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The Oxen Report: G-20, Durable Goods, and Michigan Influencing Market Movement


TGIF but what a week we have had. Thursday was another terrific day for us in the market with both of our picks working for solid 3% gains on the day. This is the third straight day of going 2/2. Our Buy Pick was DRV (Direxion’s Daily Real Estate Bear ETF). We bought DRV based on the news of the existing home sales being worse than estimates, and it was a great decision. We got in right at the news report for a price of 19.50, and we instantly turned it into 3% at 20.00. The stock jumped up more than 9% from our buy in price. The short sale of the day was a bit more drawn out. After entering early on the day’s morning rally, we shorted Shuffle Master Inc. (SHFL) at 6.50. The stock rallied to 6.70 almost stopping us out before decaying back to 9.26 right before the end of the day. It was literally a Short Sale of the Day, but we got the 3% we were looking for in this one, as well. This weekend I will update my virtual portfolio’s value, but this week alone so far our buy picks have been good for 10%. 

Let’s try to continue that success today…

 

Buy Pick of the Day (Short Sale of the Day): Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.

Durable good orders came back weaker than expected this morning from the Census Bureau. The durable good orders were expected to increase by 0.90%, down from 1.10% in July. The report came back with no increase whatsoever at 0.00%. This has reversed futures on the day, which were positive going into the report. Now futures have turned south, but there is still a lot of data to come out on the day. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will have some definite market influence at 9:55 AM and new home sales at 10:00 AM will also be crucial to the market’s movement. 

This situation makes it yet another tough day to decide now what to play. With the market turning south, it will most likely take something to reverse this trend, so we can expect it to decrease until that happens. Therefore, short selling and inverse ETFs seem to be the way to go today. That is why I have combined my buy pick of the day with the short sale of the day. Hovnanian Enterprises looks to be a solid short sale to start the session, and it may be a great buy at 10:00 AM.

With the existing home sales coming out much weaker than expected yesterday, it put a definite dent in all home stocks and the sector that is continuing over to today. Then, this morning, KB Homes reported very weak earnings with an EPS of -0.87 versus the expected -0.58. The company saw its revenue drop 33%, but the company did see a 62% rise in orders. The company is definitely in a state of transition, but there is still weakness in the home market. Many of the housing stocks have dropped significantly over the past couple weeks, but Hovnanian has not had the same downwards pressure. The stock sits in the middle of its bollinger band range, is netiher oversold or overbought, and not relatively strong or weak. It is right there in that position where it can decrease significantly or increase significantly. 

To start the day, HOV definitely looks ready to plummet. However, at 10:00 with existing home sales coming out, it could give  a boost back to the stock and the market, as a whole. Therefore, the stock is a short sale to start the day. We will then readjust to either buy more or short sale more at 10:00 AM based on the sales data. 

Entry: For our first entry, look to enter within the first couple minutes to take advantage of what should be downward pressure to start the day. This exact range will be defined in the Oxen Report Morning Levels Alert. Then, we will enter more at 10:00 AM with more shorts or some buys and a sale of our shorts.

Exit: We will want to take 1-2% in the morning on our short sale in case the 10:00 AM report is strong. Then, on our second short sale or first buy, we will want to take 2-3%.

Stop Loss: We will only put a stop loss on our second order.

Let me know if you have any questions, since this is a bit atypical for me. Since its Friday, though, its a good day to try something a little unique.

 

Good Investing and Good Luck,

David Ristau

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Comments


  1. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Morning Levels

    HOV – The morning levels on HOV have been down as far as 3.5%, but they are currently down 2.5%. We are wanting to look to short sale at 4.08 – 4.12. From there, we will want to take just 1-2% in profits. The stock has moved back upwards, which is good for us because the price is not too decayed. At the same time, though, movement upwards too much is something we want to avoid for sure.

    Happy Investing!

  2. oldgoat

     What about DRV again today?

  3. David Ristau

     Oldgoat – It would be a good play for the first 30 minutes of the day, but it could turn south very, very quickly if the existing home sales report comes out better than expected. If its bad, though, DRV will take off and you’ll be in a great position. Can’t really predict how that report will be though…

    David Ristau

  4. jromeha

    David, do you know if it is just Scottrade that doesnt allow shorts for stocks under 5$

  5. Rich_

    Etrade will not short sell HOV and the options price spread seems to be too much to play with small stock moves.
    Oh well.

  6. jromeha

    any other backup ‘picks of the day’?

  7. pvipul

    what’s the plan for HOV?

  8. sthompson

    That was certainly Blah. No update Dave?

  9. jromeha

    Im definitely a novice and not trying to sound like any sort of an expert, but a lot of times the best thing to do is what David recommended yesterday. Have 3 or 4 buy orders out, watch the dow closely (I do through scottrade elite), and once you see what direction the market is moving buy as many shares at market of the leveraged etf/stock that you can. I bought and sold 2k of DRV within the same minute and made 450.

  10. jromeha

    I mean once 10 hits and you see how the market is reacting to the news you buy/sell….

  11. sthompson

    I thought you should NEVER buy at market

  12. sthompson

    I mean NEVER buy or sell at market.

  13. jromeha

    Like I said, im no expert. However, the initial rush when big news reports are delivered usually creates huge movements in the leveraged ETFs in a very short period. One usually has just enough time to see how the market is taking the news and buy at market to still catch the initial wave. Depending on how much $ in your trading account it can be very profitable. Im not trying to go against anything David has said – the man is on a roll and I use all his predefined entry/exit prices. Im simply stating that for a day like today when etrade/scottrade didnt allow us to make the recommended trades then you can do the leveraged etf play as a substitute.

  14. Rich_

    jromeha – I agree with your nice play of DRV.  Good play!
    When the prices are moving quickly, you sometimes may lose a good trade by assigning your limit price.  Many of us have "chased" prices that way.  I know I have.  Yes, the system make take advantage of you, but in a liquid equity like DRV, it’s usually small.
    That said, I usually place reasonable limit prices.

  15. jere.wood

    jromeha
    You have a good point.  When I first started buying stocks on my own just over a year ago (great timing with the crash) I got burned time after time buying at market.   The price I paid was always higher and sometimes as much as a dollar a share higher than the current price.  I finally found out about limit orders and why I was getting burned on market orders.  I have missed out on many of Davids plays because it appears I can only set up one order at a time (My account is at Fidelity) and many times the action is done by the time I get done chasing the stock or ETF and can’t change my order fast enough to make the buy.  Perhaps buying at market makes sense in those cases.
    Maybe I need to change my brokerage account because I also have trouble shorting stocks at Fidelity.  
    Any feedback David?

  16. ljerman

    I have been playing EMGE now for 3 days.    The techs on this stock  looked fairly good I am amazed I cant find a reason yet to exit
    gonna regroup on Etfs until Monday really getting bearish as the week goes on
    LJJ

  17. Rich_

    jere – You might be able to open multiple windows and set trades in each one.

  18. ljerman

    I trade off my wifes fidelity account and they are really slow on trading.  I suggest you stay away from market orders (dave is the expert and i defer to him>  I moved my  retirement 401k to a tradeable  Etrade retirement account and their trading platforms work really smooth.  They gave me a 1000 dollar credit because of the amount i transfered as well Just my two cents 

  19. jere.wood

    Thanks for the feedback.  Sounds like I might be better served with a different brokerage firm.

  20. David Ristau

    Sorry everyone I was at the doctors.

    Jromeha – I don’t know about Scottrade. A lot of times they won’t have any available shares. On a short, you should just take the options route by buying calls if you can’t buy the short sales. Sorry I wasn’t there to say backup picks.

    Pvipul – Sorry I wasn’t there to state the plan. What I did was short at the open at 4.12 at 9:45 AM and shorted more positions at 4.18 after 10 AM. This hedged my position on the day to 4.15, which is where I am holding now for 2-3% which would be 4.07 – 4.03

    Jromeha – I like that plan…very good.

    Sthompson – I don’t think there is anything right with buying at market if you are confident about direction. I don’t tend to do it, but if I am certain a stock is about to move down 3% and it is showing signs that it has topped out…why not get in at market price. It may pop up a few more cents, but its going down 2-3%

    Maybe I should weigh in more…

    The problem with buying in or at market is like with what happened with HOV today. At 10 AM the market sold off a lot and then bounced up 10 cents, which is 2.5% for HOV. Even though the news was bad. If you bought at market at 10 AM, you were great…if you short sold you were not so great. However, if you looked at the price, put in a limit price on a short sale to a bit higher you got a nice premium. Its all about trying to get that premium. On SHFL yesterday, I knew the stock was going to go down, but it wasn’t from the market open price. It was from a higher price. If you know, though, that when SHFL was at the higher price…it is going to go down relatively soon, why not buy at market price? 


  21. David Ristau

     Ljerman – On EMGE, did you mean EMGE.PK?

    Rich – Yeah multiple windows is what I do to to help action different prices based on different market events.

    Ljerman – I would recommend ETrade or Thinkorswim as a trading platform. Fidelity, Ameritrade, and Schwab are more for longer term accounts. With what we are doing, you want a system like Etrade or TOS.

  22. David Ristau

     Okay everyone…

    So here is what is happening today with HOV. This will count as my midday report that usually is my alert. Since I was out, though, I owe it to everyone to make it available for all.

    HOV – We bought in at the 4.12 level in the morning. The stock never decreased 1-2% till we got to 10AM. At that point, existing home sales came out worse than expected, so we short sold more shares at 4.18, to hedge our position to 4.15. Now, we are waiting for a 2-3% pullback to 4.03 – 4.07. That will give us the movement we want today. 

    Trading currently at 4.12, but it was just at 4.07, so we are getting closer. Need the market to decay a bit more to help this one.

    Keep watch…

  23. ljerman

    GAWD you are the MAN!!!  I sold on your warning at 4.08 then i looked back on my fricking screen and it DROPPED to 3 bucks!   OMG! 

  24. sthompson

    Anyone using ETRADE have luck shorting HOV. I’ve never been sucessful shorting this stock. Etrade doesn’t allow it.

  25. David Ristau

    Ljerman – Haha. Thank you. I hope you made some good money.

    Sthompson – It may be because its under $5, but it may just be they don’t have enough shorts available. You can always try call options in these situations, but I understand the hesitancy on them as well.

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