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The Oxen Report: Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment to Push Market Higher

Hello Readers,

SOLF once again looks to have denied us glory in an Overnight Trade. We are just under even from our buy in yesterday, but it appears that we are going to take a small loss on this one. I apologize for the miss, and I will discuss it in more detail in a morning alert once the market opens. For now, though, we want to get out at the open and take our losses.

Let’s get into my Buy Pick of the Day…

 

Buy Pick of the Day: Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG)

Analysis: The market is looking pretty darn solid today. We saw unemployment rates come in lower than expected at 9.7%, which is not as amazing of a spectacle to the fact that non-farm payrolls came in 36K vs. the expected 55K. That is a huge miss, and it is a great sign that losses are slowly but surely coming to an end. The market is reacting in a positive way with futures over 50 point on the Dow. Yet, the gains are not too much where the market won’t have the ability to continue to rally. A lot of the market is starting to look toppy, which makes me semi-nervous, but I think the market has a lot of reason to soar today. 

I like the Ultra Proshares Financials ETF (UYG) as my play of the day. Going into the day, the ETF is only up 1.5% on a solid day, which means we can still get into it before it starts to run away from us. Further, I am expecting the market to continue this upward trend today. The world’s markets all traded up big today. The oil market is moving upwards. The futures are moving upwards. There is a general positive attitude across the market today…except for solar. 

Why the financials? Honestly, I am looking for something a bit under the radar. The big news today is in the communications industry, solar, and jobs data. Financials are not too overvalued going into the day and present a solid intraday trade. There is not a whole lot of news out of the sector, which is not good or bad for us. This one is going to follow the market. Futures continue to strengthen, and this looks to be a solid day. UYG is a battering ram too. It moves up and up with consistency. So, that limits some risk.

Technically, ETFs are hard to gage, especially the Proshares. Though, UYG does appear somewhat overvalued in the short term. At the same time, the ETF is in a stupendous upward trend. It still has room on its upside as it continues to move upwards, and its steady growth appears more consistent and a sure thing than volatile. I think we have a nice safe play today to accompany the problems we have run into with solar. 

Good luck today and enjoy your weekend!

Entry: We are looking to get involved in the 5.55 – 6.05 range.

Exit: We want to sell for a 2-3% gain.

Stop Loss: 3% on bottom.

 

Good Investing,

David Ristau 

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Comments



  1. David Ristau

    SOLF Update

    (This is a preview of an alert that I would send out typically to only my alert members)

    On SOLF, we are out at 7.15 at the market open. We bought into it at 7.24 yesterday, so we lost just over 1% on this one. Not terrible but obviously not what we were looking for from SOLF. The mistake I made with this one, while they did beat earnings, is that we had the wrong estimate on EPS. I had 0.12 for some reason, but that was actually the low estimates. I am sorry for that mistake. Because of this, the beat to me appeared exceptional, but it was actually minor. Compared with STP and the solar rise, it was not enough. Additionally, the company had beaten by over 100% for the past two quarters. When I saw it this morning, I thought oh another 100%. Looked at the EPS estimates again and was shocked. I apologize for this clerical mistake and will try to do better next time.

    Thanks everyone and let’s go UYG.

  2. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Entry/Exit

    UYG – We are in at 5.99. We are looking for an exit of 6.11 – 6.17 for a 2-3% gain. The ETF has been pretty flat so far today, but as the market continues to trend upwards, UYG will continue to make us money. Go financials!

    Good Investing!

  3. biodieselchris

    I don’t get into the office until 9 AM pacific time, so I need to take that into account when looking at these trades. Still holding SOLF and UYG is already at 6.10 (and could do an intraday reversal at any point)

  4. David Ristau

    Biodiesel -

    Yeah…hmm. I mean a lot of my trades are things I need to do at the beginning of the day. The overnight trades are viable options, but I like to exit in the mornings. Not sure what the solution is here.

  5. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Midday Alert

    The market has continued to trend upwards, which has been great for us.

    UYG – We got in at 5.99. We are looking to exit at 6.11 – 6.17. The ETF is at 6.08 right now, and the ETF hit a high of 6.10, right under 2%. We have the lunchtime doldrums hitting us right now, so look for this one to get moving again at 1 PM. We will be exiting hopefully this afternoon. 

    Good Investing!

  6. biodieselchris

    I like SOLF too, in general, but solar as a sector is a difficult one. ENER, SPWRA, and FSLR all rate D or F from Schwab reports (even though FSLR does have good profit margins). I also hold some LDK, leftover from a buy at 18 that is obviously way under water, AKNS, and FSLR April calls.
     
    I love to invest in industries I absolutely hate, further evidence: NGBF, PEIX and BIOF. But hey, those are up 100% plus, so maybe my strategy in solar is about to pay off?

  7. biodieselchris

    post the link to your SA again, could you (or click on your profile where it says "Logged in as" below and post the link under your PSW user handle….

  8. David Ristau

     Bio -

    I know what you mean about investing in things you hate. Here is the link: http://seekingalpha.com/author/the-oxen-group/articles

  9. David Ristau

    Oxen Report Entry/Exit Alert   

    (This is a preview of an alert that I would send out to my Oxen Report Alert members)

    Well, I have decided to get out of UYG for the 2% gain at 6.11. With an entry of 5.99, we are out for a solid 2% for the day. I don’t think the market is going to get much more momentum throughout the day. I would recommend exiting now. If anything, I could see us losing some of these gains as we move into the last couple hours of the Friday session. 

    Position: Sell UYG

  10. David Ristau

    Hey everyone,

    I don’t know if anyone has Facebook, but I created a group for The Oxen Report. Feel free to join. A good way to communicate with me is on Facebook. So, you can add me as a friend through the group. 

    Here is the link for the group. 

    Thanks and Good Investing

  11. David Ristau
    Hey everyone,
     
    I don’t know if anyone has Facebook, but I created a group for The Oxen Report. Feel free to join. A good way to communicate with me is on Facebook. So, you can add me as a friend through the group. 
     
     
    Thanks and Good Investing

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