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Monday Madness – Weak Chinese Data Spurs Stimulus Hopes

Embedded image permalinkChinese manufacturing keeps contracting.  

A 48.9 level for April is the worst in a year and the 4th consecutive month of declines as demand faltered and deflationary pressures persisted.  That is TERRIBLE news – unless, of course, you are an investor in the top 1% - in which case this means China is likely to throw more money at the problem, which will allow you and the companies you invest in to grab their share and keep acting like everything is fine for another quarter.  

The latest indication of deepening factory woes raises the risk that second-quarter economic growth may dip below 7 percent for the first time since the depths of the global crisis, adding to official fears of job losses and local-level debt defaults.  "China's manufacturing sector had a weak start to Q2, with total new business declining at the quickest rate in a year while production stagnated," said Annabel Fiddes, an economist at Markit.  "The PMI data indicate that more stimulus measures may be required to ensure the economy doesn't slow from the 7 percent annual growth rate seen in Q1."

The overall new orders sub-index dipped to 48.7 in April, the sharpest contraction in a year. That suggested a marked deterioration in domestic demand, as new export orders showed tentative signs of improvement.  Both input and output prices declined for a ninth month, while manufacturers shed jobs for an 18th month, auguring poorly for an economy that grew at its weakest rate for six years in the first quarter.  An official survey released on Friday showed China's factories struggled to grow in April as domestic and export demand remained weak.

catAnd it's not just China.  South Korea's PMI came in at 48.8, also contracting and the New Zealand commodity price index fell 7.4% vs up 4.6% expected by leading Economorons.  French Manufacturing was 48 but Germany was 52.1 and Europe overall was 52.1, so a better story over there.

We'll get our own Factory Orders data at 10 this morning and I don't think it's going to be good because they scheduled Chicago Fed Dove Evans to speak at noon, followed by San Francisco's Dove Williams at 3pm.  The main focus for the week will be US Employment and Productivity – any sign of wage inflation could push the Fed to act sooner, rather than later.  

Remember this chart?  Apparently, no one else does because the market collapsed on this dismal GDP report on Thursday but mostly recovered on Friday and now our Futures are positive today so we should be pretty much back to where we started – as if the US GDP report never happened.  

Embedded image permalinkSo far, MOST of the US companies reporting have MISSED their revenue targets but a combination of layoffs, cost-cutting and buying back their own shares (6 out of 7 market transactions are companies buying back their own stock) have kept earnings beats in the 60% range – so who needs a good economy when you can engineer your profits with FREE MONEY?!?  

Berkshire Hathaway is boosting the S&P this morning because they had a 9.8% rise in profits, from $4.71Bn last year's Q1 to $5.16Bn this year.  That sounds FANTASTIC until you notice that $857M of that $450M improvement (190%) came from derivatives trading (ie gambling) while the actual operations and investments of the company slipped 10%.  

That will be ignored, of course - along with any other bad news by the Corporate Media, who are charged with whipping the public into a buying frenzy so the big money sponsors who pay their bills can cash in the stocks they bought at half the price just a few years ago and then, when we finally have a correction, your local MSM personality will say "Who could have seen this coming?"  

May the fourth be with you…

 


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  1. Good morning!  

    Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) asserted over the weekend that poor communities — like in Baltimore — were stuck in a “poverty trap” because lucrative welfare benefits…
    RAWSTORY.COM

     

    All the Dems can do in Congress now is make speeches – at least they are good at it!  


  2. Latest post:

    http://www.philstockworld.com/2015/05/03/an-update-on-oil-proxies/

    Updating my take on oil proxies following the price rebound of the last few months.


  3. The lines from Friday:


  4. Ryan / Phil – There are just so much wrong with the assertions that people like him are making. Who knew that collecting $300/month in food stamps or getting healthcare with Medicare would make someone lazy and not wanting to improve their situation! For some reason though, these huge tax loopholes for the top 1% don't have the same effect on their recipients! So on one hand, government handouts are toxic, but beneficial  on the other hand. 


  5. This makes so much sense, it will never happen:

    http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/05/01/Time-Make-CEO-Pay-Match-Shareholder-Performance

    There’s ample academic research showing that the more a CEO gets paid, the worse his (or her) company is likely to do in the coming years. And superstar CEOs who collect the most massive paychecks of all, as a group, returned less to shareholders than did their peers. These are studies based on large sample sizes and covering rolling three-year time periods over a nearly 20-year span. 

    Yet the SEC’s two Republican members opted to turn thumbs down on the new proposal, which would require publicly traded companies to disclose how much executives receive in “actual pay” (excluding share or option grants that haven’t vested yet) and compare that to annual total shareholder return, and to the returns of companies in their peer group. Companies would have to provide a specific dollar figure for their CEOs’ compensation, but could use an average for the compensation of their four other highest-paid execs. [...]

    The liberal Economic Policy Institute points out that from 1978 to 2013 (adjusted for inflation), CEO compensation skyrocketed 937 percent. Put to one side, for a moment, the fact that average employee pay rose 10.2 percent in the same period. Even by the preferred corporate metric of tying compensation to stock performance and investor returns, that doesn’t compute: It’s more than double the rate of growth in major market indexes, the think tank notes.

    In this context, to find that SEC commissioners are so divided over the most basic and banal of compensation-related initiatives is dismaying. It certainly doesn’t bode well for anyone who’s hoping that one day we might have a substantive conversation about the relationship between shareholders, stakeholders and CEOs, as it relates to compensation. Sure, the majority on the SEC won the vote and the battle, for now. Greed, complacency and arrogance still have plenty of room to triumph in the long run, alas.


  6. Bruce Bartlett makes the case against Paul Ryan assertion about the welfare state. Long but worthy article:

    http://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/bruce-bartlett-conservative-case-for-welfare-state

    Taken together, the conservatism of the revenue side and the generosity of the benefit side offset each other in European welfare states. If you add in that many have more free-market policies in the regulatory area that foster innovation, and citizens have greater trust in their employers and governments to facilitate economic adjustment, you have a combination of policies that promote growth not only but equity and wellbeing. The dog-eat-dog capitalism of the United States, which lavishes tax benefits on the ultra-wealthy while throwing society’s less fortunate under the bus, may deliver slightly better growth, but it does so in a harsh and inequitable way that, historically, has not proven sustainable. Eventually, the masses rise up and revolt. Thus welfare state policies may in fact be optimum for the production of wealth in the long run, as Bismarck, Disraeli, Churchill, and FDR well understood.

    My personal view is that the Republican war on the welfare state is misguided and futile. I agree with Dwight Eisenhower, who once said, “Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.” He said that those who support such views “are stupid.”

    I think that the principal problem with the American welfare state, such as it is, is that it is badly financed. The Europeans have the right idea about that.


  7. And May the Fourth be with you!


  8. Good Morning!


  9. Look at silver and gold! Having good days while the dollar is somewhat stable!


  10. Oil plunging back from $59.75 to $58.80 – nice way to start the day! 

    Dollar down from 95.75 to 95.40 to goose the open.  Now I'm short 8 /ES at 2,102 avg and waiting to see if things calm down this morning but down around $2K from leaving 4 open over the weekend.  

    If we're actually coming back, /TF long is the way to go over the 1,225 line but let's see if /YM can take back 18,000 first – that's also a good long line as long as it holds (very tight stops below).  

    Over 4,500 on /NQ would confirm that longs are better than shorts.  

    Gold $1,188, silver $16.61, copper $2.91, nat gas $2.76 and gasoline $2.04.  Euro $1.117 (that's up 10% in a month), Pound $1.51 and 120.14 Yen to the Buck is back to very weak despite the Dollar drop.  


  11. Wow, taking off now… Factory orders at 10:00 AM could change that!


  12. SDS June $20 calls at .80 this morning. A nice entry point.


  13. Interesting.

    From Briefing Trader :

    ~~German rates have now increased by a factor of 8 since Bill Gross made his now-famous call on that market a couple weeks ago — reaching 43 basis points overnight as German final manufacturing PMI beat expectations on a score of 52.
     


  14. Ryan/StJ – He's like something out of Dickens!  We pay $12Bn a year in "farm subsidies" to 10 companies like ADM and PCC to not grow food (ie. intelligently manage their assets), which keeps the price of food higher and this guy doesn't think it's fair to give starving children $300/month?  It's not the kind of thing you can really imagine a human being saying…  In fact, it's only recently that saying things like that have become socially acceptable and that scares me to think that society has already degraded far enough to make people like him possible.  Good Bartlett article.  

    I guess if you want to destroy Socialism, you start by undermining people's sense of Society.  Lots of evidence that that mission has been accomplished in this country…

    SEC/StJ – It's not really the SEC's job to enforce realistic compensation BUT this has gotten to the point of being a scam played on the investors to benefit the top people at the companies.  90x more of a rise in compensation than their employees over the period is sick.  

    It always rises in the spring but this is still a good change:

    Each day, Gallup asks Americans to estimate the total amount they spent "yesterday" in restaurants, gas stations, stores or online — not counting home, vehicle or other major purchases, or normal monthly bills — to provide an indication of Americans' discretionary spending. The April 2015 average is based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 14,712 U.S. adults.

     Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $91 in April. This is up from $86 in March, although down from several monthly averages in 2014. Still, it is the highest April average since Gallup Daily tracking began in 2008.

    BUT:

    Average reported spending increased slightly in April among middle- and lower-income Americans, reaching $77 among this group with annual household incomes that are less than $90,000. Spending increased more sharply among the smaller number of upper-income Americans, those with household incomes of $90,000 or more a year, jumping $16 to $160 in April.

    Consumer Spending by Annual Household Income, April 2014 to April 2015

    Spending among Americans in both income groups is slightly higher than in April 2014, but failed to eclipse May 2014 spending, when the average among all Americans reached a six-year high.

    Here's 4,500 on /NQ, along with 18,040, 2,113 and 1,232 and getting those Factory Orders in 5 mins (2.1%-2.5% expected, up from 0.2% last).  


  15. Factory Orders up 2.1% – low end of expectations.  Prior adjusted to -0.1% so that means that we're only +1.8 from what we thought was the last level (see how that trick works?).  

    Summary New orders for manufactured goods in March, up following seven consecutive monthly decreases, increased $9.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $476.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent February decrease. Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $2.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $482.2 billion.

    This followed a 0.4 percent February increase. Unfilled orders, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.0 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,157.3 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent February decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.67, down from 6.70 in February. Inventories, down three of the last four months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $649.1 billion.

    This followed a $0.2 billion, or virtually unchanged, February increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.35, unchanged from February.

    New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two of the last three months, increased $10.2 billion or 4.4 percent to $241.2 billion, up from the previously published 4.0 percent increase.

    This followed a 1.4 percent February decrease. Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, led the increase, $9.5 billion or 13.5 percent to $80.4 billion. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $235.3 billion.

    Not very good but the headline is encouraging, so up we go.  Tight stops now on /TF and /YM and I'll like /NQ short if it fails 4,500.


  16. Of course if consumers are spending 5% more in a month but earning the same – aren't they going 5% more into debt?  

    Gas prices shot up last month – that accounted for some of the gains.  

    Oil $58.65!  Dollar 95.56.  


  17. Society / Phil – Once you start dividing the country into makers and takers, a big step has been taken into tearing society apart! These guys are just so far removed from the traditional ideas of conservatism that it's not even fair to call them that! They should go back and read the writings of their supposed heroes like Teddy Roosevelt, Lincoln and some others! Right now, they are the takers – from the bottom 99%.


  18. Morning phill…. I was wondering how my LL position looks to you now, long 10 jan 30 call, long 10 jan 40 calls, short 20 jan 25 calls and short 10 jan 20 puts…. Any thoughts would be appreciated…. 


  19. Phil// what do u think of aapl`s move on friday?  Do u think it habottomeout r now.  Thanks


  20. Phill in the portifilo update you have the hov jan 16 short 5 puts, for a new position shorting the jan 17 5 puts for around 2 bucks would be a better position? 


  21. CTSH Reports solid earnings and updates outlook for FY . My price target not this of 75 to 80 still looks on track.  


  22. I already updated my oil proxy article this weekend, but it looks like I need to update my S&P hedges article now in view of the performances of some of the names I mentioned!

    Since the close of 3/31, the S&P is up 3.9%. In the meantime, SSO is up 5.25% so not really the 2x performances that you would expect. UPRO is up 7.8%, also far from the 3x that is advertised. But look at XIV which is the inverse of VIX. In the same period, it's up over 22%. It's a shame, it doesn't have options, but it does confirm that it could make a nice proxy in an IRA account that might not have access to options.


  23. Roosevelt/StJ – One of my favorites.  Would shoot most of these so-called Republicans in the face and put their heads on his wall.   


  24. Phill, I'm not getting a fill on my second leg of aar, my jan 16 3 call, it's a .15 bid and .20 ask… Should I wait it out??? 


  25. LL/Tri – May not turn around by Jan.  I'd take advantage and roll to 2017 (even) positions, maybe consolidate to 2017 $30s but I'm not clear how you sold lower strike Jan $25s – that's a little strange.  

    AAPL/Rookie – I'm hoping lower, maybe $115 when the market pulls back properly.  

    HOV/Tri – As a new position I'd buy the 2017 $2.50/4 bull call spread for 0.90 and sell the $3 puts for 0.65 for net 0.25 on the spreads and the worst case is you own them for $3.25 (0.10 more than it is now) and the best case is you make 5x on your cash at $4 (0.90 more than it is now).  

    CTSH/Batman – Big move today on raised guidance.  Good call on them.

    SSO/StJ – That's some nasty decay.  

    ARR?/Tri – In the LTP, we ended up getting 0.22 on the 27th.  It fell since then but is now bouncing so I'd wait.


  26. The rig 13/20 BCS phill … I was wondering what a fair price would be now to ask, sorry for all the questions today… My LL position are all jan 2017, does it look better now? 


  27. hey Phil I left you a message yesterday.


  28. The illusion of choice:

    Embedded image permalink

    This is how a fortune dilutes over time – none of these people have jobs!  

    Embedded image permalink

    11 reasons why the American economy performs worse under Republican presidencies

    Venezuela can now barely keep the lights on

    John Oliver beautifully sums up everything that's wrong with standardized testing

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink

    Embedded image permalink


  29. Phil/aapl

    Hello!

    Any particular reason you picked $115 or thereabouts saw a target in response to Rookie?

    Would seem that 123-133 was kind of a range for about 6-8 weeks before the earnings and dropped down to $125 after..of course, would be nice to get a shot at $115, 


  30. SSO / Phil – With the wider bid/ask spreads, you are almost better off playing the indices themselves which are more liquid anyway. Especially when the leverage turns out to be more like 1.5x than 2x!


  31. RIG/Tri – Not sure what the question is.  This isn't Twitter, you can actually explain things here.  The 2017 $13 calls are $5.75/7.20 and the last is $6.09 at 10:30 – so that's a good indicator of where that one is.  The $20 calls are $2.77/3.25 and the last was $3.29 on Friday and RIG is down about 0.60 since then and the Delta on the $20s is 0.45 so that should knock about 0.25ish from the last and that means if you can buy for $6 then selling for $3 is very reasonable.  

    As to LL – nope, that doesn't help because now it looks like you have 10 2017 $30 calls and 10 2017 $40 calls but you sold 20 short 2017 $25 calls and 10 short 2017 $20 puts so what exactly do you want to happen?  If LL finishes at $30, you lose $10,000 and at $40, you lose $10,000 more and above that you just have the $20,000 loss less whatever you sold the puts for.  Below $25 you lose whatever you spent on the long calls less whatever you sold the $25 calls and $20 puts for unless it's too much below $20 and then you pay the put money too.  I guess if you were looking for an almost 100% way to lose money – it's a nearly perfect position!  cheeky

    Message/BDC – Sorry, busy day but now that you're up, call my office #.

    AAPL/Maya – Sure, because of this:

    That's where we broke out so it should hold for support – considering there certainly hasn't been anything to happen since Nov that has made me think AAPL shouldn't be over $110.  As usual, we would first sell puts on a move down and then wait PATIENTLY to see what holds and then add our long spread.  The main point is, I'm not excited to own AAPL for $130 so $123 isn't much more exciting to me.  They are certainly justifying $130 but I like to buy things when they are ON SALE.  5% off is not what I call a sale.

    Indices/StJ – I agree.  I'd rather play SPY with options most of the time. 


  32. TWTR – can buy the Jan17 $28 calls for $14.25. is like buying the stock at 45% after adjusting for delta.


  33. Phil out of a longer put play I am holding still TSLA Jun15 220p long cost 34.42 now 9.10 and Jun15 200p short sold for 22.79 now 3.82. what would you do? sell the long put and hope the short will go worthless, I know TSLA can drop 30 pts overnight at present they still hold somewhat the balance. Thanks


  34. Yodi, thanks for all your stock plays and teaching others about planting trees.  I just wanted to add a few comments about your suggestions from Friday.

    OKE- nice dividend

    ETP- that is an MLP.  Here in the US you will receive a K-1 that needs to be filed with your tax return. not sure of the tax treatment on foreign returns

    OHI- it is a reit and very interest rate sensitive.  It could go down if rates here in the US go up later in the year


  35. Stockbern Thanks for your comments. ETP I know they deduct from me direct 35% Still I love paying TAXES!!!

    OHI yes that is a chance you take but this will apply to most Reits


  36. TWTR/Scott – I prefer buying the $30/45 bull call spread for $6.70 and selling the $30 puts for $4 for net $2.70, which is like buying the stock at $32.70 but only tying up $9.70 cash and margin to do it.  

    TSLA/Yodi – Earnings are Weds so be careful!  Those puts are too close for my taste as an earnings miss can put them in the money.  I'd focus on the $9.10 and the $3.82 that's left and buy those back and sell Jan $160 puts for $7 to pay for it.  Then, if TSLA drops 30% (-$70 = $160), you're still OK and you can roll to the 2017 $100s, which are now $6.50 while the 2017 $170 puts are $24 so figure the $100 puts would be $24ish and the Jan $160 puts would be what the $230 puts are now, which is $31 – so not a terrible roll even then.  

    LOL on taxes, Yodi. 

    Nice move down on /NQ, 4,482 so far.  Dow just testing 18,000 so beware the bounce.  /TF topped out at 1,240, back to 1,231 already.

    Let's be conservative and call the fall 1,270 to 1,220 (ignoring spikes) and that's 50 points so weak bounce is 10 to 1,230 and strong bounce is 20 to 1,240.  Well, that was easy, wasn't it?  

    By the way, 1,275 to 1,215 (spike to spike) is 60 and that gets you 12 so 1,227 and 1,239 is essentially the same thing.  As we look at longer time-frames, we want to look more at consolidations than spikes.

    Pulling back for the big picture, we can see that the run from 1,050 to 1,260 is a 20% run of 210 points with anything less than 1,281 just a minor overshoot (10%) and 1,300 a major overshoot.  Consolidations are the same as bounces so 20% of 200 (round) is 40 so 1,220 is weak retrace (what we just had) and 1,180 would be a stronger retrace but still bullish if it holds.  

    I'm still expecting more of a pullback – finally even on my now 15 /ES shorts though…


  37. Phil// What is your take on CTSH?  Thanks.


  38. Hi  everyone:

     

    After being without internet and phone line and TV because of a strike of workers of Movistar  (TEF) I´m now in a relative apartment near mine in Barcelona, that  she uses as 2nd home.

    CHE, Is a company I follow I think because some comments here but a poor selection of options, OI is just a few contracts any take of it?


  39. CTSH/Rookie – Good but not cheap back near $65.   They expect to make $2.93 so forward p/e already over 20 in a company showing 10% revenue growth.  So they are fairly priced to the top of their range, which is probably $50-70 but I doubt they'll see $50 again and they certainly don't deserve $75 so maybe we call the range narrower at $55-70.  Since they have taken several dramatic 10%+ drops – I'd wait for one of those before jumping in – you just missed one on Friday!  

    CHE/Advill – It's a good, solid company but weird with Roto-Rooter and Hospice Care as the two main parts of the company.  Maybe that's why they don't do the jingle anymore… surprise  Anyway, both are growth industries so it's the kind of stock you just want to patiently grind into.  They don't pay a real dividend so no need to own them and, as you note, the options suck, so maybe just sell Sept $110 puts for $3.50 to net a small discount and you can buy the $90 calls for $30 (I wouldn't pay more than $1 in premium) and sell the $120s for $5.50 and you net in for $20 on the $30 spread – that's about as good as it gets with this kind of stock – which is why I wouldn't bother UNLESS they were down at $105 (200 dma) and I REALLY wanted to own them at around that price. 


  40. Phil TSLA thanks for the play but I like to check if you understood it right Closing the 220/200 put vertical will give me a credit of 5.55 as I sell the the 220p for odd 9 and buy the 200 for some 3$ Obviously it does not make up the loss on the overall play. Is that why you surgest to sell the Jan16 160 put?


  41. PDCO/Pharm – buying animal health intl for 1.1B. BTFD oppty?


  42. TSLA/Yodi – No, I did not understand that, thought you had both short puts.  So you have the $220/200 bear put spread at net $11.63 with TSLA at $229 into earnings.  That's not a very exciting position.  How about take the $9.50 and run and roll the short $200s to the short Jan $160s I suggested (still $7) and you net $16.50 back in pocket, which is up 42% if all goes well.  To me, it's a far better chance of making $4.87 vs a real dice roll on possibly making $8.37 only if TSLA drops $30 (13%) on earnings and stays down.  

    By the way, don't cry but you could have sold the $200 puts for $22.79 and the $230 calls for $22.79(ish) and then you'd have a profit anywhere from $154.42-275.58 and up to $45.58 in between (with 100% payoff between $200 and $230.  I'd rather play 1/4x that position than 1x of the spread as they aren't really all that volatile:

    I'd call $235 the middle and you have $190 to $260 as 15% swings so, if you can collect $45 to cover a range that's been $35 for a year – you have a good chance of getting a winner – especially if you don't mind rolling out of trouble.  

    PDCO/Scott – Does nothing look like a falling knife to you?  


  43. Thanks Phil that makes more sense 


  44. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 11:13:18 AM

     

    There was a time, believe it or not, when Atlantic City was considered the healthiest place in America. The town founder, Jonathan Pitney, was a country doctor and failed politician who, in 1850, decided to turn the southern New Jersey coast into a “city by the sea,” extolling the restorative properties of the sea air and saltwater. For decades—before the afflictions of Prohibition and organized crime, and long before the arrival of urban blight, Donald Trump, Don King, and fiscal despair—physicians from as far west as Chicago sent invalids and convalescents for recuperation. In an 1881 health-oriented publication, alongside ads for liver powder, hypophosphites syrup, and “fluid beef,” one doctor claimed the Atlantic City air could even cure malaria.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1K84ObN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  45. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 10:27:40 AM


    May 4 — McDonald’s has gotten rid of the Deluxe Quarter Pounder burger and six chicken sandwiches in its U.S. stores in an effort to speed up its kitchens and simplify customers’ choices. But the menu trim might not be enough to boost sales. Bloomberg takes a look at some of McDonald’s biggest missteps in recent months.

    McDonald’s Corp.’s turnaround plan presented Monday offered many of the corporate fix-up standards: a leadership reorganization, cost cuts and plans to return cash to shareholders. Yet investors were hoping for more.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1I8tXEp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  46. From Bloomberg, May 3, 2015, 7:01:00 PM


    U.S. Crude Production

    The meteoric rise in U.S. oil production has ended, easing a global glut and driving a rebound in crude prices from below $50 a barrel, according to crude trader and hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DX9opu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  47. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 7:51:41 AM

     

    Bill Gross said the bull market “supercycle” for stocks and bonds is approaching its end, as the unconventional monetary policies that have kept it alive since the financial crisis are running out.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DZEr47

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  48. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1E08zfJ

    Will Bull Market End With a Bang or a Whimper?

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  49. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 8:19:59 AM

    Oil supply and demand don’t fully justify the 60 percent drop in prices between June and January as speculation also played a role, OPEC said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DZKw0o

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  50. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 11:24:47 AM

     

    This month, Mariah Carey becomes the latest celebrity to hang her shingle at a permanent residency in Las Vegas, commandeering Celine Dion’s erstwhile home, the Colosseum at Caesar’s Palace, for her show, Mariah #1 to Infinity. She isn’t just selling conventional tickets to the concerts. The self-described Elusive Chanteuse is proving all-too-easy to track down, offering packages (aptly named after her biggest hits, such as We Belong Together) that offer an in-person experience with MC. The priciest, Fantasy, confers the chance to “share a moment on stage in the spectacular setting of her Las Vegas show” to anyone willing to pay $3,000 for the privilege.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1F1FWEJ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  51. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 5:00:00 AM

      Sam Brownback, governor of Kansas. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Income-tax cuts in Kansas championed by Governor Sam Brownback have led to credit downgrades, political turmoil and deepening budget deficits. This week, they’ll start forcing schools to close early.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1brjbft

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  52. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 8:00:08 AM


    How cynical can lawmakers get?

    The budget resolution before the Senate this week is either dishonest or deeply problematic. Consider, as just one example, the way it treats non-defense discretionary spending.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1I7YgLo

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  53. David Einhorn Ira Sohn presentation. Kind of long, but worth the read. Among other things:

    "Swiss Re recently calculated that from 2008?2013, U.S. households lost $470 billion of income due to excessively low interest rates" (slide 9).

    "If people were spending the paper gains from rising asset prices as the Fed hoped, the savings rate would have plummeted as it did during the housing bubble, when cash?out refinancings against rising home values drove spending. Instead, the savings rate has remained at or above the pre?housing bubble levels, even though household net worth has reached new highs. As Swiss Re put it, “Overall, there is no clear evidence of equity?related gains having translated into additional consumption and thus no real economic growth.” (slide 11).

    "Low interest rates make workers save more, as they can’t anticipate earning safe income on savings. They also make retirees spend less, as they have less current and future income and need to stretch savings over their remaining lives. Both dynamics create less spending and a slower recovery." (slide 12).

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/04/david-einhorn-grants-conference/


  54. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 8:05:56 AM

     

    Imagine a country where people in the economic top 1 percent scoop up more than one-fifth of all income, those in the top 10 percent control almost 80 percent of wealth, and wages for those in the middle barely budge over four decades.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E9e5fe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  55. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 1:45:37 PM

    The average price of a detached home in metropolitan Vancouver rose 12.5 percent in April amid below-average listings, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Monday in a statement.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E14vf3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  56. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 12:25:00 PM

    Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he needs to see signs that weak U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was temporary before he would feel comfortable raising interest rates.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E0OdTG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  57. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 12:22:27 PM


    May 4 — Greece is still far from an agreement with its international creditors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tries to persuade officials to ease the flow of liquidity to the country. Bloomberg‘s Vassilis Karamanis reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    Greece’s talks with international creditors dragged on as the European Commission prepares new forecasts that are likely to underscore the scale of the crisis facing the country’s government.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1I8VTIb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  58. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 12:19:44 PM

     May 4 — Greece is still far from an agreement with its international creditors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tries to persuade officials to ease the flow of liquidity to the country. Bloomberg‘s Vassilis Karamanis reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    European bond markets are showing real signs of Greek debt-crisis fatigue.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1E0Pie8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  59. CHE / Phil

    Thanks, is the kind of answer that makes good the subscription money.


  60. Knife/Phil – lots of things do, but so shiny before my hands make it bloody!


  61. SHAK now hit the 80RSI mark.  Maybe someone knows something about their earnings next week.  Still wish I could do some sort of put play on them but still no options.


  62. LOL, you're welcome Advill.  

    Rates/Jbur – Yes, they tend to never count what they take from people as a negative.  Great presentation, I like Einhorn.

    You might want to have that looked at, Scott…

    SHAK/Rustle – If they used the IPO money to open new stores, then how can the quarter look good?  They only got $21 for the IPO so maybe $200M to spend and their valuation has already jumped from about $800M to $2.7Bn with 63 restaurants pre-ipo.  So, either those 63 stores tripled their business in 3 months or they opened 120 new stores in 90 days that are already turning a profit or someone's going to be disappointed by Q1. 

    I feel strongly enough about this one to short them at $75.21.  Sadly, no options….


  63. Holy cow, 3pm already.  Today flew by – especially for a Monday.  SPY volume 106M – better than the average Monday and up about 0.5% so happy, happy, joy, joy so far.  


  64. Down only 39%???  BUYBUYBUY!!!

    • fresh report from the Macao Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau indicates gaming revenue fell off 39% in April to 19.17B patacas ($2.41B).
    • The drop was within the range forecast by analysts of a -38% to -40% decline.
    • Shares of Macau stocks are higher today after the worst-case scenario for April was avoided and following steep losses last week after Wynn Resorts slashed its dividend.
    • Gainers: Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMFOTCPK:WYNMY) +3.4%, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) +3.8%, Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF) +2.9%, Melco Crown (NASDAQ:MPEL) +0.7%, Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) +1.6%, Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYYOTCPK:SCHYF) +5.5%, SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHF) +6.4%.

    It's that time again:

    • Twelve ProShares ETFs will be split on a forward basis while nine will be reverse split.
    • "All splits will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the markets on May 18, 2015, payable after the close of the markets on May 19, 2015. The funds will trade at their post-split price on May 20, 2015. The ticker symbol and CUSIP numbers for the funds will not change," according to a press release.
    • "All reverse splits will be effective at the market open on May 20, 2015, when the funds will begin trading at their post-split price. The ticker symbol for the funds will not change. All funds undergoing a reverse split will be issued a new CUSIP number, listed above,” as stated in the same press release.
    • The forward split ETFs: CSMSAAUMDDSSOUPRODDMUDOWRXLQLDUYG,ROMBIB
    • The reverse split ETFs: SRSSCCRXDRWMBOILUCDYCLUVXYUCO
    • Oil production across the Midwest peaked at nearly 10M barrels per day in February, says hedge funder Andrew Hall, and has been falling since. "We have now reached a turning point," says the oil trading legend, and the cutback in supply has "rendered all the doomsday [oil price] forecasts self-defeating."
    • Oil has bounced nearly 40% in the past six weeks, and the rally should continue, says Hall, as it will be harder for producers to ramp production back up than it was to cut back.
    • Hall's Astenbeck funds were up more than 10% YTD, say sources, and gained 10% last year – no mean feat for an oil bull given the drastic decline in prices.
    • EIA data – which led to the agency's prediction of a decline in U.S. output not starting until April – is "essentially an artifice," says Hall, noting it's based on estimates from state agencies that lag by months. A better gauge of output, he says, is an adjustment the agency uses adding up changes to how much oil is in storage, how much was used by refineries, and how much was imported and exported.
    • Flirting with $60 per barrel earlier, black gold is down 0.5% to $58.83.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Seadrill (SDRL +2.9%) joins Transocean (RIG -2%) as a Top Pick among offshore drillersat Zephirin Group, which expects SDRL to generate ~$532M of free cash flow this year.
    • The firm supports the long-term potential of the offshore drillers although it sees growth remaining subdued in for the next 12 months until commodity prices stabilize, which should provide support for oil and gas companies to increase capex spending by year-end; it believes offshore drillers are likely to revalue higher regardless of the direction of the overall market due to investors shifting strategies from short to long-term.
    • Zephirin also reiterates a Buy rating on Rowan (RDC +0.7%) with a $30 price target, and the firm sees the risk of contract re-negotiations priced into the stock.

     

    • Diamond Offshore (DO -3.5%) reported adjusted Q1 earnings and revenues that beat Wall Street expectations, but shares are sharply lower as investors focus on the significant non-cash impairment charge taken on eight of the company's floaters as well as the depressed outlook across the offshore market.
    • DO says it recorded a Q1 impairment charge of $319M to write down the value of eight rigs due to the drilling market slump, with three of the units to be retired and scrapped, a charge that caused DO to report an unadjusted quarterly loss for the first time since June 2004.
    • Utilization rates for DO's ultra-deepwater rigs, the company's biggest business, fell to 51% in Q1 from 66% a year earlier.
    • There's no rest for debate on Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.2%) with the creation of Tesla Energy still being analyzed and the company due to report Q1 earnings on Wednesday.
    • Credit Suisse calls the battery business of the company more evolved than it anticipated in a new note to investors. Tesla Energy helps offset some risk from the automotive side and sets shares up for a "strong run" over the next 12 months, reasons CS.
    • The premise that Tesla has the home battery field to itself is taken on in a Reuters articlewhich notes upstarts and tech heavyweights are dabbling with similar systems without the same degree of fanfare.
    • Tesla watchers also have a new set of data points to analyze after the company launched a pre-owned program for Model S owners to accompany a similar initiative for used Roadsters.
    • Shares of Tesla still trade near 2015 highs.
    • Tesla earnings preview
    • Previously: Tesla Energy launches with a charge (May. 01 2015)
    LOL – I like the fact that the #2 movie did $6.2M!  'Avengers' marks second-best $187.7M weekend for Disney
    • Time was when the summer movie season began Memorial Day weekend … thenAvengers: Age of Ultron (NYSE:DIS) set up for May 1, and pulled a whole lot of box-office money forward into the spring. The sequel drew $187.7M to mark the second-biggest domestic opening ever.
    • The film fell short of what some observers though would be the all-time record: toppingThe Avengers' $207.7M opening in 2012. A tough major-sports Saturday might have hurt the take, as Age of Ultron had a stellar $84.5M Friday before tailing off to $57.2M Saturday.
    • The new Avengers is a worldwide success with $627M in its 12 days out. Speaking of blockbuster season's earlier appearance, Furious 7 (CMCSA +0.6%) just took the month of April for its high-octane self but finally yielded to the Disney blockbuster as well as second-week release The Age of Adaline, (NYSE:LGF) which took the No. 2 spot with $6.3M.
    • Furious 7 drew $6.1M to bring its domestic take to $330.5, and $1.4B on a worldwide basis (fourth-most ever). Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (NYSE:SNE) was No. 4 with $5.4M ($51M total), while Home (NASDAQ:DWA) pulled $3.3M to bring its total to $158.1M.
    • Previously: Comcast +2.5% premarket as Q1 beats on top and bottom lines (May. 04 2015)

  65. TLT continues to meander lower. Somebody(s) is obviously concerned that rates will soon be on the rise. Missed it when it crossed over 130 back in mid April.


  66. TLT/Den – That has been a very reliable short around $130. 

    Submitted on 2015/04/23 at 11:11 am

    If you own a lot of REITS, you may want to consider a hedge using TLT or TYO, which is a 3x bear on TLT which, surprisingly, doesn't have all that much decay.  It's opposite, TYD, on the other hand, sucks as an ultra – barely keeping up with TLT.

    Maybe it's better to go short TYD, since decay is inevitable?  The options, unfortunately, only go out to November but the Nov $50s are just $4.60 and you can sell the $46s for $2.25 so that's net $2.35 for the $4 spread that's $2.50 in the money to start.  

    Going with TYO, on the other hand, the Nov $19 calls are just 0.45 and they can double up very fast on a move down in TLT (delta 0.29) so, rather than put $2,350 into the TYD spread and hoping you get your max gain of $1,650, I'd rather put $1,800 into 40 TYO Nov 19s which can triple on a 15% rise in TYO, which would be a 5% drop in TLT, back to $122ish.  

    Remember – it's a HEDGE – it's insurance (that we expect to LOSE) against losing on one of the REIT plays we discussed today – it's NOT a bet so, tempting though it may be – we're not going to put it in the STP because we only have one tiny REIT play.  

    TYO Nov $19s already at 0.70 (+$1,000, 55%).  


  67. CSCO

    Will Chambers stepping down boost CSCO shares like Balmer at MSFT?

    http://news.yahoo.com/ciscos-chambers-step-down-ceo-executive-chairman-125606612--finance.html


  68. Earnings tsunami begins tonight – over 600 reports this week.  

    CSCO/DC – I don't think so.  Other than his tendency to say something to tank the stock on Conf Calls, he did a fantastic job keeping that company moving in the right direction and adapting to changes.  

    Just a little selling into the close.  



  69. What the Clintons Haven't Learned

    Just how can the HillBilly supporters  look at themselves in the mirror knowing the record?

    Delusional is the word that come to to mind.


  70. Phil/ ? 

    Thanks for your data.

    Makes sense. Given its a 'cheap' stock, growing earnings, are you happy to sit on the sidelines and wait for it to come in to your price of $115?

    And if it doesn't – at what point will you be willing to dip your toes and with what spread?


  71. ? = aapl


  72. Kids react to the Apple watch

    http://bgr.com/2015/05/04/apple-watch-video-kids-react/

    So, Phil what are your kids saying about the watch?  I was wondering what would happen to APPL if the iwatch was less that a stellar success. 


  73. These guys just breed so much resentment among people – it's really seditious:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ted-cruz-jade-helm-15-pentagon

    "You know I understand the concern that's been raised by a lot of citizens about Jade Helm," Cruz told Bloomberg. "It's a question I'm getting a lot. And I think part of the reason is, we have seen for six years a federal government disrespecting the liberty of the citizens and that produces fear. When you see a federal government that is attacking our free speech rights, our religious liberty rights, our Second Amendment rights. That produces distrust as to government."

    It's a damn training exercise like 1000's before that! Just give the dictatorial conspiracies a rest for now! 



  74. How do these people sleep at night? Is the only good hero a hero that doesn't cost money to the government?

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/04/1382361/-John-Boehner-s-heart-breaks-for-9-11-families-but-9-11-first-responders-can-go-to-nbsp-hell

    The Speaker remains publicly opposed to the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act, which helps those first responders get healthcare. Due to a compromise to ease passage in 2011, the act will start to expire this year if Congress does not extend it.

    Through the bill, about 33,000 people, and counting, receive treatment for a least one health issue, ranging from asthma to terminal cancer, linked to exposure to toxins around Ground Zero.

    Boehner voted against the bill in 2010. He has not changed his view, spokesman Michael Steel said last week.

    These people also want to cut funding for the VA as well!


  75. stj/ Texas…watch "Seven Days in May".  A real thriller.


  76. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Power transmission lines hang from electricity pylons near Ferrybridge coal fired power station, operated by SSE Plc, in Ferrybridge, U.K. Shares and bonds of utility companies have fallen at the prospect of a new administration unpicking the overhaul of energy rules that has taken years to complete. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Power companies are bracing for a hit in the U.K. no matter who wins the general election on May 7, though the shape of the next government will determine the biggest losers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1bYryzS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  77. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 12:50:55 AM

      Sergio Ermotti, Chief Executive Officer of UBS Group AG, who reorganized the bank to focus on wealth management, is seeking to improve returns by cutting costs while litigation expenses persist. Photographer: Philipp Schmidli/Bloomberg

    UBS Group AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, said net income in the first three months of the year almost doubled in a quarter that saw all divisions beat analyst estimates. Shares rose the most since January.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IIiw72

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  78. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 2:19:19 AM

     

    European stocks advanced for a second day as companies including UBS Group AG and Adidas AG posted better-than-estimated results.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IIvD8b

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  79. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Pedestrians cross a bridge near the offices of JPMorgan Chase & Co., left, and the One Canada Square office building, center, in the Canary Wharf business, financial and shopping district of London. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

    Job vacancies at London’s financial-services companies jumped by more than a third last month as firms sought more dealmakers, according to a recruitment firm.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OVskQ3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  80. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 12:31:20 AM

      Morning commuters walk across Southgate Bridge as buildings stand in the central business district in Melbourne. The RBA is trying to encourage growth in services, manufacturing and retailing to offset a decline in mining investment that helped drive the past decade of Australia’s 24 years of growth. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

    Australia cut interest rates to a fresh record low and said there are signs of improving household spending, sending the currency and bond yields higher as markets bet policy makers won’t ease further.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Pk7VyU

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  81. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 6:00:26 PM

      The administration building of the abandoned Packard auto assembly plant stands in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., on Tuesday, April 21, 2015. Arte Express Detroit LLC Chief Executive Officer Fernando Palazuelo bought the Packard Plant in 2013 and is working to restore the site in hopes of bringing jobs and commerce to the neighborhood. Photographer: Bryan Mitchell/Bloomberg

    Growing up a boy in Baltimore can cost you.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FLxQPn

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  82. From Bloomberg, May 4, 2015, 6:00:02 AM

      US President Barack Obama and David Letterman speak during a break in the taping of the “Late Show with David Letterman” at the Ed Sullivan Theater on September 18, 2012 in New York, New York. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages)

    Tonight, President Obama will make his eighth and final appearance on “Late Show With David Letterman,” so we know what to expect. The way he is with Dave is the way he is with just about everything: Smart, composed, with better comedic timing than you’d suspect … but still sort always sort of removed from the situation, always talking to a theoretical version of you rather than the actual you. It’s why his best-ever talk show appearance remains his Between Two Ferns chat with Zach Galifianakis:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DZhY7m

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  83. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 4:10:54 AM

    Central bankers are proving to be the gang that can’t shoot straight.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IcToWR

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  84. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 3:54:34 AM

    The euro declined for a third day versus the dollar as talks aimed at easing Greece’s liquidity crisis failed to produce any tangible breakthrough.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jnbumf

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  85. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 4:04:59 AM

    Spain posted a record drop in registered unemployment in April, as the economic resurgence gathered momentum.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1KbZPqF

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  86. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 3:46:54 AM

    U.K. stocks advanced for a third day, reopening after a holiday.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IcRl5p

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  87. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 3:31:28 AM

    Treasury 10-year yields reached the highest in eight weeks before a report that economists say will show service providers such as real-estate firms and restaurants expanded in April, more reason to bet on higher interest rates this year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IcPIVi

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  88. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 3:04:48 AM

    Standard & Poor’s raised Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable, as lower energy costs and an IMF loan boost growth and improve finances.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dJGjaP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 3:03:42 AM

    Aberdeen Asset Management Plc said net outflows accelerated in the six months through March from a year earlier as investors continued to flee emerging markets.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dJGfYR

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  90. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 2:27:51 AM

     

    Glencore Plc, the mining and commodities company led by billionaire Ivan Glasenberg, reported a 9 percent decline in copper production after ore grades fell and a Chilean mine shut for maintenance.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IIxji7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 1:50:28 AM

    Emerging-market stocks fell to a two-week low as concern that China will impose measures to cool the world’s best-performing market sent the shares tumbling. The rupiah slid after Indonesia’s economic growth trailed estimates.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1GLHxcT

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, May 5, 2015, 1:41:01 AM

      Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers said they raised interest rates this month to counter an expected rise in inflation as strengthening mining investment, employment and trade propel the nation’s economy. Photographer: Sergio Dionisio/Bloomberg

    Something unexpected happened as the Reserve Bank of Australia prepared to announce its decision to cut interest rates Tuesday: Nothing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1OW5DLE

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. The IMF is calling on Gulf oil exporters should to cut spending and diversify their economies


    businessinsider.com / Ali Khalil, AFP

    Dubai (AFP) – Gulf oil exporters must reduce spending, including subsidies, and diversify their economies to cope with lower revenues caused by the shar…


  94. TEPPER: 'Four Feds going all one way? Good luck.'


    businessinsider.com / Julia La Roche and Linette Lopez

    Hedge fund honcho David Tepper, the founder of $20 billion distressed-debt fund Appaloosa Management, is speaking at the Sohn Conference in New York. Hi…


  95. 8 Social Good Trends For Entrepreneurs To Ride On In 2015


    dutiee.com

    The web has dramatically changed the rules of doing business right from fundraising to marketing to selling, everything has changed. What worked before …


  96. How to Plan Your Week to Keep Your Weekend Free


    hbr.org / Elizabeth Grace Saunders

    “I’ll get that done over the weekend.” This one sentence has become a one-size-fits-all solution when we can’t fit in working on a project, answering e-…


  97. James Beard Awards 2015 Winners: You Can Take the Beards Out of New York...


    eater.com / Ryan Sutton

    …But there was no taking New York chefs out of the winners circle this year. The celebration of American food known as the James Beard Foundation Awar…


  98. Hillary Clinton Offers to Appear Soon, but Once, Before House Panel on Benghazi


    nytimes.com / MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT

    Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lawyer told the congressional committee investigating the 2012 attacks in Benghazi that she would testify before it only once, …



  99. zerohedge.com

    The mainstream is beginning to sound a lot like some fringe blog… A week after the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund unleashed a tirade against h…


  100. US External Debt: A Curious Case


    nytimes.com / PAUL KRUGMAN

    As Tim Taylor notes, the U.S. net international investment position — the difference between US assets abroad and foreign claims on the US — has moved s…


  101. The War On Cash: Transparently Totalitarian


    zerohedge.com

    George Orwell once wrote “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.” Not exactly a cheery thought, and one I…


  102. What to Do If Your Team Is Letting You Down


    hbr.org / Anne Grady

    I was working with a CEO who was frustrated that his team often failed to meet deadlines. When I asked why he thought that was, he explained that it was…


  103. Are We Being Psychologically Conditioned To Accept Martial Law In America?


    zerohedge.com / Tyler Durden

    Submitted by Michael Snyder of The End of The American Dream blog , Have you noticed that we are starting to be bombarded with images of troops in the s…


  104. Warren Buffett says the key to whether the US sharemarket is in a bubble is down to Fed interest rate moves


    afr.com / May 3 2015 at 5:33 AM Updated 1 min ago

    The world’s most successful long-term investor, Warren Buffett, says the answer to whether the American stock market is in a risky valuation bubble depe…


  105. Component & manufacturing cost of 38mm Apple Watch Sport is less than $84 – IHS teardown analysis


    9to5mac.com / Ben Lovejoy

    The Apple Watch wasn’t long out before iFixit did its usual teardown. Research firm IHS always takes longer, as it seeks to identify the components and …


  106. Orwellian Global Economy? "Backwardation", Negative Interest Rates and the Gold Market


    globalresearch.ca / Bill Holter

    We live in a truly messed up and Orwellian world if you will. In many parts of Europe, interest rates are negative. Savers “pay” for the privilege of ba…


  107. Shanghai stocks slump amid margin loan fears - fastFT: Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day


    ft.com

    Mainland China’s main equity index has closed more than 4 per cent lower, amid reports that domestic stockbrokers are pulling back from …


  108. Teen chlamydia epidemic rages in sex ed-shunning Texas school district


    salon.com / Jenny Kutner

    Nearly 10 percent of Crane HS students have an STI, but the state still endorses abstinence-only education A west Texas school district has confirmed ne…


  109. Foxconn’s Robot Army Yet to Prove Match for Humans - China Real Time Report - WSJ


    wsj.com

    iPhone Maker’s Robot Turns Its Hand to Noodles: A robot created by Foxconn is becoming a celebrity in north China’s Shanxi Province, where it cuts tra…


  110. Ted Cruz makes the Pentagon pinky-swear that Obama is not planning to invade Texas


    salon.com / Scott Eric Kaufman

    “We are assured it is a military training exercise,” he said. “I have no reason to doubt those assurances.” Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz t…


  111. Now and then


    economist.com

    Patent records reveal that the way inventions are made has changed over the years IN THE 19th century, inventors were heroes. The likes of Stephenson, M…


  112. Greek Talks Drag On as New EU Forecasts Set to Underscore Crisis


    bloomberg.com / by Marcus BensassonEleni Chrepa

    Greece’s talks with international creditors dragged on as the European Commission prepares new forecasts that are likely to underscore the scale of the …


  113. Fox News will not quiet me: I beat back death threats and vicious name-calling after my Baltimore story went viral


    salon.com / Benji Hart

    When my story in support of Baltimore protests went viral, right-wing media came at me hard. Their venom misfired Last week my article addressing milita…


  114. 5 Things Analysts Are Saying About Australia’s Rate Cut - WSJ


    wsj.com

    1 The RBA Offered Plenty of Optimism Share on Twitter There was more than just a hint of optimism in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s statement, accordin…


  115. Investors are willing to pay just about anything for shares of fast-casual restaurants


    businessinsider.com / Noel Randewich, Reuters

    SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Investors seem willing to pay just about anything for a better burger. Half a dozen food chains have held piping-hot stock mar…


  116. Neil deGrasse Tyson reveals how the world’s first trillionaires will make their fortunes


    salon.com / Joanna Rothkopf

    “You have to innovate” In an interview with CNBC’s “On the Money,” superstar astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson argued that innovation is what leads to …


  117. The Four Tenets of Peter Lynch [Slides]


    valuewalk.com / Posted By: VW Staff

    Invest in what you know Simple & most famous principle by Peter Lynch • This rule applies even to the amateur non professional investor • With this ru…


  118. Neil deGrasse Tyson rips startup culture: â??Society has bigger problems than what can be solved with your next appâ?


    salon.com / Sarah Gray

    The famed astrophysicist discusses the scientific method, Pluto and the downfall of American Innovation Neil deGrasse Tyson delivered an energetic, hour…


  119. Global spending on cancer drugs surges to $100bn


    ft.com

    Andrew Ward, Pharmaceuticals Correspondent Global annual spending on cancer drugs has hit $100bn for the first time as the pharmaceuticals …


  120. 6 worst right-wing moments of the week — Scalia proves why he’s the “Fox News Justice”


    salon.com / Janet Allon

    The Supreme Court Justice shows off his paleolithic worldview, while Hannity blames Baltimore on Obama 1. Scalia’s deeply sickening same-sex marriage jo…


  121. Want to Get People Off Food Stamps? Raise the Minimum Wage.


    civicskunkworks.com / Constant

    Jacobs, laying down the law on Bloomberg. This Bloomberg interview with University of California Berkeley professor Ken Jacobs is fascinating stuff. Jac…


  122. Good morning! 

    AAPL/Stock, Maya – That's what I was expecting to take AAPL down, some disappointment with the IWatch sales.  A bit too much hype and bound to be some glitch or rumor of a problem that gives us a little sell-off.  

    Clintons/Pstas – That book has already been mainly discredited.  Delusional is what your friends at Fox are as they work over these issues like an old chew toy.  Schweizer works for the Hoover Institute – do you not know that or do you just pretend he's legitimate out of your own personal delusions?  Schweizer was also a Bush speechwriter – and we know what an idiot he sounded like…  Oh, and I love this one:

    Schweizer's notable clients include Sarah Palin, who he advised on foreign policy.[10]

    The guy has zero credibility to anyone except a certain subset of mouth-breathers who begin to drool whenever they think they might have something on the Clintons and are so desperate to have some "proof" that they'll prop up any source – even one as corrupt and disreputable as this one.

    In 2012, Schweizer's GAI authored a report about President Obama's daily briefs. The report consisted of three pages: an executive summary, and a 2-page table with monthly tallies of how many times the daily briefing appeared on the President's calendar according to http://www.whitehouse.gov. The report concluded that Obama only attended 42.09% of his daily briefings.[14] Schweizer's business partner at Oval Office Writers, Marc Thiessen, promptly penned a column in the The Washington Post titled "Why is Obama skipping more than half of his daily intelligence meetings?",[15] which yielded a flood of media coverage and an attack ad from American Crossroads. Two weeks later, The Washington Post fact-checked the charge that Obama skipped more than half of his daily briefings and assigned it "Three Pinocchios".[16] The Post asserted Schweizer misrepresented the President's Daily Brief as a meeting, when it is actually a Top Secret document that Obama reads daily, citing its own previous reporting on how Obama approached the PDB.[17]

    A year later, Schweizer authored another GAI report about the Obama administration which claimed that the President failed to meet often enough with Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebeliusduring the height of the botched roll out of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).[18] He publicized the report with a story for Politico titled "When Barry Met Kathy: Almost never, it turns out".[19] Schweizer's report relied on publicly available information about the President's schedule, but three months later, after making FOIA requests of non-public documents, The Hill found evidence of multiple meetings with both scheduled to attend, including seven specifically about the ACA.[20]


  123. Oil just hit $59.95 – you KNOW that's a short under $60!  


  124. Dollar dove back to $95.60 from 96 to prop things up this morning.


  125. Phil, any insights on /TF or levels etc…..I calculated bounce levels at 1224 for 20% and 1237 for 40%;

    Thanks as always.


  126. And, by the way, what on Earth is more delusional than a Republican "think tank" that calls itself the Hoover Institute?  


  127. /TF/Jasu – Same as yesterday.

    Nice move down on /NQ, 4,482 so far.  Dow just testing 18,000 so beware the bounce.  /TF topped out at 1,240, back to 1,231 already.

    Let's be conservative and call the fall 1,270 to 1,220 (ignoring spikes) and that's 50 points so weak bounce is 10 to 1,230 and strong bounce is 20 to 1,240.  Well, that was easy, wasn't it?  

    By the way, 1,275 to 1,215 (spike to spike) is 60 and that gets you 12 so 1,227 and 1,239 is essentially the same thing.  As we look at longer time-frames, we want to look more at consolidations than spikes.

    Pulling back for the big picture, we can see that the run from 1,050 to 1,260 is a 20% run of 210 points with anything less than 1,281 just a minor overshoot (10%) and 1,300 a major overshoot.  Consolidations are the same as bounces so 20% of 200 (round) is 40 so 1,220 is weak retrace (what we just had) and 1,180 would be a stronger retrace but still bullish if it holds.  

    I'm still expecting more of a pullback – finally even on my now 15 /ES shorts though…

    The only change since 1pm yesterday is now I have just 5 shorts on /ES at 2,113 avg.


  128. Thanks for confirming my numbers…..