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  1. phil

    SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Big Wheee! on oil overnight to $96.37 with the old contract at $96.11.  If it weren't a scam, then why would the August contract fall just because July is expiring today.  In fact, wouldn't the Aug contract be more in demand from rolling while the July is selling off?  But no, they go down together to make sure the NYMEX boys can do those rolls as cheaply as possible to keep the scam going another month.  

    Sorry to go on about this but I've decided to make more people aware of what's going in in the hopes that, someday, one of you will happen to talk to someone who matters and something actually gets done about this stuff.  In fact, my article yesterday was refused by SeekingAlpha.  That has only happened once before and also when I was critical of the oil scam.  They're owned by VCs now and who knows what their agenda is.  Just another example of the top 1% taking control of the media while the sheeple have the illusion that they're reading a "free" press.  

    After being down around 1.5% yesterday, the Futures are down 0.75% this morning and a decelerating decline is not so bad so we'll see if we can escape with this minor correction but I'm pretty confident in my Dow 15,000 prediction for today – the Futures have already failed it at 14,957.   14,950 should be some support, as should 1,610 on the S&P and 975 on the RUT but the Nas has already failed to hold 2,937, which was S1 in the Futures.  If they don't get it together by the open, that could indicate another 1.5% drop today. 

    SPY DAILYAsia, which we were already concerned about, is down 2.5% across the board.  Keep in mind, that's the 5% Rule as it's very hard for major indexes to fall more than that in a day and they were, generally, saved by the bell.  

    Europe's majors are all down 2% at the open and any time you have lock-synch moves like this you know someone(s) very big simply hit the SELLSELLSELL button on their TradeBots and we're having what they HOPE is a controlled descent.  That's why you see these cute little stepping patterns on the way down – that's how computers sell.  God help us if those programs aren't getting us out fast enough and the humans start selling – those guys are prone to panic! 

    The Dollar is way up at 81.2, from 80.50 pre-Bernanke so that's about 1% of the damage caused by the Dollar so, again, this sell-off is not as bad as it looks and, so far, controlled by Bots.  The Euro fell back to $1.32 but held that so far and the Pound bounced off $1.54 but that was 2% down from $1.57 pre-Fed.  Somehow, the Yen managed to get weaker and is near 98 

    In London, PM Abe Praises 'Japan's Keynes' as Model - In London, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an intriguing revelation about who inspired his dramatic stimulus policy: Korekiyo Takahashi, a historical figure known as "Japan's Keynes."

    Japanese Trade-Off - Devaluing the yen will hurt consumers in an aging society.

    The Nikkei itself officially fell 230 points and closed at 13,014 but, after hours, the Futures jumped back to 13,400 in that giant charade they call the Japanese stock market.  This is a new thing so I'm not quite sure what to make of it but it does seem to indicate that we're not likely to go too much lower without some new shocker. 

    Keep in mind, Bernanke didn't touch QE, he only answered a question and essentially said that, yes, if the economy rapidly improves more than expected then it is possible to end QE earlier than expected and that's what spooked the markets which, as we well know, are only this high BECAUSE of  QE.   Dave Fry sums it up nicely:

    Today’s Bernanke presentation was confusing and could be a movie like Bedknobs & Broomsticks. What he acknowledged was that QE’s got to end sometime. As he indicated, there are “thresholds” that need to be crossed which “could” lead to “triggers” which would then begin to taper QE. His stated view was that tapering could begin in the last quarter of 2013 and QE could end by the middle of 2014. This is all dependent of course on general economic data as the Fed wants lower unemployment at 6.5% or lower, and inflation higher at the 2% level. In any event, the Fed does not expect to raise the Fed Funds Rate, currently .25%, before 2015.

    6-19-2013 5-45-24 PM ben

    Since the last week of May, the idea the Fed would start tapering or reducing QE sooner rather than later had already affected bond markets by raising overall yields. Bond vigilantes ignored Bernanke's message and sold bonds even harder on Wednesday after the announcement. Ultimately the Fed can fix their rates at .25% but bond vigilantes in the open market can take charge and push yields higher. Then the Fed loses control.

    That’s about all I can make of it now.

    Can't argue with that.  

    As long as the Dollar is over 82, it's not a good spot to be bullish but oil over $96.50 is now playable bullish but with very tight stops under (/CL) and gold has collapsed to $1,306 and that $1,300 line is an obvious place to go lone (/YG) and, because AAPL is down at $420 and should be bouncy there, I like /NQ long off that 2,937 support but all of these with very tight stops until we see the Dollar break back down or Europe perking up (not likely before their lunch in another hour). 

    Keep in mind we're only long here to lock in the nice gains we have being short in our regular positions.  





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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal. All five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), iShares' Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), PowerShares DB (DBC), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) — are signaling "invested", changed from last month's quadruple invested signal.

...

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Zero Hedge

Hillary Has Until September 29 To Respond - Under Oath - To These 25 Questions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Judicial Watch announced on its website today that it has submitted a list of 25 questions to Hillary Clinton regarding her email practices while serving as Secretary of State.  Pursuant to a decision by U.S. District Court Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, Hillary has 30 days to respond, under oath, to the questions.  Per federal law, Judicial Watch was limited to a total of 25 q...



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ValueWalk

Michael Mauboussin - Market Myths And Market Reality

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Michael Mauboussin – Market Myths And Market Reality

Michael Mauboussin is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012), Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Harvard Business Press, 2009) and ...



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Phil's Favorites

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

 

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

By Elliott Wave International

Some people like to get outside on the weekends, maybe playing tennis or working in the yard. Some people like to visit their friends or cook a big meal or go out to see a movie. And some people who are passionate about their work -- such as Elliott Wave International's futures analyst Jeffrey Kennedy -- like to stare at hundreds of price charts on their computer screen to find patterns that point to trade setups. We used to worry for his health but not anymore, because he's been doing it for years and he comes up with some neat stuff. A case in point is his discovery of a two-bar pattern that he named the Popgun. Find out more in this excerpt from the Club EWI eBoo...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed’s Fischer Says Negative Rates Seem to Work in Today’s World (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said negative interest rates seem to be working in other countries, while reinforcing that they aren’t on the table in the U.S.

French Trade Minister Says U.S. Talks Dead as TTIP Wobbles (Bloomberg)

France&rsq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

US Dollar/Yen testing important support zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar/Yen is facing a trio of potential support lines at this time with few people bullish the US$/Yen at Stocktwits. What happens at this potential support zone, could well impact the Risk On trade from now until year end.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The trend in the US$/Yen remains down for the past few months, as the YEN has been stronger than the US$. The US$/YEN remains inside of a steep falling channel over the past 10-months.

The bottom of this steep falling channel and two ot...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio -week of August 29th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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