Comment by Phil

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Phil
September 12th, 2014 at 6:49 am

Good morning!  

Futures are flat but look down on TOS because they rolled the contracts.   No problem unless you held things overnight and, if so, time to get out and move to new contracts – it's way too confusing to track the old and new for a week.  

That's giving us 16,961 on /YM, 1,997 on /ES, 4,084 on /NQ and 1,169.3 on /TF.  /NKD is still 15,885 and the /NKDU4 contract should have stopped out anyway as we dipped to 15,820 (+$400 at 10:30pm) before bouncing back to 15,920 this morning.

So, no change of lines, Dow is most affected but it's always the flakiest index anyway – the others are pretty much back where they were so no need to change our lines but we'll keep in mind the Dow Futures have little upside resistance for the next 150 points.  

I know it must get boring hearing Dave and I bitch about the quality of the rallies and the manipulated closes but that is what's happening – we're like weathermen in San Diego – pretty much the same report every day…  One day something might happen, maybe.

The S&P is down 10 for the week (0.5%) so that's the magic number today to keep the weekly chart from looking ugly but really 2,000 is the key – they really don't want to close lower than that for psychological reasons.  We have still NEVER had an entire day over 2,000 – not one! 

Last Friday though, we closed at 2,007.71 after opening at 1,998 and falling to 1,990.10 so strap in for a possible wild ride again today which, like last week – we'd do best to ignore for the most part. 

The Dow is double plus unpretty but, (Maya), it's not a Spitting Cobra pattern yet, those are a bit more jagged but another fake run up to 17,150 that quickly fails would do it!  The weekly S&P chart above has more of that look – the sort of coiling action at the top, ready to strike.

Speaking of 17,150 – a fall to 17,000 is 150 points so the 40% Strong Bounce is 60 points to 17,060.  If the Dow has trouble at that line – that's going to be a big sign of weakness and it shouldn't have trouble at 17,175 either (50%) if it's really going to rally back.  

Asia didn't do much, kind of mixed but Shanghai put up 0.8% gains.  Hang Seng is at 24,595, still down 400 from 25K to finish the week on a down note.  

Asia Less Vulnerable to Taper Tantrum, But Risks Remain


Goldman Sachs says emerging markets are better prepared than last year to handle the impact of Fed monetary policy tightening.

• Japan Exodus Swamps the Yen
  

  Japanese investors are seeking higher yields and stronger currencies overseas, helping to drive the yen to a six-year low.

  • Kuroda: Central Bank Won't Hesitate

• Tokyo Shares Continue Rise
  

  Stocks in Japan continued to push higher with the dollar's rise, but Hong Kong fell amid uncertainties over China's economic growth and monetary policy outlook.

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  A rallying U.S. dollar is fueling expectations in Asia that gold prices, already at their lowest in more than seven months, have further to fall, offsetting the expected rise in demand from year-end festivities in China and Indian weddings. 17 min ago

• Moment of Truth for Hong Kong Protest Group
  

  An Aug. 31 decision in Beijing was the prompt for Occupy Central to launch promised mass sit-ins. For a movement inclined to deliberate, the need to follow talk with action is now sinking in. 5:27 AM

  • Heard in HK: Occupy Central
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China Credit Gauge Misses Estimates as Growth Risks Escalate

Europe is also mixed this morning but generally selling down into lunch so far.  Another thing the US Media is purposely ignoring is the 12.5% correction in Europe (example on Germany chart) since July that, so far, has bounced weakly (4-point drop on EWG has weak bounce at 28.8 and strong at 29.6) – failing exactly at the weak bounce line (the top blue line on Dave's chart).  

I know the narrative from the MSM is to ignore the rest of the World and I hate to sound like a broken record but that's exactly what they told us while we were "rallying" in 2008 – just sayin'….

Of course, in 2008, we weren't almost at war with Russia and there wasn't a massive terrorist takeover of Iraq and Syria and Spain wasn't about to burst into civil war and Ireland wasn't breaking out of the UK and Italy wasn't teetering on Depression with the rest of Europe clearly in Recession and all with twice as much debt than they had at the time so yes, this time is different – it's MUCH WORSE!!!  

Germany Bans Islamic State


Germany confirmed Friday it is banning the Islamic State militant group after it was found that hundreds of German nationals and residents had traveled to Syria and Iraq to support the radical faction.

Germany Sees Rising Anti-Semitism Among Muslims


Authorities have largely succeeded in banning anti-Semitic speech from the public domain, but community activists say the focus on the far-right has left prejudice in Muslim communities unchecked.

ECB's Noyer: Euro Still Too Strong

• Eurgroup Doesn't Condemn France on Budget
  

  Eurozone finance ministers didn't immediately condemn France for missing its budget targets, saying they await an evaluation of Paris's budget proposals by the European Commission.

France Imported German Wheat After Poor Harvest


French buyers have been forced to purchase wheat from Germany after excessive rain ruined the quality of French grain, the chief executive of German agricultural merchant BayWa said.

Scottish Leader Says U.K. Using Fear

Alex Salmond said the U.K. government was using intimidation tactics to persuade Scots to vote against independence by greatly exaggerating the financial risks.

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Foul-smelling gases from a volcanic eruption in Iceland are pestering the region, reaching Norway and Finland more than a thousand kilometers away.

International Energy Agency notes ‘remarkable’ oil demand growth fall. The world’s appetite for crude oil slowed at a “remarkable” pace during the second quarter because of weak economic growth in Europe and China, prompting the International Energy Agency to revise lower its demand forecasts for 2014 and 2015.

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