Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Courtesy of David of All About Trends
WOW! Folks I could write a book on all the technical and emotional action over the last few days!. All classic broken record stuff we talk about around here everyday.
In Wednesday and Friday’s Newsletter:
"Being short can be just as dangerous especially AFTER we fell like we have.
We sure would NOT be selling anything short right here. If we wouldn’t be selling anything short here should I be selling at all? Well yes if we’re one of those emotionally impulsive types who loves to get emotionally whipsawed we would be, BUT that is not who we are at All About Trends."
Aren’t you glad you never took counsel of your fears and held on in the face of fear? Better still, if you had short positions aren’t you glad you heeded our advice and walked away from that side of the market? Yes, I know it was pretty gloomy out there but as we’ve always said: Its darkest just before the dawn!
We’ve talked also numerous times about being ATTACHED TO OUTCOME and now you know why we warn against it and against targets. How do you all think those who are firmly convinced we were headed to a full blown breakdown are feeling today. Remember Wall St. has a way of doing exactly the opposite of what most think its going to do. If everyone is super bearish? Watch out because Wall st. is gunning for you and vice versa.
Sometimes the risk of not being there is greater than the risk of being there.
Over the weekend we said:
First off let us say we wouldn’t read too much into Wednesday or Friday’s low volume holiday trade which amplifies moves in both directions.
We’re not saying we can’t short term go lower but we will say the bulk of the damage is done to the downside baring a scare ’em out opening downside move. It all depends upon whether the market on Monday wants to run with the Black Friday retail numbers and inflict the most pain possible to the short sellers who are firmly convinced we are going to heck in a hand basket after we already have.
If the market is looking for positive news it can hang its hat on (and it is and always does when we get into these type of markets) and inflict pain on the short sellers who are emotionally attached to short term chasing a bus here it is. But again, it’s all about what transpires after the opening dust settles. If we have one of those famous gap ups that never looks back? Well then we are on our way higher for a bit.
Not to mention we all know around here what Wall street does with fear right? They buy Nervous Nellies fear that’s what.
NOTE TO NELLIE! You need to subscribe! , aren’t you tired of listening to you’re fears?
We also talked about the falling bullish wedge over the weekend and here we are, a classic longside technical pattern.
In Wednesday and Friday’s Newsletter;
"Being short can be just as dangerous especially AFTER we fell like we have.
We sure would NOT be selling anything short right here. If we wouldn’t be selling anything short here should I be selling at all? Well yes if we’re one of those emotionally impulsive types who loves to get emotionally whipsawed we would be, BUT that is not who we are at All About Trends."
11-27 So for us the game plan is:
IF we bust through the falling bullish wedge and go on a short term run great we make some major headway as we are well positioned in the names that the market runs to whenever they run em and have a bunch of killer Pullback Off Highs (POH) on deck in the watch list we can take pieces of on the long side too.
11-28 See the go to names today? AAPL, AMZN, DECK , CVLT etc etc etc? Huge ALL huge.
SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
NONE — 11-27 WE DO NOT CHASE BUSES OR SHORT STOCKS THAT ARE EXTENDED TO THE DOWNSIDE.
And that is exactly what you would be doing by going short here as you are late to that fast and furious party. Just remember like we’ve seen this year markets can spin on a dime. This means both directions. We’ve seen big swings higher and big swings lower all the while lesser emotional types get whipsawed and tend to make emotional decisions at the absolute wrong time.
Said another way buying strength as we’ve shown you (unless you caught that first up day and were a super fast get in get out trader type) has been a losers game. The flipside to that is that shorting weakness has also been just as deadly a game like we’ve shown you (unless you caught that 1st down day and were a super fast get in get out trader type) at the August lows and Oct. lows. Keep in mind at the Aug. and Oct. lows everyone then was super bearish and the news was just as glum, that’s exactly what one wants to see, hear and feel at lows.
LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
GLNG
NUAN
FFIV
NEW NAME TO WATCH and we stress watch due to today’s action
FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
GLD
.
OIH
CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
NOT YOUR EMOTIONS!
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
NUS (We are long 250 shares of this at 46.42 as of 11-28-11)
CVLT (We are long 150 shares of this at 45.58 as of 11-28-11)
FIO (We are long 250 shares of this at 30.65 as of 11-25-11)
AMZN (We are long 75 shares of this at 204.56 as of 11-18-11)
DECK (We are long 100 shares of this at 102.67 as of 11-17-11)
11-17 We did some nibbling on weakness in the face of fear at trend channel support just like we always do. Now? We sweat it out . So what IF (not saying its going to not saying it isn’t as I have no clue and neither does anyone else) this issue went down to the 200 day average as the markets tag the 50 day support level? Well we’d be down about 11 points or around the 10% mark. IF that were to happen should we stop out knowing its a support zone just because we’d be down 10%? or 1/2% of one percent impact to the overall portfolio? Nope.
RAX (We are long 250 shares of this at 42.54 as of 11-15-11)
11-20 Recently we’ve touched upon using the 50 day as a guide. A point we want to make with this issue is that it could come down to the 50 day average and you know what? Its uptrend would still be intact.
BIDU (We are long 100 shares of this at 136.25 as of 11-11-11)
VHC (We are long 300 shares of this at 21.64 as of 11-11-11)
WFM (We are long 150 shares of this at 66.48 as of 11-10-11)
BWLD (We are long 125 shares of this at 64.13 as of 11-4-11)
(We are long 75 shares of this at 62.33 as of 11-10-11)
11-27 Friday’s action wasn’t pretty but that’s holiday trade for you.
AAPL (We are long 25 shares of this at 398.56 as of 11-1-11)
(We are long 25 shares of this at 391.78 as of 11-10-11)
11-21 Our notes from 11-10 still apply to this name.
11-13 Recently we saw a few blurbs about how this issue is totally damaged because its below the 50 day. We get that on the surface HOWEVER look at the overall trend of this stock. It doesn’t trade off the 50 day, it trades off of a big green trend channel.
11-10 So lets play "What If" . What if this issue goes to the green trendline? Well first off its a support level. So would we want to stop out there? Knowing its a support level? And if it were to blow thru there and head to the 200 day average at 262 would we want to stop out there? Knowing its even more major support?
What impact would that have to the total value of our portfolio IF (not saying its going to not saying its not as I don’t know neither does anyone else) it went to the 200 day?. Let’s see we own 50 shares at 395.17 and this issue makes up 11% of our total portfolio. So IF it were to go to 362.00? we’d be down on the position 8.3% on its own. But what about the total impact to our overall portfolio? 9/10ths of one stinking percent!
On top of that? IF we would go there and stop out (which we wouldn’t do because its only a moment in time subject to the next moment in time) it would be a 1658.00 dollar loss. know what? We are up 3300.00+ for the month. So now how much damage would that be to us.
By using trade size risk management it really allows us to never really get flustered or in trouble. This allows us to always stay centered and objective because it really doesn’t mess with our most important asset which is our state of mind. Folks use this conversation as an example for yourself to think things forward and thru. It really helps calm the mind.
MAKO (We are long 100 shares of this at 37.37 as of 11-1-11)
SHORT SIDE
NONE
