Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.
UPDATED: 01/12/17 as noted below in bold and underlined
Following up on our Wild Card Weekend projections, all match up stats in Yards Per Attempt, provided by Pro Football Reference. All times Eastern. Last week…
OAK 14 @ HOU 27; our pick OAK ATS +3.5 and SU. ATS 0-1; SU 0-1
Both QB’s will struggle and he who makes the fewest mistakes? A +23 differential for OAK in that respect, sloppy teams lose and we see da Raiders headed to Beantown.
A 3rd string rookie making his first start and schizo O-line doomed OAK. When TOM (turn over margin) is a sloppy 3-0, you lose. The Texan D and a limited ground game 123yds on 44 attempts, did the heavy lifting. Such luck awaits in Foxboro?
DET 6 @ SEA 26: our pick SEA -8 ATS and SU; ATS 1-1; SU 1-1
After starting 1-3, then streaking 8-1 over a collection of trash teams, the Motor City Kitties finished 0-3 to NYG, DAL and GB while backing into the #6 seed. Since Week 11, Kitties avg rushing 75 yds and they will have to air it out vs Squawks D.
Squawks dominated the trenches with D, allowing the Kitties to scratch out only 239 yds, and on the ground, 177 yds vs 49; TOP 36 min vs 23; 3DC 9-16 vs 2-11. Migrating South to a strange nest will be a test.
MIA 12 @ PIT 30; our pick PIT -10 ATS and SU; ATS 2-1, SU 2-1
Last 11 games, the Dolphin defense gave up an average 136 rush yds. Over that same period the Steelers have averaged 160 yds per game on the ground. In Week 16 the sliced sushi defense allowed the Bison 272 rushing yds.
Frozen Sashimi QB Moore 1 int, sacked 5 times, 2 fumbles did not help. PIT dominated with D and on the ground 179 vs 52. Big Ben 2 ints on only 18 passing attempts. The Chefs may not be so accommodating.
NYG 13 @ GB 38; our pick NYG +4.5 ATS and GB SU. ATS 2-2; SU 3-1
A 2-3 GI-Ant team who have since gone 9-2. Excepting the Pokes, said win streak was against some dubious competition. Both teams can air it out, the only offensive difference is the Giant’s anemic ground game.
Both were anemic on the ground at 75 yds and NYG lost TOM 2-0. Pack controlled the ball in the air, TOP 34 vs 25 mins; 362 yds on 40 atts, but allowed 5 sacks. Jerry’s Kids get after Mr. Rodgers next. This week…
Saturday 4:35PM FOX
#3 SEA Seahawks (Road 3-4-1) @ #2 ATL Falcons (Home 5-3)
Weather: Dome Perfect
Spread ATL -4.5 OU 51.5
ATL Offense Run #5 4.6; Pass #1 8.2 Sacked 37 TODiff +11
SEA Defense Run #1 3.4; Pass #15 6.2 Sacks 42
SEA Offense Run #24 3.9 Pass #9 6.8 Sacked 42 TODiff: +1
ATL Defense Run #26 4.5 Pass #12 6.2 Sacks 34
A game of contrasts, Falcons D is porous, Squawk defense is stiffer and especially tough in the back 7. Squawk run game has been anemic, Falcons have one of the best balanced firepower O’s. Falcons finished 7-2, with losses at PHI and vs KC.
These two met Week 6 at the Squawk nest with SEA barely winning 26-24. ATL WR Julio Jones torched the Squawk secondary 7-139yds. SEA D was busy gettin after Private Ryan, 4 sacks, 8 penalties, with TOM 2-0 being the difference as SEA cashed in for 10 points.
Dirty Bird’s last 3 on the ground 258, 152, 142, not gonna happen vs #1 run defense, they must air it out. All Pro safety Earl Thomas is out this time. Squawk ground game should see some light vs #26 run D. TOP and TOM will be the key to this matchup.
Setting our line: ATL -6 + -3pts at home nets ATL -9. Under their domed nest, with a week of rest, our under priced home fav pick ATL -4.5 ATS and SU.
Saturday 8:15PM CBS
#4 HOU Texans (Road 2-6) @ #1 NE Patriots (Home 6-2)
Weather: 23F brisk cloudy, Rain 8%, Wind 5mph
Spread NE -15.5 OU 44.5
NE Offense Run #25 3.9 Pass #3 7.5 Sacked 24 TODiff: +12
HOU Defense Run #13 4.0; Pass #4 5.8 Sacks 31
HOU Offense Run #19 4.1 Pass #30 5.2 Sacked 32 TODiff -7
NE Defense Run #8 3.9; Pass #8 6.0 Sacks 34
The Texans are 9-7 with a -41 pt differential, a horrible turnover ratio and vanishing ground game, last 3 reg sea 79, 95 and 46 yds. Last 6 games the Minutemen have allowed 64, 36, 42, 58, 111, 75 yds rushing. TO Differential +19 for NE.
Week 3 in Foxboro, NE 27 HOU ZERO with 3 TO’s. Brady was 11-19 for a season low 97 yds, because the Pats ran for a season high 185 yds on 39 atts. Last year, Ostweiler’s Broncos beat Brady, these Texans are not last years Broncos.
Update #1: As brought to our attention by an astute Naybob in the comments, Brady was still serving his suspension in Week 3. 3rd string QB Jacoby Brissett gets the credit for that season low 97 yds passing. This only makes it seem worse for the Texans this week. The Pats remind me of the 80’s Niner’s, doesn’t matter who is starting, just plug in another part, as they are a winning machine.
Setting our line: NE -11.5 + -3pts for home nets NE 14.5. This could be ugly and over by the half, our pick college line home fav NE -15.5 ATS and SU. Beware the garbage Texan TD to lose by only 14.
Sunday 1:05PM NBC
#3 PIT Steelers (Road 5-3) @ #2 KC Chiefs (Home 6-2)
Weather: 35F, Cold, Humidity 97%, Rain 61%, Wind 7mph
Spread KC -2 OU 44.5
KC Offense Run #16 4.2; Pass #16 6.5 Sacked 32 TODiff +16
PIT Defense Run #19 4.3; Pass #11 6.2 Sacks 38
PIT Offense Run #15 4.3 Pass #8 6.8 Sacked 21 TODiff +5
KC Defense Run #24 4.2 Pass #16 6.3 Sacks 28
The last 11 games, the Steelers have averaged 160 yds per game on the ground. Since Week 11 KC defense has been porous, especially against the run.
Update #2: Mea culpa, these two met Week 4 in Steeltown. The Chefs were held to 87 yds rushing and lost on TOM 2-0 in a 43-14 humiliation.
Following this PIT went 1-4 then got on a 8 game tear, not counting their vacation on week 17, PIT rush defense: 33, 91, 56, 67, 76, 122 and 52.
Since that humiliation, Chef’s went on a 10-2 tear, losing AT HOME to the hot TB Pirates in Pewter Pants and TEN Tuxedos. Chefs ground game last 3 out, 157 TEN, 238 DEN, 103 SD.
Chef’s Coach Reid and QB Smith do well during the regular season, but this is money time where they don’t do so well. Tomlin and Big Ben are money.
Setting our line, KC -1 + -3 for home nets Chefs -4. The Riveters make Chef stew and stay on a title game tear to Beantown with our road dog pick PIT +2 ATS and SU.
Sunday 4:40PM FOX
#4 GB Packers (Road 4-4) @ #1 DAL Cowboys (Home 7-1)
Weather: Dome Perfect
Spread DAL -4.5 OU 52
DAL Offense Run #3 4.8; Pass #5 7.1 Sacked 28 TODiff +5
GB Defense Run #14 4.0; Pass #30 7.1 Sacks 40
GB Offense Run #7 4.5 Pass #17 6.4 Sacked 35 TODiff +8
DAL Defense Run #11 3.9 Pass #14 6.2 Sacks 36
Last week: In the NFC, watch the GB Sausage Packers, the potential of facing Mr. Rodgers and his O-line has the DAL Pokes (aka Jerry’s Kids) defensive coordinator sweatin like a priest at a preschool.
Week 6 the Pokes clubbed the Pack like a harp seal on the tundra 30-16 with 233 pass and 191 rushing yds as the Packers also lost TOM 4-2. Despite winning their last 6 vs HOU, SEA, CHI, MIN, DET, NYG; the Pack allowed those offensive “juggernauts” 400 yds avg.
Expect Jerry’s Kids top ranked O to go well over that number. Setting our line: DAL -4 + -3pts for home nets DAL -7 Mr. Rodger’s might be hot, and could make it close, but the Pokes are balanced and at home. Our pick underpriced DAL -4.5 ATS and SU.
Update #3: Four rematches, NE still at home, the other three changing venue. IMHO, although the games may be closer, only the Dirty Birds being at home in the dome, will change any of the regular season outcomes.
We were in a bit of a rush which caused the previous oversights in our Natterings. Not very Naybob like, so we humbly apologize.
