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Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2011

Merry Christmas!

I hope you got everything you wanted this holiday season and, most importantly, I hope you had time to spend with your family.  I'm waiting for mine to wake up – waiting for my children to come out of their rooms so I can videotape (gosh I'm old, there's no tape anymore) them in those first moments of Christmas morning – how can I not be of good cheer anticipating that?

It occurred to me, though, that I have something I can give you.  Not peace on earth but perhaps peace of mind heading into the New Year – a way to help insure some future prosperity with a few inflation-fighting stock picks that can brighten up your virtual portfolio, which also can be used to help balance the budget against unexpected cost increases.  

This isn't an options seminar or one about risk or leverage – these are just a few practical ideas you can use to hedge against inflation as it may affect your everyday life using basic industry ETFs and some simple hedging strategies to give you an opportunity to stay ahead of the markets if they keep going higher.  

Idea #1 – Hedging for Home Price Inflation

Let's say you have $20,000 put aside for a deposit on a home but you're not sure it's the right time to buy.  On the other hand, let's say you are worried that home prices will take off again (I doubt this but you never know).  XHB is the homebuilder's ETF, currently at $17.46 and they bottomed out at $7.77 in 2009 and were in the $40s back in 2006.

You can sell 20 contracts of the XHB 2013 $14 puts for $1.70 each ($3,400) and that obligates you to buy 2,000 shares of XHB at $14 (20% off the current price) and you can use that money to buy 30 2013 $15/18 bull call spreads for $1.40 ($4,200) so another $800 out of pocket and you have 30 $3 contracts for net $800 that pay back $9,000 if XHB simply gains .54 by Jan 2013.  These bull call spreads, however, do not pay off early – the ETF needs to be above $18 at Jan 2013 options expiration day (the 18th).  

So you are putting up $800 in cash and the margin requirement on the sale will be roughly $7,000 (1/2 of the potentially put price) in an ordinary margin account.  What have we accomplished?  Well, if XHB goes up, your $800 becomes $9,000, adding $8,200 (41%) to your $20,000 deposit, that should keep you up with up to a 40% jump in home price but, if they go up that fast, getting a deposit will be the least of your problems!  

On the risk side.  We certainly don't expect XHB to go to zero but let's say it falls to $7 (worse than the last crash).  Well, you are obligated to own 2,000 shares at $14 ($28,000) and you would have lost half so $14,000 is your risk there but I would put it to you that, if we have a crash of that magnitude again, you are better off losing that $14,000 than if you had bought a home for $250,000 and had it drop 20% on you ($50,000) or even 10% ($25,000) and again, that's a very extreme example and you are not locked into the trade, you can get out when the loss is $5,000, for example, keeping 75% of your deposit and feeling good about waiting out a declining market.  

That's what hedging is, it gives you a cushion that can prevent things from getting away from you.  For example, you can hedge this hedge by buying 20 2013 $10 puts for .70 ($1,400) and you cap your downside at $10 ($8,000 loss) but you raise your outlay to $2,200 and lower your reward potential to a still respectable $6,800 (34%) – just an example of a way to control the downside and you can trigger a cover like that only if XHB fails to hold, for example $15.  You can actually work these swings to your advantage by adjusting the trade as the stock moves through a channel but, for the sake of simplicity – we're just discussing passive risk management examples.  The idea is to reduce your risk of waiting – that lets you sit back and make an intelligent, well-timed decision without worrying that the market is getting away from you.  Unlike CDs or Bonds, there is no penalty for an early withdrawal from a hedge, other than the bid/ask spread you may pay if you do it very quickly.  

Idea #2 – Hedging for Fuel Inflation

Gasoline prices are once again creeping up and, if you are the average family, you buy about 1,000 gallons of gas per year ($2,500) and spend another $1,500 heating your home.  That's $4,000 a year spent on energy and it's already up over $1,000 from last year – pretty annoying, right?  

XLE is the ETF for the energy market and it's currently trading at $67.41.  If you want to guard against another $1,000 increase in the price of fuel next year, you can, very simply buy 2 Jan 2012 $55/60 bull call spreads for $2.60 ($520) and offset that cost with the sale of 1 2013 $50 put for $4 ($400) for a total outlay of $120.  If XLE simply maintains $60 for the year (11% lower), you make $880 (733%).

We can assume any increase in fuel prices over the year will push them higher and XLE has pretty much held $55 all year and oil was below $60 (down 30%) last time it was below $75 in August so this is a very nice mechanism for hedging 20% of your fuel cost.  What's nice about this is oil can fall and you'll save money on your fuel and, as long as XLE doesn't fall more than 25% by 2013 – the trade only costs your $120 cash outlay and you should save far more than that on lower energy prices (assuming that relationship is maintained, of course).  Below 25%, you get assigned 100 shares of XLE at $50 in 2013 and that's a price that's held up very well since the end of April '09, when oil was under $50.  So a risk of owning $5,000 worth of the Energy Spider, which puts you bullish on oil over $50 which will always make a nice long-term hedge against inflation. 

Now our Members at Phi's Stock World know they can roll those puts or convert those put assignments into buy/writes or do a dozen other things to mitigate the losses – as I said, these are really basic examples of how anyone can hedge their real-life budgets to help them make long-range plans to fight inflation.  Actually, I just followed the link to the Membership landing page and, oddly enough, the example trade there is an energy trade.  It was ENP, which is another good way to play.  That stock was picked at $16.50 earlier this year and we hedged it down to $14 and it's now $21.77!  Not bad for a free sample…

Our other free sample was C with a net .78 entry on the Jan 2011 $2.50/5 bull call spread for net .78.  That one is now $2.18 in the money with a few weeks to go so up a lovely 179% in less than a year – another good way to keep ahead of inflation!  Even if you don't want to subscribe – I suggest checking back there once in a while as it's time for me to update our trade examples – who knows what the next two picks may bring?  

Idea #3 – Hedging for Food Inflation

If you think you spend a lot on fuel, maybe you haven't been to the grocery store lately.  I knew food inflation was getting out of hand when the A&P's fruit and vegetable prices started catching up with Whole Foods.  I used to get a few cool items at Whole Foods and stop at A&P for the staples but there's barely a difference in fruits and vegetables anymore when it used to be extreme.  Good for Whole Foods and local growers but not so good for the average consumer who is being bled dry by commodity speculators and agriculture cartels

And the middle-men are getting crushed too.  A&P (GAP) are filing for bankruptcy and DF is the year's worst performer on the Russell 1,000 while WFMI is one of the best.  So it pays to grow the food and it pays to sell the food to the top 10% but it's not so good to be in between the two!  This is completely in-line with our "Tale of Two Economies" outlook for 2010.    

Perhaps the CEO of Dean Foods, then, can benefit from this hedging exercise as well.  

DBA is the way to go here.  We've had many DBA trades this year and some 2012 spreads are still running and way back on 2/28, I had even mentioned the Jan 2011 $21/23 bull call spread in a Weekly Wrap-Up that obviously has it's 100% in the bag already.  The more conservative buy/write play is up "just" the 20% max and, unfortunately, not keeping up with the price of many foods, not to mention cotton, which is up 40% since March.  Fortunately, we got more bullish with the March 11th picks, which were right in the morning post, picking the Jan $22 calls for $3.95 (now $11, up 175%) and we added DBC (which includes energy and metals in addition to food) 2011 $15 calls at $6.10, now 12.20, up a neat 100% – now THAT's how we stay ahead of inflation!

It's a little trickier now because I thought DBA and DBC were underpriced to inflation in March so we took some very aggressive positions but, since then, Obama and the Bernanke have dropped another $2Tn on the economy so we'll have to hold our nose and pick a position, but one that's not quite so gung-ho bullish as the last two.  

While DBA is a bit pricey at $32, we know we loved it at $20 so selling the 2013 $25 puts for $1.90 is a net $23 entry and we feel we can live with that.  If you spend $10,000 a year on groceries you can risk being assigned 400 shares for $9,200 and sell 4 of the puts for $760.  That money can be used to buy 6 of the 2012 $26/29 bull call spreads for $1.90 ($1,140) and that's net $380 out of pocket (2 week's shopping) and the upside, if DBA simply holds $29 (down 10%) is $1,800 less the $380 laid out is $1,420 so a 14.2% hedge against food inflation that pays you even if it's actually down 10% and you don't lose any money until DBA is down around $26.50, at which point, you food savings should well cover the $380 you spend on the 2012 spread.  

The 2013 put sale, if DBA should go down all the way to $21 (down 33%), would cost you $1,200 – also a lot less than you will probably save on food.  Remember, these are not magic beans that pay off no matter what the market does – these are hedges against inflation and, if there is no inflation, then you will save LESS than you otherwise would have but, again – there are dozens of ways to make owning DBA long-term a successful part of your virtual portfolio.  Instead of randomly investing your retirement savings – trade ideas like these are ways to put some of the money to work for you – in ways that can help you manage your bills NOW – as part of your daily life.  

Inflation Hedge #4 – Hedging Against Rises in PSW Member Fees

We run a unique service.  I am on-line most trading days chatting live with members about trades like this.  Optrader, Sabrient and several of our other writers are on-line as well but there is a limit to how many people we can effectively get back to in a day so we limit our Membership and, when it gets too crowded, we raise our prices.  We hadn't raised them in a while but this summer we had to as we were going well over 300 comments a day in my chat, which is around my limit.  Unfortunately, that made the service a little expensive for some people who wanted to join up.

So, for 2011, let's make things interesting with my favorite hedge.  If you sign up for a full-year membership between now (12/25/2010) and Jan 1st, 2011 and the following trade idea does NOT net 100% on the cash outlay by expiration day on Jan 2012, then I will give you a free Membership for 2012!  That's a 50% discount on two years and your hedge can be going for let's say $1,500 (1/2 the Basic Membership) on the spread and you either make $1,500 which is 1/2 of the 2011 Membership or you get 2012 for free, which, assuming you lose all $1,500, is 50% off 2012.  Not bad right?  You do not have to buy the spread to play – just the Membership, which is non-refundable so don't get cute!  

(Probably good time to put in some kind of contest disclaimer that this is just for fun and we guarantee nothing at all and that we can change the rules at any time and that we accept no responsibility for anything under any circumstances whatsoever and that billions may play and nobody might win – how's that?  You just have to trust us, we're not in the contest/guarantee business – I just want you to know how good I feel about this trade idea.  Always consult a professional investment advisor (I'm not one) before doing anything!)

Anyway, what's the trade?  VERY simple – the XLF Jan 2012 $12/13 bull call spread for .80, selling the 2012 Jan $11 puts for .40. That will be net .40 on the $1 spread (we are not counting the margin amount, which is about $150 per contract, just the cash outlay) and the upside if XLF reaches expiration at $13 (now $15.87) is 150% of that .40.  So the net price of that spread has to be .80 or greater – that's the "bet."  Obviously, if the net of the spread is even a penny, the $11 puts would expire worthless and will not be an issue.  This is not really an inflation hedge other than general market inflation caused by the Fed feeding endless amounts of money to – the Financials!  See my logic on this one? 

Now, if you are thinking, after going over these ideas and seeing how a few of last year's trades worked out: "Well, that's too easy, there's a very good chance of making 150% on that trade."  Well, that's kind of my point!  Don't you think you should learn how to trade like that?  This is the whole point to using options and hedging in a balanced virtual portfolio and that is what we teach over at Phil's Stock World every day.    

I very much hope all these trades work out well, ESPECIALLY the last one!  

Have a very happy holidays and we hope to see you inside in the new year. 

All the best, 

Phil 

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Phil,
 
Thanks for the ideas. 
 
Have a great holiday and be sure to enjoy your kids while they’re still young.  Take a lot of footage today because they’ll be all grown up before you know it.

Phil,
 
Merry Christmas to you and your family!  Have  FUN!!!
 
Thanks so much for your great guidance and help.
 
Time to take a well deserved break. 
 
DD

 Phil
I am surprised you wrote a post today! Thank you for the gift.

 Phil:
Happy Holidays to you, the family and to your staff at PSW. I’ll sign up for the annual membership, not for the free membership in 2012, but because the knowledge you provide is priceless…the freebie is just a peanut- butter-and jelly delight.
Thanks and I’ll communicate with Greg on Monday or Tuesday.

Phil – Great post today!  Thanks for your insight and recommendations this year.  Have a wonderful holiday with your family and i look forward to tracking the markets and making some profitable trades in 2011 with you and all the members of PSW.  

Phil,
Merry Christmas.
WHEN do you ever stop?
And thanks for your kindness last week. My misunderstanding…but it worked out.

China raised rates on Christmas…Gold ain’t gonna like it (if it gets noticed)…..

Phil,
I am really learning how to invest using options and you are a great teacher.  So thank you.  As part of that learning, I need to do a better job with learning how to manage trades that are going against me.
For example  USO puts Jan 39 (holding 40).  I have learned from you that a good trader always has a strategy for the next move.  Here, I am not sure what I would do if I were not a member of PSW.  I could sell puts on USO and I could roll the above puts that I bought or whatever else there is to do.   (but then I am thinking that OIL is going to 100 plus for sure).  So now I feel that I am in the next great MOMO for early 2011 but I am on the wrong side of it.  Since this is part of the 1050p portfolio, there may be other members  who may have been pondering over it.  You may even say -no problem – we have time. 
I suppose there is no best way to manage anything but if you could throw some ideas out, it would be appreciated.  By the way, I already know that you get joy out teaching others and I for one have a far better understanding of trading options than I would have received from reading any number of books or attending seminars on the subject. 
DD

Phil / US military – you prob saw it already – Nicolas Kristoff with oped article I’m sure you would enjoy in nytimes today.  a great travel section too with morocco, japan and china all highlighted.  

Phil:
Been catching up on some reading during the holidays and ran across this piece from Pragmatic Capitalists on QE and its effects (or in this case non-effects) on the economy.http://pragcap.com/does-quantitative-easing-drive-asset-prices-higher
I am hoping that you will read these articles and give me your opinion. I am still having trouble getting a complete understanding on how QE works. For example, how does the Fed determine which banks to buy from and how much to buy from each particular bank? Do they target only certain banks or is the Fed money available to whichever banks ask for it? Is the process competitive at all (meaning do the banks compete with interest rates for the Feds money)? The last question I have is where does the Fed get the money?
"Some investors prefer to call it “money printing” or “stimulative monetary policy”.  Both are misleading and the latter is particularly misleading in the current market environment.  First of all, the Fed doesn’t actually “print” anything when it initiates its QE policy.  The Fed simply electronically swaps an asset with the private sector.  In most cases it swaps deposits with an interest bearing asset.  They’re not “printing money” or dropping money from helicopters as many economists and pundits would have you believe.  It is merely an asset swap."
http://pragcap.com/quantitative-easing-the-greatest-monetary-non-event
What are the "deposits" the writer refers to?
It seems to me that this writer is making the point that QE has not worked and historically has never worked. The main problem with QE is it does nothing to generate real growth in the economy and wrongly assumes that the action of the lenders is more important than that of the borrowers. But he also makes the argument that it does not cause inflation because it swaps assets rather than adding new financial assets to the private sector.
Lastly, how can QE increase inflation if there is no net gain in financial assets from the process? If there are no borrowers (ie., no credit expansion) then there is ultimately no increase in the supply of money.
Ok. I am completely out of my league on some of this stuff and am trying to put it all together so I can assess better where we go from here.  Am I understanding any of this properly? Thank you.

GE capital selling so Mexican mortgages
 
170 M for a 2 B portfolio, that is .085 on the $1, OUCH!

Why China wont stop growing for some time..we cant even maintain whats already been built by the poor laborers of the past never the less build something completely new…growth is no longer affordable in this country…I’m on the side of Meridith Whitney

To give some sense of the pace of public works construction in China, the city of Guangzhou is planning to open 83 miles of new subway lines by the end of next year. Meanwhile, New York–a city of about the same size–has been playing around with the 1.7-mile Second Avenue line for decades now. China also builds subways rather cheaply–$100 million per mile versus $2.4 billion per mile in the Big Apple

http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/03/27/building-a-subway-is-96-percent-cheaper-in-china/

 Phil, what do you think the chances are of another currency replacing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?  I watched a disturbing video from Stansberry & Associates, the "End of America".  The video is about 60 minutes long.  I’m not sure if he is just trying to sell reports and pump gold and other commodities. The video cites numerous concerning facts that make it seem we are on the verge of losing the dollar as the worlds reserve currency.  Which would obviously be a disaster for America.  
 
He is advocating moving assets offshore, buying gold and silver, etc.  Sounds a little too much like doomsday to me, but I’m interested in your take on it.  Thx.
Happy Holidays.

I saw that report as well and having previously subscribed to Stansberry, this has been an ongoing theme for the past 2 years……Phil, I would also like to hear your take on such disaster scenarios…..Thank you and hope your holidays have been good.

Phil/DC – It’s just Japan all over again….and its gonna be a few years before the wash comes out of the drier and we find every thing fitting just a bit more snug….Japan still has not recovered on a performance basis from the high (25% off I think), nor will we. 

 

The bond sales not only are the gang of 12, but also Pimco, Fuji, Bank of China, etc.  Any primary and secondary dealer is eligible.

I just read an interesting article on Fortune.com about 2011 being the year Android and the smartphone market in general explodes. The author believes dramatic reductions in cost will send handset prices tumbling, and will lead to cell phones eclipsing computers as the way most of the world accesses the internet.  
Phil, do you have any suggestions on how to play this?  I guess it is obvious that Google could profit immensely from this, for the increased ad revenue but their valuation seems high already.  I read an interesting article about how hard it will be to challenge Android’s open source model, when you consider the fact that Google can share some of the ad revenue with the device manufacturer to sweeten the deal. (Not good for Microsoft)  Here is the link.    You can sell $500 January 2012 puts for $28 right now, but I imagine you would advocate waiting for a market pullback before making that kind of commitment.
What about smaller publicly traded mobile advertising companies, or mobile software companies?  
Thx.

Phil

Goog explanation of QE.

Everytime I think about what they are doing my head wants to explode.

Is it possible that QE is nothing more than the governments way to discretely save, bailout, give money to, reserect, prop up, (call it what you want) the banks at the taxpayers expense and give the the time and money they need to recover from the huge mess the got themselves in from making bad loans?

Happy Snow Day.   I’m staying home today so I might as well catch up on some stocks…
I was called away in two buy/writes I had in a small IRA (NLY and GE), so I want a replacement trade I can put on and forget about.   A nice dividend paying stock in the $20-30 range.  Suggestions?

IF you mean by ‘ nice’ in the 5% range, plus a sell-call kicker, BMY has been very nice.
Just raised the div by .01 to 1.32. Trades in the mid 20s.
I’m receivng 10% on ZF, ZTR and other closed end funds if you want to up your risk profile.

That’s the general idea, Flip.  On BMY, you get $5 back from the combined put/call sells and add in dividend means you make about 25% if the stock is flat for the year.  This is a very small IRA so I don’t have as much leeway to make adjustments.   Is BMY your favorite drug?  I could use some pharma exposure.

HRB   Worth another buy/write on today’s weakness?

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