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The Oxen Report: Can the Market Keep Rallying with Cable Earnings and Employment Numbers?

Today is going to be a fun day for us. We may get some picks right and wrong, but as I promised yesterday, I am going to make picks from now until the close. I will only be able to participate in some of the picks due to the restrictions of my virtual portfolio, but I will continue to make picks until I run out of time. You can pick and choose which ones best suit your personal investing philosophy. We will start the morning with our typical buy and sell picks and go from there. 

Yesterday, we exited at the open Climarex Energy (XEC) for a small loss. The stock went on to have a big day, but they missed earnings and revenue estimates and were looking to open down. We got involved at 70.60 and exited at 70.10 for a small loss. We also entered yesterday ON Semiconductor (ONNN). The company reported better than expected EPS at 0.24 vs. the expected 0.20, had a nice future forecasting that was within guidance estimates, but the market does not think it is enough. It is set to open right where we bought it yesterday. This is one I feel like we should let ride if the market is going to open higher, which will depend on the unemployment claims report. Check back in my Morning Levels Alert for the final decision.

Let’s get picking!

 

Buy Pick of the Day: Crocs Inc. (CROX)

Analysis: I know what you are thinking…Crocs? Am I serious? Yes. I am serious. Crocs looks to be a good pickup today on a possible lower open and/or early decline to the day. The company is set to report earnings per share at 0.20 vs. one year ago’s loss of 0.36 per share. Additionally, this company has had 100%+ beats 2/3 quarters, and I believe there should be some pretty strong buying interest moving into earnings. 

Other shoe companies have faired well this earnings season. Skechers (SKX), as you may remember, had an exceptional quarter blowing out earnings. Deckers Outdoor, Steve Madden, and even K-Swiss all beat earnings estimates. Retail has been good to the shoe departments this quarter, and this quarter is the bread and butter of Crocs, moving into earnings. With the industry looking strong and the company itself poised for large growth, Crocs has already attracted industry and it should continue this afternoon.

The company has become a bit overvalued on RSI, but a recent drop of 4% has given the stock some room for growth today and tomorrow. The stock has almost 10% growth room to its upper bollinger band, and it has moved into oversold territory on fast stochastics. With the market looking down this morning, CROX probably will open a bit down and drop some to start the day. This will make the valuation even more attractive.

We will have to watch this one closely out of the gate and throughout the morning, but I will be ready to signal to you when to buy it.

Go CROX!

Entry: We are looking to enter at 12.15 – 12.25.

Exit: We are looking to exit for a 2-4% gain.

Stop Loss: 3% on bottom.

 

Short Sale of the Day: Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (CRZO) 

Analysis: The market’s troubles this morning is definitely looking attractive for more short sales of some overvalued positions, especially ones that have moved outside of their upper bollinger bands. One of the best shorts that I see is an independent oil and gas company that reported earnings this morning with a solid beat, Carrizo Oil and Gas Inc. (CRZO). The company reported an EPS at 0.34 vs. the expected 0.26 along with a solid revenue growth at 27%. The beat has helped send shares soaring close to 5% in the green this morning.

Yet, CRZO is already significantly overvalued. The stock was already only 2% below its upper bollinger band. With its hefty growth this morning, a short sale and profit taking is in order. Stochastics show that the stock was already overbought, and that will move higher with a higher open. Additionally, RSI is at the short sale zone above 60. 

These technicals are coupled with a market that is looking to decline this morning. Unemployment claims came in 19,000 people higher than expected, and it is the first time in weeks that they have missed so strongly. Earnings were nothing too exciting as well this morning with some pretty poor showings from a couple leaders like Unilever, Time Warner Cable, and Beazer Homes. Further, oil prices were on the decline this morning, which also does not help CRZO.

We want to get into CRZO right away this morning.

Entry: We are looking to get involved at 21.30 – 21.50.

Exit: We are looking to cover for a 2-3% gain.

Stop Buy: 3% on top.

 

Good Investing,

David Ristau

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Comments



  1. SaiRam

    David,
    What to do with ONNN?

  2. David Ristau

    Sai -

    Let’s hold it until at least 10 AM. It cannot decline to much more as it is very near the lower band. I think we are due for some bounce.

  3. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Morning Levels, New Positions, ONNN

    The morning levels are pretty stable in the mid-30s. They have not continued down this morning, which is actually probably a good thing for us. We want a small rally here to start the day to help push our ONNN position back up to even. I think the 4% decline is completely un-fundamental, so it should get a bounce.

    CROX – Our Buy position is in Crocs. We are looking to get involved at 12.15 – 12.25 still. The stock is a little above that in pre-market, but I think it will still give up some more before it makes a run to the upside.

    CRZO – I think we will want to increase our range in CRZO to 21.35 – 21.55 after the stock has moved up a bit more in pre-market.

    ONNN – Down 2.5% to start the morning. Current idea is to hold until 10 AM and reassess then.

     

    Good Investing!

  4. David Ristau

    CROX opened above range and literally dropped to 12 instantly. I am picking up shares there…way to low.

  5. David Ristau

    I am CRZO at 21.55.

  6. David Ristau

    ONNN also got an upgrade this morning after beating expectations from FBR Capital…unbelievable.

  7. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Entry/Exit

    CROX – I am in at 12.02 it filled. We are looking to exit at 12.26 – 12.50. Already in the 2% range. I hope some of you got in on that super low entry.

    CRZO – We are involved at 21.55, and it is sitting slightly higher right now. Got the small pop, now it should sell.

    ONNN – Down still at where it was at open…holding.

  8. RussianQ

    disappointed wit onnn. following oxen is getting way too expensive for me :(

  9. David Ristau

    Russian -

    You are pretty alone in that bunch, but I hope it bounces back. I can’t do much more. Got a stock that beat earnings and revenue estimates, was undervalued going into earnings, and got an upgrade…

    Tell me where I went wrong instead of making comments like that.

  10. etradingsignals

    Cound’t get into crox. But am in crzo. lets see how it does.

  11. David Ristau

    Etrading -

    Where you get in? CROX is looking better in the early going…

  12. David Ristau

    I’m DD my CRZO position at 21.90 to raise my average position to 21.70.

  13. David Ristau

    CRZO is ridiculous…there earnings were fairly unexciting I thought. 

    Its looking like one of those days for me.

  14. RussianQ

    Some people cant follow every single trade, so they’re picking only some deals you post. In the big summed up picture you are doing a good job, but I have been mostly unlucky choosing trades you propose every once in a while. So no pressure ;)  

  15. David Ristau

    Russian -

    I see. Well, that is unlucky. I hope you didn’t sell ONNN. It ain’t done yet.

  16. dbarakat

    I might hold ONNN for a mid-term play, till I get the losses back.  This is BS.

  17. David Ristau

    Dbar -

    Yeah it is. I am holding still. I think its coming back..

  18. RussianQ

     lets hope, I will gladly find another reason to have some vodka tonight!

  19. etradingsignals

    David: I think some people have a unrealistic expectation of participating only in winning trades. A few others have the expectation that if your long term success rate is 75%, they expect to see 3 successful trades before a lossy trade. When they see 2 consecutive loosing trades, they are surprised. They don’t realize that the 75% is a long-term average and not a guarantee for any given week.
    Having said that, it will be great if u can have permanent link in your blog talking about position sizing. That is, what percentage of the account do u allocate for 1 day trades, 1 week trades and for long term trades. Position sizing can help maintain the long-term profitability of the trading account.

  20. SaiRam

    When are you going to exit from ONNN?

  21. etradingsignals

    Ouch! CRZO just shot up to 22.3
    I am at breakeven on ONNN. Shd I exit?

  22. dbarakat

    still holding CRZO?

  23. nicha

    CRZO crazy. Thinking of dd.

  24. David Ristau

    I am out of ONNN at 7.87…a tiny gain…much better than a loss.

    Crox I am out at 12.50. 4% gain.

  25. David Ristau

    Russian -

    There you go.

    Etrading -

    Good point. I could do something like that. I started the year with a $10000 Buy Portfolio, $7500 Short Sale, and each Long Term Position I take is $2000.

    Sai -

    I just did as it got to breakeven. Get out for breakeven. That is 5% from the open, so it won’t get much higher.

    Etrading -

    Yeah take breakeven or a small gain. That is a pretty big intraday gain, so it won’t be too much more. CRZO is ridiculous.

    Dbar -

    I am…unfortunately…went chasing. Should have just taken my licks…wasn’t expecting a stock already out of its upper band to jump another 5-6%…what do I know.

  26. David Ristau

    Working on a New OT play…

  27. David Ristau

    Here comes ONNN again.

  28. chyer

    David this market is crazy, ONNN numbers are fine, I have seen alot more companies with crappy numbers bounce higher, it seems like biggies are intent on screwing alot of traders

  29. David Ristau

    Chyer -

    Yeah there is definitely something fishy with it. Its back to even now, so we are okay…but that was a crazy run around.

  30. dbarakat

    I think that we need to start respecting our stops.  Harness the greed!

  31. David Ristau

    Dbar -

    Yep we do. CRZO coming down though very nicely, so we are okay here as well. All appears to be righting (knock on wood).

  32. gel1

    David
    My short puts on ONNN are holding – just waiting for a market move up and will close at a profit – good call on earnings and upgrade!

  33. bobhu

    Same here as gel1, thanks, David.

  34. David Ristau

    Gel and Bob -

    Thank you.

  35. David Ristau

    Okay first Overnight Trade today is Brooks Automation Inc. (BRKS)

  36. David Ristau

    Overnight Trade: Brooks Automation Inc. (BRKS)

    Analysis: IN PROGRESS

    Entry: We are looking to enter at 7.85 – 7.95.

    Exit: We are looking to exit tomorrow morning after earnings this evening.

    Stop Loss: None.

  37. bobhu

    Got in late with BRKS @ 8.03.
     
    Thanks, David

  38. David Ristau

    Overnight Trade: Brooks Automation Inc. (BRKS)

    Analysis: We are looking at a semiconductor equipment company for one of our first Overnight Trades for today. The semiconductor equipment industry has been absolutely fantastic this quarter. Since the beginning of July, in the semiconductor equipment industry, 19/21 reporting companies have beaten expectations. Brooks Automation provides automation, vacuum, and instrumentation solutions to the semiconductor industry. The company also provides products to the data and solar industries. The company is set to report EPS at 0.21 vs. one year ago’s quarterly loss at -0.37.

    The move to profits and the fact that the company is an industry that is blowing earnings out of the water was enough to get me attracted. Yet, this is coupled with an extreme undervaluation and a recent report from the company that they are expecting to report profits at 0.22 – 0.24. The company reported this result on July 13. It sent shares soaring more than 10% into the 9s. The stock, though, since that high has dropped to just above 8. This drop has the stock to an undervaluation, and it has allowed the stock to have a significant amount of upside. It is poised to beat, and we know it, yet it is not moving.

    The company, additionally, got an upgrade from "sell" to "hold" by S&P recently as well. S&P analyst Angelo Zino commented, "We think greater memory spending is driving demand from semiconductor (manufacturing) customers and believe inventory levels across the supply chain remain at healthy levels."

    Things look very good for Brooks Automation, and the company is going to beat it appears. Now, typically, this would mean the stock would either have seen a huge rise into earnings or a huge rise the day before. Neither has happened. BRKS looks to be quite a nice play for us to get into today.

    Every industry that Brooks is connected to is doing exceptional. The solar industry is booming, semiconductors have huge demand, and even data storage is doing very well. 

     

     

    Further, the company has a desperately low P/E ratio at just over 6. The company’s industry average is around 15. With that low P/E, a small earnings beat will be taken very well and increase share prices heavily. The company should definitely grow on a beat.

    Get in today and make some money on Brooks Automation!

    Entry: We are looking to enter at 7.85 – 7.95.

    Exit: We are looking to exit tomorrow morning.

     

    Good Investing,

    David Ristau

  39. David Ristau

    Bob -

    Still sitting pretty going into tomorrow.

  40. David Ristau

    Oxen Alert – Midday Update

    (This is a preview of a typical Oxen Alert that is sent out to Oxen Alert Members. If you are not receiving alerts, ask me how)

    Well, we have actually had a pretty solid day after a rocky start.

    CROX – Crocs was a big winner for us. I thought CROX would have a big day because of what looked to be a really nice earnings report coming overnight. The stock was undervalued, and the drop in the morning because of jobs report made it even more attractive. We got involved at 12.02, and we made 4%, exiting at 12.50 later in the morning. 

    CRZO – We got involved in CRZO as a Short Sale. The company looked good for a decline after an exceptional earnings and overvaluation. We got in at averaged position at 21.70, and we are looking to exit at 21.28. The stock has come very close at 21.30. We are looking to just get that 2%.

    ONNN – Our Overnight Trade had great earnings and got an upgrade this morning.Yet, it was a dud in trading. I exited for a 2 cent gain at 6.57 just to try and avoid any losses. It has gotten no higher than 6.89. If you are willing to have a nice hold, ONNN is actually a pretty good looking company moving forward. I needed the capital.

    We will have a couple more trades today.

    Good Investing!

  41. SaiRam

    ONNN exit is 6.87,typing mistake

  42. gatsby1965

     David – BRKS is moving up above your buy range. Do you expect a pull back before close?

  43. David Ristau

    Gatsby -

    I wouldn’t buy unless it is at least under 8.10…that’s pushing it. 8.05 and below would be better.

  44. jthoma

    I will wait on BKRS- if we buy above the range we run the risk of killing the trades

  45. David Ristau

    Sai -

    Thank you.

  46. David Ristau

    Jthoma -

    Thanks.

  47. stjeanluc

    David, aren’t you worried that the job numbers tomorrow could throw a wrench on the overnight trade? Bad numbers could take down the entire market very quickly! 

  48. David Ristau

    Stjean -

    I mean it might muffle good earnings, but I still think that good earnings are good earnings.

  49. stjeanluc

    I noticed that they surprised on the upside the last couple of earnings and got a nice boost over a couple of days! I guess something that could be held over a couple of days. 

  50. bobhu

    stjeanluc is corect on his point…  becareful here.
     
    my 2 cents.

  51. stjeanluc

    Also, no real option play on this one. The bid/ask spread is ridiculous… Maybe I’ll sit this one out. But they look good technically in general. 

  52. David Ristau

    Stjean -

    Got to do what you got to do. I’m paid to make picks.

    Bob -

    Will do.

  53. bobhu

    look CRZO, great short David.

  54. ban2

     Hi David
    this am sold naked calls on CRZO sept 22.50 @ $1.45. can buy back now @ $1.00 for nice 30% gain.
    unfortunately only did 10 but  +$450 better than poke in the eye — which I’ve had my share of this year
    keep those picks coming as I do get your alerts
    thanks much

  55. David Ristau

    Ban -

    Awesome job my friend.

    Bob -

    Thank you.

  56. David Ristau

    Let’s do a Midterm Trade to finish off the day…

  57. David Ristau

    Midterm Trade of the Day: Sunpower Corp. (SPWRA)

    Analysis: IN PROGRESS

    Entry: We are looking to get involved at 12.65 – 12.75.

    Exit: We are looking to exit at a 4-6% gain.

    Stop Loss: 5% on bottom.

     

    Get the analysis soon.

  58. David Ristau

    Midterm Trade of the Day: Sunpower Corp. (SPWRA)

    Analysis: I am very excited that we are getting into our first solar play of the season with one of my favorite companies in the industry Sunpower Corp. (SPWRA). The company is set for what could be a very nice earnings report this season. The initial first three solar companies have hit it out of the ballpark. The first company to report was First Solar. They beat earnings by 14%. Solarfun followed with a 112% beat, and GT Solar then hit a 175% beat. It has been a really great showing from solar thus far. Many analysts severely undervalued companies due to fears on currency exchanges with the falling Euro, but the diversification of many of these companies has helped them to subdue to the falling Euro.

    Sunpower is, like the other three, a PV cell maker. The company is actually the manufacturer of the most efficient PV cell in the entire world currently. Additionally, the company has an affordable line of PV cells called the E19 line that is a bit less efficient than their top cells, but it is much less expensive. The company has had a great past three months leading up to this report, and I think it will be highlighted in the company’s next earnings report.

    The company completed three projects in Italy that were the largest projects. They completed a number of projects in the USA. They continue to work in Germany and Spain, and they completed the largest solar powered tracking system in Australia. Additionally, the name of the game now in solar is cost efficiency. A number of cheap solar powered companies that operate thin film solar are going under or cancelling IPOs. While too costly solar power is no longer allowed. It is a complicated balancing act.

    Sunpower has been able to offer very efficient solar cells at a reasonable cost. The company should fall in line with already reporting solar companies with big earnings. What makes it a nice longer play is that it should get some big boost is that another leader in JA Solar will be reporting on Tuesday morning. This should lift the stock Tuesday and Monday is always a great pump day. 

    The undervaluation of SPWRA mixed with its definite capabilities for a beat and runup to it makes it a very attractive Midterm Trade.

    Entry: We are looking to get involved at 12.65 – 12.75.

    Exit: We are looking to exit for a 4-6% gain.

    Stop Loss: 5% on bottom.

     

    Good Investing,

    David Ristau

  59. David Ristau

    I am in SPWRA at 12.80.

  60. David Ristau

    I think that’ll do it for today.

  61. etradingsignals

    Are u still holding onto CAAS? I entered at 18.20 and its a good 9% higher. Should I exit? Whats your target price?

  62. David Ristau

    Etrading -

    I have this in my Long Portfolio with a target price in the mid to upper 20s…so I am still Long on it. If you want to take those gains…they are pretty nice. I think over the next 6-12 months though it has another 20% or more.

  63. bobhu

    Me too @ 12.80.
     
    Thanks, David

  64. David Ristau

    I’m going to be doing a huge Long Term Port. breakdown tomorrow along with a new Long Term Position.

  65. jromeha

    D, I know you said you would reevaluate WATG as it grew closer to earnings, what do you think of their 10$ Oct calls? They are only .25 cents, seemed VERY cheap to me so I loaded up on them.

  66. bobhu

    jromeha,
     
    WATG’s Aug calls ask for 0.10, will that be a better play since we bet for the earning report.
     
    What do you think? David.

  67. David Ristau

    Bob and Jro -

    They both will work. Earnings are on Monday, so we will look at it more closely tomorrow, but I definitely like the company.

  68. lapper

    CROX for everybody!  Buy those ugly plastic things like they are going out of style!  Yeah…buy me some of that crox stock :)
    David, why don’t you switch broker to somebody who lets you trade real time capital, not making you wait for settlement

  69. biodieselchris

     good call on CROX. As usual, very well done analysis Mr. DR.

  70. jromeha

    Bobhu – Im not really sure if I see them hitting 10$ by August that is why Im going for the Octobers.

  71. bobhu

    Jromeha,
     
    Got it, good point.

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