Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Thinly-Traded Thursday – Weak Bounces Mean Nothing

You're welcome!  

We had plenty of time to execute our trade idea from yesterday morning's PSW Report, where I said:

"Our play this morning in our Live Member Chat Room was to go LONG on the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 5,775, expecting at least a weak bounce (and a $500 profit) to 5,600 and maybe a strong ($1,000) bounce to 5,625 because we're still in a low-volume environment, so we're not expecting any major selling just yet."

As it turned out, we hit the jackpot with a $1,500 per contract gain and now re-testing the weak bounce line at 5,600 because, as we expected, the volume was nonsense (48M on SPY – less than half an average day) and gains quickly reversed on all the indexes after hours.  European indexs are testing Friday's lows this morning as Trump is speaking in Poland and scaring everyone ahead of the G20 meeting.  

Image result for trump g20 cartoonIt's not because of anything specifically he's saying – just the general loss of confidence people get every time they are reminded this guy is the President of the United States.  

I'm in Europe at the moment and generally they see Trump as a joke but they don't think he's dangerous – just ridiculous.  If anything, he's helping Europe to feel better about themselves and take charge of World affairs, no longer waiting for America to take the lead.

Meanwhile, while Donald Trump is breaking trade agreements, other countries are making them.  This morning, the EU and Japan signed a major free trade alliance, shifting even more of the balance of Global Power away from the Unitied States as relationships we worked on for decades are being tweeted away on a daily basis.  Among other things, the pact would eliminate duties on cars, agriculture and food imports, as well as other goods and products.  This will put US producers at a tremendous disadvantage if Trump can't check his ego and come to the table.

Image result for trump g20 cartoon

 U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley told a U.N. Security Council meeting that North Korea's actions are "quickly closing off the possibility of a diplomatic solution," stating the country is prepared to use military force against Pyongyang.  Defense stocks could rise again today as President Trump said he's contemplating some "pretty severe things" to retaliate after the isolated regime launched an intercontinental ballistic missile.

I'm no great politician but I don't really understand how threatening to attack an unstable dictator with nuclear weapons is going to stop him from using them when clearly it is the only viable defense he has against US forces.  Those forces are likely to come up from South Korea, a country with 50M people and 1,313 people per square mile vs. 90 people per square mile in the US.  That means a nuclear missile strike anywhere in that small, dense country  would be devastating.

Keep that in mind when you are laughing about Trump's tweets – this is the first President that has moved the "Doomsday Clock" closer to anhilation since Kennedy and Kruschev squared off over Cuba in the 60s.  Since then, our World leaders have worked to reduce tensions, not to escalate them yet John Mecklin, editor of the Journal that keeps the Doomsday clock recently said:

"Now, about halfway through Trump’s first year in office, it is unfortunately obvious that this negative assessment was correct, if anything underestimating the president’s proclivity for intemperate and careless behavior with regard to matters that threaten the whole of humanity and the future of civilization. Traditionally, the Doomsday Clock is set once, at the beginning of the year, and the minute hand does not subsequently move for light or transient causes. This July 4, the Clock remains at two and a half minutes to midnight, because the Science and Security Board foresaw and factored into its calculations what has very unfortunately come to pass in the past six months."

"That their early judgment has been proven correct is no source of satisfaction. In this case, the words 'we told you so' reflect a terrifying reality: Because of his carelessness, unwillingness to heed expert advice, refusal to acknowledge well-established science, and apparent lack of impulse control (among other concerning tendencies), the president of the United States is a threat to the future of civilization."

Image result for world nuclear explosion animated gifSo happy Fourth of July America, it's only month 7 for Team Trump and we're alreay on the brink of nuclear war.  It doesn't seem to bother the stock markets as we drift along near our all-time highs so let's just enjoy the ride while it lasts – if it lasts….

Tesla, for example, had bad news on sales, a very harsh downgrade from Goldman Sachs and a negative report on their crash ratings which dropped them all the way from $385 last Monday to $308 this morning (20% on the button) but then Gene Munster does Elon a solid this morning and says "Tesla's Model 3 Could Change the World Just Like the iPhone" and the stock jumps back up to $315 but, as we know from the 5% Rule™, a $77 drop should give us a $15 bounce to $333 just to qualify as weak and $348 is the strong bounce line so we'll see how much Munster BS the suckers are ready to swallow once the markets actually open.

We are, of course, short on TSLA in our Short-Term Portfolio and have been since May, when I wrote the award-winning: "Tesla's Earnings Miss – Emperor Musk has no Clothes!"  They were at $320 at the time and now, finally, back to $320 and yes, we had to roll our original short play but now it's working out very nicely, as is the GM play I predicted would outperform TSLA, which was:

  • Sell 10 GM 2019 $32 puts for $4.25 ($4,250)
  • Buy 25 GM 2019 $28 calls for $7.25 ($18,125)
  • Sell 25 GM 2019 $35 calls for $3.60 ($9,000)

That trade went into our Options Opportunity Portfolio at net $4,875 and it's already at $7,150, up $2,275 (46%) and well on the way to paying off the full $17,500 in 2019 if GM is good enough to stay over $35 (where it is now).  I guess, at $7,150, it's still good for a $10,350 (144%) gain from here so still good for a new trade and still a trade I like better than anything long on TSLA, which will NOT be worth more than GM ( $53Bn) or about $320 for the bloated EV maker.

It's a good example of playing value over hype – the value play will end up making $12,625 (258%) on cash in lesss than two years with very little risk so why, Why, WHY people do you even consider messing around with these idiotic momentum plays?  Why???

It's a tricky market – let's keep it simple and keep it hedged!  

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!



  1. G20 / Phil – I don't think that Trump and Putin will steamroll the rest of the world. It's a matter of fact, Merkel seems to already be looking past the US for leadership:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/merkel-stands-by-suggestion-europe-cant-rely-on-us

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel stood by her suggestion that Europe can no longer entirely rely on the U.S. and declared Wednesday that Germany and China can work together to help calm the world’s problems.

    Trump is making China look like the more stable partner! Are conservatives going to wake up and see where this is leading? China has their share of problems of course, but we are simply helping them now.


  2. And Phil, while in the UK, take the temperature of the Brexit situation. It seems that the Conservatives are pulling themselves apart:

    http://www.eschatonblog.com/2017/07/wankers-and-fuckers.html

    All the while Mrs May will aim to push Brexit legislation through the House of Commons when she has a working majority of only 13 and is vulnerable to rebellions by pro-European Conservatives pushing her towards a softer version of Brexit and disarming her threat to walk away with no deal.

    The poison is already running around the system. “We can work with half the Labour party and crush the fuckers,” says one Conservative MP, referring to his Eurosceptic colleagues. A leading pro-Brexit MP says he would not tolerate threats from the “wankers” on his party’s pro-European wing.

    Civilized conversations!


  3. TSLA – 317 at this moment! Jabo, hope you are smiling.


  4. Winston—-thank you also great explanation


  5. Good Morning.


  6. Europeans might not be afraid of Trump; Koreans sure as hell are.


  7. I would be as well….


  8. GE's stock drops after J.P. Morgan slashes price target

    Font size: A | A | A

     

    8:45 AM ET 7/6/17 | MarketWatch

    Shares of General Electric Co. (GE) slumped 1.8% in premarket trade Thursday, after J.P. Morgan slashed its price target, citing an uncertain outlook and a lack of growth potential. Analyst C. Stephen Tusa reiterated his bearish underweight rating on the industrial conglomerate, and cut his stock price target to $22, which is 20% below Wednesday's closing price of $27.35, from $27. The stock traded at $26.85 ahead of the open; the stock hasn't closed below $27 since Oct. 5, 2015. Tusa said the GE narrative "is as open and undefined as it's been in decades," with the new CEO likely to set the course over the second half of the year on a material restructuring that includes setting portfolio priorities, a change in the capital allocation strategy and new long-term growth targets. While a fresh start is expected under John Flannery, who will become CEO on Aug. 1, but "we don't see a quick or easy fix to the current predicament," Tusa wrote in a note to clients. "Unlike other resets where the multiple expands, we don't see the future growth potential as a catalyst here, and are cutting our price target to $22 and remain [underweight]." The stock has dropped 13.5% year to date through Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 8.7%. 


  9. die TSLA!!!! ;-)


  10. FU IMAX!!!! wtf!


  11. FU LB!!!


  12. Good morning!

    I can play until lunch-time (5pm here) and then I have to go have dinner and will check in again before the close.

    Big Chart – Nas bouncing off that 40% line, of course, and it's 5,600 from 5,900 so 300-point drop means 60-point bounces but we know Nas likes 25s so 50-point bounces to 5,650 (weak) and 5,700 (strong) is the bigger picture here.  Failing that and then we watch the S&P and the 2,415 line (50 dma) to confirm a broader sell-off.   Losing 5,600 would be BAD in any case. 

    G20/StJ – They don't need us and, sadly, Trump thinks he doesn't need them.  He's alienating China over NoKo and Merkel can't stand him and he's messing with Canada and Mexico and now we're back to sanctioning Russia – I'm not sure if we have any friends in the room!   Conservative will never "wake up" they are getting deeper and deeper into a fantasy World where all this is "Trump's Brilliant Negotiating Strategy".

    Brexit/StJ – Most of the people I've spoken to really don't care, as long as they can still travel to the continent without a hassle.  I was surprised what a hassle security was going from Paris to London – not quite the "open borders" we hear about in the States.  

    IMAX/Jabob – Congrats, we're going to get to own a lot of it!  cheeky

    GE/Jabob – That's harsh. 

    LB/Jabob – Oh no, there goes all our progress.  At least now we can add it to the OOP.


  13. FTR, GNC, IMAX, F, GILD, TEVA, GE, JO, TGT, LB…looks like we will own a lot more..dangit!!!!


  14. Borders / Phil – The UK is not part of the Schengen agreement so no open borders! Drive between France and Germany or Spain or Italy to experience the open borders.


  15. Donald Trump, in Poland, Urges West to ‘Defend Our Civilization’


  16. wonder why CBI is getting sold off today … 



  17. Corning’s glass-full concept car




  18. Volvo Electrifies Or Dies


  19. Global house prices




  20. Greetings from Europe,

    The clown has landed


  21. US factory orders fell in May for second straight month




  22. Dangit/Jabob – Yes, those are all such awful companies, why would we want to own them?

    Borders/StJ – Ah, well that's silly then.  What's the point of being in the EU if you can't even go through customs without all that bother?  We almost missed the EuroStar because if the customs – I didn't leave enough time.

    CBI/Learner – And they just got a nice contract too.  I guess it was somehow disappointing or maybe it has to do with Qatar's increased LNG competition making it less likely they get more if prices are pushed down?  

    [$$] Chicago Bridge's Next Catalyst

    Chicago Bridge & Iron Secures Venture Global LNG Contract

    Clown/Yodi – See if you can persuade him to stay! 

    • Stocks slump at the open, with techs continuing to sputter, as major central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, have adopted more hawkish rhetoric; Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.9%.
    • European bourses trade lower, with U.K.'s FTSE -0.5%, Germany's DAX -0.8% and France's CAC -0.9%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished -0.4% while China's Shanghai Composite closed +0.2%.
    • Corporate news is light, but Costco opens +1.1% after reporting a 6% gain in June same store sales vs. a flat showing a year ago and 4% growth last month.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are lower, as sovereign bond yields rise across the globe; the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield rises 5 bps to 2.37%.
    • UBS analyst Julian Emanuel says higher yields could present a near-term problem for tech stocks, as they "will require superior earnings reports to halt the slide."
    • U.S. crude oil +2% to $46.04/bbl after the API reported a much larger than expected decline in U.S. crude inventories.

    • ECB policymakers last month discussed dropping the bank's longstanding pledge to increase/extend QE. The news is adding to pressure on European stocks (now down more than 1%), and sending the euro and EU bond yields higher.
    • On this side of the pond, S&P 500 futures are down 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield is ahead a full six basis points to 2.38% – it's highest level since early May, and up 24 basis points in just the last handful of sessions.
    • TLT -0.8%TBT +1.6%

    • The ECB ultimately took little action, but stocks are slipping and bond yields rising after the bank's meeting minutes show policymakers discussing whether to drop their longstanding pledge to expand/extend the QE program.
    • The policy statement ultimately included a line indicating that rate cuts further into negative territory were unlikely.
    • Bond yields are pushing sharply higher, led by the Spanish 10-year yield up 13 basis points to 1.676%. The German 10-year Bund is up 9.3 bps to 0.563%.
    • The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) is adding to gains, now higher by 0.4% vs. the dollar to $1.1396. The Stoxx 600 is now lower by 1.1%

    • June US PMI Services Index54.2 vs. 53.0 consensus, 53.6 prior.
    • Strongest expansion in business activity since January.
    • New order growth also at five-month high.
    • Input prices rise at fastest pace in two years

    • Mortgage rates rose in tandem with U.S. Treasury yields over the past week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage making its biggest jump since March, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey.
    • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.96%, jumping from 3.88% a week ago, while the average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.22% from 3.17% in the previous week.
    • Last year at this time, the 30-year and 15-year fixed rates averaged 3.41% and 2.74%, respectively.
    • Pricey valuations combined with rent growth that's not likely to improve in H2 and next year have UBS turning cautious on the apartment REITs.
    • Supply growth this year and next looks to be "most impactful" in NYC, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, San Francisco, and D.C. UBS expects same-store revenue growth to remain around 3% – not terrible, except that valuations are implying a faster pace.
    • Downgraded to Neutral from Buy are Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) and Mid-America Apartment (NYSE:MAA). Aimco (NYSE:AIV) is now the team's only apartment REIT rated with a Buy. UBS suggests perhaps shifting money into the office REIT sector, with Boston Properties (NYSE:BXP) and Kilroy Realty (NYSE:KRC) as top picks.

    Blue Apron falls again as investors stay cautious

    • Blue Apron (NYSE:APRN) is down another 5.35% to hit a post-IPO low of $8.33.
    • There isn't any news out on Blue Apron to impact trading other than a housekeeping SEC filingrelated to its articles of incorporation, but investor confidence has faded on the online meal kit seller following Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods.
    • Blue Apron now trades at about half of the original pricing range of the IPO. Also, Blue Apron's market cap slipped below $1.5B, a level seen by some traders as a floor,
    • Raymond James lines up Nike (NYSE:NKE) as its top pick in the active lifestyle sector on its view that China will provide a huge lift for the company. Analyst Cedric Lecasble points to the strong consumer demand in China for Western sports.
    • RJ starts coverage on Nike with an Outperform rating and $71 price target.
    • NKE -0.40% premarket to $57.33.
    • L Brands (NYSE:LBreports sales fell 6% in June to $1.213B.
    • Comparable sales were down 9% during the month vs. -6.8% consensus, driven lower by a 17% drop for the Victoria's Secret brand.
    • The retailer says its merchandise margin rate improved during the month compared to a year ago.
    • LB -2.05% premarket to $53.00

    Samsung could surpass Apple's operating profit in Q2

    • Samsung (OTC:SSNNFOTC:SSNLF) could surpass Apple in quarterly profit for the first time, according to CNBC
    • Samsung set to report Q2 profits of about $11.5B on revenues of $50.8B in revenue while analysts estimate Apple’s profit at $10.49B with $44.9B in revenues.
    • Semiconductors could prove the largest boost with Northern Trust Capital Markets analyst Neil Campling expecting semiconductors to contribute 60% of profits. 
    • Samsung will release Q2 earnings guidance tomorrow. 
    • Previously: Semiconductor sales grew 24% in May (July 3)

    Apple's Fastest Processor Ever 

    • Nikkei sources suggest that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will use OLED screens in all of next year’s iPhones.
    • A source says Apple has tentative plans to release three phone models in 2H18 and all will feature OLED, whereas only the premium model this year is thought to include that type of screen.
    • The switch would benefit Samsung as the leading OLED maker. Samsung has a new South Korean facility planned next year to help keep up with demand. 
    • Apple is considering a $1.75B to $2.62B investment in LG’s OLED production as a way to diversify suppliers. 
    • Even with the investments, the OLED production market could fail to keep up with the demand of three iPhones.      
    • Previously: Apple considering LG OLED investment (July 3)

  23. Oil with a nice draw, as we expected:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -6.3M barrels vs. -2.3M consensus, +0.1M last week.
    • Gasoline -3.7M barrels vs. -1.1M consensus, -0.9M last week.
    • Distillates -1.9M vs. +0.2M consensus, -0.2M last week.
    • Futures +1.57% to $45.84.

    Very little reaction.


  24. Phil// Any suggestions for oil shorts?  Maybe USO?  No futures though.  Thanks.


  25. Phil, 

    What are your thoughts on DSW? 


  26. Oil/Rookie – I would wait until next week, hopefully we get back to $47.  $46 could easily go against you on any kind of bullish news. 

    Europe recovered into the close:

    DSW/Jeff – Well in March I said:

    DSW/Stock – That's a good one too.  Gotta try shoes on.  Very thin margins though ($2.6Bn sales, $130M profits) and very little growth means a low p/e (12) is appropriate for them.  Unlike GME – I don't see much upside potential for DSW and rising labor costs at 500 stores figuring 10 people per store x $1.50/hr x 2,000 hrs = $9.5M – almost 10% of profits and not just this year as minimum wages pick up so a little more dicey than LB and they don't have any pricing power so I'd wait until earnings to get a clear picture.  Still interesting but I need more info.

    • Shares of Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) are down 1.10% after rival Finish Line reported comparable sales fell 4.5% in FQ4 to miss the consensus estimate.
    • Finish Line expects comparable sales to increase at a low single-digit pace this year.
    • Integer Invesments posted an article on Foot Locker yesterday. Included was a breakdown of EV/EBITDA ratios in which Foot Locker compared nicely to Nike, Adidas, VF Corp and Finish Line.
    • Previously: Finish Line lower post FQ4 results (March 24)

     

    • Shoe Carnival (SCVL -0.8%) trades lower after posting a mixed Q4 report and issuing profit guidance just ahead of consensus estimates.
    • The retailer saw comparable sales fall 1.2% in Q4. Merchandise margin was down 1.3% Y/Y.
    • Looking ahead, Shoe Carnival expects FY17 revenue of $1.028B to $1.040B and EPS of $1.45 to $1.54.
    • Previously: Shoe Carnival beats by $0.03, misses on revenue (March 23)

     

    • Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) reports comparable-store sales fell 4.5% in FQ4.
    • Gross margin rate squeezed 500 bps to 29.1%.
    • SG&A expense rate improved 130 bps to 23.1%.
    • Adjusted operating margin rate slipped 440 bps to 6%.
    • Merchandise inventory -4.8% Y/Y to $331.15M.
    • Store count Y/Y: Finish Line -18 to 573; Branded shops -18 to 374.
    • FY2018 Guidance: Comparable-store sales: increase low-single digits; Adjusted EPS: $1.12 to $1.23.
    • FINL -11.39% premarket.
     
    • Cowen lifts Skechers (NYSE:SKX) to an Outperform rating after having the shoe seller set at Market Perform.
    • The focus of analyst John Kernan's note is on Skecher's international wholesale growth.
    • The investment firm raises its price target on SKX to $35 from $25 to rep 28% upside potential for shares.

     

    • Forward View sizes up Nike (NYSE:NKE) after the company's FQ3 report sent shares lower earlier this week.
    • The firm calls Nike one of the few manufacturers with the breath and capacity to consistently grow its direct-to-consumer business.
    • "As traditional distribution channels suffer, especially in the apparel industry, Nike has an unparalleled opportunity for double-digit DTC revenue growth for years. Look for Nike’s less-important retail buyers to increasingly worry if they’ll become obsolete and whether or not Nike will allot merchandise for them," writes analyst Nathan Yates.
    • Nike is rated at Hold by Forward View and assigned a price target of $55 on concerns over the company hitting the consensus estimate with FQ4 EPS. The longer-term view on the Swoosh is more positive.

    So we had earnings and they were not good (6% miss) but even the miss was 0.30 and their first miss in ages so I think they make their projected $1.40 for the year which is close enough to 10 p/e that I like them as a bargain play.

    I'd sell the Jan $17.50 puts for $2.15 and that's plenty by itself or you could pair 5 of those ($1,075) against 10 long $15 ($3.15)/$17.50 ($1.75) bull call spreads for net $1.40 ($1,400) so net $325 on the $2,500 spread is a good way to get your feet wet (get it – feet!).


  27. Phil, Please….Whats up with VZ? Slobbering as she goes down further! Have 5 contracts 2019 40 Puts at $2.90….Want her to bottom, to DD or even 2X DD…..getting greedy! Stop me from doing stupid shit!! Hope you are enjoying Europe. Trump had to follow you there. Thanks as always….


  28. MDLZ    lots of bull risk reversals last 2 days.   today 5000 Jan $47/$39 and yesterday 3000 Jan $50/$36


  29. big August IWM straddle just now


  30. VZ/Jasu – You know I prefer T…  Keep in mind that, if my overriding premise is correct and the market is going to correct, then lots of things will get cheaper.  If you are using hedges which make money on the way down to give you CASH!!! to buy more shares as they get cheaper, then it's good when it goes down, not bad.  

    Dividend payers like VZ tend to do worse when rates are rising (competition from risk-free assets) and, of course, their model is under attack by TMUS as well.  Also, this isn't the same VZ you bought because they sold CA, TX and FL to FTR – that business is never coming back and has to be about 15% of their revenues.

    So yes, they have the cash but now only 48 states to do business in – hopefully they had something more clever in mind than buybacks.   I also consider it a big negative that they also sold FIOS to FTR – shows they have pretty much given up on making it a thing, I imagine the next gen WiFi makes it obsolete.  

    So yes, you are greedy, you have a net entry at $37.10, which would be fine and IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER what the PRICE of your short puts is at any given time and, EVEN IF Verizon is below $35 in January of 2019, THEN you can roll it to 2x the 2021 $30 puts and then you'd be netting in for like $28.50 and, if you don't REALLY want to own 1,000 shares of VZ for $28.50 (35% off) with a $115Bn market cap making $12Bn a year – then why would be in the position now?  

    MDLZ/Stock – Not exciting to me.

    Well guys, I'm going to head out – things look dull but it's later than I planned so not sure when I get back.  Either way, I'll sign in and catch up when I get back, not likely to be after 6 (11pm for me).

    Tomorrow I plan to see Hamlet done properly – that will be a late night.


  31. GE POS


  32. LB POS too


  33. FTR geez


  34. but Jabo, TSLA, yay!


  35. yes rustle… it's about time ;-)

    Now if only the FU stocks would stop tanking…


  36. Amber Heard just dumped Elon Musk.  He can't afford her anymore after this week and last.


  37. Poland's first lady snubs the Donald.  I love it !

    ~~http://www.cnbc.com/latest-video/


  38. Thanks, Hanj. Dunno, looks like a snub to me.  At any rate, keeping the Donald waiting was great.

    http://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/07/06/president-trump-gets-snubbed-by-polands-first-lady-agata-kornhauser-duda.html


  39. KHC  interesting retreat 50% fib today, but looking for support at 78


  40. NAK  sometimes mentioned here. Somebody's interested in the Nov $1.50 calls    10,000x


  41. Phil – Hamlet – Hopefully at the Harold Pinter? Enjoy.

    "Keep that in mind when you are laughing about Trump's tweets – this is the first President that has moved the "Doomsday Clock" closer to anhilation since Kennedy and Kruschev squared off over Cuba in the 60s…. the president of the United States is a threat to the future of civilization."

    And now a moment of Zen…. In the troubled places of the world, the Devil's Hunter finds rare game. For man-made savagery is only the instrument for a secret terror stirring from its dark place of ambush. 

    Man looks up at the stars, and dreams his futile dreams. Child of the universe, his toys are ignorance, his games, fantasy. Not even master of his own fate, it is the Devil's Puppeteer who stretches his fingers to answer the question: What will happen next?  

    The Earth, tumbling grain of sand in the darkness of unending space, plays host to a strange and awful guest, unsought, uninvited, possessor of fearsome power, purveyor of dark deed, a relentless traveler on the road to its mysterious goal. 

    Epilogue: The Inheritors are on their way. In a universe of billions of stars, there are places of love and happiness. On this Earth, in this spot, magic settled for a moment. Wonder touched a few lives, and a few odd pieces fell smoothly into the jigsaw of Creation.

    Epitaph? This third rock from the Sun is a wonderfully rare piece of RE. The clean up crew and long since gone Inheritor's are just waiting patiently, for these talking monkeys to seal their own fate.  This moment of Zen is over, remember this and Out.


  42. Phil your earlier advice to Rookie about waiting to short oil at $46 certainly was prudent advice even though they dropped it like a stone right around 1pm est. I am wondering if there was something in the 1pm EIA report that spooked traders, Because a 13 million barrel plus draw seems like it should have had a more positive price impact. So are they disregarding the inventory draw as an anomaly in this still oversupplied market as we all saw that coming and it doesn't mean a damn thing or is it giving a head fake before popping into the weekend maybe to fool us amateurs out of the long trade? I know you've been saying to look out after July 4th so I am once again asking for your opinion on oil priicesvfrom here? Do you have a bias either way above 45 or below 45 into August? No need to Sherlock me if you have no opinion one way or another, just tell me that. Thanks. 


  43. 1.08 ftr   pos


  44. Today, felt like some market sell off.  The hedges helped, but every long call position irrespective of sector was hurt.  From biotechs to golds to consumer and tech of course… This is rare.  

     


  45. Not bullish for oil and I suspect that many countries will follow up soon:

    http://www.autoblog.com/2017/07/06/france-plans-to-ban-sale-of-diesel-gasoline-vehicles/

    France aims to end the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040 and become carbon neutral 10 years later, Ecology Minister Nicolas Hulot said on Thursday at a presentation of measures to keep up momentum on the Paris climate agreement.

    We might have reached peak oil – peak usage!


  46. And this is what happens when you pass stupid rules:

    http://www.autoblog.com/2017/07/05/trump-executive-order-semi-truck-safety-regulations/

    According to Bloomberg, a regulation mandating speed limiters on semi-trucks may not be implemented due to an executive order from President Donald Trump. The news agency says that the Department of Transportation is unable to implement the regulation, which would limit trucks' speeds safety and fuel savings, because they would have to find at least two other rules to cut to save money. This is a result of an executive order issued by Donald Trump on January 30 titled "Presidential Executive Order on Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs," which requires this kind of regulation cutting of any national agency proposing new rule.

    The speed limiter law is one that has been in the works for a few years now, with proposals circulating at least since 2014. It also had broad support from both trucking companies such as the American Trucking Association and Road Safe America, as well as traditional safety agencies such as the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) most recent proposal suggested limiting trucks to 60, 65, or 68 mph, and the organization said that aside from safety, the regulation could save over $1 billion a year in fuel.

    So if tomorrow we have a new regulation that would save thousands of lives, we can't pass it because we need to remove 2 other regulations. Insane! That's what happens when dogma gets in the way of common sense.


  47. We have too many regulations, many are simply there to stifle competition. Do you believe there are not 2 regulations that can be done away with?  I support free markets, not central planning. Our federal government has way overstepped it's boundaries as set by the constitution and has spent us into the poorhouse creating all these rules and the bureaucracy to enforce them. We have speed limits and the means to enforce them, and that is the business of the states, not the federal government. This country was founded on the principles of freedom and I'm getting sick of being "ruled" to death. France can ban anything it likes, we don't have to follow. That's their business. I prefer to see common sense make a comeback. I'm no Trump supporter, but there's one rule I can get behind! So now you can call me pro death and destruction if you like. I call it freedom.


  48. No need to Sherlock me if you have no opinion…

    LOL, ROFL! I will have to use that one in the future. Oh my, prepare to be Sherlocked! Phil should take that as a compliment :)


  49. Silver is getting very tempting, I have a cycle guy who has done pretty well with pm's and says mid July should be the bottom. Amazed at the weakness given the dollar decline, I know you've mentioned it… any fundamental reason for it to be so cheap?


  50. FTR pos… or golden opportunity? I understand the frustration, I'm in it with you, but I'm with Phil, the only reason I haven't added at these prices is hope for that dip to 80c… I remember CLF at $1.20, what a pos that was, huh? What a freaking pos I shoulda backed up the truck bargain that was… if FTR doesn't go bankrupt (and I'm convinced they won't) then it's only a matter of time and I'm willing to wait and collect the dividends. I just hope I'm not sorry for not doubling down now but waiting for the reverse split makes too much sense.


  51. mkuckstars1—I hope you are right… I pieced in and added FTR and I sure hope it doesn't go bankrupt because it would be a huge loss for me and everyone else who owns the POS on this board.

    I remember CLF at 1.20 too. I didn't add that low because there was a lot of bankruptcy fears even on this board.

    I also remember seeing .. If it doesn't go bankrupt it could go much higher.

    It did recover somewhat but not even close to where everyone here began buyng it (in the 20s if I am remembering correctly).

    I like Phil's idea of piecing into positions and it could save people a lot of money.

    But it still is frustrating when the FU portfolio keeps sinking almost daily and we still have barely had a drop in the market.

    Will they recover .. i hope so.

    But so far, I feel like I am buying a bunch of falling knives.

    Fortunately, there have been some great trades that have easily made up for these dogs with fleas.

    Obviously, I hope to eat crow by the end of the year about these names like Phil has predicted.

    We will see…


  52. NEED MOAR FTR!



  53. Retailmageddon? Don’t Tell Costco



  54. Protests kick off for second day ahead of G20 summit




  55. How to play a stock market showing ‘unsustainable growth’







  56. Muck – " I support free markets, not central planning…. I prefer to see common sense make a comeback."

    What do Santa Claus, The Easter Bunny, The Tooth Fairy and Free Markets have in common? All bedtime fairy tales for the gullible, that have never existed, nor can. I concur with the want for common sense, but how do you regulate greedy pigs who will eat everything and one in sight? We necessarily have regulated and adaptive capitalism.

    StJL – "Insane! That's what happens when dogma gets in the way of common sense."

    No, this is what happens when the ignorant are allowed to breed and vote.  And now a moment of ZEN, in this world of regulation, what two things do not require a certification, training or license?  

    Voting and having children. Now back to your regular programming and Out.






  57. Good morning!

    I'll be here until about 1pm today, then gone for the weekend.

    Like Jabob, I can't wait for FTR's reverse split next week.

    Europe is down a bit and we're flat so far, 5,600 holding on /NQ is the key.  dollar down 0.5% from yesterday's open is holding things up but /SI flash-crashed to $14.34 – that was exciting!  Back at $15.82 now.  

    Have to stay away from /SI for now, things like that are too scary as that was a $7,500 per contract dip!

    /KC took a tumble, back to $127.65 on /KCQ7 and I'm watching /KCZ7 for a $130 entry.

    Amber/Rustle – Could things be coming apart for Elon?  That kind of thing does happen when spouses see someone's business falling apart and their lawyers advise them to take half while there's still half to take!

    Poland/Albo – Yeah but Melania was clearly forcing her in that picture.  Those Slavs have iron grips! cheeky

    KHC/Stock – You must know something that I don't to pay $100Bn for that company.

    NAK/Stock – One of my kids' holdings – could blast up one day, could go broke.  We already took 1/2 of more than a double off the table on the spring pop – so we don't really care but I like them down here.

    Hamlet/Naybob – Book of Mormon won out in family vote but maybe next week I get my Shakespeare.  

    Oil/Craigs – Nasty sell-off.  Concerns about US production again and Qatar going off the rails.  The draw was expected by others besides me, that's why so little reaction.  Next week's inventory matters more to see if there is follow-through.  Oil is doing just what we thought it would – crashing after July 4th, there's no bounce to play for now until Labor Day.  Lower is more likely than higher but Qatar issue means it's too risky to play so you'll notice I haven't been calling oil lately.  If there's no obvious play – I simply play something else and stop wasting my time on an unproductive commodity.    

    Death of oil/StJ – That's exactly the time-frame I've been predicting for years but the Volvo announcement (no more gas-only cars by 2019) probably means that time-frame (2040) is still conservative.  So now the rest of the World is waking up to my peak demand theory which then leads to our Stranded Oil Theory that impacts the Saudis (so they are selling Aramco now) and other producing countries, whose reserve values will run downhill fast.

    Rule on rules/StJ – Complete idiocy that shows a complete disdain for Government and legal process, for that matter.

    Rules/Mkucs – Yes, tell that to the first few children who die when rules to protect people are deleted by an uncaring Government.  Go to their funerals and tell their families how you support free markets and you think it's good that the invisible hand was let loose to smite their kids.  I'll be sure to get the addresses for you – shouldn't take long the way things are going.  If you don't like a rule – you work to change the rule – not simply eliminate rules for the sake of it.  This country was a nightmare before regulations and countries that have less regulations are nightmares today.  RULES are what make a society – you are free to go live in a cave somewhere and opt out of the system but, for those of us who like to be CIVILIZED – we understand that rules are how we keep things organized.  Gosh, I can't believe I have to explain this to a post-neanderthal.  

    Image result for neanderthal

    "Maybe if we poop OUTSIDE the cave?"

    Sherlocked/Craigs, Mkcus – Well the fact that it springs to your mind means it works – you now have an important concept in your head that will hopefully help to guide you in future decisions! 

    /SI/Mkucs – I'd play WPM, not /SI, movement is too crazy on the commodity.

    FTR/Mkucs – Waiting is a much smarter move.  Too much uncertainty ahead of the split. 

    FTR/Jabob – Well things don't get this stupidly low unless you can convince a significant amount of people there is a bankruptcy risk.  That's how you shake long-term dividend-collectors out of their shares and keep the rubes away while you (the Bankster) scoop up all the shares ahead of the recovery.  It's so easy to feed the fire and keep people afraid.

    FTR earnings are Aug 1st, dividend just got paid on June 13th and the split is next weekend.  

    Here's Why You Should Hold Frontier Communications (FTR) Now