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  1. phil

    SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Big Wheee! on oil overnight to $96.37 with the old contract at $96.11.  If it weren't a scam, then why would the August contract fall just because July is expiring today.  In fact, wouldn't the Aug contract be more in demand from rolling while the July is selling off?  But no, they go down together to make sure the NYMEX boys can do those rolls as cheaply as possible to keep the scam going another month.  

    Sorry to go on about this but I've decided to make more people aware of what's going in in the hopes that, someday, one of you will happen to talk to someone who matters and something actually gets done about this stuff.  In fact, my article yesterday was refused by SeekingAlpha.  That has only happened once before and also when I was critical of the oil scam.  They're owned by VCs now and who knows what their agenda is.  Just another example of the top 1% taking control of the media while the sheeple have the illusion that they're reading a "free" press.  

    After being down around 1.5% yesterday, the Futures are down 0.75% this morning and a decelerating decline is not so bad so we'll see if we can escape with this minor correction but I'm pretty confident in my Dow 15,000 prediction for today – the Futures have already failed it at 14,957.   14,950 should be some support, as should 1,610 on the S&P and 975 on the RUT but the Nas has already failed to hold 2,937, which was S1 in the Futures.  If they don't get it together by the open, that could indicate another 1.5% drop today. 

    SPY DAILYAsia, which we were already concerned about, is down 2.5% across the board.  Keep in mind, that's the 5% Rule as it's very hard for major indexes to fall more than that in a day and they were, generally, saved by the bell.  

    Europe's majors are all down 2% at the open and any time you have lock-synch moves like this you know someone(s) very big simply hit the SELLSELLSELL button on their TradeBots and we're having what they HOPE is a controlled descent.  That's why you see these cute little stepping patterns on the way down – that's how computers sell.  God help us if those programs aren't getting us out fast enough and the humans start selling – those guys are prone to panic! 

    The Dollar is way up at 81.2, from 80.50 pre-Bernanke so that's about 1% of the damage caused by the Dollar so, again, this sell-off is not as bad as it looks and, so far, controlled by Bots.  The Euro fell back to $1.32 but held that so far and the Pound bounced off $1.54 but that was 2% down from $1.57 pre-Fed.  Somehow, the Yen managed to get weaker and is near 98 

    In London, PM Abe Praises 'Japan's Keynes' as Model - In London, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an intriguing revelation about who inspired his dramatic stimulus policy: Korekiyo Takahashi, a historical figure known as "Japan's Keynes."

    Japanese Trade-Off - Devaluing the yen will hurt consumers in an aging society.

    The Nikkei itself officially fell 230 points and closed at 13,014 but, after hours, the Futures jumped back to 13,400 in that giant charade they call the Japanese stock market.  This is a new thing so I'm not quite sure what to make of it but it does seem to indicate that we're not likely to go too much lower without some new shocker. 

    Keep in mind, Bernanke didn't touch QE, he only answered a question and essentially said that, yes, if the economy rapidly improves more than expected then it is possible to end QE earlier than expected and that's what spooked the markets which, as we well know, are only this high BECAUSE of  QE.   Dave Fry sums it up nicely:

    Today’s Bernanke presentation was confusing and could be a movie like Bedknobs & Broomsticks. What he acknowledged was that QE’s got to end sometime. As he indicated, there are “thresholds” that need to be crossed which “could” lead to “triggers” which would then begin to taper QE. His stated view was that tapering could begin in the last quarter of 2013 and QE could end by the middle of 2014. This is all dependent of course on general economic data as the Fed wants lower unemployment at 6.5% or lower, and inflation higher at the 2% level. In any event, the Fed does not expect to raise the Fed Funds Rate, currently .25%, before 2015.

    6-19-2013 5-45-24 PM ben

    Since the last week of May, the idea the Fed would start tapering or reducing QE sooner rather than later had already affected bond markets by raising overall yields. Bond vigilantes ignored Bernanke's message and sold bonds even harder on Wednesday after the announcement. Ultimately the Fed can fix their rates at .25% but bond vigilantes in the open market can take charge and push yields higher. Then the Fed loses control.

    That’s about all I can make of it now.

    Can't argue with that.  

    As long as the Dollar is over 82, it's not a good spot to be bullish but oil over $96.50 is now playable bullish but with very tight stops under (/CL) and gold has collapsed to $1,306 and that $1,300 line is an obvious place to go lone (/YG) and, because AAPL is down at $420 and should be bouncy there, I like /NQ long off that 2,937 support but all of these with very tight stops until we see the Dollar break back down or Europe perking up (not likely before their lunch in another hour). 

    Keep in mind we're only long here to lock in the nice gains we have being short in our regular positions.  





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Zero Hedge

"The Situation In Iraq Has Become Very Dangerous"- Iraq PM Orders Arrests As Mass Protests Continue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following yesterday's dramatic escalation in Iraq's suddenly very unstable political situation, when Beghdad was put under a state of emergency after supporters of popular Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr breached the heavily fortified Green Zone and stormed both the parliament and government offices - an event which we dubbed the collapse of the US-created political system in Iraq - the situation has continued to deteriorate. 

Protesters reached the cabinet headquarters inside the Green Zone, storming th...



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ValueWalk

Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Meeting - Resources And Highlights

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are going to have a TON of coverage on the annual meeting but in the meantime I wanted to put some of the best material and coverage I have seen on the meeting – I hope I do a decent job

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance

Courtesy of Mish.

Just yesterday Nate Silver projected Ted Cruz had a 65% chance of Cruz winning despite the fact that the five most recent polls all had Donald Trump winning.

Today Silver flushed his secret sauce down the toilet, where it belonged all along.

Hail Mary Pass Revisited

This is what things looked like to Silver yesterday as I commented in Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up.

Indiana Polls Plus

The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and s...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buffett Says Bonds Unattractive, If Not Terrible for Reinsurers (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by reinvesting premiums from insurance units, said low bond yields have hurt the prospects of that strategy.

A Leak Wounded This Company. Fighting the Feds Finished It Off (Bloomberg)

The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how...



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Chart School

First Majastic Silver Wyckoff Friendly

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.

The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!


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PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'

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NOTE: readthe...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100- Potentially Very Dangerous Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.

A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.

Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).

The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turn...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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