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Friday – Be Thankful for Small Bounces

Are we going to have a "V"?

We haven't had a good V bounce-pattern in a while – one where the entire drop is entirely reversed on the other side – as if it were some mistake that's correcting itself as quickly as possible.  According to ThePatternSite

"Price at the bottom of the V will form a one-day reversal, island reversal, or tail, usually on heavy volume, perhaps gapping upward.  Price trends up, usually at the mirror angle of the downtrend. If price dropped by 30 degrees, price will rise following a similar angle. The price trend tends to be a straight-line run with few or no pauses, often fitting inside a channel."

Of course, we don't have a V yet, we just have a bounce off a hard floor that we expected – it's the next 7 days that will be critical but so far, so good on our bottom call.  The  NYSE is already over our strong bounce line (8,100) and we wait for the rest of the indexes to confirm a recovery at Dow 12,950, S&P 1,400, Nasdaq 3,000 and Russell 805 with less than a 1% move between our indices and their goals – other than the Nasdaq, which needs 2.5% and has been dragging along.

Click to ViewWe'd better be up this morning as the Dollar is way down at 80.59 as the Euro climbs back over $1.29 with the Pound at $1.59 and the Yen as weak as it's been in ages at 82.20 to the Dollar.  That has been thrilling the Nikkei, which touched 9,450 overnight, up almost 10% from the 8,600 line we liked for a long just 8 sessions ago!  While the US doesn't tend to get as excited about a weak Dollar as Japan does about a weak Yen – failing that 80.50 line today should be a fairly bullish indicator for US Equities.  

We had some good manufacturing reports from Europe and Asia with Chinese PMI at 50.4, the first growth in 13 months and Manufacturing Output rising to 51.3 in November from 48.2.  "The economic recovery continues to gain momentum," says HSBC's Qu Hongbin. "However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile." 

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI also ran up to an 8-month high of 46.2 from 45.4 in October with Manufacturing output at 45.9, up from 45 but Services fell to a 40-month low at 45.7.  "The PMI suggests that the (economic) downturn is set to gather pace significantly" in Q4 says Markit, adding that GDP could fall by up to 0.5%.  The mixed results show expectations that things will improve, as does Germany's Ifo business climate index, which surprisingly rises to 101.4 in November from 100 in October, confounding expectations for a fall to 99.5. The current conditions index increases to 108.1 from 107.3 and vs consensus of 106.3.

Back home, our slow, steady economic improvement continues and the Washington Post did a good job of listing 5 Economic Trends Americans should be thankful for this year and they line right up with our bullish premise:  

  • Household debt is way down – from 98% of GDP in 2009 to 83% in the first half of 2012.  
  • The cost of servicing debt is way down – from 14% of disposable income in 2007 to 10.7% today, saving us $403Bn a year.  
  • Electricity and Natural Gas prices are falling – a big help to lower-income families 
  • Businesses are no longer firing people – 1.62M people laid off in December was the slowest pace in a decade.
  • Housing is dramatically more affordable – a "typical" mortgage on the median home price in 2006 was $1,247 a month.  Today, that number is only $889 a month and just 26% of the average employees pay.  Once the banks start lending, we may be able to unleash a tidal wave of demand and that's fantastic for the economy at all levels.  

It's Black Friday, of course, and we only have half-sessions in the markets so the trading activity today will have little meaning but it can still paint a pretty picture of recovery on our charts and we certainly can be thankful for that as the TA drones can come back next week and BUYBUYBUY the stuff we've already been buying for weeks.


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  1. Pharmboy

  2. albo

    RIMM is higher by 14.1% after National Bank Financial raised its estimates for Blackberry 10 sales. In addition, National Financial Bank raised the price target to $15 from $12

     

  3. 1020

    Good Morning!

  4. phil

    Good morning!  

    There is no volume this morning and this move is essentially just a reaction to Dollar 80.47.  

    Markets are open until 1 today but I have to leave at noon.  

    Not much do do but watch and see if we can take out the strong bounce lines – S&P is right there and RUT getting close at 802 as well:

     

    • Dow 12,720 weak, 12,950 strong. 
    • S&P 1,375 weak, 1,400 strong.  
    • Nasdaq 2,900 weak, 3,000 strong. 
    • NYSE 8,000 weak, 8,100 strong.
    • Russell 790 weak, 805 strong. 

    Even 3 of 5 would be a great sign if we hold it but a bit scary to go all bullish into the weekend so I'm not looking to make any changes in stance today. 

  5. stjeanluc

    Good morning! Staying away today. Portfolio weekend update will be posted tomorrow.

    Have a good weekend!

  6. lflantheman

    Buying GMCR, Dec  22  28 calls    5 in MoMo port for 3.10.   This is 1/2 of planned position.

  7. lflantheman

    Buy LULU,  Dec 22  70  puts   5 in MoMo port for 3.25     This is 1/2 of planned position.

  8. rainman

    lflan / momo — anything in particular you're looking at on these that indicates direction to you?

  9. crussell14

    Iflan – chart pattern on LULU looks bullish. what are your thoughts on the PUT?

  10. scottmi

    COST – sueing Quebec re demands to make a 'french' company name. Seems like there ought to be a Capitol Steps skit that would apply. ;-)

  11. albo

    Market strong, many of the big momos not participating much.

  12. lflantheman

    LULU earnings Dec 6.  I think they miss.   GMCR  earnings Nov 27.  I think they will pop.  Will keep both of these plays small through earnings.

  13. phil

    At the open: Dow +0.46% to 12896. S&P +0.48% to 1398. Nasdaq +0.58% to 2944.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.08%. 10-yr -0.02%. 5-yr -0.02%.

    Commodities: Crude +0.35% to $87.69. Gold +0.32% to $1733.75.

    Currencies: Euro +0.41% vs. dollar. Yen -0.04%. Pound -0.22%.

    Market preview: Stock futures gain ahead of today's abbreviated session on the back of upbeat economic data out of Germany and China (IIIIII). S&P +0.3%. Among consumer stocks seeing early activity on the busiest shopping day of the year: Apple+0.5%, Wal-Mart +0.4%, Target +1.2%, Sears +1.1%. Crude oil futures slip as the Middle East cease-fire holds. No U.S. economic data scheduled.

    10:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.53%. 10-yr +0.01%. Euro +0.46%vs. dollar. Crude +0.38% to $87.71. Gold +0.27% to $1732.95.

    Fed Still Trying to Push Down Rates (WSJ)

    Birinyi: Sixth Myths About the Stock Market (MarketBeat)

    Jack Welch Is An Even Bigger Dick Than You Previously Believed (BusinessWeek)

    Inequality is Killing Capitalism (Project Syndicate)

    While Goldman Sachs predicts that Superstorm Sandy could hit the economy by 0.25-0.5% in Q4, research firm Economic Outlook Group reckons that reconstruction, as well as related purchases and hiring, could range from $140-240B and add 0.5 percentage point to GDP next year. "We'll see construction ramped up, and that's going to bring in jobs and an increase in demand for material of all sorts," the firm says. 

    The Troika is reportedly inching closer to a deal that would allow Greece to receive the next tranches of its bailout, with the IMF agreeing to deem the country's debt viable if it falls to 124% of GDP by 2020 instead of 120%. That apparently means that the funding gap that negotiators need to plug falls to around €10B, for which several proposals have been made. It seems to be a case of, if you pass the red danger line, move the line.

    German business sentiment may be up, but the mood of French companies remains close to its lowest level in three years despite a slight bounce in November. The index for the business environment among industrialists rises to 88 from 85 in October and vs consensus of 86. 

    Long lines snaked around city blocks last night as retailers such as Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGTopened late on Thanksgiving. Others, including Best Buy (BBY) and Macy's (M), waited until Black Friday. Despite the queues, the National Retail Federation reckons the number of shoppers will fall to 147M over the Thanksgiving weekend from 152M last year, and that the growth in retails sales will slow to 4.1% in November-December from 5.6%.

    Black Friday shopping will be the headline story in retail for the day, but the underlying plot will be the effect online channels have on the total sales hauls. Though various trade groups tag Black Friday weekend shopping to see a 3% to 4% rise this year, online shopping is expected to increase by closer to 15% heading into Cyber Monday. Online has also been where the winners and losers in the sector have been separated with major online forces such as Macy's (M) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) roaring to huge gains – while the likes of J.C. Penney (JCP) and Big Lots (BIG) limp along. 

    Black Friday by the numbers: Wal-Mart (WMT) says over 22M customers have been served since the retailer opened its storeslast night in a somewhat controversial decision to cut short the Thanksgiving holiday for employees. The company notes it's already knocked out 10M register transactions and hit an astounding pace of 5K items per seconds at peak time. The bigger question: Did Wal-Mart pull sales forward or take market share from rivals with its decision to launch Black Friday shopping earlier?

    Don’t look to Black Friday for clues to the market (Globe & Mail)

    Why Black Friday Is a Behavioral Economist’s Nightmare (NY Mag)

    Bionic Mannequins Spy on Shoppers to Boost Luxury Sales (Bloomberg)

    Macy's (M) CEO Terry Lundgren expects to see his company continue to grow market share as it stays competitive with online sellers. The retailer has used stores as fulfillment stores in one of best strategies unrolled by a brick-and-mortar player and continues to invest in buildout for women's shoes departments. On Black Friday, the exec calls the crowds "huge" at New York stores. (video)

    Shares of Best Buy (BBY) edge higher on Black Friday with the retailer trying to bounce off of the multi-year lows they etched out after another round of disappointing results. Behind the scenes, the biggest focus on BBY is if founder Richard Schulze can put together a bid to buy back the firm with P-E backing. The last thought from some analysts is that the eventual deal price could creep below $20 if Schulze waits out a sluggish Q4. 

    The United State Postal Service will try same-day delivery service this holiday season in select markets. Under an ambitious plan, the USPS wants to work out agreements with national retailers to service their same-day deliver needs. Should FedEx (FDX -0.6%) and UPS (UPS +0.2%) be worried? Though the government's scale is big enough to pose a threat, doubters see mounting budgetary issues preventing a wide rollout of same-day delivery.

    Auto sales in China will expand by an average of 8% a year to reach 22M in 2020, according to estimates from McKinsey. The firm sees a trend of Chinese consumers becoming wealthier, motivating them to start to buying bigger vehicles.

    Japanese car makers intend to continue expanding in China as sales appear to recover from a sharp slump this autumn due to the islands dispute between Japan and China. Toyota (TM), for example, intends to introduce 20 new models in China in the next three years. Meanwhile, Volkswagen (VLKAF.PK) plans to invest €14B in the country over the next four years.

    Fitch cuts Sony's (SNE) and Panasonic's (PC) debt ratings to junk status, chopping Sony three notches to BB minus and Panasonic two notches to BB. It's not a big surprise given the troubles the firms are experiencing, although Sumitomo Mitsui's Masahi Oda reckons Fitch's move is too negative. "Both Sony and Panasonic are struggling to generate operating profits, but each is restructuring and I don't envision the current situation continuing," Oda says. 

    Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) jet 14.2% higherpremarket, apparently fueled by enthusiasm over the impending launch of Blackberry 10 devices. With the new product, the company now expects to ship close to 35.5M devices devices in FY14 after early estimates called for 31.6M. RIMM trades at its highest level since June.

    The Top 75 ‘Pictures of the Day’ for 2012 (Twisted Sifter)

  14. phil

    Zoorming along now, up about 1%.  Oil at $88.44, gold flying to $1,747, silver $33.83, copper $3.52, nat gas $3.89 and gasoline $2.73 – suddenly everyone is bullish with Dollar at 80.41.  

    Euro $1.2965, Pound at a big point – $1.5997 so good news if they pop $1.60 and hold that.  Yen still good at 82.43. 

    XLF flying but would rather have protection for weekend on FAS Money – same with AAPL but that worries me more.  

    Strength/Albo – Looks like people are buying back into the basics – good sign the rally has legs.  

  15. scottmi

    AAPL – not really moving with the dollar..

  16. lflantheman

    AAPL:  I'm uncovering about 1/4 of all AAPl bull call spreads in most accounts, expecting a big move up in December, as reports flow in regarding product sales.

  17. Pharmboy

    PGNX…..thing of beauty…..

  18. phil

    AAPL/Scott – They trade pretty independently of everything but coming up with the Nas a bit.  

    We do not like the RUT rejected at 805 – keep an eye on that.  Other indexes looking good as we wait for the Nasdaq to catch up.  

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.88%. 10-yr flat. Euro +0.59% vs. dollar. Crude +1.06% to $88.31. Gold +1.02% to $1745.85.

    Retail stocks as a group are trading with strength on optimism Black Friday will deliver a healthy kickoff to the holiday season spending season. While accounts of lines out the door at major stores are an encouraging – but largely anecdotal indicator – it's early numbers from Wal-Mart (WMT +1.2%) and a Dow Jones reporttipping off strong online spending on Thanksgiving that may be really powering the mini-rally for big retail concerns such as Costco (COST+0.6%), J.C. Penney (JCP +1.8%), Sears Holdings (SHLD +0.4%), and Target (TGT +0.5%). (Previous: WMT hits 5K transaction per second at its peak)

    Oppenheimer thinks it has a beat on the winners and losers on Black Friday even though stores on the West Coast are just now beginning to open. According to a report from the firm, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF +1.5%) and New York Company (NWY -0.3%) were standouts while Ann (ANN +0.7%) misfired due to timing. 

    Toyota's (TM +1.1%expansion in China will include two China-only brands through joint ventures in the nation, according to a top exec. The move makes sense with the immature Chinese market not quite ready to see the same demand for models popular globally as smaller, cheaper vehicles. 

    RIMM's (RIMM +13%) rise follows yesterday's 17% surge in Toronto trading, which was sparked by a target price bump from the first analyst to raise his rating on RIM shares. Kris Thompson cites “positive sentiment building in the industry" ahead of the BB10 Blackberry update. On Tuesday, Jefferies' Peter Misek, a longtime RIM critic, raised his rating and price target on the stock. 

  19. sank1

    AAPL / Phil,
    Persist with the $560 next week covers? Or roll up a bit?

  20. jabobeast

    Friday, November 23, 11:07 AM So-called Tiger Cub hedge funds continue to feast on Priceline (PCLN +0.3%), notes Insider Monkey. The funds, boasing managers who cut their teeth at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management, aren't the only bullish-leaning institutional investors even in the face of the recent purchase of Kayak that looks pricey.

  21. rustle123

    Also keep in mind that McClellan was very oversold at close to -300, well after today you might be close to +150 and +150 to +200 is very overbought.  Getting to that area.

  22. hextra8

    Phil,
    Own TSLA Jan 2013 30 calls @ 5.20 (now 2.60). How can I improve this position? Thank you.

  23. gbase

    Phil,
    Wonder what you think of VOD down here?  Looking to start a lont-term position in a IRA.  Do you like a particular Buy-Write or Artificial? Thanks!

  24. rustle123

    If there are any fugitives on this site, you might want to watch this:
     
    http://www.upworthy.com/how-to-get-past-the-us-border-in-20-seconds-or-less?c=upw1

  25. albo

    DELL & HPQ having nice days for a change.

  26. nicha

    Strong bounce lines rejected.

  27. Pharmboy

    GLD….that is a huge move.  Rolling 170s weekly to next weeks 170s.  1/2 cover.

  28. jabobeast

    albo--and BBY is even up a nickel..
     
    Jimmy had a nickel?

  29. phil

    Looking good with an hour left to trade – hopefully they don't find a reason to give it back and give up our strong bounces. 

    McClellan/Rustle – Yep, bounce back a little too fast for comfort:

    NYMO

    But slower moving Summation Index still on the oversold side so we may still have legs:

    NSYI

    TSLA/Hextra – You can improve this position (and any) by not being a sucker and buying premium and thinking it's an investment.  That's like "investing" in 500 gallons of milk when you think it's on sale – unless you're going to drink it all in 5 days – you end up with something worthless.   The Jan $30s are $2 in the money and trading at $2.60.  You can roll it to the 2014 (next Jan) $28/32 bull call spread at $2.20 and that will get you $1.70 back if they hold $32.  Of course you need more than 1x if your intention is to make back all you've lost but you can either sell short calls for income, like the Jan $32 calls to some sucker who will pay you $1.50 to be out of the money or you can also sell short puts, like the 2015 $20 puts at $5.30, which nets you in for $14.70 which is MORE THAN 50% OFF the current price of $32.  If you don't like TSLA enough to sell those puts – what on earth are you doing spending $5 to bet it's over $35 in Jan in the first place?  See how much more fun it is to let some other sucker pay the premium?

    VOD/GBase – I like them long-term but, as an EU company, could be years of suffering before they get there.  So a conservative buy/write with a 25% allocation, buying the stock for $25.38 and selling the 2015 $23 calls for $3.30 and the $20 puts for $1.80 nets you in at $20.28/20.14 so your worst 2x case is being assigned at a 20% discount.  Over 2 years, you should collect another $2 in dividends so then you have a net of $18.28/19.14 on round one and, going forward from there, that $1 dividend becomes a much more exciting looking 5.5%.

    Fugitives/Rustle – Thanks, I'll keep that on my IPhone, just in case…  8)  

    Some people taking the money and running into the close – especially at the RUT – hopefully it doesn't catch on.

    Got to go – have a good weekend folks!

    I'll be around and working on a list of good dividend plays.

  30. albo

    jabobeast – Good one.  ….and I understand my local Radio Shack had 3 people who raced into the store at midnight.

  31. scottmi

    Portlandia – oh my. Was just introduced to this. Too funny! Season one avilable via netflix.
    http://movies.netflix.com/WiMovie/Portlandia/70185015?trkid=2361637

  32. yodi

    sank1
    AAPL weeklies 560c looks like we holding these though I hold the 565 and 570 can be big movements over a week so hold on!!!

  33. Pharmboy

    Now that is ridiculous…..

  34. biodieselchris

    wow, AAPL is on a wild ride. Keep in mind this is the most valuable company in the world. 100's of billions in market cap moving one way or the other is big deal.

  35. tommyt

    Hey Phil,
    thanks for the AA buy write yesterday its the weekend and im reminding you as asked to mention the
     very conservative dividend-paying blue chips with solid cash-flows that you are almost 100% certain will be there in 20 years list .
    thanks and have great thankgiving weekend.
    tommyt

  36. jfawcett

    BBY – I was out shopping all day.  Stopped at a Satellite BBY, good foot traffic (3 sales clerks helping away).  Then stopped at a Big Box Store, GREAT deals and the TV deals were better priced/value than Walmarts (The Walmart I stopped at was not busy) for sure.  TBBY was doing a late afternoon door buster, 55" Samsung top of line LED for 800.00 (almost 1/2 off).  The Xbox 360 for 100.00 off.  And the store was really busy at 4pm in the afternoon.  I did ask many sales/managers how the day was going, they all said slower than last year.

  37. stjeanluc

    Tough to read anything in this week's move as the volume kept on dropping all week (look at the volume bar in SPX) with Friday's volume very low as expected with half a day!

  38. jfawcett

    Las Vegas Shopping Season Update:  Yeah.. What can I say, my wife likes to get the holiday shopping out of the way.  I was in Walmart, a Nike outlet store, and Fry's (A big box retailer like BBY).  All 3 stores, the day after Black Friday, are dead!  No one is shopping.  My wife is getting numerous text messages that say the Black Friday deals are being extended.  Seems the initial POP happened then fizzled.

  39. dclark41

    Shopping from Chicago:
    I was at Macy's on the magnificent mile in Chicago.  The shopping on friday was slow in the morning and then very brisk and heavy in the afternoon and evening.  Thank god my wife doesn't like crowds as we checked out to a bar once the crowds got rediculous. Looked steady to busy (but not overwhelming) on Saturday.
    It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers were down for the small boutique retailers. On the other hand the big box retailers like Macy's and Bloomingdales were very busy with active buyers.
    The restaurants were all full and busy although we were able to get reservations one day in advance.

  40. Pharmboy

    San Diego (North County)…..dead.  Costco was busy, but not crazy.  Target, BBY, HD (I live there) were all just normal.  Forum (a high end outdoor mall) was busy….AAPL store there was crazy….but no one was walking out with anything…..interesting.

  41. stjeanluc

    My youngest daughter works at a store in the mall and she closed yesterday. She told me that they did better than last year.

  42. zeroxzero

    Miami Beach Best Buy was packed, and people were definitely buying.  Long waits for telephones, Samsungs flying out the door, Apples seemed to be selling, too.  Nobody seemed to be walking out without carrying a box or bag.

  43. zeroxzero

    Correction, Miami Beach, maybe a different client base.

  44. zeroxzero

    Received some queries from Europe about U.S. equities and a potential 40% tax rate on dividends on the way.  The suggestion was to switch to European or Japanese equities, both with falling currencies as a tailwind.  Any opinions, contrary or otherwise, would be of interest.

  45. jfawcett

    dclark / ChiTown – I miss the mile.  Grew up in Chicago, moved 30 years ago to Vegas.  Something about cold and the holidays…

  46. dclark41

    Jfawsett
    Chicago is still a lot of fun so I can understand why you would miss it. It's still one of our favorite towns to visit. The surrounding towns are great, food is fabulous, and you can't beat the atmosphere during the holidays on Michigan Avenue or State Street.
    Cold/ we actually got two seasons while we were their this time.  I ran along the Lake Michigan shore line on Wednesday and Thursday (60 degrees and sunny), but things returned to normal (windy, and 30's) on Friday and Saturday. We spent a lot time in the West Loop and Lincoln Park areas. I ate and watched football at numerous restaurants/bars as my wife shopped. 
    We love your town too.  My wife's mom lives in Summerlin. 

  47. phil

    Good morning!

    I hope everyone had a fine Thanksgiving.  Mine was good but I overdid it (still sick) so it knocked me out.  Also, turns out I was alergic to one of the pills they were giving me so now I have to recover from that.  You would really think medicine would be more advanced in this day an age than just trying stuff to see if it kills you or makes you better…

    Dividends/Tommy, et al – That's my plan for the day.  

    Retail/Jfaw – Thanks for the report (and to others – great to get everyone's shopping perspectives).  I stayed away from the mall so far this weekend – just not feeling up to the hassle. Tried to see James Bond yesterday and that was sold out.   

    Big Chart – Still working on that "V" pattern but that would mean big up day tomorrow or, at least, Tuesday. 

    Foreign Equities/ZZ – Interesting idea.  If it's a tax advantage to you – it's worth considering.  FTSE should do about same as S&P over time so, if you are comfortable with those stocks and you really have a 40% tax advantage – sure, it's worth considering but I very much doubt there will be that kind of spread.  

    Vegas/Jfaw – Don't they have  a mile-long shopping thing?  

    Black Friday sales slipped 1.8% to $11.2B, research firm ShopperTrak estimates, although traffic rose 3.5% to 307.7M store visits. One reason for the revenue decline is that Thanksgiving openings took some of the Black Friday sales away, as did retailers offering early deals on their Web sites. Another factor might have been the constant adjusting of prices by retailers as they tried to match or undercut each other.

    Total Black Friday revenue may have fallen, but online sales jumped 20.7%, IBM estimates. That followed an increase of 17.4% on Thanksgiving day. Shoppers are increasingly using their mobile devices to compare prices, with 24% of consumers accessing a retailer's site with a phone or tablet vs 14.3% last year.

    Waiting around for Black Friday data on retailers is a worthless guide to how the stock market will perform through the end of the year, says Mark Hulbert. In fact, there is some evidence that those reports could be counter-intuitive. Hulbert reviewed Black Friday data all the way back to the early 1980s and found an inverse inverse correlation with stock performance. Whenever the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up strongly over the two post-Thanksgiving trading sessions – due in large part to strong Black Friday results – the market tended to fall from then through the end of December. 

     

  48. Pharmboy

    Something to think about.

  49. Pharmboy

    link to above chart here.

  50. deano

    Pharm – interesting stuff – whose the chartist?
    Phil – suggestions for the dividends list: WM, DD, NSC, MSFT, and FCX. All should have good liquidity, dividend coverage, and enough volatility to position decent buy-writes and some additional monthly option sells. Hope that helps,

  51. Pharmboy

    For those interested in a Vegas Summary…it is here

    Have a great Sunday!

  52. Pharmboy

    deano – Gann360.  Pulled from SocialTrade.

  53. Cap

    Hi Peoples ….
    interesting chart Pharm ..
    We may indeed have a V … the obvious thing to point out is the bottom and reversal in AAPL …. I suspect the market will have strength so long as AAPL does ….
    Energy & Metals are lagging noticeably … would like to see those rocket instead of tech (personal bias).

  54. shadowfax

    Retail report from the lower side at high elevation
    Checked out the door busters locally 10 minutes before closing Friday, even the $10 pet beds were left, comment by chashier. Returned Saterday at closing, cat beds gone but still free 25 foot tape measures with $5 purchase along with $2.99 slow cookers. The on sale beer was gone! Really, the worst ever!

  55. stjeanluc

    Big comeback for the Income Virtual Portfolio last week. BBY still dragging us down but HPQ coming back a little bit. Still in a hole overall with SVU, HPQ and BBY – $50K of the $59K closed losses between them. Patience needed with these turnaround plays. BBY still looks like the toughest one…

  56. dclark41

    Stjean:
     
    I think these were added to income portfolio.
     
    DMND finally put out their restated earnings and wiped out all profits from 2010 & 2011 and the cost of integrating Pringles and legal/accounting costs and other one-time fees are hitting them for a $2.46 per share loss so far this year BUT, if you take out those one-time costs, they actually earned .53 per what is now $15.19 share.  I figure they are good for at least $1 a share going forward and the 2015 $17 puts are now $6 for a net $11 entry so let's add just 5 of those to the Income Portfolio as we may very well DD at $8 if things go the wrong way and we can also play the 2014 $15/22 bull call spread for $2, which gives us a potential for $11 of upside at $22 and we're up $4 at $15 so we can fearlessly sell front-month calls against our net $4 credit once they stabilize.  

  57. stjeanluc

    Thanks Dc… I'll add that position.

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