Financial Markets and Economy
If You're Wondering How Low U.S. Gas Can Go, Check the Rig Count (Bloomberg)
U.S. natural gas just fell below $2 per million British thermal units for the third time in three months and futures are at the lowest level for this time of year since 1999.
U.S. oil falls for third session on rising crude stocks, oversupply (Business Insider)
U.S. oil futures extended losses into a third session in early Asian trade on Wednesday as U.S. crude stocks last week surged to more than half a billion barrels, stoking concern over global oversupply.
Milder weather forecast for the last eight weeks of the U.S. November-March winter heating season has further dampened demand hopes.
BP just had its worst year since it destroyed the Gulf of Mexico (Quartz)
BP just reported earnings (pdf), and they weren’t good.
Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market (Market Watch)
Another brokerage firm has used the “R” word on Tuesday, warning investors to wake up to the idea that rising risks of a recession could send the stock market over a steep cliff.
Putin Prepares to Court Foreign Investors Wary of Past Stumbles (Bloomberg)
President Vladimir Putin is considering selling stakes in some of Russia’s state jewels to foreign buyers to raise cash for an economy brought to its knees by the collapse in oil prices and sanctions related to Ukraine. Investors are dubious.
On the surface, an opportunity to buy into such firms as the country’s largest oil producer Rosneft OJSC and rail monopoly Russian Railways JSC would seem almost too good to be true. Potential buyers see many obstacles that could prevent any deals from happening, not the least of which include Russia’s track record in mismanaged sales and the uncertain role of the state in new ownership structures.
Asian shares under pressure as oil bounce dissipates (Business Insider)
Asian shares sagged on Wednesday as oil prices sank again due to fading hopes of a deal to curb a global supply glut, prompting investor to seek shelter in safe-haven assets and lifting bonds and gold to multi-month highs.
GoPro to shed light on gloomy holiday quarter (Market Watch)
GoPro Inc. is expected to deliver sharp declines in earnings and sales when it reports fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday.
Wall Street has drastically reduced its estimates on the action-camera maker over the past few weeks following last month’s warning by the company that holiday-quarter sales would be worse than expected. GoPro also announced plans to lay off 7% of its workforce.
Oil Could Prices Jump 50% by the End of 2016 (Bloomberg)
Oil bulls distressed that last weeks rally fizzled can find some comfort in forecasts for a bigger and longer rebound by the end of the year.
Evidence the stock market may be more like the real economy than you think (Business Insider)
The stock market is not the economy. This much economists have told us.
Can China avoid a huge, destabilizing devaluation of the yuan? (Market Watch)
Since 2016 began, the prospect of a major devaluation of China’s yuan [also known officially as the renminbi] has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. No other source of policy uncertainty has been as destabilizing. Few observers doubt that China will have to let the yuan exchange rate float freely sometime over the next decade. The question is how much drama will take place in the interim, as political and economic imperatives collide.
Bank Bear Market Gets Worse as Goldman, Citi Sell Off Again (Bloomberg)
The 2016 financial stock rout worsened Tuesday as the country’s biggest investment banks plunged almost 5 percent amid a gathering storm of economic and financial threats.
Long-Term Implications of Last Week’s Breadth Thrust (Quantifiable Edges)
Friday’s rally generated the 2nd 90% Up Volume day within 5 days. In other words, on the NYSE 90% of the reported volume went into securities that closed higher. Last Tuesday we also saw this happen. In the past 2 such days in close proximity has been a positive sign for the intermediate-term. It is something I shared in the subscriber letter over the weekend, and wanted to post to the blog – but did not get a chance until now. With nearly 9 months left in the study and hardly any move on Monday, I thought it was still plenty fresh enough to share. So below is a list of the 9 (non-overlapping) instances and their 9-month performance.
A Warning on Bankruptcy in Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis (NY Times)
Puerto Rico’s financial troubles are so complex and far-reaching that bankruptcy alone will not solve them, and might even make them worse, experts on financial distress told lawmakers in Washington on Tuesday.
Instead, they recommended appointment of a federal control board, saying it would have a better chance of resolving Puerto Rico’s debt in the short term and preventing the island from falling into debt again in the future.
U.S. stock market reforms suggested to prevent market chaos (Business Insider)
A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission committee said on Tuesday that limiting the types of stock orders available to retail investors and moving away from halting trading in individual stocks could help prevent a repeat of the market chaos seen last August.
In the first hour of trading on Aug. 24, concerns over the health of China's economy led to sharp price moves that triggered more than 1,000 trading halts in hundreds of stocks and exchange-traded funds, according to the SEC.
Oil Industry's Plan to Keep Investors Happy: Borrow More Money (Bloomberg)
The world’s largest oil companies have a plan to weather the worst market in over a decade: borrow more money.
Yahoo beats on earnings, stock slightly down (Business Insider)
Yahoo reported its fourth quarter earnings Tuesday.
There's a Rush for Gold ETFs (Bloomberg)
After a volatile January, more people are joining the gold bugs.
Here's How Much The Strong Dollar Hurts US Companies (Mauldin Economics)
“At current spot rates, we would expect a significant impact to revenue and profit again in 2016.”
S&P thinks 10 of the world's biggest oil companies just got a lot riskier (Business Insider)
The credit ratings of ten of the largest energy companies just got downgraded by Standard & Poor's.
In a release on Tuesday afternoon, the ratings service downgraded the companies including Chevron (AA- from AA), EOG Resources (BBB+ from A-), and Hess (BBB- from BBB).
Treasuries Rally Poised for Imminent Reversal, Indicators Show (Bloomberg)
The rally in Treasuries has pushed key technical indicators to extreme levels that have repeatedly preceded reversals in the past year.
Investors still haven't figured Ferrari out (Business Insider)
Ferrari just reported earnings and told investors that it expects to ship 7,900 cars in 2016.
At just 3% more than last year, that's a slower pace of growth than in 2015.
The stock got clobbered Tuesday, falling about 13% by mid-afternoon.
Politics
The Great Democratic Age Gap (The Atlantic)
Bernie Sanders answered two important questions with his strong showing in Iowa. But, despite his impressive finish, he’ll need to answer two more to truly threaten Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Iowa Is Over. Now It Gets Interesting. (Bloomberg View)
That this is a year when everything is up for grabs was confirmed Monday night in Iowa, with two almost equally unacceptable outsiders — Senator Ted Cruz and Donald Trump — running 1 and 2 in Iowa's Republican caucuses. The party establishment would take their own lives if one of them actually wins the nomination.
Technology
Older adults worry ‘robot butlers’ will take over (Futurity)
Interviews with older adults suggest they would be accepting of robots that help with household chores or act as entertainers, but are worried about giving the machines too much control.
The findings from the small study suggest mental models formed by senior citizens—specifically negative and positive notions about robots—shape their comfort level with the machines.
These GUESS Jeans Hydrate Skin (PSFK)
The future of fashion seems to suggest a fusion between style and technology. Many forward-thinking designs mix the aesthetic appeal of fashion with the practical uses of digital technology, sensors or electronics.But GUESS joins the fashion and tech conversation with something different: a collection of items that introduce technology in seamless way. No wires or sensors are required in the Jeancare collection.
Health and Life Sciences
A New Vision for Dreams of the Dying (NY Times)
One evening in the late fall, Lucien Majors, 84, sat at his kitchen table, his wife Jan by his side, as he described a recent dream.
Mr. Majors had end-stage bladder cancer and was in renal failure. As he spoke with a doctor from Hospice Buffalo , he was alert but faltering.
High-Fiber Diet Now Might Help Lower Girls' Breast Cancer Risk Later (Forbes)
Teenage girls and young women who eat a lot of foods high in fiber, such as fruits and vegetables, may have a lower risk of breast cancer later in life, a new study suggests.
The researchers found that the women who consumed high amounts of fiber during early adulthood had a 12 to 19 percent lower risk of developing breast cancer over the 20-year study, compared with the women who consumed very little fiber in early adulthood.
Life on the Home Planet
'Early warning sign' for volcanic eruptions (BBC)
Volcanoes are primed to erupt on a time scale of days to months rather than years, research suggests.
The study raises hopes of finding a more accurate way to tell when a volcano is about to explode, scientists at Oxford University say.
