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Troubling Tuesday – Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

“In a word, I was too cowardly to do what I knew to be right, as I had been too cowardly to avoid doing what I knew to be wrong.” – Dickens, Great Expectations

Great expectations.

That sums up the mood of the market very nicely.  In this very interesting chart (thanks Scott Miller), you can see how the earnings expectations for the S&P 500 are generally fantastic at the start of each year, only to lead to crushing disappointment by the end of the year.  2017 earnings expectations are already down 15% from where they started and 2016 actual earnings are coming in 20% below early estimates.  

In fact (I know, what are facts?), ACTUAL earnings for 2016 are only 8% higher than 2013s earnings were yet the S&P itself has risen from 1,500 in Jan 2013 (when expectations were higher than the actual 2016 earnings) to 2,268 at yesterday's close.  That's up 51.2% on 8% more earnings – boy are we suckers!  And keep in mind these are OPERATING EARNINGS – not including interest payments and taxes or, as investors like to call them – real profits! 

Any way you slice it, we're paying at least 20% too much for equities based on their actual performance.  20% off 2,268 is 1,814 and our fair value estimate for the S&P on our Big Chart is 1,850 and if earnings do rise 8%, as expected, then we'll be happy to raise our bar 10% to 2,035 so let's say that's the fair forward value of the S&P.

As you can see from this Haver Analytics chart, since 2013, S&P companies have taken on a tremendous amount of debt, much of it used for stock buybacks, which reduces the number of shares the earnings are divided by to make earnings look like they are improving – even when they are actually not.  In fact, the real earnings of the S&P 500 are DOWN 9.01% from 2013.

You will not hear this from the usual MSM cheerleaders, even though the numbers are right there – they don't want to let facts get in the way of a good story and nobody likes to hear negative news and, more importantly, viewers don't tune in to hear it.  They want to hear that their investments will all double and they are going to become rich very soon and, if you can't tell them how to make that happen – they will find someone who will (tell them, that is – it won't actually happen).  

Rallies equal ratings so they will milk a rally long after it's time has past – They are "too cowardly to do what they know to be right, too cowardly to avoid doing what they know is wrong."  It's amazing, after ruining so many people's lives in 2008, the media is right back at it in 2017 – telling people the rally will never end and encouraging them to BUYBUYBUY at any price – consequences be damned!  

Don't forget – none of these people were fired – they are, in fact, the same people, telling you the same things today as they did 9 years ago:

Note the sincerity in their awful advice.  Note how sure they are that your money is safe, so sure that they tell you that you are a fool for worrying.  This went on month after month as they told their poor followers to buy on every dip and every month we dipped lower still.  Only when the market bottomed did they finally tell viewers to get out – at exactly the wrong time!  

Barc 2Don't get me wrong, sentiment can take a market very far (see 1999) and Government stimulus can take it even further but isn't a 51.2% gain on a 9% decline in earnings far enough?  If you are a momentum investor – God bless you, have fun but, if you are a fundamental investor who is building for the future – well, have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  

There are still value stocks out there.  It's actually amazing the things that have fallen out of favor in this mega-rally.  That also happened in 1999 when "boring" companies like IBM, KO, PG, PFE, JNJ… couldn't find buyers as all the money was chasing tech stocks.  In our Live Member Chat Room, we're finding 3-5 value stocks per day to play with – they may not be as sexy as the momentum plays – but they'll do much better if the market turns sour and people fly back to safety. 

Meanwhile, we remain "Cashy and Cautious" in what we think is a very toppy and overpriced market.  If we survive earnings and the first month of the Trump Error, then we might be willing to bring more cash off the sideline but, for now – we'd rather watch and wait.  Of course, waiting can be very profitable too.  Back on Thanksgiving, in case we were being too conservative, we took an upside hedge in case the Dow popped.  At the time, I said:

The Russell 2,000 is just under 1,350 and that's up 200 points since early November (not counting their spike down) and that is just shy of 15% so the Dow is MILES behind if the move in the Russell is real (we have bet it is not but those bets are killing us!).  The Nasdaq is up 4.3% and the S&P is up 5.5% and the NYSE, the broadest index, is up 4.8% so it's really the Russell that's a huge outlier – and that's why we're shorting it.

HOWEVER, we could be (and have been) very wrong about the Russell and, if so and it heads higher still, then it's the other indexes that should be catching up so we can hedge our hedges with long positions on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.  For example, the Dow ETF (DIA) is at $190 so a 5% move in the Dow would be $199.50 and we can make the following play to gain leverage:

  • Buy 30 DIA March $188 calls at $6.70 ($20,100)
  • Sell 30 DIA March $193 calls at $3.75 ($11,250)
  • Sell 5 AAPL 2019 $97.50 puts for $10 ($5,000)

This spread requires a net cash outlay of $3,750 and the spread pays $15,000 back if the Dow even squeaks higher into March expiration (17th) and you can use any stock for an offset but Apple (AAPL) is a major Dow component and makes a very desirable buy at $97.50 and the margin on 5 short puts is just $5,000 – so it's a very efficient trade that profits $16,250 (433%) if the Dow goes up 2.5% – good deal, right?

Oddly enough, the Russell is only at 1,358 so we backed the right horse and the Dow did catch up and DIA is already at $198.76, which has driven the March $188 calls to $12.28 less the cost of the $193s ($7.85) is $4.43 out of a possible $5 already and 30 contracts is $13,290 which is up $9,540 (254%) in less than two months.  I'd leave the short Apple puts to expire worthless but, even if you cashed them at $8.25, that's $4,125 and you're still netting $5,415 for a 144% gain well ahead of schedule

So, like I said – it's not like we don't find lots of fun ways to make money in our Live Member Chat Room – it's just that we're being selective and keeping plenty of buying power on the sidelines.  Even if the market doesn't go down – earnings season always throws a few bargains our way.

 


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  1. Latch and Scott- Those pieces about why the Dems lost are just ridiculous. Hillary lost because the Republicans have been shouting lies about her for years and years and people like you guys actullay believe things if they are said long enough and loud enough. We still have not one proven or actionable charge against her. The email crap turned out to be just that, crap. Go back to Whitewater where they spent years and millions and came up with nothing. So, she lost because people didn't "like" her. She is a tough WOMAN and people equate that wih her being a b*tch and this is what our country has become. We judge based on how you look and sound in quick sound bytes on TV and Trump is a master at that while Hillary is not. Trump has been caught lying almost every day. He says there is no evidence Russia meddled, but ALL of the intelligence agencies have put in writing that they did! He says he didn't mock the handicapped reporter, but there is video of him mocking the guy. He is a proven liar, yet you guys keep calling Hillary a liar without a shred of proof. She was the far more qualified candidate and would have been a much better choice. She has spent a lifetime in public service helping others and somehow this gets dismissed. It is a sad commentary that seemingly intelligent people like yourselves are taken in by guys like Jimmy Dore who spouts this crap that is blatantly false and manipulative. Finally, I agree that Hillary was an unattractive candidate because so many people like you guys were fooled into believing that she is dishonest, which again has never been proven. She is a politician who tries to make truths fit her agenda and positions herself too often to fit public opinion rather than her own beliefs. That in my opinion is her downfall. I still believe she was the most qualified and brightest candidate int he field, but I was a Bernie fan too. I will end by saying how anyone who supports Trump can call another candidate a liar while ignoring or excusing the blatant lies he spouts on a daily basis is beyond me.


  2. More importantly, what a great night it was to be long NG! I mentioned that I went long yesterday at 3.11 or 3.12 and I had built a position of several contracts that paid off quite well this morning as we popped back to 3.24! Over $5k in gain there. I also did well going long oil at 52 late yesterday. Also jumping in and out of silver and gold as they trade in a range. I am now waiting to see what Phil calls and will take it from there. Still long 1 contract of oil at 52 and 1 NG at 3.12 hoping to see a bit more of a pop, but tight stops on both. Going long on silver every time it is near 16.60 for now and gold at 1181ish. Again with tight stops as the dollar could pop and end all of this and then we will have to see where it settles down.


  3. craig – nice work on NG. I like your idea for SI and GC


  4. Nasdaq just powering along! Maybe some bad earnings would help start the correction.


  5. Phil your article is excellent and it still is only in progress!


  6. ~~VRX +11.7% (divests its CeraVe, AcneFree and AMBI Skincare brands To L'Oreal (LRLCY) for $1.3 bln; also to divest Dendreon for $819.9 mln.

    I thought yesterday. when Takeda announced that they were buying ARIA. that it was bad news for VRX.  It had been rumored that Takeda was going to buy Salix, a VRX subsidiary.  Obviously, VRX had other irons in the fire.


  7. CRAIG, I would also point out that Hillary, in spite of all that, WON by about 3 million votes, but lost the election due to the electoral college bias against large/urban states, not to mention voter suppressio and FBI interference. Trump is so unqualified and damaved, possibly mentally ill, it is truly frightening .


  8. jabo – ditto on Phil's piece today


  9. Good Morning.


  10. ?“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” My favorite quote for today (and the next four years) ….


  11. ? – not sure why those keep popping up!


  12. craig – Thank you – just made $1.5k in 15min on SI – 16.67 to 16.825


  13. Flat CMG common for a small loss after holding it all the way down to 352.


  14. Nice work Latch. Watch out now though as it could pull back hard after a run up like that, Could also continue of the dollar continues to drop precipitously, but that seems unlikely


  15. Phil-- with AAPL running back up is there anything you would suggest for us who still own the Jan 2018 85-110 call spreads and the 80-110 call spreads? TIA.


  16. VRX…also had positive data in a second PIII trial for psoriasis combo drug.  Very nice.

    ARIA….not unexpected.  They had a poison pill for a while, but I wonder if they changed it?

    PETX…..get ready.

    Rumors continue to swirl that PFE is looking at ACAD.

    Watching JPM Bio conference with great interest. 


  17. What a game last night in college football!.  I shouda put money on Clemson.  I woulda had I been in Vegas.


  18. Good morning and hi ho silver!  

    Just like the white-winged dove…   

    Good calls Craigs – my advice is people should follow you.  To me, things are too dicey to make futures trades at the moment.  

    Big Chart – That NYSE stubbornly doesn't want to join the rally.  Oddly, it contains pretty much all the stocks the other indexes have.  

    Thanks Jabob. Latch.  

    Funny action on CMG, was down 4%, now up 4% off earnings warning.  As we expected, it was baked in.

     

    Congrats to the players on that one, we're back on track!  Half cover paying off too.  

    How can you not love option, at $430 we get back $130,000 – up about $50K from here and we already made $30K on the other 5 short calls.  That's a roll, of course, we lost $26K on the first round but that's the point of planning to reposition from the outset – very rewarding!  

    Now /KC popping $150.  Looking good for our Secret Santa Inflation Hedges…

    AAPL/Jabob – BIRDHANDBIRD is my main feeling on those.  $80-110 looks like $24 so you will make $6 more at $110 – that's good for a new trade for most people and you want to dump it?  At this point, there's no reason to do anything fancy – just cash them in and set up a new 2019 spread if you want more leverage.  The 2019 $100 ($27)/130 ($11.85) bull call spread is $15.15 so you can buy 2x of those vs what you have and sell 1x of the $95 puts for $7.50 to drop the net to $11.40 and you stand to triple up what you have now at $130 though I wouldn't be greedy and I'd just use 1/2 my winnings so you have room to adjust – just in case.  

    ACAD/Pharm – Not much of a move considering.

    PETX seems like a fun one to play, what's your expectations?

    Game was amazing! 


  19. Now short CL at 52. Stopped out of SI and gold for now as I wait to see where they go from here after significant pops this morning. NG I am out for now also as the forecast is for some warm air, but it keeps changing, so…will wait and see and enjoy my gains.


  20. PETX….launches Galliprant 1Q.  WOOF was bout out by Mars….so the sector will continue to consolidate.


  21. Phil my stock ILMN is up 22 $ today quite a jump


  22. ILMN signed a deal with IBM/Watson.  Interesting, but not $22 worth…


  23. Pharm – Looks like our short VRX Jan 12.50 puts are golden.

    Do you know CGEN ?  I'm hearing some good things about it.


  24. ILMN/Yodi – Nailed it – very nice call!  

    yodi

    October 30th, 2016 at 4:50 pm | PermalinkTweet thisIgnore this user

    Just looking at a company ILMN. Possible it is more for Pharm to analyse this company as the company produces equipment used in a high tech. medical field, beyond my knowledge

    The company has a positive cash flow and looks sound. But what comes to my notice that on a Tech. chart it has a strange graph. July 2015 the stock shows a high of 240 and drops in Oct 2015 to 136 Jan 2016 up to 194, Feb down again to 135.  Apr up to 180 next day!!! down to 135 than Oct up to 192 again and next day down to 134. Very strange without deeper investigation. Today slow up to 138.

    Looking at a play Jan2018 as follows BCS 115/145 @ 16.60 and selling the 125 put for 15.10. So for a 1.50 cost I hold a 30$ spread. Over the 2 year period the company never reached 125$

    Like to hear from you any constructive opinion

    PETX does not have the best options – only go out to Aug and thinly traded but I think buying the stock for $8.10 and selling the Aug $7.50 calls for $1.80 and the $7.50 puts for $1.60 nets you in for $4.70/6.10, which is a great discount if assigned and, if they get bought, you get called away early with a nice $3.30 (70%) gain in less than the 220 days you have to wait otherwise.


  25. CL- Wheee! Got lucky again. As Phil points out it is very dicey right now with all these big moves, so I will wait now and see what happens from here. My only current futures trade at this moment is shorting TF at 1362 . Out of the commodities for the moment as I digest my big morning which as Phil points out was probably just luck on my part, although I like to think I have finally learned to see some of the trading patterns that the bots employ and took advantage of that.


  26. Oh Phil, Stevie Nicks in her prime, TY for that treat. Yum!


  27. ~~WMB – Williams Cos prices 65 mln shares of common stock at $29.00 per share  

    ~~Williams’ quarterly dividend to be paid in March 2017 expected to be increased to $0.30 per share ($1.20 on an annualized basis), representing a 50% increase to the current payout, and targeting 10-15% annual growth over the next several years, with expected dividend coverage ratio of 1.3x in 2017 and coverage in excess of 1.1x thereafter; excess coverage will be used to reduce holding company debt over time .

    WMB looks interesting to me.  Bought some stock. Sold some Aug $25 puts.  Also sold some Aug $30 calls.


  28. VRX….fingers crossed.

    CGEN….like KITE, JUNO, BLCM…and BMS (Optivo)…they are a mAb company with Checkpoint inhibitors to various cancers and immono diseases.  Bayer is their only partner for now.  Others may follow.  Worth a small gamble for a LT hold.


  29. thx Phil.. tough call--I kind of like owning a BCS that is almost 9 points above the goal.

    Now, please make the FU portfolio (TEVA, RH, M, PSO, GNC, JO, FTR) follow AAPL's lead ;-)

    Hey, JO is doing a little better ;-)


  30. Forcast is for 58 here in Baltimore tomorrow, in the middle of January… how sweet is that


  31. Phil/SVXY in STP

    Want to press our luck here and roll the March $80 puts to the March $90 puts for $2.20.  This market keeps getting stretched higher and higher and it's going to be one hell of a snap when it goes south.  Perhaps we will see the needle move on the VIX!

    The original trade in the STP was:  long March $80 ($8.5/now $3.6)puts and short March $70 puts ($5.35/ now $2.10).


  32. GWPH finally breaking out of channel.  I have the 22 of the 2018 75 puts, and the 120/135 call spread for a net credit of .32.  Giddyup./


  33. QUIK – For anyone interested in following this small company.  Might have more info coming out today as they present at the Needham conference.

    ~~QuickLogic Announces Preliminary Q4 2016 Results & Timing of FY 2016 Earnings Conference Call.

    http://ir.quicklogic.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1007311


  34. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  35. LQMT having another big day.  Seems to pop to 0.25 every once in a while and then drifts back to 0.20.  Would be good for range play if inclined.  

    NAK, on the other hand, has left the station:

    I guess I'll need to find another penny stock to play with.  NAK has options now.  The reason they are up is they are sitting on what could be the World's biggest gold mine in Alaska but the EPA won't let them mine it.  Since the election, all signs are that the Trump EPA will say "drill baby drill" and F the environment and, if that happens, this stock is a 10-bagger from here.  Aug $1 calls are $1.40 (0.30 premium) and the Aug $2 puts can be sold for 0.75 to net 0.65, which will be great if they fly higher.  If, by Aug, they do get denied – they could go back under $1 so there is a good deal of risk but a good craps play.  

    NAK

    Jeroen van den Broek/Shutterstock.com

    This Massive Gold Project Is Doomed

    Luck/Craigs – Sometimes you get in a groove and you can see a lot of things forming up – fun while it lasts but be aware it does fade so don't get too cocky.  

    WMB/Albo – Lost $1.3Bn last year, maybe break even this year makes them tough to judge.  I'm not saying they aren't interesting if they turn around but best year this decade was $2Bn but net of $1Bn earned in 5 years for a $28Bn company is not that sexy to me.

    Year End 31st Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TTM 2016E 2017E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 6,638 7,930 7,486 6,860 7,637 7,360 7,307 7,231 7,515 +2.1%
    Operating Profit $m 801 1,596 1,612 1,375 1,569 -1,133 -1,640      
    Net Profit $m -1,105 376 859 430 2,114 -571 -1,124 161.3 787.1  
    EPS Reported $ 0.18 1.33 1.16 0.64 2.92 -0.76 -1.50      
    EPS Normalised $ 0.90 1.73 1.16 0.64 2.92 1.37 1.02 0.32 1.01 +8.8%
    EPS Growth % +146.5 +92.8 -33.3 -44.2 +352.4 -53.0 -25.2 -76.4 +213.5  
    PE Ratio x           23.3 31.2 98.8 31.5  
    PEG x           n/a n/a 0.46 3.86
    Profitability

    Williams -10% premarket as most actively traded stock

    • Williams Cos. (NYSE:WMB-10.4% as volume tops 6.1M shares ahead of the open, making the stock the most actively traded in the premarket.
    • WMB announced after yesterday's close that it would increase its dividend for the March quarter by 50% to $0.30/share and issue 65M common shares to finance the purchase of 289M units of Williams Partners (NYSE:WPZ) at $36.09/unit; WMB priced the 65M-share offering at $29.
    • WMB says it will use the proceeds from the sale to help boost its stake in WPZ to 72%; WPZ -1.2% premarket.

    FU Stocks/Jabob – It's a great value list.  

    SVXY/DC – It's either going to happen this month or it won't.  I don't think I want to DD without buying time so let's see how things hold up.


  36. Chain store sales fall below 1% pace

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+0.9% Y/Y vs. +2.4% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales +0.9% Y/Y. January sales are expected to rise +0.7% Y/Y.

    Inventories rise sharply in November

    • Nov. Wholesale Trade: Inventories +1% M/M to $595.3B, +0.9% consensus, +0.9% in Oct.
    • Sales +0.4% M/M to $452.6B.
    • Inventory to Sales ratio rises to 1.32.

    NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

    Gross: 10-year at 2.60% means bond bear market has begun

    • Forget Dow 20K, or euro parity, or $60 oil, says Bill Gross in his monthly outlook. The most important number is 2.60%, and if the 10-year Treasury yield tops that level, a secular bond bear market has begun – which naturally has massive implications for whether happiness or despair for equity investors lay ahead this year.

    Food prices in the U.K. to head higher

    • Premier Foods (OTCPK:PFODF) is in talks to raise prices with major retail customers such as Tesco (OTCPK:TSCDFOTCPK:TSCDY), Sainsbury (OTCQX:JSNSFOTCQX:JSAIY) and Wal-Mart's Asda.
    • The company says higher commodity costs and a weak pound have created the need for the hike in prices.
    • Unilever rolled out prices increases in the U.K. last fall.

    S&P 500 quarterly payouts topped $100B for first time in Q4

    • According to S&P's Howard Silverblatt, S&P 500 companies paid out $103B in dividends in Q4 – the first time payouts have ever topped $100B in a quarter.
    • Full-year 2016 dividends of $397B were also a record.
    • Silverblatt expects another record year in 2017 – the only question is whether dividend growth returns to 10% after dipping to 5% last year. What happens in D.C. with regards to tax reform/repatriation will be the key.
    • Source: Bloomberg

    Citi downgrades Goldman to Sell

    • Yes, higher interest rates should boost Goldman's (NYSE:GS) trading business, says analyst Keith Horowitz, but the path is "relatively uncertain and the bar is relatively higher" given the bank's near-40% move since the election.
    • He downgrades to Sell from Neutral. The $225 price target suggests 6% downside.
    • Also downgraded to Sell is Comerica (NYSE:CMA) after its 80% Y/Y advance. Horowitz retains Buy ratings on Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
    • Source: TheFly
    • Goldman is lower by 0.77% premarket.

    NRG Energy completes world’s largest post-combustion carbon capture plant

    • NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration say they have launched operations at the $1B Petra Nova carbon capture facility in Texas and are using the emissions to extract crude from a nearby oilfield.
    • At its peak, the facility should collect 1.6M tons/year of carbon dioxide, ~90% of emissions from NRG's nearby power plant, the largest in Texas.
    • Analysts say the facility, the largest of its kind in the world, could become a model for CO2 collection at existing power plants in China and India.
    • The U.S. Department of Energy funded $190M of the project's construction, with $250M in loans from Japan's government; NRG and privately-held JX Nippon split the remaining $600M cost in a joint venture arrangement.

    Blackstone looks to buy another division of GE

    • After teaming up with Wells Fargo in 2015 to buy most of GE Capital Real Estate, Blackstone (NYSE:BX) is in the final round of an auction to buy GE Water (NYSE:GE) for roughly $3B, the NY Post reports.
    • Private equity firms Bain Capital, and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, bidding separately, have also been welcomed to the last round.
    • GE likely needs to sell the division to gain regulatory approval to complete the $32B merger of its oil and gas business with Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI).

    Slow demand for automobiles in India

    • Automobile sales in India were crushed in December after the government banned higher-value banknotes.
    • Sales fell 19% to 1.2M units, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.
    • Domestic passenger car sales declined 8.1% to 158,617 units. Two-wheeler sales were down 22% to 910,235 units.
    • Uncertainty over taxes and incentives in India are also a factor in the tepid demand.

    Jack in the Box talks delivery and tacos at ICR

    • Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK) is presenting this morning at ICR.
    • Execs say the company expects to return $450M to shareholders through repurchases and dividends this year. Looking ahead to 2018, EPS is seen growing at a mid-teens rate as initiatives kick in.
    • Delivery service is a big topic. Jack in the Box is experimenting with delivery after seeing strong late night demand.
    • The best-selling product at Jack is tacos, according to management.
    • Jack in the Box ICR webcast
    • #ICR17

    Kona Grill announces preliminary Q4 and FY16 restaurant sales

    • Kona Grill (NASDAQ:KONA) reports Q4 restaurant sales increased 14.5% to $43.6M
    • Same-store sales decreased 4.1% for the quarter.
    • FY16 restaurant sales increased 18.5% to $169.5M.
    • Same-store sales growth of 0.5% vs. increase of 2.0% in FY15.
    • Berke Bakay, President and CEO of Kona Grill, commented, “Similar to many of our restaurant peers, same-store sales for the fourth quarter were weaker than we had anticipated as we too did not experience a post-election day sales bounce.  Weak retail traffic, inclement weather and an influx of new competition as well as continued weakness in oil-impacted markets contributed to the soft sales.  In addition, we cycled over our most difficult quarterly comparison of 2016 which made achieving positive same-store sales even more challenging.”
    • “We completed our 2016 development plans during the fourth quarter with openings in Huntsville, Alabama; Winter Park, Florida and San Antonio, Texas.  For the full year, we added eight restaurants representing over 20% annual unit growth,” he continued.
    • “In 2017, our priorities are limiting development to three restaurant openings so that we can better digest our recent high growth and ramp up four-wall margins across the entire system, dramatically lowering our capital expenditures for increased financial flexibility, and making effective use of our upsized credit facility for the benefit of all shareholders, including acting opportunistically upon our $5 million stock repurchase plan,” he concluded.
    • Source: Press Release

    Red Robin Gourmet issues update ahead of ICR chat

    • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB +3.4%) issues guidance ahead of its ICR conference presentation tomorrow.
    • The company says it expects Q4 revenue of ~$290.8M vs. $300M consensus.
    • Traffic was down almost 3% during the quarter on a preliminary look.
    • Final Q4 results from Red Robin are due out on February 21.
    • Source: Press Release
    • #ICR17

    Shake Shack spills numbers at ICR

    • Shake Shack (SHAK +0.2%) is presenting today at ICR.
    • Slides from the company indicate that 60 licensed Shacks (domestic + international) are expected to be added in 2017. Revenue of $348M-$352M is anticipated vs. $354M consensus. A Shack-level operating margin of 26.5% to 27.5% is forecast.
    • Higher labor costs are nipping at margins across U.S. stores, according to management.
    • Looking ahead, the company may start to offer breakfast sometime in the future, although there are no concrete plans yet.
    • Shake Shack ICR webcast
    • Shake Shack presentation slides (.pdf) [Warning they may make you hungry]
    • #ICR17

    Express backs guidance at ICR

    • Express (EXPR +2.7%) backs its profit guidance for Q4 and FY16 ahead of its ICR presentation later today.
    • Comparable sales for Q4 are seen falling 13% Y/Y.
    • "Our store performance continues to be impacted by challenging mall traffic trends and a more promotional retail environment. However, we remain pleased with our e-commerce sales performance, which continues to trend positively year-over-year," says CEO David Kornberg.
    • The company report  is due to report full results during the week of March 6.
    • #ICR17
    • Source: Press Release

    Illumina up 15% premarket on launch single-cell gene sequencer

    • Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) is up 15% premarket on increased volume in response to the debut of the Illumina Bio-Rad Single-Cell Sequencing Solution, enabling single-cell genetic analysis. As the name implies, the company developed the product with Bio-Rad (NYSE:BIO).
    • Clive Svendsen, Ph.D., Director, Cedars-Sinai Board of Governors Regenerative Medicine Institute in Los Angeles says, "Single-cell genomics provides the opportunity to look at stem cells turning into neurons that are lost in diseases like Parkinson's and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis with much higher accuracy."
    • Cedars-Sinai Project Scientist Ritchie Ho, Ph.D., adds, "Using the solution made it possible to detect single cells in a population that was maturing much faster than others, allowing us to produce better models of disease."
    • Product shipments will commence in early February.
    • #JPM17

    Could be my next penny stock play!  Guitammer updates on ButtKicker demand

    • Nanocap Guitammer Company (OTCQB:GTMM) announces that it added over 11.3K new "ButtKicker equipped" cinema seats for 57 new auditoriums in 2016.
    • The company says there are now more than 20K ButtKicker enabled seats in over 105 cinema auditoriums across the world.
    • The entertainment business supplier forecasts continued strong growth for 2017, saying it has a backlog of over 8.4K seats for 40 more auditoriums.
    • "2017 is looking to be an even better year and we expect to end the year with well over 30,000 ButtKicker enabled seats deployed in over 150 auditoriums," says Guitammer President Mark Luden.
    • Source: Press Release

    European Commission proposes greater privacy regulation for messaging, email services

    Alibaba promises 1M new American jobs

    • President-elect Donald Trump had a "great meeting" with Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Jack Ma on Monday, when they discussed creating 1M new American jobs in five years.
    • Some are calling the assertion a stretch, however, based on the company's definition of the goal.
    • "Alibaba will create 1M U.S. jobs by enabling 1M American small businesses and farmers to sell American goods to China and Asian consumers on the Alibaba platform."
    • Previously: Jack Ma in Trump Tower to talk U.S. jobs (Jan. 09 2017)

  37. Elections / Phil – Let's look for other people who will benefit from relaxed regulations or as it's called – draining the swamp:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/01/let-lobbying-begin

    Oil and gas firms are pressing to roll back federal regulations on drilling. Verizon Inc. and other large telecommunications firms want changes to the Obama administration’s net neutrality rules. Airlines are seeking stronger enforcement of an aviation agreement that they believe favors foreign carriers on the most prized international routes. Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp. and other defense contractors are scrambling to protect against cuts in the Pentagon’s budget….McDonald’s Corp., Choice Hotels International Inc. and other restaurant, hotel and retail companies are pushing to overturn an Obama administration decision to make it easier for unions to organize employees at franchises like McDonald’s.


  38. ~~TASR – TASER pops to highs on FCC approval of its new Axon Flex 2 HD Camera and can now officially ship the product.  


  39. Rustle – Is it time to short some TSLA ?


  40. I have another penny stock suggestion to play with, and it's one to do with the marijuana revolution now taking place across multiple states. Not on the production/distribution side, but on the all-important monitoring side crucial for law enforcement. Presenting the most-likely commercial technology for the measurement of trace-level THC presence for the purposes of assessing driver impairment:

    Cannabix Technologies, Inc. (Ticker: BLOZF)


  41. You got that right for sure, so I am leaving some gains on the table as I digest for now. Too many times getting cocky only to be schooled by the market that you never have it figured out completely. I will enjoy my big gains from this morning and for once not look at what I missed after getting out only to lose trying to get every last drop or pop! 


  42. Good morning – Great morning Post! 

    Is anyone signed up for the KimbleChartingSoultions webinar? If so, do you happen to have a link, I can't seem to find one in my emails.  


  43. Phil – NAK or NDM – It was recommended to me by Rickards – I bought 3000 of NDM at 0.98 – currently at 2.7 -will sell 1/2 when gold break $1500


  44. WMB/Albo  I have been in WMB for much of the year and have done very well selling covered calls (they have high call premiums for a div play).  They are now a butterfly play for me at $30.


  45. This market is INSANE…..   Its no fun….  I don't want to play anymore…. 


  46. Well I'm only in TF now and made $ shorting 1362 earlier getting out at 1358ish but got back in too early and am now at 1368 with a few contracts, so let the selling begin 


  47. Extended Warranty – I've got a 2011 CTSV Wagon and just left the warranty period.  Has anyone taken up an extended warranty?  I have a quote for 3yr+36k miles w/$200 deduct for $3450.  Seems reasonable. From Allied -Major Guard


  48. Great, concerns of higher rates are already having an impact on Commercial RE / just had a terminated contract.. 


  49. Latch

    How many miles do you have on it?  The biggest concern would be transmission that would justify the cost on that warranty and you should check how much that would be to repair.  If it is close to $3650, I wouldn't get it.  Most repairs are less and if you go for regular tune ups and oil changes which wouldn't be covered, you shouldn't have any real problems that would be that much.


  50. WMB – Jel, you're probably in at a much lower price.  I've followed the company for a long time.  In fact, as hard to believe as it is, I sold stock in Aug 2015 for $52 per share.  Also traded some in the teens last year.  As you probably remember, they cut their dividend from .64 to .20 last year to pay off some debt, as it seemed at the time that they wouldn't be able to raise money in the equity markets.  The stock they sold today indicates that those markets are now open to them.  Even though they increased the dividend by 50% today, I expect to see further dividend increases ahead.

    I agree with you that premiums are good on their options, which could make it a nice total return vehicle.  Hope we're right.


  51. 01crazy   Join the crowd.  Higher interest rates are changing the returns along with overbuilding in the apartment sector and worries over retail. Reits are shedding secondary and tertiary locations.  I'm working on one of those right now. 


  52. Latch / Warranty

    The prices for warranties are statistical based so if you take good care of your automobile, you are less likely to meet or exceed the costs the average statistics dictate they charge if you choose to pay out of pocket.    If you are rough on vehicles, it might be worth it.  3 years can pass pretty fast without having a significant issue with a car.      I take good care of my vehicles and just pay the repairs myself as the vehicle gets older rather than paying someone else the up front premiums to pay for it for me (with profits and mark ups for doing so)…..   


  53. Unfortunately, this was a long drawn out deal from Oct. 

    (NSA) they just closed a 60 property deal $300m recently.. 


  54. Latch / Extended Warranties

    One more thing.   Buying extended warranties are the same as buying Put Options.   Who ever sells it to you is "The House" hoping you never cash it in.    In planning to take on the repairs yourself, you are choosing to be "The House".   


  55. SLW    you can buy the stock and sell the 2019 $20 puts and calls to make almost 50% over 2 years if its over $20 at expiration


  56. BIOC….easing into a few shares.  VERY interesting technology on circulating tumor cells…. (Phil…similar to the proposal of the company you sent me).  Options are yuck…so buy 1/5 allocation.


  57. Craig – Nice plays today.  I was up at 3am PST, right before the run up in /NG and I didn't play.  My train got off track this weekend with my wifey overcelebrating her birthday.  Need to get back in the groove again!


  58. PETX     If you go to their website and read upon them, its really a hidden gem.  Thx Pharm


  59. China stocks BIDU & BABA having strong days.  

    WYNN, with their Macau connection, very strong as well.


  60. Relaxing/StJ – It's going to be chaos each time they change one of those things.  Trade wars, strikes, price hikes – all lie ahead.  

    TASR/Albo – I wouldn't think that was such a big deal.  They are just hugging the 200 dma at $25.

    BLOZF/Yo – Kind of goes against my principles to back "the man" in drug-testing.  Interesting idea though.

    That's the right attitude, Craigs.  

    Damn, look how /TF popped back.

    Meanwhile, /NQ plows up to 5,050. 

    Thanks 01.  

    NAK/Latch – It's not really about gold prices so much as it's about them getting approval and then financing to open mining operations.

    Iraq/01 – LOL, already?

    No fun/GC – I don't know, plenty of stuff to trade in and out of.  /SI is round-tripping already.  It's just bad if you are too bearish – so frustrating in that case.  

    Dollar popping back to 102 is why we're getting some commodity retraces.  

    Not honey badger though:

    Extended Warranty/Latch – You never know until it breaks and you file a claim.  I never have a car that old but we have PSE&G (our power co) insure all our appliances and they are great.  Anything that breaks they come over and fix and that's that.  They even replaced the gas jets on my Viking grill.  To me, more important than whether it saves money or not is that we just call one number to fix anything in the house and reliable people show up and we don't have to screw around with estimates. For cars, just make sure you read reviews on the web.

    Also, consider you can sell the car for $35,000 and that's enough to lease another car for $1,000/month during that period plus the $100/month you want to pay to keep the old one.  More realistically, if you see a new leasable car you want to own for $600/month – then you can drive 2 new fully warranted (and now they service them too) cars over the next 6 years for the same price as it will cost you to keep the one you have.  

    RE/01 – That was bound to happen and 3 hikes this year coming – that was just one last year.  It's been a long time since we had real rate hikes, younger people are very unprepared to deal with it.

    Speaking of real estate.  My brother has a project in Del Ray where they got 25 beachfront homeowners in a complex to agree to sell for $20M and then they have a huge, valuable space to develop (or flip it to a developer for a quick profit) and they are looking for money guys.  Just in case anyone is interested.  

    SLW/Stock – Yeah, they have great premiums to sell.

    BIOC/Pharm – Where were you last week when it was 30% cheaper?

    Biocept Secures In-Network Provider Agreement with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas

    BABA/Albo – He kissed Trump's ring yesterday – it's magic!  


  61. latch/warranty  So back in the day, like 15 years ago, when I had just one small kid, I bought cars every 6 months.  Waste of money, I know but it was my hobby.  So, I bought myself a Porsche and a extended warranty.  Within 6 months the rear main seal went on the tranny and I needed a new engine.  $13000 freakin dollars!! Because of my warranty, I paid $0 – so I am a huge fan of them.  In fact, even though my car buying has disappeared I still won't buy a car without one.  I do prefer factory warranties but there are some aftermarket ones out there that are pretty good.  If it were me, I would go online to a car club that is your model and brand – and they will have comments about your product.


  62. Phil/leasing  Well, we've dove into politics on the site so now you introduce the hotter topic of leasing – whats next, religion? haha

    But seriously, I am intrigued by your statement on leasing.  I drive a 2004 Lexus LS430 bc its a tank and still looks new – and I plan on giving it to my daughter for when she can drive.  You sound like my next one should be a lease but isn't that sort of like renting an apartment?  Or is it bc of the depreciation that you like leasing?


  63. Nice to see coffee break through the 145 resistance level. If it can hold, its due for another nice leg up.


  64. I switch cars every few years, and leasing ends up being cheaper, mainly because of the sales tax savings in California.  You only need to pay tax on the payments on a lease, versus having to pay tax on the full purchase price when you buy.  With sales tax being 9%+, this can make a big difference on an $80k car.


  65. Phil / No Fun

    You nailed it.  I"m over hedged at the moment hence the comments…..    Love doing the Butterfly Portfolio and won't give it up.   Also doing well with Silver plays and recent SCO/SUN positions.   :-) )


  66. Palotay, you are right. And also, California is one of only a few states that charges sales tax on the gross purchase price of a vehicle, not the net after a trade-in. Effectively they charge sales tax twice on the trade-in value (as we found out the hard way when we replaced our trailer a few years ago.


  67. Phil – UNG

    So my 2018 UNG play is basically flat now.  Play was for a 0.47 credit.

    -2 UNG Jan18 7P

    +2 UNG Jan18 8/10 bull call

    Would you add here at these current prices?  IB is showing the play up only 10% with UNG @ 8.18.  This is mainly due to the decay on the short legs.


  68. Yep.  Which is very frustrating for a car guy.  I've contemplated buying a used car lot, just so I can move in and out of cars without paying tax.  


  69. Is it time to move on from the LL play?  Is there better money elsewhere?  


  70. Phil,

    I'm interested in your brother's project. How can I get more info?


  71. Phil/ Well, this young guy has paid down most of my debt, and I started to downsize back in 14''. I only have one loan left, which is my PLA @ UBS. This has been a great concern, with rates moving so quickly. I'm somewhat torn given, i'm sitting in 50% cash now, (after damn near threatening to move my money somewhere else), waiting on a correction, but I am wondering if I should pay the PLA off. Even if I'm able to take advantage of a correction, the movement in rates could possibly just cancel out any gains. Basically making the last few months pointless..  

    Also, I am over allocated in Real Estate, however I have some friends back in Dallas/Austin that might be interested, if you could send info to poolsmart2001@hotmail.com  I can pass it on…


  72. Does anyone have Phils's short financial ETF idea from the other day.  Cant find it in my notes


  73. skf


  74. I was reading this article on Why Some Shoppers Abandoned Department Stores and this comment was very interesting:

    Retailers did this to themselves. Shoddy merchandising in a buckshot pattern, no real trend analysis, and treating people of color and those with disabilities as if they weren't worth the investment. I learned better at ( the real) Macy's. And if you'll read "The Nordstrom Way" you'll see what has been lost in the American retail scene. Fortunately, some still do things right. That's where I'll continue to shop. The internet did not harm the retail stores. It did, however, give a filter to the patrons…it's where we are all equal. – Marilyn Albert-Hack, President at Clayton Community Theatre

    We (middle+ class white people) don't think about the fact that minorities are subjected to stereotyping and racism when they go shopping.  For example:

    Dairy Queen Controversy: Zion Franchise Owner Caught In Racist …

    I've seen it in action plenty of times, security guards profile people and follow them through the store.  Now those people have a choice not to suffer that indignity.  I never gave that too much thought before – shopping isn't fun for everyone.  Then there's people like Tina, who buys everything on-line just because it's easier.  If they had a grocery service, she'd use that too.  AMZN certainly loses money on her free shipping!  

    I've gotten in the habit too for little thing like batteries.  As soon as I pick up the last battery or light bulb or drink my last bottle of tea, I grab my IPad and it takes 10 seconds to order something – about as much time as it takes to write it on a ToDo list yet, 48 hours later – the job is done and the stuff is at my front door.

    Cars/Hanj – My Stepfather was like that, new car every 6 months – he couldn't resist them. What do you think if Cadillac's subscription service?  You pay $1,500/month and you can take any car you want any time you want.  It's a bit much and I wouldn't want to be locked into Cadillac but if Mercedes made that offer for $1,000/month – I'd love it.  Solves the problem of needing a bigger car sometimes, a convertible sometimes and a racer sometimes.  Well, not NEED…  I could grab a Smart Car to go to NYC – that would be fun! 

    Leasing/Hanj – It suits me as 3 years is about as long as I want to own a car and, if you shop for good residual values, it's a good deal – if you are the kind of person who generally likes newer cars.  If you are happy/proud of your 14 year-old car, that's different as your net cost is low but I know I'm always done by year 3 so I have the hassle of selling it or trading it in and leasing is nice and clean.  I know a new GS leases for about $600/month – not sure how it compares to yours but that includes all repairs and service for 3 years so you're only paying $21,600 for the $50,000 car for the first 3 years of it's life. 

    Of course, if you have a business – it's also an expense or partial expense – that's another plus.  And what Palotay said – taxes saved too.

    Coffee/Den – /KCN7 is $152.

    CMG still going up – $417.

    Over-hedged/GC – Just think of how happy you'll be in a correction.  You have that to look forward to!  cheeky

    UNG/Burr – Yeah, we should have taken the money at Christmas, we knew it was too high too – just didn't think it would correct so hard.  Anyway, I'd roll the 2018 $7 puts (0.70) to the 2019 $8 puts ($1.70) as it costs you nothing to collect $1 ($200 – same net if assigned) and then you can take the 2 2018 $8 calls ($1.45 = $290) and roll them to 4 2019 $8 calls at $2.05 ($820) and sell 2 2019 $12 calls for $1 ($200) so the whole thing costs $130 and now you have another year on your original $8s and 2 more $400 potential spreads.  

    Car lot/Palotay – I was looking into a car club in NY at one time, it's an interesting business.  In NY, if you own a car it costs you $500/month just to park it (in the good parts of town) and, of course, you don't need it all the time and getting to gas stations and car washes is a pain but a car club can have, for example 100 luxury cars at $1,500/month lease cost ($150,000) and we can keep the cars in Jersey on a $10,000/month lot with 8 people ($32,000/month) who run the operation and keep the cars clean and serviced.  So we're in for about $200K/month with insurance and we can service about 300 people who pay $1,000/month for 100 use days/year.  When there's overflow we rent cars but, for the customer, they are paying $120/day to drive top of the line cars which are delivered to their door and picked up when they are done   Assuming 50 cars rented for $500/day on 20 holiday days is $500,000 – we're still making $700,000 a year.  

    What I really like about it is it's scaleable – if we can prove concept we could probably add several locations.  

    LL/Burr – It's a patience play. Years to get going again.  I'm in it because it's very likely to work.  

    Project/Japar – I'll drop you an Email.

    PLA/01 – No wonder your name is 01Crazy!  I'm not a fan of playing over my head.  Investing should be done with money you can AFFORD to put to work, not money you borrow to play with because, if you lose it – how are you going to pay it back?  I'm looking at MS and their float rate is 4.19 and their fixed is 5.587 so that's a big spread but if you are running so thin that 1% will put you in trouble – you probably should be scaling back anyway.  As to the project – it's not formal, it's one of those lightning opportunities because the stars line up and they have a first-mover advantage.  It's not the kind of thing to shop around – he needs directly interested parties who do large development projects.  

    SKF/Nom – It was in yesterday's post!  


  75. Phil    TEVA 45put…is it time to roll to 2019 spread you mentioned yesterday?


  76. TEVA/490 – Not a rush, we want to see how $35 holds up.  


  77. Woops, there go the indexes – what a silly market!  And I was just putting on my 20,000 hat again…


  78. Phil/coffee  I track it here:

     http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=KC


  79. Phil/Cadilac  I'm not a fan bc, well, its a cadilaac.  haha.  I do love the lines of the new Lincoln Continental.

    Whats interesting is my sister just bought a new Lexus suv and my 14 year old has about the same bells and whistles as hers.  When you figure that I have no car payment and I've got at least another 100k miles on it, all i pay for are tires, battery, oil and brakes.  Plus, whenever I tell someone that its 14 years old, they are like Holy Shit.  Its always garaged and I only drive about 100 miles a week, if that, since I now tele commute.  It amazes me that Lexus built a car 14 years ago that had/had adaptive cruise control.

    I love buying 2-3 year old cars from Lexus off lease – especially when its 50k miles or less.  Usually I can pick one up for 1/3 of the original cost.  My car cost close to 85k brand new back in the day.

    Cars I have owned: Saab, Jeep CJ7 – both high school and college.  Then, Audis, Volvos, Mercedes, Bmws, Porsche, Lexus, Honda, Kia, Toyota.  The best is the Lexus and the worst were the Volvos – POSs.  And they were brand new.


  80. <b>New York (CNN) —</b> If Donald Trump is lucky, he may never be faced with a market crash as gruesome as the one that welcomed President Barack Obama when he first took office in 2009.<p>Stocks, which already had plunged in 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis, continued to collapse in the first few …


  81. MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s new Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said there is “no way” his country will pay for the wall that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to build on the United States’ southern border to keep out illegal immigrants.<p>Speaking on Mexican television, Videgaray …


  82. Donald Trump will meet Tuesday with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent skeptic of vaccines for children, suggesting that the president-elect continues to believe a widely discredited theory that vaccines cause autism.<p>The meeting was announced by a spokesman for the Trump transition team, Sean …


  83. KABUL — Apparent Taliban bombers struck some of Afghanistan’s most heavily guarded sites Tuesday, setting off twin blasts near security agencies in the Afghan capital and targeting diplomatic talks in southern Afghanistan. More than 30 people were killed and scores wounded, including an Arab …


  84. Another Airline Is Offering $69 Flights to Europe

    Following an announcement by budget carrier Norwegian Air that $69 flights from the U.S. to Europe would become a reality in 2017, WOW Air on Tuesday …


  85. By Ben Levisohn<p><b>Gilead Sciences</b> (GILD) has been beaten down into value stock territory–it trades at just 7 times trailing 12-mont earnings–but so far …


  86. Copper prices climbed Tuesday after data showed inflation picked up in China last month, sending a reassuring signal about demand from the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals.<p>Copper for March delivery was recently up 2.9% at $2.6130 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile …


  87. Best Buy Cities: Where To Invest In Housing In 2017

    When it comes to balancing risk and reward in real estate, cities in the Southern half of the country look to be in the sweet spot now, as well as one surprising Northeastern metropolis, where lack of land to build turns out to be a plus. Whether your looking to put down roots with a family home or …


  88. <b>(CNN) —</b> Four thousand US soldiers have arrived in Germany as part of permanent troop rotations to Europe that the Pentagon said are meant to send a clear message to one country in particular: Russia.<p>”Russia as you know with their incursion into Ukraine, that’s something that has a lot of our allies …


  89. LAS VEGAS (MarketWatch) — Stop right there.<p>Before you invest another nickel in the Next Big Thing or in the high-tech company that’s going to “win” in the “virtual-reality space” or the “augmented-reality space” or the “drone space” or the “smart-home space” or any other future “space” — including …


  90. As a potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act looms with no clear replacement, many experts are already painting a dire portrait of what that may mean for Americans: One million lost jobs, longer workdays, and delayed retirement.<p><b>Job Losses</b><p>The repeal could result in an estimated 1 million jobs …


  91. Phil,

    CL broke 51.. now in the 50s. 

    any point when we want to consider going long for a ST reversal.


  92. President-elect Donald Trump is pushing Republicans to move forward their timetable to repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), better known as Obamacare.<p>According to a report from the New York Times, Trump told the Times’ on Tuesday that he wants the ACA immediately repealed and replaced, calling …


  93. For the U.K. economy, the good news is that following the Brexit vote, the sky hasn’t fallen as many predicted; on the contrary, it’s been a period of unexpected fair weather. The bad news is that the benign outlook is encouraging a surge in borrowing, leaving households vulnerable if the Bank of …


  94. Such drone swarms would be cheap to produce and able to overwhelm opponents’ defenses with their great numbers.


  95. Maximum wage cap: how might it work?

    The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has called for a cap on high earnings to address inequality in the UK in a radio interview<p><b>Did Jeremy Corbyn spell out how it might work?</b><p>It’s unclear exactly what Corbyn meant but in theory, a future government could legislate for a maximum wage, as it does for the …


  96. • Print<p>Hudson’s Bay Co., the Canadian department-store giant that owns Saks Fifth Avenue and Lord & Taylor, suffered its worst stock decline in more than a year after a dismal holiday season weighed on its sales forecast.<p>The company now expects sales of $14.4-billion to $14.6-billion this fiscal …


  97. (Reuters) – Citigroup downgraded Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) to “sell” citing valuation, sending its stock down as much as 1.6 percent and making it the biggest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI).<p>Citi analyst Keith Horowitz said Goldman would need an additional $4 billion of revenue …


  98. U.S. stocks have had an incredible run over the last two months and even at these record-breaking levels there are still profits to make — at least until March, when it will be time to run for the hills.<p>That’s a key message from Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, who says …


  99. General Motors Co. forecast profit will rise to as much as $6.50 a share in 2017 after meeting the high end of last year’s target, enabling the …


  100. Buyers of risky corporate bonds are starting 2017 in a precarious position.<p>They’re coming off the best year of returns since 2009, with a 17.5 …


  101. by williambanzai7 – Jan 9, 2017 9:06 PM<p>Attention Millenials: Prepare to die in Grandpa’s war…<p>This asset class is absolutely HATED: it’ss the single …


  102. Republicans wanted to be thorough about Obama’s government, but don’t care much about who Trump is choosing<p>In 2009, Republicans were adamant about thoroughly investigating each and every one of President Barack Obama’s nominees. Mitch McConnell went so far as to send a letter to then-Senate …


  103. Are you old school about your powder detergent? Are you nostalgic for grilled cheese made with cellophaned slices?<p>Grocery store aisles are dotted with staples falling out of favor as consumer habits change and new versions arrive. “It’s evolutionary,” says Susan Viamari, vice president of thought …


  104. <i>Want to start a business? If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea</i>.<p>In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper …


  105. Hanj – I'm with you.  I've been buying Lexus's coming off of leases for years.  I currently have an '04 which is in excellent condition and a newer one which I also bought coming off a lease.  I usually get 200-250k miles from each car.  Up until recently I put a lot of miles on them, and it didn't seem to make sense to lease them.  There are tradeoffs of course, but I don't mind driving an older car.  However, I would like to have the blinker on the driver's side mirror that let's you know if a car is approaching from the outside lane.  That's a great safety feature.


  106. After Fiat Chrysler on Monday became the latest of the erstwhile Big 3 American carmakers to redirect investment to the U.S. from Mexico, Jefferies …


  107. House votes to stop budget office from analyzing cost of Obamacare repeal; Rand Paul blasts GOP fiscal hypocrisy<p>After eight years of bashing Obamacare, congressional Republicans still haven’t come up with a plan to replace it. They are, however, essentially unified in wanting to stop the …


  108. It’s the beginning of the year, and as such, top analysts all over the world are making predictions about what the world will bring.<p>But not all of them merit as much attention as Autonomous Research’s Charlene Chu, one of the most brilliant minds on China and its debt issues.<p>In a note entitled ‘The …


  109. NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. crude oil production in 2018 to rise by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year, according to its monthly short term energy outlook released on Tuesday.<p>The agency said that crude production will rise to 9.3 million bpd …


  110. It’s been a decade since Steve Jobs introduced the device that would transform mobile technology. Not everyone was convinced we needed it.<p>As it turns out, history was a tough sell. On January 9, 2007, Steve Jobs unveiled the original iPhone at the Macworld Expo in San Francisco. During his two-hour …


  111. The U.K.’s surging flagship stock index broke a 30-year record Tuesday—but factoring in sterling’s collapse, the bull run conceals a far less impressive performance.<p>Britain’s FTSE 100 marked its ninth straight daily record high, a feat last achieved in January 1987. Still, a cloud hangs over that …


  112. by williambanzai7 – Jan 9, 2017 9:06 PM<p>Attention Millenials: Prepare to die in Grandpa’s war…<p>This asset class is absolutely HATED: it’ss the single …


  113. CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The next two months will show why we should “buy the rumor, sell the news.”<p>The “rumor” in this case was the speculation about what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for the economy. The “news” will kick in on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.<p>Contrarian analysis …


  114. Scottmi – CCJ having a good run today.  Do you still have it ?


  115. Technology is changing the world.<p>Yes, I know you know that. But knowing that the world is changing, and figuring out how to prepare for that change, are two different things. And it’s the latter that CEOs are focused on.<p>A case in point: Citigroup just published a big report on corporate finance …


  116. Phil

    UNG   What is the official trade

    I have 2018 5 /9 BCS

    Did I miss a change?

    Thanks


  117. Extended warranty/ I assume its a scam.  Like any insurance.  Be the house.. (if you can afford the deductible).

    Unless you are buying an Iphone for a kid.  Then if you buy the warrenty, maybe you are the scammer.

    Exception – I bought one for my new water heater – mostly because I like the service company.

    I did try Sears. (Our 40 Year old Roebuck Dryer is still going). They have a service for "same day" water heater replacement. You email them a photo of the old one and they say "in half an hour" they'll get back to you with a "same day" quote (provided you get to them before 10AM).  Took them three hours to call back and they said how about "Same week"; meaning four days.  Good luck Eddie.


  118. Cars/Hanj – Well I figure by 2020 cars will be phasing out anyway.  Self-driving cars will patrol neighborhoods and take you where you want to go.  Not good for the auto companies since most cars spend 90% of their time not being driven so even cut that to 3 hours of actual need in a 12-hour awake day and it means we could get by on 75% less cars if we shared them efficiently.  So no long-term investments in car companies! 

    /CL/Learner – I'm the guy who said back to $47.50.  There SHOULD be a bounce at $50, we'll see how API looks tonight.  Basically, we're down from $55 to $50 so $5 down is $1 weak bounce to $51 and $52 is the strong bounce and $52 just failed and right through $51 is not a good sign so they'll be lucky to get a weak bounce and, of course, if $47.50 doesn't hold – $45 is the next stop.

    /NG also needs to strong bounce or it may complete that M pattern back to $2.80.

    Honey badger don't care….

    UNG/QC – In the OOP, it's the 2018 $5/10 bull call spread with short $10 puts.  Hasn't changed since 2/12/16.  From scratch I'd sell the 2019 $9 puts for $2.25 and buy the 2019 $6 ($3)/12 ($1) bull call spread for $2 for a net 0.25 credit on the $6 spread.  

    IPhone/Rexx – I only insure Jackie's phone (my risk analysis for the family) and Maddie's broken one screen by accident but Jackie has had two different insurance carriers cancel her policy as she collected twice on each (over 5 years and 3 phones) and now we have to use AppleCare.  I must say at least 2 of those times really weren't her fault.  Most recently, we were on the log flume in California Disney and she had her phone in a bag to be safe but so much water came in our car that it got in the bag and ruined her phone – that was the end of that insurance – they sent us a new phone and a termination notice!  

    Wow, RUT ripped right back to 1,370. 


  119. Gotta love that 5% Rule:


  120. And then there's car insurance; when I rent a car I put it on my credit card.

    Which after two cracked windshields in two years I'm surprised they let me rent and let me use my credit card.


  121. Phil,

    I have a few SCO short Jan 70 calls from the old spread (plus the Feb 60/65 bcs). Today's surge surprised me to say the least. Any thoughts where I should roll the Jan 70s to – strike and month?

    Thanks in advance


  122. SCO/8800 – Well this downturn in oil should fade by June (we still have July USO calls) but SCO is at $70.30, why do anything for calls that are 0.30 in the money?  Either they expire worthless or you'll roll to more expensive short calls if it goes higher but why would you pay $3 for 0.30 of real value that expires in 10 days?  Even if SCO goes up $3, the April $90 calls are $3 now and will only be more if SCO pops higher (delta 0.27).  


  123. Phil,

    Understood – SCO. I suspect my imagination is fueling my concern (however illogical) in that if we had a $3 pop today (and yes'd) that brought us over the 50 dma, then wouldn't the odds be that the rally continues?

    Trying to arrive at a reasonable approach to risk mgt, balancing willingness to take a loss with a realistic appraisal of the situation.

    Thanks again


  124. It's not all about the charts.  $50 should be support for a bounce, a bounce will buy you time while the short calls decay.  Also, we don't expect less than $47.50, which is 5% down and 10% up would be annoying but not something you can't roll up out of.  Certainly not worth guaranteeing your short caller gets $3 from you, just to avoid a theoretical $6 loss that you can roll up to the short $90s, which would be 28% up on SCO so 14% down on oil to $43, which is very unlikely to hold as a low and, if it does, then the 2018 $180s are $4 and that's up another 100% so 50% down on oil to $21.50.  If you are worried that oil will end the year at $21.50 – THEN you should spend $3 now to avoid the possibility.  


  125. Actually, the SCO 2018 $225 calls are $3.20.  It's very hard not to sell 1,000 of them for $320,000 and take a year-long vacation.  Too bad it takes $1.4M in margin – so tempting!  

    I love that Max loss is "Infinite" – I'm pretty sure USO won't go below $0.


  126. Phil/SCO,

    really..can you actually do that trade. I doubt it will fill.

    anyways..i just clicked the send button on the image. now you can take a vacation :-) )

    regards


  127. Phil,

    Thx again for the add'l SCO perspective. Pat_S.and I should be able to handle the $320K for the short 1000 cts without blinking.


  128. NG article by Raymond James    ~We believe the single most bullish driver for U.S. natural gas prices over the next few years will be increasing exports to Mexico. While U.S. LNG exports get almost all of the attention, pipeline sales to Mexico should be a much more needle-moving near-term
    driver for U.S. gas demand, since LNG exports will not ramp up sharply until later this decade. To put it in perspective, U.S. gas exports to Mexico have grown from less than 1 Bcf/d in 2010 to nearly 3.5 Bcf/d in 2016. We project that these gas exports will more than double again to 7 to 8 Bcf/d by the end of the decade, making up one-third of what we project to be U.S. gas supply growth during this period. In this Stat of the Week, we will address the key issues driving this surge in U.S. gas exports to Mexico,
    including: 1) Mexico’s growing gas demand, led by a more gas-centric power sector; 2) Mexico’s decline in gas production, despite the opening to foreign investment in drilling; and 3) how midstream projects can facilitate further gas exports to Mexico.

    While there should still plenty of U.S. gas supply to meet this growing Mexican demand, this trend is a notable bright spot for gas prices over the next few years, particularly amid the backdrop of relatively slow gas demand growth domestically over the near term.
    It doesn’t get much press, but U.S. gas exports to Mexico have quadrupled since 2010.


  129. phil/account  You might want to black out your account number.  Having been a victim of identity theft, you'd be amazed at what one could try to do.


  130. Um…..Phil….BIOC is now at 2.48.  That is up $1 from my note above.  Zoom Zoom!


  131. Pharm – Incredible ! ! !  Followed you today at $1.50.

    Just sold 1/3 at $2.52 just to get something in the boat !

    Thank you, kind sir.  Great call.


  132. Pharm—saw the BIOC call at 1.65—-got in—--thanks


  133. Does anyone know of a platform that can Alert on a watchlist of stocks?  I'd like to create a large watchlist of 50-100 names, and setup alerts like "below the 8day", below the 200day".  I tried to find this on TOS or IB or MSN, but they don't have it.  FinViz has something like it, but it requires scripting and it's $25/mo.


  134. Burrben

    I use StocksTracker.  I don't think it will do multiple price alerts, but it's good for alerts when stocks I am watching reach my buy zone. 


  135. Burrben

    1 you can make an excel spreadsheet using TOS RTD function;  I can't quite remember where to find the syntax for different indicators (like CLOSE for closing price, 52HIGH for 52 week high…

    Happy to send you a sample excel spreadsheet.

    Note that you have to have your TOS window open for an EXCEL spreadsheet with TOS RTD functions to work.

    2 and there's this from TOS:

    "

    Alerts on Drawings

    Being alerted to market movements is essential to informed traders. With the addition of alerts on drawings, you can now be alerted on your technical analysis price points as well. You can easily set alerts on any of the Drawing Tools that can be drawn as a ray (e.g. Trendlines, Price Levels, Fibonacci’s, Regression Lines, etc.).

    Create an alert on a drawing by right-clicking on the line with which you want your alert associated and selecting “Create Alert with Drawing”.

    From the create alert dialog box, you can define your settings

    Choose to be notified when the price “crosses below,” “crosses above,” or “crosses” (in either direction).

    Choose how you want this alert to notify you by sound on the platform, email, or SMS text message to your phone.

    Associate a custom text note with each specific alert.

    Once you have created the alert you can manage it in the Alert Book under the MarketWatch and Alert sub–tab.

    Since the alert is specific to your charted time frame, the Description is noted with the aggregation period of the alert in brackets. Keep in mind you will see an icon for this alert only on the chart aggregation that was used for creating the alert.


  136. Phil,

    Are you still long /SI? I'd like to get back in but it's run away a bit. Where do you see a good entry point


  137. burrben/  Maybe easiest in TOS is (1) create a watchlist  (you can upload)  and then (2) run a scan on just that watchlist


  138. But those solutions aren't dynamic against the "meta" watchlist group from what I understand.  

    For example, each week I widdle down a list of around 150 stocks that I have on Monday.  During the week I'd like to know if any of them breach "x" number of conditions and then get a email or text alert.  I don't want to set it stock by stock.  

    I use the TOS RTD function (although it's not 100% uptime), but then I need excel to do the heavy lifting on alerts.  The drawings area doesn't help at all, that's stock by stock.

    The TOS Scan tool is interactive.  I want a alert, rather a proactive alert rather than a reactive scan.


  139. dclark –  Where is stockstracker can it alert against a watchlist?


  140. CCJ/Albo – Nice! Yes i do.. with cost at $19 so yeah,.. Really love to see it come back…!


  141. Out all day but looks like didn't miss much.. But have a True Story to share: Drove down through Seattle and stopped in at UofW to dro something off with my son, a freshman there… As i pulled into his dormitory parking garage saw an interesting looking black car just opposite of where i pulled in, couldn't quite make it out, but thought i might be one of those Mercedes "Blacks" that some kid's dad had… My son came right out and i pointed to the car which was doing a twenty point turn ot pull out of it's space and said "you've got some nice cars here".. He answered "Yeah, that's a Ferrari La Ferrari owned by some rich Asian kid..who has no idea how to drive.. right now he has a flat tire and is going to ruin his wheel,,,". Sure enough, the car pulled out with a flat rear right tire and drove out. I asked my son (who is a total car nut) if he thought someone cut the tire "No," he said, "most likely did it himself against a curb.." 

    It was a beautiful car. So easy to make up a story about how this 'rich Asian kid' came to be at UW with the car… All i know is that when i was at UW, I am pretty sure no Student, dormitory or fraternity, was parking a Ferrari anywhere near campus! 


  142. P.s. Latch, my son would LOVE a CTS-V Wagon, which he would 'slam,' and has on more than one occasion lamented their discontinuation.  He and a friend have a twitter feed called @needsmoarlow that is fairly popular with the 'lowered lifestyle' and 'life is to short to stay stock' crowd. ;-)


  143. "too short"


  144. Fwiw, As i read it over, to be more accurate. My son said "..owned by a rich asian kid.." not "some".  Ok. Goodnight. 


  145. CHICAGO — President Obama, delivering a farewell address in the city that launched his political career, declared on Tuesday his continued confidence in the American experiment. But he warned, in the wake of a toxic presidential election, that economic inequity, racism and closed-mindedness …


  146. FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Europe’s biggest carmakers are drawing on the full force of the continent’s industrial prowess to build a network of ultra-fast charging stations as they look to stoke demand for electric cars and break Tesla’s stranglehold on the market.<p>BMW, Volkswagen <VOWG_p.DE>, Ford and …


  147. Chinese local interest rates rose substantially late last year, and many bond offerings have been canceled, creating financial strain for some Chinese companies.<p>How should global investors interpret events in China, and what can they expect for early 2017?<p>Clearly, investors in China are on edge: …


  148. In her combative sit-down with the ‘Late Night’ host, Conway said Trump is ‘not aware’ of the report that states Russian operatives have compromising information about him.<p>Over the course of her time as a spokesperson for Donald Trump, Kellyanne Conway has managed to both disarm Bill Maher and get …


  149. Rising from the desert landscape what will be the world’s tallest solar thermal tower.<p>It is still under construction 250 meters high in the Negev Desert.<p>The project is made up of three plots, with a fourth planned for the future, each with a different solar technology. The centerpiece is the solar …


  150. Two big fails of /nkd 19700ish. Ripe for a third?


  151. Large-scale terrorist attacks have entered the World Economic Forum’s list of the top five global risks in terms of likelihood for this year.<p>This is the first time it has entered this table since the annual “Global Risks” report was launched just over a decade ago:<p>WEF characterises large-scale …


  152. Anti-Vaccine Activist Says Trump Wants Him to Lead Panel on Immunization Safety

    A prominent anti-vaccine crusader said on Tuesday that President-elect Donald J. Trump had asked him to lead a new government commission on vaccine safety and scientific integrity — a possibility that spread alarm among medical experts that Mr. Trump could be giving credence to debunked conspiracy …


  153. Spending months to find the perfect home in your price range, only to have your mortgage application rejected, or a home inspection turn up expensive …


  154. Uranium surged the most in more than three weeks as Kazakhstan said it will reduce production by 10 percent this year after prices slumped in 2016 …


  155. The new documentary “Command and Control” digs into the forgotten near-miss and premieres January 10th on PBS<p>Here in the US, we like to think that our nuclear weapons exist to prevent our enemies from detonating a nuclear explosion on US soil — that is, when we think about them at all. The thing …


  156. While Gundlach spoke for an hour and a half in his first webcast of 2017, perhaps his longest presentation to a general public yet, and covered many …


  157. Telemetry, an adtech outfit that specialized in detecting fraudulent traffic and was once tipped to be worth $486m plus a possible IPO, has closed its operations The Drum has learned – a development that took place in the immediate aftermath of the recent Methbot revelations.<p>Industry sources note …


  158. Jeff Sessions, in His Own Words

    Mr. Sessions, the nominee for attorney general, has been a consistent voice for conservative policies for nearly two decades in the Senate.


  159. Black lawmakers to speak out against Sessions in hearing

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general, Sen. Jeff Sessions, used strong words in the first day of his Senate confirmation hearings to deny any hints of a racist past. On day two, a group of black lawmakers will speak out against his nomination — including New Jersey Democrat …


  160. <i>Sign up to receive the Brexit Bulletin in your inbox, and follow @Brexit on Twitter.</i><p>The U.K.’s financial industry began 2017 as it finished 2016, …


  161. <b>Morocco has banned the sale, production and import of the burka, according to local reports.</b><p>Letters announcing the ban were sent out on Monday, giving businesses 48 hours to get rid of their stock, the reports stated.<p>There was no official announcement from the government, but unnamed officials told …


  162. Trump’s HHS pick faces calls for probe of stock trades

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be the nation’s top health official is facing calls for investigation of whether his stock picks were guided by insider knowledge gleaned as a senior member of Congress.<p>Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., was chosen by Trump in part because of his plan …


  163. Russia waging information war in Sweden, study finds

    Swedish Institute of International Affairs accuses Russia of using fake news and false documents to influence opinion<p>Sweden’s most authoritative foreign policy institute has accused Russia of using fake news, false documents and disinformation as part of a coordinated campaign to influence public …


  164. Thousands urged to flee ahead of flooding California rivers

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Authorities urged thousands of people in Northern California to evacuate homes as rivers swollen by four days of heavy rain threatened to crest above flood level, even as another day of showers was forecast for Wednesday.<p>About 2,000 people in Wilton, a rural California …


  165. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, discusses U.S. corporate earnings, equity valuations and his investment strategy with …


  166. Burrben/StocksTracker 

    It is an app you can get.  I got it from Itunes. May or may not do what you want.  I would read the reviews.  It sounds like you would do a lot more than how I am currently using it.


  167. Lawsuits over Trump business threaten to tie up presidency

    WASHINGTON (AP) — As a businessman, Donald Trump has kept the courts busy. That’s hardly likely to change when he enters the Oval Office, creating an unusual and potentially serious problem for a sitting president.<p>Only a handful of presidents have undergone legal depositions during their terms, and …


  168. As of January 1, all trains in the Netherlands now run entirely on wind power (that is to say electricity generated by wind farms, not masts and sails).<p>An Eneco and NS joint website proclaimed that the 100 percent wind-powered train network can provide carbon-neutral travel to 600,000 daily …


  169. • <b>European bourses mixed as markets await Donald Trump press conference</b>• <b><br>FTSE 100 stalls in its pursuit of 7,300</b>• <b><br>Investors shift focus to the press conference of President-elect Donald Trump</b>• <b><br>Hong Kong stocks enjoy fifth day of gains</b>• <b><br>Pound steadies after slumping to two-month low</b><p>8:42AM<p>Hong Kong stocks up …


  170. Jim Justice—6 feet 7 inches, 375 pounds, rumpled in the extreme—has the friendly, shambling demeanor of a high school basketball coach, which he’s …


  171. City figures attack Labour leader’s idea that bosses should not earn more than 20 times the wage of their lowest-paid worker<p>Jeremy Corbyn’s idea for a maximum wage cap has been branded unworkable but the Labour leader’s focus on tackling the pay gap between bosses and workers was given a warmer …


  172. 9-point checklist for long-term investors

    Here’s a 9-point checklist for long-term investors. Learn how you could grow your money over time.<p>Someone won a $540 million Mega Millions lottery …


  173. As the Dow Jones industrial average continues to linger around 20,000, Jim Cramer turned to the charts to find out if the rally can continue.<p>To find …


  174. <b>Prosecutors in the US have accused three former currency traders at major banks of trying to rig foreign exchange (forex) rates in the banking industry.</b><p>The three are Richard Usher, Rohan Ramchandani and Chris Ashton,<p>They worked at, respectively, the banks JP Morgan, Citigroup and Barclays.<p>The …


  175. GOP concerns about deficits, debt disappear in Trump era

    WASHINGTON (AP) — For decades, congressional Republicans have pushed to slash the budget and reduce the size of the federal government, especially during the eight years Democratic President Barack Obama was in office.<p>Now that Republican President-elect Donald Trump is poised to take charge, …


  176. For years, American Apparel proudly touted its “Made in Los Angeles” motto. With its sale Tuesday to a Canadian sportswear firm, neither American Apparel’s name nor its motto will ring sotrue.<p>Gildan Activewear agreed to pay $88 million in a winning auction bid for the American Apparel brand and …


  177. The National Cancer Institute launched an effort Wednesday to speed up clinical trials by getting researchers quicker access to the drugs they want to test.<p>The NCI initiative creates a virtual “formulary” — a kind of clearinghouse — that initially will include 15 different medications donated by …


  178. WASHINGTON — Senior intelligence and law enforcement officials will testify on Tuesday for the first time since the release of a declassified report on Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, appearing before a Senate committee four days after the findings were described to …


  179. What Trump doesn’t know about Alibaba’s jobs pledge

    Alibaba founder Jack Ma’s visit to Trump Tower this week wasn’t just the latest example of a foreign business leader cozying up to the …


  180. Paolo Gentiloni has canceled a visit to London<p>ROME—Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni has had an angioplasty—an emergency surgical procedure to clear an obstructed coronary artery—his spokeswoman said.<p>Mr. Gentiloni felt ill late Tuesday, after returning from an official visit to France.<p>His …


  181. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is set to become Italy’s biggest nationalized bank since the 1930s after its failure to raise funds on the market …


  182. Fact Check: More Jobs (+15.7M), Rising Middle-Class Incomes (+$3K), Lower Deficit (-2/3rds)That’s the true story of the Obamacare Economy. But unless …


  183. Russia on Wednesday denied it has compromising material on Donald Trump, calling a dossier of unverified allegations an “absolute fabrication” and an attempt to damage U.S.-Russian relations.<p>Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the report, which claimed that Russia has material that could be …


  184. Another wrinkle in the notion that the weaker pound will mechanically boost UK exports: it turns out that imports swelled by some £3.3bn in the month …


  185. UK construction output disappointed again in November, unexpectedly contracting for the second month in a row.<p>Seasonally adjusted construction …


  186. BuzzFeed Posts Unverified Claims on Trump, Stirring Debate

    BuzzFeed News became the center of a swirling debate over journalistic ethics on Tuesday after its decision to publish a 35-page document carrying explosive, but unverified, allegations about ties between the Russian government and President-elect Donald J. Trump.<p>The document, a dossier prepared by …


  187. LONDON (Reuters) – The price of digital currency bitcoin slid around $50 on Wednesday after China’s central bank said it had launched spot investigations on bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai in order to fend off market risks.<p>The investigation of bitcoin exchanges, including BTCC, Huobi and …


  188. Monetary Policy and Inequality<br>Pedro Amaral <br>Cleveland Fed,01.10.17<p>This <i>Commentary</i> examines the link between monetary policy and income and wealth …


  189. Looks like that US Caliphate is on hold…<p>Get your brain and liver to beautiful Marfa, Texas, June 16 -18, 2017, and we’ll all just see what …


  190. BEIJING—China’s government said its leader would signal at a global forum next week that Beijing supports multilateralism and is a responsible global power, as the incoming Trump administration strikes a different tone.<p>President Xi Jinping will emphasize China’s support for global cooperation and …


  191. Oil companies are preparing to ramp up spending this year as the recovery in crude prices gives them confidence to revive some of the projects …


  192. The so-called Exorbitant Privilege of the United States, the power to conjure the world’s primary reserve currency, is reflected in the unique …


  193. The Asian oil products market is heading into the first quarter of 2017 with gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel/kerosene poised for some weakness after …


  194. Congress’ actions could lead to market failure in the health care field<p>This article was originally published on The Conversation.<p>There’s a joke among insurers that there are two things that health insurance companies hate to do – take risks and pay claims. But, of course, these are the essence of …


  195. Climate change is still, somehow, a controversial subject. This video not only makes climate change understandable, but it also explains the root of …


  196. dclark – Very helpful info.  Thank you.


  197. A paper presented this past weekend at the annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations in Chicago offers a new take on an increasingly …


  198. The Path to $10,000 Bitcoin

    January 11, 2017<p><i>So let’s imagine a scenario in which tens of trillions of at-risk wealth suddenly seek an alternative--any alternative to staying in</i> …


  199. After months of promises and rumors of asset sales that went unrealized, Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inc. finally answered doubters and creditors on …


  200. Burrben

    Your welcome.  I hope it helps.  


  201. Russian intelligence alleged to have compromising material on Trump Unverified reports were drawn up by western ex-counter-intelligence official<p>Senator John McCain passed documents to the FBI director, James Comey, last month alleging secret contacts between the Trump campaign and Moscow and that …


  202. Good morning!  

    All flat as we await the Trump press conference.  Above article from the Guardian is best overview of current Trump scandal.  This stuff is real folks – no matter how you slice it, Trump is Russia's candidate, whether wittingly (and with Trump, the wits are very much in doubt) or not.  It doesn't matter though as it's harder to prove than Global Warming or that vaccines don't cause autism and Trump supporters don't believe those things either.  

    SCO/Pat – You COULD make the trade.  The biggest problem is that, if SCO does jump up to "just" $100, the margin on the short calls would go so high you might be forced to liquidate at a loss – even though you are still a mile from an actual loss.  Sometimes, when there are drastic moves, brokers also raise the margin requirements for ultra-ETFs with little or no notice.  

    /NG/Latch – I wasn't aware we were sending so much to Mexico.  Imagine what a surplus we must have since that has not had any drawdown effect on our storage levels. 

    Account/Hanj – That ship has sailed from the Webinars, not my main account, of course.  

    BIOC/Pharm – Amazing – great call.

    Alerts/Burr – I don't know if you can customize it but, before I rejected TA I used to use Trade Ideas, which I think was the best dma tracking system out there.  At the time, they would simply scan the market and feed you the best set-ups but maybe now you can customize.  

    /SI/Japar – Only with SLW.  I took the money on /SI as we tested $16.50 and missed my chance to get back in so I'm hoping for a pullback.  If gold goes over $1,200, I'll call that a line to play silver (probably $17).

    CCJ/Scott, Albo – At least w got those short puts in in the LTP but never got the bull call spread because we lost faith.

    Lambo/Scott – And that's why they can charge $40,000 a year for tuition.  If Americans won't pay it, there are plenty of foreigners in the Top 1% who will.

    19,700/Burr – Do you mean 19,500?  Dollar is rising (102.50), so not a good day to short /NKD.


  203. Wow, volume really sucks:

    Date Open High Low Close Adj Close* Volume
    Jan 10, 2017 226.48 227.45 226.01 226.46 226.46 61,045,000
    Jan 09, 2017 226.91 227.07 226.42 226.46 226.46 46,265,300
    Jan 06, 2017 226.53 227.75 225.90 227.21 227.21 71,559,900
    Jan 05, 2017 226.27 226.58 225.48 226.40 226.40 78,379,000
    Jan 04, 2017 225.62 226.75 225.61 226.58 226.58 78,744,400
    Jan 03, 2017 225.04 225.83 223.88 225.24 225.24 91,366,500

    We may soon be the last humans left actually trading the market!

    Meanwhile, I doubt oil will hold the weak bounce at $51 off this report so /CL is a good short below that line

    The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 1.5-million-barrel build in its latest data release on Tuesday afternoon. The build to crude inventory sent oil prices downward, even though a build, although more modest, was expected. Analysts had forecast a 1.2 million-barrel build.

    Shocking the markets further was a gasoline build of 1.7 million barrels, which although not a huge figure by itself, is tough to swallow combined with last week’s massive 4.25-milllion-barrel build, which was largest build in gasoline stocks in a year.

    Distillates also climbed by 5.5 million barrels, after last week’s 5.24-million-barrel build.

    Markets will now look to substantiate this afternoon’s API release with tomorrow’s EIA inventory report.

    Russia just said the unverified report paid for by political opponents is "A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FABRICATION, UTTER NONSENSE." Very unfair!


  204. Well, as long as Russia said so, right?


  205. Oh no, this is way too many specifics!  

    Can't wait for the inauguration!  


  206. Phil –  Thanks, found that last night.  How much was it? 

    /NKD.  I mean 19700.  If you look back to 1/1/17, it hit 19700 twice and fell off.


  207. Phil – /CL.  Do you think it could go below 50?


  208. Burr. Phil has 47.5 as a likely stop and even $45  he mentioned it yesterday