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The Oxen Report – Markets Looking Up, But Can They Stay…

Yesterday did not turn out as well for us as some of the past days, but we were still able to make a slight profit on our short sale of Shanda Entertainment (SNDA). The short sale was bought out of the gate at 49.75. The stock never got down past 49.55 again, and we sold it at the end of the day for 49.63. It was worth 0.25% in gains. Our buy pick of the day was for Mosaic Co. (MOS). The company was picked due to what I thought would be a rally on the day before last evening’s earnings report. Instead, the stock plummeted three percent from our buy in of 46.60. So, we went a weak 1/2 yesterday.

Buy Pick of the Day: Short Sale on Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (PBG)

I only have the one pick today. I am short selling Pepsi Bottling Group. The company reported earnings that beat earnings but were down in revenues, the beat on earnings was only 0.01 cents per share. The company’s earnings were led by lowered commodity costs and higher prices. Revenues were down 5%. The earnings beat has sent the company up only 1.3% in pre-market trading, show that the buying interest has not really picked up due to the earnings.

Secondly, the company’s technicals are in such a way that they are showing a definite pullback today. The stock is out side of its upper bollinger band, it is overvalued extremely on RSI, and it is overbought. All signs are pointing, technically, to a pullback today. This pullback will be led fundamentally by the weakness in the earnings we see from the company. 

The general market has set this up nicely, in my opinion. Futures are up on basically just sentiment overall, and Australia’s decision to raise its interest rate, but there is really nothing tangible that is driving this market. For that reason, it will be much easier for investors to back out of PBG, compared to a day with fantastic rallying points. In my opinion, the market probably will fall down after opening today, which will even further help PBG.

Entry: We want to enter our short sale around 37.80 – 37.90.

Exit: Cover on a 2-3% gain from that entry.

Stop Loss: 3% on the high side.

Good Luck and Good Investing,

David Ristau

 

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Comments


  1. samz3700

    Does not look like a great day to be short anything – but who knows

  2. diamond

     David – It looks as if your were right about MOS (just a day off). Give yourself some credit!

  3. David Ristau

     Samz – I am going to disagree on that point. I think that it could be a really great day to short certain stocks that show the fundamentals and techs for a pullback, such as PBG.

    Diamond – Thanks. Haha.

  4. samz3700

    Guess I spoke too soon – nice pick!

  5. David Ristau

     Oxen Report Morning Levels

    This is a usual alert that is sent out to my Oxen Group Alert Members or Premium Members that have selected to receive my alerts. If you do not typically receive my alerts, then ask me how you can get them or check out your account.

    PBG – The stock opened much lower than I had anticipated, and we are readjusting our short sale to 30.30 – 30.40 as of 9:38 AM. I think we will be able to get into this now and benefit from a pullback. 

  6. David Ristau

     This is why I don’t think PBG is a solid stock:

     

     

    From AP, "The country’s largest Pepsi bottler earned $254 million, or $1.14 per share, compared with $231 million, or $1.06 per share, in the same quarter last year.
     
    The latest quarter’s results included $17 million, or 8 cents per share, for a favorable tax audit settlement and some other items.
     
    Analysts forecast profit of $1.05 per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll. Analysts’ estimates typically exclude one-time items.
     
    For the period ended Sept. 5, Pepsi Bottling’s sales dropped 5 percent to $3.63 billion from $3.81 billion. The results missed Wall Street’s estimate of $3.73 billion.
     
    The company reiterated that its full-year earnings will likely come in at the high end of its projected range of $2.30 to $2.40 per share.
     
    Analysts predict net income of $2.39 per share for the year.
     
    PepsiCo announced in August that it would buy Pepsi Bottling Group and another bottler, PepsiAmericas, in a deal worth a combined $7.8 billion."
  7. David Ristau

     Oxen Report Entry/Exit

    PBG – We got into PBG at 37.35. We are now looking for an exit of as much as 3%, but the stock may have lower movement than some of the more volatile stocks we like to play, therefore, if you can get 1% and are happy with it, take it. That would be a wide range of 36.98 – 36.25. The stock really needs the market to tank to get down to that 3% level but on its own is capable of the lesser.

    Good Investing!

  8. edholz

    MOS – In at 46.17 yesterday.  Out today at 48.23.  Thanks Dave.

  9. David Ristau

     Ed – There you go. Great buy my friend.

  10. David Ristau

     Looks like the longterm play on FDO is working pretty well. We are up currently up 6.5% on our Friday long play buy in. If you are happy with that, you can surely exit. I am holding onto this one though through tomorrow’s session as it still has a lot of room to grow on this upside.

  11. jromeha

    Yes, great call on FDO! Do you like shorting Macy’s (M) again? THey are up near their 52 week high which seems to be even more ridiculous then the rest of this crazy market… Tell me how retailers are near their 52 week high? I thought they could potentially be going bankrupt!!? I am shorting 500 shares at 18.85, just curious if you think its a good play? THx…

  12. David Ristau

    Jromeha – Yeah I think this one was definitely toppy right at 19.00 per share based on Bollinger Bands. It, however, does look like it has some momentum left with some more buyers entering it as the market rallies. If the market really drops off when we get some REAL news, it will definitely be a solid play. I wouldn’t expect to hold for lower than 16.50ish.

    Nice choice.

  13. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Midday Message

    PBG – The stock is right at where we originally shorted the stock. The stock decayed early in the morning and was headed downwards. It got tripped up, though, by the market rally and it is basically followed the market upwards to even on the day. For now, I am holding this one. Typically, I would sell at the end of the day, but I think this one is good past today. This stock is way too overvalued, and the second the market sees any resistance, PBG is going to be sold.

    Happy Investing!

  14. diamond

    David – THANK YOU!!! ;-)
     
    I made some nice coin on both FDO (options) and MOS (options).
     
    I definitely appreciate your work!

  15. David Ristau

    Diamond – Great to hear. Thanks for the comment.

  16. Rich_

    David – I also did well on the MOS options.  Sold today, up 52%.  Could have been much higher, if I didn’t "chicken out " early.
    Still, very nice.
    Thanks, David.

  17. David Ristau

    Rich – I don’t think you chickened out. 52% is a great gain. The key to trading is harnessing your greed and being okay with making some amount of money whatever it is. Even if we make the most we can, we will always look for more.

  18. Rich_

    Very True!

  19. jere.wood

    David,
    I bought PBG an hour ago at 37.36.   This is my first ever short sale.  Are you still thinking 2 to 3% gain on this?  I will hold overnight as you suggest.  It seems to be stubbornly holding on at the moment even when the market decayed.

  20. ljerman

    dave  thanks as always for your sage advice used the 5 percent rule to take great profit on MOS .  Went down my own path today playing Gold and silver very heavy  Looking forward to your setups tomorrow.
     Your picks have added about 2-5 percent a day to my take and I appreciate your vision and confidence

  21. ljerman

    ps I cant for the life of me given the guidance that MOS gave, understand how that stock jumped as it did (perhaps all the long plays on POT)    

  22. David Ristau

     Jere – Yeah definitely hold onto this one. On any weakness in the market as a whole, this thing should really see some weakness as well. I am holding my position confidently.

    Ljerman – Thank you for the kind words, and I am glad that I can help you in some way. Well, it was so undervalued, and bad earnings were actually priced in due to Potash’s downward guidance. The market, thus, in return when it saw the bad earnings had already priced that into the stock, which I thought would give it the bounce on the positive market yesterday. Today, though, after the earnings came in as expected, lots of people bought back into it….sort of weird logic but that is all I can say.

  23. lynn2long

    how come FDO turn south after such great earnings ? I bought call option and is not a loss, should i sell or hold for price to recover?

  24. lynn2long

    sorry, i meant my call option is at a loss of 50%

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