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Thursday: Through the Roof or Smashed into a Thousand Pieces?

GRANDPA JOE: But this roof is made of glass. It’ll shatter into a thousand pieces. We’ll be cut to ribbons!

WILLY WONKA: Probably

Is today going to be the day?  After pressing against our breakout levels all week, today do we should finally have the gas to get over the top or will our 5% levels keep acting like a solid barrier?  We had an afternoon rally yesterday and the Dow rose 44 points for the day – right near our 10,700 line.  The Nasdaq made our mark at 2,300 in a mini-stick into the close but the Russell continues to fall short of our Satanic target at 666 while the S&P is over it’s 50% line (discussed yesterday) at 1,121 but not over our 5% rule 1,155 so we’re still not impressed there and the NYSE also needs a pretty big move to get to our 7,350 target.  We’ve been flirting with a breakout all week but what’s it going to take to punch it through?.

Willy Wonka had the physics right, there had to be enough power to get through that overhead resistance or it was going to be a very painful test of the top (like the one we had in April).  Since our last dip, we’ve come back for another try but the volume has been substantially lower than it was in April, leading us to believe it is only TradeBots, and not Oompa Loompas, who are buying this market.  Can TradeBots alone give us enough "thrust" to break through this time?  It shouldn’t be THAT hard, in April we had highs of Dow 11,258 (5.6% higher than 10,680), S&P 1,219 (7.5% higher), Nas 2,535 (9.2%), NYSE 7,743 (7.2%) and Russell 745 (11.1%) so it’s not like we’re asking for a low with our little breakouts, are we?

SOX were 404, now 348 (13.8%), Transports were 2,279, now 2,254 (1%) and have been our leader so we’re watching them closely but what an odd discrepancy with the SOX, who have generally been reporting good earnings.  Internationally, the Hang Seng is off 10.2% (from 24,000), 15.5% on the Shanghai (3,026), 16.8% on the Nikkei (11,408) but the BSE is UP 0.07% - leading all global markets at 18,172!  Right behind India is Germany’s DAX, who just crossed positive this morning at 6,368 vs April’s high of 6,341.  The FTSE is more in line with other indices, down 7.3% from 5,833 and the CAC is also down 7.1% from 4,086.  As I mentioned yesterday, the Dollar is down 10% (but bouncing) since June but is actually flat to the end of April while Copper is up 7.6% (yet still below the early April high of $3.68), gold is 2.1% above April’s close (and we shorted it) but well off the June madness at $1,265 and oil went wild yesterday (another short – see post, Member Chat) and finished the day right on our $82.50 mark, but still 5.3% below April’s ridiculous close.  Mixed signals to say the least!.

Today we have Jobless claims and tomorrow we get the Non-Farm Payroll Report.  Less than 450,000 jobs lost and more than 100.000 net jobs gained can give us the push we need to break up and out.  India and the DAX are through the roof and breaking the bounds of market gravity and the Nikkei, the World’s lagging index, made the biggest gain today (up 1.7%) but STILL 47% off the Feb 2007 high of 18,215.  The Shanghai lost 0.67% today and is up 90% from the 2008 lows, not a bad run for 20 months!  At 326, the DJSH is still 50% off the highs and getting over these 50% levels will give a lot of credence to our theory that the markets want to return to about 1/3 off the highs globally. 

8:30 Update:  Oops, 479,000 people lost their jobs last week, that’s about 5% worse than expected and it looks like we were right to remain cautious into yesterday’s as the futures don’t like it one bit.  As I keep pointing out to our Members, the smart move is to play cautious (short-term bearish) at the inflection points as we are prone to sudden breakdowns and, IF we get through the resistance, we still have quite a long way to go so we’re better off protecting our gains and missing a 1% breakout, then risking our gains and getting burned on a 2.5% pullback. 

2.5% is about what we can be looking at tomorrow if Non-Farm Payrolls miss all the way back to 10,450 on the Dow and 1,095 on the S&P it will take good numbers to give us the boost we need to get over the top but that in itself tells a tale as it’s a top we’ve been over before and the fact that we’re having trouble here has to make us wonder about what it’s going to take to get us back to THERE.  QE2 is one possibility and mega-Kudos to Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett for rounding up $90Bn from 48 of our nation’s Billionaires, who have promised to donate AT LEAST 51% of their wealth to Charity

"We contacted between 70 and 80 people to get the 40. A few were unavailable. We don’t give up on them. Every saint has a past, every sinner has a future. We’ll keep on working," Buffett said.

Mayor Bloomberg, who made the bulk of his estimated $17.5 billion fortune from financial news and information services company Bloomberg L.P., said it didn’t make sense to leave everything to his children and have them go through life as members of "the lucky sperm club."  "You don’t want to leave them so much money that it ruins their lives," Bloomberg said. "You want kids who can look back and say, ‘Yeah my family helped me but I did something on my own.’"  Added Steyer: "We need to support each other. I look at this as replanting your garden so that future generations will have a full bounty of crops."

So a big thank you to 1% of the top 0.01% for not being, as Dickens so aptly puts it:  "Squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous, old sinners!"

The other 2,962 of the top 0.01% of our countrymen, on the other hand, will be fighting tooth and nail to keep 100% of their money piles when they die and, of course, not paying 3% more of their income in taxes, which is looking very likely as the Bush tax cuts expire this year.  They are also fighting to stop spending their tax money healing the sick (what are they, saints?) in a State by State knock-down, drag out fight against "Obamacare" as Missouri just passed a bill, sponsored by Senator Cunningham (R, of course) to invalidate mandatory coverage – without which the whole plan falls apart.

The referendum, known as Proposition C, was seen as a first look at efforts by conservatives to gather and rally their forces over the issue. Practically speaking, it remains entirely uncertain what effect the vote will have. The insurance requirement of the federal health care law does not come into effect until 2014. By then, experts say, the courts are likely to weigh in on the provision.

[Geithner_chart]Fighting for the bottom 99% of the people is our man Timmy, who spoke out against extending those Bush Tax cuts yesterday saying that keeping current tax levels even on a short-term basis "would hurt economic recovery by undermining confidence that we are prepared to make a commitment today to bring down our future deficits." The government needs the revenue it would get from allowing tax rates for the wealthy to rise, he said. 

Lawmakers are expected to address the issue of the expiring tax cuts, enacted during the George W. Bush administration, as soon as September. Most Democrats and the Obama administration favor extending them for the middle class, defined as families earning less than $250,000, but letting them end for higher-income earners.   Extending the current Bush tax cuts for 10 more year will sink us an additional $4Tn in debt and that’s not even addressing Corporations, who are paying less than 12% of their income in taxes on average under the current structure.  As I often point out, if corporation paid a 10% VAT – individuals wouldn’t have to pay taxes at all.

And what is all of the fuss really about with the dreaded EXPIRATION of Bush’s tax cuts (that helped propel our nation from $6Tn in debt when he took office to $11.5Tn when he left)?  3% of the money you earn OVER $235,450 under Obama’s plan but that is offset by a 3% DECREASE of the income you earn between $212,600 and $235,450 so you pay NOT ONE PENNY MORE in taxes on the money a married couple earns under $250,000 per year.  The people earning over $250,000 a year, will pay 3% more taxes so $3,750 out of the next $125,000 they earn, leaving them with "just" $121,250 for all that hard work (less regular "Bush approved" taxes, of course).  And what does depriving people of $3,750 of their earnings between $250,000 and $375,000 do for our economy?  It reduces our budget deficit by $650Bn a year – the money the government needs to fix the roads and educate the children and fight terrorism, etc….

How the expiration of President Bush's tax cuts might affect you in 2011


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  1. loopy

    Good Morning, a great combo piece on banks/lending and jobs:
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/08/auerback-the-real-reason-banks-arent-lending.html
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=10977
    Probably too early but I have a kid on the way and I’m not getting too much sleep.

  2. rstuart4201

    So jobs missed…futures aren’t down that much…do we shoot down to -100 in the first 30 minutes and then go back to float in the -30-50 range while we wait for the big news tomorrow?

  3. jromeha

    Loopy – a kid on the way? Just wait until he/she is born, my daughter didnt sleep through the night until the 20 month mark…

  4. jdub929

     Good morning all!
    Phil,
    Wanted to get your take on UN earnings report and how the upcoming austerity packages in Europe will affect consumer demand of branded items.  
    Also,  with this seemingly forced commodity driven rally (trying to create some type of inflation?) coupled with no job creation (here and in the Eurozone) will only create more of a mess ‘no?  Emerging market consumers do not have the purchasing power (not yet I believe) of the advanced economies so this is worrying me.  
    Your thoughts?
    Thanks!

  5. matt1966

    Looks like they’re still defending Monday’s low on FAS.  It has no significance other then being the edge of a gap.  I guess they want to keep the fantasy alive based on technicals.  I think we should finally take it out today.. but no guarantee for certain.  Bears have to worry about the carry trade coming back to the equity market.  Could be a long hibernation..

  6. rainman

    rsuart4201/100 — I can’t read it but I would have thought wed be down 100 already. It seems to me  like it should be down more here so you might get a surprise and we might close near flat again if they really want to take us higher.

  7. loopy

     
    jromeha ,
    Ouchie, 20 months??…We are having a boy!! Now I have one of each.  Trying to ‘hit up’ mom for another but she’s not so sure…either way I hope, with Phil’s lead, we all put our heads together and make some money!! 

  8. nicha

    loopy/jromeha- my daughter slept/sleepsp thru the night since she was 5 months old. Now she is 10 months old n

  9. loopy

    Phil, what would you do with BHI?  Looks like the only oil stock that has not run away and I thought it would be good for a bounce post merger news.

  10. gmarts

    jr, yeah make that money! kids ain’t cheap. Worth every penny but not cheap. Our baby is 17 now, other two in college, and in another year we’re empty nesters… WooooHooo!

  11. David Ristau

    Hey all,

    I have two new positions this morning. We are looking to Buy Crocs (CROX) and Short Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO).

    Check out my analysis, entry, exit, etc. here!

    Good Investing!

  12. loopy

    nicha,
    sweet, I have my fingers crossed, but my daughter still tortures me and mom during the night., she’s five!!

  13. loopy

    Anyone look at RVSB ? Lots of significant insider buying…anyone live in Vancouver or Portland that can comment on the company?

  14. yodi

    Hi Phil,
    Are we looking at some Mattress trding today selling Aug putters

  15. Phil

    Good morning!

    Very healthy bounce off the morning drop already but gold and oil are not recovering and the volume is not very exciting (15M on Dow in 20 mins) so, just like the rest of the week, we shall see what happens. 

    Nice and boring as we can practically memorize our levels at this point: Dow 10,700, S&P 1,155, Nas 2,300, NYSE 7,350 and Russell 666 - there’s some comfort in that…   

    Aug short plays are, of course, off the table now, can’t risk it all on the NFP numbers tomorrow.  It’s OK to wait and see if we clear 2,300 on the Nas if you didn’t sell into the morning excitement but, if we do, it’s going to be very painful to ride out as CLEARLY they are pulling out all the stops to take the markets higher. 

    EU Markets pulled back about 1% off a 1.25% up morning on our Jobs report so we’ll see how they finish at 11:30.  

    If oil gets back over $82 (now $81.85) then we are probably moving higher. Same with copper (now $3.36) at the $3.40 line.   I don’t consider gold $1,200 to be bullish.  To me a real market move up is one where gold goes the other way as it indicates that people are less fearful. 

    I have no upside plays and I like the same hedges we liked yesterday morning, about 0.5% higher than we are now!

  16. 42laurel

    Phil, hold or sell RIG ?

  17. chaps

    What’s accounting for the spike in ag commodities? Look at DBA. Russia’s harvest problems? Doesn’t seem like enough of a reason. But then, who needs reasons?

  18. matt1966

    Still looking for the FAS gap to fill-

  19. rainman

    Phil/Volume — Look at the volume drop in minute 2 and 3 on the DJI. They couldn’t get ANY momentum on the opening drop. Usually it drops off parabolically. This drop just went splat on the floor right to boring bot volumes.

  20. yipcarl

    MATT… This market is nuts.  How the flip or why the flip it’s being held up I’ll never know. Clearly even by the screwed gov’t numbers it’s showing hardly any improvement, what a joke. It’s only a matter of time.

  21. jomptien

    Gel, Nice pick on ARTC – looks good chartwise too. Bought some at 28.64

  22. rainman

    Phil/Wiki — hey Phil, how about a polling system on the new site? I’d be curious what the tally would be that we’re going to break out to the upside here. Might be fun to create some track records too.

  23. kinkistyle

    There’s a great reversion to mean trade happening in WFR.  Of course the minute I try it, its gonna breakout of course.

  24. loopy

    Phil how would you protect a large PM holding through Jan 11

  25. rainman

    There goes oil.

  26. matt1966

    Damn, the bots already have the market well under control.  May not get the gap completely filled.  Just more BS.  But, you can’t fight it-  This has nothing to do with value.  Just anticipated liquidity being added to the market.

  27. exec

    Bots are going to take it green.

  28. Maya1

    Maya1
    August 5th, 2010 at 12:26 am | Permalink  
    Phil,
    Greetings from the west coast….late your time
    Keeping with the learning theme, if I want to protect a large position in AAPL, short term, ie 1-2 months, how’s this trade…
    Buy the Aug $250 puts for $1.66 and pay for them with Sept $230 puts (Ha, SELLING now) now $1.72.
    Then wait and see and reevaluate in Sept?
    This, I think gets me through the near term turbulence without being out of the stock….

  29. rainman

    exec/bots — nah, I think we end near flat or at least end tomorrow just below 10,700 to attempt a pop Monday. This just looks too much like a setup to go higher to me.

  30. yipcarl

    Rain… It really does.  However if that happens it will be a big time head fake that many I assume will get sucked into.

  31. jvest

    Phil/YRCW – if I recall, you had set a 30 cent stop loss. Does that mean you’re out of the stock for good?

  32. fortep

     Phll—good morning!! I noticed that VLO is right around the top of it’s range, at least back to early July and also back up to it’s 200 MA which seems to be resistance back to around the middle of May. Are you looking at that and if so, if it breaks or fails, what does that imply for oil? BTW, thanks on the GLD advice from yesterday. I took it.

  33. rainman

    yip/fake — you might be right but I wouldn’t take that bet until I saw where the momentum takes it. If they get enough, 10,700 becomes support. They obviously couldn’t get the momentum this morning to take it down. Might as well try up next.

  34. hanna5

     Wow. PCLN is like the energizer bunny. Hope someone here was in it….

  35. yipcarl

    Rain… I hear you, my conviction is either going to kill me or it’s going to vindicate me.  I’m not often net short, I’m normally in cash at the end of everyday like JRW but sometimes I take positions and take a break from the daily grind..  I’m short here waiting. I’ve been shocked wrong before but if we aren’t under 10200 before the end of August I will be shocked and losing.

  36. kinkistyle

    PCLN is completely overvalued.  Should be at the top of any short-sell list.

  37. yodi

    Phil
    PCLN Aug strangle 300/230 for 4.45  your thoughts pls thks

  38. hanna5

     yip – i’m with you, net short now. I was thinking of covering today in prep for tommorows job numbers…what are you thinking about that number? I’m worried about upside risk…

  39. jromeha

    Kink – you could say that about many stocks. Im not shortselling PCLN and wont sell any naked calls until it reaches 300.

  40. ajaytoo

     Phil / POT – On a tear from 85 to 115! Any good plays here? Also, should I close out my Sep 90 naked puts, now .41? Feels like free money now, but why risk it with 6+ weeks to go?

  41. ajaytoo

    Top 0.001% are starting to feel generous :)  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38556042/ns/us_news-giving/

  42. Phil

    Banks/Loopy - This is one of the things I’ll be pushing hard for next week when I go to DC.  If the banks aren’t willing to lend the government needs to start lending.  We have an SBA – it’s been totally declawed and privatized but the mechanisms can be taken back and we can funnel money to small businesses that way.  The same goes with my homeowner bailout idea (government buying part of your home to reduce principal – same moeny goes to bank but there’s a bonus stimulus for homeowner).  It is a lack of leadership more than anything, that is holding us down – it’s easy to create jobs, you can hire 5M people tomorrow at $50,000 a year each by authorizing $20Bn a month in spending (and net of tax revenues it’s $14Bn) - the trick is to create jobs that last and sustain themselves without costing the government $250Bn every year.

    UN/Jdub – Yeah, that was very disappointing.  Looks like we’re in a recession, doesn’t it?  Austerity is fine for the EU but won’t work well in the US and it won’t work well at all if everyone does it at once.   If emerging markets (25% of GDP) can keep growing at 7% (1.75% per year) then all the rest of us have to do is pull out about 1% growth and the whole planet is in pretty good shape.  That is possible with EU austerity and US status quo but not if we both are on austerity.

    FAS/Matt – XLF couldn’t crack $15 – that’s the line to watch.  $14.50 is their breakdown zone so a very tight (2%) range. 

    BHI/Loopy – Good, solid, long-term play.  I’d hedge it and keep it.  I don’t know what your entry is but you can sell 2012 $35 puts for $4.80 and $45 calls for $7.20 and that’s $12 off so about $31/33 net with a $14 upside from the current price (42% in 18 months) and about the same amount of discount to current if put to you – what’s not to like? 

    RVSB/Loopy – A $22M bank?  We have members with trading accounts bigger than their deposit base!  What’s the excitement about them?

    Mattress/Yodi – Current position is Dec $108 puts (now $6.50) naked.  We want to 1/2 cover at least over the weekend but there is not need to recover during the week if we’re below 10,700.

    RIG/42L – They were right on target with out $55 backspread, which was selling 5 Aug $55s for $1.85 ($925) and buying 3 Nove $60s for $2.85 ($855).  The Aug calls are now $1.90 ($950) and the Nov $60s are $4 ($1,200) so this trade can be shut down at a profit right now (and that’s what you do if you are tight on margin as we reload for the next earnings play) or you can be patient and possibly pick up $900 instead of net $250 assuming the Augs expire and you retain $3 on the Novembers. 

    Oops, new round of selling begins into Europes close!

  43. yipcarl

    Hanna…Hard question to answer, I haven’t perfected it yet.  I’m staying short because if I attempt to jump on I feel it will be to fast and to late.  I feel that even if it beats and we jump above 10700 I feel strongly we won’t stay there.  I’m playing August for at least a dip back to 10200.  If I’m wrong I’ll lose a lot of money if I’m right I’ll make a lot…
    Furthermore they can’t cook or screw those numbers up way beyond what’s right but I still don’t see we see any improvement.

  44. yipcarl

    Phil…. even is declaring we are in a recession, can someone tell the market please?

  45. Pharmboy

    NWBO – putting an order in for 95c.  1/4 entry.

  46. yodi

    Phil RIG Aug 55 c is 3.40 not 1.90 or do I read wrong??

  47. yipcarl

    The VIX is PUZZLING.

  48. roma_

    Phil,
    RIG is 57 and
    Aug $55 is 3.5 now

  49. shadowfax

    IWM 66 @ $1.33

  50. gel1

    jomptien/ARTC
    Thanks, yes I feel very good about that one. As they expand into other specialties, I see a lot of growth.

  51. acobra65

    Phil:
     
    I like your idea about individual mortgage reduction by direct government intervention and about small business lending.  I will show you how to "turbo charge" those 2 ideas from a study I did of both those problems 15 months ago.  BIG PROBLEM… as long as the banks control lending and product development (30  year mortgage – BS) these problems will not be solved.  I AGREE that leadership and thinking outside the box are lacking.

  52. Phil

    DBA/Chaps – All Russia.  Wheat is flying up and that’s good enough reason for speculators, who are getting bored with gold. 

    Volume/Rainman – Yes, holding the floors is encouraging but no way they hold if NFP fails tomorrow and we have a huge gap to fill back to 10,450. 

    Polling/Rain – I think they have quickie polling links we can create anytime but I’ve never tried it.   Fun idea to try on the weekend if anyone knows a good polling site. 

    WFR/Kinki – What’s the mean?  The low average of $11.50 or the toppy average of $17?  Either way, I love them at $9.50! 

    PM/Loopy – Very iffy as are all dividend stocks coming into the tax debates.  I think when (okay, "if") the Dems keep control in November, people like Gel will liquidate their holdings and go to cash, fearing its the last time they’ll ever get a shot at 15% capital gains.  So I’m not thinking I’d feel comfortable in PM  at all here, near the ATH and I would protect it by cashing it out or selling Jan $50s for $3.75 and cross my fingers and hope that’s enough. 

    AAPL/Maya – As long as you REALLY don’t mind being assigned AAPL for $230 in September (taking into account that something bad must have happened for them to drop over 10%) then it’s a fine trade but as a functional trade – the difference between the deltas is .10 so why don’t you just buy the Jan $270/230 bear call spread for $16.50 and sell the 2012 $300s for $31.50 as that protects you from a $40 drop through January and puts $15 in your pocket, which you can use for another spread in 2012.  If you are looking to stay in AAPL long-term and just protect against a small dip, that’s probably cheaper and easier.

    YRCW/Jvest – Never say never but we were in for .14 avg, sold 1/2 at .30 (free ride) and selling the rest at .30 was a huge gain while sitting here like idiots as they drop back to .14 would just make us idiots, right?  If they get back to .14, I’ll be very interested again (unless fundies change) or if they break over .40 and hold it.  Either way, very relaxing to watch patiently it with a .30 gain locked in cash. 

    VLO/Fortep – It’s not about the price of oil, it’s about the "crack spread" differential between the price of oil ($84 per 42 gallon barrel is $2 per gallon) and what they can sell refined products for.  USUALLY, the higher the price of oil, the higher the price of refined products and the more spread they can shove through but there’s a lag as it goes through the system so rising oil prices first help VLO if gas and distillates rise with oil but their warehoused average is still low but then begins to hurt them if there is resistance on the demand side and margin pressure begins to hit them on the back end.  So, lots of variables to consider and they are going to be low for a while until the economy picks up.  I simply like them at $16.50 for a long-term play that makes a great hedge on inflation and, of course, constant options to sell for great returns while we wait. 

    PCLN/Hanna – Madness!

  53. kinkistyle

    WFR/Phil:  At the moment it looks like its trading around the magic 9.5 number.  Lots of action in the mornings up or down 0.10, then robots take over and bring it back to 9.5.  Not that I think it will last, but its just been happening for the past week.

  54. rainman

    News on VECO? or are the shorts playing it again?

  55. kinkistyle

    PCLN/jromeha:  Oh I don’t think anybody should try and step on a launching rocket.  But the price action just seems like an outlier compared to the rest of the consolidating market.  I mean it has a 40 point  (18%) gap.    I just personally don’t think Priceline should be outperforming AAPL, AMZN and every other tech company in the market…  maybe its just me.

  56. rainman

    Phil/Gap — hmmmm… did we gap from 10,450? I seem to remember it that way but my daily and 5day/5min says different. It shows us opening on Aug 2 without a gap. Damn… Not only do I have CRS (Can’t Remember Sh*t) I have something worse that makes me remember things that didn’t happen like a gap up on the 2nd! I thought we gapped there too! Is someone rewriting history?

  57. jdbs13

    I know the Nikkei underperformance has been a topic of discussion lately and this article suggests that the Nikkei leads the S&P at market tops and also touches on the inflation/deflation debate. I’m admittedly bearish but if the correlations between the S&P, 10 Year, and Nikkei recouple, look out below
    http://pragcap.com/the-warning-from-intermarket-correlations.

  58. jromeha

    Rainman – according to TOS’ news on the sidebar CITI attributes the decline to an article in "Commercial Times" stating that Flat Panel makers are cutting their orders to LED makers but they maintain a "buy" rating on it. I’m buying  now for a daytrade.

  59. tuscadog

    Phil / ISM services yesterday    Got to be nervous about shorting tomorrow’s payroll # based on the strength in services yesterday.  It’s apparently 80% of small bus job creation so might produce a positive # tomorrow?  Thoughts?

  60. txchili

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    Phil
    I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. Many are going to get called away Aug 21.
     I did some buy/writes July 22 for Jan. 2011 to pick up PFE, VZ, VLO, ABT, BA. Some of these have popped with earnings so I did the Phil rule #1 Take money #2 Run on those where I had made 50-70% of the returns in 12 days out of the 185 to Jan.
    In June I did the TZA Jan 2011 4/10 spread hedge so I have some downside protection ITM that is not needed now and am keeping it. Net of all this activity very bearish now, but with a big cash smile.
    My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. I know you suggest using naked puts to get stocks, but many of these had a nice run up to my call strikes and I may wait for pullback to place the put orders. I am looking at doing some Jan 2012s also. From my real estate experience I know that you make the money when you buy right :) and collect it when you sell.
    What would you advise for getting long again. I realize my timing was very good on these trades and many stocks were near the lows I liked so its harder now to find entries. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us.

  61. alik

    Phil, I did not understand: are you still bullish on DBA, or it is too late to get in?

  62. jromeha

    Alik -  Just my opinion but If you feel bullish on Ags I would go with either directly investing in futures (pretty dangerous now with all so high), or invest in the Ag plays like Mon/Mos/AGU/Pot ect….

  63. gel1

    Phil
    You have metione on a couple of recent occasions that you are soon going to DC. I have to ask: are you consulting with a committee or even better Geithner. I think this would be a breakthrough for the entire country, if they would start listening to those who have a strong economic backgroud – with real life experience.. My fear is you will be offered a full time job, leaving us to fend for ourselves. Say it ain’t so.!
     
    The banks, as we all know are not lending and taking the risks that are a working part of their franchise.  Why take risk if you can just buy treasuries, and make a nice profit on the arbitrage? This is where the government can bring change to the behavior currently followed by the banks. Since the government has regulatory power in banking practices – why not limit the ratio of lending capital to exclude treasuries? The current practice of allowing the banks to abdicate their primary purpose and responsibility - ie lending to the private sector, is like feeding a kid nothing but candy, because it tastes better. 

  64. yipcarl

    Phil….I didn’t see you comment on the European close…I don’t think anyway. Boy did they give up their gains…thoughts?

  65. shadowfax

    yip
    Europe closed up or down you choose =0000

  66. Phil

    PCLN/Yodi – My thoughts are: Whuck?  You are going to pay $4.45 of your hard-earned money to bet PCLN goes over $300 or under $230 in 2 weeks?  I don’t like long strangles at the best of times (you are the sucker we sell to!) but AFTER earnings is the strangest time to enter it.  What big event is coming up for them that will send them 5% up or 20% down that you are betting on?

    POT/Ajay – The only POT plays I like are shorting them when they get too high but the Russia thing justifies this move and I’m comfortable with them at $85 so I will hope for $200 where I will short the hell out of them but maybe sooner.  As to playing them, I’d be comfy with the $90 puts although, of course, a stop at .60 is a good idea or, of course, very easy to justify cashing .40 and freeing the margin for something more productive. 

    Recession/Yip – The markets ARE trading like we’re in a recession, Yip.  Again, this is the big picture thing you are missing.  A recession is NOT a Depression.  It’s a dip like the 26 recessions we’ve had before (2 consecutive quarters of contraction) and is NO BIG DEAL and DOES NOT justify a 50% drop in the markets off the highs.  Forget the lows, the lows are what were ridiculous and based on no fundamentals whatsoever.  I’m very simply looking at the highs (S&P 1,560) and assuming that perhaps 1/2 of the people who bought the S&P from 1,000 in 2003 to 1,560 in 2007 were just complete idiots who had no idea how to value companies (plus we know financial and commodity earnings were BS) and overpaid and that takes us down to S&P 1,280 and THEN I apply a 20% discount to that and I am pretty comfortable (as was pretty much everyone on the planet earth since 2003) buiying the S&P at 1,000 as a floor.  Of course, 2003 was also a low and we’ve really been trading over 1,000 since 1998, when the global GDP was $40Tn, vs $58Tn now (up 45%).  That’s a hell of a trend you are betting against!

    Here’s the TERRIBLE impact that the recession has had on global GDP – Quick, stock up the fallout shelter!!!!  8-)

    RIG/Yodi, Roma - On my bad, I was looking at the weeklies.  In that case, it’s 5 at $3.35 x 5 ($1,675) vs 3 at $4.10 in Nov ($1,230) and it has to be ridden out.  RIG is at $56.96 and there’s no need to do anything with it now with so long to roll but, if they break $57.50, it would be prudent to add at least 2 more Nov $60s.  Even if added at $4.50, that’s still an average of $4.26 per long ($2,130) offset by the $1,675 sale so net $4.55 on the spread and the goal is to roll the Aug $55s out and up until they expire worthless and hope to retain more than .91 per share.  Sept $57.50s are $3.30 so figure that we can roll it $2.50 per month so, even if RIG keeps heading higher, worst case is you end up in a vertical.  Probably will be a moot point at $55 seems about right given the earnings and guidance. 

    VIX/Yip – No one is worried – that is a bit strange.

    Turbo/Acobra – I’ll be very interested in discussing later.

    Gap/Rain – Very interesting.  I think we caught them red handed this time.  Look at that "non-gap" Dow chart and then look at the DIA chart (5-day) from Friday to Monday.  This is getting kind of funny as clearly those index charts are being presented in a more bullish fashion than they should be!  Here’s the chart of REALITY, as remembered by you and I but now altered for public consumption:

    Correlations/Jdb – Could be look out above if it goes the other way.  Nikkei move is all currency related right now.  Japan is almost pure export economy and strong Yen is terrible for them and the Yen is at a 15-year high and the Nikkei is at a 15-year low.  It’s not complicated and has nothing to do with charts or coupling really, just the math of the exchange rates (but, then again – it’s ALL connected in the end, isn’t it?).

    Tomorrow/Tusca – No way would I speculate short into tomorrow other than covering long plays, just in case the number blows it.  Clearly there are bets being placed all week that we have a great report tomorrow although, in the big picture, I have trouble considering anything less than 500,000 jobs added per month to be no major improvement as it would take 2 years at that rate just to get back what’s been lost. 

  67. tuscadog

    Phil / Washington visit.   The key word is structural.  Spending doesn’t change our weak fundamentals, it just grows the deficit and pushes the structural employment disaster down the road.  The Pickens plan is on the shelf, could employ millions and crush the trade deficit.  (The economics are still not ready on solar Phil, that can be phase 2 in a few yrs time).
    Unfortunately, I suspect we’ll need a collapse before we can politically adopt more selfish mercantalism which ends the ‘free trade’ disaster and recommences manufacturing in the USA.  People are suprisingly apathetic about our trade issues (which means jobs), probably because the top 1% benefit greatly from keeping a lid on this debate and disenfranchsing 25% of our population from good jobs and benefits by moving their sourcing offshore.
    I don’t see how we can get a GDP read that will end our employment disaster without political initiatives to address the trade imbalance.  We don’t need any houses or CRE construction (and accompanying banking bs) for years.  So, the location of manufacturing and energy production will determine whether or not we (or China, Saudi Arabia, etc) have sustainable growth.  Obama should stop the bs about exports doubling.  Won’t happen as ‘they’ don’t want to import (mercantalism).  All we really need is some import substitution and, as the best endowed, largely self sufficient, continental economy in the world, we’ll do just fine.

  68. yodi

    PPhil
    August 5th, 2010 at 12:21 pm | Permalink  
    PCLN/Yodi – My thoughts are: Whuck?  You are going to pay $4.45 of your hard-earned money to bet PCLN goes over $300 or under $230 in 2 weeks?  I don’t like long strangles at the best of times (you are the sucker we sell to!) but AFTER earnings is the strangest time to enter it.  What big event is coming up for them that will send them 5% up or 20% down that you are betting on?
    Phil surely we have our wires crossed I sell insurance seldom buy so It is my intention to SELL the above thks

  69. Jbur

    Phil, crazy interest rate policies and the unbelievable rush to the "safe haven" of US bonds the past five months has lost me $ in TBT. Time for me to reevaluate my positions.
    I have 30 Jan 36/40 bull call spreads, and have 20 short Jan 12 40 puts (didn’t get my price on the other 10). These are positions after multiple rolls and 18K net losses, which we were hoping to recoup.
    I’m not sure the Jan bull call spreads have chance of paying off in full, and am thinking of just closing them out.
    The Jan 12 40 puts have a better chance of paying off, and I was thinking of collecting premium against them… ?
    Your thought would be appreciated.

  70. trice

    No way would I speculate short into tomorrow other than covering long plays, just in case the number blows it.  Clearly there are bets being placed all week that we have a great report tomorrow although, in the big picture, ////       so are you bullish tomorrow ? dont you think we could tank tomorrow and its worth a short play?

  71. humvee4me

    Recession:  I wish this were just an ordinary recession, but its not and that’s the problem and I think our mess is a big deal.  We’ve got a perfect storm of residential and commercial real estate collapse, zero interest rates, precious metal hoarding, threats of governmental debt default and a trillion dollar deficit.  I would say It is a big deal.   I believe that the biggest hurdle we have to overcome is the change in psychology that’s happened; we Americans have been stunned by this. 

  72. JRW III

    Good morning, I’m traveling today,

     

    IWM 64.70, 65.43, 65.63, 65.80, 65.97, 66.22, and 66.89

     

    Good hunting !!

  73. gel1

    txchili
    You stated you have done some naked put selling. I really like that strategy for entering stocks I want long term, particularily if the VIX has some muscle.  I really like Phil’s buy/write strategy when we feel the market is headed up, as you basicaly receive a double discount on your entry, with some protection built in as you have the option of adjustment through rolling the options. Looking forward, I see the VIX climbing over the next few months, most certanly so if we do not get the QE that I think is coming.

  74. jdub929

     Phil,
    Wanted to comment on a couple of things:
    PCLN- I bought a Sept 280 straddle yesterday and exited out with a $95/spread profit.  I have an order in for a Sept 290/270 strangle.  I don’t like buying options betting on volatility BUT for PCLN, I looked at how this reacted in the days after it reports earnings the past 4 Qs and it has moved (even if you exclude the earnings report around the flash crash days).  I don’t know about a 300/230 strangle though.
    VIX-I’ve been looking at the VXV(vol. index for 3 mo.) and it is trading at a 17% premium to the VIX.  I don’t have historical knowledge of how these 2 interact and how the VXV effectively predicts future volatility.  I know you don’t like buying the VIX but wanted to get your thoughts on this. 
    Thanks!

  75. gel1

    shadowfax
    I have a question for regarding Apple iMac computers. I understand they are soon going to upgrade their monitors to "Cinema quality"  Do you have any news on this changover?  If anyone knows – the shadow knows. Thanks!

  76. humvee4me

    Gel:  you are still thinking QE is coming right?  Isn’t that going to be a positive for stocks and hence a neg for VIX?

  77. jdbs13

    LVS may be an interesting short here.  I’m already short and gotten run over a bit but now it’s at the top of it’s range and unless it can recover this may be the big reversal day as it’s gotten smacked down to around 28.60 from 29.40 two hours ago
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=lvs
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=lvs

  78. humvee4me

    Has anyone here viewed a movie sitting on DBox seats, which are active seats with motion per the movie.  We saw Inception on the weekend and found them more a distraction than the cool feature I was hoping for.  Looking for other people’s thoughts, its a small company on the toronto exchange.

  79. acobra65

    Phil:
    Yes… on the weekend !!!

  80. shadowfax

    gel
    No word on that, not sure what they can do other than bigger screens, what would sell me is a real HD input like Windows 7.

  81. loopy

    The VIX looks like it’s been compressing since May, in the past (few years) we saw resolution in a BIG way.  I’m thinking over the next few weeks with liquidity light we may see big moves….Phil what would be a good way to play a lot of volatility but not sure on the direction?

  82. gel1

    humvee/Recession
    Oh so right you are!  The accurate unemployment number is close to 25% when you count those that are no longer looking.  The scariest of all statistics I have seen is the lack of response from the stimulus money that has been expended.  I do not believe our government has the necessary knowlege needed to formulate a vialble solution, and for this reason I can see them relying on more QE, which many economists regard as the best choice. Didn’t Biden use those same words recently, adding a few adjectives? 

  83. David Ristau

    Hey all,

    We have a new Overnight Trade in Brooks Automation (BRKS). The company looks poised to make a nice gain. 

    We are looking to make a nice gain into tomorrow morning. 

    Check out my analysis, etc. here!

    Good Investing!

  84. gmarts

    Man, botworld is a boring planet, no buyers, no sellers, just machines playing Pong all day.

  85. gel1

    shadowfax .. thanks. The "back alley" rumor I heard was the technology upgrade they had innovated for the screen quality, might soon be added to their computers,  A Windows 7 option would be awsome, as some of the platforms I run are not Apple OS compatable.

  86. shadowfax

    jel1
    There are  a few things they can do but all made little to no difference in the home theater scene. They could expand the LED backlighting to inable local dimming, faster shallower LCD’s for wider viewing angles, and way out there, owner/professional gray scale and color correction requiring expensive test gear. Maybe a plasma? No word on any of this.

  87. Jbur

    shadowfax- I’m still chuckling about "Graybar Hotel"!!

  88. rn273

    Buying IWM Sept 66 monthly puts @ 2.8, selling Aug 65 weekly (expiring tomorrow) for 0.37 for 10% discount if IWM closes above 65 tomorrow; else roll over to next week.

  89. rn273

    I meant 13%

  90. ban2

     Hi
     
    Phil
    had bought 50 DIA Aug 100p as insurance hedge @ 1.13 now @ .26. they did their job should I roll these to something else at this point or wait for inevitable drop between now and opex?
    Also short 20 BAC Aug 15 @.66 now 1.05 sugg. here would be appreciated
    Way back also did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11  26 P @ 4.3 now .85 —  sold half. this am — any sugg. on other half?
    paid for a years sub AGain!!  thank you very much 

  91. loopy

    Does any one have a recommendation about where to buy a trading station (computer and monitors) ?  I’m thinking 4 screens to suit me. 

  92. kwan

    Gel – you know OS X runs windows 7? I use parallels and windows XP on OS X to run a few scientific platforms that are windows specific. Works great.

  93. Jtiff

     Phil- I’ve been sitting on an SDS Sept 35/40 bull call spread as a hedge.  Do you recommend an adjustment or just let it sit?

  94. arubenstein

    Phil,
    JTX at 96 cents?

  95. rainman

    Phil/Gap — Phewww…. Thanks, I was getting ready to go see the shrink for a frontal lobotomy! I don’t mind market manipulation but I don’t like mind manipulation.  Now you see it. Now you don’t!

  96. stjeanluc

    Phil, not sure if you touched on that news yet:

    China’s banking regulator told lenders last month to conduct a new round of stress tests to gauge the impact of residential property prices falling as much as 60 percent in the hardest-hit markets, a person with knowledge of the matter said….Previous stress tests carried out in the past year assumed home-price declines of as much as 30 percent.
    The tougher assumption may underscore concern that last year’s record $1.4 trillion of new loans fueled a property bubble that could lead to a surge in delinquent debts. Regulators have tightened real-estate lending and cracked down on speculation since mid-April, after residential real estate prices soared 68 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
    Maybe a little bump on the road there….

  97. Pharmboy

    and to follow on stjean’s post:
     
    Chinese Banks: A Reality Check

    Eye-popping market capitalizations and slick rebranding notwithstanding, Chinese state-owned banks are a financial disaster that makes the U.S. current subprime sector look like a rounding error. Estimates of bad loans on the books of China’s banks by the leading rating agencies in the world range from 40% to 60% of China’s current GDP. That would be the equivalent of about $5.6 to $8.4 trillion of bad loans in the U.S. banking system in a $14 trillion economy. By way of comparison, the U.S. Savings & Loan scandal of the early 1990s cost the U.S government less than 3% of GDP. No wonder that Moody’s Global Credit Research rated the average bank financial strength rating of E+ for Chinese banks, one of the lowest on Moody’s global scale. Yet the irony of the focus on Chinese banks’ exposure to U.S. subprime loans, which Moody’s estimates to be a mere $13.5 billion, has eluded the mainstream media.

    How did Chinese banks get into this mess? Investors forget that China is a Communist, centrally planned economy — complete with five-year plans. As in all centrally planned economies, China’s state-owned banks’ role is to bankroll the government’s massive infrastructure projects and to keep otherwise bankrupt, state-owned enterprises afloat. That’s why state-owned enterprises account for 25% of gross domestic product, but receive 65% of loans. Credit management problems, a lack of qualified staffers and deep-rooted corruption are more characteristic of China’s banks than world-beating financial savvy.

  98. Pharmboy

    TXRH – look at the option volume in Dec 12.5 -15 C.  Gonna try for a few 15c for 95c.  Buying premium, so a sin by PSW standards, but worth a small gamble b’c something is going on there. 

  99. gel1

    humvee/QE
    Correct… If we get another dose of QE ( maybe as soon as August 10th ), then the equity markets will surely fly up, and the VIX will drop. The USD will also drop. If the markets drop on the news (unlikely), then the USD and JPY will go up.

  100. savitri

    Pharmboy
    liked your call on NWBO--any past posts on this?
    Tx

  101. gel1

    kwan… your guidance regarding the compatability of OS X and Windows 7 using parallels is music to my ears.  Thanks. I need to retire my Sony with Vista sooner than later.

  102. rainman

    loopy/computers — if you’re tech savvy, Newegg.com. is hard to beat.

  103. Jbur

    rainman- speaking of Newegg, I just bought a 23" monitor from there yesterday. $169.00, no tax, no shipping!

  104. Pharmboy

    NWBO/sav – no posts yet, as they were brought up by gel a while ago.  Some were in a bit earlier, but I think they may fall back down a bit.  I will work on something for the coming week or so on them and a few other smaller more speculative plays.  I am not much of a spec fan, as the few that looked good are not so good now…

  105. RMM

    Phil: what trade on PFE would you do ?

  106. savitri

    TX

  107. gel1

    Pharm/NWBO
    I am still with you on that one – it is in my P & P portfolio (patience and persistance)

  108. savitri

    I might go for it also--speculative like for me

  109. shadowfax

    gel1
    GET RID of vista the worst windows ever if nothing else just by windows 7 as your computer is fast enough very little change, if you get the professional version you can use it on lots of computers and it doesn’t come with a new machine.

  110. shadowfax

    gel
    I f you buy a Mac you need to buy Parellels $100 and Windows 7 anyway. Buy windows 7 first you may be satisfied.

  111. 1020

    Gel – Sony with Vista??  Do you blend protien shakes or mow a lawn with that?  j/k  :)

  112. blue

    Phil,     HMSY has been trading in a channel for a while and is approaching the lower level of that channel.    Do you like HMSY and is there a trade here that you like?

  113. 1020

    Gel – When you settle on a computer, check on Amazon as well. Newegg is one of their sellers and you can compare – most times – to other sellers Amazon has……

  114. bobhu

    " if you get the professional version you can use it on lots of computers"???
     
    I doubt that.  As my info(20+ years with computer build business)…one os for one computer by MSFT.

  115. Phil

    Getting long/TxChili – Thanks for the good words!  Glad to hear things are working for you.  I’m going to be happy to get long once we pop our levels and hold them for a few days.  There’s no reason we shouldn’t be able to retest our highs (mentioned in above post) on a good, bullish run.  Meanwhile, our targets will flip to smaller, more aggressive stocks, more like our May Watch List but focusing on companies that missed earnings and got beaten up or are still lagging the indices, but we like them for long-term recoveries in a strong market (eg. BYD, RIMM, WFR, VLO…). 

    DBA/Alik – I don’t really like chasing them right now.  The sum total of wheat in the world is not that damages, it’s just now misallocated as Russia will have to declare "Force Majeure" on contracts but then prices will settle down once all the legitimate buyers roll out.  If you want to play DBA up now, better off playing the people who use wheat as an input cost down (but I don’t have anything particular coming to mind at the moment). 

    DC/Gel – I still do some consulting but, sadly, also generally have to maintain confidentiality so just like to say "I know a guy, who knows a guy who I will be talking to."  I’ve been in and out of that place enough times to be able to insure you there isn’t anything they can offer me that will get me to stay.  I usually make 2 trips a year down there.  I’ve said before, only the position of Caesar appeals to me – I need full dicatorial powers to enact the legislation I think needs to be done to fix this mess but I do enjoy planting seeds to see what grows over time.  I agree on banks – they are simply not acting in the public interest but you surely realize that this "free money" game we are playing with the banks is necessary to cover up the still-gaping holes in their balance sheets if we ever go from mark-to-fantasy back to somthing that has even a semblance of marking to market. 

    EU close/Yip – Oh thanks, I forgot.  Flat, which is pretty much the lows of the day.  No reason to expect better over here unless Mr. Stick is POSITIVE we have those jobs numbers in the bag. 

    Structure/Tusca – That’s where I think guys like us can help.  We know how to build things that create jobs.  As to solar, the subsidy level for solar is no worse than the subsidy level for nat gas conversions – both don’t work unless someone subsidizes the up-front cost.  On the solar side, as part of my dicatorial powers, I would simply have a 2.5M-man "solar task force" whose job it is to produce (in this country) and insall solar panels on every viable roof in this nation within 10 years.  As I mentioned above (and you can tell I’ve been doing the math), it’s net $7Bn a month (of taxes paid back in) for the payroll (far less if you consider most of these people are collecting unemployment anyway) and, if the average home pays $400 a month for electricity/heat then all you have to do is convert 17.5M homes and the program begins paying for itself.  Figure 1M people doing installs in 5-man crews taking 1 week per home is 10M homes converted in year one and we’re break-even in year 2 and profitable in year 3.  Not a bad use of government funding, is it?  Taking 10% of our homes off the grid will take off pressure on that nightmare and cut our fuel imports by about 500Kbd per year to 5Mbd at full conversion – that has immediate benfits too and, if we do it right, we are funneling enough cash into the solar industry that we create a basis for us to become a global leader there. 

    PCLN/Yodi - Then I love it!  That would be a short strangle, not a strangle.

    TBT/Jbur – We are in retreat mode there.  "2012 or Bust" is out new mantra (and hopefully we don’t bust!).  The 2012 $40 puts are 50% premium so not really worth doing anything with unless you want to roll them to 2x the $30 puts ($2.95), which would cost you $1 per 20 current ($2K) but a much nicer margin of error (or 30 of the $35 puts, now $5 is closer to an even roll but $5 more cushion).  On the $36/40 bull call spreaad.  You can roll the Jan $36 calls to the 2012 $40 calls for $1.75 and that buys you another year.  If TBT goes up, you have a year to roll the callers and if the callers expire worthless, you can sell June $40s (or whatever) for $1.50 and use that money to roll the the $35s.

    Tomorrow/Trice – I stand by my QID and SDS plays from earlier this week.  I just don’t see any point in going crazy on downside betting into what is, essentialy, a random number tomorrow. 

    Ordinary/Humvee – It’s always something.  I’m not trying to be flippant about it but we have run-ups and bubbles and catastrophes all the time.  Remeber the S&L crisis?  That time was going to be different as was the .com crash (banks had lent them money, investors lost everything, the vernture capital industry collapsed) and 9/11, which was going to bring an end to global trade and destroy the world economy with $500 oil and $10,000 gold and other unaffordable, ridiculous nonsense.   So if "this time is different" is really different this time, I think we’ll see it coming in a fairly non-subtle way and you won’t have to dig through data or come up with theories to "prove" that things are not as good as they look to foolish investors who think the World won’t be ending next year. 

    Travel/JRW – Good day for it, markets are unplayable.

    VIX/Jdub – It’s pretty thinly traded so it’s a straight-up sentiment bet.  I would say it’s a good premise that VXV is closer to "correct" than the VIX but VXV is backward-looking and VIX is forward looking and both are fairly meaningless in guaging what will happen tomorrow.  The VIX has not gone below 20 since April and, if it does, the bears better scurry back to their caves for the duration because what it mainly tells you is that no one is buying puts (no fear) and while we seem to have an easy time moving the fear guage from 20-30, it tends to take a lot more to scare people from 15-20. 

    AAPL/Gel – I did have a conversation in the AAPL store and the guy told me they don’t make anything less than 24" anymore and most of their monitors are now in the giant-sized realm, which I guess would mean their Cinema displays.  Don’t forget Apple TV is still a laggard for AAPL and I’m sure Jobs wants to make sure that EVERY APPL owner will have access to the next version. 

    LVS/Jdbs – They are always a tempting short but their numbers are completely made up depending on whether Shelly is buying or selling the stock that quarter.  He hasn’t sold in a while and the last time he bought it was 25M shares (10% of float) at about $3 in March of last year.  If he hasn’t sold yet (no indications he has), I don’t think I’d bet against him despite what the TA may seem to indicate. 

    DBox/Humvee – Sounds like fun but probably only once….

    Volatility/Loopy – You can just go with something simple like DIA. Oct $112s for $1 and the $95 puts for $1.05 on the basis that a big move up (500 points) brakets your delta from about .16 to .32 while a move down drops your delta from .16 to .08 so you make more on one side than you lose on another on any big move less theta decay so it’s only good for about 2 weeks before the time starts eating into the plan but if you plan on scaling into the losing side, you can manage it effectively for about a month.   This is a fun play to paper trade and get used to as it’s always an option when the markets are at inflection points.  You can also get fancy and sell against it, like the Aug $110s for .22 and the Aug $98 puts for .15 to offset your Theta.  Of course, if the VIX goes up, you can win on both ends so it’s better if things drop. 

    Unemployment/Gel – I mentioned yesterday my "no home shopping" theory and you have to consider how many people were employed, not because they needed to work, but because they were saving up for a new home.  Since homebuying is now off most Americans’ "to do" list, it’s possible that we can be comfortable with far less workers than we had before (there was once a time when ONLY the men worked so 100M jobs would be plenty and we still have 135M people working).  All we have to do is get used to living in houses we can afford and saving up 2 years for a washing machine…  8-)

    DIA/Ban – That’s expensive insurance!  I guess I would roll the dice on tomorrow as we still haven’t popped our levels and you can’t lose much more than 75% at this point (and I assume you’d be happy to see the markets pop so big they wipe out the insurance anyway) so think of it as dead money tomorrow and, if we do pop, then you can buy your next round of insuarance much cheaper than it is today.  As to BP, it’s kind of free money if you let it ride and you can just put a stop at $1.20 and forget about it unless you have something better to do with the margin than make .85 in 6 months.

    Station/Loopy – Someone had a nice link 2 days ago I think, that or Monday.  Unless you are in a big city, I doubt there are going to be stores where you can go, most of that stuff is mail order.  As I mentioned then, I ran into a processing power issue (or maybe it was the video processor) with my many streaming things so I have a 3 screeen main PC with a 30" Mac Cinema display flanked by 2 24" Dells and then I run Esignal on a lapop (which has another screen on it as well) and I run ETrade Pro on an IMac on the other side.  Since all I do with Esignal 90% of the time is type in a ticker symbol, it doesn’t bother me at all to have another keyboard there and all I do on the Mac with Etrade is click on my watch list and change the chart times so pretty much all mouse and if I use the keyboard once a day it’s an event.   So the short story is, think about HOW you are trading and how you envsion your set-up more so than some monitor configuration.  For me, the most important thing of all is my IE with tabs because I run about 20+ tabs on 5 monitors with 3 full-page displays on the middle monitor (wide-screen) and one on each side monitor so I have 20 monitors worth of stuff available to me on my main keyboard and mouse with 5 things viewed at any one time (not counting pop-up windows).

    SDS/Jtiff – As tomorrow is a random event, I don’t see the point in putting in more cash.  Do keep in mind that 35 is a 5% S&P move away so once 1,070 begins to look unrealistic – just get out.  You can get quite a bit more bearish for $1 by rolling down to the $31s but it would suck if we’re up 2.5% tomorrow on strong jobs and, if we do get a run-up for a silly reason – a cheaper roll awaits you tomorrow.

    JTX/Aruben – I don’t quite know how recoverable they are as they were not great margined and they had about half of their RAL (Refund Anticipated Loans) business dropped last year as they blew a huge bank contract.  If they lost it, it’s lost and they aren’t likely to bounce back soon but, on the other hand, they have a new thing with WMT and they wouldn’t be the first company to get rich working with them!  At $27M I don’t think it’s a waste to toss some money at them but it is certainly a gamble.  Of course, you can buy them for .88 and sell Jan $1 puts and calls for .55 so net .33/67 vs. current price of .88 but make sure you are ready to go to 4x at .20 in case they blow Novemeber earnings

    China/Stjean – We had that yesterday, thanks.  Seems a little extreme but the main impact would be on commodities as the banks will continue to speculate on housing (too late to stop) but they would have to raise reserves and that means no more playing the metals futures.

    China/Pharm – Are you saying Communism is bad?  8-)

    PFE/RMM – 2012 $15calls at $2.45, selling Jan $17.50s for .57.  If PFE falls below $15, THEN you can sell 2012 $12.50 puts, now $1.12 for about $2 and that gives you a free trade with worst case you own PFE for about $12.50.  If they go up or flat, you roll the callers and/or sell some more and you have a net $1.88 entry ont he $2.50 spread.  Notice we make very different trades in a low-VIX environment (you have to work for your money). 

    HMSY/Blue – I never liked them much and certainly not after their March Q, which was pretty lame.  They bounced back in Q2 but that just makes them look uneven to me and they trade for too much growth to be giving me erratic signals.  Operating expenses were up 31% to go with a 31% increase in revenues – I don’t like that either in this environment as they should have found some way to cut costs and that makes me question the management.  I wouldn’t short them (don’t care enough to) but I also wouldn’t want them until the test the 200 dma (now $50) and hold that but, even then, not for me. 

  116. hugs4ever

    Phil:
    I want to sell some GS sept  140 puts do you think they will expire worthless?

  117. RMM

    Phil: Txs for PFE comment: what about a position in TIE ? lots of orders for airplanes.

  118. shadowfax

    bobho
    Th professional can be loaded in many just like XP that I have loaded in 4, My Win7 Pre Home no, that’s why it cost $400.

  119. RMM

    Phil: is EWJ at 9.77 a buy to take a position ?

  120. yipcarl

    Phil… I’m half messing with you.  I know what a recession is, I know how many we’ve had, and I know how long they last.  I give workshops about them.  You are saying recession, I am saying DEPRESSION.  You never see stats that foretell a depression is coming before it comes. For gos hsakes Phil most of the world was singing cum by ya as the market approached all time highs in 2007 and we were already in the middle of a recession then.  In the next 6 months the GDP reports, job reports and the like will resume the wheel barrel to hell ride and we will be in a depression that everyone can see, give it time.

  121. Pharmboy

    OK, Cramer sell stocks now……hummm….

  122. shadowfax

    JRW’s lines, even when traveling 65.80 IWM stopper for 4 hours. Thanks!

  123. RMM

    Phil: have VLO stock: what premium selling should I do ?

  124. exec

    Phil,
     
    Can you have a talk with the BOTs and tell them to pick it up a little.

  125. Phil

    08:00 AM On the hour: S&P +0.04%. 10-yr -0.01%. Euro +0.26% vs. dollar. Crude -0.46% to $82.09. Gold +0.2% to $1198.30.

    09:00 AM On the hour: S&P -0.44%. 10-yr +0.13%. Euro +0.35% vs. dollar. Crude -0.69% to $81.90. Gold +0.22% to $1198.50.

    09:30 AM At the open: Dow -0.36% to 10641. S&P -0.36% to 1123. Nasdaq -0.52% to 2292.
    Treasurys: 30-year +0.46%. 10-yr +0.19%. 5-yr +0.1%.
    Commodities: Crude -0.91% to $81.72. Gold +0.23% to $1198.60.
    Currencies: Euro +0.08% vs. dollar. Yen +0.47%. Pound -0.03%.

    10:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.31%. 10-yr +0.14%. Euro +0.04% vs. dollar. Crude -0.82% to $81.79. Gold -0.03% to $1195.60.

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.46%. 10-yr +0.19%. Euro -0.05% vs. dollar. Crude -0.58% to $81.99. Gold -0.25% to $1192.90.

    12:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.37%. 10-yr +0.33%. Euro -0.05% vs. dollar. Crude -0.56% to $82.01. Gold flat at $1195.90.

    01:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.37%. 10-yr +0.3%. Euro +0.02% vs. dollar. Crude -0.78% to $81.83. Gold +0.18% to $1198.10.

    02:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.24%. 10-yr +0.27%. Euro +0.17% vs. dollar. Crude -0.41% to $82.13. Gold +0.29% to $1199.40.

    Notable earnings after Thursday’s close: AGO, ATVI, CF, CROX, DCT, ECLP, EOG, GXP, KFT, LYV, MCHP, MRX, PKI, PSA, SAPE, SGMS, SWN, WRI

    Aug. same-store sales – A lot more misses than last month:

    (COST +6% vs. +5.5%.
    FRED +2.7% vs. +3.4%.
    LTD +12% vs. +5%.
    SSI -0.6% vs. +5%.
    BKE -9.3% vs. -1.3%.
    ZUMZ +9.4% vs. +8.7%.
    ANF +7% vs. +4%.
    AEO 0% vs. -0.1%.
    BONT -0.3% vs. +1%.
    GPS +1% vs. +0.2%.
    M +7.3% vs. +6%.
    TGT +2% vs. +2.4%.
    ARO +1% vs. +6.9%.
    CATO +2% in-line with expectation.
    KSS +4.1% vs. +4%.
    JWN +7.6% vs. +8%.
    SKS +6.4% vs. +4.8%
    BJ +2.8% vs. +4.6%.
    DDS -3% vs. +1.5%.
    HOTT -9% vs. -2.7%.
    JCP -0.6% vs. +2.2%.
    SMRT -2.6% vs. -2%.
     

    Initial Jobless Claims: +19K to 479K vs. 455K consensus. Continuing claims -34K to 4,537,000.

    EIA Natural Gas Inventory: +29 bcf vs. consensus of +34 bcf. 

    In a highly unusual move, House lawmakers agreed to return to Capitol Hill to vote on a $26B emergency aid package for state and local governments. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tweeted the news yesterday, and later issued a statement. The bill could provide $16B to offset rising Medicaid costs, and transfer $10B to local school boards to help avert layoffs.

    Update to above: The Senate votes to approve a package of $26B in aid for state and local governments, funded partly by an $11B tax increase on U.S. multinational corporations. Republicans argue that it hands U.S. corporations another reason to move more of their operations to other countries. The House is expected to take up the measure next week.

    Job demand grew 21% year-on-year in July, according to Monster Worldwide’s employment index, marking the sixth straight month of annual growth. "The fact that hiring is more robust than a year ago points to a general improvement in the nation’s hiring conditions as the economy continues its slow but steady recovery," the report said.

    Healthcare reform stretched Medicare’s viability by at least twice as long, Geithner reports, saying the government figures the program won’t run out of money until 2029 rather than 2017. But Social Security isn’t as healthy: an expected deficit of $41B this year before returning to surplus 2012-2014.

    Backpeddling as fast as he canThe U.S. faces a 25% chance of deflation and a double-dip recession, according to Mohamed El-Erian. Companies are accumulating cash and individuals are saving, making it tougher to counter deflation, he says, and that reduction in private-sector spending makes government policies to stimulate the economy less effective.

    The AAII sentiment survey reverses course again, for the bearish: Just over 38% are pessimistic, vs. 30.4% bullish and 31.4% neutral. Every week in the past month, the majority of individual investors has changed its mind about the half-emptiness (or half-fullness?) of the investing glass.

    John Paulson has turned bearish in his positions after pushing a narrative of U.S. recovery over the last year. After Paulson’s hedge funds were hit hard in Q2 by a rise in market volatility, he has cut his net long bets across almost all funds.

    The IRS said Wednesday it will overhaul its large business and international division, a shift that underscores its growing focus on international tax evasion. Studies show large corporations are using gray areas of the tax code to minimize or illegally evade billions of dollars in taxes every year.

    Bank of England maintains its key rate at 0.5%, and asset purchases at £200B. BOE’s key lending rate has been at 0.5% since March 2009.

    The ECB leaves its interest rate peg at 1%, as expected. JP Morgan’s David Mackie: "We don’t have a rate rise in our forecast horizon, and our horizon goes to the end of 2011."

    ECB’s Trichet says the euro-area economy is stronger than expected and that interest rates are "appropriate," signaling he sees no need to shift borrowing costs any time soon. “We continue to expect price developments to remain moderate,” Trichet says after the ECB set its benchmark rate at 1% for a 16th straight month. Euro +0.26% vs. dollar at $1.3186.

    Wheat futures are +8.3% to a 23-month high, after Russia, the world’s No.3 grower, said it will ban grain exports because of the country’s worst drought in at least a half century.  More wheat thoughts: The grain’s price spike could spur demand for the dollar and the loonie; trade balance is often overlooked in currency valuation, and North American producers stand to export a lot in the wake of Russia’s moratorium. Now: wheat futures +8.2%; euro is up 0.1% against dollar, down 0.1% against loonie. 

    In what could be a watershed moment for Taiwan (ETF: EWT), it said today it is exploring a trade agreement with Singapore (EWS). If not blocked by Beijing, which considers Taiwan its own, other countries will likely seek similar pacts with export-hungry Taiwan. Next up? Former colonial ruler Japan, Malaysia (EWM) or the Philippines.

    In a summer of records, mortgage rates hit yet another low, according to Freddie Mac – who says 30-year fixed rates are at 4.49%. Fifteen-year mortgages are at 3.95%. Demand is picking up for refinancing and new purchases.

    The return of the 100% LTV home loan is gathering some defenders, but not Ryan Avent: They "practically guarantee that any household misfortune will be substantially magnified." There’s no justification for the programs, he says; get a substantial down payment or don’t get a home.

    After activating 100,000 units a day in May, Google’s (GOOG) Android platform is now activating 200,000 per day, CEO Eric Schmidt says. He credits a new Motorola (MOT) Droid phone as a driving force.

    Unilever (UN -5.8%) warns of a rough second half ahead, echoing competitors who are expecting to raise spending on new products amid tough competition and higher raw material prices. The company’s second-quarter margins were up just 0.1 points to 14.7%.

    Boeing (BA -1%) customers canceled 26 new commercial aircraft orders valued at $5.8B this week, after earlier reports said that Dubai Aerospace Enterprise may be forced to cancel aircraft orders because of growing financial difficulties.

    Oracle (ORCL -0.8%) faces damages of up to $1B in the Justice Department’s software-overcharging suit, say sources who believe the company may have overbilled the government by 35% or more.

    BP (BP) will start pumping cement into its crippled well today after successfully reducing pressure by injecting mud from the top. Yesterday, the cost of insuring BP’s debt dropped below five-year premiums for the first time in two months on speculation the attempt will succeed. Separately, Transocean (RIG), which owns the exploded drilling rig, said BP may seek to avoid full contractual responsibility for the disaster. BP +3.5% premarket.

    Transocean (RIG +6.3%) says its contract with BP (BP +2.7%) protects it against fines and penalties related to the Deepwater Horizon incident, and that BP had agreed to shoulder much of the legal burden under the contract. Shares spike, shaking off a NYT story scrutinizing the company’s safety record.

    Three lunchtime reads:
    1) The poetic logic of summer stock market rallies
    2) Taibbi: Wall Street’s big win
    3) Why jobless claims will rise all year

  126. jdub929

     Mr. Stick could be making a cameo here today. $TICK now positive.  $TRIN nearing 1, CYC within striking distance of going green.  These plus GS reportedly buying about 800 /ES contracts during the lunch break.

  127. exec

    In a highly unusual move, House lawmakers agreed to return to Capitol Hill to vote on a $26B emergency aid package for state and local governments. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tweeted the news yesterday, and later issued a statement. The bill could provide $16B to offset rising Medicaid costs, and transfer $10B to local school boards to help avert layoffs.
     
    Sounds like another emergency bailout for the unions.

  128. jdub929

     And what’s the heck is up with $RINO?  

  129. bobhu

    shadowfax,
     
    You can install it doesn’t mean it’s legal, you can down almost any software over internet and works fine, are they legal??  This is an answer from MSFT about Win 7 install in mutiple computers:
     
    "
    Hello Everyone,

    A single upgrade license allows you to upgrade one machine, either 32 or 64 bit.  If you are interested in upgrading multiple machines to Windows 7 Home Premium you may want to consider the Family Pack which will be available upon General Availability.  The Family Pack will allow you to upgrade up to three machines to Windows 7 Home Premium.
     
    The EULA states the following:
     
    The Windows 7 desktop operating system software is licensed on a per copy per computer basis for consumers.  In this context, a computer is a physical hardware system with an internal storage device capable of running the software.  A hardware partition or blade is considered to be a separate computer.  Users may install one copy of the software on one computer.  That computer is the “licensed computer”.  Users may use the software on up to two processors on the licensed computer at one time.
     
    If users are considered a “Qualified Family Pack User”, they may install one copy of the software marked as “Family Pack” on three computers in their household for use by people who reside there.  The software bought may include more than one version, such as 32-bit and 64-bit.  Users may install and use only one version at one time. 

    I hope this helps."
     

    Kevin Hau MSFT, Moderator
     
    This is the link:
    http://social.answers.microsoft.com/Forums/en-US/w7install/thread/aabb3dd9-bc17-411f-b356-4b755e04e771
     
     

  130. shadowfax

    exec
    Healthcare and more so teachers in most of the country are not unionized!

  131. bobhu

    Sold few PCLN Aug, 300 Call for 4.10.
     
    Thanks. Phil

  132. Pharmboy

    If you want a little bullishness in UR portfolio, the JNJ 60 Oct/60 Aug calendar spread can be had for 73c.  Nice risk reward….and the fronts can be rolled forward…..

  133. shadowfax

    bobho
    I DID NOT say download!!!!! Isaid BUYYYYYY the PROGRAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Check back you are WRONG about what I said and misrepresented what I said to MSFT.

  134. Pharmboy

    OH, and from my writeup on JNJ, their better blood thinner with Bayer is gonna be big!  Looks like it is going to get approval.

  135. bobhu

    shadowfax,
     
    If Win 7 Pro can installed on multiple computers legally, IBM can just buy one copy and have all of their computer us it.  Is MSFT that dump??

  136. bobhu

    Take easy, shadowfax…  we just exchange information.

  137. exec

    Shadow,
     
    Are you sure about that?  In my area they’re all unionized……and the kids are dumb as f**k…….except for the Asians of course who win all the scholastic awards…….there’s hope though……they’re beginning to learn how to walk with there pants around there knees and talk like imbecile’s so the dumbing down process is almost complete!!!!

  138. jromeha

    Im sure they CAN do a stick but it would be absolutely sick if they did. 

  139. RMM

    Phil: are the JRW comments now somewhere else ?

  140. shadowfax

    bobho
    Also you are refering to packaged software that come with and is licensed to only that computer, when you buy only the professional version it doesn’t matter what computer you load it in. The general rule is when you buy programs from any vender 4 computers are allowed. I have Office in more than one also, NOT prepackaged or what I call teaserware. I am sorry you don’t understand the difference and MFST assumes most people cheat and steal.

  141. shadowfax

    exec
    Where I lived in CO, CA, MT, ID, and now WY, no union teachers. In Lewis and Clark County MT LPNs and Aids are unionized, thats all I could find. That Nurseing home is country owned in Helena MT, The RNs are not.

  142. bobhu

    shadowfax,
     
    "The general rule is when you buy programs from any vender 4 computers are allowed", General rule by who?  did you ever check with MSFT? or just like 55 mph highway that you can go 65 mph and no police will stop you, right?
     
    let’s stop here, there is no answer for it… 
     
    BTW, it’s bobhu not bobho

  143. 1020

    Hey Guys!  you make political conversation look good!  ;)

  144. Pharmboy

    IWM is not playing along wit that bump at noon…..I smell
     
    Now, how do I paste pictures?

  145. deano

     Phil & Pharm
    Are you in buy-writes on ARNA now or are you doing a spread. I’m up nicely on the stock, and am covered only with calls in Sept, but I’m considering only covering half with P&Cs – what do you think? I’m probably holding too much stock – but I have not followed rule #2 yet. I think this one has legs.

  146. bobhu

    lol, 1020…..sorry

  147. jromeha

    What the hell is that Pharm? I dead mutated pirhana?

  148. David Ristau

    Hey all,

    I have a fourth position I am getting int today in SunPower Corp. (SPWRA) as a 2-4 day trade.

    Check it out here.

    Good Investing!

  149. exec

    That’s one ugly fish Pharm

  150. exec

    Shadow,
     
    Well hopefully they get unionized soon……then your students and patients can suffer like ours.

  151. shadowfax

    I lived in the norhteast and know people who are unionized. In most of the rest of the country RNs and teachers are considered professioals and the states do not allow them to unionize, most also get a salary and therefore get no overtime even if they say an extra 8 hours trying to save someone’s life. The students in idaho are dumber than any I have ever talked to, the kids I met in RI last year were way smarter, union teachers in RI, the nurses are un———, hospitals ?????? I don’t wamt to get sick there.

  152. tuscadog

    Phil / Manpower Inc. Report     I read it via your link.  Sounds very positive viz improving hiring activity (which suprises me).  Don’t know how scientific it is or how relevant this is to the Gov report tomorrow?  Manpower doesn’t seem to be getting much reaction from the financial media, should we dismiss this report optimism?

  153. Pharmboy

    Jro – yes.
     
    ARNA/deano – I have sold a ton of Aug 7 P.  Consolidation right now, with another leg up possible.  I am considering buying more stock at the moment, but I want them to hit 7 or so which is where the bit blip started.  I like the 5/10 Jan11 spread for 1.85 or so, selling the Aug 7 P for 45c.  That is net 1.40ish.  Might have to play around with it as the volatility is high.

  154. Pharmboy

    Yeah, that fish is ugly, and so is the daily chart of DIA, SPY among others.

  155. yodi

    RMM
    JRW is out today possible showing off his sport car HA HA

  156. exec

    Shadow…….I had to laugh at that comment………maybe the Idaho kids ate too many potato’s.

  157. Phil

    GS/Hugs – Outside of a general financial melt-down, I think those are pretty safe bets. 

    TIE/RMM – See above article on BA cancellations, not enough demand certainty. 

    EWJ/RMM – No, we were buying at $9.50/9.60 and selling with .20 gains on the calls, poor jobs by us will tank them so not worth it base on todays uncertaintly. 

    Stats/Yip – How about 3 negative quarters in a row?  At least show me that before you start re-classifying.  I can pretty much guarantee you that the people on the chat board in 1930 KNEW it was not just a recession.   If we start heading downhill, I will be happy to jump on the wagon and see how low we can go but all you doom and gloom guys are turning up rocks to prove a premise that isn’t coming to pass yet and maybe never will and Robini has already made a career out of that so I’m not sure where you think you’re going to be long-term with this outlook.  8-)

    Cramer/Pharm – Did he say something dumb again?  I missed it..

    VLO/RMM – Nice money for Jan $17.50 puts and calls ($3.75) so no reason not to take that as it’s 20% of the current price

    Bots/Exec – You guys are too much the action junkies.  Stocks are NOT supposed to be exciting.  Ideally, we grind out 20% annual gains selling calls at a rate of about 1.5% a month on stocks that rately move 5% a year.  That hasn’t happened since the mid 90s but, before that, it was pretty much the 100-year norm! 

    RINO/Jdub – Environmental Protection in China? Kind of an oxymoron, isn’t it?

    JNJ/Pharm – That’s a nice way to play the $60 line.

    JRW/RMM – No he said he’s away today. 

    MSFT/Shadow – I don’t know why they don’t flip to a subscription model so they can just charge everyone like $49 a year for the license and do patch upgrades.   By the time they pay their distribution network they get less than that anyway and think how nice it would be for the users. 

    LOL 1020!

    ARNA/Deano – I don’t like owning Biotechs so I’m usually in favor of spreads where the WORST CASE is you end up owning it.  With ARNA, you can cash out $7.15 and buy the 2012 $2.50/5 bull call spread for $1.20 and sell the $4s for $1.20 so you take $7.15 cash off the table, have maybe $2 in margin and the worst thing that can happen to you is you own them again at $4.  The play has $2.50 of upside at $5 while you need the stock to get to $9.65 to make $2.50.  See why there’s no point in owning them?

    TOS just slowed down on me, that’s often a sell signal!  QQQQ WEEKLY $46 puts are .07 and a fun play on a disaster tomorrow as last Friday support is way down at $45.50 but a throw-away if we have anything but a big sell-off.  The regular Aug $45 puts at .25 are a more sensible way to play and they could double up on a big drop.

  158. yipcarl

    Phil…Your funny man.  I’m not doom and gloom…. It’s the contraction I see, I didn’t say the end of the world coming and I’m not collecting guns and food.  lolol

  159. exec

    Phil/Bots……that was in the day of Pre-Bot……the Bots demand bigger returns and thus bigger, faster  and more frequent moves.
     
    God save the humans.

  160. exec

    Yip,
    I am.  :)

  161. snow

    China Environment/Phil & Jdub – the Korean peace corps has a group of volunteers specializing in global warming, and currently the country where Korea has the most volunteers is China – maybe a drop in the bucket, but it will help some…..

  162. shadowfax

    exec
    In Montana I needed a hernia repaired, I ended up on life support because they didn’t read the red warnings on my wrist. 2 Weeks ago I me a Vet that the University of Utah Medical center operated on the wrong leg 6 weeks extra time there over that, the situation is bad bad bad everywhere unions or not.

  163. loopy

    Can’t find the computer info…no worries, if someone sees it please repost

  164. HHFIV

    Pharmboy: I currently own 200 shares of JNJ and sold one AUG 57.5 CALL. I need to roll but am uncertain which SEPT strike to roll to. I can DD if necessary. Also, I read your write-up about JNJ. Thank you.

  165. exec

    Shadow,
     
    Operated on the wrong leg……that’s an honest mistake…..damn…..give the guy a break…….haven’t you ever mistakenly bandaged the wrong limb????

  166. Pharmboy

    HHFIV – why not move to Jan11 60s, and sell a few 55 Ps if you have the margin to make up the difference in the call price. JNJ should hold here, otherwise, the P can be rolled down.

  167. shadowfax

    Phil
    They get what they wanted and now they say wow I didn’t think that would happen. It will be great if we gust go back to what worked, taxes, pay, and computers. When the country had only dumb terminals there were very few problems and lots of people made a good living. Today unemployment. My hope in line with your comment is "go cloud computing", dumb terminals connected to super computers run by professionals for a monthly fee, cheaper, faster, reliable, and fixed if anything stops working, a service worth the money if they don’t put the service center in India where they speak another english that Americans can’t understand.

  168. diamond

    gel1 – You may want to consider:
     
    Mac mini - Customize it with: 2.66GHz Processor and 4GB 1066MHz DDR3 SDRAM or 8GB 1066MHz DDR3 SDRAM (see: Configure your Mac mini) to have a faster and more powerful unit.
     
    The Mac mini can drive two (2) Apple LED Cinema Displays.
     
    If you get a Cinema Display VESA Mount Adapter Kit for each display, then you can mount both up off of your desk with Ergotron MX Desk Mount LCD Arms  (Amazon.com has these same ones for less $$$).
     
    If you run Parallels, you can have one display with Mac and one display with Windows 7 (at the same time).

  169. shadowfax

    bobho
    Windows office professional says 4 computers.

  170. yipcarl

    Shadow?!?!  You have GOT to be kidding me?  Lawsuit?  That’s when lawsuits are good.  I would be out of my mind.  I had my leg operated on last month and they asked me like 5x which leg.  I was laughing but happy.
    Exec…I won’t say your wrong!

  171. shadowfax

    bobhu Sorry!

  172. yipcarl

    Again big divergence between the SP500/Dow and the Russell.

  173. HHFIV

    Pharm: Good idea. Thank you. ‘sell a few 55Ps’ – I do have the margin for -3 (a few) JAN 11 55 PUT.

  174. Phil

    Manpower/Tusca – I just put it in the positive pile, which adds or subtracts weight to the eventual NFP number.  So with ISM, ADP and Manpower looking good and WEEKLY unemployment up a little, I still think we pull a good number tomorrow but good is a relative term as expectations are for 100,000 LOST jobs so pretty much anything over 0 is going to be party time.  Keep in mind we haven’t hired anyone since 2007 – none, ZERO, NO ONE has been added to the US workforce in 3 years (other than this year’s census workers) and we need 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth so that’s 3.6M jobs NOT CREATED and we actually dropped about 9M jobs over that time:

    So I really don’t care if we have even a great number tomorrow – it won’t mean a thing in the grand scheme of things until we’re adding at least 2-300,000 jobs a month for 6 months that are expanding each month and THEN, by the end of the decade, we may be able to expect getting unemployment back to 6%.  Anything less than that and it’s certainly no reason to raise our outlook significantly (which is for a very slow improvement over time). 

    Hospitals/Shadow – Isn’t it amazing how much the quality of care varies from place to place? 

    JRW/Yodi – I think he said he was suiting up for a drive

    Contraction/Yip – I am just giving you crap (like you do me) but, seriously, I don’t see contraction below 900 on S&P without the kind of upheaval that would make collecting canned foods and ammo a sound long-term investment. 

    Bots/Exec – Too bad I used up my photo slot to show off JRW’s driving outfit or I would have put in a cool Terminator picture here…  GS employs more programmers than traders – that’s sad.  Since they don’t teach business fundamentals to most programmers, it pretty much lets you know that THEY (and GS is the biggest THEY of them all) don’t give a rat’s ass about the inherent worth of any individual companies – they are all just trading vehicles and they will ride them up and ride them down as long as they can make a buck – this does not bode well for the future of corporations because our investment houses are no longer about investing – they are about gaming  a system to their advantage despite the societal costs or the damage it does to the operations of the companies they are moving around like chips on a roulette table.  This is so far away from the intended concept of a stock market that I’m surprised it still functions at all sometimes. 

    Peace Corps/Snow – I’m glad SOMEONE still cares.

    Hospitals/Shadow – I find best hospitals tend to be in places where there are lots of lawyers (sadly). 

    RUT tanking into close, low of day.

  175. shadowfax

    yip
    When I had both shoulders, elbow, both hands, foot, knee, and others done I put Black Xes, permanent marker everywhere else. I have only 1 neck and they got that right by accident.

  176. Pharmboy

    RUT and IWM moving lower, SPY & DIA moving up.

  177. rainman

    Well, I guess that’s close enough to a flat close for me. Lets see if NFP gives them the excuse to let ‘er rip!

  178. HHFIV

    Phil: What do you make of the weakness in the RUT? I understand that it is designed to measure the performance of a few small caps, which are/can be riskier than large caps. Perhaps it’s as simple as a reduced appetite for risk among investors. Or, the tradebots were programmed to cause this outcome. Your thoughts?

  179. jromeha

    Phil – I heard this mentioned a couple of times before, but you never answered. Have you considered having a PSW conference for subscribers in Vegas or something? We could put Gel, Cap, and Humvee in charge of entertainment…..If they’ve learned anything from their party chairman I’m sure they could show us all a good time! lol. Seriously though, a weekend gathering in Vegas would be interesting.

  180. yipcarl

    Shadow…what happened

  181. shadowfax

    Phil
    Where are those good lawyers? In wyoming you can try to sue, but even dieing is worth $600, why give half to a lawyer, opps, lawyers have $5,000 retainers that means you win -$4,700!

  182. Jbur

    Phil, you have mentioned Esignal several times in the past. When I looked at it a year ago, it seemed like subscription rates started at about 100/month. But I couldn’t figure why a lot of professional like it. I guess it can be used as an analysis tool  and trading platform and it connects with most brokerages. But with the tools available on TOS, why bother? So you just use it to get quotes? No other benefit that you can see?

  183. exec

    Is that a real photo of JR?

  184. gmarts

    JR? looks more like something from a gay porn site….. (not that there’s anything wrong with that…)

  185. yodi

    Phil
    wait till he sees your photo HA HA
    JRW/Yodi – I think he said he was suiting up for a drive:

  186. Phil

    Clouds/Shadow – Yep, back to the mainframe!  I have a title software company that runs a cloud (although we didn’t know it was a cloud when we created it) and it’s now used by 25% of the title companies in NJ and gaining every month.  Why?  Exactly what you are saying – they turn on their computer and it works and if something goes wrong it’s fixed right away vs. waiting 1-3 days for a tech to make a "house call."   If their office goes down they can go to any Starbucks an log into the same system they have on their desk and they can work at home without transferring a file and now they can even look things up on the phone – now THAT’s productive! 

    RUT/HHF – I think that very poor report on small caps the other day is making them the least-favored index at the moment.  Also, RUT is hardest index to manipulate (due to breadth with no clear leader stocks) and is down 1.2% for the day, the other indexes can be moved around by buying up a few key stocks and they are down half as much or less.  Dow is easiest to manipulate and up the most (or down the least today).  NYSE used to be hard to manipulate but, since the re-weigting in 2003, which favors stocks with the most shares (I am not kidding), it’s been gamed up and down like the rest. 

    Technically, the top stocks on the NYSE (about 2,000 stocks, 400 of which are ADRs) are XOM (2.2%), HBC (1.4%), JNJ (1.2), PG (1.2), BP (1.2), IBM (1.2), JPM (1.2), T (1.1), GE (1.1) and CVX (1.1) – that’s 10 with 12.9% and the average p/e of the NYSE is 13.7 vs 14.75 for the S&P so they should be performing better, not worse than the S&P, which is 3.3% XOM and 2.3% MSFT and 2% AAPL and then about 1.5-2% OF THE EXACT SAME STOCKS!!!  What a joke….

    Conference/Jrom – Sure, send me plane tickets and I’ll show up!  I would love it but no way will I orgainze it – those things often end up in disaster. 

    Lawyers/Shadow – You don’t need to get one, the trick is to go to places where the sharks circle the hospitals looking for malpractice work.  You’d be surprised how that actually does keep them on their toes! 

    Esignal/Jbur – I like the 10-minute chart there better than anything else I’ve seem so it’s worth it to me.  Generally I have my day view on ETrade and my 10-min views on Esignal and then I’ll drill in and out between 1hr and 1 min on Esignal.  I sure wouldn’t want to say it’s better than this or that – I have used it for years, I’m very comfortable with it and it does everything I need so I don’t really try other things.  I think if I had to pick one thing I really like it’s that they treat the post and pre-market trading as continuous data to the market times so I get a great view of what happens over my longer periods – most programs, ETrade included, drop the after-hours trading. 

    JR/Exec – Only his tailor knows for sure!  8-)

    LOL GMarts – Of course not!

  187. yipcarl

    Phil…guns and ammo a potential long term investment plan if the SP500 goes below 900?!  Damn I hope I’m around to hear your insights then!  Obviously I truly believe 900 is a shoe in, I actually believe a retest of 700′s is most likely I’m just not sure if we go below that.  I would say below the low of 2008 people perhaps may start to consider thinking about food and ammo.

  188. yipcarl

    Wait Wait… That’s JRW?  He’s in his 30′s and has a pink motorcycle suit?  Please confirm.

  189. Phil

    From Andrew’s column:

    VLO – Valero Energy Corp. – An investor expecting the price of the oil refiner’s shares to move significantly ahead of September expiration appears to have purchased a sizeable long strangle today. Valero’s shares rallied as much as 1.7% during the first half of the trading session to secure an intraday high of $18.29. The stock is currently up 1.05% on the day to stand at $18.17 just before 11:40 am ET. Hoping to see the price of the underlying stock move, the strangle strategist purchased 7,500 puts at the September $17 strike at a premium of $0.47 each, and picked up the same number of calls at the September $19 strike for a premium of $0.48 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.95 per contract. The strangle positions the investor to benefit from wayward shifts in the price of Valero’s shares through expiration next month. Shares must rally at least 9.8% to surpass the upper breakeven price of $19.95, or plunge 11.7% lower to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $16.05, in order for the investor to start to make money on the trade. The strangler may also benefit if options implied volatility on the stock increases ahead of expiration. Increases in IV tends to lift premium on both call and put options and could allow the trader to sell the strangle at an advantageous price. Valero’s shares last traded above $19.95 on May 28, but have not traded below $16.05 since December 4, 2009

  190. ekor

    Phil,
    Lobbying Washington :  I love your solar rollout ideas as it addresses so many problems at once AND more than pays for itself over time.  Solar hot water has shortest payback period especially for boiler systems.
      There’s a learning curve dealing with batteries, inverters, etc., & I think churches & schools that also serve as shelters are the ideal place to start.
      Suppliers should be willing to give up some margin for increased volume (ala WMT).
      Biggest losers would be oil & gas & utility industrys,  so good luck.

  191. tuscadog

    Phil / Solar    OK, I understand your rationale.  But, natgas replaces imported oil, while solar replaces domestic coal and natgas, so less of trade balance payback.  Let’s see if you can persuade Larry Summers to finance both solar and Pickens, then we won’t import any energy.  Do you actually think structural initiatives on these two job creators could happen before November?  Pretty fantastic for old USA if they go for it.  Pretty interesting investing options also if you become optimistic.  But, who really initiates these structural change decisions in Washington? 

  192. jomama

    Phil, I am sure those same hospitals with malpractice lawyers run many unnecessary tests. I disagree with your logic on this one.

  193. exec

    Rumor has it that  JR dresses that way when he day trades.

  194. deano

     All
    On LV – pretty sure we could get a travel agent or a hotel to organize the whole thing, and we’d get great offers given the economy out there and the profile of our group. If Phil can arrange the outline/content, and Ilene or someone from Phil’s team can collect escrow the funds, I’d be willing to coordinate the details with the TA or hotel. Let me know in chat with an "I’m in" and I’ll keep a count and flesh out some details.
    I’d really like to meet you all.

  195. gmarts

    I myself wear nothing but a pair of Ray-Ban aviators and a leapord skin jockstrap.

  196. loopy

    exec…now that’s good comedy…what are the’ knee pads’ for then??

  197. jromeha

    Phil and/or anyone else, could you please explain the 3 am trade again? Im trying to find it but am having no luck. My understanding is that the Yen strengthens close to 3 am and then falls? I didnt get in at a price I wanted before close but wanted to go long Yen futures before the employment report.

  198. diamond

    loopyRegarding your request:
     
    goldman August 2nd, 2010 at 2:10 pm

  199. shadowfax

    Hey all
    I sit in my living room trading in my cheap BVD underware, why, comfortable especially when hot. Close the curtins to limit heat, lawsuits, and time in the graybar hotel!

  200. nicha

    deano- I am in. I can help you too.

  201. Pharmboy

    We’ll see about tomorrow…but this is interesting.

  202. yipcarl

    I thought JRW owned a Futures firm and retired?  Am I mistaken?

  203. shadowfax

    Hey all
    I wanted to get a fealing on holding IWM puts or calls overnight but could not make even a guess so I did the JRW thing cash. That said now I think we will open up and all that effects!

  204. gel1

    OK… back from an afternoon away from the markets. Thanks to everyone for the computer/display advise.  I really like Diamond’s suggestion using a Mac Mini and two Cinema displays.  Good laugh 1020…. I REALLY need to purge the Sony/Vista combo… more so since reading the manual – it boasts that it can double as a manure spreader – snowblower. Well, now I know where the secondary market is for this beast. Will wait for the weather to change.

  205. dezev

    $RUT  interesting chart although it was passed to me and the 20-200 day numbers are confusing   it does tag yesterday as a golden cross
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rut&p=d&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p04211290065&a=193878088

  206. diamond

    gel1MonoPrice.com is the best place online to get extra cables.  
     
    For the second display you will need a Mini DisplayPort to HDMI cable.
     
    After you connect your two displays to the Mac mini, open "System Preferences", click on displays and click on if you want them side-by-side or one over the other. SIMPLE!

  207. shadowfax

    jel1
    All put together I don’t trust any apple anything to not get infected but to really function with on time trades you need windows 7 and if it runs fine on an apple mac mini that I have personally considered and whoever said parellels works now, if you just buy windows7 professional now it might satisfy you but you need it anyway and I promise if you buy only the professional version you can load it on anything you want including your vista computer or the imac mini!

  208. diamond

    gel1 – Three additional items you will need:
     
    Apple Magic Mouse (wireless);
     
    Apple Wireless Keyboard (wireless);
     
    Apple Battery Charger: comes with six NiMH batteries (really nice).
     

  209. shadowfax

    gel1
    Get the disc, don’t download anything, in the end without the disc you have literally nothing!

  210. shadowfax

    gel1
    I can give you sites that sell better NMIH batteries and a better charger for 1/10th the cost but they won’t come close to regular disposable batteries for how long do they last without maintainence, take the dead ones out, recharge, reinstall.

  211. shadowfax

    Hey all
    Ever considered maybe the best sailsman of all time had to lift his glasses to see his malfunctioning iphone4 at the press conferense? It takes huge gains to make a difference in multibillion dollar stocks. Good co., ? stock investment, it’s up to you to be wise!

  212. shadowfax

    Interested in seeing the real shadowfax or his greater brother Luke Skywalker? Next year in monthly national winning cats! This is real and I am the proud owner of both.

  213. stjeanluc

    Phil, not sure this article will help your paranoia…
    http://www.nanex.net/20100506/FlashCrashAnalysis_Part4-1.html 

  214. matt1966

    Wow, even with the PATHETIC volume today they couldn’t manipulate the RUT a little better to sync up with the other indices which seem to think things are great?
     
    I was a little more short then I cared to be eod.  Never got my gap fill for FAS.  So I wanted to cover a portion of my position.  I put an order in at 7:55pm to buy and they instantly moved the ask up .01 on me.  I moved up my bid to the ask and they instantly moved it up another .02.  I moved my bid down .01 to my original order and 2 mins later they sold me the shares and instantly moved the last trade back up .02.  What shenanigans for a couple of cents.  But the point is, every aspect and every minute this market is open someone or something is trying to game you.   

  215. yipcarl

    Here are today’s thoughts..
    With all the ‘blowout earnings’ we should all be weary of sell side analysts.  They set the ‘expectations’ for future earnings of companies.  Google a ‘supply side analyst’ and learn about the people that create expectations. 
    1.

    U.S. Manufacturing – declined for the 4th month in a row in July
    2.  Pending Home Sales is the number of contracts signed by interested home buyers. This declined for a 2nd month is a row through June.  It’s also important to note that pending home sales were down 30% during May  vs April and 2.6% in June vs May.  After 30% down in May you wouldn’t expect a drop the following month, yet it’s still down 2.6% more percent?  Year over year home sales are down 16% May 10 vs May 09  and down 19% vs last June 09.  This slow bleed is going to continue for at least another 18 months.  25% of mortgage debtors owe more on their loan then their home is worth how is this resolved?
    3.  Auto Sales – Headlines were saying auto’s were great however by far the companies who had the most improvement were Kia and Hyundai, the low price cars.   People who are buying are spending less money.  Here’s another example of expectations being skewed.  Sales of cars were up during July but at such a miniscule pace relative to prior months it’s almost laughable.  Ford increased sales 40% in March down to 12% in June, then in July there was a 3% improvement, putting it at 15% for July.  What? Just a 3% increase to 15% when it was 40% in March just a few months ago? This is hardly an improvement.  

    I could go on but I wouldn’t want to bore everyone…
     
     

  216. shadowfax

    yip
    Yes your boring but it is not because you are you, it is because it is the same old same old!

  217. shadowfax

    yipcarl
    Bet gel no matter what he does or buys is not what he wants, why? Because that is the way it goes for everyone.

  218. humvee4me

    shadowfax:  it seems like you’re optimistic and you must be a bull

  219. diamond

    matt1966 = Matt Taibbi? ;-)

  220. diamond

    8 Business Secrets Of The Grateful Dead
     
     
    Perhaps some of us we already knew …
     
    " … I will get by / I will get by / I will get by / I will survive …"

  221. diamond

    Phil – Here is a chart that might interest you

  222. humvee4me

    diamond good graph; although its a function of the times, nothing can grow at that rate indefinitely; i just learned tonight that 27% of Florida’s 2011 budget is for Medicaid;   its all unsustainable;  I’ve had my rosy glasses on for a long time, i don’t think they’re going to work for me for much longer.

  223. snow

    LV/Deano – could be fun – there’s some good hiking right near Las Vegas. Count me in.

  224. gel1

    Diamond / Shadowfax
    Can’t thank you enough for the great tech info… It is a plan I’ll follow.

  225. humvee4me

    Deano:  good to see my LV idea is getting traction, Phil hasn’t responded as of yet; I don’t know what the "critical mass" is for this to happen, keep it rolling!

  226. humvee4me

    Snow:  I loveya man; who goes to LV to go hiking??   lol

  227. humvee4me

    Snow:  i’m into cycling; looking for a biking loop……

  228. goldman

    Phil – Curious on your thoughts on the now famous "Slam Dunk Stimulus" idea…a $46 billion bailout of underwater mortgages, per the article from WSJ today.  Such would spike the markets to all time highs short term, yes…but how would it affect our culture in the long term?
    "An Argentinaville Stimulus – Wall Street comes to life with rumors of a back-door stimulus"
     
    Per online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703748904575411553343672456.html
     
    A comment to the article is pasted below that goes beyond verbal theory:
    Mayte Sandrin wrote:
    My husband is Argentinian and I am Cuban. We left our respective countries in our youth and met in Miami, FL. We loved this country before we came here. The idea of this nation has always fascinated us and of course that is one of the many reasons we stayed together and continue to be together; we agree on so much. And our ideas are not just things we fiddled with in philosophy class. We actually experienced the pain of socialism in his case and the evil ineptness of communism in my case. As my dad likes to say: The difference between socialism and communism is that socialism is one bucket of S*!t and communism is two buckets of S*!t. So sad that after everything our families went through to come here and all we have accomplished through the wonderful opportunities here that now we are seeing this great country turn into a socialist, statist country where the individual rights are increasingly meaningless and government has more and more power over us. It’s always in the name of progress, of protection, of safety and motivated by envy --attacking the producers and job creaters, whom the leftists call "the rich." Funny thought that they are the only ones that get money for nothing; they make themselves rich by stealing from the people.

  229. Phil

    Good morning!

    Solar/Ekor – Yes, hot water is best and easiest, especially for northeast.  This is one of those things that can and SHOULD be pushed through because it takes people off the grid and our grid is at the point of a $3Tn failure – yet another MASSIVE government subsidy for corporations that Republicans conveniently forget about when they tell you how government must be stopped at all costs…  An article from EnergyBiz by Edwin D. Hill, President of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, says:

    The average age of power transformers in service is 40 years, which also happens to be the average lifespan of this equipment. Combine the crying need for maintenance with a shrinking workforce, and we may find that the 2005 blackout that affected parts of Canada and the northeastern United States might have been a dress rehearsal for what’s to come. Deregulation and restructuring of the industry created downward pressure on recruitment, training and maintenance, and the bill is now coming due.

    Solar/Tusca – I’m not against Pickens plan.  Doing both allows us to fuel trucks with nat gas without raising the price of nat gas (since we lower home demand).  No one is against Pickens plan per se, just that he’s looking for massive up-front government subsidies for conversions of trucks and stations so he can sell his product with no payback to government (in fact, they would collect less tax revenue on nat gas than on gasoline) so it’s actually a tougher sell than mine.  In theory, the President should be proposing initiatives like these and it’s up to people like me and TBoone to "sell" ideas up the chain but it is all such political BS these days and you run into so many assholes, whose face turns to stone the minute you say "solar" because they immediately begin thinking of all those contributions from Big Oil going out the window, that it can discourage almost anyone.  I meet so many people who went to Washington because they thought they could "make a difference" and it usually takes about 18 months for them to get defeated and cynical and half of those people are just another 18 months away from accepting their first bribe – it’s a very sad place if you have morals but, fortunately, few people who last there do…

    Hospitals/Jo – It’s a little tongue-in-cheek, you know but I do notice that big city hospitals tend to be crowded but competent – it’s the ones in rural areas that scare the crap out of me.  Best hospital I ever went to was Children’s Hospital in Denver – just the most amazingly efficient place I’ve ever seen and they had patient coordinators who would give you updates on a regular basis (Maddie had passed out from altitude sickness in Keystone, we drove to Denver (lower altitude) but she wasn’t getting better so went to hospital) to the point where the service felt like being in a 5-star hotel.  At the completion of each stage of tests and treatment, the person who handled it would come in and report to us – Really amazing place. 

    Vegas/Deano – I’d say if we find at least 50 interested people we may have something.  I don’t have an outline as I’ve never done this before.  I imagine we’d need one or two projectors and internet connections and stuff and probably best content would be stuff that is more visual like chart signals we look for, how to read option chains and identify best combos, setting entries and exits and stops, futures trading – stuff like that…

    Not an image I want in my head Gmarts!

    3am/Jrom – Well it’s 4am now but the Yen is "up" (which is down) at 86.130 to the dollar, near the high of the day.  The Yen WEAKENS into the Nikkei close (4am) to cheer up the exporters and then it drifts back UP (which is down in number – less Yen to the Dollar) into our open.  If you are looking at the USD/JPY chart, we short it here in a normal futures scale, which in this particular case is short 1x at 86.130 and DD at 86.170 (the high we missed) for a 86.150 avg short entry and we stop at 86.21 and try again tomorrow.  If all goes well, we get a drop from here through about 8am and we cash out.  I just did a virtual short of 10,000 contracts on TOS so we’ll see how it pans out between now and 8 (if I remember). 

    Also, Shadow – too much information!

    Denninger/Pharm – He’s right, of course but local unemployment is not Big Business’ problem (more of a benefit) as long as they have buyers somewhere.  We never gave a crap about unemployment or poor working conditions in 3rd World Countries while US corporations exploited them and made a fortune and now we are becomming a 3rd World Country and the rest of the World could care less.  Karma is a bitch… 

    IWM/Shadow – Holding anything overnight puts you at the mercy of the futures moves.  Plus, with options, you also risk a day of time decay so you’d better be pretty confident of movement.  I’d say, if you are not 70% or more sure, then cash is smarter. 

    Cinema displays/Gel – I have not tried it but I don’t think I’d like 2 cinema displays because they would either be in a V, with both screens at an angle, or they would be side by side and I’d be starting at the line in the middle.  I have the Cinema display in front with 3 full-page windows open (and tabs, of course) and then, angled on each side, a couple of 24" Dells which I use for things that I want to see on a full screen so mainly text in front of me (where it’s easy to read) and charts on the sides.  Set-up requires 2nd video card but mouse flows right across all 3 screens no problem (trackball is better) and the best testimony I can give it is I’ve had this for years now and it’s virtually eliminated eye-strain I used to get sometimes but that may also simply be the result of better generation of monitors and not the set-up itself…

    Rut/Dez – Chart did not work.

    Mac Virus/Shadow – Well I’ve had Macs since they were invented and I’m still waiting for that virus you keep telling me about.  I don’t even have McAfee on my Mac but it sure is a busy little program on my PCs!  Here’s an interesting article on Apple’s management culture.

    Paranoia/Stjean – That’s a great analysis.  I don’t consider it paranoia when the facts clearly back up my theory….

    RUT/Matt – Forget the RUT, they could hold copper $3.40 or oil $82.50 or gold $1,200 – those are great indicators that the index moves are BS.  It is getting nasty with these new algos that get down to the individual trades.  People placing market orders must be getting raped en masse. 

    Jesse Ventura on Carson Daily saying Government absolutely knew 9/11 was going to happen and may have actually participated in it – he’s pretty adamant.  Pointing out $13M was spent investigating 9/11 vs. $100M was spent investigating Clintons BJ…

    Going on/Yip – Here’s a juicy bone for you:  US non-financial corporations have piled up record $7.2Tn in debt

    WALL STREET'S BIG WIN MATT TAIBBI ROLLING STONETiabbi/Diamond – He seems to be running out of gas (it is frustrating to write about this stuff every day!) but I love the pictures:

    Well, this explains why all the restaurants are packed around here – New York City has 667,200 Millionaires – 3x the #2 city, LA – not to mention 55 of the Forbes 400! 

    Food stamps/Diamond – That’s pretty intense!

    Free Stimulus/Goldman – It seems to be a BS rumor but in-line with another part of my agenda next week as I will be pushing for my very simple plan to have the government buy $125,000 worth of a home (up to 50% of current value) in exchange for paying down $100,000 worth of the mortage.  They are giving the money to the banks anyway and getting nothing for it and my plan gives the bank the SAME amount of money and costs the government the SAME amount of money but puts an asset on their books AND lowers the homeowners’ monthly payments by $600 a month and increases the bank’s LTV ratio without the need for foreclosure. 

    There would, of course, be standards for ability to pay but, even if the homes end up being foreclosed on, it’s still no more cost to the government than bailing out the bank in the first place. 

    It is clear to our lawmakers that SOMETHING needs to be done to restart housing or there’s no way they’ll ever get people back to work in large numbers.  It’s not just the 3M construction workers who directly lost thier jobs but the supply chain along the way and, of course, mortgage brokers and realtors are the most "underemployed" class of workers, most earning less than 1/3 of what they made in the busy market.  Of course the Gang of 12 is pushing for FRE and FNM to do something stupid as they still want them to go BK so they can control the loan business again – these low rates are really pissing the Banksters off!

    This is my new favorite pool (Singapore):

    It's the swankiest pool in the world

    Under construction

    More construction shots

    And it has the Lion King in permanent residence

    Here's the promo shot

    Remember when WE were the guys who were bold and innovative?

  230. Phil

    Todays scariest headline:  "Every Day Sarah Palin Gets Closer to Being President"

  231. Phil

    Another good article for the bears:  Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse

  232. savitri

    Oh nooooooooo—please please Palin go to thy neighbor they need someone

  233. pstas

    Palin- I find it just amazing how such a supposed dim-witted ditz from Alaska could strike such fear in the hearts of lefties. My guess is they think, if successful – a long shot indeed- that she might actually TRY to restrain the growth of the beast?

  234. pstas

    Singapore- Bold and innovative – or just ugly?

  235. savitri

    Palin--a little fear but mostly ludicrous that people listen to her

    Singapore all three but able to handle their economy. Look at Dubai

  236. kinkistyle

    PALIN FOR PRESIDENT 2012. YES YOU CAN SARAH!

  237. loopy

    diamond
    August 5th, 2010 at 5:30 pm | Permalink  
    Thank you, sir!

  238. Phil

    Palin/Pstas – Are you insane?  You really think that woman should be the President of the United States and represent our nation on the World Stage?  To meet with other leader and make life and death decisions that affect millions of people around the World every day?  ROFL – that is why "the right" is a laughingstock party my friend.  The very fact that you can even entertain the notion of this, let alone seriously state that she is "feared" by the left shows how clueless and out of touch your views are.  But, then again, you thought Bush was good stuff too didn’t you so I guess Palin isn’t a big stretch for your side at this point.  Go for it buddy, she is our dream ticket and you guys can run her against our next two decades worth of candidates if you want – maybe you’ll win. 

    Oh damn, thought I could finish with that last line but now I’m laughing too hard to write my daily post…

  239. Phil

    Oh I just remembered to close that Yen trade but I miscalculated what I was buying.  Apparently selling 10,000 USD/JPY at 86.124 and buying back 10,000 USD/JPY at 85.876 (neither was optimal as I wasn’t paying any attention while writing) only netted $28.77 but it looks like that only tied up $100.  Hopefully Gel can explain this to us later as I don’t know anything about currencies but 28.77% in 4 hours does make me want to learn!

  240. fjd10595

    Not sure that putting a cruise ship on top of a building is ‘bold and innovative’.  More like an atrocity.  But I agree in concept about the US not being innovative.

  241. jromeha

    Deano – Im in providing the military gives me time off

  242. Maya1

    Phil,
    On the AAPl position, you suggested a $230/$270 Jan bear call position yestrday for a net cost of $16.50 and to sell the Jan2012 $300 C for $31.50 for a  net of positive $15.
    My broker Fidelity states the Jan $230 call,now $44 will be sold, and the $270 bought for $20. He also said that since its so far deep in the money, good chance my stock gets called away at $230 in next few days?
    What am I doing wrong?
    Thank for your help.

  243. pstas

    Palin- Thanks, Phil. You make my point exactly. The very thought of her just puts you folks in a tizzy. I find it hilarious
    Also, your pithy , in depth analysis of my position on the subject without the benefit of any facts is quite remarkable.

  244. 1020

    Pstas – Really?  Palin is an idiot.  Let me ask everyone: If Sarah Palin looked more like Christina Romer, what would most of you boys say then? Hmmm…….

  245. kururi67

    Yep, Palin is an idiot.

  246. pstas

    1020- Again, my point exactly.

  247. 1020

    My only question is what are her achievements? She quit the best gig in Alaska and wrote a book and is now a millionaire.
     
    I do not care who it is, with credentials like that, how can you vote without having any doubts?……
     
    What started as a desire to serve the public good has turned into a chase for the $$$$. I hope she makes alot of it…..as a private citizen.  Have a good day!  :)

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