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$20 Trillion Tuesday – S&P 500′s Mind-Blowing Valuation

Image result for corporate tax revenues 2015$20,000,000,000,000!

That's a lot of money.  They claim the forward p/e of the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 is only 20 –  based on growth expectations, tax breaks, etc.  That would be $1 TRILLION in earnings for just 500 companies and the S&P 500 is about 1/3 of the total US Markets so $60Tn and $3Tn in earnings for our mighty US stocks is very nice.  

Why then, do these companies pay just $341Bn in taxes?  That's only 11%.  Why is it the top priority of the Trump Administration to LOWER Corporate Tax Rates so they can pay less and you can pay more.  Why are we providing stimulus to Corporations, why are we taking away their regulations when they are underpaying their taxes by 66%?

So congratulations to the S&P 500 at 2,300, crossing the $20Tn threshold – I guess the average American would be doing very well too – if they only paid an 11% tax break, got massive stimulus packages, 0% interest loans and were bailed out by the Government whenever they screwed up.  Big Government is a bad, bad thing – unless it's your Sugar Daddy.  Sorry kids, Uncle Sam already has 500 dependent children he's taking good care of, he can't be bothered with 320M of you!  

Well, you can't fight the tide (believe me, we've tried) so you may as well join the party and BUYBUYBUY the companies that benefit from our Nation's Generosity and, best of all, if we hold them for a year – we only get taxed 20% on those gains (soon to be 15% again – thanks Uncle Donald).  

Image result for trump infrastructure planWhat?  You are not rich enough to invest in equities?  Well, go away then – didn't you hear, we won the election – the country decided and now it's PARTY TIME for the Top 1%!  Soon the Trump administration will begin selling roads and bridges and water systems to private companies who will "tax" the living crap out of you with tolls and fees so they can "recover their investment" in the roads and bridges that were built with the taxes you (not they) paid.  It's friggin' BRILLIANT!  

So stop being a lazy taker and get rich so you too can be the one taking the tolls instead of paying the tolls.  We had our Live Trading Seminar in Las Vegas yesterday and we added Secretary Rex Tillerson's Exxon (XOM) to our Long-Term Portfolio along with Qualcom (QCOM) and Supervalue (SVU) and also added Cognizant Technology (CTSH) to our Butterfly Portfolio.  

Of the 4, XOM is the most heavily traded so I don't mind telling you how our Members are playing it, our Top Trade Idea was:

  • Sell 5 XOM 2019 $80 puts for $8.50 ($4,250)
  • Buy 10 XOM 2019 $70 calls  for $15.20 ($15,200)
  • Sell 10 XOM 2019 $85 calls for $6.25 ($6,250)

Net on this $15,000 spread is $4,700 so potential upside is $11,300 (240%) and ToS says $3,500 in margin so it's pretty efficient.  

See how the rich get richer?  We don't care how much inflation the administration causes or how high they drive the price of oil to enrich their buddies because making 240% returns on cash over less than 2 years will buy us a lot of gas.  XOM is one of the companies that should benefit from tax reductions.  Last year, mean old President Obama made them pay $5.4Bn on $22Bn in earnings – an outrageous 20%, leaving them with just over $16Bn in profits.

Image result for exxon profit potentialNow that President Trump is in charge, the oil XOM sells has already jumped 50% in price and much of that drops straight to XOM's bottom line because it's the exact same oil from the exact same wells produced by the exact same number of workers – they are just charging you a lot more for it!  Isn't that great?

Speaking of oil, I apologize that yesterday morning's call to short Oil Futures (/CL) at $53.50 only yielded gains of $700 per contract and not the $1,000 per contract we were hoping for.  Fortunately, oil is climbing back to $53.50 this morning and we can give shorting another chance – still looking for $52.50 or lower at some point this week.  

If you missed out on quick and easy $700 gains yesterday, perhaps you should re-think your decision not to spend $3/day to subscribe the PSW Report (what you are reading now and lots of other PSW stuff) and have it delivered to your mailbox, unlocked, every morning pre-market.

As you can see from the chart, Oil Futures (/CL) are back to $53.40 so just one short contract here, hitting our goal at $52.50 would be enough to pay for an entire $995 Annual PSW Report Subscription and then the other 240 trading days a year would just be profits – isn't that cool?

XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation daily Stock ChartThe XOM trade above will make $11,300 on each set so just one set of spreads is enough to pay for 2 years of a Basic Membership and, if it doesn't, let Greg know it didn't work and you can get a 50% discount on your renewal.  All XOM has to do is go up $2 in two years – we're pretty confident in that one with Trump in charge and his Secretary of State being XOM's former CEO.  I don't want to say the fix is in but…

SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. daily Stock ChartAnother fun trade we're watching is Silver (/SI), which we like long over the $18 line with tight stops below.  We're looking for $19, which would be $5,000 per contract gained there.  Silver Wheaton (SLW) is our Trade of the Year for 2017 on the premise of rising silver prices and, as you can see, if you weren't a Member and didn't read our "Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges for 2017", then you already missed out on a 30% run in less than 60 days but Silver still has a long way to go (and don't even ask how much we made on those futures!).  

That SLW trade was a spread with a net cash outlay of $350 and we promised at least a double on that one but we missed by a mile as it's already net $3,485, just shy of a 900% return on cash in less than two months.  Still, the potential for the spread is $7,500 – so it can still double from here.  Even the scraps our Members leave behind are better than other people's best ideas!  

So, S&P $20Tn, $25Tn, $30Tn – bring it on!  We can always roll our cash into more and more inflationary bets and if we're making 900% in two months – I'm sure we'll stay ahead of inflation – at least until the Dollar completely collapses.

Have I mentioned how much I like Bitcoins lately?

(Kidding – it's still CASH!!!).

 


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  1. Phil/AAPl  Thank you!!  I once met an advisor who specialized in creating tax losses hahaha.  


  2. Good morning.


  3. Have to draw more lines angry


  4. Good Morning.


  5. These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/02/nsa-may-be-withholding-intel-president-trump

    ….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence from the Oval Office. Why risk your most sensitive information if the president may ignore it anyway? A senior National Security Agency official explained that NSA was systematically holding back some of the “good stuff” from the White House, in an unprecedented move.

    And I wonder what Trump sent to Putin for Valentine's Day.


  6. Good morning.  I am little concerned with AAPL June callers.  Have the following

    20 '19 100/130 BCS at net 15.04

    -8 Jun 115 C at net 7.94

    -4 '19 90P at net 7.00

    Any suggestions on how to roll them up


  7. Happy Valentine's Day!

    Lacker just said rate hikes sooner than later are needed.  Game back on for /TF shorts!  

    Unfortunately, it popped oil higher – or maybe something else did.



  8. Let us know when u DD on /cl. I have 1@53 now and I'd like 1@53.75


  9. Hang – I guess no one read the end of that article!


  10. Another reason for the oil pop could be the BAT (Border adjustment tax) proposal


  11. A new phrase from the MSM – FlynnPeachment – I like it!


  12. You're welcome Hanj.

    Yellen starts with Congress at about 10.

    AAPL/Ross – We talked about various strategies for that over the weekend.  It's a 1/2 cover (not even) so little to worry about.  $130 is a very fair value for AAPL and your short $115 callers ($19.50, down $9,248) are protecting your theoretical $30,000 gains on your long spread (and the $2,800 from the short puts). So, with $32,800 to protect – is it so bad to have $9,248 worth of downside insurance?  

    Since the $115s at $20 have only $1.50 in premium, I would roll them ($15,600) up to 12 short July $130 calls at $8.50 ($10,200).  Keep n mind, you already collected $6,400 on them so you are just rolling the loss and pushing the short calls into 5/8 permium with a 10% higher strike.  If that seems drastic to you – just sell 4 of the short July $130s and put a stop on 4 of your short calls if they go over $20 – that's like a posthumous roll!

    Thank you oil is more like it, very happy to add more off that "news".  Good catch by Burr on the end of the article:

    Many analysts say oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year.

    "Based on OPEC’s own numbers the message is loud and clear," said Tamas Varga, analyst at London broker PVM Oil Associates.

    "Improve on compliance, cut production further and extend the deal for the second half of the year if you want to avoid yet another year of global oil inventory builds."

    ABN has reduced its average Brent price forecast for the first half of 2017 from $55 per barrel to $50 per barrel, "while allowing for a possible temporary dip toward $45 per barrel".

    /CL/Burr – I'd see how it goes at $53.75, that's 1.5% and might fail so 1 there gets you to $53.375 for 2 and then easy to DD to get over $53.50, which was our shorting target.


  13. Phil. Call Reuters and put out a counter piece. 


  14. I posted this chart yesterday during the webinar:

    Crude 020817

    There is no reason for oil prices to go up. There is really no place to store it anymore. We are down to buckets and oil delivery trucks now!


  15. ? Michael T. Flynn’s resignation as national security adviser prompts calls to redouble investigations of Russia contacts.<p>? President Trump names Lt. General Joseph Keith Kellogg Jr., a retired Vietnam War veteran, as interim security adviser.<p>? More White House resignations from the Flynn national …


  16. Ivanka Trump has shared a photo of her sitting in the president’s Oval Office chair along with a message about “the importance of women having a seat at the table”.<p>She sat in the middle of her father and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, tweeting she had “a great discussion with two …


  17. Why you shouldn’t<p>Maybe don’t employ reporters who call the First Lady a whore?<p>The dam disaster bears many similarities to Katrina as research reveals …


  18. The Most Powerful Brands In 2017

    Lego, the maker of the plastic toys you probably played with as a kid, has been named the most powerful brand in the world. Every year consulting firm Brand Finance releases a list of the strongest brands, and Lego took the top spot for 2017.<p>Brand Finance’s most powerful brands ranking is …


  19. Housing markets in the western part of the United States remain hot. Data released on Tuesday by brokerage firm Zillow showed eight of the 10 hottest US markets are located west of the Mississippi River. Additionally, five of the markets are within the state of California.<p>”The overall recovery has …


  20. With U.S. stocks at record highs, investors are fretting whether this nearly eight-year-old bull market has much life left in it.<p>Because the future can’t be predicted, maybe it’s best not to think about it.<p>Thus, we have compiled a list of stocks that have turned out to be long-term winners — and …


  21. NEW DELHI — India’s rapidly worsening air pollution is causing about 1.1 million people to die prematurely each year and is now surpassing China’s as the deadliest in the world, a new study of global air pollution shows.<p>The number of premature deaths in China caused by dangerous air particles, …


  22. Being long oil is a very “crowded trade,” but who’s on the other side of that trade, and what do they know that speculators don’t?<p>“Crowded trade” is an infamous phenomenon. It’s when traders are all betting on the same direction of a trade. But each trade must have someone else betting on the …


  23. Sugar traders are bracing for a wild ride.<p>While most analysts forecast a return to surplus in the 2017-18 season that starts in October, many are …


  24. I wonder if the huge builds last week was a setup for this week. If there are smaller builds then use it as a reason to really spike to 55


  25. Ross Following up on Phil's remarks on AAPL you still have 1.13 $ of premium left in you Jun. caller. AAPL can not only go up they could go down as well. June is still more than 4 month away! Possible have a look at my write up on GIS the other day, this will give you a good idea how Leaps can work for you against shorter call sales.


  26. Kim Jong Nam, the brother of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, has been killed at an airport in Malaysia by “poison needle-wielding” North Korean agents, according to South Korean media.<p>Kim Jong Nam was considered as the heir-apparent to Kim Jong-un.<p><i>More to follow.</i>


  27. The 802.11ax Wi-Fi standard is set to replace the current 802.11ac standard in the next few years. Though its specification hasn’t yet been finalized, Qualcomm has already announced a pair of chips that would be compatible with 802.11ax Wi-Fi solutions, should little change from the already …


  28. Toshiba chairman resigns over huge nuclear business loss

    TOKYO (AP) — Toshiba Corp.’s chairman resigned Tuesday after the company logged such massive losses in its nuclear business that it must sell its lucrative computer-chip business to avoid going belly-up.<p>The company projected a 712.5 billion yen ($6.3 billion) loss for its nuclear business related …


  29. SINGAPORE — In the brave new world of smart homes, Dyson thinks it’s got a way to get a leg up over the competition: artificial intelligence.<p>The British tech giant has just invested some $412 million in a new research facility in Singapore, and sees it as a big piece in a future where “everything …


  30. Like most of you, I don’t like to lose money. So you might be wondering why I was so quick to scoop up more shares of <b>Gilead Sciences</b> (NASDAQ: GILD) stock after its latest earnings report. After all, management shared a forecast for 2017 hepatitis C antiviral sales 39% lower than 2016 figures, and …


  31. Counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway’s assertion that former national security adviser Michael Flynn enjoyed “the full confidence of the president” just hours before he offered his resignation is proof that President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager is “out of the loop” and acting …


  32. An eerie sense of calm pervades the markets. I say “eerie” because some familiarity with market history can cause observers to view the market’s calmest moments with suspicion.<p>A recent piece by financial adviser and commentator Ben Carlson noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) hadn’t experienced down day of …


  33. On the Ground in Oroville

    <i>Good morning.</i><p><i>(Want to get California Today by email?</i> <i>Here’s the sign-up</i><i>.)</i><p>With thousands of people fleeing areas downstream from Lake Oroville amid warnings of catastrophic danger, my editor thought it would be a good idea for me to do the opposite.<p>So early Monday, I drove from my Sacramento-area …


  34. The US news media are suffering from low levels of public trust and ongoing attacks from the reigning Republican party and White House. US president Donald Trump has called journalists “among the most dishonest human beings on earth,” saying he’s in “a running war” with them. Chief White House …


  35. <b>For those not familiar, the reference is attributed to a scene from the movie “Margin Call”</b> where John Tuld (Jeremy Irons) makes the sanguinary …


  36. SEOUL, South Korea — The estranged half brother of Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, was assassinated in Malaysia this week, the South Korean news media reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified government source.<p>The half brother, Kim Jong-nam, 45, was killed by two women who attacked him with …


  37. When the ruling family decrees that a quarter of all journeys in a city state will be autonomous by 2030, someone somewhere is obliged to make that start happening as soon as possible.<p>In Dubai, that person is Mattar Al Tayer, chairman of the city’s Road and Transport Authority. He said Monday that …


  38. Maybe don’t employ reporters who call the First Lady a whore?<p>The dam disaster bears many similarities to Katrina as research reveals a culture of …


  39. OCLR up big again today.  Covered some with Mar $11 calls.


  40. SunPower: What To Be Expecting

    SunPower reports its full fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, February 15.<p>Despite mixed news over the quarter, the stock is up roughly 14% since 3Q.<p>…


  41. In early February, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals pulled the plug on an initial public offering that it hoped would bring in $150 million to boost the development of a drug to treat opioid addiction. It had just announced the IPO two weeks earlier, about the time that Donald Trump was sworn in as …


  42. The Russian ruble is climbing

    The <b>Russian ruble</b> is climbing.<p>The petro-currency is up by 1.1% at 57.3548 per dollar as of 7:49 a.m. ET.<p>Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is up by 1.1% at $56.19 per barrel.<p>”Fundamentals in Russia remain strong, but oil remains the main driver,” argued Morgan Stanley’s James …


  43. BERLIN (AP) — Germany’s economy expanded at a slightly weaker pace than previously expected at the end of last year, causing a downward revision to the overall eurozone’s growth rate as well.<p>The Federal Statistics Office said Tuesday that gross domestic product rose by 0.4 percent in the fourth …


  44. In early 2016, if you told me the following 5 things has or very will could happen in 2017, I would never come close to believing it or think you were on drugs or the biggest moron:

    Trump would be President

    I would be able to take my first position in GILD at 66.15

    TSLA would be the the largest US car company

    NFLX would have a bigger market cap than TWX

    AMZN could be 1000 with one good earnings qtr


  45. Phil and Yodi / AAPL  Thanks. 


  46. It is difficult to determine which is the most significant market concern coming out of the European Union. While mainstream eyes appear focused on …


  47. Mnuchin oversaw a bank that has been accused of breaking a number of laws.<p>Steve Mnuchin, former Goldman Sachs partner and CEO of mortgage lender …


  48. Keon Hardemon, Art Falcone, Dan Kodsi, Nitin Motwani, Miami Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, Audrey Edmonson are seen at the Miami Worldcenter & Paramount Groundbreaking Ceremony on March 3, 2016 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Alexander Tamargo/Getty Images for World Satellite Television News)<p>Imagine if …


  49. U.S. wholesale prices jumped in January by the most since September 2012, led by higher costs of gasoline and indicating inflation is beginning to …


  50. ShutterstockLove is apparently not in the air. Valentine’s Day spending is expected to drop 7.6% this year to $18.2 billion from last year’s $19.7 billion, according to the latest annual survey form the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics. It turns out that 9% fewer people …


  51. Per CNN and the Washington Post and as already reported on Kos:<p>The Justice Department warned the Trump administration last month that Michael Flynn …


  52. In Bookends, two writers take on questions about the world of books. This week, Charles McGrath and Siddhartha Deb debate which classic dystopian vision rings truest at the beginning of 2017: George Orwell’s “1984” or Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World.”<p><b>By Charles McGrath</b><p><i>Was Orwell right after all?</i> …


  53. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen heads to Capitol Hill this week for two days of so-called Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, named for the 1978 law that required it. She will start at 10 a.m. EST Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, by delivering her monetary policy report and prepared …


  54. NEWARK, Del. (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will likely have to raise interest rates more rapidly than financial markets currently expect given that any new policies by the Trump administration, while uncertain, will force the Fed’s hand, a hawkish central banker said on Tuesday.<p>Since the election …


  55. The head of the Richmond Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that the central bank should lift its benchmark lending rate more rapidly than Wall Street …


  56. Wallets can be lost, stolen or forgotten, but most people today wouldn’t be caught dead without their phones.<p>Banks understand, and are grabbing on to that trend. Customers who don’t want to fumble around in their wallet for their A.T.M. card — or who have misplaced it for the umpteenth time — will …


  57. Airbnb Inc. is on a mission to be more than a home-sharing platform. It wants to be a flight booker, an itinerary planner and a vacation-home …


  58. Credit Suisse Group AG posted a fourth-quarter loss of 2.35 billion francs ($2.34 billion) after taking a charge to settle a U.S. investigation into …


  59. If you’re wondering which sector is set to take off in 2017 (and who isn’t?), look no further than real estate investment trusts (REITs).<p>I’ll get into why I’m so bullish on REITs—and name 5 great buys now—in a moment.<p>First, let’s look at the sector’s recent performance, and what it says about where …


  60. Policies to shield inconvenient truths from political interference are not in place, experts say.<p>It won’t be easy for Congress to get rid of the …


  61. The nation most identified with its massive oil reserves is turning to wind and solar to generate power at home and help extend the life of its …


  62. The raucous crowd wasn’t pleased with the Utah Republican dodging her question.<p>Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) has had a rough couple of weeks. Earlier …


  63. The pound’s post-Brexit vote downturn is nowhere near done yet, and the UK’s currency could fall by as much as 16% more, according to one of Deutsche Bank’s most senior staff dealing with foreign exchange.<p>Speaking to Bloomberg TV on Tuesday morning Deutsche’s global co-head of FX research, George …


  64. Our new president has surrounded himself with a phalanx of white men whose racial views are deeply troubling<p>Donald Trump’s administration is built around a brain trust of white nationalists. To deny that fact is to ignore a crucial element of this national crisis: America’s “greatest generation” …


  65. Forget about Donald Trump. The global reflation trade may have another driver that proves to be more durable: China’s rebounding factory prices.<p>The …


  66. Republican members of Congress are feeling a bit under siege right now. Their office phones won’t stop ringing, and their town hall meetings are mobbed by people angry about health care, the travel ban, various Donald Trump cabinet officials, and more.<p>Their reaction? Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz …


  67. Scottmi/pacb. I got a whopping 100 shares done. Very strong today. Not going to chase it. Well done!


  68. rustle – you're up 2.6% on GILD – congrats! I think I'm averaging about 83 :(


  69. Reuters/Burr – Slippery slope, right?  

    5 Things/Rustle – It's a brave new World.

    Yellen has been talking for 30 minutes and has said NOTHING!  

    Oil back down and /NG climbing – who needs poker?

    Nikkei needs to get with the program:


  70. If this happens…and it is very close to happening, I would fight the Right To Try Law all the way.  This is absolutely terrifying to me.  This was part of my concern with HHS Price.  

    With regard to giving experimental drugs to children outside of clinical trials, I said: “These children are dying, what is the difference if they receive these drugs or not, there is no downside.” A pediatric oncologist responded, “If you had seen, as I have, children with cancer being given experimental drugs who were 'tortured' by the drugs as they died, you would not be so cavalier.”  


  71. biodiesel – just holding it long term in my IRA and reinvesting dividends.  Have DIS at 75 in that same account reinvesting over last few years and AAPL at 91 also.  Bought those in the IRA so when the market starts to tank can sell them and buy them back hopefully much cheaper and not have to worry about any tax consequence.


  72. silver wallopped along with bonds.. schemeissed she must be saying something


  73. Scott/Hanj/ PACB

    Filled:   sold 10 SEP 5 puts at .87  Order out for more at 1.00  See how it goes.


  74. CTSH

    Not even close to filling the ctsh Phil talked about yesterday.

    Anyone fill?


  75. PACB/Hanj – glad you got your 100 share stake. ;-)   I tried to enter (more) with Sept 2.5 calls but no fill. Gerry, pick a stop and don't be shy about using it. This little company is purely speculative, and this play is entirely technical.  


  76. Phil/OPB  Yeah baby.  Too bad I only own 1000 shares at 21.02

    Scottmi/PACB  Talked to my trader – he says 90% of the volume are crosses ie HFT BULLSHIT!  Thats the second stock this has happened to me on.


  77. Scottmi/PACB  break and close above 5.39 and you are off the races.


  78. PACB/Hanj – and bail if it loses 5.20..


  79. SVU/Phil – can you elaborate when you have the chance on why you like them enough now to make a play? different company than what it was.. rotated to wholesale model and went from 1500 retail stores to under 200. Nice to see they have been paying down debt and not buying stock (just a little bit issued). Margins are thin, gas prices maybe going up eat what's left?  I know people gotta eat and so maybe the 'space' is secure, but still the competition is still there that took their retail away, no?


  80. Russia secretly deployed a cruise missile that violates a crucial arms treaty but Trump will blame it on Iran.


  81. CTSH    somebody is trading really big in the Jan18 puts and calls 


  82. Iran just discovered a large oil reserve too. Other reason we're going in there


  83. NLY/Phil – earnings tomorrow, interesting drop this morning — last 4 days gain on just ~20% of the volume (of the 4 days).


  84. PSEC – been on a strong run since earnings last week, with good volume, too.


  85. Nice move down in oil.  I'm short one at 53.66.  Put a .10 trailing stop on it just now.


  86. GOP Senators are now calling for an investigation into connections between Trump and Russia and want Flynn to testify.  About time.


  87. SVU – Sched 13G filed today shows Conan Laughlin, individually (6.9%), and his fund North Tide Capital  now have just under 19% of SVU stock.


  88. Scottmi – Yes, PSEC has been on a tear, and still yielding over 10.5 %. 

    Another income stock I own, TICC has also been on a tear.  Up from the 5's last June when I suggested it, and still paying almost 15 %.


  89. Phil with weather forecasts showing 50-60 degrees next week all over, is NG now done? 


  90. Scottmi/pacb. If i can ever get filled i will give it to a close below 4.99. A backtest and fill to the breakout level is expected and would be healthy. 


  91. Oil hitting $53, you have to fight for those $500 gains!

    /NG round tripped, chance to load up again at $2.90.

    Right to try/Pharm – Yes, I really thought the idea of human experimentation went out with the Nazis but now they are trying to bring it back as US policy.  What ever happened to morals?

    /SI/Angel – That's why the tight stops matter on that one.  

    CTSH/Butterfly, Gerry – Have to be patient, slow fills on that one.  It's right in the range at $57.59.  I sold the April puts for $2.10,  while demoing yesterday, no problem.  The calls are too low and no action on longs yet.

    OPB/Hanj – You must love roller coasters:

    OPB Opus Bank daily Stock Chart

    SVU/Scott – They are transition to a wholesale operation so why is that a bad thing?  It seems to be where they make the most money.  They now have 1M digital account customers who downloaded 12M coupons and they've been gearing up on-line shopping and home delivery systems.  Their theory is people don't need supermatkets to shop since a significant portion of their customers like to order on-line without going into the stores – so why have so many stores?   Their $11M loss included a $24M non-cash  adjustment to their pension program and a $9M goodwill charge – I can forgive them for that and, clearly, it's a one-time thing.  Also, they excluded Save-A-Lot from the pro-formas as they are being sold off (because they want good comps next year).  This company gets called dead every couple of years and every couple of years we buy them and make a double.  Just giving them another shot.

    NLY/Scott – Well, as I said – overpriced.

    Good stop move Palotay.

    /NG/Criags – Well I cashed at $2.95 and I'm back in at $2.90 so we'll see.  As I said at the seminar, I'm now looking more to establish my July longs.  /NGN7s are coming in at $3.20.


  92. TSLA – Got the 3/31 BPS $295/$270 for $12.50 making it a nice 2 for 1 deal; though I have neither the fortitude nor margin to short the calls.

    I went out longer because the prices were actually better, and because I have noticed, at least for monthlies, the prices seem to pin wherever it costs me the most money. Hoping that doesn’t hold true for weeklies.


  93. Vix below 11. If u watched my video from yesterday good time to buy a /vx and sell a call spread in Vix. When I get home I'm gonna price it. 


  94. /kcn7 @ 148


  95. phil/OPD  I love short term trades after a stock has gotten unfairly hammerred and theres a gap.


  96. Another 20% and AMZN will be $1000.  Why not?


  97. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  98. Re-evaluating Crude Oil Speculative Positioning

    California faces dam crisis

    • Evacuation orders for 188,000 North California residents remain in effect today as engineers work around the clock at America's tallest dam.
    • "It would be a massive blow to the state's water system if they lose Oroville," said Peter Gleick, a water researcher at the Pacific Institute.
    • The big worry doesn't center on the dam itself, but that a collapse of the spillway could cut into the hillside and lead to a "cascading failure."

    Stocks Soar To Record-est Highs Despite VIX & Crude Warnings

    Lacker: Next hike should come sooner rather than later

    • Richmond Fed boss and noted hawk Jeff Lacker unsurprisingly wants the next rate hike to take place at the FOMC's next gathering in March.
    • In addition to the normal arguments of strong employment numbers and inflation getting close to 2% target, Lacker cites the potential for substantial fiscal stimulus as another reason to boost rates as soon as possible.

    Yellen: 'Unwise' to delay on rate hikes

    • In prepared remarks ahead of Senate Banking Committee questioning, Fed Chair Janet Yellen doesn't say a March move is a done deal, but does say it would be "unwise" to delay further tightening as this would mean more rapid rate hikes down the road.
    • Roughly flat ahead of her remarks, the 10-year Treasury yield is now higher by 4.75 basis points to 2.481%.
    • Questioning is about to get underway. Live feed here.
    • TLT -0.85%TBT +1.7%

    Dollar, banks on the move as Yellen leans hawkish

    • Testifying before the Senate this morning, Fed Chair Janet Yellen says it would be "unwise" to delay on rate hikes, thus suggesting a move in March could be more likely than previously thought.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 6.7 basis points to 2.50%, and Fed Funds futures are pricing in slightly more hawkish Fed policy for the remainder of the year.
    • Also notable was lack of much mention of regulation in Yellen's opening remarks. There had been thought that Yellen would use the opportunity to push back against Trump administration and congressional calls for a sizable rollback of Dodd-Frank and the stress test regime.
    • Welcoming news of higher rates (and no news yet on regulations) is the financial sector: (XLF +0.7%), (KBE +1.2%), (KRE +1.3%)
    • Bank of America (BAC +2%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.2%), Citigroup (C +1.5%), Goldman Sachs (GS +1.2%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2%), Regionsl Financial (RF +1.8%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.2%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.5%), PNC Financial (PNC +0.8%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.6%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.7%) MetLife (MET +0.8%), AIG (AIG +0.8%)
    • The dollar (UUP +0.4%) has also moved higher since Yellen took the stage.

    Chain store sales stay in sub-1% trend

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+0.9% Y/Y vs. +0.7% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales through February 11 +0.8% M/M.
    • Redbook expects February sales to increase 1.2% Y/Y and 0.8% M/M.

     

    RetailMeNot on the fly after revenue guidance pleases

    • Shares of RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE) perk up after a comfortable earnings beat from the e-commerce operation.
    • Total website visits were down 12% to 18.9M in the quarter, while mobile unique visitors were flat at 23.1M.
    • Looking ahead, RetailMeNot expects Q1 revenue of $62.5M-$71.5M and adjusted EBITDA of $7.5M to $11.5M. For the full year, the company sees revenue of $296M-$326M vs. $295M consensus.
    • Previously: RetailMeNot beats by $0.06, beats on revenue (Feb. 14)
    • SALE +15.64% premarket to $10.35.

    Producer Price Index

    NFIB Small Business Optimism Index hits highest level since December 2004

     

    Trying to kill a U.S. border tax

    • Chief executives of some of America's largest retailers, including Target (NYSE:TGT), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Gap (NYSE:GPS) and Autozone (NYSE:AZO), will head to Washington tomorrow to make their case that an import tax would raise consumer prices and hurt their businesses.
    • Best Buy has even circulated a flyer to lawmakers, which cites an analyst forecast that a 20% tax would wipe out the company's projected annual net income of $1B and turn it into a $2B loss.
    • Not everyone is unhappy. A group of major exporters including Boeing, General Electric and Pfizer have formed their own coalition to support the import tax.

    WTO challenge to U.S. border tax?

    • The EU and other U.S. trading partners have begun laying the groundwork for a legal challenge to an American border tax proposal in a move that could trigger the biggest case in World Trade Organization history.
    • Should the U.S. ignore a WTO ruling, as Trump has threatened in the past, it could lead to the unraveling of the international system designed to prevent global trade wars.

    Report: China's announced steel capacity cuts were fake

    • China's claims last year of steep cuts in its steel capacity were mostly fake, as many of the plants the government said it had closed were already idle, production was restarted elsewhere, and new plants were opened, according to a new report by Greenpeace East Asia and Chinese consultancy Custeel.
    • China’s steel industry actually saw a net increase in operating capacity in 2016, the report concludes; if true, the news could further strain China’s trade relations with the U.S. and the European Union, which have repeatedly accused China of dumping cheap steel abroad and damaging their own steel industries.
    • Potentially relevant tickers: XMTAKSNUESTLDSLX

    Cameco upped at BMO on improved uranium outlook; uranium stocks surge

    • Cameco (CCJ +3.6%) is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with an $18 price target, bumped up from $17, at BMO Capital, citing an improving uranium price outlook.
    • BMO also believes CCJ’s supply contract dispute with Tepco will be resolved through arbitration, a negative for near-term cash flows but an outcome that may provide a cash boost in the future.
    • The firm also highlights Kazakhstan’s decision to cut output by 10%, signaling that the country state-owned uranium giant will do whatever it takes to support prices.
    • Uranium names are broadly higher in today's trade: URA +2.6%, UEC +5.1%, UUUU +6.3% URRE +9.3%, DNN +3.8%, URG +4.6%.

    Northern Dynasty's Pebble deposit "not commercially viable," Kerrisdale says

    NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. daily Stock Chart

    • Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK -28.9%) plunges nearly 30% after Kerrisdale Capital Management, in a report published on Seeking Alpha, says the company's shares are "worthless" and the Pebble deposit "is not commercially viable."
    • NAK has soared more than 300% since election day on hopes that a more mining-friendly EPA will allow the Pebble project to move forward, but Kerrisdale says the political risks remain immense and the economics are an even bigger hurdle, as mining Pebble would require so much upfront investment that it would actually destroy value.
    • Kerrisdale believes NAK’s former partners concluded that the Pebble project had a negative present value, an assessment the company has spent years trying to conceal from public.

    Freeport halts production at Indonesian copper mine

    • Freeport McMoRan's (NYSE:FCX) Indonesian unit says it has halted production of concentrate at the Grasberg copper mine and has begun to send workers home.
    • FCX previously said it would need to cut production to ~40% of capacity if it did not get a mining export permit from the government by mid-February, due to limited storage.
    • Although the government said last week it had issued the new permit, FCX said no agreement had been reached on the terms that were "necessary and critical" for its long-term investment plans, and that an export ban remained in place.

  99. Toyota crosses milestones with global hybrid sales

    • Toyota (TM) announces today that it recorded more than 10M cumulative sales of hybrid vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) as of January 31.
    • The latest milestone was achieved just nine months after total sales reached 9M units at the end of April 2016.
    • Toyota crossed over 3M cumulative hybrid sales in North America at the end of 2016.
    • "Hybrids remain an important part of our lineup of vehicles, with over 246,000 units sold last year, and we have seen continued demand with the release of the RAV4 Hybrid variant of the popular compact SUV, accounting for nearly 13 percent of its total sales volume in 2016," notes Toyota NA exec Bob Carter.
    • Source: Press Release

    Carnival starts to ring the register on Cuba business

    • Carnival (NYSE:CCL) announces that Cuba has granted approval for its Carnival Cruise Line brand to begin sailing to Cuba starting in June 2017.
    • The company says it will offer a full series of sailings in 2017 after it made history in May 2016 as the first U.S. cruise company to sail to Cuba in over 40 years with the Fathom brand.
    • Carnival Cruise Line plans to deploy Carnival Paradise for a series of 4- and 5-day voyages out of Port Tampa Bay in the second half of this year.
    • Carnival Cruise Line says it's now accepting bookings for its sailings that include a visit to Havana in 2017.
    • CCL +0.25% premarket to $56.60.
    • Source: Press Release

    Kate Spade jumps with takeover bids imminent

    • Kate Spade (KATE +5%) is expected to see the first round of takeover bids this month, according to dealReporter.
    • PE firms are expected to have the most interest in the retailer.
    • Shares of KATE are at their highest level of the year off the M&A buzz.

    Mattel and Alibaba to partner on toys

    • Mattel (MAT -1%) announces that it formed a strategic partnership with Alibaba (BABA-0.8%) to sell toys to Chinese consumers.
    • The deal gives Mattel closer access to Alibaba's 440M active buyers across various e-commerce platforms, while Alibaba gets a crack at some of Mattel's iconic brands.
    • "The multi-billion dollar toy category in China is highly fragmented, with tremendous potential for growth. Working with Alibaba, we see a terrific opportunity to develop and lead the category," says a top Mattel exec.
    • Mattel and Alibaba will begin product development immediately, with initial availability planned for mid-2017.
    • Source: Press Release

    'LEGO Batman' out-darkens 'Fifty Shades' at box office

    • The LEGO Batman Movie spanked Fifty Shades Darker in the box office's pre-Valentine's weekend, while a fellow newcomer with Keanu Reeves was no slouch in a strong few days for films.
    • LEGO Batman (TWX -0.5%) drew $53M to surpass Fifty Shades Darker's (CMCSA+0.8%) $46.6M. The Fifty Shades sequel opened with about $40M less than the comparable weekend for the first film in 2015, which turned into a surprising hit for Universal.
    • Meanwhile, LEGO Batman's take was just about $16M less than the opening for 2014's The LEGO Movie, which went on to gross $469.2M worldwide.
    • Reeves action film John Wick: Chapter Two (LGF.A -0.1%LGF.B -0.5%) settled in at No. 3 with $30.4M, well ahead of No. 4 film Split (NASDAQ:CMCSA) with $9.5M. Split grew its cumulative domestic take to $112.5M.

    Analysts: Verizon's unlimited play a bad omen for sector

    • All four major U.S. wireless carriers dropped today in the wake of Verizon's return to offering unlimited data plans, and analysts tend to agree that the move will mess up economics for all of them.
    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ) shares fell 0.9% today, while AT&T (NYSE:Tdropped 1.8%, Sprint (NYSE:Sslipped 1.3% and T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) — a net taker of customers from Verizon that emphasizes its unlimited pricing -- fell a full 2.4%.
    • Reactions to Verizon's plan note its expense (more so than T-Mobile or Sprint) and aggressive speed throttling after users pass a data cap (common among carriers' "unlimited" plans).
    • Evercore has a Hold rating on Verizon, and notes that throttling users at 22 GB in a month and at 10 GB of hotspot use is an "incremental negative for all carriers." The move will be accretive to ARPU at first, says Vijay Jayant, but dilutive in the long term as customers' bills stay put even as usage rises.
    • Instinet's Jeffrey Kvaal reiterated a Neutral rating and says the move may be a "nail in the coffin" for revenue growth: "For T-Mobile and Sprint, the potential for reduced top-line growth is less of a concern as investors focus on Adjusted EBITDA and FCF. AT&T and Verizon, however, must pursue growth outside the industry." And while AT&T is counting on DirecTV and Time Warner, Verizon's flat guidance suggests a need for inorganic options.

    BMO Capital Markets reissues Alphabet at Outperform, models 6M Pixel units for 2017

    • Estimating Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL) to have sold 900K Pixel units in Q4 2016analyst Daniel Salmon calculates 6M shipments for the current year, a figure that is calculated to represent approximately 0.4% smartphone market share.
    • Views the device as contributing to $4B in revenue for 2017, $5.4B in 2018 and adding 3.8 points to the company's total growth rate, while noting expectation for Pixel to come in overall at breakeven to mildly profitable (subsequent market expenses).
    • While Alphabet doesn't provide concrete Pixel numbers and although still young in life cycle, should these estimates accurately reflect sales, they would most notably be in compare to Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL78.29M iPhones sold in its most recent quarter alone.

    Amazon.com ponders move into premium TV channel

    • Amazon.com (AMZN +1.1%) has made video distribution a key selling point for its Amazon Prime subscription service, and now the company has bigger designs, according to the New York Post: taking on premium channels like HBO and Showtime (CBS +1.4%).
    • The company's in early stages of building a new paid channel with high-end programming, a model very much like HBO (TWX -0.5%), the paper says That channel would also help gather the growing number of first-run shows that Amazon is developing on its own.
    • Sources told the Post that Amazon's awards-season prestige this year is fueling the development. Amazon Video became the first streaming service to draw an Oscar nomination for an original picture, Manchester By the Sea, which Amazon acquired for $10M.
    • “In a few years, you’ll see an Amazon channel like HBO,” one employee tells the Post. “We’re looking at being a global news and media company. There are key people working on it.”

    Amazon moves into video conferencing

    • Amazon Web Services (NASDAQ:AMZN) is taking on Skype (NASDAQ:MSFT), WebEx (NASDAQ:CSCO) and GoToMeeting (NASDAQ:CTXS) in videoconferencing, pushing deeper into in the productivity-application market to broaden its appeal to business customers.
    • The new service, called Chime, lets users host video meetings and share content on computer and mobile-phone screens.
    • It's available on Windows, Mac, iOS, and Android.
    • Previously: Amazon.com ponders move into premium TV channel (Feb. 13 2017)

    Apple market cap back at $700B

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has reclaimed its throne as the only $700B publicly-traded U.S. company, riding a post-earnings rally and a more favorable outlook on Wall Street.
    • Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the stock on Monday, citing Apple's 3-D sensing technology, while UBS released a note stating the market is undervaluing the firm's services business.
    • The last time Apple broke above the $700B level was in February 2015.

  100. from Phil Huber:

    Roses are red
    Gartman is long
    Which means you go short
    Cuz he's always wrong


  101. Phil// What is the suggested trade on SVU?  Thanks.


  102. Rookie - Look at yesterday's post.


  103. SVU/Rookie – The one from yesterday's post?  Let's see, I'll go to yesterday's post and do a CTRL-F for SVU and, ah, here it is.  

    • SVU Sell 50 2019 $3.50 puts at 0.70 ($3,500)
    • SVU Buy 50 2019 $2 calls at $2.20 ($11,000)
    • SVU Sell 50 2019 $3.50 calls at $1.35 ($6,750)

    That's net $750 on the net $7,500 so upside is $6,750 (900%) at the current price and the margin on ToS is only $2K so nice, efficient trade. 

    Anything else I can get for you?  devil


  104. Spicer doing a press conference – they should just use Melissa McCarthy from now on.


  105. Hanj – I agree with you when gaps appear in good companies.  I've recently played QCOM, and ANET, for example.


  106. Shorting RUT at 1395


  107. ARNA/Pharm – appointed three new directors. Familiar with any of these guys? Positive for stock?

    ~~Effective February 13, 2017, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board from eight directors to eleven directors and appointed Drs. Jayson Dallas, M.D., Oliver Fetzer, Ph.D., and Garry A. Neil, M.D., effective immediately…

    Dallas, CCO Ultragenyx: http://www.ultragenyx.com/about/management/dallas/
    Fetzer: CEO SGI: http://www.syntheticgenomics.com/portfolio-item/oliver-fetzer-ph-d-mba/
    Neil, CSO Medgenics: http://www.aevigenomics.com/c/company/seniormanagement.php


  108. Stopped out of NG at 2.889 from 2.9


  109. Another day another move up in the markets.

    Back to normal(ish) tomorrow but today I have to run to the airport – hopefully I can check in from there. 


  110. latch, might be the wiser move.  next support looks like 2.85 to me.  i'm still stupidly hanging in.


  111. This is a helluva bull market.  Some of my dogs are barking –  i.e., VRX, SHLD, TWTR.


  112. ALBO – no kidding. even CCJ is poking it's nose back up, like it's pretending to be something viable. what do you think will come first for it: 15 or 9?


  113. I gotta say that SNL- Spicer skit is really funny.


  114. Dunno.  Good question. :-)



  115. ARNA…..not interested.  No matter what.


  116. Pharm..  PETX lawsuit?  


  117. PETX Lawsuit….why, because they delayed manufacturing…???  Non issue.


  118. Skydive Dubai – for the bucket list?
    https://safeshare.tv/x/cIyVNoY3_L4#v


  119.          Friday morning  2/10              Tuesday afternoon close

                                    Op Interest         Open  Interest           today’s daily change

    Mar’17                  328,293                                 241481                  -37,227

    Apr’17                   310,924                                 398162                  +49,891

    May’17                 204,546                                 225381                  +8,318

    June’17                259,585                                 257909                  +  532

    Jul’17                   102,768                                 112121                  +2,504

    Only three trading days left ! ! !


  120. albo – we discussed SWKS a few weeks ago – are you in any BCS? or own outright stock?


  121. With that much open interest on oil, according to the BOOK OF PHIL, we should see a significant price drop. 


  122. Lerner – Mostly out of SWKS at this point.  Would look at it again on a pullback.  Am more positive on the fiber optic stocks than on the cellphone component suppliers, although they've had quite a run and I'm not inclined to chase them.  In fact, I covered some AAOI today which is up another 2.5+ today. 


  123. OOPS !  Sorry Learner, not Lerner.


  124. thanks albo


  125. denlundy – thanks ,, is there something similar for /RB? can you send a link?


  126. There must be 4 trading days or maybe that number is wrong – never seen them dump that many per day.  


  127. Phil – Last Friday you stated that last day was the 21st and Monday is a holiday.

    If we count Tuesday the 21st, its 4 days.


  128. Phil,  You are front running Buffet on Monsanto (puts), AAPL(bcs).  :)

    Buffett boosts airline bets, buys Monsanto and Sirius XM

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) discloses a new near-850K share stake in Monsanto (NYSE:MON), according to its just-filed 13F. Shares are higher by 1.25% after hours.

    There's also a new near-750K share position in Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI). Shares are higher by 2.5%, and a boosted bet on airlines with a more than 2M share stake in Southwest (NYSE:LUV), and increased holdings of Delta (NYSE:DAL) and American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL). LUV +1.1%, DAL +0.75%, AAL +1.75%

    Exited are stakes in Deere (NYSE:DE) and Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI), and positions in Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) were lowered.

    Other adds include: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK).


  129. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-coffee-idUSKBN15T2LV

    BOGOTA Coffee exporters in Colombia, the world's top producer of washed arabica, are bracing for a possible truckers strike in the coming weeks, just seven months after they last blocked highways and sent coffee exports plunging by 60 percent.


  130. Latest Release  Feb 14, 2017

    Actual  9.940M  Build

    Forecast 3.500M

     


  131. so lunar, you now know that when I sell , I ring the bell on the bottom. SAD!


  132. Procter & Gamble +4% on report of big Trian stake

    The majority of the roughly $3.5B stake was picked up this quarter, according to CNBC's David Faber.

    Nelson Peltz may speak with company management at some point, but reportedly has not yet done so.

    PG +4.25% after hours


  133. In TOS, the /CLH7 contract has 7 days.

    In IB, the CLH7 last trading day is Feb 21.

    Phil, any thoughts on the API build?  Makes sense that it would drop more, but whoever said "sense" and "oil market" is homeless right now.


  134. So it does look like the oil contract expires next week, As I got my email from ToS saying that positions need to be liquidated by close of business on Monday. Usually they give me two days, so not sure if it is Tuesday or Wednesday that it actually expires.

    I have been loading moving trucks today in Boca Raton finally clearing out my mother in laws art and furniture 5 1/2 years after her death. She didn't want to leave her second husband in an empty house but because he was 15 years older, they never anticipated this long a wait. Life lesson;never make assumptions about your mortality.

    Because of this I was able to be really patient with my futures trades and that paid off fantastically today as drops were followed by rips up in gold, silver, and to some extent NG which didn't rip up, but did pay off if you were patient. Had a really great day in all of those. I am trying once again now to short Dow futures at 20500ish, hoping that will be resistance and that we get a pull back into the open tomorrow. So far this strategy has bee a real loser though. Also shorting CL still with tight stops above 53.10. If it pops up over 53.10 I will take a wait and see attitude until it hits 53.50 and short again unless we get some crazy news of rent a rebel action or something. Looks like I was a bit early closing my Apple 2018 bcs and I couldhave squeezed the last few drops if I had waited until today maybe.


  135. A smart oil trader on twitter that I converse with says it's the 21st.

    https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/831634168459182082


  136. My bad Phil. I didn't report the latest data yesterday afternoon. See correction below:

     

             Friday morning  2/10               2/13                         2/13                    2/14                    2/14
                            Op Interest         Open  Interest          daily change        Open  Interest     daily change

    Mar’17                  328,293               241481                  -37,227                     181,514               -59,967

    Apr’17                   310,924              398162                  +49,891                     431,007                32,915

    May’17                 204,546               225381                  +8,318                       232,668                 7,287

    June’17                259,585               257909                  +  532                         266,554                8,645

    Jul’17                     102,768              112121                  +2,504                       111,325                   -796

    Only three trading days left


  137. Good morning from the command center – boy do I miss my set-up when I'm away! 

    I don't know about you guys but /NG just paid for my whole trip – up $5,000!  Obviously taking that and running at $2.97.

    Still in the reloaded /TF shorts at 1,393 – those paid for my trip on yesterday's dip so I guess I need to go on another trip – who's with me?


  138. I'm with you Phil! Paid for my trip as well and the movers I hired! 


  139. NG – Nice !


  140. I'm with you Phil! Paid for my trip as well and the movers I hired! Between NG, CL, and SI I had quite a day yesterday. Oil could be interesting today, but I am a bit worried by how many of those contracts got rolled so quickly. We are down to a very manageable 181k with 5 trading days left. If EIA is better than API it may be a pop rather than a drop, what do you think? 


  141. Phil is the Dow going to lead the other indices higher or is it the laggard coming down? Will we ever see a day where the market drops? With all the noise about Russia and the NSA chief resigning plus interest rate hikes very much in play you would think it should have dropped, but it just keeps going up up and away!


  142. Oil/Den – Thanks for the update, that makes way more sense.  Still, figure they have to dump 160,000 at least and that's more than 50,000 a day so good pressure on oil continues and we're up another $500 per contract on that from $53.30 yesterday (the re-entry).  Maybe another BS spike on inventories and then – THE BIG ONE!  

    Image result for this is the big one animated gif

    Spicer/Latch – I hope she gets an Emmy, that's the funniest impression I've seen in years.  As good as the guy who used to do Clinton.

    Image result for mccarthy spicer animated gif

      Oroville dam seems under control but rain coming this weekend.

    MON/Learner – That's the main point I was trying to make this weekend, when you are a value investor your job is simple – buy and wait!  Eventually, someone big (Buffet in this case) comes along and realizes what a value your stock is and up it goes.  Since we're not in and out of things and not day-trading, the benefit then is that we took nice, leveraged positions that give us fantastic rewards as our value stocks move up and stay up.

    Also interesting when looking at big boy stocks is watching the ones they exited as Berkshire was a significant shareholder in those stocks and so was probably responsible for a lot of the downward pressure.  That makes me want to look closely at DE, KMI, WMT and VZ – especially if they get additionally punished.  

    Don't forget, Berkshire invests like we do – there may be nothing wrong with those stocks, just that Buffet thought they were toppy and decided to cash out for fresh horses.  He may have been up 30% already (and, don't forget, he's not doing options), if there's a nice correction, the way we play – we are THRILLED with a blue chip stock that goes up 10% in 2 years, right?

    Coffee/Den – Yet /KCN7 languishes at $147.70.  angry

    API/Den, Burr – Thanks, not looking good for the oily boys with 3 days left and bad news likely at 10:30 (EIA confirms API).  

    Oil/Craigs – Don't forget Monday is a holiday, not sure if oil is trading or not so be super-careful re. open contracts.  Good job learning patience (even if by accident).

    Why did I not stay in Vegas if this is a holiday weekend???  I could have gone to the 4 Seasons for a few days – that place is so relaxing! 

    Good point on rolling, Craigs – by observation, they dumped 60M barrels yesterday without too much damage but it was over 0.50 and I'll take a couple of more $500 winners if they want to keep pretending they REALLY want to own 180M barrels on Tuesday.   And look how big April is already…

    Dow/Craigs – This is an irrational, 1999-type of rally where you can't apply logic to it.  Just have to go with the flow, keep buying longs and keep buying hedges with the money we make from the longs.


  143. Test. Was having issues posting yesterday.


  144. Test 2


  145. read you loud and clear Ravi, over…


  146. Sorry- first was from Greg and second from me. 


  147. No worries :)  

    R2k looking weak, new closing high but lower high and lower low from previous day. Crack in the shell? we shall see…