Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Yesterday’s action was rather interesting. Just when you think they were going to continue to kill em?They run em. Of course the flip side of that is true too- Just when you think they are going to run them? They kill em.
All of which makes for a volatile situation on the surface but also starts to have the look and feel of a trading range being developed in the indexes. We’ll find out soon enough.
For us our focus thru year end currently (subject to charge per the market action as we go) is that of individual issues. We have a lot of issues setting up on the longside via Pullbacks Off Highs (POH) patterns showing up HOWEVER one catch, we’ve yet to see them break to the upside with conviction. Not a big deal for us as we have an outstanding month going and are in no hurry to jump headfirst into the fray. Patience is what its all about.
Does everyone know they’re ABC’s?
One look at the daily index charts tells the story. We’ve been talking about an ABC down affair when viewing the daily charts and that stance is still potentially in play.
In addition to that we can also build a case for us still being in the B wave (errrr from the looks of today’s action – were in?) Now here is the interesting point. This B wave that we are in looks to be composed of? You got it another ABC (or 3 waves up). We’ve labeled that 1? 2? 3? in blue on the charts below.
IF this is true? Then finally here comes the C wave. If not? then we just stay in this nauseating trading range that is being developed.
Current Game Plan
So here is the bottom line through year end. We buy weakness and we’ll use the 50-day average to define our risk once in a position. We’ll also want to try to be investors (longer term) and hang on to some through the end of year or thereabouts (now if only we could get a pullback that’s meaningful and stays above the 50 day average here). As for trading here too we’ll want to do some hit and runs while at the same time holding a position for the longer into year end push. Said another way? Keep a core position and trade around with some too.
Keep in mind some names will pullback and others won’t. There is a strong possibility that we’ll start seeing names trade to the beat of their own drum from here and we can start to selectively nibble all along here on the long side.
SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
NONE
LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
ALXN
NEW NAME
WFM
NEW NAME
BJRI
NEW NAME
11-8 Check out those big daily ranges over the last week. A little wicked if you ask me.
DLTR
NEW NAME
11-7 Three words: Pullback Off Highs
BIIB
NEW NAME
CELG
11-8 All of the above have "That Look" the nice uptrend and pulling back off highs simple as that.
VHC
FOSL
11-8 See that upside crossover of the pink line with conviction? Neither do I. Now? this issue is way too far away from any meaningful chart pattern we can work with on the longside here so this name gets deleted.
RP
AMZN
11-3 Still needs some sort of pullback to get me interested as there is a lot of thin air from here to the 200 day zone. Weakness folks, its what we are looking for, meaningful weakness of a few days. That pretty much goes for just about everything out there.
CRM
VMW
11-8 This stock has yet to form any meaningful POH pattern that we can work with for the time being. Therefore we’ll delete this name from the watch list till it can develop one. This goes for CRM above too.
Remember, only the best and forget the rest.
BIDU
==============================
FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
GLD
OIH
11-3 This index actually came down and tagged the 50 day average.
==============================
CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
NOT YOU’RE EMOTIONS!
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
BWLD (We are long 125 shares of this at 64.13 as of 11-4-11)
11-8 Just building out a nice big POH trend channel above the 50 day.
11-7 Per our weekend notes, notice where it stopped cold today? Yep right around 65 imagine that. Why? Its this POH trend channel resistance for the time being.
11-6 Some would say the pivot point is 67.25 we say nope, its around 65 and a break above the pink line. Alternative entry points folks alternative entry points. If this issue were to also get slammed to the 50 day or just general market weakness we’d consider adding to our position as well.
AAPL (We are long 25 shares of this at 398.56 as of 11-1-11)
11-8 Looks good here, will it stick? Who knows. for now we are fine with our position but we do want to add to it at some point, we’d just prefer to do so on weakness.
11-6 To our New York city subscribers, heads up don’t even bother going to the flagship store there as you won’t get in the door its so packed from what we’ve heard that goes for the wee hours in the morning as they are open 24 hours a day there. Just saying.
11-2 On weakness we want a bit more of this name, bring on the face of fear trade!
Keep in mind that on Nov. 11th Iphone4s is released to the public in Hong Kong and Korea and we all know they are hi tech gadget junkies
MAKO (We are long 100 shares of this at 37.37 as of 11-1-11)
11-8 EARNINGS ARE DUE AFTER THE CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY. For now our stance is to hang on thru earnings as we only have a whopping 100 shares.
11-6 By the way SPRD also reports on 11-9 and if that stock gets slammed and is still above the 50 day? We might want to take a piece of it too.
11-2 IF this issue were to get slammed to the green line either on its own or on an earnings event we’d probably add to our position.
SHORTSIDE
CAT (We are short 200 shares of this at 95.68 as of 11-3-11)
