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Thursday Thrust – Bernanke Boost or Bust?

We have liftoff!

Like a rocket that has fired it's stage one boosters, this market is taking off on QE power.  At the moment, we have a very dangerous and combustible mix of rumors and minor stimulus – like this morning's 0.25% rate cut by China, which works out to roughly $100Bn in stimulus and is good for 10 points on the S&P.  

As I mentioned yesterday, it's about $10Bn per point to buy a move on the S&P and it's now a question of what kind of rally the G20 are prepared to pay for this round.  This is the first reduction since the depths of 2008's financial crisis, and follows on the heels of China's banking regulator delaying for a year stricter bank capital rules. Beijing has also been seen fast-tracking previously tied-up infrastructure projects.  In another easing move, banks will now be allowed to offer loans at a 20% discount from the benchmark rate, whereas before they were allowed just 10%.  

UUP WEEKLYChina is in much worse shape the people realize with mountains of iron-ore built up along China's eastern seaboard.  The stockpiles hit an all-time high of 120 million tons as steelmakers hold off on orders.  Meanwhile, the copper is piled up so high in warehouses that the weight is cracking the floors while "at least" 30 Panamax (biggest that fit through the canal) cargo boats full of coal are floating off China's coast because traders who bought them have been unable to resell them to end-users   

China’s biggest auto-dealer association said carmakers need to scale back their sales targets or sweeten incentives because the worsening glut of vehicles across the nation’s dealerships is unsustainable. Average inventory carried at Chinese dealerships bloated to a level exceeding two months of sales by the end of May, compared with more than 45 days at the end of April. That’s forcing dealers to deepen discounts and sell cars at a loss to meet mandatory sales targets set by automakers, he said. “Dealers can’t shoulder the burden anymore,” said Luo Lei, whose association is authorized by the central government and represents 2,100 dealership groups. “Their backs are broken.”

Safir LaunchSo we have ignition, the thrusters are firing but our payload is VERY HEAVY and we're going to need a lot of fuel to lift this market back into a sustainable orbit.  Fortunately, gravity (the Dollar) has gotten lighter as it pulled back from 83.54 on the last day of May, all the way back to 82 this morning – a very nice 2% reduction in gravity that is helping to float the market back to our 5% lines but it's still a very long trip to our "Must Hold" levels, which now represent roughly a 50% retrace of the drop – which is EXACTLY what they were predicted to do all year.  

But charts do not matter today, all that matters today is whether or not Uncle Ben and the Fed are ready to fire those stage two booster or whether we suffer a critical failure around 10 am, when and if the Fed Chairman fails to ignite the appropriate level of market excitement and we may fall gently back to our lows as we once again shift our focus to the G20 or we may blow up, along with the bullish expectations that have driven the market for the past two days – in which case, I don't know if the G20 will have enough fuel to pull us out of the tailspin that a lack of Fed action is likely to put us in.  

QQQ WEEKLYAs planned, we took some bullish money and ran yesterday and prepared a few bearish hedges – just in case Bernanke fails us this morning and we need to pull the rip cord.  At the moment, we have been lucky enough to call a top and we are "poking" at what we HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) is a bottom but the SOLE premise to our bullish plays is that Uncle Ben and the other Central Banksters will save us with MORE FREE MONEY.

Even if we are "saved" – it won't do crap to fix the overall global situation which will, one day, either blow up in our faces or dissolve in a massive wave of hyper-inflation.  It's a terrible time to trade the markets but your investment "advisers" won't tell you that because they don't get paid when you are in cash and the TV people won't tell you that because they want your eyeballs glued to the screen instead of staring at bikinis on the beach and the newsletter people won't tell you because they want your ad and subscription dollars but I'm telling you because I think it's more important for you to preserve wealth now and we can all play the markets later.  

What we're doing in this current environment is gambling – not investing.  Sure we can make a ton of money gambling when we're right but we can also lose it when we're wrong and the Global cross-currents of the moment make right and wrong a coin flip on any given day.   

If you are a great day trader, a great hedger, a great cash manager – then GREAT – it's fun to play a choppy, crazy market but, if you are just a guy trying to invest some money – this is a very dangerous time to be doing so.  If we get MORE FREE MONEY from the Fed at 10am – it will be a great time to invest but between now (9am) and then (60 minutes) – who can say?  

Be careful out there! 


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  1. 1020

    Good Morning!

  2. aaronc

    Good morning all. Still doing more listening than talking so as not to insert foot in mouth, super glad to be here.

  3. lionel

    Oil back to shorting level…but let s wait for Big Ben.

  4. rainman

    aaronc / foot — Opening your mouth for foot insertion is a great way to learn and Phil has large feet :)

  5. etradingsignals

    Is any one using a iPhone/iPad RSS reader to access this site? Have u found any good rss readers that can push updates on the phone? I am hoping to find a reader that can alert me when Phil posts something. Any pointers would be appreciated.

  6. Pharmboy

  7. lionel

    LULU is getting punished in pre market ($65)…Congrats to all the yoga-haters :)

  8. stjeanluc

  9. exec

    Phil

     
    Here's a post from yesterday that you missed.
     
    Phil,
     
    You mentioned selling into the excitement. 
     
    What is the intent of you're income portfolio, to hold until expiration, or buy back puts once they hit a certain profile level.   If sell, what % is dump worthy?

  10. rainman

    BHP, CLF and FCX seem to be shrugging off the glut of iron ore/copper in China.  I'm thinking a bottom in the miners might be in but also think we may retest it along with the markets if Uncle Ben doesn't open his pockets. If we breakdown from there, I'll be backing up the truck.  Dividends and PE's are looking attractive.

  11. jthoma

    lionel- I finally got one with LULU after missing TPX

  12. jabobeast

    FU BBY!!!

  13. rainman

    lionel / LULU — It's not about yoga.  Those pants look great on women and they know it!  Nothing like an instant butt.

  14. jacalynm

    Hi Phil not sure if you saw this at the end of the chat from yesterday 
     
    Well Sensei, I put my time in and have been reading alot. Was finally ready to pull trigger in Income Port on Monday and unfortuantely found out Scottrade does not allow put selling UGH. It took till today to set up and fund my account and now everything you recommended (congratulations on awesome calls) is half off. And that's not the kind of sale a girl wants! I know your mantra is tomorrow is another day. So do I stay in cash? Thanks J

  15. lol730

    /ES up, but TLT is not down. In fact it's slightly up as well.
    we may see this futures pop fading fast

  16. morxlntway

    my mouth is so full of feet i had to drink my coffee with a straw

  17. lionel

    jthoma/ nice one!
    I really like their products/store concept so i found it hard to bet against them

  18. stjeanluc

    Economic Numbers:

    Japan Leading Index / 95.1 (95.1 expected)
    France Unemployment Rate / 10.0% (9.9% expected)
    Switzerland Unemployment Rate / 3.0% (3.0% expected)
    Switzerland CPI (MoM) / 0.0% (0.0% expected)
    Switzerland CPI (YoY) / -1.0% (-1.0% expected)
    Great Britain PMI Services / 53.3 (52.4  expected) 
    Great Britain BoE Rate Decision / 0.5% (0.5% expected)
    US Initial Jobless Claim / 377K (378K expected)

    At 10:00 AM we have Bernanke's testimony to US Congress and at 10:30 AM we have the Natural Gas Report.

  19. lionel

    Rainman/ now you are talking like a real yogi..

  20. stjeanluc

    I don't want people rushing to their gas station worried about shortages, but oil inventories dropped yesterday for the first time in a while:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/6/6/weekly-oil-inventories-drop-for-first-time-since-march.html

  21. rainman

    FB — The new FB business plan: German Agency to Mine Facebook to Assess Creditworthiness  Disgusting.

  22. stjeanluc

    Over $10K with this one…. 

  23. kyw206

    Phil/USO   Are we still holding the June USO 32  puts from the 25K portfolio from yesterday? 

  24. stjeanluc

    Back on track here as well!

  25. stjeanluc

  26. angelcur

    RATE TEMPLE i am selling a bit more inot this ams froth i am v bullish but taking a bit more off the table as the REB speaks at 10

  27. kinkistyle

    FB/rainman:  I have decided to turn my facebook account into a personal P.R. campaign and only post updates that make me appear thoughtful, caring, philanthropic and responsible with deep belief in good Christian values.   Its the "resume-dressing" of the 21st century.  

  28. stjeanluc

  29. Burrben

    SVU has been really sucky during this rally…  -44% vs +5% for broad market
    FU SVU!
    https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=0&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1339099200000&chddm=42619&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXSP:.INX;INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSE:SVU&ntsp=0

  30. yodi

    Phil we do have still a loose gun in holding XLF long jan14 12c should we sell some calls now or wait still

  31. stjeanluc

    The MoMo portfolio is in cash now with $2055 in the bank!

    I'll set up the new Peter Strangle portfolio during the day.

  32. Phil

    Good morning – cash, Cash, CASH is King ahead of Bernanke at 10.  Nice pop to lighten up into and that would go for the small portfolios too if I weren't playing them for an aggressively bullish hunch that Ben has no choice at this point, other than to at least strongly indicate that additional accommodative policy is likely warranted.  

    Oil popped on us on QE out of China but that's fine as the USO puts were mainly a hedge so we'll wait until 10 to move them.  Dollar is testing 82 and below 82 is going to be nice and bullish and TLT is down to $124.47 so make sure you lightened up on those in the small portfolios if you are following.  

    Euro is $1.262, Pound is $1.559, 79.68 Yen to the Dollar is pushing the Nikkei (/NKD) to 8,715 and EUR/CHF is $1.2011, which is BETTER than 1.209 for the Swiss (more Euros to the weaker Franc) so the Euro is strong this morning while the Dollar and Yen fall – so much anticipation of easing from Bernanke is VERY DANGEROUS!!!  

    Gold is $1,624, silver $29.53, copper $3.42, nat gas $2.40 and gasoline flew back to $2.72 despite the huge build yesterday – also on China's rate cut this morning.  

    If the S&P fails to hold 1,310 (-2.5%) and/or the Nas fails 2,850 (-5%) or the RUT fails 760 (-5%) – these are our bearish trade ideas on deck.  The current prices are cheaper entries as we're up a lot from yesterday's comment on them so the trick is not to pay more.  The NYSE is right on 7,600 on the morning pop so a good bull/bear signal to watch as well.  The Dow, as usual, is too silly to worry about.  

     

    KO Aug $67.50 puts at .55 are a nice hedge – kind of like a long put as KO is still very high but depends on China and other emerging markets for a lot of sales.  Also, NY Big Gulp ban is silly but can impact sales.  Idea of long put is that shouldn't lose too much if market pops back.  $65 puts are .35 so .15 on an unlikely $2.50 pop in KO is not a bad penalty against a good triple if KO drops 10%.  

    T is s a flight to safety at the moment but there is no safety if we crash and the Oct $29 puts are .50 while the Oct $32 puts are $1.04 so a double on a 10% drop there.  

    V also getting interesting with the Sept $95 puts at $2.05.  The $105 puts are $4 so another one that can double on a 10% drop.  

    SDOW is 3x Ultra-Short on Dow.  July $21/25 bull call spread is $1.40 with SDOW at $23.14 so a nice way to play a further move down in the Dow with a $2.60 upside potential (185%) with no margin requirement so, even in an IRA, you could put $2,800 into 20 of the spreads, put a stop at $1,800 (.80) and risk $1,000 to make $5,200 on a further downturn. 

    SDS July $16/20 bull call spread at $1.20, selling Jan $15 puts for $1.15 is net .05 on the $4 spread that's .57 in the money at $16.57 (S&P 1,327) - This one I did update!

    Oil is testing $87 (/CL) and is a great short here.  $86 is still too much based on yesterday's inventory.  If Ben fails to stimulate – it will drop like a rock but very, very dangerous to say the least. 

    Cash is so much more relaxing!!!  

    At the open: Dow +1.04% to 12545. S&P +1.13% to 1330. Nasdaq +1.01% to 2873.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.3%. 10-yr -0.06%. 5-yr -0.02%.

    Commodities: Crude +2.23% to $86.92. Gold -0.48% to $1626.35.

    Currencies: Euro +0.28% vs. dollar. Yen +0.67%. Pound -0.57%.

    Market preview: European and U.S. equity securities areall green following the PBOC's rate cuts and other easing measures, which sent oil higher also. The S&P Benchmark is +0.75%. Now the focus shifts to Ben Bernanke, who's due to appear in Congress today, to see if he'll add to the easing signals sent out yesterday by three Fed officials. Later: Quarterly Services Report, Consumer Credit, Fed speak

    10:00 Hearing: Economic Outlook (Bernanke)

    10:00 Quarterly Services Report

    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    11:00 Fed's Lockhart: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

    1:15 PM Fed's Kocherlakota: Monetary policy

    3:00 PM Consumer Credit

    3:30 PM Fed's Fisher: 'Implications of Renminbi Internationalization for the U.S. and Global Economy'

    4:30 PM Money Supply

    4:30 PM Fed Balance Shee

    Initial Jobless Claims: 377K vs. 379K consensus (prior week revised to 389K from 383K). Continuing claims +34K to 3.29M.

    "It's not the job of a central bank to manipulate the CPI," says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. "This is a foolish and primitive mandate." The job is to ensure financial stability, of which the ECB has shockingly failed. "The ECB can halt the immediate crisis in 10 minutes by acting as a real central bank." (transcript of live web chat)

    China's rate cut means this weekend's data dump is going to be very bad, says Bloomberg's Michael McDonough, who adds the move implies more substantial measures to help growth are coming. Allowing banks to offer a 20% discount to the official rate suggests the country is moving closer to interest rate liberalization. 

    The clock is ticking for Diamond Foods (DMND), according to Jefferies. If the company files its restated earnings on time, Jefferies sees a rally, while another extension could mean a stinger of a selloff again for investors. June 11 is the deadline.

    The inclusion of iPads by global carriers Singapore Airlines (SINGF.PK) and Jetstar (QUBSF.PK) on flights has been a raging success. Not only are passengers pleased with the diversion, but the cost savings of ditching the electronics equipment and wiring to provide inflight entertainment is enormous. By at least one estimate, a Boeing 777 could be 7% lighter by going with iPads.

  33. aussie260

    TLT / Stjean
    Didn't we close out half of the TLT position in $5k/$25k portfolios yesterday?
     
    I do think for the $5KP and $25KP, we should take $1.70 and run on 1/2 the TLT Sept $115 puts as they were rolls that had losses so nice to lock back in some gains and put money back on the side that we can re-deploy to roll again if things go against us.  

  34. angelcur

    BEN no explicit mention

  35. Phil

    Don't worry Aaron – we all started somewhere before putting in our 10,000 hours.  

    Good call Lionel.  

    AMZN getting to be a sexy short again.  Oct $160 puts at $4 can be nice movers as the $180 puts are $7 and the $140 puts are $2 so $3 up and $2 down reward/risk at that spot but the up for AMZN topped out at $233 and was soundly rejected last time.

    No help from Ben in the comments – Knee jerk selling of course but ambiguous language and now we have Q&A after the speech so don't count chickens yet but – Wheeee!  

     

  36. stjeanluc

    TLT / Aussie – The portfolios now have 1/2 the previous positions so it's correct as far as I know.

  37. angelcur

    maybe the testimony will yield a nugget..i am thinking the banks want R elected..thus the fed will do nothing and rationalize the punt by shilling our strength and the need for europe to handle its own junk(ER)

  38. stjeanluc

  39. aussie260

    TLT/St Jean – Thanks, I have been down in Sydney the past week, still catching up!

  40. rainman

    "It's not the job of a central bank to manipulate the CPI," says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. "This is a foolish and primitive mandate." The job is to ensure financial stability, of which the ECB has shockingly failed. "The ECB can halt the immediate crisis in 10 minutes by acting as a real central bank." (transcript of live web chat)
     
    Emphasis Translation: -- Print Money!

  41. yodi

    Phil your Jul GOOG play is looking good!!! 590/620

  42. rainman

    Really?  They need to site Ben's resume?  Really?

  43. rainman

    angel / junk — That's all europe has been doing!  Handling their own "junk". :)

  44. jthoma

    Guy on Bloomberg just said a mouthful- " if you think 1.6% rate on the ten year is holding up our growth and 1.4% will stimulate it- you do not understand economics. We have a structural problem, we have a leadership problem, and we have a deficit problem leading to debt problems." By George- I think we have a bingo- too bad no one else gets it!

  45. kevinb63v

    Phil,
      If you're looking to short AMZN, would you continue to hold a JAN 13 $150 sold Put? 

  46. angelcur

    RAINMAN a EURO variation of 'shaking hands with the unemployed'

  47. yshenhar

    Is oil a short again?

  48. rainman

    angel / variation — Oh, that's just cruel! :)

  49. jthoma

    oil pulling back nicely- good call Phil!

  50. millcreek

    phil,
    tks for the cjes and the learning……..mc

  51. lionel

    Aussie260/ Finally a PSW member in Sydney!

  52. sns1

    Phil- some reasons to be less bearish about Europe (1) Ackerman (ex DB CEO, and personal advisor to Merkel) said other day Germany will support Europe, (2) Germans are looking to solve Spain before Greece election so that they can mitigate a shit show from Greece. Spain wants special treatment and may get it because of their size and fact that they have committed to reforms (ie the have earned some credibility). The difference between govt bailout (where Spain uses capital to inject equity to banks) vs direct bank bailout (where some EU entity injects capital but Spain still “indemnifies” the EU entity, so basically an off balance sheet liability) seems irrelevant when determining creditworthiness of Spain but perhaps optics are all that matter politically. Will be interesting…

  53. Burrben

    Ahh, lighted up 20K of tied up margin into the run up.  Still holding some losers, but getting closer to fine.  Decided to listen to the WOPR

  54. Phil

    Gold spiked down to $1,600 – that was fun!  Oil hit $86 very fast but holding it so not too bearish yet.   TLT still under $125 and Euro holding up OK as Dollar stays below 82.25 but let's watch that line.  

    Intent/Exec – The intent is to make $4,000 a month as safely as possible.  If I had a system for knocking over milk cans at the carnival that would get $4,000 a month safely, I'd do that but, in the context of the market – whatever works whenever it works.  As with anything – we have to constantly evaluate our positions and decide when to take profits or losses but, ideally, we want to get it to a balanced point where one adjustment day per month should keep it going.  

    BBY/Jabob:  

     Best Buy (BBY -4.1%) founder and Chairman Richard Schulze is exploring his options for his 20.1% stake in the retailer as he resigns a couple of weeks early. Schulze's departure, including as a director – he had planned to stay in that role until 2013 – follows his failure to tell the board's audit committee about allegations against ex-CEO Brian Dunn. (PR)

    Half off/Jacalyn – Not sure what you mean by that exactly but don't go chasing – especially bullish plays.  The Income Portfolio trades will either come back or they won't but, either way, we'll find more things to trade tomorrow, next week, next month – etc – so there is never a good reason to chase old picks.  As I noted above, cash is the best place to be unless you are a seasoned gambler.  Ben is being a let-down so now we are short and we'll have to see what levels hold up without a commitment for more QE today.  Obviously, from my above comments – I"m not thinking it goes so well…    That's good for you though, as we'll hopefully get another cheap shot at those TWIL entries.  

    Inventories/StJ – Oh no!!!  Of course the drop was less than the average drop for this time of year…  

    FAS Money/StJ – Up $10,000???  CASH!!!!   (we started with $2,000) 

    Same goes for IWM at $5K and the $5KP at $1,435 for that matter.  I guess we'll leave them up but holy cow – any rational person would take that and run in this market

    FB/Kinki – Good plan, you'll be Pope in no time! 

    SVU/Burr – So not sexy it hurts.  

    XLF/Yodi – As a GAMBLE, I think you have to wait until Ben is done with Q&A – this market only needs the merest hint of QE and it's off to the races.  Amazingly CNBC cut off Bernankes first question already – forcing their viewers to fly blind – really sickening.  

    TLT/$25KP, $5KP, Aussie – Yes, taking 1/2 and running was the plan! 

    Ben is having to say NO MORE QE! many different ways – no one wants to hear it.

  55. rainman

    Burrben — WOPR?

  56. aussie260

    Sydney/Lionel – Well…mostly in Northern California these days, but Sydney is home as well…
     PSW trading is a lot easier in the Pacific time zone!

  57. dclark41

    He sounds like he doesn't want to lead the next round of fixes. He keeps reiterating that QE is not a panacea and how he thinks a coordinated effort (Congress and the FED) would be much more effective than relying solely on the FED. He carefully defended the tax cuts making sure to say that he wasn't saying they were right, but implying that fiscal damage would be done if they were to expire.

  58. rainman

    aussie / PSW — You should have it easy in Sydney with access to tomorrow's headlines :)

  59. Burrben

    rainman – Yep, that WOPR.  
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeOHEU7Ykyg
    Around 2:20min in the advice comes…..

  60. jthoma

    LULU seems to have shaken retail today- XRT back elow 58

  61. aaronc

    Phil/ Thanks for the encouragement. I'm well into my 10,000 hours. First job as a lad was doing data entry for the Capital Group/American Funds and I was hooked after sitting in on the fund manager meetings and being blown away by the capital being thrown around. Alas, corporate world was not for me. Self taught the rest of the way but it's go time now, managing grandma's retirement account so the income portfolio is spot on for my situation.

  62. rainman

    CNBS taking a lot of commercial breaks trying to avoid the bad news. Live feed: http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/

  63. 1020

    Took some profits on ZLCS (.76 – 1.13) 
     
    Thanks Pharm!  :)

  64. Phil

    GOOG/Yodi – Let's hope it holds up, Ben not sounding very good so far. 

    Bloomberg/Jthom – Yep, that pretty much hits it right on the head.  

    AMZN/Kevin – Not THAT short!  I don't think they're going down to $160 – it's just a put with a good risk/reward on a $20-40 drop but, of course, your short put will increase in value and you'd have to ride it out so it depends how badly you REALLY want to own AMZN for net whatever.

    Oil/Yshen – Where were you at $87?  Yep, up on China easing but no US easing trumps that (but EU easing would trump our lack of it so the ball is still in play).  

    Thanks Jthom. 

    You're welcome Mill.  

    Good rundown Sns – thanks.  Fly in ointment is Merkel's faction is on the ropes and the hounds are nipping at her heels – more so in a multi-party system – makes it very easy to make a misstep and very tough to call the outcome.  Doing what's best for Europe may end Merkel's Government and ending Merkel's Government may be the worst possible thing for Europe so what should Merkel do?  

    WOPR/Burr – Some of the best investing advice ever given.  

    Wow, nat gas plunged to $2.31 on a pretty small build: 

    EIA Natural Gas Inventory: + 62bcf. Futures -0.9% to $2.39.

    So much for CHK $18….

    Oil bouncing off $85.50.  

  65. angelcur

    so this really puts eurozombies front and center to solve their own crisis..china is out of money..we aren't going to help..its on germany now..would anheeeela capitulate if all of europe wore brown one day a year?

  66. lionel

    Rainman/
    YEs it is Friday down here already.
    What is it that you really want to know?
    Ok let me help you…Ben said yesterday NO QE FOR YOU! :)
    Aussie260/ Time difference with the US is hard all over Asia.
     
     
     

  67. rainman

    (Reuters) – Fitch Ratings reiterated on Thursday it would cut its sovereign credit rating for the United States next year if Washington cannot come to grips with its deficits and create a "credible" fiscal consolidation plan.

  68. rainman

    lionel — Winning lottery numbers please.

  69. morxlntway

    time dif – maybe they should pass a law against it.

  70. Phil

    37M on Dow at 10:45 – certainly there is no rush for the exits so far.  I expect volume and selling to pick up as Ben continues to deny, Deny, DENY the QE Bulls.  

    Sounds like a good start to me.. 

    CNBS/Rain – What a joke of a station.  That suntan lotion commercial was so critical?    Also, keep in mind this is editing – they know who will be asking the next question when they cut away so they "edit" what they don't want their readers to hear.  

    Europe/Angel – And this is rational action by Bernanke.  We can't fund Europe's bail-out.  They need to be pushed to make their own action and Bernanke does not want to pump commodity prices back up as keeping inflation in check is critical before he does roll out his next round of easing.  

    All breaking down now – Dow is lagging so best short to chase at the moment (12,470 on /YM and $124.65 on DIA at 12,478).  

  71. bobhu

    aussie260, why did you say that "PSW trading is a lot easier in the Pacific time zone!"?  I thought Eastern Time is the easiest one.  Thanks.  

  72. jabobeast

    a BBY,FB, or ABX long after seeing the news today ;-)
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mYE4XSMTAmU

  73. morxlntway

    sure shoulda taken out the Jun 15 CHKs this morning. Well, maybe we'll get that double down after all.

  74. aussie260

    Time zone / Bobhu – I meant easier in Pacific than Sydney…where it is currently 12:58am and the US markets still have all day to run.  Makes for a sleepless night in Sydney!!

  75. 1020

    Phil/Bernanke not sounding very good….
     
    A little more fiber in his diet may help…..  :)

  76. rainman

    bobhu / pacific — We only work half days on the West coast, market closes at 1pm.

  77. Lincoln

    Phil: LULU
    Namaste!  Send me your pant size and I'll send you a pair of yoga pants.   :)

  78. rustle123

    Notice there have been an increasing amount of commercials for Sodastream on CNBC.  No wonder Cramer is so high on them.  The commercials are so low budget and now the product which they were originally pushing to be like a deluxe appliance is another wacky kitchen gadget.

  79. Inkarri19

    Morning All – Ben just said he doubts whether low interest rates have led to increased deficits and debts.  Amazing.

  80. 1020

    rustle123/deluxe appliance
     
    Cramers next endorsement….. :)
     
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BQFv83QJ2Y

  81. stjeanluc

    Here is Peter Strangle portfolio. I have entered the prices as provided by Peter yesterday but you will obviously get different prices today. This is just a tracking instrument not meant to be exact as we all get different quotes anyway!

    Peter, let me know if I missed anything.

  82. morxlntway

    wonder what''s up w PLX?

  83. rainman

    1020 / endorsement — Or Shimmer

  84. Phil

    $84.90!  Stop at $85.30 and congrats to the oil shorts on that one! 

    Fitch/Rain – May as well go ahead and cut now then.  More likely Greece comes up with a credible plan in two weeks.  

    43M at 10:15. 

    Yoga pants/Lincoln – Nothing relaxing about seeing me in a pair of those!  

    SODA/Rustle – the modern fondue pot – use once and then in the closet for a decade.  

    LOL 1020! 

    Europe closing in 10 mins.  Euro holding up at $1.255, Pound $1.556 but EUR/CHF back to 1.2009, which means they are back to supporting the Euro here.  

    Gold $1,588 and silver $28.48 and you're welcome to those who asked if I liked those silly metals!  

  85. rustle123

    SNL/1020
     
    That was such a classic skit and the quality of the sodastream commercial wasn't that much better.

  86. angelcur

    PHIL agreed i also had 'an agressively bullish hunch' but it seems neither of us bet on gut twitching unless its in a pile of entrails.. speaking of conjuring: seems to me market now poised for chop for a bit. … Phil has a pretty good handle on the support and resistance levels… i think we're going to see a few days of sloppy.. back/ forth trading…as PHIL has pointed this is the sort of action that causes traders to lose patience and force bad positions…for me its probably a good idea not to trade today or to even take today off….as the market works off its short tern o/b condition… either we are going to extend further and set up a good short selling opportunity….it pulls back toward support and gives us a nice buy level

  87. jthoma

    hell of a trade in oil- would like to not get stopped out as would rather see 82-:)- I bought the Julys

  88. Burrben

    Income Port 6/7 snapshot
    Decided to put this together today.  It should be pretty accurate, except for HCBK.  I'm confused on the wording, were you trying to sell a Jan14 5 straddle or not?  
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/ZMsraw_zdPGIFHfYdXdsMHNLJEdTq20IeksyP_kMH6Y
     
    HCBK – (LONG??) 50 Jan $5 calls at $1.20 ($6,000), selling 50 Jan $5 puts for .40 ($2,000 + $2,625 in margin) and selling 50 July $6 calls for .30 ($1,500, covered) for net $2,500 + $2,625 in margin with an expected return (below $6) of 29% in 45 days.  

  89. lionel

    Rainman/ Lottery results
    19, 30, 33, 48, 59, Powerball: 27
    Anything else?

  90. jthoma

    thanks Lionel but won't do much good having to split it 183 ways- LOL :)

  91. lionel

    Oil just flirting with S1…Shorts are off

  92. Phil

    All these people asking questions and not one person can ask Ben "Will we or will we not have QE3 or other accomodative policy changes in the month of June and, if so, what and when?"  Really, how hard is that?  This is why they won't elect me – I'd have the whole thing done in 5 minutes and you'd realize how useless the other 634 Congresspeople are.  

    Overbought/Angel – this is interesting:  

    NYSI

    NYMO

    Oil/Jthom – $85.25 is about the next major resistance up so I set the stop .05 over it.  That's about a .40 trailing stop and the next big hurdle to clear is $84.25 and then down to $83 should be a hard fall.  Congrats on being in it.  

    HCBK/Burr – Thanks.  That was of course long Jan $5 calls, selling $5 puts to pay for them and selling naked July $6 calls for another .30 and we're happy to cover with the stock if they get too high to roll the caller and that would still give us a nice net entry as long as we cover before $6.50 (as we sold .30 and .40) against a call away at $6 and then we'd be left with a .20 profit ($1,000) plus the naked long calls.  

    Markets holding up well so far.  Europe off their highs but not horrible.  Spain big pullback to flat and Portugal down 1% though.  

    Dollar popped 82.25 so that's bearish.  Up to the Swiss to hold the Euro up.  

     

  93. sagemm1

    I like how everyone thanks the Bernank for coming to work everyday…other than maybe Phil, how many people have someone telling them how grateful they are for taking a paycheck everyday? My guess is not that many….Would you like fries with that?  Oh thank you so much for asking and ringing up my order, not!

  94. stjeanluc

    Oil / Lionel – Lines working well for you so far!

  95. 1020

    rainman/shimmer  I miss Gilda Radner…..

  96. 1020

    Phil/overbought      Diverging charts…. What to do?…..

  97. lionel

    StJEanluc/ Ok I will pay you royalties….what is your Lululemon pants size, please? :)
    Thanks mate your lines have been spot on for the last month or so. Great job.
    Black is always in fashion….

  98. Phil

    What a ride with BBY today!  

    Oil right at my stop test ($85.30) but no cigar so far.  

    XOM still positive and CVX too – good for 20 Dow points between them so could flip the Dow for 40 or 50 lower if they break.   I will say though, that XOM and CVX are usually right when they ignore a sell-off in oil.  

    Thanks/Sage – I think Bernanke gets way too much respect.  Despite being an evil bastard working for the Banksters – Greenspan did earn people's respect over time – that's what allowed him the credibility to screw people over the way he did.  
    Bernanke hasn't done much of note except to run the presses and they treat him like he's Einstein.  Sadly, not too many people in Congress have a clue about Economics so I guess he does seem like he has all the answers to them but surely SOMEONE besides Ron Paul can challenge this guy?

    Diverging/1020 – I would have expected a short, sharp shock off today's let-down and then a rebuilding into the EU and G20 meetings.  Might still happen this afternoon and tomorrow.  

    Oil rejected at goal!  Come on – that was pretty good targeting.  8)  

  99. Phil

    By the way, for those of you who are new – the Greenspan era in a nutshell:  

  100. lionel

    Phil nice rejection call!

  101. Phil

    50M on the Dow at noon.  

    That's it for oil shorts as it held $85 that time.  Goes for $25KP too. 

    10:01 AM Quarterly Services Report: Sector revenue of $293.1B, +0.7% from prior quarter and +3.8% Y/Y.

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.66%. 10-yr +0.14%. Euro -0.15%vs. dollar. Crude +0.59% to $85.53. Gold -1.73% to $1605.95.

    12:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.67%. 10-yr +0.08%. Euro -0.12%vs. dollar. Crude +0.03% to $85.05. Gold -2.82% to $1588.05.

    Despite evident troubles now, Jim Rogers is not particularly concerned about the markets in 2012, it being an election year. The price will be paid in 2013 and 2014, he says, and it will be worse than 2008 because debt levels are higher now. "If you are not worried about 2013, please … get worried." Just a thought, but 2008 being an election year didn't help things then.

    "Watch what (the Fed is) doing, not what (it) is saying," says Jim Grant, noting the Fed's balance sheet has been contractingat a 10% annualized rate. Unless the Fed keeps buying securities, the balance sheet will continue to shrink, i.e. doing nothing is equivalent to tightening policy. It's the best reason yet, Grant says, to expect additional QE.

    Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies in front of Congress' Joint Economic Committee: The Fed is ready to act to protect the financial system and U.S. economy in the event stresses escalate, he says inprepared remarks, without outlining specific moves. 

    More from Bernanke's prepared testimony: The overall gist is less dovish than those hoping for more Fed candy may have hoped. He says the "apparent slowing" in the labor market may have much to do with seasonal adjustment issues and the weather. Consumer sentiment: Up from last year. Exports: Holding up well despite Europe. Energy: Lower prices providing lift to purchasing power.

    More from Bernanke testimony: "The Fed has made no decisions about whether to make any additional asset purchases," he says, "I wouldn't take anything off the table at this juncture." The Chairman seems particularly concerned about the so-called 2013 "fiscal cliff" when a number of stimulus measures are set to expire, and seems to indicate this may call for more Fed ease.

    Switzerland is the new China is the new meme as the SNB is as much a manipulator of the franc as the PBOC is of the yuan. The central bank's fx reserves ballooned to CHF304B in May as it hoovered up euros others were disposing of. There is evidence the SNB is then selling some of those euros to buy greenbacks and yen, limiting its losses as the euro declines. 

    Unemployment data out of France, Greece and Ireland continues to underscore the unfolding social consequences of the eurozone crisis. The French jobless rate rose to a 13-year high of 9.6% in Q1 from 9.3% in Q4 2011. Greece's March rate 21.9% vs. 21.4% in Feb., with 52.8% of 15-24 year-olds jobless. Irish Q1 unemployment 14.8% vs. 14.1% a year earlier.

    More on Fitch's Ed Parker: the analyst reiterates the agency's position on the U.S., saying he expects a downgrade if it doesn't formulate a "credible fiscal consolidation plan" after the election. Of the U.K., France and Germany, as well as the U.S., Parker says, "There is a limit to how high these government debt levels can go." 

    Should Greece leave the eurozone, Fitch would immediately downgrade Cyprus, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal, sovereign ratings analyst Ed Parker says. Parker adds that the agency would also put all the bloc's countries on a negative rating watch. – "And for all the little piggies

    Life is getting worse… In their sties with all their backing, They don't care what goes on around.   In their eyes there's something lacking, What they need's a damn good whacking. "

    Homebuilder stocks are getting a lift today from record lowmortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate dropping to 3.67% and the 15-year fixed rate declining to 2.94%. Last year at this time, the 30-year mortgage averaged 4.49% and the 15-year averaged 3.68%: (XHB +1%), (PHM +2.4%), (LEN +0.8%), (DHI +1%), TOL -6.1%, (KBH +1.4%).

     

    So Aflac (AFL) wants to be a player. The company brings on Timothy Stevens to head its newly created post of global head of trading. Stevens – formerly of BlackRock – will report to CIO Eric Kirsch, who came over last year from Goldman Sachs. Also joining is Brad Dyslin – who worked with Kirsch at Deutsche Bank – to be global head of credit at Aflac's just-opened investments office in NYC. (PR)

    Nasdaq OMX's (NDAQ) rivals slam the exchange's plans to compensate financial firms for Facebook's bungled trading debut. Direct Edge CEO William O'Brien says that Nasdaq's proposal todiscount trading fees seems "illegal," and that his firm will "vigorously object." BATS Chi-X Europe calls the scheme "a bad way to do it," while NYSE (NYX) is also unhappy.

    Reports that China has approved new steel projects, a move that could boost steel prices, sends Peabody Energy (BTU+4.1%) to the top of the S&P leader board; BTU sells coal for making steel to Asia markets. Shares of fellow coal miners also surgeANR+3.1%PCX +4.6%ACI +1.8%CLD +1.7%.

    Oh they cannot wait to screw you over with this one!  Forget peak oil… the global water crisis will "shake humanity to its core," BI's Gus Lubin writes, as two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water-stressed conditions by 2025. “As global population grows, water usage has to rise for sanitation, food production and modern energy creation," Matthew Simmons says. "It is unclear whether this can happen.”

    Stocks of specialty retailers are getting hit up and down the sector after Lululemon's slashed guidance and Men's Wearhouselackluster Q1 casts a dark shadow. Decliners: RUE -2.2%BKE-4.4%ARO -2.8%AEO -2.5%PSUN -3.6%.

    Despite some angst-provoking headlines on Best Buy (BBY -6.5%), Stifel Nicolaus is out with a defense, saying that the accelerated resignation of its chairman is a positive. Stifel not withstanding, trader sentiment is tipping toward letting the dust settle on the move before jumping on BBY shares.

  102. newbie

    BBY  
     
    PRIVATE EQUITY
     
    BUYOUT INTEREST?
     
    Discussion taking place at this moment on Minnesota Public Radio speculating that there may be strong interest in the Private Equity world about taking BBY private. Very thorough news story and interview with a very good observer of company (not sure who it is). Should be available archived at MPR.org  later.
    R.J. "Ahatovie"?   -somebody from Morningstar.
     
    Schultz resignation announced today.  Owns 20% of company. Might or might not want to block buyout interest-commentator says very unclear.
     
    UPDATE —  interview on radio just ended--11:19am Central time

  103. kustomz

    Bernanke, the rest of the world is fkd but we're just fine.. one last squeeze in the EUR then its $ time.

  104. newbie

    Gas Prices
     
    Today in Minneapolis  =  $3.38   ,  down significantly over last two weeks.

  105. willsons

    anybody know what is going on with EGLE today?  Up a bunch, can't find any news

  106. zeroxzero

    While headhunting for short candidates, I came across ARCO, up almost 12% this week and attracting quite a bit of short interest per WSJ "selling on strength" page.  Since I don't know why it went up in the first place, any opinions here?

  107. newbie

    Question about profit on trade…..
     
    When you buy a stock and three days later it is worth 32% more, is that good?
     
    (sarcasm, troll bait for Phil, I bought HOV Monday at $1.55-trade posted here at the time)
    (also bought WFR at same time, now up 13%-also posted here at time of purchase)
     
    ;)

  108. Savi

    Good Afternoon—have not been on the board lately but always checking the posts
    Phil—thx for the USO puts got out at 20% profit—
    also I have the bcs on SDOW—-July 23 @ 2.67 ( and July 28 @ 1.27 adjust ??
    thx

  109. jacalynm

    Thanks Phil. To clarify, I was congratulating you on your spot on recommendations in selling puts on June 4th.  When I checked the bids they were already profitable therefore less income.  (right)?  I'll be sitting patiently in cash :)

  110. NF**X

    Phil – May I ask a couple once-per-quarter basic member questions? All good here in general – but curious about a couple longer term positions. One CCSO and one NUAN. After hours is fine. Let me know what the correct protocol is. Thanks.

  111. jabobeast

    Phil—are you shocked by the volume today???

  112. Pharmboy

    Shimmer….is sure to fade away…

  113. lflantheman

    Remain mainly in cash, but I'm doing one 'just for fun' trade today:     Have sold  a couple AAPL this week's 575  straddles for 6.30.    Based on high volume this weekly 575 call transactions and my feeling that this is the most likely pin for tomorrow.  Again, recreational only.  

  114. terrapin22

    Phil/Vegas – any update on the Vegas gathering?  I'd like to book hotel sooner rather than later.  I have some credits I need to lock in.  Prob stay at Wynn but wondering where the meeting would be. 

  115. pstas

    ARCO- Zero- I just closed my long position. Bought in mid-12's Nov calls with intent on holding longer. Took the short term profit. Will buy again if it goes back down.
    This is the major MCD franchiser in Latin America. I look at it as getting MCD on the cheap.

  116. Savi

    terrapin—-working on Vegas —waiting to get some info from lvmoda before I put together a format and cost p/p—Nov 10,11 ,12 weekend is the most probable date

  117. angelcur

    ZEROZERO…what would the ticker be for arco if they combined with solyndra?..

  118. cslanson2

    Phil,
    For anyone interested in making a little arbitrage income, TLB might be worth a look.  Sycamore is taking them private at $2.75 per share and should close within the next 60-90 days. Unless Talbot cooked the books or the buyer finds a turd in the closet that wasn't disclosed nor found through due diligence this deal should close without a hitch. Stock is trading at a 15% discount to the agreed upon price which annualized would make a nice return without a lot of risk.  As an alternative, the $2.50 strike Jan Puts can be sold for around $0.30 and they will be cancelled when the stock is cancelled.

  119. Phil

    EGLE/Wilsons – I think general sector thing on China stimulus.  

    ARCO/ZZ – I have zero opinion on them.  

    Profit/Newbie – It's only good if you cash it in.  Otherwise it's all fantasy camp. 

    Just getting to 60M at 1:15.

    You're welcome Savi!  On SDOW – We have more Ben tomorrow and the G20 next week but, if it's a bet and not a hedge – it's a loser as we didn't get a dive on Ben's lack of QE.  That goes for all our short plays from this morning – not to mention the levels are still good.  

    Thanks Jacalyn – Just wanted to make sure you weren't chasing them after the fact.  Once we seem to have secured a bottom, we will look for some more bullish plays (X is still good).

    Questions/NF – Any time is good but if it's in-depth, then after hours is better.  

    Volume/Jabob – No, seems to be a continuing and general lack of interest in the markets.  This is the new normal apparently.  

    And now we're drifting up as the Dollar fades back to 82.  

    Euro $1.26!  Pound $1.577.  EUR/CHF $1.2013 so big move means the Euro is popping on it's own now.  I guess Spain being downgraded 3 notches and $50Bn to bail out their banks was baked in as is the IMF's $107Bn figure for a full Spanish clean-up.  If we can blow past this – the bears are in trouble!  

    12:40 PM European shares post modest gains, giving up much of a big pop higher after the PBOC cut rates. Stoxx 50 +0.2%, Germany+0.8%, France +0.4%, Italy +0.9%, Spain +0.3%, U.K. +1.2%. The euro flat at $1.2575. 

    Spain is downgraded three notches to BBB with negative outlook by Fitch. The agency had previously seen the country benefiting from a mild recovery in 2013, but now sees recession for the next two years. Between that and the cost of recapping the banks, Fitch sees Spain's debt/GDP ration peaking at 95% in 2015 (vs. 82% at its last forecast).

    An upcoming IMF study will say that troubled Spanish banksneed a cash injection of at least €40B ($50B), Reuters reports. The amount required to clean up the entire sector is €90B, a sizable piece of which will be covered by the healthy banks. An independent audit is expected to show that the shortfall is higher than the IMF's figure. (Spain downgrade)

  120. newbie

    HOV
    Sold my shares at $2.10, profit of 35% in three days.

  121. roberthjrfl

    Does anyone know if stockcharts can graph futures?  What is the best platform to look at futures prices over time?  TIA.

  122. Phil

    And BBY back at $20!  

    TLB/CSL – Essentially a penny stock now.  This is not news on the takeover so I imagine there's risk in this deal that's not obvious but buying Jan $2.50 calls for .22 and selling the $2.50 puts for .30 is a fun way to play as there's a lawsuit against the board saying they didn't adequately shop the deal and that means it MIGHT get sweetened slightly to get it closed.

    HOV/Newbie – good exit!  

    Futures/Robert – TOS is pretty good, you can do many time-frames and add studies.  

  123. stjeanluc

    Stockcharts / Robert – yes, they do let you chart futures. I have not checked to see if all of them are included though, but the biggest ones are there.

  124. 1020

    …Sue Herrera – an "expert" on China?….
     
    *noise heard on CNBS……

  125. rustle123

    The power lunch auction for Warren Buffett is up to $124,300.  It started at $25,000 and doesn't end till tomorrow evening.  Hope you at least get Lobster or Kobe Beef for that price.

  126. Phil

    Herera/1020 – The Daily Show makes fun of that all the time, whatever the story is, they label on of their regulars the "Senior ______  Correspondent."  So silly although Sue did go to Cal State in Northridge 30 years ago and we can assume she spent at least two hours a week eating Chinese food so that's at least 3,000 hours of China expertise right there!  

    Ah, now we're getting a little sensible action.  DO NOT tell me you didn't have all day to cash out!  

    Dollar coming off the floor at 82.14, oil testing $85 and looks like it will fail into the 2:35 NYMEX close, Gold $1,589 and not looking strong there with silver 1% weaker than that and nat gas now $2.28!  Even gasoline heading lower ($2.69) so what the hell is the energy sector happy about?  Nothing – stupidness – NO QE FOR YOU!!!

  127. Burrben

    Phil –  So where are you leaning now?  Cashy and Bearish?  I'm a little suprised we didn't have a knee jerk reaction to no-QE news?  The levels are holding it seems.  In essance I'm looking for your gut feeling.  
     
    I really thought we'd trade lower…but I'm always wrong, even when I'm trying to do the opposite of what I would normally do.

  128. 1020

    Phil – I think Sue Herera has some smarts…..
     
    ….can you get your 10,000 hours by absorption from 20+ years on a financial news set?…. :)

  129. Phil

    Buffett/Rustle – Cherry coke and burgers at Dairy Queen.  If I could get it for $125,000, that would be worth it, I have an hour's worth of pitches for him but it's probably going to be over $500K.  

    Bearish/Burr – No really cashy and let's see what happens with the G20.  Certainly not bearish enough to regret the Income Portfolio entries but, as I said this morning – I would have cashed all the small portfolios as aggressively bullish is simply foolish right now.  Doing the opposite is, of course, another Seinfeld episode…  I am bearish as to this run now needing a pullback, probably give up the pre-market gains by tomorrow morning and then drift into the weekend as we wait for Euro events to unfold.  

    Absorbtion/1020 – That's not too different from asking if spending 20 years as a Fox News anchor would give you a deep understanding of politics.  You might THINK you are educated but you're just indoctrinated…

     

    His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget, whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again, and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself — that was the ultimate subtlety; consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink.

     

    He knew in advance what O'Brien would say. That the Party did not seek power for its own ends, but only for the good of the majority. That it sought power because men in the mass were frail cowardly creatures who could not endure liberty or face the truth, and must be ruled over and systematically deceived by others who were stronger than themselves. That the choice for mankind lay between freedom and happiness, and that, for the great bulk of mankind, happiness was better. That the party was the eternal guardian of the weak, a dedicated sect doing evil that good might come, sacrificing its own happiness to that of others. The terrible thing, thought Winston, the terrible thing was that when O'Brien said this he would believe it.

  130. roberthjrfl

    Phil, thanks.  I am looking at VIX futures which TOS doesn't carry….  any other suggestions?

  131. Phil

    Futures/Robert – Nope, sorry, I don't play anything that's not on TOS…

    Oil failing $85 again – I think below $84.50 into the close and that HAS to spook XOM off their 5% run in the last 3 days (one would think) and that should knock the Dow back a point and that's back to yesterday's close so everything points to that happening EXCEPT the actual market action – which is stubbornly hanging on.  

    VIX down to 21.20, Dow volume at 2:25 is 69M, which is barely ahead of "normal".  

    I'm baffled – how can people not want to take profits into the weekend off a 500-point pop in the Dow from Monday's low?  

  132. Savi

    Phil—just to be sure some of the income trades are up over 30% do we get out or stay—not sure if IP comes under the 20% rule?
    Thx

  133. angelcur

    PHIL that summation index is a daily.. showing pretty much O/S: I use a 3 hour for lightening into a trend..employing rsi and vix combo..those particular charts(dailies) are also more O/S than O/B 

  134. diamond

    roberthjrflVIX with Updated Price Charts (scroll down).

  135. jromeha

    THe RUT is barely positive, why the hell is the dow up 110!?!?!

  136. williex

    Robert
     
    Tradestation   (TS) is good for futures and equities but it is terrible for options.  It was originally designed for equities and futures.  TOS was initially designed for options. 
    I love the graphing capabilities of TS but since I mostly trade options I dropped TS and switched to TOS

  137. angelcur

    ok first off buffet isn't doing any deals with a lunch conversant who he will immediately think is silly for spending that kind of dough to eat with a flatulant octo..did some really smart person pay 2mm for this buffet lunch in 07?…. ..secondly sue herrara in the 20 years that i have watched her off and on the only trend i can observe with certainty is that she if she gains another pound she will be grazing on the set..and for gosh sake lets stop picking on fox i think stoessel and geraldo are great..i like brett baier and shepard smith too..the networks and other cable guys are no better..good lord rachel maddow is like keith olbermann (who was great on espn) in a wig

  138. 1020

    Hey jromeha!  Only 30 stocks to push around on the Dow…… :)

  139. angelcur

    pity our children because anyone of us could do a better job that 90% of the ecurrent leadership and i don't think that's a compliment to us

  140. roberthjrfl

    Thanks all.  I have seen the CBOE site… i was hoping to be able to get a 1 minute chart of the vix future VXM12.

  141. stjeanluc

    The 25KP USO puts are good for 30% now!

  142. rpme

    Phil, when researching stocks, where do you get most of your info?

  143. tommy1

    Angelcur,
    Stop having children. Problem solved. Having an American child is about the worst thing you could do for the planet's health. The fact that they grow up to be obese, mall-shopping, SUV driving, energy-wasting, war-mongering gluttonous schmucks is about the best of it.

  144. Pharmboy

    Investment Banks are red…GS, MS, JEF…why?  I thought things were good for investing!

  145. Jbur

    angel/lunch with Buffett: I don't know, Ted paid $2.6M for lunch and hit pay dirt. 
     http://www.bornrich.com/warren-buffett-charity-lunch-auction-2012-live-ebay.html

  146. Pharmboy

  147. Burrben

    Short Stranglers / PeterD Port
    I ran a What-If on the new port that PeterD (thank you!) put to together last night.  I'm still trying to digest it as my brain keeps on fighting against me!  Anyway, here is the model that IB spits out:
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/ZQVsJ1z_yjLUlYS40V22vHNLJEdTq20IeksyP_kMH6Y
     
    It looks to me like the risk profile for you're standard Iron Condor, except you risk isn't capped on extreme moves.  
    To break it down it looks like:
    1) A unbalanced RUT IronC with a 30pt distance in strikes to the downside, but a 20pt distance to the upside
    2) A SPX short strangle, short the 1125P and short the 1430C for a 305pt range
    3) a SPX bear put 5 point vertical 
    This is the RUT side:
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/vNMM1uTCwq3bOzHiXWvPCnNLJEdTq20IeksyP_kMH6Y
    This is the SPX side:
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/x6xzKsNWwy6yVRSrPQ8twHNLJEdTq20IeksyP_kMH6Y
     
    Any thoughts?  

  148. stjeanluc

    Something has to give…

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/6/7/sp-500-and-long-term-interest-rates.html

    The chart below compares the S&P 500 to the yield on the 10-year US Treasury going back to March 2009.  As you can see, the S&P 500 has seen a big gain during this period, while the yield on the 10-year has dropped.  At first glance, it would appear as though lower rates equals higher stock prices.  If you look more closely, however, you can see that virtually all of the gains have come when the the yield on the 10-year was rising, while each leg lower in interest rates (shaded areas) has also seen a leg lower in stock prices.

  149. angelcur

    well tommy you sure have a way with words!! i have 8.. four boys four girls.. all of the are elite athletes and one is headed to oxford and is a phi bete..the girls are younger and somewhat undefined..tho one just won the ct state gymnastics level 6..and one of the 8 is overweight..not bad…for an american child..and you are from?

  150. Peter D

    OK, got out of the meetings with 1 hour left to trade.  Thank you very much to Stjeanluc for the spreadsheet for the $500k portfolio.  I think you got everything.  I see that the RUT July bear call spread got filled.  The RUT bull put spread should be filled also.  The SPX short strangles crazy play has 4 legs, so it's harder to fill, some may got filled already.

  151. Savi

    tommy1—whoa !!!! rather a harsh stmt—and you are from?

  152. Peter D

    Burrben,
    I'm planning to add some long puts and calls later when it's cheaper.  The verticals are faster to get fills.  After the addition of the long puts and long calls, then you'll see the same P/L curve as the Back Spreads.

  153. angelcur

    robertjr send me your email to rhetra@aol.com and i will try and send you a one minute of the vix

  154. Pharmboy

    StJ – well, I guess that means that the S&P is going down…b'c my prediction is the 10 yr going down further…so there!

  155. angelcur

    thanks savi you know sometimes these forums bring out interesting aspects of one's personality..you know faceless anonymous..leads to one step over the line sometimes..but we have a robust group and i am sure tommy knows he may have implied much through the projection of his comments..although i tell you i am gluttonous today! i have been eating these crazy potato chips called cape cod and they look all waffled.. also i irge all to find a place that sells gabagaba tea..its amazing..

  156. tommy1

    Savi,
    Born and bred in the heartland, currently in California. I left my writing instructor job last summer at a public college after getting tired of driving cars with broken windshields and having to read stacks of bad student essays between bouts of freeway driving, thanks.

  157. Savi

    angel—-your kids accomplishments speak for themselves—robust group is right--but sometimes too over the line, I think

  158. Burrben

    Phil –  Can you please add your income portfolio posts to the Virtual Portfolio area?  Makes it much simpler to track.

  159. pstas

    Peter- I got partial fills today. Still waiting on the RUT put end and the SPX strangle.
    I was also curious about the 30 pt strike on the RUT puts vs 20 on the calls?

  160. Pharmboy

    Speaking of rocket boosters…What happens when they fall off?

  161. Savi

    tommy1--understand maybe you are burnt out—but there are so many young kids trying to help i.e. Teach for America program etc—the present day kids, I think are more involved in socioeconomic matters than our generation where money was everything

  162. rperi

    40% profit on the USO $32 June calls!

  163. Phil

    Income Portfolio/Savi – I certainly wasn't planning on making quick exits on them.  Realistically, if you are an active trader, then anything comes under that rule because we made 30% in 2 or 3 days so you take the money and run because you're 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule and a lot can happen in that time.  As it's a less active portfolio though – we are meant to ride things out and, also, it's not like we have better puts to sell at the moment so, officially, we hope to make that other 70% with what we've got.  

    Summation/Angel – I think it seems to work both ways – one is just fast and one is slow. 

    Ah – here comes my sell-off.  Boy that took a long time!  

    Research/Rpme – Why from PSW of course!  8-)   Actually I like Yahoo finance, Seeking Alpha, YCharts, Investools, Wikinvest and of course, Google.  

    Lunch;/Angel – Clearly you don't know the value of a good meal…

    And what Jbur said!  

    Something/StJ – I bet it's the S&P that gives first.  

    Income Portfolio/Burr – Yes, I'll write it up on the weekend, just like I did last year.  

    LOL Pharm – and wheeeeeeeeeee!  

  164. sagemm1

    Phil/ Time decay
     
    again trying to figure time decay…If I were to buy or sell say Jun Dia 144 puts closing (all things equal) here at .94, what kind of overnight decay, again if we opened even tomorrow (like that ever happens), what would you think they would decay over night and how do you determine that? TIA

  165. Phil

    USO/$25KP – Take it and run – you never know what tomorrow will bring (or the last half hour!).  

  166. sagemm1

    sorry that should be jun 124 puts for my time decay Q

  167. angelcur

    so earlier i said i thought it was a good i idea fo rme to take the day off..so i had profits on oil bonds and the index and metals earlier…i fucked around and traded in a half ass manner..and now am in the red slightly on the day..so what was that all about about!..when your mind says one thing and you do another..now thats magic!

  168. tommy1

    Burned out? Not yet. Even after 5 careers and 25 jobs breaking my back in America's schools, factories, fields, warehouses, offices. Born "Where big wheels roll through fields/Where sunlight streams." Hope is not to be crushed easily.
     

  169. angelcur

    PHIL!! I am quite sure you know that i DOO know the value of a good meal but you are a god of food.. your grandfather max wuld use the word goyesche cuppe to describe that madness..someone should chart his stock price and the value of his lunch auction result..

  170. Savi

    Phil—I am reminded on how good you are at oil calls--should have waited on the puts

  171. Phil

    Wow, CNBC is so surprised the Neo-Nazi Party guy in Greece misbahaved on a talk show.  Did they miss WWII entirely???

    DIA/Sage – I take it you mean $124 puts and the problem you'll always have is it changes with the VIX as well as the time decay so selling index puts can really bite you on a drop as they move into the money and the VIX heads higher and drives up their premium.  Of course, going the other way, they fall out of the money while the VIX declines so moves can be exaggerated in either direction.   Generally though, we have 8 days to expiration and  you've got .94 all premium in the position so about .11 per day is your expected Theta decay.   Trading days tend to matter more than weekend days and you know they'll keep the last .05 to .10 longer than they should but it's close enough for guesswork and that's all it ever is since the actual variables change every hour and every day anyway so attempting to calculate what will happen short-term exactly is a joke.  

    Mind/Angel – That's just normal impulse control issues.  As I said in the morning – a day better spent at the beach if you are not a gambler.  

    Don't despair Tommy – I'm sure you got through to a few along the way. 

  172. Canuck

    TLT positive again – this isn't over till its over.

  173. jthoma

    today might have been the best example of pump and dump for the year- they loaded the sheeple up!

  174. Burrben

    Didn't load me up!  I took good a good bit of risk off.  I don't there we are done with the pain yet.  

  175. jthoma

    the only people who did worse were thos who bought oil above 86:)

  176. jthoma

    or BAC at 7.90- what a turn!

  177. morxlntway

    that SDOW hedge is slow to react at least when we are reversing. It seemed to react very well when i didn't want it to. Kind a like angel's mind (and mine as well)
    Are you thinking it is good to have a cover for the week end? Are we keeping the 5 & 25 fulll-on?
    thanks

  178. aaronc

    This sheeple didn't get loaded up either. Sold into rally yesterday and bought some of Phil's SDS hedge this morning thinking we'd sell hard after no QE message. Holding over night I think.

  179. jromeha

    I think oil is a nice buy here. I dont think it opens $1 lower tonight… Seems like an easy way to make 40 cents.

  180. threeputt

    Someone forgot to turn on the buy program until 3:45!

  181. rpme

    Phil, thanks, my best 3 days of the year. Of course, Friday was my worst day of the year….maybe too bullish. All cash now, well almost.

  182. Phil

    Trying to hold 12,450 on Dow, 5,000 in Transports, 7,500 on NYSE, 760 on RUT and, of course 1,310 on S&P or this can get messy but looks like we'll hold into close.  

    Buffett/Angel – I do have one pitch that would be worth it for the access as the connections/favors, etc I need to get this plan in front of Buffett would cost me more than $125K anyway.  You know how it is, all the gatekeepers want something so there's a certain logic to paying a fixed fee up front for that kind of access.  But I tell you what, get me a meeting with Buffett and I'll buy you a very nice dinner!  

    Oil/Savi – Not all the time, just sometimes get into a groove as things line up right.  The most dangerous thing is assuming I'm that accurate all the time…

    Cover/Morx – I think it's madness not to have a cover if you have positions to protect.  Cash is the best cover but, if you must play – then, yes, I like that one for a cover.  

    Oil/Jrom – Worth a gamble off $84 if you can watch it but I wouldn't hold it over the closed period as you never know.  This is a powder-keg and all up to whatever Chinese and EU officials say now.  

    Nice job Rpme and you are very welcome!  

  183. angelcur

    if i get you a meeting with ANY billionaire you will serve that dinner dressed as caligula in a curly blond wig

  184. Phil

    At the close: Dow +0.51% to 12478. S&P +0.12% to 1317. Nasdaq -0.48% to 2831.

    Treasurys: 30-year +0.04%. 10-yr +0.17%. 5-yr +0.09%.

    Commodities: Crude -1% to $84.17. Gold -2.54% to $1592.65.

    Currencies: Euro -0.1% vs. dollar. Yen +0.55%. Pound -0.23%.

    Market recap: Stocks started off with a boost from China's surprise efforts to spur its economy but lost steam after the Fed announced new capital rules for financials and following Bernanke's comments that offered no signal of further stimulus. Spain's credit rating cut was essentially ignored. NYSE declining issues led advancers three to two.

    April Consumer Credit: +$6.5B vs. +$12.0B expected and $12.4B prior (revised from $21.4B). The mark is the lowest reading since last October. 

    Baum: Hiring Hiccup Sets Off Alarms in Lousy Recovery (Bloomberg)

    The federal budget deficit was $125B in May, taking the total for the first eight months of FY 2012 to $845B, or $80B less than last year. Spending in May rose 1% Y/Y to $306B while tax revenues increased 3% to $180B. (PR)

    St. Bernanke’s Fight Against the Deflation Dragon (DShort.com)

    The Twitter hashtag trending across Spain right now -#StopMerkel. What do they want to stop, asks ZH, "a German bailout of insolvent Spanish banks?" The Economist piles on, its front coverdepicting the world economy as a sinking ship, its fate in the hands of the German Chancellor.

    When life deals you lemons … banks (particularly European ones) cutting back lending activity in Asia is leading to a ramp in the development of the corporate bond market there. Companies (ex-Japan) issued $398B in bonds last year, up 29% Y/Y as syndicated bank loans dove 44%.

    Investors back away from junk, this week pulling the highest amount out of the 3rd largest high-yield ETF (PHB) since the fund's inception nearly 5 years ago. The 2 larger funds, (HYGJNK) haven't been spared either. After a strong start to 2012, BAML's junk bond index has lost 1.7% since April's end. 

    The Fed seems to have ignored Jamie Dimon, among others, scheduling a vote today on an uncompromising proposal to implement Basel III capital standards. U.S. banks will not – as they had pleaded for – be able to count mortgage servicing rights and certain unrealized capital gains more towards their capital than allowed by Basel.

    Michael Olenick: How Banks and Their Lawyers Win at the Expense of Investors and Homeowners (Naked Capitalism)

    Heidi Moore: Hey Brother, Can You Spare $500 Billion for America’s Banks? (Marketplace)

    It's up to OPEC to prevent a slide in oil prices, says a concerned Christophe de Margerie, Total chairman/CEO. Saudi Arabia has already hiked production ahead of the Iranian embargo, and he doesn't think the cartel will cut output next Thursday. Morgan Stanley disagrees

    4 Reasons Natural Gas Is So Cheap (Yahoo Finance)

    Solar Installers Offer Deals, Gaining Converts (NYT)

    Seeing a huge surge of interest in "esoteric" investments (MLPs to name one) paying fat yields, one financial adviser sees the instruments approaching bubble territory. No such froth is evident in plain-vanilla dividend payers, VIG lagging the SPY for the last 2 years.

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) execs were approached by a high-ranking official in Beijing back in 2009 to propose that the company could land government approval to sell a luxury apartment complex in Macau and settle a legal dispute for a tidy sum of $300M, according to the WSJ. The revelations are coming out now due to a lawsuit in Las Vegas with a disgruntled former legal adviser and a U.S. foreign-bribery case that seem to be overlapping.

    With a pivot into customer service via "Google Trusted Stores," the online giant (GOOG) is increasing its competitive interface with Amazon.com (AMZN). The certification service will help shoppers find quick shipping and service online and – against the tide of Google's more usual automated solutions – is "significantly over-staffed," the company says.

    Research In Motion (RIMM +2.5%) has already stopped making its smallest-capacity PlayBook tablet (16GB) to focus on the 32GB and 64GB models – this amid generally lackluster sales and a $485M inventory charge for the line in December. The company will "remain committed to the tablet space."

    While RIM (RIMM) is relying on its new Blackberry for salvation, the device will comprise a jigsaw puzzle of technologies that have been acquired or licensed, including the OS, the camera and the touchscreen. The approach is a big departure for RIM and it's prompted doubts. "It's almost too many things to integrate at the same time," says one analyst.

    The long-rumored deal to have Apple add Baidu (BIDU) as a search option for iPhones could be announced next week, reports Bloomberg, citing sources. Baidu handles about 80% of Chinese Internet searches and the move should fit with Tim Cook's hope to grab a bigger share of the world's largest mobile market.

    My Pitch to Buffett!  Ponzify: Prospectus for Silicon Valley’s Next Hot Tech IPO, Where Nothing Could Possibly Go Wrong. (McSweeney’s)

  185. jromeha

    WTF!? Oil getting destroyed! Ill take my chances…

  186. Peter D

    pstas – reposting as I just posted to the wrong day:
    There is no significant reason for a $30 put spread versus $20 call spread.  Basically, the short Put strike is 20% out of the money and the market is unlikely to get that low next month, so a $30 spread is comfortable, saving some commission costs (with less number of contracts).  On the call side, the premium curve is steep, and they are closer to the money, so a $20 gives a bit more upside protection.  Yeah, upside hedge sounds strange, but it can be helpful on a surge.

  187. Phil

    Meeting/Angel – No, I actually need to talk to Buffett because he has Berkshire RE and this is perfect for that business and his overall sensibilities and I just need about 30 mins of his time to pitch it, see if he has enough interest to pull together an operation and commit time and resources to making it happen.  It's a multi-Billion Dollar project but it doesn't work without a magic name at the top but, with that magic name – very high chance of success.  

  188. newbie

    angelcur,
     
    unfortunately Ms. Maddow would not be interested in me, (or any of the men here)  but if she were……….I would try to make her SO happy. I'm sure I speak for many here.
     
    She is SO freaking smart. Just hope that she doesn't get the "prosperous and successful" bulge….have you looked at sinead o'connor lately?

  189. Phil

  190. zeroxzero

    Uh, is there a publicly-traded major league baseball team?  "A unified lawsuit on behalf of more than 2,000 National Football League players has been filed against the league in federal court, alleging that the NFL failed to acknowledge and address neurological risks associated with the sport and then deliberately failed to tell players about the risks they faced, according to attorneys representing former players."

  191. NF**X

    Phil – 2 AH Questions:  Thanks
     
    First, I, like you (or mostly from you) love CSCO.  When I follow a trade that fits for me, I always make a point of pasting it into an email, sending it to myself and reviewing for complete understanding later.  I know the structure of this one isn't uncommon, but I can't find my notes and I'm not certain re the end play.
     
    On or about the same say, bought XX CSCO shares (11-11-2012) at $18.70 – and sold XX Jan '14 $15 Cs at $5.60 and same date $20 Ps at $4.40.   I know I'd like to accumulate and own CSCO over time – and I rarely look at this position right now, but. for re-education purposes, I (apologize) but am wondering what I'm looking for approaching exp and what the end game is.
     
    Also, recently got a little too bullish on NUAN.  Tho I like them, my spread is too aggressive – and I didn't finance with Ps. Opened the Jan '13 25-27 bull call spread for $1.  Normally – on a proper BCS – I'd sit and from time to time see if, as you say, we're still on track.  NUAN isn't going to see $27 in six months.  The premiums, tho, would seem to support converting to a diagonal and selling calls every month against the 25s.  Can get their cost basis to zero or better.  That seems simple to me – but right way to approach?  Or is there a better way to "reset" this spread for further out?

  192. angelcur

    zero that's like someone climbing everest losing fingers and saying.'.i am suing the countries of nepal and china for allowing me to climb this mountain without affording me a perspective on the associated risks'..well mr climber we can only tell you its hazardous( just in case you didn't know)..and further those risks are variable and ever changing..the same is true of football and anyone who has played it at a serious level  knows the risks even if all you can say is..'.that guy was trying to kill me'..its sad but until we all recognize that ultimately our choices are ours….hockey is no less bad on a per player percentage i am thinking..some lawyer has ginned some crap up and here we go. now should the nfl come up with much better medical care for their retired players..yes and the player's association should be in there pitching in too..hopefully goodell will establish nursing homes and amazing facilities and services for former players…what complete madness

  193. angelcur

    maddow…newbs i take it your a woman?

  194. angelcur

    if the NFL knowingly hid the seriousness of an individual's injury from a player..well they should be relieved of massive amounts of money

  195. Maya1

    Phil
    Good evening
    $500,000 to meet with Buffett?
    In the same vein, I read somewhere on this site some days ago that you might be visiting southern california? (Perhaps the author was just extolling the virtues of this area…)
    IF you are, how much to meet with you for a half hour?
    Of course, I don’t mean to pry into your plans and I may actually be mistaken about what I read earlier this week.
    BUT, if you happen to be in So Cal, AND could spare 30 mins…would be great.

  196. kinkistyle

    Companies Sitting on Much Less Cash Than First Thought

     
    "Perhaps more significant than the number itself, however, is how the revision affects the trend. Before the revision, the Fed showed corporations continuing to accumulate cash, with liquid assets rising nearly every quarter since the recession ended and reaching a record $2.2 trillion at the end of last year. Now, however, it appears corporate cash piles grew rapidly through 2009, then leveled off. Companies aren’t spending their cash, but they aren’t holding more of it, either.
    Moreover, companies are holding a smaller share of their total assets in cash. At the end of 2009, liquid assets made up 6.3% of their corporate assets, the most since the 1960s. Under the unrevised data, that share continued to grow, topping 7% last year. But the revised data show cash has actually fallen as a share of assets, to 5.7% at the end of March, its lowest level in the recovery."

  197. stjeanluc

    One step forward…

  198. stjeanluc

    Oil is now failing S3 in overnight trading. The S&P futures don't look to healthy either…

  199. jthoma

    Liking the oil hoping to see 82 tomorrow with a shot at 80 early week!

  200. drmtv10

    Hi Phil,
    I own C shares (long-term) in several portfolios (gains of about $1500 were realized from options sold) are currently down by almost $2500 (net down $1000), and an option position with loss of $2260.  I am looking to recover / roll options position loss.  Do you see any long term trade setups for C where deploying about $2-4k can be leveraged for a break-even exit?  A simple x10 Jan 25/30 DS for about $2.5, coupled with some put sells?  Wait for a better entry / walk away from C to invest in XLF Jan 14 12/15 ds or another?  
    As always, thanks in advance.

  201. zeroxzero

    My predominant feeling watching the dropping dollar-driven market over the last few days was "how soon they forget."  Europe is fixed?  Because the Euro rose 2% against the dollar since last Friday after tanking @ 7% against the dollar since April Fool's Day with absolutely nothing in Europe solved??  
     
    Zero, nada, no Eurobonds, no ECB bailout of Spain, no "unified banking system", the Spanish 10 year over 6% and spiking up 50 bp. in the last 30 days and Bankia stuffed with the wreckage of Spain's world-leading real estate bubble [which is saying a lot given, e.g., the smoking $85B hole in the ground left by AIG alone].  What, me worry?  Germany will ride to the rescue any minute now, grudgingly falling on its sword for the sake of European solidarity and the preservation of it's European export market.  Of course, it will have to give back all of its export earnings over the past decade and then some, but Germany's always been a kindly and supportive grandfather to Europe, why would anything change?   I dunno, guys [and gals], good thing we can rely on CHINA!!! to support the global economy, at least one major country that's styling along without a worry in the world.
     
     "A November 2011 survey by the Bank of China and Hurun, a company that tracks the country’s wealthy class, some 60% of Chinese with fortunes of at least $1.6 million have either considered immigration or are actively engaged in the process." http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-22/lifestyle/31085919_1_china-foxconn-deng-xiaoping

  202. jfawcett

    PSW Membership – Starting 2nd quarter financed (mostly) through a 150% gain on this weeks TNA play.

  203. diamond

    Pentaxon has not updated his market timing "VIY Indicator" since February 23, 2012 …
     
    However, I have come across another interesting "Market Timing Chart" (and explanation) that The_Green_Prince posted on Springheel Jack's site. To wit:
     
    "McClellan on their Market Timing Chart
     
    - Data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, expressing the net position of commercial traders of eurodollar futures. It is not about the euro and dollar currencies, but rather it refers to
    dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks.
     
    -This data is shifted forward by 1 year to reveal how its movements tend to get echoed a year later in the movements of the SP500. So the current correction was foreshadowed a year prior by what banks and other big financial institutions were doing with these interest rate futures instruments.
     
    -The magnitude of the upcoming rally that this indicator is showing between now and November is roughly equivalent to what it was saying about the rally off of last October’s low. Take note on the timing of the moves it diagrams not how big the price moves will be. Also it does NOT say that it will be a linear uptrend."

  204. newbie

    angel, no, you   mis-read. i'm very much a man, and i like only women.    rachel is 100% lez, does that clear it up?
     
    but i'm in love with her anyway…..her politics, her values, her intelligence, her sense of hunor, and her physical appearance ain't bad either….

  205. newbie

    how did you get the idea i was a woman?  I'm going to have to go back and read my post to see if I screwed it up as badly as I usually do…

  206. lionel

    Zeroxzero/
    You are right no quick fixes will come from France or Germany for the Eurozone.
    UK, USA pushing for ANY reforms and France and Germany sitting on the fence waiting for the PIGS to sort their houses in order before injecting any money.
    France borrows at 2.1% (lowest 10yr ever) and Germany at 1.5% (ditto) so they can afford to wait…
    Obama on the other hand is desperate to prop up its economics credentials before November.
    Keeping in mind that with a high dollar Q2 and Q3 earnings wont be as spectacular as Q1s, he really needs to pull out some tricks to create a "shift in sentiment" between now and then.
    And with 1 billion dollars in his treasure chest I wouldnt bet against the man.
    Cameron is also desperate to get Europe financing machine started 10% of the UK economy depends on it.
    But Cameron can only speak whereas Obama can twist Bernanke's arms really hard.
    Euro bank shares went up 15% in less than three days…on rumors only. As Phil said on Thursday we are seeing some sellers fatigue. People wants in and they have cash on the sideline.
    Monday we have 1st round French parliament election results (Hollande's party landslide victory is expected which will be market positive and Euro positive).  What will happen during this week? The only thing I am sure of is markets will be manipulated!
    On the 18th, I expect confirmation of Hollande victory (2nd round) and Greek common sense prevailing with a nomination of a temporary government to work with the Troika. Why say no to Europe now when they can say no later and get some funding in the meantime? Tsipras obviously has never heard of early exercise option theory…
    If anything goes wrong on the 18th on the 20th with have FOMC meeting with QE3.
    But if all goes great then no QE3. Hopes of LTRO2 and QE3 should suffice :)
    Stars are all aligned for a furious rally whatever happens in Eurozone.
    S&P 1400 here we come!

  207. kinkistyle

    Bernanke/lionel:  I wonder if QE would really help Obama.  The 99% don't really feel the ups and downs of the risk asset markets as much as they do the "pain at the pump" or milk/bread prices.  Since QE seems to be having diminishing returns lately, Bernanke will probably need to go big in order to support prices through November and the accompanying rise in commodity prices could be used as a bludgeon by Republicans to pound Obama over.

  208. lionel

    Kinki/
    I totally agree with you and this is why Greece is SO important.
    The Fed will try to avoid going nuclear ibut if Tsipras wins enough seats to form a government then they will pull the trigger since they are the fastest to react. If Greece does alright they will wait until mid year next year at least.
    But "No QE" doesnt mean no hope of QE. And Obama is good at managing hopes….

  209. yodi

    Just from some of your favorite TV stn FOX AAPL is starting their own road map and so with cancelling the use of GOOG road map. Great financial loss th GOOG

  210. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Running late this morning (project in the works I'll talk about this weekend) but I believe I said yesterday that it looked like we'd retrace the pre-market pop by morning and here we are so not exactly any shocking developments this morning.  

    Dollar back to 82.825 so bad for markets and commodities and we're holding up well (down 0.5%) in the Futures considering. 

    Oil not holding up at $82 – that's so bad it's hard to go long although going long off that line (/CL) is a very high percentage move into the weekend but VERY TIGHT STOPS on that line – this is no game.  If they break down – we're in uncharted bearish territory.  Gold $1,579 – ROFL!  Silver just as worthless at $28.17, copper $3.278 is pathetic and matched in patheticocity by nat gas at $2.23 but both exceeded by the incredibly pathetic 2.5% drop in gasoline to $2.62 – these are bearish signs of slumping Global demand and supply gluts ramming straight into each other! 

    Euro $1.2455 is off the LOWS of $122.88, Pound $1.5425, 79.24 Yen to the Dollar and EUR/CHF is $1.2009 which means what folks?  Come on, I just woke up and I know this stuff – it means that the SNB is supporting the Euro to keep the Franc from being exchanged for LESS than $1.2009 Euros (ie. weak) which means the Euro is artificially supported at $1.245 and has downward pressure – that's what causes EUR/CHF to pin 1.2009 – selling pressure on the Euro which is, in turn, supported by the SNB.  

    So very dangerous day – again but lots of fun to sit back and watch if you cashed out!  

  211. Phil

    Team/ZZ – I guess you meant Football team to short.  I don't know of one.  The Packers are publicly held but it's more like an LLC with 120,000 shareholders.  I'm sure there are some companies – like MSG (but not MSG, of course) whose fortunes are directly tied to football teams but none I'm directly aware of.  

    CSCO/NF – Sorry, can you just repost that in the morning and I'll get to it in the new chat? 

    Football/Angel – It's legitimate.  Something about micro-concussions at all contact levels was a new(ish) study and they buried it.  This isn't about sports injuries, this is about the act of playing football (the jarring contact that is normal in the game – especially for linemen) is seriously long-term damaging to the brain and they buried the study and made no changes to the game or even attempted to improve the equipment to mitigate the damage – this is bad behavior and will ultimately threaten our National pastime.  I'm still processing this – not sure how I feel as I love football but the Liberal part of my brain is outraged…

    Meeting me/Maya – I guess I can knock a little off the current Buffett bid.  Please remind me close to the trip (early July) and I'll let you know but this will be with kids in tow so not a lot of free time.  On the other hand, project I will discuss on weekend may work out well for having a few get togethers around the country and, don't forget – Vegas Baby in November!  

    Cash/Kinki – That's news to me, good find. 

    Big Chart/StJ – Hopefully not "and two steps back".  

    C/DrM – Please re-ask. 

    Germany/ZZ – LOL (at least I hope you are joking!).  Isn't it great that we can see this BS for what it is?  

    That makes me very happy Jfaw – congrats!  

    Oops, gotta go to work!  

  212. flipspiceland

    @Felipe
    National and State Pension Liabilities:
     
    I can't see the problem. 
    All Timmay and Ben have to do is open up their laptops and do what Hank Paulson did, no questions asked or answered and instead of paying avaricious, immoral bankers a trillion dollars for utter, epic failure they could just add to the credit side of the Medicare and Social Security trust funds, push a 12  with 12 zeros on their numerical keyipads and Viola! ! Problem solved.
    It worked for AIG, Goldman Sucks, JP Morgan and a relative handful of billionaires trillionaire companies.  No reason why it wouldn't work  for the proletariat.
    Lockbox an all.

  213. 1020

    Why worry about a "Buffet Bid" when we can ask a question anytime?
     
    Phil, thanks for being a great host!  :)

  214. 1020

    With all these improvements, I'm sure Guantanamo is well on it's way to a AAA 3-star rating……
     
    http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/07/12110360-soccer-cable-tv-at-gitmo-us-lockup-in-cuba-quietly-being-upgraded?lite

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