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  1. phil

    SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Big Wheee! on oil overnight to $96.37 with the old contract at $96.11.  If it weren't a scam, then why would the August contract fall just because July is expiring today.  In fact, wouldn't the Aug contract be more in demand from rolling while the July is selling off?  But no, they go down together to make sure the NYMEX boys can do those rolls as cheaply as possible to keep the scam going another month.  

    Sorry to go on about this but I've decided to make more people aware of what's going in in the hopes that, someday, one of you will happen to talk to someone who matters and something actually gets done about this stuff.  In fact, my article yesterday was refused by SeekingAlpha.  That has only happened once before and also when I was critical of the oil scam.  They're owned by VCs now and who knows what their agenda is.  Just another example of the top 1% taking control of the media while the sheeple have the illusion that they're reading a "free" press.  

    After being down around 1.5% yesterday, the Futures are down 0.75% this morning and a decelerating decline is not so bad so we'll see if we can escape with this minor correction but I'm pretty confident in my Dow 15,000 prediction for today – the Futures have already failed it at 14,957.   14,950 should be some support, as should 1,610 on the S&P and 975 on the RUT but the Nas has already failed to hold 2,937, which was S1 in the Futures.  If they don't get it together by the open, that could indicate another 1.5% drop today. 

    SPY DAILYAsia, which we were already concerned about, is down 2.5% across the board.  Keep in mind, that's the 5% Rule as it's very hard for major indexes to fall more than that in a day and they were, generally, saved by the bell.  

    Europe's majors are all down 2% at the open and any time you have lock-synch moves like this you know someone(s) very big simply hit the SELLSELLSELL button on their TradeBots and we're having what they HOPE is a controlled descent.  That's why you see these cute little stepping patterns on the way down – that's how computers sell.  God help us if those programs aren't getting us out fast enough and the humans start selling – those guys are prone to panic! 

    The Dollar is way up at 81.2, from 80.50 pre-Bernanke so that's about 1% of the damage caused by the Dollar so, again, this sell-off is not as bad as it looks and, so far, controlled by Bots.  The Euro fell back to $1.32 but held that so far and the Pound bounced off $1.54 but that was 2% down from $1.57 pre-Fed.  Somehow, the Yen managed to get weaker and is near 98 

    In London, PM Abe Praises 'Japan's Keynes' as Model - In London, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made an intriguing revelation about who inspired his dramatic stimulus policy: Korekiyo Takahashi, a historical figure known as "Japan's Keynes."

    Japanese Trade-Off - Devaluing the yen will hurt consumers in an aging society.

    The Nikkei itself officially fell 230 points and closed at 13,014 but, after hours, the Futures jumped back to 13,400 in that giant charade they call the Japanese stock market.  This is a new thing so I'm not quite sure what to make of it but it does seem to indicate that we're not likely to go too much lower without some new shocker. 

    Keep in mind, Bernanke didn't touch QE, he only answered a question and essentially said that, yes, if the economy rapidly improves more than expected then it is possible to end QE earlier than expected and that's what spooked the markets which, as we well know, are only this high BECAUSE of  QE.   Dave Fry sums it up nicely:

    Today’s Bernanke presentation was confusing and could be a movie like Bedknobs & Broomsticks. What he acknowledged was that QE’s got to end sometime. As he indicated, there are “thresholds” that need to be crossed which “could” lead to “triggers” which would then begin to taper QE. His stated view was that tapering could begin in the last quarter of 2013 and QE could end by the middle of 2014. This is all dependent of course on general economic data as the Fed wants lower unemployment at 6.5% or lower, and inflation higher at the 2% level. In any event, the Fed does not expect to raise the Fed Funds Rate, currently .25%, before 2015.

    6-19-2013 5-45-24 PM ben

    Since the last week of May, the idea the Fed would start tapering or reducing QE sooner rather than later had already affected bond markets by raising overall yields. Bond vigilantes ignored Bernanke's message and sold bonds even harder on Wednesday after the announcement. Ultimately the Fed can fix their rates at .25% but bond vigilantes in the open market can take charge and push yields higher. Then the Fed loses control.

    That’s about all I can make of it now.

    Can't argue with that.  

    As long as the Dollar is over 82, it's not a good spot to be bullish but oil over $96.50 is now playable bullish but with very tight stops under (/CL) and gold has collapsed to $1,306 and that $1,300 line is an obvious place to go lone (/YG) and, because AAPL is down at $420 and should be bouncy there, I like /NQ long off that 2,937 support but all of these with very tight stops until we see the Dollar break back down or Europe perking up (not likely before their lunch in another hour). 

    Keep in mind we're only long here to lock in the nice gains we have being short in our regular positions.  

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Zero Hedge

Leaked Soros Memo Exposes Obama's Secret TPP Negotiations; Hillary "Flip-Flopping"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In addition to providing a glimpse into the internal, and often confrontational, dialogue that took place within the Clinton campaign on topics ranging from Hillary's email server, to coordination and colusion with the media, to the planning how to attack Bernie Sanders, to the fascinating strife and conflicts of interest within the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative, the Podesta leaks have also been instrumental in providing the public with insight into Hillary's flip-flopping views on the TPP. Indeed, ...

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Phil's Favorites

Stocks Are Not Long Term Investment Vehicles (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss market theory in this video, and why stocks are not the long term investment vehicles they are purported to be. Pay attention to what phase a stock is in! Everything, i.e., stock prices are determined by fund flows and market structure far more than fundamental valuation concerns. When market participants quote fundamental metrics they are literally staring at individual blades of grass in the larger context of a huge forest.

Every asset right now in modern financial markets is uninvest able from a long term fundamental time horizon basis due to several factors, but namely bizarre centra...

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Misconceptions about the Nordic Economies

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Nordic Economies

Photo by sebilden

Misconceptions about the Nordic Economies

The Nordic countries are usually mentioned in the Spanish political debate as examples of well-functioning and efficient Welfare States where the government provides citizens with a large range of social benefits. (The terms “Nordic” and “Scandinavian” will be employed interchangeably to refer to Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Norway and Iceland are excluded from my analysis.) Politicians, especially on the left side of the political spectrum, look at Sweden, Denmark, or Finland as successful social democratic experiments in which social entitlements are guaranteed by the ben...

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Market News

New You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Trillion-Dollar Payout May Mean Peak Largesse for U.S. Investors (Bloomberg)

A total $600 billion in share repurchases and $400 billion in dividends will be doled out by S&P 500 Index members by the end of the year, the biggest combined payout in history, according to strategists at Barclays Plc. Gravy like that is getting tougher to sustain as corporate profits suffer a six-quarter slump and cash levels begin to dwindle.

Deutsche Bank Could Be The “Lehman Moment” Of 2016 (Value Walk)


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Insider Scoop

Rockwell Collins to Acquire B/E Aerospace for $8.3B

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) and B/E Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV)  today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Rockwell Collins will acquire B/E Aerospace for approximately $6.4 billion in cash and stock, plus the assumption of $1.9 billion in net debt.

Under the terms of the agreement, each B/E Aerospace shareowner will receive total consideration of $62.00 per share, comprised of $34.10 per share in cash and $27.90 in shares of Rockwell Collins common stock, subject to a 7.5% collar. This represents a premium of 22.5% to the closing price of B/E Aerospace common stock on Friday, Octob... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bio-Tech; In more trouble if this fails, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

At one point in time, actually for years, Bio-Tech (IBB) was a market leader. From the 2009 lows to 2015, IBB out gained the S&P by more than 250%. Since the summer of 2015, Bio Tech has remained a leader, a “downside leader!” IBB has lagged the S&P by over 35% in the past 15-months.

Is the downside leadership over for IBB? Below updates the pattern on IBB


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Chart School

SP500 Status Pre US 2016 Elections

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Where have we been, what does the future look like?

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NOTE: does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named

Investing Quote...

..."There is what I call the behaviour of a stock, actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted. If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it, because, be...

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Members' Corner

The Orlando Massacre Part 3

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

A continuation of a Naybob of IT's Natterings from Part 1 and Part 2...

While many Christian churches expressed grief and offered free funeral services for the victims of the Orlando shooting, the fundamentalist Westboro Baptist Church held an anti-gay protest during the funeral of the victims.

But the Westboro Baptist Church's protest rally was blocked by about 200 people who formed a human barricade on the main street in downtown Orlando, ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 17th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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