Financial Markets and Economy
The bull market is coming to an end (Business Insider)
No one knows to what still crazier level this stock market is headed, or what kind of decline – if any ever, the bulls say – it will experience. But we all have our signs and signals that we keep our eyes on, hoping to get the drift in time.
No one wants to go through another crash like the last three (1987, 2000, and 2008 which all occurred during my investing years) with any significant amount money tied up in stocks (not to speak of bonds).
Post-Coup Thailand Sees Economic Slump Putting Pressure on Junta (Bloomberg)
Thailand’s government is under increasing pressure to overhaul the cabinet and bolster the economy as falling exports, eroding consumer confidence and a slump in manufacturing portend one of the region’s slowest expansions.
Jack Lew warns Congress over debt ceiling (CNN)
Congress has been fighting over the Iran trade deal, a highway bill and Puerto Rico's debt crisis.
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sent legislative leaders a little reminder about another contentious item: the debt ceiling.
Saudi Arabia to trim oil production after summer (Market Watch)
The world's top crude-oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is planning to pull back from record-high levels of production at the end of the summer when domestic energy demand subsides, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The reduction could begin as soon as September and would amount to about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day, bringing production to about 10.3 million barrels a day, the people said. Saudi Arabia told the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it produced 10.56 million barrels a day in June, a record high.
The 1 Most Interesting Thing We Just Learned About Twitter (Time)
Twitter on Tuesday posted second quarter earnings of $0.07 per share, beating expectations of $0.04 per share. That good news sent Twitter’s stock up over 4% in after-hours trading early Tuesday afternoon.
But Twitter’s full earnings presentation reveals something else interesting about the service: Americans have pretty much stopped signing up for it.
The world could have another billion people in thirteen years (Business Insider)
The United Nations just released updated population projection figures, and it looks like our world is going to get more crowded.
Hang Seng Repeats as World's Strongest Bank (Bloomerg)
Hang Seng Bank can offer some advice to its ailing parent, HSBC Holdings: Stay local, stick to retail and commercial banking, and serve your customers snake soup. From its base in Hong Kong, Hang Seng tops Bloomberg Markets’ ranking of the world’s strongest banks for the second year in a row—by being everything HSBC isn’t. While the two share roots in Hong Kong, HSBC embarked on a global expansion to become Europe’s largest lender. It moved its headquarters to London in 1993 and set up shop in almost every major country.
Japans Coal Hunger Poses Costly Challenge to Emissions (Bloomberg)
Japan will depend on new coal technology that’s more than twice the cost of traditional plants to meet its targets on reducing global warming pollution.
In a plan formally adopted earlier this month, Japan said it expects coal to generate about a quarter of the nation’s electricity by 2030.
1 In 5 US Stocks Now In Bear Market (Zero Hedge)
With the major US equity markets within 1-2% of their record highs, Gavekal Capital notes that underneath the headline indices, stock markets are extremely tumultuous. Rather stunningly 21% of MSCI USA stocks are at least 20% off their recent highs, and 68% of Canadian stocks are in bear markets, but the real carnage is taking place in Emerging Markets.
Putin Running to Stand Still as Euro, Gold Stymie Reserves Drive (Bloomberg)
Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina picked the wrong time to load up on gold and the euro.
The miscalculation means Russia is now down $300 million in its quest to raise international reserves, an effort it suspended Wednesday amid a rout in the ruble, after it spent about $10 billion on foreign currency since mid-May.
3 charts that should make you bullish (Business Insider)
1) Jobless Claims just keep on chugging (and by chugging, I mean plunging). Jobless claims have reached their lowest levels in over 40 years. This is one of the very best indicators of real-time economic data.
The War On Cash: Why Now? (Mises)
You’ve probably read that there is a “war on cash” being waged on various fronts around the world. What exactly does a “war on cash” mean?
It means governments are limiting the use of cash and a variety of official-mouthpiece economists are calling for the outright abolition of cash. Authorities are both restricting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks, and limiting what can be purchased with cash.
China's Hated Short Seller Is Now a Bull Predicting Huge Rally (Bloomberg)
Jon Carnes is about the last person on Earth you’d expect to turn bullish on China’s stock market.
This is a man who built his career on wagers against Chinese companies, bets so successful that one researcher ranks the 41-year-old among the best short sellers worldwide — more effective than industry giants from Carson Block to David Einhorn. Carnes’s bearish research caused such a stir in 2011 that he fled China and had to fight off fraud allegations. The ordeal landed one of his colleagues in a Henan province prison.
Americans' economic confidence is getting mauled (Business Insider)
This is one of those things that at first gets ascribed to sampling error or a statistical fluke or the weather or something, but then it wobbles lower month after month, in crass defiance of all rosy scenarios that had been so carefully laid out, and confirmations are hailing down from other directions, and suddenly it’s serious.
In early January, the economic confidence of Americans had reached the highest level in the Economic Confidence Index since Gallup started tracking the data in 2008. At +5 in January, the index wasn’t particularly high. But most Americans don’t live in the glorious Fed-goosed Wall-Street economy. They live in the real economy. And there, things have been tough.
What Is The Fair Value Of Gold? (Zero Hedge)
Having detailed yesterday the manipulation in the precious metals markets that implies the bear market in bullion is an artificial creation, we thought the following 'rational' chart effort at 'valuing' gold may provide some frame of reference for the level of riggedness occurring…
Nothing Like a Little Hot Weather to Tickle a Utilities Fancy (Bloomberg)
Utilities relish rising electricity demand just as children do ice cream, and as it turns out, warm weather is a draw for both.
Facebook revenue jumps 39 percent as mobile ad sales rise (Business Insider)
Facebook Inc reported a 39 percent jump in quarterly revenue on Wednesday as more advertisers used its increasingly popular mobile app.
Net income attributable to stockholders fell to $715 million, or 25 cents per share, in the second quarter ended June 30, from $788 million, or 30 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue jumped to $4.04 billion from $2.91 billion.
Damn It, Janet – Act Now, Before It Is Too Late!! (Cobden Centre)
As the Yellen Fed inches painfully towards taking its first ‘data-dependent’ steps to raise rates (albeit with the promise that such a process will follow the disastrous, well signposted creep upward which enabled so much damage to be wrought after the Tech Bust), the evidence mounts as to just how belated any such action will be. Take housing, for instance.
Here's What to Watch for in the U.S. GDP Report (Bloomberg)
The Federal Reserve's July meeting Wednesday won't steal the thunder from the U.S. economy's report card due on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Crude oil is spiking (Business Insider)
On Wednesday morning, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose nearly 3% in New York to as high as $49.50 per barrel.
_edited-1.png)
Puerto Rico Missing Bond Payment Might Bring Woe, if Not Default (NY Times)
Debt-ridden Puerto Rico faces its next big test in just a few days, when $58 million in bond payments come due — and already the government is mounting a defense against the possibility that it will not have the cash.
Government advisers on the island have been sending memos to the news media over the last several days suggesting that even if the government cannot make the payments, it will not technically be in default — something Puerto Rico is desperately trying to avoid. A default would have enormous legal and financial consequences, putting the United States commonwealth in the uncomfortable company of Greece.
VIX "Flash-Crashes" To 11 Handle After Dovish Fed Statement (Zero Hedge)
We assume this means the 'market' will break before the close unless we make new highs…
Will the Real Indian Inflation Rate Please Stand Up? (Bloomberg)
A record discrepancy between India’s two main measures of inflation has clouded the outlook for interest rates and spurred debate over the central bank’s policy target.
Bang! FTSE 100 adds 1.1% (Business Insider)
The FTSE 100 just closed up 1.16%, or 75.72 points at 6631, in London.
Something Beautiful Happened to the Shanghai Composite Last Night (Bloomberg)
After a brutal start to the week, the Shanghai Composite rallied nearly 3.5 percent in Wednesday trading. Once again, the action was rocky, and the gains happened late in the day.
But what was really notable was the beautiful swooping action of the stock market in the final 45 minutes of trading. While most of the day looked like the typical jagged action that has come to characterize Chinese equities in recent time, the late rally moved in an unusually smooth and undulating way. It didn't look like anything that came before it. Everybody knows that the Chinese market is unusual, in large part due to government intervention. This looks like yet another example of that uniqueness.
Americans are losing confidence in the economy (Business Insider)
Gallup's weekly economic confidence poll shows that more Americans see the economy as bad and getting worse than good and getting better.
Was Kyle Bass Wrong About Japan? (Capitalist Exploits)
Have you ever read John Steinbeck's Of Mice and Men? It's part of the high school curriculum in many western countries. The story is of two lonely and alienated farm labourers in the depression. One, George, who is sharp and quick, and the other, Lennie, who is physically huge and strong but possesses the mind of a child.
Politics
The secret to winning a presidential campaign (CNN)
In politics, the message is everything.
But it's not all about the speeches — even the smallest details on candidates' websites can give them an edge.
Warren Buffett could get 33 haircuts to equal the cost at Hillary Clinton’s salon (Market Watch)
When it comes to haircuts, perhaps Hillary Clinton should take her cue from Warren Buffett.
The Democratic presidential contender recently got a trim at a posh New York salon that normally charges $600 for such services, according to a report in the New York Post. (The exact cost of Clinton’s cut was not known.) The news has prompted harsh comments reminiscent of the response to former candidate John Edwards’ $1,250 cut.
Donald Trump fumes: Michael Bloomberg might have lowballed my wealth because he's jealous (Business Insider)
Real-estate magnate Donald Trump is apparently furious at former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (I) eponymous media company for running an analysis valuing his net worth at just $2.9 billion.
In an interview published Wednesday by The Daily Mail, the Republican presidential candidate lashed out at Bloomberg, a fellow New York billionaire, and said the media mogul is jealous of him.
Hillary Saves Capitalism! (Bonner and Partners)
The Fed’s EZ money is creating hard times. It led to overconsumption… then overproduction… and now to a big bust.
Just what you’d expect.
And what you’d expect next is more crashing, sliding, and busting up in the world’s markets… followed by more EZ money.
Technology
Here's What Inspired Top Minds in Artificial Intelligence to Get Into the Field (Bloomberg)
Artificial intelligence can seem pretty terrifying. On July 28, representatives from the Future of Life Institute presented a letter signed by Tesla Motors Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, and other luminaries of the science and technology world who are urging a ban on autonomous weapons. They expressed concern over a “military artificial intelligence arms race.” That sounds a lot like a plot line to a science-fiction movie, and the fact that we’re having a real conversation about it shows how far AI has come in a brief period of time.
Health and LIfe Sciences
Hormones influence unethical behavior, experts say (Science Daily)
With cheating scandals a persistent threat on college campuses and financial fraud costing businesses more than $3.7 trillion annually, UT Austin and Harvard researchers looked to hormones for more answers, specifically the reproductive hormone testosterone and the stress hormone cortisol.
According to the study, the endocrine system plays a dual role in unethical acts. First, elevated hormone levels predict likelihood of cheating. Then, a change of hormone levels during the act reinforces the behavior.
Higher anxiety risk for people with I.B.D. (Futurity)
People with an inflammatory bowel disease, such as Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis, have a double risk of a generalized anxiety disorder at some point in their lives, a new study shows.
“Patients with IBD face substantial chronic physical problems associated with the disease,” says lead author Professor Esme Fuller-Thomson, chair at the University of Toronto’s Factor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work. “The additional burden of anxiety disorders makes life much more challenging so this ‘double jeopardy’ must be addressed.”
Life on the Home Planet
Alarm over Cambodia 'timber grab' (BBC)
Ancient, highly valuable forests are being lost at an "unprecedented" rate from protected lands in Cambodia, according to a new report.
The analysis, from campaign group Forest Trends, says that large corporations are using legitimate development permits to illegally clear land.
Around 2,000 sq km of forests are being lost every year, they say.
Aging Pipes Are Poisoning America's Tap Water (Atlantic)
Melissa Mays looks around the emergency room at a frail, elderly man in a wheelchair and a woman with a hacking cough and can’t quite believe she’s here. Until a few months ago, she was healthy—an active mother of three boys who found time to go to the gym while holding down a job as a media consultant and doing publicity for bands.
