year end targets to 1200

  22. english

     These TCK type stocks look like blow off tops.  This is just crazy

  23. yadnum

    Dollar is breaking down below support.

  24. Bees

    opt I have a question regarding memebership, I only read your side and never goto phil’swould you tell me what service should i subscribe ? my current memebership the basic one cost me 149+

  25. Optrader

     FHCO up 10% :-)

  26. yadnum

    EUR/JPY/ breaking out  of resistance
    (yen carry trade)

  27. Optrader

     Bees, send me an email

  28. albo

    Here we are at 1000 !
    Covered some TCK – thanks for the reminder, english.

  29. english

     OK, if AMZN trades 94 in an hour, this has to be a top.  Although I believe we will steam ahead as the fed is buying equities hard

  30. Optrader

     2000 on NASDAQ as well

  31. english

     Nice trade ALBO

  32. english

     Guys in the pits looking for a big surge if we get over these hurdles here with some volume.  I am sure there have to be a lot of buy stops hitting up here

  33. Optrader

     /OS sold last 1/3 FDO calls

  34. english

     Dollar getting nuked again.  

  35. Optrader

     STV-Good looking chart

  36. Optrader

     BX breaking up

  37. english

     DOW looks good..  We need something long

  38. Optrader

     FHCO broke $7. New all time high.

  39. english

     That NTES daily chart is absurd.  Everything looks like the dot com bubble

  40. stoptrvl

    Financials looking good on the long side.  CHK and XTO look goog too.  Thoughts?

  41. Optrader

     Agreed on financials. Nice breakup on XLF. 

  42. Optrader

     Same on CHK and XTO (same kind of charts).

  43. english

     All those call buyers in OSK the other day are sitting pretty.  They keep getting bigger here

  44. english

     Call buyers rushing into BX now

  45. stoptrvl

    ISRG keeps going…

  46. english

     here come the big put buyers in GDX.  What is everyone doing….sleeping I guess.  

  47. english

     We have to play guess the open to make money here….. any one have an idea on tomorrows open?

  48. Optrader

     Just watching, English. Not much to do, but find a call by close. Probably in materials or financials.

  49. Optrader

     EUR/USD has been fighting around R2

  50. english

     JBL looks bullish and a lot of call buying going on in September at the 10 strike

  51. stoptrvl

    If we do not sell off before the close I think we pop at the open tomorrow and then they use that to try and hold 1000.  I will probably add something financial at close.  Maybe just make it easy and buy XLF…or BX.  CHK reports after hours so I might avoid that space until after.  ANF is the one I do not know what I will do with.   My position is kind of big so I think I at least have to reduce

  52. albo

    AKS – Trying to break to the upside.

  53. albo

    AZO – Eddie must be on vacation.

  54. english

     That ANF trend is beautiful

  55. Optrader

     Well, pick a chart, and you’ll get pretty much the same trend, including indices…

  56. Optrader

     Look a the Q’s. Not one close below 5MA since July 10th…

  57. english

    I know.  Amazing.  looks so easy in hind sight, but getting on the right side and hanging tough is much harder

  58. asen_b

    I sold almost all my HANS calls into this strenght. Kept some to sell tomorrow at the open. Just bought some BA calls JAN 10. Seems that BA is starting some upward moving.

  59. Optrader

     Eur/USD testing $1.44 support again.

  60. Lance

    Optrader:
     
    Unfortunately, I own some puts here.
    I feel just like Last September, only in reverse ; lol
    I need to watch the 5 ma better.
     
    BTW did you ever cover your day trading approach using ES ; thx??

  61. Optrader

     ES-Yes, I wrote a post about it. Let me find it and I’ll post it. Don’t feel too bad about the puts, I have been in the same situation as well lately, a little bit too bearish. This is why I am keeping my positions to a minimum right now, not trading much.

  62. asen_b

    Has someone got opinion about GENZ ? Seams it is hit too hard I thing for no reason …I take some debit call spreads 47,50 / 50 – both for Aug and Sept. A good risk/reward

  63. Optrader

     LAZ-Ugly candle

  64. Optrader

     GENZ-That is not a very good looking chart. I would rather wait for it to turn first.

  65. Optrader

     ATVI-Not a very good candle either. I am hearing that sales of "Guitar Hero" have been dropping significantly, much more than anticipated.

  66. stoptrvl

    GENZ -  FDA problems and Shire just got FDA approval for competing drug.  Not good for GENZ business at all.  I consult for pharma/biotech companies and from what I read it does not sound good or like a simple problem.  With that being said it is biotech so it could just as easily reverse.

  67. Optrader

     FCN-What about this candle?

  68. stoptrvl

    GENZ -  FDA problems and Shire just got FDA approval for competing drug.  Not good for GENZ business at all.  I consult for pharma/biotech companies and from what I read it does not sound good or like a simple problem.  With that being said it is biotech so it could just as easily reverse.

  69. english

     people piling into TXT calls here

  70. Optrader

     ONTY-Great chart

  71. Optrader

     /OB buying 1/2 position KSS calls before close.

  72. sgrundahl

     Opt, what vertical are you considering for KSS

  73. asen_b

    GENZ was punished first on Friday over the news that the FDA will inspect their closed facility after GENZ has declared they fixed it. So, quite normal they will get inspection. All product of GENZ are under strong demand. One of the rare cases that their is demand for something and not enough supply of the same.  Competition is actually far behind. But it is not to say that GENZ easily would not go 5-6 % lower, just 50 seems as a good support.

  74. Optrader

     KSS-Just getting the straight 50′s. I don’t like it that much, but need some calls, and seems like a good balance for our last 1/3 ANF

  75. stoptrvl

    GENZ – I disagree that it is quite normal to get reinspected.  This is not a new facility so responses to the warning letter should be accepted in writing if they are satisfactory.   Even GENZ has said it was unexpected.  I have worked for clients who had killed people with their product and had been recalled and the FDA never inspected one of the plants and accepted their responses in writing.  I agree their products are under demand and do not follow the fundamentals so I can not speak to that but in my opinion I think the fact that the FDA is coming back suggests something has not been resolved or at the very least adds more risk.

  76. albo

    Opt – Have been reviewing my trading results.  Very good year so far, largely due to LTP positions
    in stock and leaps taken last fall.  Am getting a little better at staying in trades somewhat longer than
    before; still too quick, but improving.  Have gotten a lot better at taking losses.  I now put in hard stops,
    once I’m down to 1/3 position.  Keeps me from spending too much time on small positions and keeps
    me from giving back profits or extending losses. i.e., RIMM & AGU.
     I know you don’t like hard stops, but might make some sense for last 1/3.  Just a thought.

  77. Optrader

     Albo, yes, we should consider having hard stops on last 1/3 (especially when on vacation). I have no idea why I still have a small position of AGU. I think it went up a lot when I was in a plane, I should have sold at that time, and then just been waiting for a pullback that never comes. For RIMM, I booked some good profit on the first 2/3′s, it has been weak even in a strong market, and we made money on HPQ calls in the menatime, so I am not really upset about it.

    I am glad you are doing well overall!!

  78. english

     sold 1/3 KSS

  79. Optrader

     ONTY up another 6%

  80. Optrader

     Those KSS are burning your hands, aren’t they?

  81. english

     You bet

  82. english

     How are sitting in AZO here?

  83. ken88

    RIMM showing some strength today even after GS says that iphone is gaining traction for business use. Any thoughts on RIMM.

  84. Optrader

     AZO-I have not done anything yet. Still some premium in the 150′s, and I feel like I need the protection in case it jumps again from here.

  85. Lance

    Opt:  ever find your daytrading notes?

  86. english

     People piling into CAT calls here

  87. stoptrvl

    Lance…if you go to this link and register there is a file a member had put together based on comments from this site for trading ES
    http://www.box.net/files#0:f:23731080/Optrader

  88. stoptrvl

    AN not looking good

  89. Optrader

     Lance, 

    I have copied below the link with the example on how we daytrade ES. The book that Ryan made is available on the link that stop just posted. Let me know if you can access it. If not, just send me an email.

    Here is the link: http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/04/23/daytrading-e-mini-futures/#comments

    And don’t hesitate to ask questions.

  90. Optrader

     ONTY up 10%. I kind of like those last hour picks I have been finding lately, both FHCO and ONTY were up 10% the day after.

    I have sold another 1/3 of FHCO by the way.

  91. albo

    Guys – Take a look at GGC.  Good candidate for a spread going into earnings tonight?

  92. Optrader

     GGC-fist time I hear about them…do you follow them?

  93. ken88

     Anybody follow GMCR. They seem like one of those fad stocks ready to collapse.

  94. albo

    I haven’t followed, but saw where they re-structured a lot of their debt.   Seems to me
    that they could move big on earnings release and conference call.  No idea in which
    direction.  Wild chart !

  95. albo

    Oops, no options on GGC.  Forget it.   

  96. english

     phil seems to think this market is very undervalued with retail sales only down 5.4% YOY.  Did I read this right?

  97. albo

    AKS and MDT looking good.

  98. Optrader

     GMCR-The valuation is very expensive, I agree, but growth is very strong. Apparently those brewers are very good, fast, easy to clean. 

    In general, I like to stay away from shorting momemtum stocks with good fundamentals. They rarely drop fast, at least not until there are some bad news out. I have been on the other side of the trade, on WFMI and TASR for example, and I could not believe that people kept shorting them.

    I don’t mind shorting overvalued momemtum stocks, but it has to have poor fundamentals, like AZO. Now, if you like the trade, and you set your stop correctly, there is nothing wrong with it. 

  99. Optrader

     GMCR-By the way, the Nespresso, which is what the Green Mountain copied, is huge in France/Europe. Very convenient brewers and huge margins on the single doses. They just adapted it to make american coffee.

  100. Optrader

     English, do you have a scan that looks at unusual volume in options? Seems like you have been looking at those lately.

  101. ken88

    albo, opt,  Thanks for the input on GMCR. Makes good sense. Will just watch for now.

  102. yadnum

    Opt
    Do you use a spreadsheet  with ranges to track and search  for opportunities in fundamentals? Could you share a little on how you mine for good trades based on fundamentals?

  103. Optrader

     Why is RIMM so strong this morning?

  104. Optrader

     Rumors that Google might buy them?

  105. english

     I have a friend who uses the option monster software to show purchases on the offer for at least 2 x the open interest.  We rap via IM on trades all day.  He trades these and does very well.  I just pass along that data.  RIMM is breaking out nicely here over that previous high on nice volume

  106. Optrader

     Yadnum, nothing special. Every night and morning (before opening), I read news, blogs, etc. like everyone else. In fact I am not looking too much at fundamentals. But I have some strong experience in business (I owned and was the CEO of many companies before trading), and I like tech and biotech, so I just keep myself informed.

  107. Optrader

     English, that’s great, thanks for sharing. Could be very interesting when the chart follows.

  108. english

     I think RIMM has just lagged and has been in a bull flag.  With all these funds chasing the market they are looking for what has not yet run and taking it to new highs.  Momentum begets more momentum, etc.  GOOG buying RIMM does not make any sense to me, even if they got kicked off the AAPL board

  109. Optrader

     ONTY up 16%

  110. english

     Yah, I just use it as one more piece of information.  If we need a bullish chart and find one with someone else who just placed a short term $4,000,000 bet on a quick rise, it can’t hurt.  I know you did not like them because people could be hedging or whatever.  But even a sudden hedge of these sizes done on the offer are bullish or bearish.  It really just simulates the old edge the option traders had on the floor, seeing large paper making bets fast

  111. albo

    Opt – I don’t believe GOOG could buy RIMM because of anti-trust issues, but there is speculation
    as a result of Eric Schmidt’s resignation from AAPL’s board.

  112. Optrader

     I still don’t like them exactly for the reasons you mentioned: it could be anything, even if it is on the offer. It is extremelly rare that big traders place those kind of bets with naked options. 99% of the time it is just part of a spread, a way to cover a short/long etc. And there is always a big seller on the other side: even if it happens at the offer, most of the time when you have big size, it is pre-arranged and it does not mean that it is bullish because it is on the offer.

    That being said, apparently the ones you have been posting lately worked pretty good.

  113. Optrader

     Albo, yes I don’t believe it either. They have been talks that Schmidt would resign for a long time now, and it has nothing to do with RIMM, more about the Gphone. But unfortunately that does not help with our chart…

  114. Optrader

     That’s some serious volatility squeeze on EUR/USD

  115. Lance

    Stoptrvl ; I had problems getting the "book" on daytrading the es at box.net ? any way you could email me at
    I registered but it still wouldn’t grant access?
    lance"@"dashover.com  thx

  116. yadnum

    Thanks Opt
    Your LT picks based on fundies have been great high prob plays.  Do you have a thought on where the SPX should be based on fundies ?

  117. Optrader

     Lance, I emailed it to you

  118. Optrader

     SPX-I sincerely have no idea. For indices I truly believe in following the charts/trends. It is my opinion that anything else is a waste of time. All those discussions on CNBC all day long, from experts who think they know where the market is going are useless. There is no way to know if the market is overvalued or undervalued, it is just where it is. Just follow it, don;t try to guess where it is going. Look at the trends lately and how the 5MA worked perfectly, why would we need anything else?

  119. english

     BAC looks great

  120. albo

    So does BB&T, moving above 200MA.

  121. stoptrvl

    Should have bought a bigger position in XLF yesterday.  Think this is rotation or is there a reason for financial strength the last few days?

  122. Optrader

     Builders strong as well. Look at that SRS’s chart! 

  123. english

     Banks are too big to fail.  the government has given them $500 billion to leverage to 10:1 in the equity markets to try to get the consumer to max out the credit cards again.  So this could definitely continue for a while.  I would just watch consumer credit data.  It is already 350% of GDP.  It has to climb higher to get the consumer back in the pool, otherwise the government will run out of money at some point to buy equities.  Like Opt. said, just follow the charts until they break then get short.  I like that play

  124. english

     AES call buying. The AUG 15′s.  These would really need a big move to perform

  125. english

     A lot of volume buying crox common ahead of earnings.  Probably short covering, but I think this company makes a comeback at some point

  126. english

     Deadliest catch marathon on…..I love this show

  127. Optrader

     AES-That’s a nice breakup on the chart.

  128. Optrader

    Those kind of breaks makes me think of Darvas’ boxes

  129. Optrader

     For anyone who has not read it: Darvas

    It is a very fun book. And I like his strategy, which is pretty much another example of following the trend.

  130. Optrader

     I am getting good at posting those links…

  131. english

     Had to look that one up

  132. english

     CRM testing recent top

  133. Marek

    UAUA reported load factors this morning – up 19%

  134. english

     Those are nice charts in the airlines

  135. Optrader

     TOL strongly breaking upward.

  136. albo

    AKS – Sold 1/3.

  137. Optrader

    Crazy move in IYR of course as well. 

  138. english

     Steel names about to break out of weekly charts

  139. english

     Could be hard for DLTR to move much higher in this environment

  140. english

     Nice big bear wipeout candle in ARO

  141. Optrader

     /OS sold 1/3 KSS calls

  142. Bees

    opt and english please have a look at hrp is really nice…

  143. english

     Yah, real estate stuff has been moving.  Just hard to buy into the nonsense.

  144. Bees

    english is there any good put ?

  145. english

     I am short AMZN, FCX, WSM, ANF, AZO

  146. english

     If ARO can break the 50 that looks good to.  I don’t like retail here, regardless of what the market says.  Just wait for a candle and pounce, all you can do.  I will keep looking

  147. Bees

    thanksl

  148. english

     Volume low today, so they should have no problem running this market through the close

  149. bclb

    can we get a LOD run?  Thanks

  150. english

     ~LOD6

  151. Knotam

    AAPL LOD = 164.33…Last = 164.84
    AEO LOD = 13.98…Last = 14.04
    AMZN LOD = 85.02…Last = 85.2
    ATK LOD = 79.17…Last = 79.24
    AZO LOD = 148.03…Last = 148.37
    CNW LOD = 45.45…Last = 45.55
    COH LOD = 29.11…Last = 29.16
    CSCO LOD = 22.22…Last = 22.27
    CVX LOD = 69.64…Last = 69.85
    DEO LOD = 62.44…Last = 62.79
    DRIV LOD = 35.11…Last = 35.23
    FCX LOD = 62.97…Last = 62.98
    GILD LOD = 47.54…Last = 47.56
    GOOG LOD = 448.43…Last = 450.92
    GRMN LOD = 27.27…Last = 27.4
    HPQ LOD = 43…Last = 43.2
    IBM LOD = 119.02…Last = 119.22
    INTC LOD = 19.15…Last = 19.23
    JNJ LOD = 60.67…Last = 60.8
    K LOD = 46.5…Last = 46.59
    KO LOD = 49.35…Last = 49.47
    MCD LOD = 54.91…Last = 54.99
    MSFT LOD = 23.53…Last = 23.62
    MW LOD = 21.4…Last = 21.5
    ORLY LOD = 38.86…Last = 38.99
    PALM LOD = 15.21…Last = 15.28
    PBR LOD = 42.71…Last = 42.77
    PCG LOD = 40.28…Last = 40.43
    PCLN LOD = 129.4374…Last = 130.02
    PM LOD = 46.55…Last = 46.77
    QCOM LOD = 46…Last = 46.06
    ROST LOD = 42.15…Last = 42.27
    SGP LOD = 26.3…Last = 26.44
    SJM LOD = 49.52…Last = 49.67
    SO LOD = 31.09…Last = 31.26
    SPY LOD = 99.78…Last = 100.35
    STM LOD = 7.81…Last = 7.85
    T LOD = 26.02…Last = 26.16
    UTX LOD = 54.52…Last = 54.59
    VCLK LOD = 11.48…Last = 11.5
    WMT LOD = 49.5…Last = 49.79
    ZMH LOD = 46.24…Last = 46.45

  152. arindamc

    English, any longs you are in?

  153. english

     Long DOW, JBL, KSS, X, DNDN, BAC

  154. Optrader

     PDLI-Good chart

  155. bclb

    vz looking weak

  156. english

     DLTR sitting on a little support. I don’t think it holds

  157. Optrader

     ONTY -8%. You have to be very fast with those 

  158. sgrundahl

     Opt, any new trades into close??

  159. Optrader

    No new trades, no. 

  160. Optrader

     That was a pretty good day, with AMZN, ANF, AZO etc. down even with market running…

  161. english

    i will be even more impressed if they don’t reverse them all on us tomorrow.

  162. Optrader

     WFMI up big

  163. tradansh

    Opt – trying to access the box.net link posted above by stop for the book on /ES trading but getting a "You do not have access" error. How do I get access to this book?

  164. albo

    GRMN up strongly !

  165. Optrader

     

    Simon Property downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    Oppenheimer downgraded Simon Property on valuation.

  166. Optrader

     tradansh, did you try registering to box.net first? If it does not work, send me an email to emmad19@gmail.com.

  167. Optrader

     

    Research in Motion initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna
    Target $94

  168. Optrader

     

    Research in Motion estimates raised at Oppenheimer
    After conducting channel checks, Oppenheimer increased its estimates on Research In Motion and sees several positive catalysts ahead. The firm’s checks indicate strong demand for the Tour and Curve, as well as stabilizing enterprise demand and solid international demand. The firm maintains an Outperform rating.

  169. Optrader

     Now we know why RIMM was strong yesterday

  170. Optrader

     

    Sony to launch e-book reader that is smaller, cheaper than Kindle, AP reports
    Sony (SNE) plans to unveil an e-book reader by the end of this month that is smaller than Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Kindle, and will cost $100 less than Amazon’s device, according to the Associated Press

  171. Optrader

     Looks like it is going to be time to roll our AZO’s vertical lower. Probably to 155/145

  172. english

     Sold 1/3 DOW 
    Sold 1/3 X

  173. stoptrvl

    POT looking interesting it if doenst get rejected off the 50

  174. Knotam

    Was thinking of shorting WFT and LVS this morning with stops at 20.25 and 12.00 respectively. ANy comments on this trade good or bad?

  175. Optrader

     Amazing how the market has been following the dollar since the beginning of the week.

  176. Optrader

     EUR/USD testing S1

  177. english

     DLTR failing right on schedule

  178. Optrader

     AZO-I got a mix of 145′s and 140′s short in fact.

  179. Optrader

     AMZN testing the 50MA again.

  180. english

     AZO does not like cash for clunkers as the government destroys all the old cars that the AZO thesis relies on

  181. Optrader

     Yes, this might be the catalyst that destroys Eddie’s pyramid. 

  182. Optrader

     /OS sold another 1/3 KSS calls

  183. ken88

     opt I still had those akam calls. sold half this morn for a nice gain. thanks. feels good to make some money after the  negative last week.

  184. english

     ADY and MAC looking bullish.  ADY in the gap

  185. english

     ken88- nice trade.  I sold the last of mine yesterday.  I need to be more patient with the 5MA for sure

  186. Optrader

     Well done, ken88!

  187. english

     What is with ANF?

  188. Optrader

     /OS sold last 1/3 KSS calls.

  189. english

     Big bear candle in BNI

  190. Optrader

     The strength in AAPL is amazing

  191. english

     Strength in everything is amazing

  192. english

     This would be a good place for them to ramp the S&P back up

  193. english

     HPQ looks ripe for a fall

  194. kaushiksbk

     optrader…… i am new to this site, when you say /OS sold last KSS calls, you are selling already bought calls ? 

  195. Optrader

     UTHR very strong, looks like it might break upward.

  196. english

     A lot of put buying now in CCL

  197. english

     Silly that AIG is ripping

  198. english

    CCL Carnival is down 1.7 percent, trading at 29.02, as it was unable to break up through resistance at 30, which has been in place since early October of last year. The options action is looking for this pullback to continue, as we have a bearish put spread hitting, with one trader buying 5000 of the September 28 puts for 1.55 and selling the same number of the 24 puts at the same time for .45. This spread, with a net debit of 1.10, will make a maximum profit of 2.90 if CCL is below 24 at expiration. The action is more than 10 times open interest at both strikes, indicating new opening positions. If you want to play along, that spread is now at 1.05. 

  199. Optrader

     kaushiksbk, first, welcome to the site! Yes that’s what it is.  /OB means "bought" and /OS means "sold". This way if you search for /O, you will be able to find all trades. We never sell naked options, and all trades are posted above in the portfolio, so you can see the KSS calls there.

    Let me know if you have other questions.

  200. english

     I just want to short all these stocks that are rallying 20% on crap earnings.  Like SAM

  201. english

     HUN is strong

  202. Optrader

     ATVI-Ugly candle. I am getting very anxious to short this one.

  203. Optrader

     And REITS/builders keep going up.

  204. english

     the lower the volume the higher everything goes

  205. english

     I like the ATVI short with what they did to ERTS.  We need to find a good long to go along.  Maybe BAC, it seems as BAC goes the S&P goes

  206. albo

    BX – Strong again !

  207. english

     Bought some BAC back. Get me some of the momo.

  208. english

     yah, sold the last 1/3 of my BX yesterday.  I need to just turn my brain off, dispense all sense of reality and just stick to the charts.  The charts say buy and some meatball was on CNBC a half hour ago sticking to his call of DOW 14000 by next summer.  All that matters is the chart until you wake up to find them all wiped out.  I think giving California to the Chinese in exchange for debt forgiveness after we sell them $2 trillion in more bonds  may be the catalyst for DOW 14000

  209. english

     Bought some FSLR against the 200 with a wide stop 140

  210. Optrader

    BAC-Wow, you are courageous here LOL. I like it, though, going with the trend.

  211. Optrader

     I know I said it earlier, but I have not seen the market so dependent to the dollar in a very long time.

  212. english

     I think we get a spike to 20.  Just join the government buyng

  213. brianma

    So far, AAPL putting in a reversal bar on daily

  214. english

     sold 1/3 BAC

  215. Optrader

     AAPL-Agreed. It is testing the 5MA as well.

  216. english

    SYNA
     
    Synaptics Incorporated develops and supplies interface solutions that enable people to interact with mobile computing, communications, entertainment, and other electronic devices. The stock was slammed after end July announced lower sales outlook. The stock has hovered near $25 since, but may be ready to attempt to retrace at least some of those losses. The HeatSeeker indicates that the institutional investors may have found more value in SYNA than the stock presently reflects. So far the options have traded well over twice normal levels, and the majority of the trade has been the upside calls. The SYNA Aug 30 calls have been purchased for $.25 on nearly 3 times the previously established positions. The SYNA Sep 32.5 calls have now traded more than 6000 contracts, the bulk were purchased for $.40 and $.45. These SYNA Sep 32.5 calls are now $.45-$.55, but will take a near full recovery of the stock to really outperform. The September may allow to shift down to the SYNA Sep 27.5-32.5 call spread for near $.90, if SYNA can rebound after the massive drop a week or so ago..
     

  217. english

     WLP breaking down

  218. english

     Bought some AIG puts with BAC profits

  219. english

     Big bear candle in GOOG.  Mo money coming out of tech leaders and piling into financials I guess

  220. Optrader

     Agreed. Look at the Q’s chart.

  221. Optrader

     If we close like this, it is a bearish engulfing AND a close below 5MA

  222. Optrader

     CSCO could change everything, but my feeling is that at this point any good news is already priced in.

  223. english

     That is a nasty QQQQ chart. Robbing peter to pay paul going on here

  224. english

    AIG has gone against me 50 cents and my puts are green, crazy.  I just have a few for a dice roll

  225. english

     AIG puts.  $1 against me and I’m down $130, when it was .40c my way I was up $700.  I can’t wait for earnings, there has to be a good play in here

  226. english

     Ok, if AIG gets up 100% on the day I am going to buy a few more puts LOL

  227. Optrader

     AIG-$22.30 is the 50MA

  228. english

     FNM FRE CIT AIG  HHMMmmmm….. I guess fundamentals are really improving at a faster clip than even the market is suggesting.   I am going to put my house up for sale now while the market is red hot.  I think 4x what i paid for it in November sounds about right

  229. english

     The 50MA is nothing more than an imaginary line at this point.  Guys are blowing out left and right.  Take a look at all these

  230. english

     I would love to see the FNM FRE spread come back to the market as a trade.  Spent 10 years trading that and it is a printing press

  231. english

     Sold another 1/3 BAC.  This all can’t end well

  232. english

     Opt. You can buy BRK.B for 3396.99 and sell BRK.A for 103500 here.  That is a 1590.30 credit for each one you do.  haircut relief as they are convertible if you wish to play.  

  233. english

     Nevermind Opt.  I just checked with my buddy at goldman and they are only fungible the other way

  234. Optrader

     too bad…

  235. english

     opt, you have to play in the AIG pool with me….good times to be had on an otherwise boring day

  236. english

     I think we see a big up move in the Q’s after 2 -2:30, what do you think

  237. Optrader

      And now retailers are jumping higher…

  238. Optrader

     I did make a couple trades on AIG ;-) Just the stock though.

  239. Optrader

     IYR getting close to $40. SRS below $12.50…wow…

  240. english

     Yah, KSS just keeps bouncing up and down in the bull flag

  241. english

     So here is the GS market upgrade.  Raising their 2nd half GDP growth from 1% to 3%

  242. contingent

    I’m getting real tired of the strength in retailers.  Where is the money going to come from?  What is going to happen in China when significantly lower Christmas orders are getting placed?

  243. Optrader

     Contingent, I agree. Same store sales are tomorrow, and the strength might indicate that some good numbers may have leaked. 

  244. albo

    Just covered some more GE.  Still my largest holding in LTP.

  245. albo

    Speaking of retailers, I want to buy some puts on SMRT (Steinmart), but the chart’s
    not there yet.  Stock up 11-fold since March ! !

  246. stoptrvl

    NKE really sucked as my ANF hedge today

  247. Optrader

     English, are you still in AKS? Thinking about buying some calls.

  248. Optrader

     Or maybe X..

  249. albo

    Opt – I have 2/3 positon left in AKS.

  250. Optrader

     XLF up 4%. That’s a big move.

  251. english

     Yah, I am in X.  

  252. stoptrvl

    Opt – are you recultant to buy financials and just ride this move up in them even if it is not justified?  Curious to hear your opinion.  You seem to stay away from them for the most part.

  253. english

     I am going to wait for tomorrow then maybe add some steal.  They are right at the top of the range.  If they breakout there will be plenty of time to get in

  254. Optrader

     Yes, I am not really willing to buy the financials, especially here. Gs would probably be the only I could be interested in. But I am not really interested in buying anything really here, except maybe materials…

  255. english

     rolled my remaining AUG 43 X calls out to September and up to the 45′s

  256. english

    PRU Miss?
    PRU has run from $33 to $48 in since July 8th. Tonight’s EPS may be a miss or guidance weak, if the put activity we’re following is right.
    We’d buy the Aug 47 puts (PWQTW) and sell the Aug 44 puts (PWQTF) for a net of $1.20 to have a limited risk downside play on for those earnings. EPS of $1.20 expected. 
     

  257. Optrader

     CYD-Great chart

  258. albo

    Decided to cash in a few more AKS calls.  I’m more comfortable with 
    1/2 position. 

  259. english

     Rolled my DOW calls out and up.  Staying at a .50 on those longs.  Hard to stay in but the trend is the friend

  260. Optrader

     /OB buying some X calls. 1/2 position. Wide stop, small size.

  261. english

     I agree ALBO.  I would roll them up as well to protect profits if your calls are far ITM now.

  262. sgrundahl

     Opt, did you go straight X calls or vertical??

  263. english

     That is what I have been doing OPT.  Wide stops on everything. Get a little action but won’t hurt if a big gap down is in our future.  Maybe reality sets in one day, the exit is going to be packed, I am keeping my ass nudged against the door

  264. Optrader

     I went with the 44/46

  265. Optrader

     Yes, wide stops is the way to go with this volatility.

  266. albo

    Thanks, English.  Good idea !

  267. english

     CSCO breaking out over the 200MA tomorrow will get the Q’s back rolling.  See how the conference call goes and retail sales and we could get a screamer tomorrow

  268. english

    Of course I just say things like this to jinx the market into falling

  269. Optrader

    Thanks, english.  

  270. tradansh

    /Opt – Have been busy today. Didnt get a chance to check your reply earlier. Just sent you an email now.

  271. Optrader

     ANF same store sales dropped 28%. KSS rose 0.4%

  272. english

     Get a little itchy on the trigger finger on the longs

  273. Optrader

     AIG up another 20%

  274. Optrader

     

    Celgene downgradedl at Cowen
    As mentioned earlier, Cowen downgraded Celgene to Underperform from Neutral. The firm cites valuation, potential patent challenges, and concerns regarding Revlimid expectations for the downgrade

  275. english

     Now they will rally ANF off the open based on the fact that they think same store sales can only now increase

  276. Optrader

     I am going to cover my last CELG in LT Portfolio today. It is rare that I am fully covered in this one, but it’s been a very good run..

  277. english

    I thought CELG was just upgraded the other day

  278. Optrader

     

    Apple, Google nearing China smartphone battle, FT says
    Google (GOOG) is poised to indirectly compete with Apple (AAPL) in China, as the country’s largest mobile operator is preparing to launch smartphones based on Google’s Android operating system, according to the Financial Times. China Mobile (CHL) will launch the Android phones, while a smaller Chinese company – China Unicom (CHU) – is close to reaching a deal with Apple to sell the iPhone in China.

  279. Optrader

     

    Goldman won’t admit that it may have failed during crisis, NY Times says
    Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankefein privately says that the investment bank may have been in danger of failing during the credit crisis before the government intervened with the TARP program. However, Goldman and its CEO say publicly that the bank was never in danger of failing. Meanwhile, many believe that a situation has been created in which the too-big-to-fail investment bank has a free insurance policy funded by American taxpayers

  280. Optrader

     

    The CEO and two others bought $4M in Akamai shares, Barron’s reports
    Poor earnings last week spooked Akamai Technologies (AKAM) investors, sending the shares 20% lower. However, three longtime executives at the company have used the weakness to pick up more than $4M in stock. From July 31 through Aug. 3, Executive Chairman George Conrades purchased 126,430 shares for $2.1M, an average of $16.56 a share. Conrade now owns 1.5M shares directly and 60,180 shares through a limited partnership. On July 31, Chief Scientist F. Thomson Leighton purchased 100,000 shares for $1.7M, an average of $16.83 a share. The purchases were made indirectly through a trust, which now owns 3.3M shares. Also on July 31, CEO Paul Sagan purchased 30,000 shares for $502, 500, an average of $16.75 a share. Sagan continues to own 106,189 shares directly and 285,669 shares through trusts. All the insiders own less than 1% of Akamai. The company’s earnings report met with a bevy of downgrades from firms like ThinkEquity, Merriman Curhan Ford and Jefferies & Co. Still, others saw the weakness as a buying opportunity, including Maxim Group analyst Mark Harding, who maintains a Buy rating on the company. Harding wrote in a recent research note, "We remain confident about Akamai’s massively distributed architectural advantage over its competitors for high-definition online video streaming." Lon Juricic, president of StreetInsider.com, sees the insider purchases as a vote of confidence

  281. Optrader

     CELG-It was upgraded indeed, and I am still positive on fundamentals. But the chart has been toppy. I don’t mind being in a fully covered calendar here. Will reconsider.

  282. english

     Of course, ANF is the strongest retailer LOL

  283. Knotam

    Anybody have an idea on any long candidates right now? I’m a bit short in my port…I guess I could buy some SPY’s if I need to.

  284. Optrader

     ANF-Now that’s ridiculous…

  285. Optrader

     ANF

  286. Optrader

     up 6% when sales are down 28%…

  287. english

     Up because of the large short percentage of float.  They are coming after anything with a large short interest

  288. Optrader

    /OS sold 1/3 X calls 

  289. Optrader

     ANF-Its time will come. Like it did for AZO.

  290. Optrader

     EUR/USD dropping, testing S1

  291. Optrader

     Q’s-5MA turning down

  292. Optrader

     SRS looks like it might be printing a hammer. Might be an interesting long if it turns.

  293. Optrader

    Glad we did not short ATVI. I heard yesterday that their new game, DJ hero, is unbelievable. Could be a big hit when people start playing it at parties

  294. english

     Are you all out of X

  295. Optrader

     No, just 1/3. 

  296. Optrader

     Ooopss. I realized I posted "last". But that was the first one. I’ll edit.

  297. english

     thought so, thanks

  298. Optrader

     Q"s look good for puts. If we were not already so bearish…

  299. english

     DD acting well.  So hard to find a long that performs as well as a short that gets smashed

  300. english

    HIG
     
    The Hartford Financial Services Group had been active for multiple days in late July, on the extremely heavy call activity focused in August upside calls. The HeatSeeker lit up with the HIG Aug 14, 15 and 16 calls all active and exceeding the previous open interests of all of those strikes. HIG proceeded to explode higher up and over $16.40  and offered an opportunity to eliminate exposure into the surge of over 35% in just 5 trading days time. Well, now today the buyers have revved up and returned with some aggressive upside call buying, again in August. The shift is now up a few strikes higher and buyers have targeted the HIG Aug 20 calls, as some large institutional blocks hit at $.35 totaling more than 16,000 contracts.The stock jumped on this buying and the HIG Aug 20 calls are now $.40-$.50 as the total options trade on the day is over 46,000 contracts, 35,000 are calls as the stock shoots up to just under $18.
     

  301. sgrundahl

     Opt, I got out of ANF puts a few days ago and are considering getting back in if hits 32+.  What is your thought on reentry at this point?

  302. Optrader

     sgrundahl, I think I would be patient. I have 1/3 left, but don’t know yet what I am going to do with it. Shorts are obviously getting easily squeezed. Let’s see what kind of candle we print today.

  303. sgrundahl

     Noted, thanks Opt!

  304. Optrader

     AAPL testing support.

  305. english

     How about WMT against the 50 here

  306. Optrader

    WMT-why not. Not very exciting, though..

  307. Optrader

     And M up more than 7%?????

  308. english

     M said there next quarter sales would be triple previous estimates or some crap like that

  309. Optrader

     M-Do you have a link? I can’t find it. I see that sales are down more than 10%. They are clearly losing money and non GAAP results should not trick anyone. 

  310. english

     Just someone on CNBC saying why the retail numbers all looked good and cited that M raised their guidance to 3x the previous estimate for next quarter

  311. swellcat

    Are 5MA candle "closes" valid or useful for periods other than days, say, five minute candles intraday or 15 or 30 minute candles over a three day chart?

  312. Optrader

     I think they made $.015 VS the $0.05 estimate. Might be where the 3X comes from. But that’s still only $0.15, or $0.60 annualized, on a $15 stock. And this $0.15 is clearly accounting trick. 

  313. Optrader

     swellcat, yes you can totally use the 5MA on intraday chart. There are sometimes some good trades developing. But you also need to follow it for stops. So most of the time, it does not make sense to do this if you trade options, as trading costs will kill you. But with stocks it is totally valid, or futures…

  314. bclb

    selling 1/3 VZ position, will look for re entry at EOD

  315. CaFords

    WFR looks like a good long, it trades in a fairly good range

  316. bclb

    looks like i got hosed on my AIG long position.  Back in sept 08 I bought the Jan10 5 call for 2.50.   Apparently in the reorg they reissued these positions.  The "old " call is worth .02.  The new ones are now worth 24.00.  Life aint fair

  317. Optrader

     Good one, english :-)

  318. Optrader

     Going for another test of S1, we bounced exactly on it earlier. 

     

  319. Marek

    Hi Opt: I have a question regarding adjusting the position. When I got into ANF (Aug 30/26 Put vertical) the delta was 0.43. Now with this move the delta is approx 0.30 and Aug 26s are $0.20/0.25 so they don’t give too much protection. How would you adjust the position? When I move to the new spread how do I calculate the position size? Do I want to get the same overall delta as I currently have or the original one? Which spread would you roll to?

  320. english

    here is your chance to buy GS 

  321. Marek

    here is article about Macy’s: http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKTRE5753KI20090806

  322. english

     I still think they rip this market back up before the close ahead of the jobs number so they can sell off tomorrow and keep these resistance levels in tact to lighten the selling pressure….wink wink

  323. Optrader

     Marek, there is no hard rule as to if you want to keep the same delta or not. Sometimes I just start from scratch, and recalculate the position, sometimes I increase my delta if I feel better about the position, sometimes I reduce it.

    What is for sure is that the 26′s are not giving you much protection, so yes, you should roll those to a higher strike. At this point I like the 29/27.50. But I would wait until the end of day though. If we print a bearish candle, you might want to increase your delta slightly, get it back aroud 0.4-0.5. If not, you might want to either close everything or keep this position with a lower delta, save on trading costs, and wait until the chart turns to roll.

  324. Marek

    Thank you Opt!

  325. Optrader

     Thanks for the Macy’s article. Looks to me that they pre-announced to save the stock from bad sama store numbers. 

    I still don’t understand why pre-announcements are legal. We have earnings dates and conference calls for that.

  326. Optrader

     Some great words from Brett Steenbarger:

    Take the trader who loses money in a downward spiral through the day, without ever taking a break or exercising restraint. How is that different from someone who drinks themselves into a coma or who gambles away the family paycheck? The circular dynamics are identical: out of control behavior, unwanted and negative consequences, remorse and guilt, efforts at control, eventual relapse and loss of control.

    The tell-tale sign of trading addiction is a trader who cannot refrain from trading--even when markets are objectively offering no opportunity. Even when losses are mounting. 

  327. brianma

    Alexander Elder ehcoes a similar sentiment in Trading For A Living. He likens intentionally losing more than your predetermined stop to an alcoholic who promises he won’t have one more drink but does.

  328. Optrader

     AIG red. Now that’s something. And I thought I made a good trade earlier catching a 4.5% down move LOL.

  329. yadnum

    Pour  another double there bartender !

  330. brianma

    PLD daily interesting bottom

  331. brianma

    LPX daily taking off on big daily volume

  332. english

     Taking CSCO positive.  See if they can get this market moving again.  

  333. brianma

    A bit early for a stick

  334. brianma

    Ugly asymetrical bottom on the NQs 5min makes me wonder if we’ll sell off later after 3:00 vs stick.

     

  335. english

     I would not look for a selloff before the numbers tomorrow.  They need to get this market as high as possible to keep GS fighting the 5MA after the numbers

  336. brianma

    It’s going to be interesting when volume returns in Sept

  337. bclb

    is that an evening star starting to form in WSM?

  338. brianma

    Somone buyuing a lot of AAPL > 100K shares

  339. Optrader

     Buying or selling?

  340. english

     That’s me. I’m selling to buy raising money to buy more ANF

  341. brianma

    ANother 100K

  342. brianma

    ANother 100K

  343. brianma

    Server had probs.  Buying..two rounds

  344. brianma

    That’s 3 pushses down in NQ. Might get a stick

  345. english

     I think the Chinese said they will stop buying bonds if we let ANF close below the 5MA

  346. brianma

    Perhaps the main reason there is selling like this is because the ADP # was not good or something in that report that portends a bad nfp #. Otherwise, I’m surprised we’re getting directional movement today. Still "early" though.

  347. stoptrvl

    I think Eddie may have bought ANF with his AZO profits

  348. brianma

    Did that turn out to be a shooting star in RIMM yesterday? Looks like toast.

  349. bclb

    is someone here obsessed with ANF?

  350. bclb

    RIMM – I hope so then I can sell my puts and buy ANF

  351. brianma

    AAPL not going below those big buy orders yet.

  352. Optrader

     boring…

  353. brianma

    I was noticing the volatility has been darn good today esp for Aug. I noticed VIX is having a directional day so far.

  354. brianma

    VIX on a daily is starting to put in a double bottom.  This would be the first day thrust off the first low. 

  355. english

     Selling 1/3 SYNA calls here

  356. brianma

    Those buys in AAPL went off aroiund 164.10-.20. 

  357. english

     A lot of put buying going off in WFC

  358. brianma

    What if we start getting sitck-fakes? That would just be nasty!  That would suck in so many at this point.

  359. contingent

    So Goldman raised their forecast for second half GDP yesterday to save the markets and today Abby Joseph Cohen is out saying 1100 S&P by year end.  Seems like they are trying kinda hard.

  360. Optrader

     990 on ES is a key level

  361. english

     Rumor is GS is the buyer of the WFC puts.  AUG 26 and 24 puts, came in and bought all of the offers on the CBOE…we shall see tomorrow

  362. english

     Then 990 we shall not break. Like clock work.  As soon as i start piling into ES at 2:00 that will be the end of the stick saves

  363. arindamc

    Contingent, A lot of economists raised their GDP estimates yesterday for year end , not just GS. In fact, no one lowered their estimates. I’m not saying that the market is overbought currently but the GDP trend is not pointing down, but up. Let’s not get too occupied with conspiracy theories – it makes one feel good and wronged, etc, but does very little to increase trading profits.

  364. english

     Yah, somewhere between the conspiracy theories and CNBC probably lies the truth.  Now if only we could trade off something other than CNBC.

  365. Optrader

     Arindamc, great words. Agree 100% about conspiracy theories.

  366. Optrader

     About this, as it is my Dr Brett’s day:

    The Perils of Trading as a Victim

     
    I’ve seen bears make money, and I’ve seen bulls make money. I’ve worked with longer-term traders who have been profitable, and I’ve worked with successful daytraders. But there’s one group of traders I’ve never seen win. Those are traders who view themselves as victims.

    Victims don’t win, because--in a fundamental way--they do not see themselves as in control of their own destinies. They attribute their losses to bad luck, the market manipulations of others, or random, situational factors. It’s difficult to change problem patterns if you don’t own them. It’s difficult to sustain confidence if you don’t perceive yourself to be the driver of your own destiny.

    Trading victims mostly come in two flavors:

    1) Permabears who complain that markets are manipulated/distorted when their own views and theories are getting hammered;

    2) Active traders who whine that markets are not giving them enough opportunity.

  367. brianma

    I notice a lot of analysts/economists raising forecasts which is opposite what was done earlier in the year/last year. The market has already priced that in then, no?. No major moves ensued. It could be setting the stage for better than expected rallies and next earnings season.

  368. brianma

    that should be "the end of better than expected rallies…"

  369. brianma

    Good topic flor discussion. This would suggest fundamentals don’t matter then and most can not know what fundamentals are being considered when rallies the kind we’ve had happen in the face clearly deteriorating fundamentals. Also, when price behavior does things that either is exceptionally rare (ex. NQ) or unprecedented (last 2 weeks in July).

  370. Optrader

     CAKE looks like a good short here.

  371. english

    What are conspiracy theories anyway?  Anyone who looks at facts these days are considered conspiracy theorists. 

  372. brianma

    Also how do you buy into the there is no manipulation theory when legislation created to do expresely that was created after Black Monday? And again with TARP? How can one claim there is no manipulation?

  373. Optrader

     So is STAR

  374. english

     Cake looks like a great short.  Any longs look good to add to the portfolio?

  375. brianma

    I agree that good traders just follow the markets and cut losses when the market does not do what they expect. However, markets have been manipulated since the beginning of time and these markets are no different IMHO.

  376. english

     Star looks even better

  377. Optrader

     No one said there is no manipulation. Just said that complaining about it is not a very productive attitude in the stock market and does not lead anywhere. Just following the charts is way more efficient.

  378. Optrader

     Calls-Why not EBAY?

  379. arindamc

    Here’s the link for GDP forecast vs earlier predictions:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/08/03/getting-stronger-economists-raise-third-quarter-gdp-forecasts/
    GS is, in fact, more subdued than the others.

  380. brianma

    "Just following the charts is way more efficient."
    Totally agree and I’ll add less stressful too

  381. Optrader

     /OB bought STAR puts

  382. Optrader

     Had to short the stock though, low liquidity

  383. brianma

    However doing that (following) vs anticipating (selling into strength) are two distinctly different styles. And learning how to blend both into a consistently profitable approach is the crux of the matter.

  384. Optrader

     /OB bought EBAY calls.

  385. Optrader

     Brianma, unfortunately "anticipating", "guessing", "looking for tops/bottoms", does not work most of the time. Ask anyone who has been complaining about the strength of this market and trying to catch the top. Or anyone who was trying to catch the bottom last winter. 

    And the worst thing about it, is that people who do this, trying to guess direction, when the turn finally happens, they are out after a couple days.

  386. brianma

    For example, we have a close below a rising 5-prd MA today in the Qs though the 5MA has turned over if we get a close around here. It is decisively below the MA. Do we follow it or wait or…..? If following were that easy this type of trade would be a slam dunk but it’s not which is why so many try anticipate based off fundamentals and when markets are manipulted it screws that up and thus so called open-markets becomes nothing more than an elitist printing press for the privledged few in-the-know to some extent. When is the hand of government going to be there when isn’t it?

  387. Optrader

     It is a slam dunk. If you have good money management and stops. 

  388. Optrader

     No one can anticipate anything, no one knows when "the hand of the government is going to be there" or not.

  389. brianma

    Opt, agree with all that. Risk control is king. That said, I’m curious how many are taking this trade today in the Qs?
    Should I cue up the crickets…

    and if not why not?

  390. english

     CROX rocking

  391. Optrader

     It is a difficult concept to accept, but one of the most important ones. Traders want to be in control, they think that they can be smarter than the market, that they can guess direction, that they know better. But it is more about trying to be right, to feel good, than it is about making money.

    Yes, those trades are very easy, look at that chart, look at any chart, and tell me it would not have been easy to just follow the rules and the trend.

    Do you know how much money you would have made buying the Q’s on July 10th, when it crossed 5MA, and selling yesterday when it closed below for the first time? One trade like that, with options, and you should be fine for the year. And we had more than one like this here (especially on AAPL, but a lot of puts also last year).

    What is difficult is not the trade, it is to be disciplined enough to trade it. Disciplined enough to not listen to this little voice in our head that tells us that this can’t last, that it does not make sense, that it is too much, that the market is manipulated etc. Do you think traders who trade on their "opinions" of the fundamentals of the market make money like this?

    Sorry for emphasizing this so strongly, but it is a state of mind that is very difficult to get into, but that differentiates people who make money from everyone else out there.

  392. Optrader

     I did not take the trade in the Q’s for many different reasons:

    - We are already very bearish

    - There are big numbers tomorrow, and ianything could happen

    - I don’t trade ETF’s usually, only futures.

  393. Knotam

    Is that a bearish engulfing on AA?

  394. Optrader

     AA-Yes it is

  395. brianma

    Opt, I agree with everything you’ve said. ….the mind set, the importance of trend following, minimizing your "opinion", risk management, etc. it all determines who wins and who doesn’t. However some may find it not quite as easy as that and that trading may involve some kind of anticipation (and in a manipulated market can make that more difficult)..will the price go higher…will it go lower, etc. For those of us who did not take this trade in the Q’s we are cherry-picking the signals. Also we do have an opinion about the market…we are bearish. So we are not purely following in this sense. If we were following we would not be bearish until today. We are using some additional info/experience/opinions to select the signals we take vs don’t take. Perhaps we believe that maximizes our profits vs strictly following the rules. Second, we need to be aware of important reports and with experience know which reports are important and which aren’t. Again, we aren’t purely following. It’s so tempting to look at a chart and see how much money we would have made just by following. They don’t call it the hard right edge for nothing.  This is a very interesting topic.

  396. brianma

    I read a lot of trading bullitans. Back in june one fellow said he had had it with this what he called "casino-style" market. Supposedly, he had been profitable trading Qs for 9 years without a down month. Now he said he had had 4 consecutive down months. His biggest complaint was that every time the market was about to roll over it would shoot back up and his system which worked for 9 years (i.e. captured the rhythym of a rising and falling market) was not working any longer.

  397. Knotam

    Op / Anyone,
    HUM – Looks like a Hammer on todays candlestick. Would you read that as a bullish candle? Just excercising / trying to improve my chart reading skills, not actually looking to open a position.

  398. brianma

    It may be hammer though it didn’t close very far above it’s opening price (32.80/32.82) and if you count after markets, at 32.70 will close below invalidating the hammer. My understanding of a hammer is that the close needs to be "substantially" above the open with a long tail. This perhaps fails the "close substantially above" test. This perhaps may qualify more as a long-legged doji or a long shadow. Perhaps place a stop above this day’s high tomorrow with a stop-loss below the intraday low after the trade is executed. If the market opened down and then rallied in the AM taking out today’s high that would be ideal.

  399. Optrader

     HUM-It is a hammer indeed, but it is not that significant in this chart. A hammer is a reversal candle, so it is significant when it happens at the bottom of a downtrend, which is not the case here.

    Same for a shooting star, it is significant when it happens at the top of an uptrend.

    Hope this makes sense.

  400. Optrader

     Look at the hammer for example on the Q’s on November 21th. That was a significant one, as it was at the bottom of a crazy downtrend. And we never revisited that low.

  401. Knotam

    Thanks for the response…makes sense.

  402. albo

    Job Losses Slow to 247,000; Jobless Rate Dips- AP
    Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent. It was a better than expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending

  403. Optrader

     

    Urban Outfitters upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays
    Target to $29 from $18.

  404. Optrader

     

    Research in Motion checks show strong BlackBerry sales, says Piper Jaffray

    Piper’s North American channel checks indicated strong BlackBerry sales due to increased promotions and Sprint and Verizon, and the firm expects RIMM to report solid August quarter results. However, Piper keeps a Neutral rating on the stock.

     

    Palm checks show solid Pre sales, says Piper Jaffray
    Piper’s July channel checks indicate solid sales of the Palm Pre with low return rates. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock. :t

  405. Optrader

     

    Mosaic target raised to $65 from $60 at Soleil
    Soleil raised its target on Mosaic after meeting with management and maintains a Buy rating on the stock

     

    Monsanto estimates lowered at UBS
    UBS lowered Monsanto’s 2010 EPS estimate to $3.75 from $4.40 citing a limited rebound in Roundup volumes.

  406. Optrader

     

    Nvidia target raised to $19 from $14.50 at Citigroup
    Citigroup believes Nvidia’s Q2 results ease gross margin concerns and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

  407. Optrader

     

    Fannie, Freddie revival unlikely, WSJ says
    The share prices of Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have been rising lately but interested shareholders should give pause as both companies continue to have significant losses, according to the Wall Street Journal’s "Heard on the Street". And Fannie said it will need more billions more to stay afloat. It’s also not likely the U.S. will get back all of its $85B of taxpayer assistance. The possibility remains that they could be wound down at some point

  408. Optrader

     

    Buyout business sees some signs of life, WSJ reports
    After two difficult years private equity firms are seeing some positive movement, reports the Wall Street Journal. This week Blackstone Group (BX) reported better than expected earnings and there was a successful public offering from a Kohlberg Kravis Roberts owned company. While there remains billions of debt attached to past major acquisitions, other firms are also reporting improved performances. And with improvement in the debt markets, "there’s an opportunity to deliver companies on attractive terms," says Blackstone President Tony James. "You can effectively rewrite history by changing a company’s capital structure and reducing its leverage and purchase price."

  409. albo

    Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX): Upgraded to Overweight at Piper Jaffray; $7.50 target

     
    Piper Jaffray is upgrading Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) to Overweight from Neutral with a $7.50 target price (prev $3)

    Good call, English.

  410. Optrader

     /OS sold 1/3 EBAY calls

  411. Optrader

     /OS sold 1/3 X calls

  412. english

     sold 1/3 Ebay, sold a little crox, sold 1/3 X, covered 1/3 WFC short, sold 1/3 HIG.  SYNA still rocking

  413. english

     GS negative

  414. Optrader

     YOu kept some CROX through earnings? Wow, well done!

  415. Bees

    thanks english for the Gs call yesterday I have it to hedge my other position and its doing great! sold it all right at the open

  416. english

     I bought some crox back under 3 because I sold before last earnings and put an options strategy on that basically scratched the whole way around as the stock sold off.  I sold the 4 calls against half the other day for .50c.  I just bought those back and sold the 6 calls.  I like CROX for a while.  They raised their cash level by 50% and paid off there credit line.  They are debt free and sitting on 77 million in cash with a good CEO now.  Bill Gates is a large holder as well.  A lot of short funds attacked this company and that is what drew my eye.  that have been clamoring to get out as off late.  I plan on putting on an long option spread on the weekly chart and playing the 15, hopefully I can ride this for a year

  417. Optrader

     EUR/USD testing S2

  418. english

     Terrible chart in X forming

  419. english

     Najarian has to be foaming in his mouth.  They piled into the C jan 5-7.50 call spread for .05c about 3 weeks ago.  

  420. Optrader

     /OS sold last 1/3 X calls

  421. english

     Genz just keeps getting hit

  422. english

     time to just watch the old VWAP on the ES and peg to it till the close.  The pits are clearing out early today to head over to lollapalooza in Grant park. The buy stops are size beginning at 1008 and up to 1012.50, while the sell stops are below 1000, starting at 998 and again down at 991 and increasing under to 987. 

  423. Optrader

     EUR/USD-Wow!

  424. bclb

    sold last 1/3 of HANS

  425. english

     out of AZO here

  426. brianma

    Dollar-carry trade seems to only have applied to tech stocks. Divergences between NQ/YQ. If NQ stays this divergent it is probably a top for awhile.

  427. albo

    Stodgy old TLAB showing some signs of life.

  428. Optrader

     AZO back to $150

  429. brianma

    RIMM lagging..again

  430. english

     yah, AZO chart is showing a good reversal.  Concept trades are not working, but the charts are.  I threw my tv out the window and just trading the charts.  I don’t care what a company does or what there value is anymore.  

  431. english

     ANF looks like a clean shot to 50 soon if they can get over 34 in the next few days

  432. brianma

    Everybody trying to make sense of this market and failing. First it’s the better than expected numbers trade. Then when that no longer explains things then it’s the dollar-carry trade. None of it seems to work and so it goes in a…ahem…"managed" market. This market is the there’s-no-need-to-worry-trade-the-government-will-bale-stocks-out-trade and the Obama-I-want-the-market-back-up-at-any-cost-with-tarp-money-trade. 

  433. Optrader

     Do like english, throw the TV out the window.

  434. english

     I am now the guardian.  If anyone in here decides to not honor a stop, I will come to your house and close the position myself

  435. Optrader

     I like that ;-) I’ll leave the door open.

  436. english

     I am now in your kitchen and I am coming to close your ANF trade

  437. stoptrvl

    English – can you come close my ANF position?  What is everyone doing with this one?  I’m really not that worried about this position because I just sold the 27.5 puts yesterday and now my position is about 1/4.  Trying to decide if I should just give this one up or wait and move up my long puts

  438. Optrader

     ANF-I only have 1/3 left, and I find it very difficult to close it when I look at this chart. I almost want to add. 

     

  439. english

     I blew out of that and am licking my wounds.  I took a 2.5R loss.  I got short on fundies in the face of a chart that I should have been long if I did not even know what the symbol was connected to.  I think I might have my 10 year old nephew trade for me as he doesn’t know the companies.  Or better yet, what about a function that removes the symbols on our software, just leaves you with scans of charts

  440. english

     Remember you have earnings soon in ANF

  441. brianma

    "throw the TV out the window."

    Well I would but its the only way to watch retro toons during the day. ;)    I’ll just have to put a block on CNBC.
    For those that have seen desk traders trade with VWAP, what do they use to measure how far below/above VWAP to start buying/selling?

  442. Optrader

     I don’t mind the ANF’s trade. I can be patient on it, took a little profit on it the other day on the daytrade, and like I said I only have 1/3 left. I think the mistake we made was getting out of KSS calls too early. That would have provided a good cushion while we waited for ANF to drop.

    Fundamentals are really terrible on this one. I don’t know how long they will last if they keep burning cash like this and sales don’t improve. 

  443. Optrader

     Everything you say is so right, though.

  444. english

     Who knows.  That is what those HFT algorithms are all about.  As they compete with eachother the range gets tighter and tighter until snap.  That is the unknown.  

  445. english

     covered 1/3 AMZN

  446. english

     I will jump back into ANF if the chart turns bearish for sure.  I am not trading the company but rather the traders on the other side.  they have gotten it right so far, so I bow to them and thrust the proverbial knife into my gut in shame.  

  447. brianma

    A test: RIMM. It has been upgraded, promoted by pundits, and has been in the leading sector for this rally but right now it is lagging badly (or goodly depending on your views). We all know what they make and we all know how popular it is. The fundamentals may not support a short sale but the chart is screaming sell. Can we sell it just by the chart alone? (my answer later)

  448. Optrader

     Except that traders on the other side are probably mostly shorts covering LOL.

  449. english

     Maybe.  The chart says 50 before 26.  Remember, we are in a new era where profits don’t matter.  As long as we are promised that ANF will sell plaid sweaters to the chinese middle class in 5 years that is good enough for me to put a 60 pe on.  Just imagine all those cargo shorts in china

  450. english

     LOL of course

  451. Optrader

     EUR/USD going for S3…

  452. brianma

    New daily highs in the dollar

  453. english

     Are you planning on holding ANF through earnings?

  454. Optrader

     ANF-I have not decided yet. The puts are holding pretty well today though, considering the jump. I might do a spread for earnings, will look at it this weekend.

  455. Optrader

     Good place to go long for a trade on EUR/USD around S3.

  456. Optrader

     Amazing that the market is so strong with this move in the dollar.

  457. english

     sold last 1/3 X here

  458. english

     Sold another 1/3 HIG calls here

  459. english

     Out of the last 1/3 EBAY

  460. Optrader

     Are you turning very bearish here?

  461. english

     No, i have covered AZO, AMZN as well

  462. english

     I did not enter STAR so EBAY was just a bonus long I guess

  463. Optrader

    Oh ok..

  464. english

     Last weeks insider transactions.  5 buys for 13.4 million…..145 sells for 1 billion

  465. Optrader

     Did Eddie sell?

  466. english

     Bought calls in NYX

  467. english

     bought puts in GS

  468. english

     Buying put in ZMH

  469. Optrader

     Look at X…

  470. Optrader

     Selling 1/2 of EUR/USD, made a quick 1.5 R on this 1/2, will let the rest run.

  471. yadnum

    Opt
    Any thoughts on RRD . They misses earnings  on Wednesday only it rip up this morning..

  472. brianma

    In this new world of bizarro price action, markets can drift around the highs without worry of being sold. New continuation momentum comes from thin air

  473. english

     bought calls in SUN

  474. bclb

    opt are you still in EBAY?

  475. Optrader

     RRD-It is a classic chart breaking up. If you want to go short, stay out of it for now. very difficult to short anything right now, even on bad earnings.

  476. Optrader

     EBAY-Yes, I only sold 1/3.

  477. arindamc

    While you guys have been obsessing about ANF (me too, BTW), PALM has been on a nice little swoon since last Tuesday.

  478. english

     Covered 1/3 ZMH puts 

  479. Optrader

     PALM-I know..I am still short here. Would love to see it break the 50MA.

  480. Optrader

     ZMH-Good find, that’s an ugly chart

  481. english

     Out of TXT but they just keep coming after those calls in size

  482. english

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-exhausting-day-appropriately-capped-baseball
     
    I can’t remember if I posted this before.  Just in case any of you are bored and wondering what the shed I trade in looks like.

  483. english

     Opt, let’s pretend to sell our make believe KSS calls here

  484. english

     ANF only .15c away from testing the top there

  485. Optrader

     SRS-No bottom

  486. Optrader

     ANF-We are right there.

  487. english

     GS short acting well.  Dark cloud cover

  488. bclb

    selling 1/3 position in DISH

  489. stoptrvl

    English – what stop did you use for SUN?

  490. english

     24.50 on SUN

  491. yadnum

    english
    Nice crib . Were those buy orders you were sending with that bat?

  492. stoptrvl

    Whats with the 70,00 Jan-11 F $25 puts in F being traded?

  493. stoptrvl

    English – did you just buy straight calls or a vertical in SUN?

  494. bclb

    buying back 1/3 position in VZ that I sold yesterday.

  495. albo

    English – Good call on GS.  I’m in that trade with you.  Hope I don’t jinx you.

  496. english

     Straight calls in september.  The verticals are impossible to get out of for any profit unless you hold them for a long time.

  497. Optrader

     Look at the URBN’s chart. Just amazing what is happening with those retailers. You would think that all teens are out in the malls buying like crazy.

  498. brianma

    BAC tanking

  499. Optrader

     Would be interesting if RIMM can break $77

  500. english

     Selling 1/3 GS puts here and selling 1/3 NYX calls

  501. brianma

    RIMM is in the toilet

  502. english

     Would like to see the RIMM chart turn bearish.  So much support though all over the place underneath. Could be a slog on the way down.  If the market turns, everything will drop hard and fast so it won’t matter what you have or what the charts look like

  503. brianma

    BAC at prev days low.  Finding support

  504. jamie

    english, What is so ugly about X’s chart??

  505. albo

    English – following your lead.

  506. Optrader

     X-It was ugly earlier, then turned.

  507. english

     covered another 1/3 GS here.  Has not broken this weekly line in a long time.  I will let the other 1/3 roll

  508. Optrader

    And GS keeps going down… 

  509. Optrader

     RHT-Bearish chart. Nice gap to fill.

  510. jamie

    Opt,  "
     X-It was ugly earlier, then turned.
     
    Reminds me of a few dates in my younger years, only it was the other way around!!

  511. Optrader

     LOL

  512. Knotam

    bought calls in MCD, TSN

  513. english

     Where is VWAP on the ES right now?

  514. Optrader

     /OS we are going to sell our last AZO puts at close.

  515. brianma

    vwap=1006.65 (I have )

  516. Optrader

     Not a very bullish close…

  517. english

     Thank you, we will be closing at 1006.65 then

  518. Optrader

     Have a good weekend!

  519. english

     And whalla, perfect close.  Have a great weekend everyone! Pretty soon we will be able to call the closing tick an hour before.  

  520. brianma

    English, what’s the rational behind that?  VWAP/closing?  BTW…you use TS?  FYI, you can get that number in RS and a futures feed.

  521. swellcat

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-exhausting-day-appropriately-capped-baseball
    _____
     
    Is he auditioning to be a CNBC reporter?

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging