Why it’s almost Christmas Eve, Mr. Scrooge!
The Global markets are closed tomorrow and we’re bound to have a very slow half day today – if you are looking for a continued Santa Clause rally on today’s trading, you are very likely to be disappointed. Today is a day for relaxation and reflection. Remember, the words of Jacob Marley, who said:
Business! Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence were all my business. The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!
Marley was a man who worked and worked until the day he died and regretted it every day after. If you don’t believe in an afterlife and you don’t believe in leaving behind the World a better place than you found it, at least find some time for yourself so people don’t call you "a squeezing, wrenching, grasping, scraping, clutching, covetous old sinner" after you’re gone.
I was inspired by an old post on Barry’s site titled "Give and You Will Receive" listing 13 good ways we can all give every day.
’Tis the season of giving and goodwill to all man and all that and my children participated in their annual ritual of wrapping up all the toys they are done with to give to children who need them more than they do. Keep in mind that your old IPhones makes a great IPods for kids who can't afford such fancy things – even without the contract.
It’s a little thing, but if you want your kids to learn the benefits of charity, actually parting with things they like or liked and physically giving them to kids who clearly appreciate it is much more gratifying than writing a check to some anonymous organization. The same goes for volunteering some time (and money!) at a local shelter and helping some people come in from the cold for a nice, warm meal – it makes you appreciate your family dinner a LOT more!
Whether 2016 will be another great year for the top 1% as they coast along on an endless wave of free Fed money remains to be seen. So far, despite the minor rate hike, the signs are looking good. We have, however, stayed very much in CASH!!! into the holidays – just in case it isn't…
We stuffed $900 into our Members' stockings yesterday as our long trade on Russell (/TF Futures – as noted right in the morning post) made a very nice jump out of the gate off the 1,140 mark we called as a long in the morning post.
Also on the long side, we're very pleased with the performance of Friday's trade ideas from that morning's post, where we picked Oil Futures (/CL) long at $36 and Natural Gas Futures (/NG) long at $1.73. Oil is over $37.50 today for a $1,500 gain in less than a week and Natural Gas is testing $2.10 for a whopping $3,700 per contract gain. See how much fun Futures trading can be?
Of course you could also have played the Natural Gas ETF (UNG) which popped 10% over the same 6 days but you'd have to have tied up $15,540 to make the same $3,700 we made with a single Futures contract (margin requirement $2,475 per contract). Using UNG options, the UNG April $6 calls went from $1.30 to $1.75 (up 35%) and you would have needed $10,660 worth of option contracts (82) to make the same $3,700 as our single Futures contract made in a week. THAT is why we like them!
Don't forget, you can give your friends fantastic trade ideas like these all year long by giving them a PSW Annual Membership – they are easy to wrap!
Oil and materials weakness in 2015 still signal weak global demand, no matter what the MSM pundits are trying to spin and we're still very concerned about what's going on in China, so "Cashy and Cautious" will take us through the New Year.
Not that these FACTS have had any effect whatsoever on this market, which seems determined to put up new highs no matter what is actually going on in the economy. As noted by Colbert above, the top 0.01% are so rich, they can have fun breaking their own stuff – doing double duty shopping for the rest of us – and they are the ones buying and benefiting from these non-stop rallies – what can possibly go wrong?
While the Gods of Finance play their little games, all we mortals can do is enjoy this time with our families and, oh yes, if you are so inclined – pray.
Wishing you the happiest of holidays!
From all of us to all of you: Thanks for 2015, it’s been a crazy last few years, but the century is young and, as long as we have the spirit to match it – what is there that we can’t accomplish together?
Looking forward to next year’s challenges and accomplishments to come.
All our best,
Phil, Ilene, Greg and the whole team at Philstockworld!
