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  1. phil

    Cashing/Tangled – As you may know from previous cash-outs, we take winners off the table (like AAXN) and let losers play out (as long as we still have faith).  The LTP has $1.2M out of $1.6M cash already, there''s no sense in taking a loss if we think we can work a position – that's why we have a $1.1M profit in the first place – sticking to the system over the LONG-TERM.  

    FU CBI!  Wow, people really get killed for missing these days.  Won't be pretty if it spreads.  Now we're back to test the lows:

     And Burr is right, if we do hold the June lows, now would be a great time to establish a more aggressive bull call spread.  Not hurrying into it though, I don't actually like the sound of the noises management is making.  As I said earlier, if those Q1 issues are not "one time" (and they aren't) – we need to take a much closer look at these guys before committing more cash.  Also, it's forgotten that we closed profitable calls on CBI when they ran up last fall – this 2019 position is what's left.

    "Although our second quarter results are disappointing, we are taking decisive actions to improve our operating performance and strengthen the company's financial position," said Patrick K. Mullen, President and Chief Executive Officer of CB&I. "We have initiated a comprehensive cost reduction program and suspended our dividend. We are injecting additional rigor and discipline into our execution and risk management processes, further strengthening the integration between our E&C and Fabrication Services operating groups, and accelerating the implementation of innovative practices and technologies. We remain committed to our integrated self-perform model, which we believe will enable us to generate attractive earnings and cash flows over time.

    "Additionally, we announced today that we are pursuing a sale of our Technology business, which we believe will unlock significant value for stakeholders. We plan to use the proceeds from the sale to significantly enhance CB&I's financial strength and flexibility by eliminating the majority of our debt and reinvesting in our E&C and Fabrication Services businesses. We envision a bright future for CB&I as a highly focused company with tightly integrated EPC and fabrication capabilities serving the LNG, petrochemical, refining and gas power generation markets." 

    Technology Operating Group 
    Technology operating group revenue was $72.8 million, an increase of 13 percent from the year-ago quarter due to increased petrochemical licensing. The Technology group reported operating income of $21.5 million compared to $23.1 million in second quarter of 2016. Operating income margin was 29.5 percent, down from 35.7 percent in the year-ago quarter, due largely to mix. The Technology group's new awards in the second quarter were $148.5 million, up 38 percent from the year-ago quarter. Backlog as of June 30, 2017, was $1.2 billion.

    So a non-issue to revenues if they let Tech Group go but how much would they get for it with just $300M in annual revenues and $80M in profit.  I guess if it were TSLA, the answer would be $4Bn but, sadly, it's not so they'll be lucky to get $1Bn.

    CBI/Learner – I'll want to go over this one very carefully as these numbers are much uglier than we thought.  Remember, this was not totally unexpected:

    http://www.philstockworld.com/2017/06/18/philstockworld-may-portfolio-review-members-only/

    • CBI – Is $15 finally the floor or are they teasing?  Let's roll the 2019 $27.50 calls ($1.50) to the $15 calls ($4.45) for $3(ish) and buy back the short $37.50s (0.70) and see what happens.

     

    CBI/DC – If they are right then CBI will be an $8 stock in short order and it will take several years to work off the debt.  We started with CBI on 9/22/16 by selling $25 puts for $5 so net $20, call that our entry on 1,500 shares and add the $4,500 loss on the spread so net $23 is our entry on 1,500 shares ($34,500).  

    At the moment, CBI is $13.15 and we can sell 15 of the 2019 $12.50 puts for $3.60 so that's our DD and we can sell 15 of the $17.50 calls for $2.60 and now our net drops to $16.80/17.15 and it's 3,000 shares if assigned at $51,450.

    So assuming CBI goes to $8, we DD again by selling $8 puts for $2 (guessing) and $12.50 calls for $2.50 and then our net would be $12.65/12.58 on 6,000 shares (if assigned) for $75,480.  With the stock at $8 we'd have a $25,000 loss, which is one allocation block and by now it's 2023 and we'd want to sell 60 2025 $12.50 calls again (no puts) and, even if we only get $1.50, that's still $9,000 back on our $75,000 (12%), which is a pretty good dividend while we wait for the stock to rebound.  

    So, unless CBI actually goes BK (even $4 is recoverable), as long as they are around until 2035 we have an excellent chance of recovering all of our cash and whatever our 6,000 shares of stock are worth at the time would be a bonus.

    And that's on a stock that dropped 66% on us!  That's the key to long-term value investing – if you start at a good price with stocks that will ultimately stay in business (and the ones making actual money tend to do that), then you'll eventually get your money back – even on the dogs.  

    Submitted on 2017/08/04 at 2:45 pm

    CBI/Batman – I agree but they may want to kitchen sink this quarter while they can blame it on the old CEO.  It's always a good time to take the write-downs.

    So good example of a play that's in progress during a down quarter.  We have a plan to roll with it but FIRST we verify whether or not our original investing premise is still intact.  That will not be until next week, when we see what else happens to them.





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Zero Hedge

Gartman: "Bloomberg Has Damaged Our Reputation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One day after we reported that "Dennis Gartman Blows Up With Investment In Riot Blockchain", Bloomberg followed up with a virtually identical article, titled "Risky crypto bet blows up Dennis Gartman's retirement account."

And yet, oddly, despite being one of the most read features on Bloomberg this morning, the title was surprisingly changed, to the more bland "...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump's infrastructure plan rests on some rickety assumptions

 

Trump's infrastructure plan rests on some rickety assumptions

The new plan is supposed to boost the construction of new roads, bridges and other public works projects. AP Photo/Seth Perlman

Caroline Nowacki, Stanford University and Kate Gasparro, Stanford University

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]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

...

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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For February 22, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
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Chart School

Sellers Come In But Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan

Markets were set up for sellers with most indices experiencing broad selling. However, the one index which looked set up best for shorts - the Semiconductor Index - actually managed to gain.  Anyone taking up Friday's short in the latter Index will have been stopped out but another shorting opportunity may have presented itself. Technicals haven't returned to becoming net bullish but only the ADX remains to shift.
 


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As Bitcoin Nears $11,000, Here's A History Of Its Biggest Ups And Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency rebound off Feb 5th's bloodbath lows (below $6,000 for Bitcoin) has been impressive, as a 'mysterious' massive buyer 'bought the dip' and momentum took care of the rest.

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What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

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Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

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Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

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CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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