Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.) Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Big Wheee! on oil overnight to $96.37 with the old contract at $96.11.  If it weren't a scam, then why would the August contract fall just because July is expiring today.  In fact, wouldn't the Aug contract be more in demand from rolling while the July is selling off?  But no, they go down together to make sure the NYMEX boys can do those rolls as cheaply as possible to keep the scam going another month.  

    Sorry to go on about this but I've decided to make more people aware of what's going in in the hopes that, someday, one of you will happen to talk to someone who matters and something actually gets done about this stuff.  In fact, my article yesterday was refused by SeekingAlpha.  That has only happened once before and also when I was critical of the oil scam.  They're owned by VCs now and who knows what their agenda is.  Just another example of the top 1% taking control of the media while the sheeple have the illusion that they're reading a "free" press.  

    After being down around 1.5% yesterday, the Futures are down 0.75% this morning and a decelerating decline is not so bad so we'll see if we can escape with this minor correction but I'm pretty confident in my Dow 15,000 prediction for today – the Futures have already failed it at 14,957.   14,950 should be some support, as should 1,610 on the S&P and 975 on the RUT but the Nas has already failed to hold 2,937, which was S1 in the Futures.  If they don't get it together by the open, that could indicate another 1.5% drop today. 

    SPY DAILYAsia, which we were already concerned about, is down 2.5% across the board.  Keep in mind, that's the 5% Rule as it's very hard for major indexes to fall more than that in a day and they were, generally, saved by the bell.  

    Europe's majors are all down 2% at the open and any time you have lock-synch moves like this you know someone(s) very big simply hit the SELLSELLSELL button on their TradeBots and we're having what they HOPE is a controlled descent.  That's why you see these cute little stepping patterns on the way down – that's how computers sell.  God help us if those programs aren't getting us out fast enough and the humans start selling – those guys are prone to panic! 

    The Dollar is way up at 81.2, from 80.50 pre-Bernanke so that's about 1% of the damage caused by the Dollar so, again, this sell-off is not as bad as it looks and, so far, controlled by Bots.  The Euro fell back to $1.32 but held that so far and the Pound bounced off $1.54 but that was 2% down from $1.57 pre-Fed.  Somehow, the Yen managed to get weaker and is near 98 

    In London, PM Abe Praises 'Japan's Keynes' as Model - In London, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an intriguing revelation about who inspired his dramatic stimulus policy: Korekiyo Takahashi, a historical figure known as "Japan's Keynes."

    Japanese Trade-Off - Devaluing the yen will hurt consumers in an aging society.

    The Nikkei itself officially fell 230 points and closed at 13,014 but, after hours, the Futures jumped back to 13,400 in that giant charade they call the Japanese stock market.  This is a new thing so I'm not quite sure what to make of it but it does seem to indicate that we're not likely to go too much lower without some new shocker. 

    Keep in mind, Bernanke didn't touch QE, he only answered a question and essentially said that, yes, if the economy rapidly improves more than expected then it is possible to end QE earlier than expected and that's what spooked the markets which, as we well know, are only this high BECAUSE of  QE.   Dave Fry sums it up nicely:

    Today’s Bernanke presentation was confusing and could be a movie like Bedknobs & Broomsticks. What he acknowledged was that QE’s got to end sometime. As he indicated, there are “thresholds” that need to be crossed which “could” lead to “triggers” which would then begin to taper QE. His stated view was that tapering could begin in the last quarter of 2013 and QE could end by the middle of 2014. This is all dependent of course on general economic data as the Fed wants lower unemployment at 6.5% or lower, and inflation higher at the 2% level. In any event, the Fed does not expect to raise the Fed Funds Rate, currently .25%, before 2015.

    6-19-2013 5-45-24 PM ben

    Since the last week of May, the idea the Fed would start tapering or reducing QE sooner rather than later had already affected bond markets by raising overall yields. Bond vigilantes ignored Bernanke's message and sold bonds even harder on Wednesday after the announcement. Ultimately the Fed can fix their rates at .25% but bond vigilantes in the open market can take charge and push yields higher. Then the Fed loses control.

    That’s about all I can make of it now.

    Can't argue with that.  

    As long as the Dollar is over 82, it's not a good spot to be bullish but oil over $96.50 is now playable bullish but with very tight stops under (/CL) and gold has collapsed to $1,306 and that $1,300 line is an obvious place to go lone (/YG) and, because AAPL is down at $420 and should be bouncy there, I like /NQ long off that 2,937 support but all of these with very tight stops until we see the Dollar break back down or Europe perking up (not likely before their lunch in another hour). 

    Keep in mind we're only long here to lock in the nice gains we have being short in our regular positions.  





Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.)


See our disclaimer here.

 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

China Seeks Baby Boom Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of Mish.

China now encourages childbearing to keep the economy humming and to stave off a demographic decline. Will a new baby boom do the trick?

Please consider China Seeks Baby Boom to Counter Low Birth Rates.

Chinese authorities are looking at ways to encourage people to have more children, less than 18 months after dropping the country’s contentious one-child policy in a bid to boost birth rates and stave off a demographic decline.

The Communist party introduced the one-child policy in 1979 to tackle population growth. It was scrapped in late 2015 following years of warnings from demographers over low birth rates and an aging population.

“Women’s attitudes towards childbir...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Big-Money Speculators Are Buying Up and Renting Out Farms, and Pricing Real Farmers out of the Market

By AlertNet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

tpsdave / PixabayBig-Money Speculators Are Buying Up and Renting Out Farms, and Pricing Real Farmers out of the Market

John Steinbeck’s novel “Grapes of Wrath.” Woody Guthrie’s ballad “Deportee.” Edward R. Murrow’s documentary “Harvest of Shame.” Every decade or so, the public is shocked by yet another discovery that migrant farmworkers are being horribly abused by the wealthy masters of the corporate food system. And here we go again. Last November, the New York Times…

]]>

The post Big-Money Speculators Are Buy...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Look everywhere, trouble brewing in Europe, China and US. How can the change thats coming not break something?

Good video covering Europe, China and US!




Gann angles (1 point to draw a line, not 2 like a trend line)

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



Apex, a point of demand and supply battle to end, and a price move for the winner.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load...

more from Chart School

Mapping The Market

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

Courtesy of Jean Luc

Good article about facts and why we reject them:

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS

New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

By Elizabeth Kolbert

In “Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us” (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what’s hazardous is not being vaccinated; that’s why vaccines were created in the first place. “Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine,” the Gormans no...



more from M.T.M.

Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

US stocks finish at record high. Gold and silver at multi-week highs. Bitcoin near all-time high. Trump national security adviser scandal evolving, EPA chief controversy ramping up after email release. Debate over Putin and fake news intensifies.  

Best Of The Web

It’s bubble time! – Peak Prosperity

Dazed & confused… Treasury buying vs. asset valuations? – Econimica

...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Surges To Record High, China Prepares Its Own Digital Currency

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock (Mish)

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over $1200 today.

Traders are happy because the SEC is expected to rule on a Bitcoin ETF by March 11.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency.
 

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency. That’s taking it a step closer to becoming one of the first major central...

more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

The Manchurian President

 

The Manchurian President

Courtesy of  at BillMoyers.com

As the Trump presidency unravels, unraveling the country along with it, there is no real political antecedent, no lessons from American history on which to draw and provide guidance. We are in entirely uncharted waters.

But there is an antecedent in our popular culture that provides a prism through which to view the contemporary calamity, especially the alleged collusion between Trump’s henchmen and Russian intelligence to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency. I am not the first observer who has ...



more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



more from Promotions

Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

more from Biotech

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>