Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member


The Oxen Report – Alcoa and Initial Jobless Claims To Restart Rally?

Yesterday, we opened two new positions to add to our already open two positions (one of which we closed). We bought ERX after the report that crude oil inventories were down from last week 1 million barrels, signaling an uptick in demand. We got into the ETF at 40.50. We sold at the end of the day for a nice 1.40% gain, getting out at 41.06. Although, we were not able to reach that 2% threshold, we still made some money. The Short Sale of the Day was Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE). We got into HELE at 22.05, but the stock kept a steady gain throughout the day, almost stopping us out. In my midday message, I commented that it would not hurt to hold this one through at least today to see if it can go down, since we were already so close to being stopped out. HELE, therefore, is still open. PBG is still open, and it has not even hit the 1% gain we are looking for yet, and we have not been stopped out. Finally, we closed out Family Dollar Stores (FDO) for a sweet 10.69% gain over 3 days, which was originally recommended on Friday afternoon for an entry of 26.60. So, we finished yesterday 2/2 with 2 still open positions. 

Let’s keep making money…

 

Buy Pick of the Day: Ultra Financial Proshares (UYG)

I am concerned about the market’s ability to keep things going, but the fundamentals appear to be there for the market to rally today. We have some mixed news coming through the door, most of which appears better than worse. Yet, we have a market that has rallied significantly without much of any pullback, and I am not sure we can keep things going. The market looks to open much higher with futures up 75 points as of 8:45 AM. It is rallying behind positive earnings and outlook from silver producer Alcoa and a beat in initial jobless claims that saw the country lose 521,000 jobs last week, beating the expected 542,000. Alcoa is seen as a bellwether stock and the first test of earnings season, so it was definitely great to see them beat. Even most retailers were able to beat expectations in September.

The financial sector is the one that is staying under the radar and with the rally that we should see today, it should have a larger benefit because we can get into it at a cheaper price. UYG is only up about 1.5% in pre-market trading and is a very cheap stock around $6 per share. The only news coming out of the financial sector was that Citigroup’s management got a solid rating, but they said that some shuffling of management may be necessary. I am not sure how much this will affect the stock or a financial ETF, but its something.

Really, UYG will follow the market. I think we might see just a small pullback to start the day and rally from there. UYG is overvalued, but on stochastics it is right in the middle of oversold and overbought, and it just changed directions towards moving up with more buying. The stock has room on its upper bollinger bands to around the 6.50 area, which is still around 8-9% before I would guess we would see a lot of resistance. Technically, while it is not a red alarm buy, we can justify that this one has the potential to keep moving up.

If you believe today we will rally, then you should believe in UYG.

Entry: We are looking for an entry of 5.92 – 6.02 after some pullback in the morning.

Exit: 2-3% on top of entry.

Stop Loss: 3% on bottom.

 

Unfortunately, we will keep it to just the buy pick today. We have 2 other open positions, and I am running out of time to make the thorough investigation of a short sale. We have shorts on PBG and HELE open that probably will be stopped out today.

Good luck today and Good Investing!

David Ristau 

Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments


  1. jromeha

    David, can you tell me why you specifically selected faz rather than DRV, or another 3x bear? The reason I ask is DRV is down over 1$ premarket while faz is only down 50 cents

  2. David Ristau

     Jromeha – I switched my position to a bull. I am getting behind a rally after looking at some more data and charts.

  3. Zuko775

    David, I’m Short on DIA at 97.25.  Looks like a loser today.  Should I dump it at the bell or wait?  I noticed you expect a pullback after the bell.  Why  does that happen?

  4. David Ristau

     Oxen Report Morning Levels

    UYG – Has come down just slightly, but I still like our 5.92 – 6.02 range for buying UYG. We should look for a pullback in the morning to get into this range, and then look for the market to rally. One point of concern for the market to rally or falter on is the wholesale inventories at 10 AM. If those are good, it will give the market even more reason to head forward. Let’s not think about the other till we have to think about it.

    Happy Investing!

  5. David Ristau

     Zuko – I would definitely dump it today if you have made money and are happy with closing your position. I think you should get rid of it within first 30 minutes for as high as possible. I think we will see a small pullback because we continue to see futures of stocks and the market drop slowly. Investors are going to take profits when they see them, and that’ll be a lot to start the day. The market, though, should rally. It will be very small pullback. 

  6. soulfly

     David, would you short HELE here at $23 or just give up on it? 

  7. David Ristau

    Soulfly – I am going to avoid this one. I got burned on it, and the low volume that it has is just making it really unpredictable. I think we can just chalk this one up to a miss at this point. There are better options.

  8. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Midday Message

    UYG – Well, this one is starting to work out really well for us. On the pullback I was expecting in the morning, we were able to get into the stock at 6.02. From there, we are looking for an exit of 6.14 – 6.20. The stock has gotten to 6.13. The movement on UYG is slow and sustained, so I do think we will get that 6.14…not sure about 6.20. I am happy with the 2% as always, but I will put in the stop sell at 6.14 if it gets past it by a couple cents.

    HELE – Well, I officially got stopped out for a 3% loss since the stock opened higher. Took my losses at 22.80 for this one. The low volume really hurt this one, which I thought would help it.

    PBG – We finally got that pullback we were looking for on this one due to its extreme overvalue. It almost got to 1%, and is at about a 0.80% gain right now. We are continuing to hold PBG until we do get at least that 1%, and I will readjust to try to get to two with a stop loss at 36.98 if we do get past that point.

    Good Investing!

  9. David Ristau

    Hey all,

    Quick update on positions…this was in my midday message:

    UYG – Entered at 6.02, we are up about 2% right now.

    HELE – Got stopped out at 3% loss to start the day.

    PBG – We are up close to 1% on our stop loss, still holding.

Dashboard

 Sector Performances (Today)

 Thermal Imaging

Utilities-0.54 %
 
Aerospace-0.61 %
 
Retail-Wholesale-0.62 %
 
Finance-0.79 %
 
Consumer Staples-1.09 %
 
Medical-1.09 %
 
Consumer Discretionary-1.14 %
 
Business Services-1.14 %
 
Computer and Technology-1.15 %
 
Transportation-1.35 %
 
Multi-Sector Conglomerate-1.40 %
 
Industrial Products-1.60 %
 
Oils-Energy-1.62 %
 
Auto-Tires-Trucks-1.64 %
 
Construction-1.74 %
 
Basic Materials-1.90 %