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PSW January Trade Review (Part 3)

Finally we get to January!  

Of course, it's silly to review trades less than two weeks after we initiate them. which is why these reviews are perpetually behind.  In fact, we still have the last two days of December to get to but now we'll finally, actually get to January in Part 3.  We left off in Part 2 with 13 of our 14 (92%) trade ideas for the holiday weeks coming up winners and Part 1 had just two trades – also winners (ABX and SSO) – back from Dec 7th, when we were still bullish.  

Without any further ado (than the first two parts, of course), let's get into the first week of January and see how we did:

Dec 27:  Monday Market Musings – End of the Year Edition

I was still feeling like Chicken Little because my warnings to get to cash into the Holidays still seemed to be baseless but I pointed out how FAKE I thought the rally was and how FAKE all the media cheerleading about strong holiday sales was – using this fantastic example of Corporate Contralled Media Manipulation from Conan.  As I noted:

The news is nothing more than a script written by the powers that be as we prepare to celebrate New Year's Eve of 1984+30 and, of course, the so-called "Financial Media" is nothing more than a propaganda machine aimed at whipping viewers into a buying frenzy that retailers can only wish for.

From an index standpoint, we have easy warning lines to watch like Dow 16,000, S&P 1,800, Nasdaq 4,000, NYSE 10,000 and Russell 1,100 – all very much in the clear now and we'll put new, more aggressive levels on as they move up – so we'll always know when to pull the plug on our long plays.  

  • GOOG June $900 puts at $9, out at $11.50 - up 22%
  • Oil (/CL) short at $100, out at $98.50 - up $1,500 per contract
  • Gold (/YG) long at $1,205, out at $1,210 - up $166 per contract  
  • MSFT July $36/41 bull call spread at $1.75, selling $30 puts for $2.75 for net $1 credit, now $1.23 - up 223%
  • LGF 2016 $28 puts, sold for $5.20, now $4.70 - up 9.6%

Overall, I doubt "THEY" are going to let the market fall when tomorrow is the day they print for the 2014 brochures – it just wouldn't make sense.  So let's not expect any big sell-offs ahead of Thursday, at the earliest.

It was also our first  Weekly Live Webcast and I'll try to catch those links so we can keep them in context for you. 

INDU WEEKLYDec 31:  Terminal Tuesday – 2013 Comes to an End 

Hard to imagine it being happier for the markets than 2013, with the indexes closing at record highs and investor optimism nearing 80% bullish – as good as it's been since October of 1929 – just day's before the crash.  Earnings were also looking great in 1929 and the gap between the top 1% and the bottom 99% had never been greater – until now.

Ken Langone is one rich person that won't be pushed around by the poor, telling New York's Cardinal Timothy Dolan that he needs to shut the Pope's trap if he wants to see any more donations for a new cathedral from his crowd.  "I've told the cardinal, 'Your Eminence, this is one more hurdle I hope we don't have to deal with. You want to be careful about generalities. Rich people in one country don't act the same as rich people in another country,' " Langone said.  And of course, he's right – rich people in other countries wouldn't have the balls to strong-arm the Pope!

  • Gold (/YG) long at $1,190, out at $1,210 - up $640 per contract
  • SHLD 2016 $45/70 bull call spread at $8, selling $40 puts for $10.70 for net $2.70 credit, now -$12 – down 344%
  • Gasoline (/RB) long at $2.78, out at $2.79 - up $420 per contract

Consumer Confidence/Scott – As noted yesterday, there's a massive brain-washing campaign pushing consumer and investor confidence.  To some extent, that's a logical way to boost an economy because a Depression is literally caused by people being depressed and unwilling to participate in economic commerce so, of course, it's good to do a little cheer-leading.  Still, like housing, we're talking about minor variations off a historically TERRIBLE number – so you shouldn't read too much into it:

Consumer confidence is so low that we forget that 200 is SUPER DUPER CONFIDENT and 0 is "not at all confident" with 100 being the middle or the range.  What caused riding confidence in December?  Well, we had more jobs, but that flattened out, and gasoline was down to $2.50 (wholesale) but it's back to $2.80 now and the Fed didn't taper and Congress didn't shut down the Government – Yay!  Let's see how confident people are as 1.3M people stop getting unemployment this month…

SPY 5 MINUTEJan 2:  2013+1 – What a Difference a Year Makes and 3 New Trade Ideas to Get Started! 

If the markets are going to continue to go up, I humply submit that there MAY be just a little more inflation on scarce things that rich people like to buy.  Stocks are one of those things, of course and art and, of course, GOLD!  Between now and the time our 3D printers will be able to print gold from lead, gold is likely to go up in value as the rich get richer.  So, if you are not able to go to Christies and bid $100M on a Warhol, I humbly suggest gold as a nice long-term investment for us little guys(those with under $50M liquid).

The ABX trade below was our "One Trade" to make for 2014 - a trade to put your money into and walk away for a year that should outperform the entire market.  Not that we recommend anything that drastic – just an indication of how much we believe in it.

  • Nasdaq (/NQ) short at 3,600, out at 3,510 - up $2,250 per contract
  • Oil (/CL) short at $99, out at $95.50 - up $3,500 per contract
  • 100 ABX $13/20 bull call spreads at $3, selling 100 ABX 2016 $13 puts for $1.80 for net $1.20 ($12,000), now $2.20 ($22,000) - up 83% ($10,000)
  • 30 CLF 2016 $20/30 bull call spreads at $4.25 ($12,750), selling 20 2016 $20 puts for $4.20 ($8,400) for net $4,350, now -$2,240 - down 148% ($6,590)
  • 10 Short Oil Feb 2014 (/CLG4) Contracts at $98.78, 10 Long Oil Dec 2019 (/CLZ19) Contracts at $79.80 – closed 1/21 at $94.88 (+3.90) and $76.76 (-3.04) for net 0.84 - up $8,400 on 10 contracts.  
  • TASR 2016 $13 puts sold for $2.80, now $2.45 - up 12.5%

Gold bug/Scott – I'm no gold bug but I can't see the Fed keeping a lid on inflation so many ways to win on gold off this price.

clip_image002Jan 6:  Monday Musings – It's Still the Economy, Stupid

That's all this is – just a big game with many forces manipulatiing the market while the Financial "News" Networks pretend it's not a farce.  While I do complain about the shenanigans and wish we had an honest system, I often say to our Members that:

"We don't care IF the markets are rigged as long as we are able to understand HOW they are rigged so we can place our bets accordingly."  

  • Oil (/CL) short at $94.50, out at $92.50 - up $2,000 per contract 
  • Nikkei (/NKD) short at 16,300, now 14,700 - up $8,000 per contract 
  • Russell (/TF) short at 1,160, now 1,113 - up $4,700 per contract 
  • Dow (/YM) short at 16,450, now 15,750 - up $3,500 per contract

Of course, as you can see from the JPM chart above, Japan is a bargain relative to US equities at the moment., with the US Markets a full 2 standard deviations above their average valuation – by far, the most expensive of all developed countries' stock markets.  As I said last quarter, there simply isn't anywhere else for money to go compared to other asset classes but, to deny that US Equities are in a bubble is REALLY putting your head firmly in the sand….

Jan 7:  Trending Tuesday – Still Going Up?  

It's only a little pullback – so far.  

As you can see from Doug Short's S&P chart, we're having a modest pullback on increasing volume as things return to "normal" following the holidays.  You can see why we elected to sit out the past two weeks – already the gains have reversed and we're right back to where we were just before Christmas, where we took the opportunity to get to CASH!!!

We've deployed that cash in a very profitable fashion with some great short-term plays, including last Thursday's short on oil.

It was a Webcast Day (Futures Trading Workshop!).  

  • Oil (/CL) long at $93.50, out at $94 - up $500 per contract
  • Nikkei (/NKD) short at 16,000 – out at 15,500 - up $2,500 per contract 
  • TZA Jan $17 calls at .52, selling $17 puts for .47 for net .05, closed at .25 - up 400%
  • Dow (/YM) short at 16,500, now 15,750 - up $3,750 per contract
  • LLY 2016 $50/57.50 bull call spread for $2.75, selling July $45 calls for $6.70 for net $3.95 credit, now -$5.10 - down 29%
  • LULU 2016 $50 puts sold for $7.75, now $11.25 - down 45%

Keep in mind, one of the reasons we do these reviews is to see if there are stocks we like that we can get a BETTER entry on than our original trade ideas.  Pharmboy thought LLY was overpriced and, at $53, the short July $45 calls now $8.25 and, of course, the long spread is not fully valued yet – so the spread is a BETTER entry than it was at the time.  In the case of LULU, we paid net $42.25 and they bottomed out at $44.32 and now back to $47.38 but NOW, you can net in for $38.75.  

See – that's an OPPORTUNITY – AFTER we tested the bottom we only suspected on 1/7.  

INDU WEEKLYJan 8:  Will We Hold It Wednesday  - S&P 1,825 Edition

The Nikkei came back to 16,200 in the Futures but has already fallen back to 16,100, so I'm not sure we'll see 16,300 again – but you never know with BOJ intervention.  The Hang Seng was up 1.25%, stopping right at the 23,000 line and very fake looking while the Shanghai sold off hard after an opening pop and then sold off hard again after a lunchtime pop to finish red for about the 15th time in a month.

On the whole, I like Nat gas (/NG) long here as the best bullish Futures play.   

  • Natural Gas (/NG) long at $4.27, out at $5.40 - up $11,300 per contract
  • Dow (/YM) short at 16,450, now 15,750 - up $3,500 per contract 
  • SQQQ Jan $14 calls at .70, selling $15 puts for .60 for net .10, out at .30 - up 200%
  • XLF short at $22, out at $20.75 - up 5.6%
  • PLX Aug $4 puts sold for .50, now .40 - up 20%
  • Russell (/TF) short at 1,150, now 1,113 - up $3,700 per contract
  • TZA Jan $17 calls at .50, selling $17 puts for .45 for net .05, closed at .20 - up 300%

Keep in mind that CASH has gained 1.5% since we went to it over the holidays – that's something investors often lose sight of – cash is also an asset class that, sometimes, we want to get into when it's cheap.  We had a situation where stocks were expensive-looking and cash was cheap, so we traded our stocks for cash – a very simple plan

Brokers don't like you to be in cash because cash is the gateway drug to savings and brokers and financial advisers don't have any incentives for you to get passive with your money.  They want your money in play, because that creates a need for their services and more fees for them. 

PLUG/BDC – That was way back at .60!  As a rule of thumb, I'd take 1/2 off at this point ($4.50) and stop the rest at $3.50 but at $2 I'd be looking to get back in as I do like them long-term, even up 650% (not counting the short put).  With the short put, it's exactly the 10-bagger we were shooting for – and a lot faster than expected!  Great call by you as you were the one that brought them up at the time!  

Jan 9:   Thursday Thrust – Futures Pop Back to Highs BUT We Smell Last Gasp

That's it, I'm officially the last bear in America.  

Well, according to the AAII Bull-Bear Sentiment Survey, anyway.  In the entire 23-year history of this survey, there have never been more bulls or less bears and, as you can see from the ratio, it won't be long now before they track me down and shoot me – well, that's what it feels like to be bearish in this market

I guess the people at Macy's are crazy too,they are closing 5 stores and laying off 2,500 people in the middle of the greatest bull market (sentiment-wise) in history.  It won't hurt their stock, of course, which is up 30% from last year (along with the rest of the market) and, in fact, BMO Capital just gave them an upgrade because firing people is what American Corporations are all about these days.

  • Natural Gas (/NG) long at $4.16 – out at $5.40 - up $12,400 per contract 
  • Oil (/CL) long at $92.50, out at $93 - up $500 per contract 
  • S&P (/ES) short at 1,840, now 1,793 - up $2,350 per contract 
  • Russell (/TF) short at 1,160, now 1,113 - up $4,700 per contract
  • Dow (/YM) short at 16,450, now 15.750 - up $3500 per contract 
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) short at 3,575, now 3,560 - up $300 per contract 
  • 50 TZA Jan $17 calls at .50, selling 50 Jan $17 puts for .40 for net .10 ($500), out at .45 ($2,250) - up 350%
  • FNSR 2015 $22/30 bull call spread at $4.20, selling $20 puts for $3.80 for net .40, now -.40 - down 200%
  • AAPL 2016 $500/650 bull call spread at $52.25, selling $450 puts for $47 for net $5.25, now -$1.85 - down 135%
  • UNG Jan 2014 $15/20 bull call spread at $3, selling 2016 $17 puts for $2 for net $1, out at $3.50 - up 250%
  • T 2016 $30/35 bull call spread at $2.30, selling $28 puts for $2.20 for net .10, now -.65 - down 750%

Gasoline taking off ($2.677), Nat gas just $4.166 (/NG) with inventories at 10:30 makes a fantastic long in the Futures.  Nat gas inventories are not stuffed like oil – I can't see how the cold doesn't draw it below the line.

Jan 10:   Non-Farm Friday – To Work or Not to Work, That is the Economic Question

hourly earnings for ALL the people who are employed dropped 50%, to an annualized 1.2% gain over last year from the previous 2.4% as more and more people are forced to take lower and lower wage jobs as Congress cuts their unemployment insurance (by the way, it's called insurance because you PAY for it while you are working).  

Although this is great news for Corporate America, I already put out a note to our Members to short the Russell at 1,160 because the ADP report showed strong jobs and the market went up.  Clearly, it went up under false pretenses, so we can expect at least a little bit of a re-adjustment. 

  • Russell (/TF) short at 1,160 – now 1,113 - up $4,700 per contract
  • 10 SSO March $92/97 bull call spreads at $3.20 ($3,200) selling 5 ISRG April $300 puts for $5 ($2,500) for net $700, now $2,650 - up 278%
  • LULU 2016 $50 puts sold for $10, now $11.25 - down 11.25%

Another tap at 1,160 on /TF. If they are going to keep pouring, we'll keep drinking!

Finally we made a dent in January.  I'll take a break here and, in the comments section, we'll go over our Portfolio moves (not included here).  As I noted that day, we love to keep going back to the well on those Futures trades and, of course, it's arbitrary to say NOW this price but it's a fair way to get an idea as some it favors and some it doesn't.  The Russell bottomed at at 1,100 – a $6,000 gain from our entry and, of course we went long there for the bounce – but it's easier to just figure the prices to the current day – unless we called out a specific exit on the positions.  

We made a lot more calls in the first two weeks of the month and it looks like we had 37 winners and 7 losers (82.5%), which drags us down to 51 and 8 (87.6%) in our January reviews (so far).  Of course, we try to balance with trades on both sides so, if we aren't losing at least some of our picks – then we're not hedging properly.  

 


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  1. Phil

    http://nyti.ms/M06I6n

    An increase would help 27.8 million people. It would also help balance power in the workplace.

  2. Phil

    http://nyti.ms/1aHmGNS

    Puerto Rico’s extended woes, including high unemployment and pervasive crime, are causing a worrisome exodus of professionals and middle-class residents to places like Florida and Texas.

  3. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 7, 2014, 5:17:47 PM

    Thanks, everyone, for a fun question day. Alas, that’s all I have time for. I’ll try to respond to the ones I didn’t get to in the comments under the Question Day announcement from this morning. Meanwhile, here’s the last one.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1gbNu6X
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  4. Phil

    Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1atqYbv

    Zell: The 1% Work Harder, Should Be Emulated
    Feb. 5: Equity International Founder and Chairman Sam Zell weighs in on the one percent and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s political woes.

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  5. Phil

    Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1ivRKzI

    Will You Buy a Keurig Cold Pod Soda System?
    Feb. 6: Coca-Cola agreed to buy a 10 percent stake in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for about $1.25 billion and work with the maker of Keurig coffee brewers to introduce a system for producing single-serve cold drinks.

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  6. Phil

    Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/LFpwav

    U.S. Borrowing Authority May Not Last
    Feb. 7: U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said U.S. borrowing authority may not last past Feb. 27 and urged Congress to extend the debt ceiling as soon as possible.

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  7. Phil

    Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1avc7xf

    Disney CEO Iger: I Love Mobile Technology
    Feb. 5: Chairman & CEO of Disney Bob Iger discusses how mobile has changed his strategy for growth opportunities for mobile gaming.

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  8. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 9, 2014, 11:00:00 AM

    South Korea’s won is leading a drop
    in Asian currencies this year, after gaining the most in the
    second half of 2013, as tapering of U.S. stimulus drains funds
    from emerging-market assets and China’s economy slows.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lQslX0
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  9. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 9, 2014, 3:00:02 PM

    Kuwait’s budget surplus adds up to
    almost $40,000 per citizen, one reason it’s hard to convince
    people like Nouf Mohammed that the government should spend less
    on services and subsidies for her.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1efeMX1
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  10. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 9, 2014, 3:00:01 PM

    Coutts & Co., the wealth management
    unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), said it doesn’t see a
    crisis in emerging markets and the firm’s rich clients are
    taking advantage of the recent declines to add to investments.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lhWT00
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  11. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 9, 2014, 1:00:00 PM

    Stronger Pacific Ocean winds may help
    explain the slowdown in the rate of global warming since the
    turn of the century, scientists said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o7gjHo
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  12. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 7, 2014, 4:09:25 AM

    Mario Draghi has put investors on a
    month’s notice for further economic stimulus after outlining the
    ingredients necessary for action.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/LVDMwg
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  13. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 6, 2014, 5:00:02 PM

    The $50 billion makeover of Sochi is visible from space.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dtYgCg
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  14. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 8, 2014, 11:00:00 AM

    When Bank of England Governor Mark Carney presents his quarterly economic forecasts this week, he
    faces a challenge similar to that faced by his colleagues at the
    Federal Reserve: how to convey the probable path of policy
    as stronger-than-expected growth moves up the likely date for
    reaching thresholds for considering an interest-rate increase.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bcLspR
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  15. Phil

    From Bloomberg, Feb 8, 2014, 9:00:20 AM

    China’s central bank said reasonable
    volatility in money-market interest rates must be tolerated as
    it manages liquidity in the country’s financial system to rein
    in credit growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lcdqCD
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8

  16. Phil

    Futures opening flat so far.  

    Oil $100.29, gold $1,267, silver $20.02, copper $3.245 (which isn't a good indicator of a proper rebound), Nat Gas $4.66, gasoline $2.75.

    Not too much interesting in the news. 

  17. Phil

    $25KP:

    Not much of note here, YRCW is deep in the money an reading $4 of $5 so may as well wait.  GMCR went the wrong way on us but no big deal – yet.  

    Butterfly Portfolio:

    • TSLA puts died on us but they were leftovers from a dismantled spread.  
    • CZR right on the button so far.  
    • DIS off to a poor start but I like the theory. 
    • TWTR big help falling back to our expected range (still a bit high). 
  18. Phil

    Income Portfolio:

    • AAPL – We neglected to add a long bull call spread to our short puts unfortunately.  Have to wait for another dip (if ever).  
    • BBY – Good target
    • CAKE – Good target
    • EBAY – Good target
    • HOV – Good target
    • DBA – On track
    • SHLD – On track 
    • RRD – Fine 
    • T – Fine
    • ABX – Up a lot on the short put, need to watch.  Stop at $1.50 (we can always re-enter).  
    • BRCM – On target
    • CLF – On target
    • FAS – Might want to sell more calls on Mon
    • LULU – Poor star but fine 
    • SLW – On Track 

    Well, that was a dull review (as it should be!).  

  19. Phil

    Sony Looks To The Past To Move Forward
    http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/07/sony-looks-to-the-past-to-move-foward/

  20. Phil

    Shop on Amazon by Taking Pictures of Items with New “Flow” App: Big Deal or Not?
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/shop-on-amazon-by-taking-pictures-of.html

  21. Phil

    Zipcar, Uber And The Beginning Of Trouble For The Auto Industry
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/02/08/viral-marketing-car-sharing-apps-are-beginning-to-infect-auto-sales/

  22. Phil

    US economy may be stuck in slow lane for long run
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/us-economy-may-be-stuck-slow-lane-long-run

  23. Phil

    The World Meets The New Chairwoman Of Monetary Policy This Week — Here’s Your Complete Preview
    http://www.businessinsider.com/monday-scouting-report-feb-10-2014-2014-2

  24. Phil

    Supplement Alert: Antioxidants May Protect Cancer Cells Instead Of Protecting Us From Them
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2014/02/08/supplement-alert-antioxidants-may-protect-cancer-cells-instead-of-protecting-us-from-them/

  25. Phil

    Big Chinese Internet Companies Are Competing Head On Against Chinese Banks
    http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-banks-battle-internet-financial-cos-2014-2

  26. Phil

    Independent News Station, Feeling Kremlin’s Wrath, Asks ‘Why?’
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/10/world/europe/independent-news-station-feeling-kremlins-wrath-asks-why.html

  27. Phil

    Video: Kids react to interracial Cheerios commercial
    http://wtkr.com/2013/07/16/video-kids-react-to-interracial-cheerios-commercial/

  28. Phil

    Workers threaten strike at World Cup stadium
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/workers-threaten-strike-world-cup-stadium

  29. Phil

    Russian Authorities Say Bitcoin Is Illegal
    http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-authorities-say-bitcoin-is-illegal-2014-2

  30. Phil

    Here’s How Much It Would Have Cost To Build An iPhone In 1991
    http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-35-million-1991-2014-2

  31. Phil

    Ominous Looking Picture in Healthcare and Education Jobs
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/ominous-trends-in-healthcare-and.html

  32. Phil

    Shared by Mark Cuban on Twitter
    http://twitter.com/WSJGraphics/status/431834960719540224/photo/1

  33. Phil

    Additional Thoughts on The Fed Model and Profit Margins
    http://contrarianedge.com/2014/02/07/additional-thoughts-on-fed-model-and-profit-margins/

  34. Phil

    Why it’s about tablets and not smartphone growth
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101393345

  35. Phil

    Paul Singer’s “Vision” Of The Coming “Riot Point” And The Fed’s “Formula For Destruction” | Zero Hedge
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-02/paul-singers-vision-coming-riot-point-and-feds-formula-destruction

  36. Phil

    ‘Dumb Starbucks’ Serves Up Piping Hot Mystery in L.A.
    http://mashable.com/2014/02/09/dumb-starbucks/

  37. Phil

    Venice is safe, but a dearth of demand has Europe sinking
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/09/dearth-demand-europe-sinking-venice

  38. Phil

    McDonald’s Is About To Open Its First Restaurant In Vietnam
    http://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-opens-in-vietnam-2014-2

  39. Phil

    This lawsuit threatens to end Walmart’s exploitative ways
    http://qz.com/175081/this-lawsuit-threatens-to-end-walmarts-exploitative-ways/

  40. Phil

    Why We Need to Look at More Than Job Growth to Get a Real Sense of the Economy
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/why-we-need-to-look-at-more-than-job-growth-to-get-a-real-sense-of-the-economy-20140207

  41. Phil

    Why Coca-Cola invested in Keurig
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/06/why-coca-cola-invested-in-keurig/

  42. Phil

    How Puerto Rico got into this economic mess you keep hearing about
    http://qz.com/174058/how-puerto-rico-got-into-this-economic-mess-you-keep-hearing-about/

  43. Phil

    The Two Biggest Casino Billionaire CEOs Are Betting Against Internet Gambling
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/02/03/the-two-biggest-casino-billionaire-ceos-are-betting-against-internet-gambling/

  44. Phil

    Arrrgh!   I just lost the whole morning's work!  I was on a roll and hadn't saved so my fault.

    Anyway, nothing unexpected, we barely made the strong bounce lines and, now that real trading is resumed, we're seeing some pullback in the Futures.  It's Monday and we prefer to just watch Monday's and let them happen and we're short anyway so I'm going to be looking for long covers, like our SSO spread, above our strong bounce lines.

    Our conviction short on oil still stands (now $99.41, so congrats to those with conviction as this is our best case) and gasoline is a good bet to follow lower, below the $2.75 line with a tight stop there.  

  45. Phil

    By the way, my intention is to do a STP review during market hours today.  I decided there wasn't much point to writing one up when we didn't know if the strong bounce lines would hold today (really no point until tomorrow, actually – when things get real again).  

  46. 8800

    Phil,

    Strategy ques on CHL: I have some 1/15 short 45 p @ 3.23 (now 3). Looks to be some support @ 47ish w CHL close @ 47.33 and looking weak today. Given that the I phone subsidies may temporarily depress earnings, would you :

    (1) roll the 45s down and out (1/16 40s),

    (2) sell some Mar 50 calls (.50) to start or

    (3) just stay the course with the short 1/15 45p?

    Thanks in advance

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