Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Manchurian Monday – $194,000,000,000 More Stimulus from China!

AND IT'S NOT HELPING! 

Is what I would have said if I had more room in the headline.  More monetary stimulus is not the answer to every Economic ill – especially in China where even infrastructure spending is failing them.  Why?  Because they tried to rush their economy from the early 19th (farming) to 21st (tech) Century without stopping to build a middle class that may demand the products they hope to build their economy on.  

China had their industrial revolution about 20 years ago – ours lasted from 1900 to 1960 and then we busted in the 70s and converted our economy in the 80s and 90s to a tech-driven one.  There was an economic hiccup in the 1930s, of course, but that happened because too much easy money given to Corporations and the Investing Class led to massive wealth disparity while the previous farming economy crumbled leading once-comfortable people into abject poverty while the top 1% popped champagne on their yachts – until the bubble burst and they all drowned together.  

Oct business cycle: support for stocksWell, thank goodness we've learned that lesson, right?  NO – not right at all!  We are idiots and we are making the same exact mistakes that led to the Great Depression and applying the same fixes that led to the Great Depression.  This is INSANE!!!  

These are normal business cycles and you can't wish them away and you can't paper over them.  All these so-called "stimulus" programs do is enrich the Top 1% on the backs of the Bottom 99% and push off the pain (eventual austerity or debt default) to a time AFTER the Top 1% have had a chance to pull out and move on to greener pastures.  

Take oil, for example, after getting a black eye on last week's sudden surge, we have recovered very nicely by sticking to our fundamental guns and shorting oil at the $58 line with a bit of conviction.  That's given our Members two excellent wins in the last two days of $1,000 per contract on Friday and another $1,500 today.  My comment to our Members on Friday morning in our Live Chat Room was very straightforward:

Oil back to $57.90 now (good short below $58 with tight stops above) – relentless pumping.  TOS has now made /CLM5 the front-month but /CLK5 is still trading and should trade until Tues.   It's now $56.44 so the gap is still huge for rolling over (we were seeing 0.15 in the fall).  

And the day before I said:

For /CLM5, we topped out at $57.92 but 5% over $55 is $57.75, so we'll call that the top and that's $2.75 so 20% of that run is 0.55 which makes a weak pullback $57.20 and a strong one $56.65, which is exactly the line that held up this morning.  If $56.65 breaks, the next test is the 50% line at $56.20 but I'm hoping for a drop all the way back to $55 as nothing has fundamentally changed since we went short on Tuesday.

And THAT is why we just took the money and ran on the test of the $56.50 line – it's a line we've been watching since last week where we EXPECTED oil to pull back to, per our fabulous 5% Rule™.  You can see how $57.75 began to become overhead resistance on oil and that indicated we were good for another leg down this morning – all the way to our next target at $56.65.  That failed briefly but, if it fails again – we could see a very nice dip back to $55 or lower.  

As I noted in our Weekend Portfolio Review, we took our USO long money off the table as we ran up to our predicted top at $58 and that left us with just our Futures shorts for the bonus money.  We don't count our Futures trading in our portfolios – those are just for stock and option trades, the Futures trades are more like side bets the more advanced traders learn how to make to fine-tune their control of the market.  

We discussed some Futures trading techniques, as we often do, in last week's Webinar, which was free to the general public (replay available here).  There's nothing special going on here, these wild gyrations in oil prices happen almost every month and we generally try to take advantage of them since we understand how the NYMEX game is played (ie. "fixed") and we're able to play alongside the manipulators (as also discussed in the Webinar last week). In fact, in the Webinar (17:30 in), I actually said: 

You just have to accept it (the manipulation) and trade it because, God bless it, we make a fortune trading it that way.  It is a complete and utter scam, so don't try to apply logic to it, there's no logic to it – other than understanding it's a rigged game and they are going to try to artificially manipulate it up and artificially manipulate it down.  

But then, the reality is, they can only affect it so much before it becomes SO obvious that it's wrong, that it goes the other way…    Every month it pushes up during the last 10 days of the contract and every month there's a huge sell-off within the last 10 days and everyone is surprised EVERY TIME – it's the most amazing thing in the World!  

Within 3 to 5 days from now (Tuesday afternoon), oil is suddenly going to go down about $2 and everybody is going to say "Wow, who would have seen that coming?"  

Who indeed…

USO WEEKLYThe CLM5 contract (June) that we've been trading, was at $53.74 on Tuesday, so $58 was quite a move, which is why we cashed out our USO longs on the 5% move up ($20).  Then we used our 5% Rule™ to discover where the retrace points would be and we played for the pullback.  Now we're at our anticipated pullback line and we'll have to play it by ear in today's chat but I still think we have one more big push lower – hopefully back to the $55 line, where we can go long on USO again! 

See how easy that is?  

It's not a big data week but we will have lots of earnings, including: HAS, IBM, CS, DFS, KO, SLM, MSFT, SBUX, AAL, INFY, SPG and STT – so tons of fun ahead.  Meanwhile, we remain 90% in cash in our Member Portfolios and looking for bargains during earnings season but we're also watching China closely, as $194Bn may not be enough to stop the slide.  

Embedded image permalink

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Phil/Manchurian,

    Good morning.

    Liked the title! reminded of the machurian dish that I always ate back home.

    Regards


  2. Good Morning!


  3. Good morning – Here we go ingot oil expiration


  4. Good morning! 

    The liberal Center for Media and Democracy has dug up a financial link between conservative interest groups and the federal judge who dramatically shut down a…
    TALKINGPOINTSMEMO.COM

     

    /CLM5 is back to $57.20, which was the weak retrace line – worth another short entry with tight stops above.  


  5. Phil / USO 

    I've been watching the USO trade in the STP where you had -50 April 18 calls and on Wednesday you said

    In the STP, we'll do a similar move on our 50 USO May $15s (now $4.82) and cash those in favor of the same July $20s ($1.35) and we'll see where the short April $18s end up (now $2.75).  

    Those were never closed or rolled so shouldn't the STP be short 5000 shares of USO this morning at $18 for a loss. If so what would your next move be?


  6. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 8:40:48 AM

      Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said, “While I am relatively optimistic about the growth outlook for 2015, I also must acknowledge that there are some significant downside risks.” Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said he is relatively optimistic that a rebound in U.S. growth will support a decision to raise interest rates later this year while highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the timing of an increase.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q9ASko

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  7. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 5:00:00 AM

     Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York Director Robert Rough. Source: Naples Daily News via Bloomberg

    The leak came from the inner sanctum of Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q8WGwv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  8. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:36:17 AM

    The Ibovespa rose for the first time in three days as Chinese stimulus measures fueled optimism that Brazil’s exporters will benefit from growth in the nation’s biggest trading partner.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q9LWy5

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  9. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:24:58 AM

    Norway’s sovereign-wealth fund made its biggest real estate investment yet, teaming up with Prologis Inc. to buy warehouse properties in 17 U.S. states for $5.9 billion.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q9JAiA

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  10. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:00:00 AM

    Five years after giving his name to a rule designed to restrict trading by Wall Street banks, Paul Volcker is pushing for another change that would put at least one top regulator out of business.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q9Ewe1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  11. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:19:36 AM

    Brazil’s shorter-term swap rates climbed to their highest levels in April after a faster inflation forecast from economists added to speculation that the central bank will raise borrowing costs by another half-percentage point.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Q9IcMO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  12. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:00:00 AM

    Mario Draghi said the “extraordinary” range of European Central Bank policy actions will facilitate a pickup in euro-area economic growth and inflation.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JmbeUq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  13. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 8:43:17 AM

    Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. shares dropped as much as 7.9 percent in early trading after the cruise line cut its annual profit forecast, blaming fuel prices and the stronger dollar.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jm8wyf

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  14. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 8:30:00 AM

    Jonathan Litt, who’s pushing MGM Resorts International to put its properties into a real estate investment trust, stepped up his criticism of the casino company and accused a director of retaliating against one of his board nominees.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jm792g

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  15. JUNO - 

           Lock-ups on three biotech companies will expire later this quarter and an analyst warned that their shares could then lag the market.

    Cantor Fitzgerald's Mara Goldstein said that following lockup expirations, companies in the sector on average underperform the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index by about 25 percent in the ensuing 30 days.

    Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: XENE)'s lock-up on nearly 62 percent of its shares outstanding expires May 3. The company went public in November and its shares have since gained about 62 percent.

    Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: JUNO) will see a lock-up on 85 percent of its shares outstanding expire June 16. The company's shares have gained about 84 percent since its initial public offering in December.

    Cellectis SA (ADR) (NASDAQ: CLLS)'s lock-up on 36 percent of its shares outstanding expires June 22. Its shares are off about 18 percent since its March 26 IPO.     


  16. IBM strong ahead of earnings tonight.


  17. Wow !  Big spike in oil.


  18. /CL- So much for my early gains as they have manipulated it back over $58. Unbelievable, Well I am looking for a drop at some point today or tomorrow, but how high will they take it to mess with me and you? If their is some news driving oil higher please let me know before I go in further.


  19. Yeah, what's up with oil???


  20. Dip buyers came right back in on schedule.


  21. Above comment should be "if there is some news driving oil higher" 


  22. Back at home.  SCO/ I bought some May 80 calls, really just a small addon to the conviction (maybe questionable today) that we're near the top of a range…But only a couple, only with some cash I thought was gone.


  23. Well, that first oil short didn't work – now $57.65. We have to be patient and see if we get another crack at $58 (though $57.75 is the 5% line off $55 but it's been overshot consistently) or if $57.75 finally acts like resistance, which it should if oil is weakening.  

    Manchurian/Pat – Pinyin buns, yum! 

    USO/DRD – No, of course we closed the short calls on Friday and we covered in May with the short $19 calls, same as the LTP and $25KP as noted on 4/15:

    I figured out an exit for USO in the $25KP:  First we have to buy 10 July $20s for $1.35 (because we can't have uncovered calls) and then we can sell our 10 April $17 calls ($2.75) and we'll see how the short $19 calls (.77) hold up and roll them if we have to (the May $20s are 0.77).  

    In the STP, we'll do a similar move on our 50 USO May $15s (now $4.82) and cash those in favor of the same July $20s ($1.35) and we'll see where the short April $18s end up (now $2.75).  

    In the LTP, we have 50 long USO 2017 $18s so let's sell 25 May $19s for $1.30.  

    If we had been short 5,000 shares at $18, I sure as Hell would have stopped them out this morning at the same time we stopped out our short oil contracts ($19.45 on USO).  As we said last week when we finally got a $500 correction off of $58, you have to consider yourself LUCKY to make even a partial recovery after a big move against you.  As I said at the time – 4 more moves like that and I was going to be even – we got even luckier than that since…

    Speaking of lukcy, /CLM5 just peaked all the way back at the last peak ($58.45) and I still like poking at the shorts, this time with a bit more conviction (stop over $58.55).

    JUNO/Dave – That's an interesting one as you'd think people would be looking to take some off the table.

     

    IBM/Albo – Way too cheap in the low $160s.  

    Gains/Craigs – They are not gains until you take them off the table!  Not only am I not seeing good news for oil but I'm seeing this:

    Of course the report is from the 16th, so already baked in.  

    Falling oil prices and a surging dollar “create winners and losers”, says the .

    Oil Slips On Saudi Record Production Promise, Specs Pile In But Blackstone Skeptical

    SCO/Rexx – As I said last week, after this rollover dip (unless it's already done), I'm generally bullish on oil between now and July.  I just think it's a bit overheated near $60 this soon but I don't think I'll be doing much betting against it through the summer.  


  24. Shorted CLM at 58.20.  Close stop.


  25. Phil

    Good morning!

    I wish I had the time to follow you into even 10% of the trades!

    Simply fantastic! The The LTP and the STP gains.

    Question: NFLX. Do you feel comfortable shorting here?

    My thought was to short the May 575's ( if it continues to remain below $570 today in an upmarket as 570 may be a short term top)

    However, I need your help in finding a long cover, into 2016 or 2017 as a protection against insanity (MORE insanity)

    What would you suggest?


  26. Out.


  27. XOM and CVX up $3.60 between them, that's 30 Dow points.  BA up 3 for 24, IBM up 4 for 32 and MMM up $3 for 24 more is half the Dow's gains on 5 companies.  Russell only up 0.5% as is NYSE.  Nas happy and up 1% with the Dow and S&P splitting the difference at 0.75.

    I was going to talk about bounce lines but we already hit them so it will be bullish if things hold up.  Strictly speaking we should be looking at:

    Dow 18,100 to 17,700 is 400 (2.2%) so 80-point retraces to 17,780 and 17,860 (strong).  We blew past that. 

    S&P 2,105 to 2,065 is 40 and that's 8-point bounces to 2,073 and 2,080 (strong, rounding) and also blown past. 

     Nasdaq 4,425 to 4,325  is 100 so 4,345 and 4,365 (strong) would be the marks.  

    Russell 1,275 to 1,245 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,251 and 1,257 (strong) and it's actually not there yet, so we'd better keep a close eye on that one.  

    NYSE (no Finviz chart) topped out at 11,200 and fell to above 11,000 but let's call it 11,000 as we know that's the Must Hold line.  So that makes for 40-point bounces to 11,040 and 11,080 but we'll call it 11,100 and we're at 11,120 so watch this one closely too.  

    If ANY of our indexes fail to hold strong today – I'd consider that a bearish sign.

    Holy crap – oil just hit $58.55 but only briefly – testing our stop.  


  28. PHIL/DJIA:

    AAPL UP $2.24 TOO!


  29. Thanks Maya.  I think the thing to point out re. the LTP/STP is how many positions we don't take.  Keep in mind we really don't add all that many positions to either and, when we do, we tend to let them play out – rather than running in and out of positions over and over again.  NFLX is a good example – while very tempting, it's very dangerous and there's no compelling reason to short it now other than it's overpriced, which it always is.  If that were the only criteria, we'd short AMZN and TSLA every day too!  

    How are you going to cover a stock that goes up $150 in a month?  And that's twice this year it's done that, not once.  What on Earth makes you think that, out of 9,000 stocks to play – this is your best shorting opportunity?  You want a suggestion – move along!  

    AAPL/DC – Adds more madness to the Dow mix.  Realistically, we have XOM and CVX earnings coming up and those should not be great.  iWatch sales seem strong so a + from AAPL.  BA should be doing great so + and IBM underpriced so + there too.  Maybe we will be marching on to new highs…

    Finally we catch a break on oil ($58.26) – VERY tight stop now back at $58.45 and be very happy to make $250-500 if it comes.  


  30. Poor gold and silver not doing so hot:

    Don't blame the Dollar – not that weak at 98:


  31. It is quiet in here.  Too quiet….  Apple having a great day.  My NFLX strangle is calming down a little bit.  (I'm currently short the June 500/625 strange.  Just 2 contracts)


  32. Wow, busy with real work here but looks like the usual expiration shenanigans on oil… A real roller coaster!

    Did some more backtesting with VXX and XIV this weekend. Looks pretty promising and makes me want to only trade these guys since the are quite predictable if you are patient enough. More later I am sure.


  33. New Trade: 10 BX Jan 17, $35 puts (short) at $3.50. Net margin required $3,650; ROM=48.95% 


  34. Ethiopian wins Boston Marathon – $150k for 2 hours and 9 minutes of work


  35. BX trade…Stock price at time of trade $41.91 Breakeven $31.50.


  36. Not that it matters, but:

    Dollar's rise casts shadow on U.S. earnings

    Gundlach: Next crisis could be in high-yield

    • Nobody really talks about it much, says Jeff Gundlach, but the junk-bond market's entire life has been spent in a time of secularly declining interest rates. Exactly how with these assets react once that move ends?
    • There's no need to sell today, says Gundlach, as the crisis he envisions is at least a couple of years away, when increasing interest rates collide with a wave of maturing paper needing to be refinanced. For now, stick with the "carry trade" of owning high-yield bonds.

    Shanghai and Hong Kong post big declines after PBOC cut

    • Responding to weak Q1 economic data, the PBOC cut the required reserve ratio by 100 basis points to 18.5% over the weekend. It's the second RRR cut since November, notes BBVA, which expects a "tremendous" liquidity injection of ¥1.35T into the financial sector.
    • The team also takes note of the 100 basis point cut vs. the PBOC's typically moving in 50 basis point increments. Expect more easing, says BBVA – mainly in interest rates which could see 75 basis points in cuts in coming months.
    • Shanghai fell 1.6% overnight, with the Hang Seng lower by 2%.
    • Research firm Global Blue says Chinese tourists increased their luxury spending by 67%in Q1.
    • High-end retailers with stores in Europe received a good portion of the sales after a weak euro attracted tourists to buy in the region over Hong Kong.
    • Last year, Chinese tourists increased spending by 18%.
    • A reselling trend in China has accounted for some of the brisk growth, while also pressuring prices for luxury brands in China.
    • Luxury retailers: Gucci (OTC:PPRUFOTCPK:PPRUY), Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMUY), Coach (NYSE:COH), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS), Burberry (OTCPK:BURBY), Tiffany (NYSE:TIF), LVMH (OTCPK:LVMHFOTCPK:LVMUY), Richemont (OTCPK:CFRUYOTCPK:CFRHF), Remy Cointreau (OTCPK:REMYF,OTCPK:REMYY)

    Trading boosts Morgan Stanley results, but wealth management disappoints

    • While Evercore ISI's Glenn Schorr calls Morgan Stanley's (MS +1.2%) Q1 results a "Bo Derek" – otherwise known as a "10" – JMP's Devin Ryan is somewhat more measured.
    • After stripping out a sizable tax benefit, "core" EPS still beat estimates, but not by nearly as gaudy an amount as the headlines suggest. The outperformance – however – was driven by FICC action, and one wonders how sustainable that is. Wealth Management revenues, on the other hand, were 3% less than what Ryan had modeled.
    • "We suspect investors will initially view results favorably, but given the trading-heavy outperformance, we believe the focus will also be on sustainability, which could temper the upside."
    • Speaking on the earnings call, Google-bound CFO Ruth Porat – applauding some of the regulatory measures aimed at banks since the crisis - calls for a "time out" to "pause, digest, and assess" what's working and what's not.
    • Previously: Morgan Stanley +2% after strong Q1. (April 20)

    Industrial REITs on the move after Prologis purchase

    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR -14.9%) discloses it was unable to reach an agreement with a group of bank lenders over debt restructuring terms.
    • Talks between one of the company's units and the group of bankers have ceased for the time being.
    • SEC Form 8-K
    • MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGMreleases an investor presentation in front of its annual meeting scheduled for May 28.
    • The bulk of the material from the company defends the directors being targeted for replacement by Land & Buildings.
    • MGM also claims L&B makes "unsubstantiated" cash flow assumptions in deriving its rosy REIT projections.
    • MGM development schedule update: MGM Cotai (opening Fall 2016), MGM National Harbor (opening 2H 2016), MGM Springfield (opening 2H 2017), also pursuing opportunities in South Korea and Japan.
    • MGM Investor Presentation (.pdf)

     

    • Oil prices eased from early highs this morning after Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said production in the world's biggest crude exporter would stay near record peaks of around 10M bpd in April.
    • "I have said many times we will always be happy to supply to our customers with what they want. Now they want 10 million," Naimi told Reuters.

     

    • Chevron (CVX +2.1%) will go head-to-head in a U.S. appeals court starting today against Stephen Donziger, the lawyer who has tried for years to get the company to pay a $9.5B environmental damage award.
    • The appeal is another twist in a complex legal battle that has played out for decades across countries and continents, with the latest twist coming last year when a U.S. district judge overturn the decision of an Ecuador court upon finding that the $9.5B award against CVX was bsed on corruption and misconduct by Donziger.
    • A win for CVX would support the company’s efforts to shield its assets from seizure, including in foreign jurisdictions outside the U.S., and potentially set a framework for how multinational companies can use RICO in battling similar lawsuits in the future.

     

    • Encana (ECA +3.1%) is seeking buyers for its natural gas properties in Louisiana as it focuses on drilling for oil and other liquids in Texas and Canada, Bloomberg reports.
    • Citigroup is said to be soliciting offers from P-E firms, energy explorers and other potential buyers for ECA's Haynesville Shale basin acreage, which is valued at as much as $1B; ECA holds more than 350K acres in the area.
    • Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) +0.2% premarket after reporting better than expected Q1 results amid an "unprecedented decline in drilling activity… which drove pricing pressure and margin compression across all product lines."
    • Q1 results were helped by higher revenue and operating income from Latin America, the Middle East and Asia, but revenue and profit from all other regions fell due to the global slump in oil prices; North America revenue declined 9% Y/Y and operating income slumped 54%, as HAL says activity has been cut in half from the November peak "expect(s) to continue to see pricing pressure for our services until the rig count stabilizes."
    • Q1 results included $823M, or $0.97/share, in writedowns, writeoffs and severance charges, among other items.
    • Completion and production revenue fell 4% to $4.2B because of steep rig count declines and price discounts for well completion services in North America; drilling and evaluation revenue also fell 4% to $2.8B mostly due to decreased drilling activity and fluid services in the U.S. land market.
    • Marathon Oil (MRO +2.3%) is upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $37 price target, raised from $25, at Morgan Stanley, as shares currently trade at a discount to peers despite the company's above average production.
    • MRO has significantly lagged in the 2015 recovery in the E&P segment, and the firm says its discounted valuation has been traditionally justified by the company's shorter than peer inventory life, but the oil price driven pullback in activity has narrowed the gap.
    • Stanley says MRO's downspacing efforts and enhanced completion are expected to provide a steady stream of catalysts in the near to medium term, leading to an increased NAV of $56/share.

    Report: EU prepares to file antitrust charges against Gazprom

    • The European Union’s competition regulator reportedly plans to file formal antitrust charges against Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) this Wednesday, a step sure to escalate tensions between Europe and Russia.
    • Sources familiar with Gazprom say the company had signaled its willingness to settle the case to the commission as recently as last week, after formal settlement talks broke down last year after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine.
    • The European Commission started a formal investigation into Gazprom’s business practices in some eastern and southern European countries in 2012, saying it suspected the company of abusing its dominant position in those countries’ natural gas supply.

    Cruise line stocks waver on profit concerns

    Mylan says rumored Teva marriage would not makes sense

    • Generics firm Mylan (MYL -2.9%) admits that it considered a merger with Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries (TEVA -1.4%) but such a deal would be "without sound industrial logic." CEO Robert Coury says, "We believe that it is unlikely that any such combination could obtain antitrust regulatory clearances. Mylan is fully committed to its stand-alone strategy, including its proposal to acquire Perrigo, and today's speculation has no impact whatsoever on this strategy."
    • Many observers believe that Mylan's unsolicited $29B bid for Perrigo (PRGO -0.7%) was a defensive tactic to make itself less attractive to Teva.
    • Teva has not disclosed its intentions as of yet.
    • Previously: Teva reportedly weighing bid for Mylan; shares jump (April 17)
    • The FDA approves the 4 French 1.25 (mm) Solid Diamondback 360 Peripheral Orbital Atherectomy System (OAS) developed by Cardiovascular Systems (CSII +0.9%) for the treatment of peripheral artery disease (PAD). The smaller access sheath of the interventional vascular device enables quicker patient recovery and fewer procedural complications from bleeding.
    • PAD, affecting ~18M Americans, is caused by plaque accumulation in peripheral arteries, typically pelvis or leg, that reduces blood flow. If untreated, it can lead to severe pain, immobility, non-healing wounds and the potential for limb amputation. The incidence of PAD is growing at a double-digit rate due to the rise of diabetes and obesity. About 25% of PAD cases progress to critical limb ischemia (CLI) which is characterized by complex occlusions in the tibial arteries that supply blood flow to the feet and lower legs. About 20% of CLI cases cannot be treated by percutaneous coronary intervention via traditional access through the femoral artery. Newer systems, like the 1.25 Diamondback, offer physicians alternative access through the arteries in the foot or ankle.

    Every day now: Taser rallies following Ontario weapon orders

    • Ontario's provincial police have placed orders to buy 1K Taser (TASR +2.7%) X2 smart weapons. The orders were received in Q1, and expected to be shipped in 1H15.
    • Shares are once more near a 10-year high of $29.65 (set last week). The all-time high (set in Dec. 2004) is $33.65. Q1 results are due on April 30.
    • Last Friday: Taser higher on report of major London body camera order

    IBM up 2.4% ahead of earnings; Barron's makes bull case

    • IBM is posting solid gains ahead of this afternoon's Q1 report. 2M shares have been traded thus far vs. a 3-month daily average of 4.6M. The S&P is up 1%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
    • A positive weekend column from Barron's'  Vito Racanelli might be helping Big Blue's cause. Racanelli: "Expectations and sentiment for the Armonk, N.Y.-based tech giant seem so low now that it’s time to take a second look … Like a supertanker, IBM takes a while to change direction but there’s identifiable change coming."
    • He takes issue with the image of IBM as a tech dinosaur that has missed out on the cloud services boom, and observes its cloud revenue grew 60% in 2014 to $7B. Worth noting: IBM's definition of "cloud revenue" also covers ancillary products/services. Its "cloud delivered as a service" revenue totaled $3B in 2014, and was on a $3.5B/year run rate at year's end.
    • Racanelli also highlights IBM's 2.7% dividend yield, low multiples, investments in other growth markets, and passes on upbeat remarks from two fund managers, one of whom sees the company benefiting from a server upgrade cycle – the System z mainframe line was recently refreshed.
    • Last week, Credit Suisse (a long-time bear) forecast a slight Q1 miss thanks to forex pressures, and also voiced concerns about order/deal softness, internal turmoil/underinvestment, and the margin impact of a shift towards cloud revenue streams.
    • IBM is up 6% since providing mixed Q4 results and light 2015 guidance on Jan. 20.

    Bloomberg: Google had $6B deal to buy Tesla in 2013

    • What could have been: With Tesla (TSLA -0.5%) in dire straits in March 2013 as the company struggled to fix Model S bugs and convert pre-orders into actual sales, Elon Musk reached out to Larry Page and "proposed that Google (GOOG +1.6%) buy Tesla outright," Bloomberg's Ashlee Vance reports through an excerpt from a Musk book due out on May 19.
    • Vance adds Tesla would've cost Google $6B at the time after factoring "a healthy premium" – Tesla's market cap is currently $25.9B. As part of the deal, Musk wanted Google to promise to invest $5B in factory expansions and let Musk run Tesla for 8 years, until it was ready to launch a mass-market car.
    • While "Musk, Page, and Google’s lawyers negotiated the specific terms of the deal" in the following weeks, Tesla's Model S sales began to take off, and the company posted its first profit and repaid its DOE loan. No longer needing a white knight, Musk broke off talks.
    • A $6B Tesla acquisition would've been one of Google's largest, surpassed in size only by Motorola Mobility. Google, of course, has kept pushing ahead with its self-driving car efforts since 2013; the company has said it's talking with GM, Ford, Toyota, and others about bringing a self-driving car to market by 2020. Tesla has some interest in this space as well.
    • Last year, the San Francisco Chronicle reported Musk met with Apple M&A execs in 2013. Apple's reported car efforts have fueled fresh speculation the company will make a bid for Tesla.

    Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces The 80-20 Rule


  37. IHS BX think they to high to sell puts at this time Sold the May 42 caller for .50


  38. Quiet/Palotay – I think most people went to cash and are having a relaxing time.  AAPL up 2.5% now at $127.85, should be about enough for the day.  

    VIX/StJ – Right back to 12.87 from 15 – amazing.  

    BX/IHS – Up with the sector today but not too cheap.

    Marathon/BDC – That plus years of training. 

    Oil back to $58 and /CLK5 at $56.50 – still an ugly $1.50 cost to roll.  


  39. Thinking my 590s on NFLX are safe.  The froth has finally come to an end for now.


  40. GOGO/  Yesterday my flight on Jet Blue had free wifi. ("wi-fly"). So they must have it on some planes.  Don't know who owns it or what the business model is.  They charge for a lot of streaming but, checking email, reading low data stuff was free.


  41. Hanging in on oil 57.6 is breakeven for me. I just need to comment on Chris Christie. I have been trying to reach the NJ Division of Taxation to ask a question about a bill they sent me. The message since 7AM is "due to high call volumes, we are unable to answer your call, so please call back at another time. " I am guessing that they have simply turned off the phones because they have had budgets cut to the bone and have no one answering phones some days as they juggle personnel. This is Christie's idea of responsible government, just kill the department and fuck the people.


  42. Phil/training – like oil futures trading – a lifetime of learning to make easy money in two hours!

    DBA – buy buy buy down here! I am loving DBA on a quadruple bottom. Unless you subscribe to the wild conspiracy theory that people will actually be eating food 6 months in the future, maybe you should layoff, but I'm buying in…


  43. BDC- A bit misleading to say that the marathon winner won for 2 hrs of work. I would guess he did some training here and there to prepare and didn't just jump off the couch and win. If he did just jump off the couch, I am a contender for next year.


  44. NFLX/Rustle – Well, if they can't move up on a day like today – that's a good sign.

    GOGO/Rexx – That's why I ended up ditching them.  They just weren't getting traction over $20 and, as time goes on, there will be competing services.  One of the phone companies should realize that, if they make their service available in the air, those business travelers all have families too.  

    $57.60/Craigs – That's an excellent break-even.  Nice adjusting.  I agree on NJ.  I think that's the plan though, send out bills and see who pays just to get it off their desk.  Most companies pay things like that without even checking if they are legit.  

    Training/BDC – Very true.  True on DBA too although I see Japan already has robot receptionists that don't need to eat.  Must be Worship Your Robot Overlords month on Bloomberg. 

    Oil popping back up after a nice head-fake.  That's why we take the quick profits, folks!  

    $58.20 now.  Dollar 98.11.  Brent flat today at $23.25 but our oil up 1.5% so I'm still guessing fake move but time is running very low.  

      


  45. the #1 largest holding in IWM? 

    QRVO


  46. Good adjustments on the STP, only down to $215.835 (115.8%) on a big up move.  Fortunately, we ditched those extra TZA calls – huge difference.  Of course now I'd like to buy them back…

    LTP holding steady at 49.7%.  

    QRVO/BDC – LOL!   Such a joke…  P/E is 110 on those guys, up 250% since last year.  $2.3Bn valuation from $645M is a bit thick for the R2K.  


  47. DBA / BDC – Looks like making lower highs and lower lows now! $22 seems like the place to initiate positions, but I would love to see a break over $23 for more confidence.


  48. Phil:

    I don't see DBA in the LTP (review)?

    phil 
    April 14th, 2015 at 2:38 pm | Permalink | Tweet thisIgnore this user

    I decided to add 25 of the DBA's to the LTP.  That's selling the Jan $22 puts for $1 and buying the $21/23 bull call spread for $1 for net $0 – my favorite kind of outlay! 


  49. Quote of the day:

    "I’m of the opinion that most investors would be better off making fewer decisions and getting rid of any unnecessary clutter from their portfolios and investment process." (Ben Carlson)


  50. Clutter/stj – excellent idea. I always seem to need to do that..


  51. craig620 – a stretch to say a joke is misleading. Maybe a forum full of non-runners could actually be "misled" that the fastest marathon runner in the world "jumped off a couch." LOLZ.

    For what it's worth I run every single day of my life and 245 people beat me the last time I ran Boston so … p = ~q does not mean ~p = q, or something like that….


  52. IBM has a new page where they use Watson to analyze your personality based on your writing:

    http://www.wallstreetrant.com/2015/04/financial-blogger-personalities.html

    The page where you have the analysis is there:

    https://watson-pi-demo.mybluemix.net/

    The article had some samples from bloggers. I tried it with Phil's post from this morning and there results are:

    You are generous, tranquil and restrained.

    You are uncompromising: you think it is wrong to take advantage of others to get ahead. You are trusting of others: you believe the best in others and trust people easily. And you are self-controlled: you have control over your desires, which are not particularly intense.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for well-being.

    You consider both independence and helping others to guide a large part of what you do. You like to set your own goals to decide how to best achieve them. And you think it is important to take care of the people around you.

    Interesting I think…. They do a full analysis with all kinds of factors, but too much to post here.


  53. artificial photosynthesis is cool. Glad to see some progress but it's still a science fair project. Nothing to invest in yet…


  54. phil/IWM – the next two biggest holdings are biotech's. Puma has gone from 12.50 to 280 in 3 years so IWM is somewhat of a "diversified lottery ticket" IMO. I just bought some VEU for a retirement portfolio on the premise that the rest of the world is at least taking some of their actual value-producing companies more seriously than we are (and couple that with a dollar that's already run makes it a better entry now than 6 months ago).


  55. Yodi: Your BX May $42 Call (short) for $.50.  Let me know how this turns out. In my short put position the margin of safety is 24+% and that is in Jan 17 with the BE at $31.50.


  56. ARP? They can hedge their fracking scam with nat. gas perhaps


  57. IHS  These plays like on BX are my so called cherry calls which are obviously covered by stock in this case or BCS.


  58. NYA leading us down again.


  59. Oil also taking a dip. Slow drip down since 11:30. We'll see if 11,100 hold on NYA.


  60. Craig/oil

    good job holding

    I got tired of getting whipped about had worked my BE to 58.10 and got out with 200.00 green


  61. GOGO – goinflight       I had a round trip TX/ NY flight on American and I noticed they jacked up the prices to $29.95 per flight or $8.50 for 30 minutes. They have gone above my price point for a 3 hour flight but I just checked online and the pricing is different if you buy the pass before you travel.  Plus, it wasn't even working on the return flight.  I asked the flight attendant and she said that in addition to not always working, the service gets really slow when there are a lot of people online.   I agree with Phil,  GOGO is not going anywhere for a while.


  62. LOCO – higher highs, stepping it's way along.  bot some Sept/Jun $30 calendars for .80.  Considering some may or June butterflies centered on 30, too.  Stop out all if underlying closes below $27


  63. Phil / St. Maarten – Had a great time but 1 week is not enough. We stayed in Simpson Bay and everything was within walking distance. Did the island tour, sunset catamaran cruise, rented a car for 3 days to explore the island. Every beach is different Orient Bay had fine white sand. Food and service is amazing on the French side and good/very good on the Dutch side. Meal prices are very reasonable and alcohol is ridiculously cheap. There are hundreds of jewelry stores on the island all selling tax/duty free. Made an expensive mistake of walking into a jewelry store with my wife. I would definitely go back to St. Maarten as we had more to see/do.

    Rexx/ St Barts  - Didn't get a chance to visit this time but will go when we go back.

    /CL  shorted earlier at 58.35 missed the first drop (forgot to take quick profits) but just covered now covered at 57.60. Jewelry partially paid for…


  64. hi phill, with uco I have short 20 jan 16  5 puts and 20 5/9 july BCS   I was thinking that with uco at 9 which seems to be the top of its range for the last 4 months… might it be worth while taking some profit and waiting to get back in if it drops…

    I was also thinking of taking some bda and selling some puts…any thoughts please

    thanks in advance for your thoughts…

    and I know this is a curve ball, but I was wondering when you might fix dates for this years conference, I live in london and would love to go as I missed last years, but need to know well inadvance to arrange time off and tickets…


  65. Nice move down to 57.34 and I got mostly out, but still hoping for another chance, however with aircraft carrier heading towards Yemen, it might be time to give up any short position. I will have to decide which way to go on that one. Fake contracts vs.military action, hmmmmm?


  66. Wheeee! again on oil!  It's like having a heart attack three or four times a day but the recovery is way more fun…  surprise

    DBA/DC – Thanks, I missed that one.  

    Carlson/StJ – Amen!   Same goes for houses, offices and staff!  

    Watson/StJ – Really, it got that off a post?  Can't say any of it isn't true but I'd like to see what it says about others.  

    Photosynthesis/BDC – If they can splice that into our cells, we solve food issues (and wreck the restaurant industry).  

    Lottery/BDC – That's what's wrong with the Russell, it's bloated by companies that have already popped – very unrealistic average.  

    Oops, looked away from oil for a few minutes and it popped 0.30 back to $57.82.   NYSE 11,115.  

    GOGO/Stock – No way I would pay that.   Seems like they are having problems getting people to use it so they are just soaking the people who have to.  

    LOCO/Scott – I don't know about them but we ate at a KONA over the weekend and it was very nice.  

    St Maarten/Verr – Yep, definitely on my summer list.  Thanks for update.  Good job making the money back, too.  

    UCO/Tri – That's a tough call because they're at $9 and we've nad no reason to change our target for July ($60) so $9 does seem right.  

    I see $4.26/1.45 on the $5/9 spread so $3 and I don't see the point in spending money to fix it and 33% left to gain (not to mention 0.35 on the short put) is nothing to sneeze at.  I'd leave it alone, though I know it's annoying to see it in the money and still have to wait 3 months. As to BDA – what???  

    As to the Live Vegas Conference, April is a bit early for a November conference but we usually do it on Veterans Day Weekend, which would be Nov 8th and 9th though it's not a real holiday.  So it would be Sat 7th for dinner and poker and then conference day's Sunday and Monday.

    If people know they are interested now, let me know as the sooner we book the better but we have, in the past, had trouble getting responses sooner than Aug.

    Yemen/Craigs – It's always something.  


  67. BDC- I knew you were kidding and so was I. That is the problem with text/email/chat, you can't see faces and body language


  68. I wanted to sell one more contract @ 57.34 and was too slow, then it popped back up while I waited for it to go back down. I hate to not make any money after a whole day of sweating, but perhaps today that is how it will have to be. I am afraid to risk a pop waiting for it to go down, with all this turmoil in the Mid East.


  69. Phil/Qcom

    You have been more a fan of Broadcom, rather than Qcom for a while.

    It is now becoming more evident, that Qcom, despite the recent dividend increase and buybacks, has done nothing as a stock. So, the 'street' is coming more in line with your thinking.

    My question: what did you know or glean from available info to arrive at your position, apparently, at least 6-12 months ago? Maybe, you have never been a Qcom fan, but I have only seen comments on it from you the past few months.


  70. So, I'll be needing a pop in silver tonight! In there at 15.92 and will make lots if we get back over 16.


  71. Phil RE: UCO above.

    I have 10 of the Jul 5/14 UCO BCS in in an IRA  Originally in for $2.00 now 4.3/ .15. If your thinking is $9 is about right for July, my thinking is that I should close this now.  Do you agree?

     

    THX


  72. QCOM/Maya – There's nothing wrong with QCOM other than their size relative to the size of the space.   QCOM has a $112Bn market cap while BRCM has a $26Bn market cap.  BRCM and QCOM compete for the same clients but when QCOM steals a $120M order from BRCM, it bumps their net by 0.1% while when BRCM steals a $120M order from QCOM, it bumps them 0.5%.  That makes it pretty easy for BRCM to be more impressive than QCOM.  

    Being smaller makes them more nimble too.  Recently I liked that BRCM built secure MCUs (micro-controller units) with NFC radios built-in.  Those are used in POS terminals like the ones IPhones will be making more popular (see how all these things come together?) in addition to all those "Internet of Things" things.  

    Submitted on 2015/03/09 at 9:58 pm

    QCOM/Batman – You're new so I'll spare you my usual "why would you buy QCOM when BRCM is out there?" speech.  

    To me, spending $10Bn to buy back 10% of the company in a single year and push out another $3Bn in dividends is like a big neon sign that says "We're out of ideas and we're gonna milk this puppy now."  At least QCOM has the cash and they can afford to do it and buying back 10% of their stock will boost earnings 10% so if they were flatlining at $70, now they should flatline at $80 so sure, your spread makes sense, but I still bet BRCM (now $44.50) outperforms over the rest of the year.  

    QCOM/Batman – Turns out it's $15Bn in buybacks!  As to BRCM, they tore the cover off the ball in Q4, earning 0.90 per $40 share (at the time).  That puts them on pace for a p/e of 15 at $45 ($3+/share), which is ridiculously low for a company that's growing revenue over 10% and investing in new products for the next cycle.  The "Internet of things" can be explosive for them as more and more devices get connected and that's right where they are focused.  You seem to focus on whether or not QCOM has technical superiority in this or that but BRCM doesn't need to be better because QCOM is 5x their size and BRCM just has to make good headway and find their niches while QCOM has to grow their #1 spot to succeed.  

    And now BRCM is at $42.15 (down 5%) and QCOM is at $67.16 (down 6.7%) and you STILL would rather buy QCOM?  I don't know what you want me to say?  Clearly you want me to bless QCOM but nothing has changed – they have been tested in a crash and performed worse than BRCM and my overall logic still stands that BRCM is better-placed to succeed than QCOM.  

    Also, I don't see support, I see QCOM failed the 50 dma at $70 and dropped a very quick $4 (5.7%) from there and is in a long-term descending pattern that was only interrupted by their decision to spend all their cash to buy back their own stock because they can't think of anything else to do with it and, if it falls any further – people will start getting fired.  This is not an "investment" you'll be getting me to change my mind on until they are down in the $50s – maybe.  

    Not to mention we're possibly in the middle of a market correction so what a silly time to buy a weak stock!  

    Silver/Craigs – Don't forget Greece may fall down and go BOOM!  Then the metals market will drop to new lows as the Dollar spikes over 100 and the Euro tests $1.00.

    UCO/Gerry – In your case, since you don't have to pay the short caller much, not bad taking $4.15 off the table.  I would.  


  73. Watson / Phil – Results from Friday's column:

    You are heartfelt.

    You are empathetic: you feel what others feel and are compassionate towards them. You are calm-seeking: you prefer activities that are quiet, calm, and safe. And you are self-assured: you tend to feel calm and self-assured.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for stability.

    You are relatively unconcerned with tradition: you care more about making your own path than following what others have done. You consider independence to guide a large part of what you do: you like to set your own goals to decide how to best achieve them.


  74. HAS earnings so good they made MAT (in the LTP) go higher:

    • Execs with Hasbro (HAS +12.5%) confirmed during the company's earnings call that a Play-Doh movie is in the works.
    • The Play-Doh brand performed well in Q1 with double-digit sales growth.
    • A TV series inspired by Play-Doh is already up and running in China.
    • Management also noted during the Q&A that Star Wars toys sales are already ratcheting higher with the next movie in the franchise still 8 months away.
    • An expansion of the Star Wars franchise into stand-alone movies with new characters is expected to be beneficial for Hasbro.
    • Previously: Hasbro beats by $0.13, beats on revenue
    • Previously: More on Hasbro's Q1
    • Hasbro earnings call transcript

    By the way – ROFL:

    I love the people who rush out to buy IPOs the first day.  If ignorance is bliss, they must be extremely blissful people!  

    Watson/StJ – Funny how that comes across in my rants.  From Friday:

    They are pulling out all the guns this morning and firing blanks.

    This is coming on the heels of Greece's Finance Minister accusing Europe's creditor powers of trying to force his country to its knees by "liquidity asphyxiation".

    even an economoron understands that much, don't they?

    … which does a nice job of pointing out how ridiculously thin this economic house of cards the Fed is building really is.  As noted by Dassault, the people have obeyed the Fed and bought stocks and bonds and houses and cars and leveraged themselves up to their eyeballs with more debt so – WHERE IS THE RECOVERY? 

    (Federal Reserve Notes – read the top!) they have and realize that it's only actual value depends on how much you trust in God.

    Paper money is worth nothing.  You can exchange it for nothing.

    Who are these people kidding?

    … we just want to lock in our ill-gotten gains on our long positions.  

    That's the conundrum with this BS rally.  As much as we want to stay away, there's no other game in town, so we play anyway

    LOL – I know me and I'm not sure I would have come up with calm-seeking and stable from that selection.  It's a very interesting project.


  75. way too quiet today, particularly with the springy indexes… So here's some fodder:

    Lawless gov't… is it a 'progressive' thing?

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/417155/wisconsins-shame-i-thought-it-was-home-invasion-david-french

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/04/19/obama-supreme-court-nixon-law-column/26031949/


  76. Phil is Greece problem imminent? Happening in the next 24 hours? I didn't hear that. 


  77. Watson / Phil – I can imagine that 10 years from now they will use that to write books and songs based on all the information that they have stored. Could be books on demand where you pick topics, locations, character names and let her rip… They might even write your post!


  78. I'm going to try a AMZN strangle.  July 310/450 for $7.75.  Just 1 contract.


  79. Wisconsin/Scott – What the HELL are they talking about?  Is this an actual professional article?  

    Act 10 is a budget bill for one thing.  For another thing, Wisconsin has a Republican Governor and a Republican Legislature – do they really think a County Executive can do all this on a technicality?  Here's an article from October on the subject and even Walker's people aren't backing these claims:

    MADISON, Wis. (AP) — One of the central figures fighting an investigation into Gov. Scott Walker's 2012 recall campaign and conservative groups says law enforcement raids of several houses left the homeowners with reactions "similar to a rape victim."

    Walker's campaign quickly distanced itself from the comments by Eric O'Keefe, director of the conservative group Wisconsin Club for Growth.

    O'Keefe has been the most public figure fighting the investigation into whether his group and others improperly coordinated campaign spending efforts in recall campaigns, filing a federal lawsuit trying to stop it and requesting a special prosecutor investigate Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm for abuse of power.

    O'Keefe said in the 30-minute radio interview that he is speaking out because he believes a subpoena he got in 2013 ordering him not to talk about the probe is unconstitutional. O'Keefe also continued to defend the work of Wisconsin Club for Growth saying it did nothing illegal.

    The investigation remains on hold because a judge overseeing it in January blocked the issuance of subpoenas. An appeal of that decision is pending in front of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

    So what you have here is the Conservative Media bashing a Democrat who is simply trying to do his job in a GOP-controlled state.  wink  As to the other – really, we have to read the Op Eds now?  If you do feel the need to waste time with nonsense – please do it after market hours.  I'd rather have quiet than political BS that isn't even fact-based.  

    Greece/Craigs – It could turn ugly any moment (or be "fixed" any moment).  Actually, I take back fixed, it can't be fixed – they have to leave and Spain and Italy have to consider it as well along with Turkey, Slovenia and Portugal.  The unified currency is killing them.  It would be like expecting Arkansas to run at New York prices while offering better jobs to their most qualified people and leaving whoever's left with the task of following NY labor and pollution laws but not letting them tax imports or exports to raise funds.  How are they going to win?  

    Also, notice how many countries get screwed (Blue is contributed to EU, red is received):


  80. It seems that even when I don't go to the restaurant, I still pay for it:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/04/how-many-billions-do-americans-spend-subsidize-food-industrys-low-wages

    Food service workers have more than twice the poverty rate of the overall workforce, and thus more often seek out public benefits. A new report published last week by the Restaurant Opportunities Centers United (ROC), a restaurant workers' advocacy and assistance group, calculated the tab and found that from 2009 to 2013, regular Americans subsidized the industry's low wages with nearly $9.5 billion in tax money each year. That number includes spending from roughly 10 different assistance programs, including Medicaid, food stamps, and low-income housing programs like Section 8.

    And look at that:

    ROC also found that employees at the five largest full-service restaurant companies alone cost taxpayers about $1.4 billion per year. According to the report, these five companies employ more than half a million of the sector's more than 4 million workers.

    Here's another striking statistic: If you add up these five companies' profits, CEO pay, distributed dividends, and stock buy-backs, the total comes to a bit more than $1.48 billion—almost exactly what taxpayers spend on these five companies' workers, $1.42 billion.


  81. Watson/StJ – I am certainly worried about job security down the line!  The worst thing is, lazy writers will use it to write for them and teach the machine how to do their job until it learns it so well that IBM decides to cut out the middle-man.  

    AMZN/Palotay – Good luck.  After NFLX, it's just a spectator sport to me.  

    LOL – Oil finishes right at $57.75.  Gotta love those 5% lines!   


  82. IBM beats, nice pop.  


  83. EU / Phil – The project started with good intentions, rich countries would contribute more and lift poorer countries standards of living. It did work in many cases – for example, Spain inherited a nice infrastructure thanks to the EU and standard of living in many of these countries did improve which slowed immigration for example. And it did create some nice markets for goods from the richer countries – for example, BMW, Mercedes, and so on. The problem has been that once you expand past a certain number of members and everybody has a veto on decisions, things become quickly chaotic. Add a high level of bureaucracy, having to make sure that everybody gets jobs for their politicians and you have the recipe for potential problems. As seen today… 

    Of course, in the US, we now have gridlock as well because of institutions that have not adapted to a new environment as well. So no one is clean!


  84. "good intentions" – isn't that the material used to pave the road to leviathan state utopia? Seems they have some potholes to fill.May also need some new off-ramps.


  85. As opposed to "bad intentions" of course…


  86. CL – who's thinking of shorting over 58?



  87. Phil/TSN 

    I like the story on integration gains over the next two years, coupled with asset sales and debt pay down   This may be a 55 / sh stock   I'm thinking of selling the '17 37 puts for 5, and 40/50 BCS at 3.5 or maybe the 37/47 BCS FOR 4.5   Thoughts on this?  Thanks 


  88. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 2:41:37 AM

      A European Union flag flies outside the National Bank of Greece SA in Athens. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    The European Central Bank is studying measures to rein in Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks, as resistance to further aiding the country’s stricken lenders grows in the Governing Council, people with knowledge of the discussions said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yN9Ny7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 3:22:45 AM

    To hear Stanley Druckenmiller talk, there’s little to fear these days if Greece exits the euro.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IAECpU

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  90. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 2:13:34 AM

    Sky Plc, Rupert Murdoch’s European pay-TV provider, said nine-month revenue increased 5 percent as it signed up the most customers in the U.K. and Ireland in 11 years during the third quarter. The shares rose as much as 3.9 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P9dceD

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 2:09:24 AM

    European stocks advanced for a second day as companies including SAP SE and Actelion Ltd. posted better-than-forecast results.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P9c1M7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 2:07:05 AM

    Shares of ARM Holdings Plc, the chip designer whose technology is in almost all of the world’s smartphones, rose the most in two years as consumers snapped up the more powerful devices that use its products.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bnL3Cl

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 1:48:45 AM

    Gold’s traditional role as a store of wealth has been usurped by contemporary art and apartments in cities such as New York and London, according to Laurence D. Fink, head of the world’s biggest asset manager.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bnI2lw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  94. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 1:47:22 AM

    India’s rupee fell to a three-month low as overseas investors sold the nation’s stocks and on lingering concern that Greece will struggle to meet its debt obligations.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HOBqbM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  95. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 1:35:17 AM

    Emerging-market stocks rose for the first time in three days as telecommunications companies rallied and a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong rebounded from its steepest loss in three months. Malaysia’s ringgit led currencies lower.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HOzAYp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  96. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

      Flags fly at the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building at 20th And C Streets in Washington, D.C. FOMC members may be emphasizing the gradual pace to prevent a sharp market reaction to the first increase, said Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief U.S. economist in New York. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Janet Yellen wants you to know that while the era of zero rates may be drawing to a close, money will stay cheap for a long time to come.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Emiceb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  97. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 7:44:31 PM

      Phillips 66 said in a regulatory filing Dec. 30 that Berkshire will exchange about 19 million shares for Phillips Specialty Products Inc. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    In a quest to overturn the decades-old restrictions on exporting American crude, the oil industry is seeking the help of an unlikely ally: consumers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GckgD1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  98. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:59:51 PM

      A Central Japan Railway Co. magnetic-levitation train travels at the record-breaking speed in a test run within Yamanashi prefecture, beating the company’s own record of 590 kmph set last week. Source: Central Japan Railway Co. via Bloomberg

    A record for the world’s fastest train has been set – at 603 kilometers per hour (375 miles per hour).

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HO1AeT

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  99. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 12:00:01 AM

    Shares of Netflix soared 26 percent last week as the company reported signing 4.9 million new subscribers in the first quarter and credited exclusive shows such as “Orange Is the New Black.” That topped the company’s forecasts and lifted the worldwide total to more than 62 million. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    For most of its rapid ascent of the TV business, Netflix Inc. has rented shows. Now it wants to own them.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yMPaST

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  100. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 1:38:26 PM

     

    How many megacities does China have? The United Nations puts it at six. Try 15.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HMiDOo

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  101. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 12:01:00 PM

     

    China’s push to challenge U.S. dominance in global trade and finance may involve gold — a lot of gold.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cQRSMZ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  102. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 7:01:03 PM

      Workers seen at Tehran’s main oil refinery south of Tehran. Iran is not only a large crude oil and fuel oil exporter, but has been historically a sizable importer of gasoline, and it is among the world’s top four buyers of wheat, barley and rice, and one of the ten largest importers of raw sugar. Photographer: Ali Rafiei/Document IRAN/via Bloomberg

    The world’s largest commodity trading houses are first in line to profit from the much expected return of Iran to global markets as Tehran and Washington enter into the final three-months of nuclear talks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1P9a3vd

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  103. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 10:06:03 AM


    April 20 — As Greece looks for a solution to debts owed to international creditors, the nation may be moving closer to a political answer with a new set of elections or a referendum vote. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    Running out of options to keep his country afloat, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras ordered local governments to move their funds to the central bank.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GaIIon

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  104. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 10:39:49 AM

     

    The yield on the Greek 3-year bond passed back above 28 percent today (it had briefly gone above 28 percent on an intraday basis last Thursday). 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JmpJHN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  105. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 5:41:58 PM

     

    If you live in Norway, your radio may stop working soon. This month, the country announced it will shut down its national analog FM radio stations in 2017 — becoming the first nation to set a shut-off date.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Hp0Z2H

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  106. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 6:15:04 PM


    Your move.

    I wrote last week about Wesley So’s loss by forfeit in round nine of the U.S. chess championship in St. Louis. It’s only fair, then, to note that the 21-year-old So, one of the top 10 players in the world, has been on a tear ever since. He won his final two games in St. Louis, and now three of his first four at the Gashimov Memorial in Azerbaijan, one of the strongest tournaments of the year. His current score of 3.5 puts him in first place, ahead of the world champion. In other words, he’s been playing great.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1cSqQ8b

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  107. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 12:01:03 AM

      Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, speaks during a panel discussion at the Bloomberg via Getty Images Global Inflation Conference in New York, U.S., on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2011. The event will look at global inflation in the wake of recent events, from protests over food prices that ushered in the Arab Spring, to the U.S. debt crisis, to China’s ongoing struggle to keep its economy under control. Photographer: Ramin Talaie/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    People aspiring to work on Wall Street often try to get into “target schools”—top colleges for investment bank recruiters. Johns Hopkins University isn’t a target school. It doesn’t even offer an undergraduate degree in finance. But the Baltimore mecca for medicine, Bloomberg Markets reports in its May issue, has what could be called a target course: Applied Economics and Finance, taught by professor Steve Hanke.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1G26Qac

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  108. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 4:15:02 PM

     

    KEENE, N.H. – Hillary Clinton is likely months away from offering policy proposals on taxes and financial regulation, but she hinted on Monday that she hopes to get tougher on traders and reexamine the capital gains tax.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yLZtGE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  109. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 4:00:03 PM

      Graduates listen as Vikram Pandit, chief executive officer of Citigroup Inc., speaks during the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs commencement at Riverside Church in New York, U.S., on Monday, May 17, 2010. Pandit earned a B.S. in electrical engineering in 1976, an M.S. in electrical engineering in 1977, an M.B.A. in 1980, and a Ph.D. in business in 1986. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    Student loan debt has become a big economic concern, voiced by policy makers from presidents at the Federal Reserve’s regional banks to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. They and other economists worry it’s causing millennials to delay household formation and home purchases, which minimizes the boost to growth from such a large, young population. Here are five things any economy-watcher ought to know about the state of U.S. student debt. 

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JnBvla

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  110. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 10:36:02 PM

    Hong Kong’s de facto central bank bought U.S. dollars for the first time in a week to maintain the local currency’s peg, taking this month’s purchases to $5.85 billion.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1D86NYb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  111. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 10:18:43 PM

      Yukitoshi Funo, former executive of Toyota Motor Corp. Photographer: Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP/GettyImages

    The Abe administration picked a veteran executive of Toyota Motor Corp., one of the biggest beneficiaries of Abenomics, to replace a Bank of Japan board member who in October had opposed expanded monetary stimulus.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1D82trY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  112. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:53:43 PM

    The People’s Bank of China refrained from adding cash in open-market operations for the first time in two months after a cut in lenders’ reserve requirements pushed borrowing costs lower.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1D7XaIX

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  113. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 10:07:45 PM

      U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, right, speaks with his Japanese counterpart Akira Amari, left, at talks over deadlocked Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, at Amari’s office in Tokyo on April 19. Source: STR/AFP/Getty Images

    U.S. and Japanese officials failed to reach agreement in marathon trade talks in Tokyo, a setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hopes of arriving for a summit in Washington next week with a pact in hand.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GemBjM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  114. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 9:29:58 PM

    Australia’s central bank said households’ response to easy monetary policy was “unusually uncertain” and it saw an advantage in waiting for more economic data before deciding on further rate reductions. It also warned the nation’s business investment outlook could weaken.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1D7T6Zf

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  115. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 8:04:00 PM

    Asian stocks rose, following a rebound in U.S. shares, as the yen’s first drop in seven days buoyed Japanese exporters. Materials and health-care shares led gains.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HNwAvE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  116. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 7:34:22 PM

     

    Stocks rose around the world as companies reported better-than-estimated earnings amid central bank efforts to spur growth. The euro retreated against all major peers as the region’s central bank was said to be studying options to rein in aid to Greek lenders, while oil slipped.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HNq6wE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  117. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 7:31:58 PM

    Monetary policy divergence returned to the fore as central bank officials flagging prospects for interest-rate moves spurred the greenback to rebound and killed off a rally in the Aussie.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Hplmg9

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  118. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 11:19:49 AM


    The center cannot hold.

    As the weeks since the Greek election have rolled into months, the government elected in January seems no closer to resolving the dichotomy between its anti-austerity inclinations and the reforms its creditors demand as the cost of handing over more money. Today’s news that the government has seized the cash of the nation’s local governments, citing “extremely urgent and unforeseen needs,” suggests the money really is running out. And none of the likely scenarios for what happens next seems compatible with Greece staying in the euro.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1QaaTJC

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  119. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 5:47:45 PM

     

    Judge Richard Wesley of the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York has a big, bold idea for the next step in a 22-year-long courtroom war over oil pollution in Ecuador: Start again, from scratch.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1cSlM3q

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  120. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 4:55:59 PM

      The Twitter Inc. logo is seen on coffee mugs inside the company’s headquarters in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Friday, Sept. 19, 2014. Twitter Inc. raised $1.8 billion after boosting its first-ever debt offering, selling notes that owners can convert into the microblogger’s stock at a price that was 47 percent above closing level. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    It’s been a year and a half since Twitter Inc. hired the CEO of Ticketmaster to be its head of e-commerce. While the social site hasn’t exactly morphed into a shopping destination, hints of the company’s plans are starting to emerge.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zDslvJ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  121. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 1:49:25 PM

     

    Before Caroline Goldfarb posts a photo to Instagram under the handle officialseanpenn, she sends a group text to three of her closest confidants. Many are images of celebrities with a strong gay following, such as Barbra Streisand or Kathy Griffin, and her informal board—all gay men—is quick to tell her when one isn’t funny. Goldfarb, a 25-year-old living in Los Angeles, calls the system “gay quality control.” Not everyone would subject their social media account to such careful vetting, but not everyone has the 105,000 followers Goldfarb does.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jn60rq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  122. From Bloomberg, Apr 15, 2015, 12:38:43 PM

     

    Nick Kokonas is standing at a giant whiteboard in his office above Next, one of three acclaimed Chicago restaurants he co-owns with chef Grant Achatz. Somewhat feverishly, he begins to chart out the current state of booking a table for dinner. “Reservations are predicated on two people lying to each other,” he begins. Good restaurants hedge bets on their availability, claiming they have fewer spots than they do. Patrons cancel for a host of fictitious reasons. Short of actually picking up the phone, the most popular method of scoring a reservation is OpenTable, an online platform that Kokonas says does well only because the company got into Internet reservations first. “It’s mind-numbing to me,” he says. “They earn money from leasing this antiquated technology.”

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FKXSOp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  123. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 4:17:17 PM


    April 20 — IBM’s first-quarter profit and sales beat analysts’ estimates that were already significantly lowered as the new mainframe and cloud-computing services helped boost sales. Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu, Cory Johnson and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Anurag Rana break down the numbers on “Street Smart.”

    IBM’s first-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates that were already significantly lowered, helped by sales of its new mainframe and cloud-computing services.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1JnFle6

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  124. From Bloomberg, Apr 15, 2015, 5:56:54 PM

    Amazon.com Inc., which has been seeking to push further into shoppers’ everyday lives, was the least expensive grocery-delivery option in New York City, beating the closest competitor by $20 on a 30-item order, a study found.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1aWPt24

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  125. From Bloomberg, Apr 15, 2015, 1:44:32 PM

     

    A European Union probe into Android mobile software poses a threat to Google Inc.’s position in the $35 billion applications market and may give the likes of Samsung Electronics Co. more leeway in the programs they use on devices.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FLcnBN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  126. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 2:28:41 PM


    Doesn’t Target seem cool?

    When Target Corp.’s website went offline early Sunday morning, under pressure from the demand for its Lilly Pulitzer capsule collection, and its stores were quickly picked bare by frenzied shoppers, consumers were frustrated. The company issued an apology. “We realize there is an extreme amount of excitement around this collaboration, and we apologize for any disappointment this may have caused,” it said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1Jnfova

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  127. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 11:40:00 AM


    On your side.

     In 2011, the Securities and Exchange Commission published a study, mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act, which concluded that all financial advisers and stock brokers should be placed under “a uniform fiduciary standard.” Basically this meant that brokers and advisers would have an obligation to put the interests of clients first and must disclose any conflicts of interest that might compromise that duty.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1JmyzVQ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  128. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 11:10:46 AM


    Why can’t we be friends?

    More than any president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Barack Obama has seen his signature programs blocked or impeded by the courts. In the latest episode, a federal appeals court in New Orleans heard arguments Friday about what to do about his executive action on immigration, which has been blocked by a single district judge in Texas. Similar judicial roadblocks have profoundly affected Obama’s efforts in health care, environmental protection and Internet regulation. So it’s worth asking: What’s going on? Why has the judiciary taken such a big role in opposing the president’s efforts to make policy?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1HLUeIU

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  129. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 8:53:56 PM

     

    On Monday afternoon, the sidewalk in front of the U.S. Trade Representative’s Washington office was blocked by a horse. A coalition of progressive groups — the AFL-CIO, the CWA, the Campaign for America’s Future, etc and etc—were rallying against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, in full circus mode. A “Trojan horse” was the centerpiece of a swarm of signs and protesters, many of them wearing badges from the Populism 2015 conference that was concluding down the street. Right at noon, they were cheering for the only progressive senator who might run for president.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HNGZr8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  130. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 5:46:17 PM

     

    Updates with statement from David Koch.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HN0IY3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  131. From Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2015, 2:47:21 PM

      Former US President Bill Clinton delivers a keynote address at the first international symposium on President Kennedy hosted by the JFK Library Foundation and Waseda University in Tokyo on March 18, 2015. Clinton attended the symposium entitled “The Torch Has Been Passed: JFK’s Legacy Today”. AFP PHOTO / KAZUHIRO NOGI (Photo credit should read KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images)

    When it comes to getting paid to make speeches, no one can compete with Bill Clinton, and that might be a problem for Hillary Clinton.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1HMu1tu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  132. From Bloomberg, Apr 21, 2015, 4:05:19 AM

    The euro fell for a second day against the dollar as investor concerns over Greece’s future grew, with the European Central Bank said to be studying ways to rein in emergency financing to the nation’s lenders.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Hqv5mv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  133. nkd wow 20100


  134. SPY  5  MINUTEGood morning!  

    Nice little dip on oil to start the day, $57.31 is down about 0.60 from the close.  Yesterday we got the big drop into 7:30 – hopefully we'll get lucky again but we need /CLK5 to fail $56, where it's testing now on its last day of trading.  

    Dollar shopt up half a point to 98.60 on Greece turmoil.  Gee, who could have guessed?  Oh yeah, me:

    April 20th, 2015 at 3:11 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Silver/Craigs – Don't forget Greece may fall down and go BOOM!  Then the metals market will drop to new lows as the Dollar spikes over 100 and the Euro tests $1.00.

    craigsa620 

    Phil is Greece problem imminent? Happening in the next 24 hours? I didn't hear that.  

    April 20th, 2015 at 3:59 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Greece/Craigs – It could turn ugly any moment (or be "fixed" any moment).  Actually, I take back fixed, it can't be fixed – they have to leave and Spain and Italy have to consider it as well along with Turkey, Slovenia and Portugal.  The unified currency is killing them.  It would be like expecting Arkansas to run at New York prices while offering better jobs to their most qualified people and leaving whoever's left with the task of following NY labor and pollution laws but not letting them tax imports or exports to raise funds.  How are they going to win?  

    There is this amazing thing that goes on these days with investors where, if a crisis doesn't unfold in 24 hours, they seem to lose interest quickly and then ignore it completely.  Nothing is fixed in Greece, nothing is fixed in China – it's like finding a ticking bomb in your car and worrying for a minute and then, when it doesn't go off – going ahead with a long trip anyway with the bomb still ticking.  

    Apparently, investors can get used to anything because they have the illusion that nothing can harm the markets for more than a day or two.  Every dip is undone by Central Bank intervention and there are no consequences to this other than a prolonged sense of eurphoria. 

    Today the indexes are up another half a point and that's 0.59, 0.57, 0.65 and 0.55 and that is FAKE!!!  Humans don't trade that way.  Even if you look at the movement, it's completely uniform across the 4 Futures indexes.  

    Anyway, I don't want to rant and rave about it every day but this market is completely insane.  

    With the Dollar up at 98.60, they can now find a way to knock it down half a point and lift the markets further. Maybe time to reboot some index shorts as we retest the 5,000 line on the Nas and 2,100 on /ES.  

    Meanwhile, oil is down to 35Mb on the last day of the May contract, but that's still a lot to get rid of.  So far, they have been able to keep prices way up despite the rollover, probably because traders are so enthusiastic about the start of summer driving season at the end of May and, of course, happy about the 20% price increase this month.  

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    May'15 56.41 56.41 55.75 56.00 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.38 642 56.38 35929 Call Put
    Jun'15 57.94 57.94 57.17 57.48 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.40 12627 57.88 432551 Call Put
    Jul'15 59.16 59.16 58.37 58.61 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.44 633 59.05 232194 Call Put
    Aug'15 59.69 59.69 59.10 59.30 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.45 186 59.75 76194 Call Put
    Sep'15 60.11 60.25 59.60 59.60 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.62 368 60.22 146992 Call Put
    Oct'15 60.63 60.63 60.00 60.00 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.63 208 60.63 82045 Call Put
    Nov'15 61.00 61.00 60.43 60.43 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.63 92 61.06 53342 Call Put
    Dec'15 61.50 61.50 60.84 60.99 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.50 400 61.49 219806 Call Put
    Jan'16 61.68 61.68 61.68 61.68 04:39
    Apr 21


    -

    -0.15 25 61.83 53495 Call Put

    One week ago, the front four months were 201, 388, 186 and 65 = 840 and now we have 922 including Sept and 887 if you back out May but those barrels will roll into what will become the new front 4, which is why I think we'll have a hard time breaking over $60.

    Though, while I've been writing this, oil kicked back up 0.50 and is now $57.75 yet again (5% line) after testing $57.20 (weak retrace), which is now starting to act like support and indicates the possibility of a move up to $60 if $57.75 begins to hold.

    Mechanically, you can short /ES at 2,100 and /TF at 1,170 with tight stops above but my heart isn't in it at the moment – this market is just way too bullish and there's no particular news to sober them up today.  


  135. For some reason, the STP finished the day yesterday up 121.2%.  The LTP is at 49.1% so I guess that means we may as well take a chance and press our short bets because it's fun AND it will protect our longs – if we ever find anything to buy.  So far, earnings have been met with great enthusiasm as companies beat super-low targets. 

    As noted by Tommy, /NKD just hit 20,100 on that BOJ dove replacement and the strong Dollar.  

    Arrrrgh!  The WSJ changed their front page and it's TERRIBLE, looks like the Drudge Report.  They also ruined the charts I like to post in the morning for Asia and Europe – thaat's really annoying.  

    Welcome: The New WSJ.com

    Oh well, plus de change…  

    Greek government bond yields rose to fresh multiyear highs on Tuesday, driven by swelling concerns over the future of the country’s beleaguered economy ahead of a key meeting of eurozone finance ministers later in the week.

    In early trade, the yield on Greece’s two-year bonds climbed to over 28%— a record since being issued—while the yield on the 10-year bonds advanced to just over 13%, their highest level in over two years. Yields rise as bond prices fall.

    An inverted yield curve, where shorter-term debt yields more than longer-dated bonds, signals that investors foresee a very high risk of default and a strategist at BNP Paribaswrote in a note that there appears “very little in the way of an imminent deal” between the country and its creditors.

    “We believe the chances for a deal to be reached at the Eurogroup meeting on 24 April have significantly lowered in the past few days,” economists at Credit Suisse wrote in a note.


  136. Shorting oil/Verr – Well, today and now ($57.75 or lower) is probably our last good chance for a couple of weeks to short oil so, if you're going to go for it, today is the day but watch out for a falling Dollar.

    Big Chart – What a joke!   Big volume sell-off, lower volume buy back.  Wash, rinse, repeat until only retailers are left and then let the bottom drop out.  

    TSN/Batman – I agree they're getting undervalued after flat-lining for a year. Earnings are growing and, as you note, the Financial are improving.  TSN just guided to $3.35 at a conference last month so that's a PE of less than 12 if things go their way (next earnings 4/5), so no reason not to take a poke.  

    I'd go a bit more conservative than what you suggest and sell the 2017 $33 puts for $3.30 and then pick up the $35/45 bull call spread for $4 for net 0.70 on the $10 spread that's $3.50 in the money to start.  That gives you +10% downside protection for free with a net $33.70 entry as your worst case.  


  137. Batman & Phil/TSM: Good company and I like the trade setup. I throw out for reflection, how about placing the Jan 17 30/40 BCS @ $5.55, financed by the 2017 $33 puts $3.30 (your rec) for a net $2.25 for the spread that is now over $8 ITM, but in addition sell the July 16 41 call for $0.95 to bring the net down. I would love to have to roll that July call knowing that my spread would be 100% ITM! 

    If the short July call expires worthless, rinse & repeat to lower the cost basis.


  138. Hey Phil, FB earnings after market 4/22. What do you think. I currently have  +10 Jan16 65 call and  -20 Jun15 85 calls.


  139. Winston Small corrections on the TSN play it is TSN and not TSM ( small typo) I trust you talking about the Jul 15 41 Caller. Phil's and your play is 6 of the one 1/2 doz. of the other you just pay more for a lower BCS If the stock will go up in Jan17 to 45 Obviously Phil with his payment of .70 is the winner. Playing the cherry calls Jul 15 for .95 is a long way off I would even take Jun15 40 call for 1.00. 


  140. Yodi/dyslexic options – thanks for noticing. You're right, horses for courses. My personal preference is always to go for more ITM on an option spread. I'll take $10 in the hand over $10 in the bush any day.