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Friday, April 19, 2024

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Here Is The Complete Scenario In Which The Fed Hikes Rates, Starts A Recession, And Launches QE4 (ZeroHedge)

Seven years after the Fed unleashed ZIRP and QE to “fix the economy”, it has finally admitted that ZIRP and QE failed to do that (although they certainly succeeded in blowing the biggest asset bubble ever), and for the past 6 months the Fed has engaged in what may be the most ridiculous case of revisionist history, as the narrative has been flipped on its head, and now the all too wise career economists of the Fed (with the help of a few good ex-Goldman bankers) are pitching the first rate hike in nearly a decade as the solution to all the economy’s problems.

How To Fail Successfully (Trader Feed)

Thanks to the eminiplayer site for posting this excellent analysis from Ziad on learning to become a successful trader.  It's a true gem.  A key point is that trading success requires far more than finding setups that "work".  Whether a pattern is profitable is not just a function of that pattern, but of the context in which the pattern is embedded. 

3 devastating charts show only the rich can afford to buy a house in Britain today (Business Insider)

Upmarket property agent Savills has come up with the data to back up an anecdotal supposition that many in Britain have — that the property market "only really works for income rich (and typically equity rich) households."

house prices

Dubai Stocks Rise Led by Emaar Properties; Abu Dhabi Drops (Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabian stocks rose to the highest level in more than a week after the country’s oil minister said OPEC and other crude producers were working to stabilize the market, and following gains in equities across the U.S. and Europe.

Thanksgiving turkey prices hit record highs — but you should still be thankful (Market Watch)

The price of turkey this year is at its highest ever. But before you complain, consider yourself lucky: they were expected to be even higher.

Louis Vuitton pandaThe entire luxury goods industry is getting crushed by China's slowdown (Business Insider)

French luxury brand Louis Vuitton has got serious problems in China. The slowing economy there plus a government crackdown on corruption — which has reduced the demand for expensive designer goods that can be used as gifts to curry favour — are both hitting Louis Vuitton at once.

Iran Sees OPEC Keeping Oil Output Cap Unchanged at Next Meeting (Bloomberg)

OPEC is likely to maintain its current crude output ceiling at 30 million barrels a day, including a planned production increase by Iran, when the producers ministers meet next month in Vienna, according to Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.

Treasury Traders' World Looks Flat as Fed Signals Gradual Pace (Bloomberg)

The U.S. bond market is sending a clear message: Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon, and slowly.

Investing rule No. 1: Do your own work (Business Insider)

Here's a good rule for investors to follow in any situation: do your own work. 

Zweig cites research from Evercore ISI that indicates the top 10 holdings among highly focused funds — think Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, for example, which is long just eight stocks and publicly short only one — outperformed the S&P 500 by a healthy 10.4% a year over the last four. 

Global Oil Job Cuts Top Quarter-Million as Rigs at Five-Year Low (Bloomberg)

The number of jobs gutted from oil and gas companies around the world has now passed the 250,000 mark, with still more to come, according to industry consultant Graves & Co.

santa claus rallyBlack Friday: Will Santa help stocks rally? (CNN)

Stock markets have been hit with headwinds this year. Is the so-called 'Santa Claus' rally a reality or myth?

After a lot of volatility in August and September, the S&P 500 index recorded its best October in years. Now the question is whether stocks will gain even more momentum going into the holidays.

Hedge Funds Increase Bullish Bets on Dollar by Most Since 2014 (Bloomberg)

A busy few days await dollar traders after hedge funds ramped up wagers on the currency’s strength by the most since August 2014.

CFTC Positions

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals of 49 Tonnes in the Latest Week (Jesse's Cafe Americain)

There were about 49 tonnes, or 1,575,000 troy ounces, of gold delivered from Shanghai in the latest week.

Politics

Wall St. Ties Linger as Image Issue for Hillary Clinton (NY Times)

John Wittneben simmered as he listened to Hillary Rodham Clintondefend her ties to Wall Street during last weekend’s Democratic debate. He lost 40 percent of his savings in individual retirement accounts during the Great Recession, while Mrs. Clinton has received millions of dollars from the kinds of executives he believes should be in jail.

What Donald Trump Doesn't Understand About American Mosques (The Atlantic)

The first mosques in America might have looked at home at a Trump resort.

Lavish and flashy, literally fantastic but not built to last, they were reproductions of notable Islamic houses of worship constructed for the Chicago World’s Fair in 1893. The fair included pavilions allowing visitors to experience far-flung locales, and planners did not shy away from religion. They built mosques for the Turkish, Egyptian, and Tunisian sections—the last of which, as part of a “French Colonies” exhibit, stood in the shadow of both a crescent-topped dome and the tricolore.

Technology

Super Nintendo Entertainment SystemSuper Nintendo turns 25: Why it’s the best game console ever (Venture Beat)

Super Nintendo. Just reading that phrase fills you with happiness and warmth.

The Super Nintendo Entertainment System came out in its first territory, Japan (where it was known as the Super Famicom), on November 21, 1990. Yup, the classic console that sold 49.10 million boxes worldwide is 25 years old today. It helped usher in a golden age for the industry, when developers perfected 2D gaming before heading into the frontiers of polygons and 3D environments.

Health and Life Sciences

Shorter People Less Likely to Get Lung Transplants (Medicine Net)

Short adults are much less likely than average-height adults to get a lung transplant, and they're more likely to die while waiting for one, the findings from a new study suggest.

Life on the Home Planet

Al Qaeda Allies Claim Responsibility for Mali Hostage Crisis (Wall Street Journal)

Two al Qaeda allies, both tied to the Algerian jihadist Mokhtar Belmokhtar, claimed responsibility for a hostage taking in Mali’s capital that left 27 people dead as the country declared a state of emergency.

Belgium Warns of Paris-Style Attack as Brussels Enters Lockdown (Bloomberg)

Brussels faces an imminent threat of a Paris-style Islamic State terrorist attack, authorities warned, as the city shut down its metro system and shopping malls, canceled sporting and cultural events and told people to avoid gathering in large groups.

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