Financial Markets and Economy
Chemical Activity Barometer "Leading Economic Indicator Heats Up" (Calculated Risk)
Here is a relatively new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.
Jim Rogers does not like U.S. stocks one bit (Market Watch)
I recently interviewed Jim Rogers, cofounder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund and author of the best-selling “Investment Biker,” which chronicled his investing-focused trek around the world by motorcycle. Since 2008 (when Rogers warned me that the stock market was going to crash), I have never heard him sound so ominous.
China’s Stocks Fluctuate on Loan Curb Easing, Margin Debt Drop (Bloomberg)
China’s stocks swung between gains and losses after the government proposed ending a cap on lending and traders sold shares purchased with borrowed money for a third day.
A gauge of financial shares climbed 1.2 percent after the government said it intends to scrap a ratio capping banks’ loans to 75 percent of deposits. Health-care and utilities companies declined.
ATA Trucking Index increased 1.1% in May (Calculated Risk)
Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.1% in May.
One chart undermines the ‘currency war’ theory (Market Watch)
There is an ongoing debate about whether global central banks are engaged in a so-called “currency war” where they attempt to maintain a competitive edge against peers by devaluing their currencies.
Auto Loans In "Untested" Territory Blackstone Warns As Subprime ABS Sales Accelerate (Zero Hedge)
We went on to note that despite the worrying statistics shown above, optimists (like Experian) will likely point to the fact that the average FICO score for borrowers financing new cars fell only slighty from 714 to 713 Y/Y while the same Y/Y scores for those financing used vehicles actually rose from 641 in Q1 2014 to 643 in Q1 2015. While that's all well and good, there's every indication that those figures are likely to deteriorate significantly going forward. Why? Because Wall Street's securitization machine is involved. in the consumer ABS space (which encompasses paper backed by student loans, credit cards, equipment, auto loans, and other, more esoteric types of consumer credit), auto loan-backed issuance accounts for half of the market and a quarter of auto ABS is backed by loans to subprime borrowers. Put simply, those subprime borrowers are getting subprimey-er.
Dubai Builders and Banks Seen Prepared to Handle Housing Slump (Bloomberg)
Faced with predictions that Dubai home prices may drop as much as 20 percent this year, analysts say the emirate’s real estate developers and lenders are better prepared than when a crash in 2008 brought the city to the brink of bankruptcy.
Standard & Poor’s this week estimated that values may fall by as much as a fifth this year, while brokers CBRE Group and JLL Inc. see a 10 percent decline. Still, builders and banks face less risk than they did six years ago, thanks to lending restrictions, a clampdown on speculation and greater dependence on rental income.
Stop freaking out about stocks, says bubble savant (Market Watch)
Bubble talk ebbs and flows, and this week it’s coming around again, thanks to activist investor Carl Icahn, who dropped a big warning on markets yesterday.
BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand (Our Infinite World)
Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars.
Oil prices little changed as U.S. oil stocks data disappoints (Business Insider)
Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Thursday as an unexpected build in U.S. gasoline inventories offset a higher than forecast draw in U.S. crude inventories, while Brent was supported by buoyant manufacturing figures from Europe.
Brent crude for August delivery rose 10 cents to $63.59 a barrel by 0130 GMT (0930 EDT), after settling down 96 cents, or 1.5 percent, in the previous session.
Where are the Next Superpowers Brewing? Look At Beer Sales (Bloomberg)
Figuring out where an economy's going to go can be tricky. You could look at GDP growth trends, home sales, company earnings forecasts — and still have only a vague idea. But there's another gauge that is perhaps a more accurate indicator: beer sales.
Jittery Markets Seesaw With Every Greek Headline As Time Runs Out, China Replunges (Zero Hedge)
Before we get into the main story for headline scanning algos which of course is the endless Greek tragedy, it is worth noting that while overnight China scrapped its 75% loan to deposit ratio cap for commercial banks, broadly seen as yet another easing move, the PBOC also engaged in its first liquidity injection via reverse repo since April in what many took to be an indication that an RRR-cut is increasingly less likely. As Reuters reports, "The decision to resume injecting funds via reverse bond repurchase agreements after a nine-week hiatus shows the bank is moving proactively to offset rising seasonal cash demand as companies prepare to file their first-half financial reports."
China's GDP is expected to surpass the US' in 11 years (Business Insider)
The lineup of global economic powerhouses is going to see some changes by 2050.
China is expected to surpass the US in terms of nominal GDP by 2026 — aka in 11 years, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies increased in May (Calculated Risk)
According to Black Knight's First Look report for May, the percent of loans delinquent increased 4% in May compared to April, and declined 12% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in May and were down 22% over the last year.
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Divisions remain as Greek debt talks make little progress (Market Watch)
Significant divisions over measures Greece has to implement to receive much-needed bailout funds were complicating crisis talks here Monday, with finance ministers warning that a deal might have to wait until later this week.
Without a new aid transfer from its 245 billion euro ($274.6 billion) bailout plan by June 30, Athens will be unable to make a €1.55 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund. A default on its international creditors–the IMF and other eurozone governments–could force Greece into a messy exit from the euro.
Greece Setting Tone for Europe Stocks Like It’s 2011 Crisis Days (Bloomberg)
Greece, a country that accounts for less than 2 percent of the euro-area economy, is dominating investor sentiment to a degree not seen in four years.
Shares tracked by the Euro Stoxx 50 Index and Greek benchmark ASE Index are moving in unison by the most since July 2011, correlation data compiled by Bloomberg show. Europe’s equities jumped 5.8 percent in four days on optimism that Greek concessions would seal a bailout, then fell on Wednesday as creditors rejected the proposals.
Businesses Worry About Shouldering Burden of Greek Debt (NY Times)
Thanos Tziritis, the chief executive of Greece’s largest building materials company, is proud of how his business survived the worst depression in the nation’s modern history.
After his home construction market virtually disappeared, Mr. Tziritis steered his company, Isomat, into a new export business, booking a healthy profit that was only slightly lower than in 2013.
But with Greece virtually broke, the government is now looking to that profit — and any spare cash at companies and municipalities — to fill the financial gap.
Oil wavers ahead of Iran nuclear deal deadline (Market Watch)
Oil prices wavered on Thursday as investors digested U.S. supply data and were bracing for next week’s deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran.
Brent crude for August delivery LCOQ5, +0.25% rose 0.2% to $63.65 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures for July CLQ5, -0.30% were trading down 0.4% at $60.97 a barrel.
Millennials don't trust the stock market (Business Insider)
In the years since the financial crisis, stocks have rebounded strongly returning over 200% value to investors.
Despite this strong news, millennials are skeptical of diving in.
Greece’s Fragile Banks Leave Alexis Tsipras Few Options in Bailout Talks (Wall Street Journal)
Greece’s increasingly fragile banking system is limiting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s room to bargain for better bailout terms and, more than anything, has shoved him toward compromise, Greek officials say.
As nervous Greek savers continue to pull their money from banks, the country’s four major lenders are being sustained by a life-support drip of emergency liquidity reviewed daily by the European Central Bank. If the ECB chooses to end that assistance, Greece would be forced overnight into a perilous regime of capital controls.
Wall Street vs. the Fed: Who's right? (CNN)
Wall Street is just more optimistic than the Federal Reserve.
The Atlanta Fed projects the economy will grow 2% in the second quarter. But Barclays economist Jesse Hurwtiz is predicting 3%, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists forecast 2.5%, and other big banks' estimates hew closer to theirs.
3 Steps To Succeeding In Today's Digital Economy (Forbes)
The entirety of what we touch, say, and do produces data – and our fingerprints are digitally over it all. On any particular day, over 1.3 billion people are connecting with each other on social media. About 9 billion sensors are following a lot of what is created, purchased, and shipped. And all of this action generates data – quite a bit of it.
Notwithstanding, each piece of data is certainly not created all by itself. Alternately, it is a symbol of various complex connections between people, instruments and businesses. It’s easy to see these connections working, what with the establishment of ‘smart’ cars, smartphones, and other interactive devices.
Politics
Obama urges China to take 'concrete steps' to ease tensions (Business Insider)
President Barack Obama urged Beijing to take "concrete steps" to ease tensions over cyber hacking and its wide-ranging maritime claims, as the United States and China ended three days of candid talks.
American officials have voiced deep concerns about both issues at the annual strategic and economic dialogue aimed at setting guidelines to steer future ties between the world's two leading economies.
Democrats Unveil Bill To Restore Gutted Voting Rights Act (Think Progress)
On the eve of the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision to strip the Voting Rights Act of one of its strongest provisions, Democrats in the House and Senate are pushing a new billto restore federal oversight in states and counties with a history of discrimination and voter suppression.
The Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2015 goes far beyond the version introduced in 2014, which would have only required four states — Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas — to get pre-clearance from the Justice Department before changing their voting laws. It was also widely criticized by voting rights advocates for a special carve-out for voter ID laws, so they don’t count against a state in determining whether they need federal oversight.
Obama Shames Immigration Heckler at LGBT Pride Event (Time)
The crowd that attends the annual White House reception celebrating LGBT Pride Month is generally a welcoming one. That was largely the case on Wednesday for President Obama, save for a rowdy heckler.
Before Obama could get into his speech, he was interrupted by an attendee screaming, “No more deportations.” The President said he’s generally “just fine” with a few hecklers, but that when you’re in his home, you should play by his rules.
Nearly Half Of Americans Don't Trust Obama To "Do The Right Thing" (Zero Hedge)
Needless to say, not everyone is particularly enamored with US foreign policy under the Obama administration.
Early attempts at a Russian “reset” have culminated in a “reset” of the Cold War, Yemen has gone from “model of success” to “failed state” in the space of nine months, and Syria has been transformed into what UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently called “the worst circle of hell” after a former CIA “strategic asset” lost track of its Assad usurpation directive, went rogue, and embarked on bloody campaign to establish a medieval Islamic caliphate.
Technology
Camera zooms can get so ridiculously close it's scary (Gizmodo)
If you want to be a total creep and spy on things from miles away, just get a camera like the Nikon P900. The zoom is so ridiculous it’s scary. Check out the video by Fratila Angelobelow that shows just how close you can get. It shows an excavator at work and when it zooms out, you realize you’re seeing that from someone’s backyard.
MAKING TRUCKS MORE EFFICIENT ISN’T ACTUALLY HARD TO DO (Wired)
IN THE PAST six years, the Obama Administration has made a major effort to reduce the negative impact of the ways we get around on the planet, requiring major fuel economy improvements for passenger cars and trains, with planes soon to follow. Now, it’s trucks’ turn to slim down.
Last week, the EPA and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced new proposed fuel economy standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles—everything from the biggest pickup trucks to UPS vehicles to the semis that rule the right lane—aimed at significantly improving fuel economy in the next decade.
Super Thin Electronic Textile Could Dress You in Video (Popular Science)
In the future you won’t have to worry about your coworkers finding out that you’re wearing the same shirt as yesterday, because you’ll be able to change its color and pattern.
In a recent study published in Nature Communications, researchers have developed a flexible, skin-like display that can change its color when voltage is applied. We already have tablets that are paper-thin, but this display is much thinner than a human hair. It can also achieve the full spectrum of color, and only takes milliseconds to alter. Until now, flexible displays could only obtain a limited color palette and took up to 10 seconds to alter.
Health and Life Sciences
Your brain works a lot like a sand pile (Futurity)
One of the deep problems in understanding the brain is how relatively simple computing units—neurons—collective perform extremely complex operations—thinking.
In 1999, Danish scientist Per Bak made the startling proposal that the brain worked in much the same way as a sand pile. As more sand is added to the pile, many small avalanches keep the entire pile stable. Similarly, electrical avalanches in the brain hold it at a balance point, or critical point, where information processing is optimized.
In ERs, UTIs and STIs in women misdiagnosed, even mixed up nearly half the time (Science Daily)
Urinary tract and sexually transmitted infections in women are misdiagnosed by emergency departments nearly half the time, according to a paper in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology, a publication of the American Society for Microbiology. These misdiagnoses result in overuse of antibiotics, and increased antibiotic resistance, according to Michelle Hecker, MD, an assistant professor in the Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, MetroHealth Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, and her collaborators.
Life on the Home Planet
Glowing world of rainbow corals found in the Red Sea (New Scientist)
There's a fluorescent disco world in the Red Sea. An assortment of glowing corals has been discovered more than 50 metres down, outshining the monotone green varieties seen in shallower waters.
Jörg Wiedenmann of the University of Southampton in the UK and his team were surprised to see specimens with a red or yellow glow at depths of over 50 metres. "This could only be due to the presence of fluorescent pigments," saysGal Eyal of the Interuniversity Institute for Marine Sciences in Israel, a member of the team.
G.M.O. Dilemma: Swaying a Wary Public (NY Times)
Genetic food modification worked out well the first time it was tried.
By planting seeds from the best grain season after season or breeding the best animals to one another, our ancestors changed gene pools and gave civilization its start.
The earliest known practitioners of biotechnology — Babylonians who added a variety of yeast fungus to grain about 5,000 years ago — produced beer and helped make civilization fun.
Proponents of modern genetic food modification through biotechnology expect it to help keep civilization going by feeding people who otherwise might starve, but the public is wary at best. Genetically modified organisms, or G.M.O.s, are produced in a more systematic way today and create much faster changes to the food supply, often by adding genetic material from various species into others.
Drastic action to save endangered tortoise (BBC)
In a desperate bid to save one of the world's most endangered animals, conservationists are taking the controversial step of defacing the last survivors.
Ploughshare tortoises are highly prized for their distinctive gold and black shells and fetch exceptionally high prices on the international black market.
Efforts to steal the animals from their native Madagascar are so relentless that there may only be less than 500 left.
Scenes from abandoned amusement parks (CNN)
Seph Lawless is an urban explorer and photographer who chronicles the ruins of Americana. His new book, "Bizarro," is a collection of haunting images of abandoned theme parks,
Lawless is from Cleveland, just 10 miles from Geauga Lake amusement park in Aurora, pictured here.
"I grew up going to the park," he said.
Climate change: Is the Dutch court ruling 'a game changer'? (BBC)
It reads like the script of a movie. Climate change campaigners go to court to force their government to take tougher action on greenhouse gas emissions.
But it became reality in a Dutch court on Wednesday, when a judge ruled that The Netherlands must do more to combat the threat of climate change.
As a low-lying country, the country is particularly vulnerable to flooding with around half of its territory – where much of its population lives – below sea level.
