Comment by phil

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phil
October 8th, 2015 at 1:35 pm

Here's the open OOP positions – up another $3,500 today!  



STP at $362,500, LTP $730,500 so flat to yesterday at 3:35.  Butterfly 83.9% is down 0.3% as expected with the higher VIX.  So that's how I balance complex portfolios.  If we're bearish (and we are a bit) then I expect to make a little money in a sell-off and, if we don't make money – then I add some bearish positions until the balance is where I want it.   That's so much easier than trying to figure out your net deltas – just OBSERVE the action and make adjustments when necessary.  

1,980/Craigs – The catalyst would be the end of the 30-year auction and doveish words from Kocherlakota – exactly what I said at 9:32.  That was the easiest money to be made all day (already over 1,985) but it only works if you stop second-guessing everything. 



We had a premise, we go long at 1,980 (ish) ahead of 1pm because we KNOW it's strong support anyway and if we break under, then we take a quick loss.  As it stands, we barely got lower before blasting back up.  If you're going to play the futures, you have to take advantage of those opportunities – there's no time to play the 3rd act of Hamlet….

"Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;

And thus the native hue of resolution

Is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought;

And enterprises of great pith and moment,

With this regard, their currents turn awry,

And lose the name of action."

HOV/Yodi – I have to learn to keep making these picks over and over again so I look smart when they finally turn up…  



Of course we did just add it to the OOP.