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Which Way Wednesday – S&P 2,500 or Bust!

Here we are again.

August 8th was "Trendless Tuesday – Stuck at the Market Top" with the S&P (/ES) at 2,480, which made for a nice shorting line and a $3,000 per contract gain back to 2,420.  The Dow (YM) was at 22,050, the Nasdaq (/NQ) was 5,950 and the Russell (/TF) was 1,430.   At the moment, we're focused on shorting /TF with 10 short contracts at an average of 1,419 and they are currently down $140 per contract and we'll see how the day plays out.  

We have a Live Trading Webinar at 1pm (EST) this afternoon and we'll look for some good opportunities there.  We had a lot of great trade ideas in last week's webinar and you can catch up on that one HERE.  In last week's Webinar, Biodiesel Chris noted LIT and SQM were both great Lithium trades (1:04), based on the proliferation of electric cars and the need for more batteries and LIT was $34.59 while we looked at it and Sociedad Quimica Minera (SQM) was $49.99 and both have popped higher so both great calls and worth looking into as the future is very bright for Lithium. 

On SQM, we liked selling the April $40 puts for $1.70, which nets you in for $38.30, which is now 23% off the current price and you can still sell those puts to get your foot in on the very hot Lithium trade.  Those are the kinds of macro trades we like to discuss in the Webinars and kudos to BDC for bringing it to our attention.

Meanwhile, keep in mind that Lithium is "just" a $3Bn industry, which is a spec compared to $90Bn worth of Aluminum, $115Bn worth of Iron or $170Bn worth of Gold being traded each year.  Nickel is another battery component and $21Bn of that is currently mined and Graphite is also used and is being used in a lot of cool stuff ($15Bn/yr), so that's another one I want to discuss in this afternoon's webinar with our Members.

Nothing, of course, holds a candle to Big Daddy Oil, which is a $1.7Tn annual consumable and oil has been on a wild ride all summer, ranging from $44 to $50, a 13.6% range is a $200Bn price swing in the market though, to put that in perspective, US Equities can move $1Tn in a day (2%) – so maybe not so crazy.  

Yesterday's API Report showed the largest-ever drawdown of gasoline at 7.9Mb and that was through Saturday, caused by the double hit of the Texas refinery outages from Harvey and people fleeing Irma and filling up their tanks in Florida.  That's kind of like creating the demand of a holiday weekend in the middle of a gas shortage.  

All the stops are being pulled out to use this crisis to OPEC's advantage as that cartel just released a report saying they have lowered production (in our time of crisis) to 32.75Mb/d, which is about 100,000 lower than July and OPEC's friends/employees at the IEA have increased their demand forecast for oil by 1.4Mb/d – which just so happens to be exactly enough to let OPEC roll back their production cuts and gives Saudi's Aramco a better valuation going into their upcoming IPO – isn't that convenient?  

Meanwhile, don't be fooled as the US is projected to increase their own production of oil by about 1Mb/d and, if oil does make it to $50, it will be a lot more than that!  We're skeptical, of course, and looking to short Oil (/CL) Futures ahead of this morning's API Inventory Report at 10:30.  We were hoping it would hit $49 but $48.75 is the best we've got this morning so we may as well take it as a short entry, with tight stops above as we'd much rather use the $49 line or $48.50 if it breaks lower.

Over at the NYMEX, there are 308Mb worth of fake, Fake, FAKE!!! orders for October delivery and they all have to be rolled to longer FAKE!!! orders by next Wednesday so that's just 6 trading days to move 308,000 open contract but there are already 419,000 FAKE!!! open orders for November delivery and another 339,000 stuffed into Dec and even January has 195,000 open contracts already and that's a whopping 1.26 BILLION barrels worth of order slated for delivery to Cushing, OK – a facility that can only handle 50Mb/month.  Aside from that, consider that the US only imports a net of 5.5Mb/day so, even with 120 days to play with – that would only be 660Mb for the ENTIRE country – that's what I mean when I call those orders FAKE!!!

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Oct'17 48.34 48.77 48.12 48.68 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.45 170097 48.23 300216 Call Put
Nov'17 48.85 49.26 48.61 49.14 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.39 72836 48.75 417234 Call Put
Dec'17 49.26 49.64 49.02 49.50 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.33 36312 49.17 337816 Call Put
Jan'18 49.54 49.91 49.34 49.77 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.29 17437 49.48 195387 Call Put
Feb'18 49.73 50.13 49.58 49.97 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.25 7721 49.72 73186 Call Put
Mar'18 49.84 50.22 49.75 50.11 09:40
Sep 13

 


-
0.21 9183 49.90 148087 Call Put

Since they have absolutely no intention of having those orders delivered, the NYMEX traders (who work for oil companies who have them fake trades to jack up the prices paid by consumers – yet it's never investigated) must either roll or sell their orders by the 20th.  Usually they roll them but, at the moment, the Nov contracts are 0.50 higher than October, so that's a very expensive roll and impacts their bonuses.  And, of course, since we had a build in oil of 6.2Mb last week (per API) – it's going to be very hard to find buyers for October delivery.  

For now, we're going to keep using the 8/18 oil trading levels chart we created for our Members, which predicted the range would be $45-$50 moving forward and the closer we get to $50, the more interested we are in setting up a short.  Now that the Holiday is gone, however, we have less fear of an upside catalyst and OPEC and the IEA already made a bull push, so we'll initiate a short here and see how it plays out.  

I feel good about shorting oil into next Wednesday's rollover and the Oil ETF (USO) is at $9.93 and the Oct $11 puts are $1.12, which is just 0.05 in premium.  If oil falls 2.5% that would be a 0.25 drop in USO, which isn't too exciting but it's a nice 20% quick gain.  On the Futures contract (/CL), a 2.5% drop is $1.22 and we make $1,220 per contract.  THAT is why we like playing the Futures.

Come join us at our Live Trading Webinar this afternoon, where we'll practice some Futures Trading and talk about how we can make money from battery tech!  

 


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  1. Good Morning,

    It looks literally like the wheels are coming off Tesla Model S and X cars. It appears that there are multiple design, material or manufacturing faults with Tesla's car suspension that leads to failure of the suspension and wheels dislodging from normal position often resulting in a crash, some fatal. Check out the pictures on this site:

    http://teslabears.club/t/new-thread-keefs-complaints-with-photographs/107/36


  2. ~~JWN +6% (reports the company to go private.)


  3. This is a market that is looking for any excuse to go higher – Florida was not destroyed, let's go for 2500! Doesn't matter that it will cost $200B to fix the damage and that tax cuts will add to our deficit.


  4. Good Morning Everyone!

    It's webinar day! 1pm Eastern!

     http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/RBAJTWEQ


  5. Coffee will go higher… eventually:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/coffee-vs-climate-change-the-news-is-not-good/

    A new analysis suggests that climate change on its own could cause coffee producing areas in the Americas to drop production by roughly 80 percent. But the remaining productivity might drop even further unless we ensure the crops have access to pollinators.



  6. Good morning…. Phil, what is your exit target on NG/honey badger?   We are headed into winter demand days shortly, I was just curious if you plan to hold this for some time or this is also a quick entry/exit that you typically do on futures trades.  ..thanks



  7. Good Morning.


  8. Face ID not pleasing everybody:

    http://mashable.com/2017/09/12/apple-iphone-x-not-worth-it/#hfPQ_Cn6kPqz

    At a time when concerns about authorities intruding on your digital data are at an all time high, the idea of a phone that the police can unlock by pointing it at your face does not necessarily have wide appeal.

    I had it on my Android phone a couple of years back (it's not really a new feature) and stopped using it because it's not convenient to bring up your phone to your face each time you want to unlock it, let alone the security issues!


  9. Good morning!  

    /TF jumped up to 1,426 so I added 4 more and now avg is 1,421 on 14 but I'm not thrilled.  

    Dollar popped too, very interesting.  

    /NKD is loving it – they will make a nice short too:

    Oil easy entry at $48.75, hopefully we don't regret it:

    Keep in mind a lot of traders are only first hearing about OPEC and the IEA and seeing API and only just starting their day so it's often the case you get these mini-rallies as people start their trading day.

    Report in 10 mins – we'll see.


  10. TSLA/Enfil – Wow!   Of course that's a bear site so take it with a grain of salt.  They are up today, testing $365 and I still hope for a short at $380.

    JWN/Albo – I expect a few retailers will at these levels.  

    Big Chart – Looking super-strong. 

    Coffee/StJ – Doesn't take into account that areas that don't currently produce coffee will start but still, that's the long-term disruption that keeps me going back to the well whenever coffee dips.  

    Also, there's this:

    Rise Of The Robot Bees: Tiny Drones Turned Into Artificial Pollinators …

    /NG/Learner – Oh I'd have a stop at $3.05 now, or $3.36 if you are in /NGF8 or $3.26 on /NGZ7 because it was a nice pop and then we get out and wait for a dip to reload.  You have to play the channel with /NG:

    Taxes/StJ – Yet no political candidate seems to be able to simply put this chart on TV and explain to people why this is wrong.  

    FTR/DC – Thanks.  

    Face/StJ – I am pretty happy with the thumb unlock I have now but, in the big picture, AAPL wants your phone to be your credit card, so they need maximum security.  

    Oil inventories – Oil up 5.9Mb, Gasoline down 8.5Mb didn't see distillates but no surprise as it's about the same as API – game on for shorts!  


  11. Distillates down 3.2Mb but it's all based on a one-time event and now demand has been equally destroyed going forward.  If there are no more hurricanes, who is going to want barrels for November delivery?

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +5.9M barrels vs. +3.2M consensus, +4.6M last week.
    • Gasoline -8.4M vs. -2.1M consensus, -3.2M last week.
    • Distillates -3.2M barrels vs. -1.5M consensus, -1.4M last week.
    • Futures +1.1% to $48.76

  12. StJ – exactly, why does income get differentiated into special treatment like that? Income is income. Even at the IRS, the highest level rs basically known as "worldwide income." It really should all be the same.

    In my utopian society you work hard and that rate is less, say 15% max. You sit around in your hammock earning capital gains, ThaT's the 35-40% rate. If people can make free money, just because you multiply by 0.6 doesn't kill the incentive make free money. I know this will never happen because the "capital gains" tax rate is like cherished American right, like owning 50 caliber weapons, and makes about as much sense – retired mega-billionaire investor Warren Buffet paying 20% maximum tax while a married middle class couple working 2 jobs each pays 35%+ all in. That makes so much sense!


  13. Wow those Cleveland Indians – hope they win 1 more! A team winning about 0.600 of the time has a 0.6^20 chance of winning 20 straight, or about 1 in 27,000


  14. Phil – RB – any play after the weekly report?


  15. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.’s (TEVA) short interest increased to 45.76 million from the previous level of 41.93 million. Shares were trading at $19.33, in a 52-week range of $15.22 to $52.66.


  16. That increase was from Aug 15th to August 31st.


  17. BDC

    did u say wow Cleveland Indians—-I have not heard wow and Cleveland put together for years —also Phil not a word from u :-)


  18. Cleveland Rocks, Savi….. :)


  19. The more I read about the single payer health care system the more I like it.  Just wondering how long it would take to get treatment at a great hospital if everyone has access to it.  If I had a brain tumor for instance, I want to go to the Mayo Clinic.  Would I have to wait 6 months for an appointment?  And I'm not saying everyone shouldn't have the same right to choose the best of the best, I do believe that, just wondering what that would do to wait times.


  20. Ha 1020   — not sure about the underlying sarcasm ;-)


  21. rustle – Single Payer is a No-Brainer….. ;)


  22. rustle – it would be helpful to look at other developed countries that have universal healthcare for this answer. Since they all do, there's no shortage of comparables.

    Lithium – there's a LOT of problems with this video, but we've discussed lithium availability and pricing before. The concept being presented here is the "experience curve," which is a little thin, but the main messaging that "lithium is the future" is becoming much more main stream. I feel like this is the reason investors are piling into lithium plays currently.


  23. Savi – That's what I've been told…. :)


  24. Hey look, another example of guns not killing people. You never would've noticed if I didn't post it, because this is barely local news in the US. Would be front page news for two months in Japan.

    Those 7 women, whoever you were, I bet you were great people. I'm sorry you lived in the US, otherwise you would be alive.


  25. XLF bumping it's head on the 50 day, momentum can't get positive… what do you think about a short on financials here? Rally seems a bit overdone to me.

    Oil… shorts covering. 3 wave correction last month, the bull has awoken.


  26. Guns – Something we Americans can be proud of…. :(


  27. Lots of other countries have single-payer systems and have longer life expectancy. That should be the first criteria! Next one, they spend a lot less…


  28. Capital gains/BDC – Well it's SUPPOSED to encourage long-term savings and help retired people who depend on interest for income but all that can be fixed by simply keeping 15% on the first $50,000 (median household income) and then + 5% for each additional $50,000 up to 60% on gains over $600,000/yr.   Just doing that would add $1Tn/yr to Treasury.  

    Cleveland/BDC, Savi - Totally amazing.  Cubs 1935 was the only team to win 21 straight (the 1916 Giants had a tie getting to 26) so that's 20 teams x 80 seasons is 1,600 chances but then we have to look at how many 20-game chances and that's 8 per season so now the teams have rolled the 27,000 sided dice 12,800 times.   Streaks are fun.  

    Oh wait, actually, it's not 8 chances per season because the odds reset after each loss so, even with only 60 losses, that's still 60 chances per season to start a 20-win streak (or you could say each win begins a new chance) – until you get to the final 20 games, of course.   So lots and lots of chances explains why there are lots and lots of long winning streaks (even if you assume a win is random, because it's not). 

    Would be good for Cleveland to beat the Cubs record as it would be good turnaround after the Cubs beat them in the series.  

    /RB/Bulls – Don't ask me, I'm down a quick $800 on my /CL!  I think they are both a "sell on the news" thing but we're heading into the weekend and OPEC is making a big push to take $55 back on /BZ, which is $49+ for us but it's BS and I very much doubt they can sustain it.  

    Dollar blasting up at 92.40!  

    Hospitals/Rustle – Well, in Europe rich people still buy private insurance over and above the public care.  That gives them fast access to special clinics and hospitals but it's pretty cheap as it's just catastrophic care, really and the government still kicks in for "normal" coverage.  Meanwhile the defining variable becomes time and quality.  If you need treatment soon, you'll pick a lower quality hospital with less wait, so it kind of sorts itself out.  There's a paper on it here

    Doctor Wait Times Soar 30% In Major U.S. Cities – Forbes

    Just wait to see how bad this gets when Trump kicks out Dreamer Doctors and Nurses while discouraging other medical immigrants from even coming here at the same time as our population is rapidly aging.  

    Guns/BDC – Yeah, I did see that and sailed right past it.  Just another day livin' in the USA.  

    XLF/Mkucs – I hope it's overdone, we're short in the STP.  

    • Alongside the Cleveland Indians' 20-game win streak, stocks are eyeing their own record-setter.
    • Checking the data all the way back to 1926, Ben Carlson finds there's never been a calendar year without at least one down month for the S&P 500. Through August of this year, the S&P 500 has been up every single month.
    • "Call it whatever you want, but from the election the $SPX is up 16.29% (18.33% TR) or $2.04T, with income tax reform coming to bat," tweeted Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
    • One of the biggest beneficiaries from tax reform would be the tech sector, the stalwart of the U.S. stock market since Nov. 8 (up nearly 30%), as it would let companies bring back overseas profits.

    • Once the ECB begins to taper its QE program, the yield on the German 10-year Bund could "pretty quickly" jump to 1% from its current 0.4%, says Jeff Gundlach. Since everything's tied together, that could be the catalyst for a big move upward in U.S. rates as well, he adds.
    • "You have massive risk at these levels.”

    • "It blows my mind," says Nuveen's Bob Doll.
    • Austria this week sold $3.5B of 100-year paper priced to yield just 2.1%. The offering had more than $11B in orders.

    • Utility companies say ~5M customers, or ~10M people, remain without power this morning in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas following Hurricane Irma, down from a peak of more than 7.8M customers on Monday.
    • NextEra Energy's (NYSE:NEE) Florida Power & Light, the state’s biggest power company, says 2.5M of the ~5M homes and businesses it serves still have no power, but that's down from a peak of 3.6M-plus on Monday.
    • Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), which serves northern and central Florida, reports 925K outages, down from a peak of 1.2M on Monday.
    • Southern Co.'s (NYSE:SO) Georgia Power says 360K of its customers are currently without power.

    • AMC Entertainment (AMC +5.3%), IMAX (IMAX +2.5%) and Cinemark (CNK +1.4%) are higher as media execs paint a bright picture on the U.S. box office at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia Conference.
    • The beastly $125M already brought in by It even with Florida and Texas reeling from hurricanes is a major talking point at the conference.
    • Dolby Laboratories (DLB +9.7%) is also rallying on the day. Apart from the theater good cheer, Dolby is seen benefiting from the new lineup of Apple products.
    • The restaurant sector is having another strong day on some post-hurricane relief trading. The general tone from restaurant execs has been positive on the pace of recovery in hurricane-impacted regions.
    • Notable gainers today include Chuy's Holdings (CHUY +3%), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB +3%), Darden Restaurants (DRI +3.3%), Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY +2.8%), Del Taco (TACO +3.3%), El Pollo Loco (LOCO +2.4%), DineEquity (DIN +2.8%), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE +2.2%), Ruby Tuesday (RT +2.5%), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +2.6%), Brinker International (EAT +2.9%), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +1.8%) and Chipotle (CMG +1.4%).
    • Related ETF: MENU.
    • Previously: Restaurant stocks recover from pre-Irma slide (Sept. 12)
    • So much for the words saying last year's wireless price wars would stay in last year.
    • With Apple's new iPhones unveiled, AT&T (T +0.2%) has kicked off promotions among the Big Four by offering a buy one/get one free promotion starting Friday on iPhone 8 and 8 Plus among others (but not yet the flagship $999 iPhone X).
    • That's a new position for one of the market's two leaders, considering last year T-Mobile (TMUS-0.2%) was first and most aggressive with the promotions (but is sitting back this time, with just a $300 trade-in credit for those buying one of the newest iPhones).
    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ), meanwhile, is offering a $300 credit on iPhone 8 and 8 Plus with trade-in. And Sprint (S -0.1%) has introduced a half-off lease for the 8 and 8 Plus for those trading in their iPhone 
    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) aims to expand marketing operations in Asia and wants 20% of sales from its fuel stations worldwide to come from recharging electric vehicles and low carbon fuels by 2025, the company's head of refining, trading and marketing tells Reuters.
    • John Abbott says Shell, with 43K fuel stations in 80 countries, seeks expansion in China, India and Mexico, where it sees fossil fuel growth in the next decade, while also remaining focused on a future of where demand for alternatives to gasoline and diesel cars would rise.
    • “Shell will be part of leading the de-carbonizing of the energy system. We have to accept that is the way the world is going,” Abbott says.
    • Electric and hybrid-engine vehicles currently represent only a fraction of the world’s 1B car fleet, but Shell forecasts it will account for 25% by 2040.
    • Abbott says Shell wants ~20% of fuels sold to motorists by 2025 to be low carbon intensity, including biofuels, battery recharging and liquefied natural gas.
    • Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM+2.5% premarket after BofA Merrill Lynch upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral with a $65 price target, hiked from $49, as the "best positioned lithium story" should extend the rally that has lifted shares nearly 8% this week and 27% higher over the past month.
    • BAML notes the U.K., France, Germany and China have all announced plans to eventually ban sales of gasoline and diesel cars and replace them with electric vehicles, and calculates that roughly half of marginal demand for cars in the world will be for EVs in 15-20 years.
    • BAML goes on to forecast implied global demand for lithium of 640K tons by 2025, more than triple current demand, and the firm says SQM is the best positioned player in the lithium industry.
    • Ovum analyst Daniel Gleeson tells CNBC that the later shipping date of the iPhone X could hurt Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Q4 earnings.
    • Gleeson says customers might wait on purchasing the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus, which are following the typical launch schedule, in order to see the iPhone X in person before making a device decision. 
    • The analyst notes that the typical late September launch becomes a “very very big sales event for Apple” that “always helped perk up their late Q3 numbers and led into very strong Q4s” while this year might alter that trend with a weak Q3 and stronger Q4.  
    • Gleeson thinks the first week sales of the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus could come in at under half of the typical 10M to 12M units.
    • Apple shares are down 0.34%.       
    • Previously: Apple iPhone Event 2017: Live updates (Sept. 12)
    • Shares in Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) suppliers slumped overnight after the new iPhone X disappointed with a later than expected shipping date, on Nov. 3.
    • The $999 price tag could also dent demand for the device in some markets.
    • Across Asia: Zhejiang Crystal-Optech -6.7%, Shenzhen Desay Battery Tech -4.4%, AMS -4.1%, Catcher -5%, Largan -3.8%, Goertek -3.6%, Wistron -3.4%, Shenzhen O-film Tech -3.4%, Pegatron -3.1%, LG Innotek -1.8%, Hon Hai -1.3%, Zhejiang Tony Electronic -1.1%, Han's Laser -1.1%, TSMC -0.5%.

    • Bitcoin fell below $4,000 overnight, continuing its tumble from the all-time high of 5,013.91 set on Sept. 2.
    • Traders have been jittery in the past few days mainly due to media reports suggesting that Chinese authorities are looking to shut down some bitcoin exchanges.
    • Negative comments from major business leaders, like Jamie Dimon, who called the cryptocurrency a "fraud," are also unnerving investors.

  29. Dent is apoplectic… his latest. I know he's a perma bear but this is over the top for him. He isn't the only one pounding the table either.

    Critical Alert! The Economy is About to Get Annihilated!

    I just released a video… with indisputable proof that the greatest crash in history could strike in the next few days.
    In fact, this event will be so devastating I’m convinced it will trigger the greatest depression we’ve ever seen.
    That’s why I’m urging all our readers to watch this shocking video right away.
    Forward this email to everyone you know. Warn your friends and family about this disturbing development, and move fast to protect your wealth.


  30. Dent makes Schiff or Faber look like permabulls


  31. I know, but he does make sense and I do have a sinking feeling that something is gonna break… thinking of looking for beat down high cost gold miners. If gold takes off they will have the biggest gains. Any favorites?


  32. NGL up big today.  Still yielding 15%.


  33. high cost gold miners? :)


  34. The same Harry Dent, who in 2001 predicted :

    ~~ "Despite current upheavals in the markets, author and demographer Harry Dent is standing by his contention that the Dow could hit 36000 by 2007 or 2008."


  35. Oil is getting more competition:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/solar-now-costs-6%C2%A2-per-kilowatt-hour-beating-government-goal-by-3-years/#p3

    On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced that utility-grade solar panels have hit cost targets set for 2020, three years ahead of schedule. Those targets reflect around $1 per watt and 6¢ per kilowatt-hour in Kansas City, the department’s mid-range yardstick for solar panel cost per unit of energy produced (New York is considered the high-cost end, and Phoenix, Arizona, which has much more sunlight than most other major cities in the country, reflects the low-cost end).

    Those prices don’t include an Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which makes solar panels even cheaper. The Energy Department said that the cost per watt was assessed in terms of total installed system costs for developers. That means the number is based on "the sales price paid to the installer; therefore, it includes profit in the cost of the hardware," according to a department presentation (PDF).


  36. Alerts/Mkucs – I'm getting worried about your reading list!  

    Miners/Mkucs – ABX and HMY still cheap.  

    Solar/StJ – That's good news.  

    Webinar time!  


  37. LOL, I get a lot of emails :) That one just grabbed my attention.


  38. I'm on some kind of roll, played 3 online poker tournaments at the same time online last night…

    And won all 3. Woo Hoo! That was fun!


  39. Is just me, or is that webinar link not working for others as well?


  40. yes, so use the Greg link in the yellow box at the beginning of todays chat.


  41. its not working  — go to the one at the top


  42. From the Webinar for the LTP:

    • Sell 5 ALB 2019 $90 puts for $4.30 ($2,150) 
    • Buy 5 ALB 2019 $120 calls for $20 ($10,000) 
    • Sell 5 ALB 2019 $135 calls for $13.50 ($6,750) 

    That will be net $1,100 on the $7,500 spread that's over $2,500 in the money.  It's just dipping out toes into a lithium producer we're interested in.   


  43. muck, where can you actually play these days?


  44. StJL – That WaPo piece is pure spin, sorry but real median household income is lower than it was in 1998.


  45. Phil/CL-are you still short CL?

    Please also post other futures position. Thanks


  46. ravi – he is short at $49. looking for a pullback to $49 to unload a couple. He is on the webinar


  47. ~~Buyout firm CVC Capital Partners is nearing an agreement to buy Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.’s women’s health assets outside the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. Story link: {NSN OW8CZS6S9728 <GO>}

    * Talks are advanced and an agreement could be reached in the next few days,
      the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are
      private. The mostly European assets could be valued at about $800 million,
      the people said.
    * No final decision has been made and other bidders such as Spain’s closely
      held Chemo Group have expressed interest in the assets, the people said.
      Representatives for Teva and Chemo declined to comment. A spokesman for CVC
      didn’t have an immediate comment.
    * Teva, which named Kaare Schultz of H. Lundbeck A/S as its new chief executive
      officer on Monday, is selling assets to pare more than $30 billion in debt.
      This week, the Israeli drugmaker agreed to sell its ParaGard contraceptive
      business to Cooper Cos. for $1.1 billion. The rest of Teva’s U.S. women’s
      health businesshas attracted companies such as Church & Dwight Co. and French
      buyout firm Astorg Partners, people familiar with the matter said last month.
    * Separately, Teva is considering a sale of its European oncology and pain
      assets, which has attracted interest from companies such as Cerberus Capital
      Management and Advent International as well as other drugmakers, people
      familiar with the matter have said.


  48. jabobeast – some good Teva news for you ha. kinda miss your FU posts ;)


  49. Tournaments?/Mkucs – How much did you win on those?

    Sorry if I copied the link wrong.

    Futures/Ravi – Ugh, I'm short 8 /CL at $49 and 15 /TF at 1,421.40 – not my day so far.

    TEVA – Should have covered at $20.  I was waiting to do the reviews but that one was very obviously in need of some profit-locks.  


  50. Trump hosting bi-partisan Tax Reform meeting – that's gotta be some rally fuel until it all falls apart in a tweet storm.  


  51. Phil--don't you think TEVA is worth mid 20s?

    What do you mean by should have covered at 20--profit-locks?


  52. FU bulls4444!!!!!!

    ;-)


  53. Thanks seer! hope they get them completed for even more $$$$




  54. White House, Republican leaders plan to reveal tax cut details in two weeks



  55. Phil/Savi/1020 – Cleveland and Wow – You should worry about my reading list.  I remember arriving at Hopkins in pouring rain, the hack was congenial enough, so I queried:  What's with all the rumors about Cleveland, mistake on the lake, the burning river, etc?   

    His rejoinder: we love our town just the way it is and want to keep it this way. So, we sensationalize that stuff and spread rumors to keep all the fuckin New Yorker's away. 

    I nodded, grinned and thought this is gonna be a fun place, it was. Early mid 90's, I spent the better half of two+ years designing and commissioning a major municipal supervisory control system in Cleveland.  When residents turn on their water spigots, and tampons don't fly out, they can thank me, some still do.

    I still love that Drew Carey and Mimi town , Parma Heights, Solon, the Flats, Jacobs (Progressive), ethnic neighborhood's, great people, food and excepting the summer humidity, it's straight out of The Twilight Zone.  

    If there is an afterlife, one person I would want to meet Rodman Edward, spent 8 formative years at the beginning of his writing career in Cleveland, started writing in radio TV at WLW-AM in Cincinnati, and returned during the 60's to teach.  

    Native Burgess Meredith tied for most Zone episodes (four, with Klugman). Speaking of which Nick of Time (nervous newlywed Shatner), It's a Good Life? (Getting wished into the cornfield by young Will Robinson) and A Stop At Willoughby (Last Stop), all set in Ohio.  Impressions on a young Rod Serling?

    Early mid 90's, I spent the better half of two+ years designing and commissioning a major municipal supervisory control system in Cleveland.  When residents turn on their water spigots, and tampons don't fly out, they can thank me, some still do.

    Sports? Cav's weaseled one from the Dubs.  White Sox, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, Royals, Cubs, whose left to get off the schneid? Albo, Muck, you don't have to worry about Harry Dent and the end of the world. 

    When the Indians do win the WS,  the moment they start celebrating, where ever one happens to be,  the landscape surrounding including oneself, will slowly start to swirl, dissolving into a soft blur and fading into the crystal clarity of darkness, as that will be the official end the world. Not even Jabo's FU's will be able to stop it and Out.



  56. Income / Naybob – Well I can only post what I see. I don't have access to better numbers…


  57. TEVA/Jabob – I don't think it's only worth $20 but, given how hard a time we've had, it would have been smart to sell some premium to lock in some gains as they are not magically out of the woods overnight.

    Well they got the Nas green into the close so all good, I suppose.  


  58. It's just so unreal:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-nifty-gop-trick-will-punish-the-poor-and-increase-the-deficit--at-the-same-time/2017/09/11/6d6c5e6e-972e-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html

    Never accuse Republicans of being uncreative. Once again, they’ve found an innovative way to punish the poor and simultaneously increase budget deficits — all with one nifty trick!

    To pull off this impressive twofer, they would put every American applying for the earned-income tax credit (EITC) through a sort of mini-audit before getting their refund. This would both place huge new burdens on the working poor and divert scarce Internal Revenue Service resources away from other audit targets, such as big corporations, that offer a much higher return on investment.

    But let's not audit millionaires putting money away in tax havens! It's the new war on poverty – we fight the poor.


  59. Thank you Latch


  60. Phil- Thank you


  61. As Bush said – there's a war on poverty. The poor lost.


  62. Now there's WA school shooting. Won't even link to it since no one cares.


  63. Shooting is in my back yard. Thought it was one of the safest schools in the country. Geez


  64. IRBT – strange run up yesterday (like somebody knew something) – only to be followed by a shafting of 15% down today $85.08 (-$15.79). FT says due to Sharkninja on the prowl with a competitor vacuum cleaner priced at $350 versus iRobot's Roomba at $594. IRBT's 88% share of the US robotic vacuums looks vulnerable. Should never have given up the military segment.


  65. We are all getting fleeced StJ, it just hits the poor the hardest. Can't lock them all up, but they try. Disgusting in the land of the free, home of the slave. Richest country on earth elected a clown president. I know I'm pretty sick of the way things are, Empire is in decline. I refuse to fly and be treated like a terrorist. Police state keeps getting worse. Cops are becoming soldiers and it appears that we are the enemy. There are some who are fighting against it, but like 1776, they are a small minority. Congress did just vote against civil asset forfeiture, the article I read called it a stunning victory, wasn't expected to pass. Didn't end it mind you, just put a leash on Jeff Sessions, reinstalled the Obama restrictions they threw out a few months ago. Seriously. It's going to take a lot more to clean this mess up. THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT YOU. Politicians are cheap and the man behind the curtain has more than enough to buy whatever they want. A lot of what the federal government does is not constitutional… but they do it. Brazenly. Most won't dare to try and stop them for fear of loosing what little they have. It is out of control and getting worse, We talk about 20 Trillion like we can even comprehend such a number. Your money is fiat, backed by nothing, controlled by private bankers who aim to own it all. What do you expect?


  66. BDC   Poker… I play on NLOP, it's a free site paid for with advertising, though Adblocker takes care of that. They have 3 money tournaments a week now, $350, $500 and $1000. Not much but enough to make people want to win. I cashed for $161 .They just started a 10 step tournament, Win your way into a $10,000 final, which is the 10th level. I'm on 8 now, but I need to win 2 in a row to get there, and that's just a seat in the final. You do get entries, 2nd and 3rd replay the same level, 4th and 5th step down one and 6th-8th might drop 2 levels, so you aren't starting over unless you go out worse. It's a challenge, not great poker but not bad for free! First 5 levels are 6 person sit n go's, with the winner advancing 2 levels, 2nd goes 1 level and 3rd plays same level again, so they fill fast and 6 thru 10 are regular with about 25-30 playing. Last night I played a 4th and 7th  level and a $1000 qualifier… won all 3, the 1k had about 130 entries.


  67. NLOP  stands for national league of poker…


  68. On Facebook, I followed the fool to keep tabs on his propaganda…

     

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  69. Seadrill files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, nearly wiping out shareholders


  70. Irma sends South Florida retail spending down 72 percent




  71. Breitbart is waging “war” for Steve Bannon’s reputation



  72. Phil/TF

    Good Morning

    Did you move to Dec contract or still on the one expiring tomorrow?


  73. Good morning!

    Another day, another 0.50 move in oil – wrong way, unfortunately.  It was calming down but then a big move up at 5am.  Nothing to do but ride it out, now 10 short at $49.13 on /CL.  They did flush 50,000 contracts yesterday but that still means they have to move 50,000 every day through Wednesday – not likely without a sell-off.

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Oct'17 49.31 49.63 49.15 49.60 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.30 84301 49.30 253134 Call Put
    Nov'17 49.76 50.04 49.57 50.01 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.26 42384 49.75 473666 Call Put
    Dec'17 50.08 50.35 49.90 50.31 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.21 12872 50.10 344324 Call Put
    Jan'18 50.32 50.56 50.12 50.52 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.17 5617 50.35 201257 Call Put
    Feb'18 50.39 50.65 50.30 50.65 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.12 2318 50.53 76053 Call Put
    Mar'18 50.52 50.82 50.40 50.82 06:09
    Sep 14

    -

    0.16 2320 50.66 151100 Call Put

    In fact, there were 1.26Bn barrels in the front 4 months (soon to be 3) and now there's 1.27Bn so not a single barrel actually got sold, this was 100% rolling.  

    /RB still going the other way:

    Asia sold off into the close but Europe is only down 0.25% with UK flat ahead of BOE Decision at 7am and our Futures are flat.

    IRS/StJ – Man, those people are super-villain evil!  This country has been sold right down the river and they are not at all shy about pushing the new agenda.  And why not?  No one seems to be outraged by it.  Actually, it's because Trump does so much outrageous crap that they slip things like this in under the radar.  

    School shooting/BDC – Only one killed, that's not enough for headlines.  4th school shooting this year.  Here's all the mass shootings in 2017 so far:

    NJ is rockin' it this year!  

    Here's Americans killed by guns so far in 2017:

    As long as they are not smoking pot, Jeff Sessions has no problem with this.  

    IRBT/Winston – Crazy stuff.  That's why I wasn't happy about them ditching the military – consumer division is too easy to compete with.  Took a lot longer than I thought, though. 

    /TF/Ravi – Was always the Dec contract.

    BOE leaves rates unchanged – no effect on markets so far but it's bullish.  Swiss held steady earlier so the free money train continues. 

    • The vote to hold policy in place was 7-2.
    • From the statement: "Some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months."
    • The pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) has jumped 0.6% vs. the dollar to $1.3288. Stocks in the U.K. are flat.

    Is China's economy losing steam?

    • Asian stocks inched down from 10-year highs overnight following a burst of Chinese data that was largely weaker than investors expected.
    • Factory output grew 6% in August, while fixed-asset investment expanded 7.8% and retail sales rose 10.1%.
    • It's the second straight month of soft economic figures, a sign that the world's second-largest economy may be losing momentum in Q3.
    • Nikkei -0.3%; Shanghai -0.5% to 3,369; Hang Seng -0.6%

    Qatar injects $38B into economy

    • Qatar has pumped over $38B of its $340B reserves into its economy to offset the impact of its neighbors' embargo, according to Moody's, which said the equivalent of 23% of the country's GDP has been used.
    • Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have imposed a trade embargo on Qatar since the start of June, after accusing it of sponsoring terrorism.
    • Previously: Gulf crisis still going strong (Sep. 10 2017)
    • Wildfires in Alberta reportedly have forced Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) to shut down 24 natural gas wells and pipelines.
    • Shell says its Waterton sour gas processing complex – which includes natural gas wells and a processing plant and has production capacity of ~179M cf/day – remains in operation for now, but the company has reduced staff at the site, including in the field and the processing plant, and says it has a contingency plan to shut it down if the fires come too close.
    • Last year, another wildfire near Fort McMurray crippled the Alberta oil industry for months.
    • The Federal Reserve has given the green light to the purchase of Scottrade by Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE:TD), bringing together the two biggest discount brokerages in the U.S.
    • The $4B deal, announced last October, is set to close by Sept. 30.
    • After it's completed, Scottrade will convert to TD Ameritrade systems in 2018.

    Bitcoin skepticism: McAfee vs. Dimon

    • John McAfee, who made a bet this summer that bitcoin would reach $500K within three years, has entered the boxing ring with Jamie Dimon, who recently called the cryptocurrency a "fraud."
    • "I'm a bitcoin miner. We create bitcoins. It costs over $1,000 per coin to create a bitcoin. What does it cost to create a U.S. dollar?…Sure it will rise and fall as all new technologies are. But at the same time, it is certainly not a fraud."

    The new Baker Hughes will be in "show-me mode" for two quarters, FBR says

    • A day after Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHGE) was lauded by Evercore ISI as the new "behemoth" in the oilfield services industry that would make a worthy competitor to Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), analysts at FBR discussed why the Baker Hughes-GE combo will "remain in 'show me' mode on integration for at least two quarters."
    • FBR notes BHGE's Turbomachinery and Process Solutions and Oilfield Equipment divisions have "entered the entity at weaker revenue and EBIT margin levels than we anticipated… [for H1 2017] Oilfield Equipment realized an operating income margin of just 3.8%, while Schlumberger's [Cameron] achieved 13.5%, TechnipFMC's (NYSE:FTI) 10.5% and National Oilwell Varco's (NYSE:NOV) Rig Systems, Rig Aftermarket and C&PS combined 8.7%."
    • Evercore ISI's James West and team looked at BHGE in a different way, saying the company's "early contract wins give credence to an underappreciated" part of bull case on the new company.
    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) has been awarded a ~$600M contract for preliminary design work on two 747-8 jetliners that will be used as the next Air Force One presidential planes, the Department of Defense announces.
    • The contract includes the design to incorporate a mission communication system, electrical power upgrades, a medical facility and a self-defense system, the Air Force says.
    • The two aircraft initially were ordered four years ago by Transaero, a Russian airline that went bankrupt in 2015.
    • The Pentagon also awarded Boeing a $677M modification to a previously awarded contract for full-rate production of six F/A-18E and eight F/A-18F aircraft.
    • Upping its $8B bet on auto technology, Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) is forming a separate business unit within Harman to house autonomous driving products.
    • It will also plow $300M into a new fund investing in related startups.
    • "Our industry is literally screaming, saying, 'We love Mobileye (NASDAQ:INTC) but we need an open platform,'" Harman CEO Dinesh Paliwal declared. "Competition is the best thing ever."
    • Tesla (TSLA +1%) chief Elon Musk says the company will unveil its semi truck Oct. 26.
    • In a tweet, the CEO says there will be a reveal and test ride that day in Hawthorne, Calif.
    • "Worth seeing this beast in person. It's unreal," he further says.
    • Morgan Stanley last week said the trucking sector is seeing a benefit from Tesla's impact.

    • Genesee & Wyoming (NYSE:GWR) reports traffic rose 10.1% to 277,472 carloads in August.
    • Same-railroad traffic decreased 2.8% to 245,080 carloads.
    • North American operations traffic up 1.9% to 141,221.
    • The categories with the highest rate of traffic gains during the month were auto & auto parts, minerals & stone and waste.
    • Press release

    KeyBanc: T-Mobile's pricey airwaves skipped over in new phones

    • The fact that new phones from leaders Samsung and Apple don't support spectrum that came particularly dearly to T-Mobile (TMUS -0.3%) is a near-term negative for the carrier, KeyBanc says.
    • Analyst Brandon Nispel points out that T-Mobile spent $8B (its biggest ever investment) on 600 MHz spectrum in the FCC's broadcast incentive auction. CEO John Legere had said the company would put that spectrum to work later this year.
    • But that spectrum isn't tapped by the latest flagship phones, Nispel notes, and he says that spectrum monetization is the company's second-biggest concern (behind a slowdown in subscriber growth).
    • He has an Overweight rating on TMUS with a price target of $72, implying 14.6% upside from today's close.
    • Verizon (VZ +1%) will decide in the next six months about how it will deliver online TV in a "crowded field," its CEO says.
    • Speaking at a Bloomberg conference, Lowell McAdam says the company's own over-the-top service is "absolutely critical" if it's to take advantage of the ad-tech power built up in Oath, the subsidiary it built out of AOL and Yahoo buyouts.
    • While it was reported to be planning a summer 2017 launch of Internet TV to match Sling TV and DirecTV Now, it was said to have trouble signing up networks.
    • It may need a partner to get the service on its feet, but "there's no big M&A planned for us" despite any number of rumors floated in the past several months.

  74. Phil this SA author seems to think oil is heading higher and I was curious what you think of their premise?

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106777-listen-carefully-oil-bulls-wall-streets-change-tune

     


  75. Sick of the fear porn over N. Korea. He better fire them all at once because once he does he has maybe 20 minutes left to live. Everyone knows that including him. So seriously, lil Kim… I dare you. POS.