Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Tricky Tuesday – Markets Make Tempting Bounces but Not Good Enough

Things are still toppy.

As you can see from the S&P 500 chart, we're still in that range that tops out at 2,440 but we've held 2,400 so far for June so still generally bullish but now the 50-day moving average has caught up with us at 2,415 so we can no longer be satisfied with anything less and there's really no proper support below 2,400 – all the way to the 200 dma at 2,300 (a 5% Rule™ drop).

Yesterday morning, in our Live Member Chat Room, we took a bull play on the Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,408 and we caught a nice 10-point move up for $500 per contract gains in 2 hours at which point I said to our Members:

Now we take that off the table and look for either a fresh horse or, because the indexes all look toppy now, look for a possible reversal.  

/NQ 5,700 is very likely to be rejected so that's a good line if /TF is below 1,420 and /YM below 21,400 and /ES below 2,430 (which indicates they all failed their next breakout).  

So shorting /NQ with the stop above 5,700 is the most likely play now. 

As you can see on the Nasdaq (/NQ) chart, 5,700 has remained a good shorting line and, at the moment, we're down more than 10 points at $20 per point, per contract so $200 per contract gains on those too.   We can remain short on /NQ if the S&P (/ES) is below 2,425 and the Russell (/TF) is below 1,410 but we might flip bullish on the Russell at 1,405 if the indexes look bouncy.

Yellen testifies to Cojngress tomorrow and things are very up in the air until then.  We're also waiting to see if oil finds a floor at $44 ahead of this evening's API Report and tomorrow's EIA Report as last week we had a big draw that's not likely to be matched post-holiday.  

As far as playing Yellen tomorrow, I like Gold (/YG) for a bounce at $1,209 but better if we test $1,205.  Yellen is not at all likely to say anything other than what the Fed has been saying (3-4 0.25 increases a year for 3 years with a 3% target) and it's very possible she'll backpeddle a bit and give a more doveish outlook, which will send gold back up.  Overall economic uncertaintly and oil weakness are also good for gold.   

Of course we love ABX, and they tested the $15 line, where we've often played them before.  ABX is already in our Long-Term Portfolio and the spread is still playable now at about the same prices we started it with:

Long Call 2019 18-JAN 13.00 CALL [ABX @ $15.82 $0.47] 50 6/9/2017 (556) $23,750 $4.75 $-0.48 n/a     $4.28 $0.38 $-2,375 -10.0% $21,375
Short Call 2019 18-JAN 20.00 CALL [ABX @ $15.82 $0.47] -50 6/9/2017 (556) $-9,250 $1.85 $-0.44     $1.42 $0.17 $2,175 23.5% $-7,075
Short Put 2019 18-JAN 15.00 PUT [ABX @ $15.82 $0.47] -25 6/9/2017 (556) $-4,895 $1.96 $0.01     $1.97 $-0.14 $-18 -0.4% $-4,913

The net cost of that $35,000 spread is $9,387 – about where we started in June and your worst case is owning 2,500 shares of ABX at net $15 ($37,500) plus the $9,387 entry, which would add $3.75 to net you in for an aggressive $18.75 so worse than buying the stock but this is a leverage play where we make $25,613 (272%) or $10 per share at $20 vs needing $25 if we bought the stock at $15.

A more conservative way to play ABX here would be to sell 10 of the 2019 $13 puts for $1.10 ($1,100) and buy 10 of the $13 ($3.65)/$17 ($2.25) bull call spreads for $1.40 ($1,400) and that nets you into $4,000 worth of spreads for just $300 with $3,700 (1,233%) upside potential at just $17.  

There are lots of good opportunities to deploy our cash – even in this tricky market.  Earnings season should give us plenty of opportunities to go long if the broad market seems to be holding but I'm still worried about that downside at the moment.  For now, we'll wait to hear what Yellen has to say as well as keep an eye on the upcoming data reports, which heat up tomorrow.  

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Good morning! 

    I'll be on a train for London shortly, should be there by noon (EST) and I'll try to check in from my new hotel.


  2. Good morning all.

    Phil or anyone. Newbie here. Where do you tend to put your stops on these index trades? I shorted /NQ yesterday around 5702 and more or less arbitrarily put my stop at 5709 and got stopped out on that little blip up to 5711 near the close. Would have been still in the trade if that hadn't happened. Any guidance?


  3. And since /ES and /TF are below your thresholds, ok to get back in short on /NQ?


  4. Guess everyone is still asleep

    :-)


  5. rcs800/"Any guidance?"  Couple of approaches to this discussed, 1. tight stop, do not set a stop and walk away, watch the trading, try not to leave the computer, use judgement when to place closing order, algos are constantly hunting for stop orders.    2. play with conviction, if you have conviction in the trade and the trade goes against you, add more contracts to the trade, improve your basis, wait for a move in your direction, close some of the trade to get back to original size, take gains when appropriate


  6. Thank you sir!


  7. Good morning.

    Trademgmt – I know Phil teaches you to add more contracts if a conviction trade goes against you.  Maybe it's just me, but I don't think one's conviction should enter into a trade decision.  It's totally subjective, and doesn't effect the likelihood of success or failure in a trade.  In fact, it could lead to your continuing to add to losing trades and get you in trouble.

    JMHO. :-)


  8. That being said, Phil is very good at trading futures, and I'm not so hot. 8-)


  9. Good Morning.


  10. /TF does not show up in tdameritrade?


  11. Everyone has their own strategies on what works for futures trading.  I've never liked the tight stop model as I was always getting stopped out for a loss only to see the market gyrate back the other direction.  Then I'd chase and get burned again.  I've had much more success staying in a position for longer periods of time and scaling up and scaling down to shift my basis around (Phil's laddering style).  For example, I've been short /TF since the start of the year.  I'll scale between 1 to 20 contracts – but I'm always short.  The RUT is up about 4% YTD and my /TF short has been very profitable.



  12. where can I read about Phil's Laddering Style. I didn't see that in the new member introductions.


  13. /RTY is the new symbol for the Russle Emini on TOS. This is now available without the data feed imposed by ICE. I believe if you are on TOS and getting data under /TF; you are paying a monthly fee for that data.


  14. FU FTR!!!!


  15. Rcs//TF

    You have to get ICE futures quotes approved. About $100 per month. If you message support for TOS they'll send you the request form. 


  16. could we have a day when FTR doesn't go down 5% or more?

    What a POS


  17. scaling/rcs800 – take a look at Phil's post yesterday, 12:42. And learn about his 5% rule. That should do it.


  18. looks like we could hit Phil's 80c target this week


  19. Jabob – Phil's target to DD was .80 on the old stock, or $12 on the new.  Not that far fetched.


  20. albo--i know.

    can't believe we thought it was cheap at 4, then 3.5, then 3, then 2..etc…

    hope it survives


  21. FTR – You can sell 2019 $2 put for $1.20… Is that BK pricing! You can sell 10 of them, risk $800 for a possible gain of $1200 if they don't go BK. And tie up $500 of margin. Sounds good, but also scary.


  22. FTR- two factors which made this trade too risky for my taste- The balance sheet is a potential debt bomb; there is a secular downward trend for landlines.

    Now, it has gotten so cheap I may indulge a bit just for fun. The management could pull it off but a lot has to go right. 


  23. ABX     somebody reads Phil's morning post and sells 1500 ABX 2019 $13 puts


  24. On FTR you could sell the Jan 19 10 put for around 3.20 to net you in at 6.80 or .46 cents pre split. Thats pretty exciting although if it goes there, its probably going to zero


  25. pstas--i am hoping and praying this isn't a doughnut.

    worst trade of the year


  26. FTR  If you don't think they go BK by Jan  You can sell 10 of the $7 put for $5900 risking $1100.

    Does this mean the market thinks BK? 


  27. gerryf--either they think it is a BK or a typical reverse split from 1 to 15 then back to 1.

    should have sold this POS after the split announcement… dumb


  28. /RTY volume doesn't look very liquid yet…will have to stick with /TF for awhile


  29. CMG back under $400    They also came up with the innovative idea to sell queso   :)


  30. FU TSLA!!!


  31. FTR – I can't get a quote on 7 strike.  Nothing below 10 bucks at IB. Still, a crazee bet but who in the heck knows?


  32. CDNjay

    for FTR I get a 7 quote on TD but not on Tastytrade.


  33. While I'm down a ton on FTR, just like the rest of this board, I'm holding on to the belief that there hasn't been any new information since the debt issuance, and quarterly earnings call.  Nothing has changed, but the stock has dropped like a brick.  Although it is painful, I'm trying to view it as short term noise, before we get a new data point on the upcoming earnings call.  If their revenue decline shows signs of slowing down, as management promised on the last call, then the bull case is very much alive.  There was a very good article on SA about what FTR looks like if their revenue decline sticks to their historical average of about 1% a quarter, and they use their free cash flow to reduce debt, and if that pans out, we will all be very happy.

     

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4084691-frontier-communications-part-2-still-buying-preferred-shares


  34. FTR,

    I am not sure whether you can trade those options that everyone is talking about. They are the non standard options and there is 0 volume in these. Just using the bid-ask price does not make sense.

    regards


  35. pat swap— i sold some jan 2018 $15 puts today.

    this is the first day of trading for them.


  36. This  FTR is looks and feels like BTU…..bond holders drive the stock into bankruptcy; they take the company, issue new shares and clean up good…..bag-holders get to hold an empty bag….sounds like good business practices!!!


  37. jasu1--that is my biggest fear


  38. Maybe, but BTU had large cash flow deficits.  That isn't the case with FTR.  They can easily afford the debt service, unless they experience abnormal (for them) revenue declines.


  39. Phil/London

    Good evening!

    Left the city last week for Krakov/Dubrovnik, and back to the land of 'high tea' tomorrow….but alas, a quick stop this time around…thus have not been reading the site until just now.

    Happy travels!


  40. Bit of a short squeeze on TSLA, could rally up to 336 before some major resistance.


  41. good point palatoy.

    And it would seem pretty weird to me that they would cut the dividend and then turn around and file a BK.

    It seems like the typical sell the reverse split trading.

    I really hope this is "the opportunity" and it never drops to 12.


  42. FTR: would be interesting to know whether management is buying heavily at these prices? One thing is a fundamental analysis of FTR which identifies the serious undervaluation of the stock compared to the 'value' inherent in the business. Another is the external dynamic(s) related to stock price. A credible management team is going to have a plan, come hell or high water, to avoid a catastrophic decline in the stock price so that a reverse split necessary. FTR management failed that test. Any money involved in FTR has the value of a lottery ticket. The prevailing wind of hope has blown itself out. My investment in FTR is simply a hedge against Phil stating "I told you so", when FTR takes off like a rocket!  :)


  43. Winston--I would love to see it take off like a rocket so Phil could say I told you so.

    Unfortunately, in 2017 there have been a lot of "value" picks that have given us the "opportunity" to piece in at much lower prices waiting for the I told you so moment in the future.

    Like you, I don't enjoy watching my "assets" instantly decrease in value immediately after I purchase them.

    But (big butt) if I can add at much lower prices and they take off like a rocket later it can be very good.

    So lets hope and pray that happens with these dogs with fleas --FTR, M, GNC, GILD, TEVA, IMAX, GE, JO, XOM, TGT, ABX, F, LB 

    good luck! 


  44. i don't understand all the panic being voiced over FTR.  Phil has been aiming to DD at .80 ($12/sh) for months.  No faith in the master – Kierkegaard would be disappointed.  


  45. denlundy-- maybe because the stock has dropped from 4 to under 1 (reverse split adjusted)…

    So Phil might be willing to gamble and DD with a small FTR position and chalk up the loss if it fails.

    But most people on this board were not looking forward to DD at 80c when we were getting in before it dropped 80% in months!

    Especially, when it was supposed to be cheap at 3 and 2 and 1.50 and ….


  46. DBA  sometimes mentioned here

    25,000 Jan18 $20 calls are traded for .95 to $1.00       WASDE report tomorrow


  47. nobody is talking about the crazy mkt swings today?

    what happened?


  48. Trump Jr emails exposed about Russian involvement. I'm so (not) shocked!

    But some were apparently.


  49. thanks mkuc


  50. FTR – I sold 15 strike august calls for 1.30, hopefully to bring my cost down a little and just for fun


  51. FTR – remember those salad days buying at 7 and selling at 10? Yeah, those were good days.


  52. SNAP – beginning to look like a value pick! ;-)


  53. Scottmi – I go back to the late 90's where making 10-20% per month on covered calls was the thing.  Salad with all the dressing.  Companies like AOL, WCOM, CMGI,….. and of course Yahoo.   Nothing but old croutons in those salad bowls now


  54. Pstas – "Russle Emini"

    I once saw him a La Scala, his Cavalleria Rusticana was other worldly.  Thanks for my first LMAO of the day.


  55. CDN/FTR – What happens if earnings are good, and there is a short squeeze, back up to $2 at the very least, which would be $30 post-split?  Short calls capping the recovery to well below your basis is super risky in my opinion.


  56. Not sure what your basis is, but I need $33.75 to get back to even. 


  57. Ftr-When I was in Fla their trucks were everywhere. They weren't new trucks, but definitely older, but they seemed to be everywhere. Wireless hasn't hit the HOA's so people are still paying for the internet and landlines. Many older people can not operate anything complicated so they may be around for a lot longer than we expect. I got my sister a "smart" phone, put everyone's numbers in, set-up emails and she could not operate it at all. Couldn't even figure out how to answer the phone! So there may be hope for FTR. Fla has more HOA"S all over=mind boggling. We have a coffee pot that is so simple it's laughable in our rental & you cannot believe the people who can't work it. It grinds the beans, all you do is add the water, set the strength & punch "on." Comments like "WE couldn't figure out your coffee pot!" It is truly amazing they can't read the button that says on! I waited until FTR bottomed and have a small, no tiny position, so don't really care what happens to it.


  58.  Hi guys!

    Sorry I'm late,  Ran into some problems today and, at the moment, I only have my iPad so a bit limited in what I can do.

    What the heck happened at 11:30? Some sort of flash crash? Was there an event?


  59. Labatt Blues – "I go back to the late 90's where making 10-20% per month on covered calls was the thing. alad with all the dressing.  Companies like AOL, WCOM, CMGI,….. and of course Yahoo.   Nothing but old croutons in those salad bowls now"

    Somehow Phil's monkey throwing the dart pic comes to mind.

    Jasu – This  FTR is looks and feels like BTU…..bond holders drive the stock into bankruptcy; they take the company, issue new shares and clean up good…..bag-holders get to hold an empty bag….sounds like good business practices!!!

    Like a blindfolded chimp throwing darts at a board, when the market goes up and things are good, the Ackman's and the Trump's crow, when the shit hits the fan, they make lame excuses, file BK, and wipe out their investors money, its OPM, who cares? because Elmer Gantry's travelling revival show will be on the road under a new shingle in no time.


  60. Rcs800 –  you really don't want to jump in with a conviction strategy right off the bat. The losses can be explosive. The most important thing in futures trading is to develop a good stop-loss discipline and work on your money management skills. After getting great at that (two years), THEN  you might be ready to gamble with large scale conviction positions. As noted from the FTR  discussion, even playing conviction with stocks or options can be frustrating.    Make sure you ask about this in tomorrow's webinar, where I can show you on the screen, hopefully, some basics of the futures trading.


  61. As for FTR, Phil is on this case like an attorney and I trust his judgment and rationale.  From what I have read, 0.80 or $4 seems to be a real meritorious dumpster divers delight on this one. It seems as though the shorts are having their way, at the moment.  So if that's where it's potentially going, one must ask themselves….

    Are there any unfavorable covenants in their financing that get triggered by the company's credit rating, stock price or market cap? viz. a debt ceiling or other limiting factors?  Oh wait, here's a little something about that.

    Going beyond rupturing covenants, losing ability to borrow, and going into bankruptcy, all resulting in the common shares going to zero, there is a recent two part analysis here and here. Enjoy, if you have not already and Out.


  62. flash melt-up now … did Yellen say something? 


  63. Phil – "What the heck happened at 11:30? Some sort of flash crash? Was there an event?"

    When is Yellen's congressional testimony scheduled?


  64. Learner – Yellen – JINX!!!


  65. Yellen LIVE tomorrow 10AM EST


  66.  As to FTR – O yes of little faith!   I remember when SIRI  was down to a dime and I screamed about it for months yet it stayed down and everyone bailed. A year later, it was over a dollar. In retrospect the debt was easily manageable but no amount of logic seemed to work on people once  they thought it would go bankrupt.  LL, HOV, ABX, HMY, CROX, SKX… Some of our biggest winner ever were once our biggest losers.  

    And yes, sometimes these stocks do go bankrupt but,  if you play it as a sensible allocation of your portfolio —  then those are simply the cost of doing business when making these value plays.   


  67. Rump's twerp kid Twittered and the market dropped, pathetic.


  68. Phil – " As to FTR – O yes of little faith!"

    Come on man, get old testament on their asses, kinda like this… ROFLMAO.


  69. Jabo – you do a damn good Dathan, where's that golden calf? Yeah I know FU, now ROFLMAOPIMP and Out.


  70. Cheap at $4/Jabob –  with $9 billion in sales, paying out $700 million in dividends  and servicing $17.5 billion in debt, they are cheap at $4 ($4Bn).    Just because they were trading at one dollar doesn't make them expensive at four dollars. They are just ridiculously cheap at one dollar. If you don't get the concept, And don't trust the value,  then don't play it.    All you do by constantly deriding it is to keep other people  from taking advantage of a great opportunity. This is a ridiculously underpriced stock that is a huge opportunity at this price. It will take years for it to play out – not days,  so rather than complain constantly,  why not move on to something else that you do understand?


  71. kiss my tuchus Aviram!!! I mean Nat!!!


  72. lets hope you are right Phil.

    I am not keeping anyone from the FTR opportunity.

    In fact, I mentioned earlier about selling the 15 puts.

    I understand you are frustrated because of your slump.

    Enjoy your vacation.


  73. Downtrend/Pstas – yes, FTR knows they bought a decaying asset. They expect to lose 1% per year after things stabilize. Don't forget, this is cable TV, internet, etc – not just wired phones.   They have been saying they will solve the last mile since I was a teenager. So far, still not there. Even if we assume frontier is grossly mistaken and business drops 3% a year from $10Bn to 9.7 to 9.4 to 9.1 to 8.7, 8.4, 8.1, 7.7, 7.4, 7.1… that's still $85Bn in 10 years at 10% Gives them $17Bn  in operating profits. That's enough to pay down half the loan and keep the 10% dividends going.   

     Here's a good test for the group: who here does not pay for a phone or cable company to have a wired connection to their home?  We are wealthy people in the most advanced country in the world. If anyone has figured out how to do without wired lines, it would be us. Anyone?


  74. Phil /NG – Any thoughts on your honey badger (/NGV7) after todays run-up?
    I used your laddering technique to reduce my average from $3 to $2.92, then out at $3.06, which has paid my PSW subscription – Thank you :)  


  75. Jabo – Aviram – a brother, but not a co-conspirator, just a tuchus kicker and pot stirrer. This NSA audio clip of you has me SMPL, gotta clean up.


  76. UnWired – I use TMobile unlimited through a MOFI Networks cellular router.  Costs about $65/month, router costs about $300.



  77.  Good point by Palotay.

    Slump/Jabob –  maybe you don't think you come across that way, but it's extremely offputting to new people to hear you constantly riding down a trade that requires patience above all else.   And I am no more "frustrated" now than I was in 2008 when a ton of great stocks  went on sale and then got cheaper into 2009  but it's my job to cut through that BS and show people where to take action.  These opportunities don't come along very often and that's why you casting doubts constantly  isn't very funny when it stops people from taking advantage of great trades  just because you won't see value if the price goes up.     You are simply doing the exact opposite of what I am trying so hard to teach  and making my job much harder.   Not to mention wasting my time going over the same trade  over and over and over and over and over and over and over again every single friggin' day.  


  78. my apologies Phil..seriously, I am sorry.

    I really am not trying to dissuade anyone from buying opportunities.


  79. /NG/Aquila –  my theory on that remains that more exports will eventually chew into US inventories. That will make it much easier for a hurricane to cause a major disruption that gooses prices.   The Qatar thing is dampening  my  enthusiasm a bit as they are possibly going to add more production to stick it to the other OPEC members. That's something we will need to keep an eye on.  


  80. I know you think it's funny JaBob  but, when he gets to the point of being disruptive, then I get pissed. No big deal, just me drawing a boundary line.  


  81. Phil – Boundaries – we all gotta know this.


  82.  Speaking of FTR, here's a great example of how ridiculous Robo – reporting is these days. Capitalcube  tells its readers  that FTR has exploded to new highs today: http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/frontier-communications-corp-breached-its-50-day-moving-average-in-a-bullish-manner-ftr-us-july-11-2017/?yptr=yahoo


  83. Tricky to play with the spike but /TF did bounce right at 1,405 


  84. /NG – While waiting on a disruption (Hurricane, et) I have been adding contracts weekly each time it dips below $3.00 and selling all but a few contracts each time it spikes weekly.  Wash, Rinse, Repeat.  This has been very good to me for the past couple weeks.  

    VRX Trade Idea, whoever suggested this a few weeks ago; Thank you!   Looking very good!


  85. Final mile/Phil…..well, here in Altadena, California, where I'm spending the summer break, I pay Charter Cable for my connection in – what was it? – "the most advanced country in the world".

    However, when break's over and I return to my fairly cozy faculty apartment on the DGIST campus in Korea, look, Phil, no wires! Ok, so there's a campus wifi system of some sort, with odd looking antennae here and there, but it's free to me (although the school must be paying something for it). Works fine though.


  86. Dollar dive is what saved the markets:

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

    /NG/Joseph -  that's the right way to play it    That way, if it fails, you simply hold on for the longer-term 

     So, we have two people running without wires and only one in the US so far!


  87. Phil/Wires – I use a voip phone as my land line, but hardly used. Directv for my TV.


  88. Snow > What speeds do you get in Seoul (http://www.speedtest.net).
    FIOS gives me 57 / 65 mps down / up! (Looking forward to the Gb upgrade so I can advance to Asian Standards). Cell is too unreliable in my location in Richmond VA.


  89. Hi to all members. Phil I do hope you are enjoying you journey through Europe. I cannot understand why you do not give it a break???? Say hello to the queen for me.

    I could not miss the amount of discussions about FTR. I have recently myself commented on the amount of loss on this on FTR’s stock and option play, placed in my portfolio. I can understand the frustration, positions like this, can bring to most members. I started with PSW as well like a newbie and asked Phil, so many years back his advice on HOV. My position at the time was pretty grim. A great losing position. With his advice, buying and selling options, rolling and doubling, I could turn this play from a great loss to a profit of over 45K today. Many of the original HOV positions are even closed today, my final play will be Jan18, that’s how long it took. I just mention this to show, how long it can take to turn a loser around.

    The other one I hold is GILD, A while back I was down some 25K, even today I can see the green shoots and I am 2K plus in a considerable big holding of GILD.

    Will FTR come out of the woods? Any once guess, but you will need patience, if you feel insecure get out.

    Hope you all have a great day


  90. Wires ;  Up here in Canada.  I have a cable connection running into my Igloo.  If my connection freezes i simply go outside, unplug the cable, scrape the frost off and plug it back in. Works great. Wireless is a fad


  91. speed/Aquila – I'm not in Seoul, I'm on the DGIST campus, and not there at the moment. Nothing blazing for the computers in the office or home (although better than you're getting for sure); Koreans don't really use the desktop or even laptop computers much. Everything happens on phones and to a lesser extent on tablets of one sort or another. I'll let you all know when I get back to Korea what my actual speeds look like. Could be interesting. You can do a tour of my campus if you're interested – we live in H301: http://www.dgist.ac.kr/virtualtour/


  92. MU – What a great trending stock. 

    Has been hugging the 50dMA line since last May.


  93. FTRPR – someone asked about this yesterday I think.. They stay doing just what they were doing, as specified in the terms. You are going to keep getting your same dividend payments (now yielding about 42%) until conversion, at which time you will receive (split adjusted) shares per the rate specified (between 20 to 1702173 shares of common per share of preferred. You can find a summary here: http://investor.frontier.com/sec.cfm  

    and the whole offer here:

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-OJWDG/4166028316x0xS1193125-15-215213/20520/filing.pdf


  94. that is 17.02173…


  95. Snow > Thanks, great campus! ….. Looks a lot more modern than many local GREATEST in the World.


  96. I am a little surprised that the news on Donald Juniors pre-election meetings with Russian operatives is not having more of an affect on the market.  


  97. Phil – " Here's a good test for the group: who here does not pay for a phone or cable company to have a wired connection to their home?  We are wealthy people in the most advanced country in the world. If anyone has figured out how to do without wired lines, it would be us. Anyone?  They have been saying they will solve the last mile since I was a teenager. So far, still not there. "

    It's only all you can eat, if you can get it…  Like running a cigarette ad on TV or a POTUS telling the industrial military complex to FU and living to talk about it, breaching the last mile is not allowed. Not even in f-ing Cuba where the wire is shit and speed worse than.  The technology has been there for quite some time.  You can't get it, because it's not offered and for a good reason.

    A large consulting firm with the initials Many Wasted Hours, who prided themselves and bragged about bending over their clientele for unnecessary millions, wanted to sell the client on a $10M – three year project.  To construct three 100 ft microwave towers to connect two plants (six miles apart) and HQ with a 100Mbs connection.  

    I bent them over and gave them the Jabo treatment, with a bit fatty 350Mbps pipeline via Trango 11Ghz Microwave radios with Ubiquiti  (UBNT love that stock) NSMS near line of sight backhaul radios.  We did it in one week at a cost of $25K.  That $1.3B consulting firm put out a bounty on me, no joke.

    That was point to point, similar technology exists for multipoint, viz. just one, WiMax designed in 2001 for 40mbsec (up to 1GB since 2011) to provide a wireless alternative to cable and digital subscriber line (DSL) for "last mile" broadband access.  

    But there is far too much political clout from what used to be called Ma Bell and their industry. We don't want anything resembling that widely implemented, we will pay you and hire lobbyists to implement this standard.  Big cable, telco mantra: Just keep charging more, for less and smile while your fucking the customer. 

    FYI, my friend that helped me, FU's Crudcast, every chance he gets, its perfectly legal (much like his involvement in hacking Ma Bell and ties to the Weathermen, I can't go into details) and he relishes every moment. Surprised he has not had to deal with those megalomanics like I did and out.


  98. There is something operating very strange in this market. Scottmi I remember you saying as soon as you put the sale order in, the stock reversed fast. Had it happen twice so far and couldn't get out to take the profit. Now I do a 5% under the LAST bid to be sure I can get out. Puts in Nflx and Tsla and they hit right on, but I readjusted over and over which took me to break-even> Couldn't fathom the action. Has to be all automated. I can see why you do the futures now, because this is sooo strange. The only time it goes fast is when I'm taking a loss.


  99. Pirate – any thinly traded vehicle is going to act that way, be it an underlying stock or more often, an option. Fake offers and wide spreads are rampant when there isn't any real trading. If the rug gets pulled out in days ahead, going to be margin calls and ugliness.  As Phil says, Cash is good!


  100. Denlundy – Rump-sons tweets roil market, it did, scroll up to Rump Jr.


  101. GE – such a tease! keeps tempting me to add, I wait.


  102. I've used cell exclusively for many years now. Only wire is for internet through Verizon and looking at changing that to Fios, get offers at least weekly. Directv for me too, but Fios would bundle TV and internet for less than they charge… at least until they nickel and dime me to death with add on charges for equipment etc, the crooks.


  103. Wise words Yodi, thanks!

    Trump/Den – I don't think people know what to make of it anymore. There seems to be no penalty for anything these guys do. As Trump once said,  he could shoot somebody on Camera and his supporters still wouldn't walk away from him. I guess that privilege extends to his family as well.

    WiMAX/Naybob – There's one they buried but good!

    Fast/Pirate -another good reason to scale in for the long term. Then those moves against you turn to your advantage.


  104. I have curtailed my trading. Nflx & tsla are not thinly traded; that's why I was so surprised. I stick with the largest vol movers.After eating a big loss that was a win within 2 days, I'm very wary. Out in the hinterlands we have fiber optic lines that were taxpayer funded, but they were put in rural areas for "access." However the monthly charges for just basic is very high and most people can't afford it. We are going to just streaming-have Roku.


  105. FTR / Phil – How does it work with the dividend on reverse-split like what they did? Right now on Finviz they show a $0.16 dividend which is like 1%. I imagine that it's pre-split. Will that go to $0.96?


  106. Wire/Mukden –  but you would still be an FTR customer.    That's the point I'm making, as much as we like to think Wireline is dead, the fact of the matter is we all have it and we do not have any real plans to get rid of it in the near future. That's why FTR can be comfortable projecting  A low rate of attrition.   Also, keep in mind they specialize in serving areas that are underserved by competition. I'm sure they are going to use the base they bought from Verizon to do the same in California,  Texas and Florida. All three states have huge middles that are underserviced and plenty of poor people to run under FTRs  Government subsidy programs.   

    Dividend/StJ –  we have to see what they will announce but, logically, it will go up to 15x.   If they killed it, they would be paying down 10% of their debt per year –  that's when the stock would hit $12 and I will BUYBUYBUY!


  107. Phil – "WiMAX/Naybob – There's one they buried but good!"

    Just the tip o the iceberg, I always defer to this as a truism.  And you should appreciate that, fake oil and all.  You might remember that one, just put up with the stupid commercial its worth it.  The old lady is howling about pre dinner cocktails, what does it take to get a drink in this joint? Barkeep get hoppin my friends are thirsty, stay thirsty and Out.


  108. Buy BABA…


  109. A little too much baba methinks.


  110. I have not had a Data plan for 3 years And, I have been using Free Wifi hotspots for all my communications.  And, Magic Jack for phone calls or LINE ID.   Exception, was when I signed up for PSW, it requires high speed broad  for trading   


  111. Muck – "A little too much baba methinks."

    Post dinner, just ran into some of this. Yes Sir…. good night to all, enjoy and Out.


  112. Ahhh… '75, just starting high school… yes, good jams indeed.


  113. FTR – couldnt resist the Jan 2019 $10 puts at $3.65 .. Breakeven $6.35 :)  


  114. For me:

    Cable Internet

    kind of a cord cutter with Direct TV Now, NFLX, HULU


  115.  I'm old school – dial up, rotary phone, rabbit ear TV, and an e-mail that ends with aol.  I just now splurged for a Moto Razr.



  116. Proposed California climate deal takes aim at toxic air



  117. OPEC says more cuts are off the table





  118. Cryptocurrency Ethereum is crashing


  119. Lavrov: Moscow mulls retaliatory steps in diplomatic row with U.S.


  120. Snap shares drop after downgrade from lead underwriter Morgan Stanley




  121. Good morning!

    Europe is up but only because they closed when our markets were low (11:30) yesterday, so they are just now getting their chance to buy back in.  

    I mean, imagine thinking that the son of the President colluding with Russians to influence a US election is a big deal?  What is this, 1953?  It's OK now to win at all costs, even if it means working with enemies of the state or even terrorists, if it suits our purposes.  Arms for hostages arming the founders of ISIS - where do we sign?  

    Image result for reagan taliban

    Image result for shah of iran nixon connection

    Image result for shah of iran nixon connection

    What a proud tradition the Republicans have!  

    Not that the Democrats are innocent – I just saw this on Facebook, which some idiot thinks "proves" the Democrats are just as bad as Republicans when cozying up to fascist dictators and religious zealots:

    Image result for shah of iran nixon connection

    The difference is subtle, you may have to ponder it for a while…  if you are a Republican!  

    Our Futures are basically flat so far – that's not good with Europe up half a point. 

    The Senate is still trying to get that Health Care Bill passed:

    Senate Delays Recess as Health Bill’s Fate Hangs in Balance

    Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the chamber would begin its break two weeks late, as he aims to pass a bill that likely will retain two ACA taxes on high earners. 318

    Notice Trump Jr claims to have released the entire Email chain yet the first Email on his list says RE: Russia – Clinton and is clearly the middle of a conversation.  Also, Team Trump claims she wasn't a Government official but the Email says "Emin asked that I schedule a meeting with you and The Russian Government attorney who is flying of from Moscow for this Thursday" to which Trump Jr replies "How about 3 at our offices?"  

    Still, the average Conservative following this thinks this was innocent because the Trumps say it was and they don't actually read the Email – they simply take Trumps' word for it.  Trump Jr. committed a Federal crime with Manafort and Kushner and then they all lied about it to get their security clearances and then worked to cover it up before being forced to turn it over (because the NYT was going to anyway).  

    “This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump,” Goldstone wrote to Trump Jr. “ “If it’s what you say I love it,” he replied.

     

    “The emails are simply put damning as a legal matter,” explains Ryan Goodman, a former Defense Department special counsel and current editor of the legal site Just Security. “The text of the emails provide very clear evidence of participation in a scheme to involve the Russian government in federal election interference, in a form that is prohibited by federal criminal law.”

    Jens David Ohlin, a law professor at Cornell University, is even blunter: “It’s a shocking admission of a criminal conspiracy.”

    All good for you guys???

    On the same day Donald Trump Jr. confirmed the meeting with Mr. Goldstone—two days before the meeting took place—the elder Mr. Trump at a rally promised to give a “major speech” days later that would address “all of the things that have taken place with the Clintons.”

    Meanwhile, here's our big story of the day:

    Yellen to Address Interest Rates, Balance Sheet

    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen heads to Capitol Hill to address the House Financial Services Committee and to take questions from lawmakers on the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates and unwind assets.


  122. LOL, all good Phil… Bengazi!!!


  123. Even if convicted Daddy can just pardon him.  It is truly depressing to watch what is happening.  The UK is bad enough but the U.S has taken the entire thing to a new level.


  124. CL… looks like EIA report was positive.

    EIA Petroleum Inventories

    EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -7.6M barrels vs. -2.85M consensus, -6.3M last week.

    Gasoline -1.6M barrels vs. +1.15M consensus, -3.7M last week.

    Distillates +3.1M vs. +1.13M consensus, -1.9M last week.

    Futures +2.62% to $46.22.