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Temperature Tantrum Tuesday – Planet Earth Attacks Trump’s Properties

Image result for trump climate change20-50 years.  

Not hundreds of years, not even 100 years but "20-50 years" is how long we have before the oceans are 3 feet higher than they are today.  New studies of Pine Island Bay in Antartica have cause climate scientists (the 97% that say Global Warming is real and actually happening) to drastically revise their estimate of how quickly this planet is headint towards catastrophe.  

The glaciers of Pine Island Bay are two of the largest and fastest-melting in Antarctica. Together, they act as a plug holding back enough ice to pour 11 feet of sea-level rise into the world’s oceans — an amount that would submerge every coastal city on the planet.  Minute-by-minute, huge skyscraper-sized shards of ice cliffs crumble into the sea, as tall as the Statue of Liberty and as deep underwater as the height of the Empire State Building.  

“Ice is only so strong, so it will collapse if these cliffs reach a certain height,” explains Kristin Poinar, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “We need to know how fast it’s going to happen.”

In the past few years, scientists have identified marine ice-cliff instability as a feedback loop that could kickstart the disintegration of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet this century — much more quickly than previously thought.

  • Three feet of sea-level rise would be bad, leading to more frequent flooding of U.S. cities such as New Orleans, Houston, New York, and Miami. Pacific Island nations, like the Marshall Islands, would lose most of their territory. Unfortunately, it now seems like three feet is possible only under the rosiest of scenarios.
  • At six feet, though, around 12 million people in the United States would be displaced, and the world’s most vulnerable megacities, like Shanghai, Mumbai, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be wiped off the map.
  • At 11 feet, land currently inhabited by hundreds of millions of people worldwide would wind up underwater. South Florida would be largely uninhabitable; floods on the scale of Hurricane Sandy would strike twice a month in New York and New Jersey, as the tug of the moon alone would be enough to send tidewaters into homes and buildings.

Next to a meteor strike, rapid sea-level rise from collapsing ice cliffs is one of the quickest ways our world can remake itself. This is about as fast as climate change gets.  There’s a recurring theme throughout these scientists’ findings in Antarctica: What we do now will determine how quickly Pine Island and Thwaites collapse. A fast transition away from fossil fuels in the next few decades could be enough to put off rapid sea-level rise for centuries. That’s a decision worth countless trillions of dollars and millions of lives.

In any case, it's something fun for you to discuss with the kids on Thanksgiving.

Mar-a-Lago is pictured here. | AP PhotoActually, it is an important long-range investing premise and important life-choices have to be made by younger people in the family.  It is not smart to buy a place next to Turmp in Mar-a-Lago, which sits on a strip of land off the main part of Palm Beach.  That land, as well as most of South Florida, is likely to be wiped off the map by the end of this century.

Trumps hotels in NYC will need to start at the 10th floor in order to stay dry as well.  As noted above, we're talking TRILLIONS of Dollars in damage and hundreds of millions of people displaced.  Yet, when it happens, we're all going to act surprised, right?  Will the Government pay your flood insurance when it's hundred of Billions of Dollars for millions of homes or will that program go bankrupt?  If you want a look at the future of cities like Miami, Houston, New York and Los Angeles – look at what we're doing (or not doing) for Peurto Rico now. 

Trump is covered, of course.  In fact, he claimed $17M in damage from Hurrican Wilma at Mar-a-Lago and that money came out of the FEMA insurance program, which was already $25Bn in debt before this year's disasters (and has not been accounted for under the current budget).  “If [NFIP] was a regular insurance company, they would have been in receivership,” Burl Daniel, an insurance expert from Texas, told HuffPost. “But it’s a political football because of the people who live on the coast.”  

Image result for mar a lago

By denying climate change and it's effects, we are encouraging hundreds of Billions of Dollars in bad investments – building homes and roads and bridges in places that are likely to be uninhabitable in just 20 years while NOT building homes and roads and bridges in the places people will actually need to move to.  The insurance program is going to become part of the debt, so every American citizen is paying for the luxury homes on the coast – so it doesn't pay to be sensible – they're going to take your money anyway…

20 years is not a long time – it's like going back to your old neighborhood and seeing how it's changed only when you go back to these neighborhoods – you'll need a boat!  New Yorkers don't think of themselves as living on the water as we generally view just the two rivers that pass by Manahattan Island on those rare occasions we peak out from between the buildings but here's what New York will look like with 11 more feet of water:

Manahattan alone has over $1Tn worth of real estate and it's all insured by the NFIP, which has no money at all and this isn't a hurricane.  If NY goes under, then the other cities will go down as well – at the same time and ALL of those people will have to find somewhere else to live and work.  There's an investing premise in there – and not just for jet skis.  

Image result for new york city global warming rising sea level

A responsible Government would make a realistic assessment of the situation and begin urban planning projects now for the next 20-50 years to incorporate the likelihood of a mass migration away from flooded coastal cities.  We don't have one of those.  That means it's up to you to think about what needs to be done – this decade and next – to protect yourself and your family's future.  

Keep in mind that, if we have more and more hurricanes over the next 10 years with more and more flooding and a bankrupt insurance program and people have to start paying the true cost of insuring their coastal homes – the property prices will begin coming down long before the sea levels hit your doorstep.  It's not the kind of planning you want to put off. 

 


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  1. Some tax cut:

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/20/16674640/gop-tax-plan-lies

    By the same token, both citizens watching the tax reform debate in Washington and reporters covering it ought to ask themselves: Why, if this plan is so good, do its authors keep lying about what the bill does?

    There’s a lot that’s controversial about tax policy, after all, but not everything is controversial. It’s obvious that if you cut a tax that’s only paid by married couples who’ve amassed at least $11 million that you are helping rich people. It’s obvious that if you enact a special discount tax rate for people who own LLCs then you are helping Donald Trump, who owns a ton of them. And it’s obvious that if part of your plan is permanent and part of it is temporary, and the part you made temporary is the part that helps the middle class, then helping the middle class wasn’t your priority.


  2. The buyback boost might be over:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-20/stock-boost-from-buybacks-goes-bye-bye-for-investors

    Shares of companies that have bought back more than the average amount of their outstanding shares in the past year are trailing the overall market by the biggest margin in a decade. And the dip in investors' enthusiasm for buybacks seems to be growing lately. The PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF, which holds U.S. companies that have repurchased at least 5 percent of their shares in the past year, has dropped 2.5 percent in the past month. The S&P 500 Index in the same period is up slightly. So far this year, buyback stocks, as measured by the PowerShares ETF, are up just 10.7 percent, lagging the S&P 500's 2017 return by 6.6 percentage points.


  3. Charlie Rose / Phil – It's starting to look like everybody will be off the air soon! Hard to believe what went on all these years. And no one is taking chances anymore – off you go. On the other hand, Moore is still running for Senate and many women accused Trump of the same thing and he is still in office. And so is Franken although at least he apologized which is more than  we can say for the other two!


  4. SVXY / Phil – Looking back at our talk last week, it seems that are using it as a hedge while I look at it as income and potentially investment. You sell puts to finance the bear put spread betting that SVXY will get killed on a correction which it will. My problem with that is that you still need to rely on timing to get the full benefit of the spread (or keep rolling). In the long run I still think that SVXY will go much higher over the next 20 years (my current horizon) so I would rather sell puts as income and possibly get assigned eventually or load up on shares on a correction. And then sell premium around them. Just my $0.02.


  5. Reproducing faster than humans apparently:


  6. I'm looking to get a talk show gig or maybe a role in some tv shows.  Any openings? 


  7. Good Morning.


  8. From Charley Grant at the WSJ:

    TSLA analyst consensus for 2018 adj. EPS of TSLA – $-3.68

    That same esitmate on 6/30/16: $6.26


  9. Rustle… only if you're female, they are going to rule from now on…


  10. Adam Jonas, TSLA's biggest cheerleader and possibly first analyst to be out of a job because of TSLA, slashed his estimates yet maintained and even raised target for TSLA going to 400 before then trying to escape the corner he painted himself into and saying then it will drop to 200.  It's like a mental patient got out and MS hired him as an analyst.


  11. HOV flying!


  12. Everything is awesome again…


  13. /TF  wow!


  14. mkucstars1--other than the FU stocks..dangit!


  15. Good morning!

    "It’s a Ponzi scheme,” a Wall Street executive told me, dismissing the idea that a multi-trillion dollar tax cut for multinational corporations would trickle down throughout the economy and also pay for itself. It’s a view that’s widely shared among the bankers, hedge-fund managers, traders, and quants whose job it is to determine, with Vulcan accuracy, how the Republican tax bill that passed the House yesterday will actually affect the markets.  

    Since, generally speaking, one of the largest state taxes is on property—your home—eliminating the federal tax deduction for state property taxes will inevitably cause the cost of homeownership in states with high property taxes to go up. It follows, logically, that if the annual cost of home ownership goes up, then the value of the home—which is for most people their single most-valuable asset—must go down. The National Association of Realtors commissioned a recent study that predicted that the elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes could result in a decrease in home valuations of between 10 percent and 17 percent.

    That would wipe out a huge amount of homeowner equity, with the usual expected consequences: the sick feeling that comes from knowing that suddenly you are poorer, which can then lead to lower consumer spending, kicking off a recession. Furthermore, if the value of homes goes down, then whatever equity has been built up in those homes will also go down, and the ability to unlock that equity—through home-equity loans or reverse mortgages—will also decrease. Lower home values could also lead to problems—again—for the government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that have guaranteed some home mortgages, which are secured by homes worth materially less. New problems for the G.S.E.s will make it harder for people to get mortgages, leading to a lower level of home ownership than already exists.

    FTR: 10 Reasons Frontier Is Still A Strong Buy

    Holy crap – look at the Nasdaq go this morning!  

    Oil moving back to $57 too.

    Tax plan/StJ – What a joke.  Hopefully (doubtfully) this will finally show the American public what a pack of thieves the GOP is.   Unfortunately, too late to undo the damage this thing will do to us.

    Rose/StJ – It's a little tough to go after people for what they did 40 years ago and, sadly, that's the difference between Liberals and Conservatives as the Liberals apologize and resign while the Conservatives deny and fight for their power.  In the end – more Conservatives remain in power.

      Cohn’s primary tactic since his youthful days as chief counsel to Senator Joseph McCarthy’s Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations was always to attack, attack, attack and deny, deny, deny; to make no admissions, never give an inch, fight to win no matter who is in the right, win because winning is the only thing, especially if you are in the wrong.

    Cohn had stuck to that philosophy when he returned to New York to practice law, making the truth a lie and a lie the truth when it suited him. He demonstrated the full Roy while representing the Trump family real estate business in a racial discrimination suit and became a mentor to young Donald.

    Talk show/Rustle – I can think of hundreds of people from college who would have to resign under these rules and dozens of people I've met later in life.  Must be 10s of thousands of men around wondering if they will be next.  Remember when we had to teach people that "no means no" – that wasn't too long ago!  

    Females/Mkucs – Can't do any worse…

    HOV/Lunar – That's fun.

    /TF now 1,520.  I'm tempted to short it again but not with /NQ through the roof like this.  


  16. Here is what upsets me – I fixed several bad trades last week, like PSEC, locking in no downside but limiting my upside, because I could not stand the pain, and they have all gone climbing.






  17. Nigeria mosque blast kills 50


  18. Leading Trump Census pick causes alarm



  19. PCLN

    PCLN April 2018 1300 puts now have a 460 point cushion.

    Phil, I know you've said that you think its too scary to trade this way.  I don't see any difference between this trade (per put) than if I sold 10 puts against a $17.60 stock and agreed to buy the stock at $13, less premium received.  I'd love to buy PCLN at $1300 in April.

    What am I missing ?   Thanks.


  20. WSM CEO on TV buying augmented reality co.







  21. Locking/Baron – No regrets.  This is just low-volume BS.  There are no sellers so whatever money is flowing into the markets has to pay up.  

    PCLN/Albo – As long as you REALLY want to own them for that price then great but make sure it's worth it margin-wise vs other things you can do.

    WSM/Baron – People did not like that at all!  


  22. I hear you Phil.  I just wanted to sell some puts and cannot do it today.


  23. Phil/TZA

    I have a 10 TZA April 13/18 BCS purchased for (2.19/0.91) and the current net is around $1 (1.62/0.62)

    Will it be a good move to buy back the 18 (0.62) and then add a few to 13s (1.62) OR roll down the spread OR stay put?

    Thanks as always

    Regards


  24. Infographic: How Holiday Season Digital Spending Has Developed | Statista

    TZA/Pat – The key with those spreads is to do the roll before the price of the long call drops below the net of the spread, so you are golden here.  Now, how worried are we that TZA will be over $18 in April?   Now $12.84 so $18 is up $5.16 or 40% so a 13% drop in the Russell, back to 1,319 is the only thing that will get you in trouble.  That's not really worth worrying about as you will have a new spread and you can always roll or stop out the short calls – so why buy them back?   

    Meanwhile, $18 does seem to be the logical upside target so Maybe roll to the April $12 ($1.90)/17 (0.75) bull call spread at $1.15.  The $18s are 0.65 and maybe worth the extra 0.10 to be safer on the short calls.

    So doing that costs you net nothing (0.45 back in pocket) and buys you another 3 months of protection that's in the money.


  25. You know what's strange?  They just said something about the Vegas shooting – 60 dead, 300 injured and I realized what a small blip that was and how, nationally, we've already forgotten about it.  Worst shooting ever – gone in 60 seconds – there's something really wrong with our country…


  26. Phil,   Need your advice on this.  I have a VLO butterfly with current short call/put $72.50/$60 expiring in Jan 18.  The puts will expire worthless but I got the calls assigned to me today morning.  So I am short 2500 VLO shares.  I have a $80 long call to protect it, but was wondering if there is some way to salvage this by covering and rolling to the next expiration -Mar?   Your thoughts much appreciated.


  27. Wrong and getting worse. I agree.


  28. Phil;/TZA

    sorry got confused.. how will rolling my 10 TZA April 13/18 BCS to 10 April 12/17 BCS put back 0.45 in  my pocket?

    regards


  29. Here's a reminder to drive safe for the holidays:

    TZA/Pat – Sorry, I got confused, thought you had Jans!   The idea was to take the long calls only and cash them and then set up a longer month spread.  In your case, I think April is a good time-frame and you can invest $1 (or less) and roll down to the April $11s ($2.38) and then you are in for net $1.75ish but that's less than the April $11s so your investment is still there (and 100% in the money) or you could take an early roll to July $12s ($2.40) which have the advantage of slower premium decay and, if TZA goes higher, you can then roll the short calls to a higher strike (July $19s are $1) and widen the spread further.

    VLO/Learner – Yes, you are short but they also put $72.50 x 2,500 in your account with which to play.  With VLO at $83.50, you are down about $11 ($27,500) and I assume you have 25 2019 $80s and you can sell 35 of the March $77.50s ($7.75 = $27,125) and hope you get your pullback between now and then.  I think you will.


  30. VLO – thanks Phil,  Yes, I have 25 long 2019 $80 calls. 


  31. Phil,

    Any guessing on tax loss selling effect on the price of the FU stocks in general and is there any kind of expectation that they might go up a bit once January comes around?


  32. Breaking News: Despite the run up in the Russell 2000, Phil Davis says dinner at Nobu on Friday is still on the table.  Davis also added that his meeting with Jabo in times square is looking unlikely given current fu pricing.   Happy Thanksgiving all


  33. mikezuela… maybe 2018?


  34. FU/Lotter – I HOPE this is the tax loss selling.  If so (with the 30-day rule), HOPEFULLY (not a valid trading strategy) they will get bought back in Jan/Feb.

    Times Square/Mike – No, no Nobu if it's not free – those are my rules.  Meanwhile, we didn't expect to be in Times Square this year, though it did briefly look like they were going to take off in Oct.  Now we're just back to planning on 12/31/18.

    Meanwhile, FTR was doing good this morning and gave it all back and then some. 


    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +4.1% Y/Y vs. +2.3% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales are down 0.7% through November 18.

    • Only $10K?
    • "This whole revolution came out of a breakdown in trust in the 2008 crisis," Mike Novogratz tells Bloomberg. Bitcoin, he says, is like digital gold in the way gold has value simply because folks eons ago decided gold has value.
    • Volatility – such as this morning's 5% plunge on the tether hack - isn't bothersome to Novo. "We’re in the second or third inning … Because prices have moved so far people are nervous, you made a whole lot of money, there’s news so you want to book your profit and get out.”
    • Novo is a fan of ethereum as well, and sees ether rising 35% by year-end to $500.
    • The former hedge funder is back in the business, attempting to raise $500M for his Galaxy Digital Assets Fund (he's contributed $150M of his own money).
    • Bitcoin has recovered and more from this morning's slide, now up 0.9% on the session at $8,340.

    WSJ: Growing gas glut threatens west Texas oil boom

    • Natural gas is gushing out of west Texas, and that's a problem for energy producers who are running out of places to send it all, possibly forcing them to cap wells or curtail drilling, according to a WSJ report.
    • Pipelines running from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast’s chemical plants and export terminals are essentially full; for oil and gas producers, the excess supply could potentially force oil and gas producers to take drastic measures until new pipelines to the Gulf are built and planned power plants come online in Mexico, according to the report.
    • The growing gas glut already is weighing on regional prices: Natural gas prices at the Waha trading hub have fallen to much as $0.57/MMBtu, or ~20%, below spot prices at Louisiana’s Henry Hub, and analysts forecast the gap exceeding $1 next year.
    • GE bear John Inch at Deutsche Bank cuts his price target to a Street-low $15 from $18 and reinstates his Sell rating, believing GE should trade at a valuation discount given its "still aggressive" accounting, cash flow and debt pressures, and the potential for additional lawsuits.
    • Inch says he is surprised by management's "upbeat tone/pitch" that views 2018 as a mere "reset" year even though billions of dollars of cost savings are expected to flow into numbers next year from downsizing and other restructuring actions.
    • These costs will no longer run through the presentation of earnings as GE adopts a "more aggressive adjusted earnings" presentation framework, the analyst notes.
    • GE -0.2% premarket

    Still more upside for Boeing amid robust demand for aircraft, Jefferies says

    • Boeing (BA +0.6%) should benefit from "robust" demand for commercial aircraft, Jefferies analysts say in reiterating the firm's Buy rating on the stock and raising its price target to $312 from $300, even though BA is up nearly 70% YTD and hit an all-time high earlier this month.
    • "We have increased confidence that Boeing can grow EPS at a low double-digit rate supported by robust demand for its commercial aircraft," analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu writes. "Given the size of the backlog, near-term production is well supported, but the opportunity set should likely keep backlogs at elevated levels."
    • Jefferies sees persistent commercial jet orders leading BA to grow deliveries by 6%/year through the next decade, and improved cash margins could lead to more than $21/share of free cash flow by 2020.

    This will cause chaos:  FCC chairman sets December push to end net neutrality rules

    • FCC Chairman Ajit Pai has launched his press to repeal net neutrality rules, posting an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal and circulating an order to commissioners to end regulation that he says is micro-managing the Internet.
    • The agency will vote Dec. 14 on eliminating the regs, and a success will mean "Washington will return to the bipartisan approach that made the Internet what it is today," Pai writes.
    • Pai voted against the rules that passed with a 3-2 margin in February 2015 and reclassified broadband services under Title II of the Telecommunications Act. At the time, Pai said "If you loved Ma Bell in the 20th century, you will love Pa Broadband in the 21st."
    • But proponents of the rules say they're necessary to protect online access, with Internet service more of a utility than a luxury now, and acting to prevent large companies from setting up pay-to-play express lanes on the Internet, or blocking or speed-limiting content from rival providers.
    • Pai started his press in earnest in April, laying out how he would urge a return to a "light-touch" stance and reclassify Internet service providers as Title I services. And he spoke of such a move Jan. 23 when newly inaugurated President Trump named him to lead the agency.
    • A Cowen analyst says Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) should acquire Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) for faster access to the legal side of the pharmacy business.
    • Analyst John Blackledge says the Rite Aid buy would bring along pharmacy licenses and infrastructure that could benefit the company if moving to open pharmacies in Whole Foods or to offer medication through the Prime services. 
    • Blackledge says the firm’s research shows that 67% of Amazon Prime members would buy prescription drugs through the platform. 
    • Blackledge estimates Amazon’s U.S. retail pharmacy business could generate $20B in 2019 with the Rite Aid deal.  
    • Amazon shares are up 1.02%.
    • Rite Aid shares are up 3.53%.
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) expects to ship 4M HomePods next year, according to Bloombergsources.
    • The company recently bumped back the speaker’s release from December to early 2018. 
    • CIRP data says Amazon’s Alexa has sold about 15M units in the two years since its launch. 
    • The Bloomberg piece dives into the development history of the HomePod, which focuses more on audio quality than being a virtual assistant. But with Sonos now making smart speakers with quality sound, HomePod will face a competitive market. 
    • ”This is a huge missed opportunity,” an Apple source tells Bloomberg.
    • Apple shares are up 1.95%.  
    • Previously: Apple HomePod launch delayed until next year (Nov. 17)

  35. MRVL – just wow.


  36. So 1999:

    Making $1.10 per share though, no too unreasonable.


  37. Forget FTR, what's with GNC down 10%?


  38. GNC/Baron – I see nothing.


  39. GNC is restricted too at IBB, no shorting.


  40. Phil/TZA,

    I went with the Calender spread July 12 / April 18 (at 0.88) as somehow I like the decay to the short position and the option to roll the short call to july in case required.

    regards


  41. KEM – smaller company, just under 1B with recent pullback. possibly stopped falling, so maybe catching the handle… buying shares, covering with Dec $18 calls right off the bat… and ready to dump out if makes new swing low close.





  42. KEM – also considered diagonal – long Jan2019 $15 calls, short Jan2018 $18 calls… but not super-liquid options for this, so simple buy shares and cover easier to do, and less risky on pullback to get out where 'expect' to get out, and not have the long option value vaporize and have an exit cost more than intended (if it goes that way).




  43. PCLN – Albo, you are correct, but downward momentum (if it ever returns) has a sure fire way of challenging put sellers to test whether they really want to own stock when it is in distress. However, the owners of 'FU' stocks know about that emotion already (I include myself in that category).

    Sticking with PCLN, and Phil's recent answer (2 weeks ago) to my questions on how to adjust PCLN after some downward momentum, shows how challenging adjustments on volatile stocks can be….

    If I understand correctly, you still have the 2019 $2,000/2,200 bull call spread with a 1/2 cover of the Jan $2,000 calls.  Those calls ($2.80) will almost certainly expire worthless so I'd just put a stop on them at $4.  The whole point of cashing the low spread and going high was so you could roll down your long calls on a dip.  The 2019 $2,000 calls are $91 and the 2020 $1,750 ($265)/$2,000 ($171) bull call spread is $94 so I"d go for that and roll the short 2019 $2,200 calls ($51) to 1/2 the Jan $1,735s ($40) and then see what happens.  If they go higher, you do a 2x roll of the short calls with $250 upside n the spread to cover and, if it goes lower, you just sell 1/2 x lower calls and, of course, it won't take many quarters selling $40 against a $94 spread to make your money back. 

    Those Jan $1735 have gone from $40 to $70. The 2x roll of those short calls would be to a full cover of Jan 18, 1800 calls at $35. Phil's logic is absolutely right, and the same logic applies to lower priced stocks (as Albo mentions). Look at how VLO and LMT have taken off to name a couple of other examples.

    I highlight this simply to point out as a reminder that, in stocks trending strongly (up or down) managing BCS or BPS with covers can be very challenging. 





  44. Phil – UBNT – thanks for the tip o the hat my man.  No smooch on the forehead, just a high five. LOL.


  45. Snow - Strong Woman Do Bong Soon

    Thanks for my LMAO of the day.  Sorry to be literal, but maybe she has healthy lungs? Can I join in? Unlike William Jefferson, I did and still do, on both counts.  


  46. Trump just now (I paraphrase) – "Better to have a child molester in the Senate than a liberal"


  47. Thanks, Winston.  Good stuff.  I agree with you about when stocks start collapsing.  FWIW, I have a buy stop on the 1300 puts, not triggered by the put price because they are illiquid, but based on the stock price.

    And even though I say I'd love to buy PCLN at 1300, don't plan to stick around and watch that happen.  Have been using the same short put strategy with AMZN for the past couple of years.

    And I do like trading with a cushion of 20-25% as some protection.


  48. Amazing


  49. I DID, But NOT like that sexual dynamo Charlie, or Harvey CMY Weiner-stein, or Derwood Intern Letterman, or Fondling Franken-stein, or Dr. Rufie Em Off The Cliff Huxtable, or Marv chasing, biting, screaming YES!!!! dressed in fishnets Albert, or Bob Bangin the hostess Barker.


  50. In the days of Camelot, Jack would talk about his days on the PT boat, get the all girls in Chappaquiddick and let Ted, drive them home. Oh Mary Jo? 


  51. GNC tanking


  52. ~~Democratic Rep. John Conyers denies wrongdoing after report of sexual harassment complaint in 2015~~Longest-serving House Representative embroiled in harassment scandal.

    …..and the beat goes on


  53. Incredible


  54. At the end of the day, speaking of diving off a bridge really fast, how about our cat grabbing POTUS? 

    I could go on forever, but this stuff is really getting off the cuff and entirely out of hand, pun intended and time for my IV. Out.


  55. From Briefing :

    ~~GNC -GNC Holdings shares seeing notable weakness into the close, currently down 16% amid vague chatter regarding concerns over the company's term loan.  


  56. Sorry, just got my web back.  

    KEM/Scott – I like those boring segments, good business but not much growth, I'd stay conservative.  I'd sell a small amount of 2020 $13 puts for $4 and use that money to construct a spread, like $13 ($8)/20 ($5.60) bull call spreads at $2.40 so if you sell 5 of the puts for $2,000, you can buy 10 of the spreads for $2,400 and your worst case is owning 500 at $13.40 and best case is you get $7,000 back for a $6,600 profit (1,650%).  

     PCLN/Winston – Quite the turnaround.

    Trump/StJ – Wow, amazing!  

    "We don't need a liberal person in there, a Democrat," Trump said on Tuesday. 

    Trump spoke while en route to the presidential helicopter that will take him to Air Force One to start a Thanksgiving holiday at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla. 

    Trump himself ignored questions about whether he himself believes Moore's denials. "Roy Moore denies it," he said. "That's all I can say." 

    Trump said he will announce next week whether he intends to go to Alabama to campaign for Moore, who faces a tight election against Democrat Doug Jones, a former federal prosecutor. 

    GNC/Albo – Wow, "vague chatter" is all it takes?

    Well a little off the highs but a strong finish and we touched 2,600 on /ES.  Index at 2,599.

    I'm doing a morning post and running tomorrow, flying out of Newark in the morning for Florida.  Will check in when I can (pray to GOGO).


  57. Web / Phil – A precursor of the post net-neutrality era possibly. My guess is that PSW will be added to the slow lanes of all ISPs given the tone of your posts! If allowed at all. By then only Breitbart will be allowed to stream videos. These idiots truly are ruining this country for short sighted gains. And of course the planet as well.


  58. Neutrality/StJ – Nothing so nefarious (at first) – just that we'll have to pay a toll for better access which means all the kids with YouTube channels who take eyeballs away from the networks will be crushed and small websites will get driven out of business.  It's criminal as the Internet was supposed to be free for the people and suddenly now we're giving control to essentially the same old companies that controlled TV, Telephone and Radio in the first place.  

    You would think this would be good for FTR though…


  59. Of all the crappy things they have done to our citizens this past year, "they are going to SAVE us from T and TWX:

    “This merger would greatly harm American consumers," says DOJ antitrust chief Makan Delrahim. "It would mean higher monthly television bills and fewer of the new, emerging innovative options that consumers are beginning to enjoy."

    Really, this is the one thing they are going to take a stand for.






  60. Alibaba’s Numbers Raise Questions












  61. Good morning!  

    Shorting /TF again at 1,520 as long as /ES is below 2,600 and shorting /CL at $58 with tight stops above but I can't stay until inventories, so I'll just be taking a quick gain there as my biggest loss ever was leaving oil shorts in play when I flew to Houston for Thanksgiving many years ago.  By the time I landed, I was down $50,000!

    API had a big, 6.3Mb draw in oil AND the Saudis said they were shipping less oil but it's easy to disappoint on EIA at 10:30 now so I hope for some profit-taking when the NYMEX opens (9am).

    Crude -6.356MM, Exp. -1.5MM Gasoline +0.869MM Distillate -1.67MM Cushing -1.796MM

     

    • Oil prices are up almost 2% to $58 per barrel as the API reported falling U.S. crude inventories, while expectations of a prolonged OPEC-led production cut offered support.
    • TransCanada (NYSE:TRP) is also cutting deliveries by at least 85% on its 590K bpd Keystone pipeline through the end of November, which was shut down last week after a 5,000-barrel spill in South Dakota.

    Cool video of NoKo defector's escape.  In real life, you don't dodge a hail of bullets, unfortunately but the soldiers do actually stop chasing you when you get across the border..

    VIX is back to 9.68 – seems like it's easier to short it when it's up than wait for those spikes.  Easier still to stay away from the silly thing.  On this chart of the VIX, it's 11.6, not sure what the difference is in Finviz's chart vs ToS's 

    Spitting Cobra patterns on all of our indexes:

    The S&P was at 2,590 on the 6th, so let's not get too excited about 2,600 until we're over it for a couple of days but it will be significant if we sustain a move above it.

    I'm just putting up a post this morning and heading to the airport – will check in from the IPad when I can but not in Florida until 3pm but I'll catch up at night.

    Have a very happy holiday,

    - Phil

    • Minutes of the last Fed meeting may keep a few traders at their desks until mid-afternoon before they bolt for the Thanksgiving holiday.
    • The release is likely to assure an interest rate hike in mid-December, along with positive economic readings on hiring, unemployment and GDP hitting 3% in Q3.
    • The only thing really worrying the central bank is persistently low inflation, with Janet Yellen saying yesterday that the Fed was "monitoring the situation very closely."

    Brexit divorce deal within three weeks?

    • Britain and the EU are targeting a Brexit divorce deal within three weeks as officials seek to overcome the toughest unresolved issues on a financial settlement and Northern Ireland, FTreports.
    • Theresa May's offer to pay £40B for a "divorce bill" if trade discussions begin has given new momentum to the negotiations and the two sides are now looking to open a second phase of trade talks.

    Hang Seng smashes through 30,000

    • Hong Kong's benchmark equities index has climbed above 30,000 level for the first time in more than a decade as Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) extended its rally and Chinese financial soared amid sustained inflows from across the border.
    • The Hang Seng had a rocky ride in the past 10 years, buffeted by the global financial crisis, the bursting of two different Chinese stock bubbles as well concerns over European debt.

    Venezuela bondholders in restructuring limbo

    • Holders of Venezuelan bonds, including advisers and fund managers, are meeting with each other and considering forming committees as questions mount about President Maduro's proposal to restructure $60B of debt.
    • Meanwhile, Venezuela's intelligence agency has arrested six top executives at U.S.-based refiner Citgo, a subsidiary of PVDSA, as part of what authorities are calling an anti-corruption "crusade."

    Europe's first bitcoin mutual fund

    • Pushing deeper into the mainstream, a Paris-based asset manager has launched Europe's first bitcoin mutual fund.
    • Tobam is classifying it as an alternative investment fund since it's not traded on an exchange and does not fall under the European mutual fund structure known as Ucits, but it does has daily liquidity based on market closing prices.
    • Approval was needed from France's financial regulator, the Autorite des Marches Financiers.

    Keystone permit potentially could be revoked after spill, South Dakota says

    • South Dakota regulators say they could revoke TransCanada’s permit to operate the Keystone pipeline if an investigation into last week’s oil spill finds the company violated its license.
    • “We are waiting to see what the forensic analysis comes back with to see if any of our conditions were violated,” the chair of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission tells Reuters, adding a violation could lead to a suspension or cancellation of the permit.
    • The South Dakota PUC issued the Keystone permit in 2007 with 57 conditions ranging from construction standards to environmental requirements; the spill is the third along the Keystone route during the 10-year period.
    • Meanwhile, the ongoing Keystone shutdown in South Dakota has helped push the spread between the price differentials for Western Canadian Select in Alberta and in Cushing, Okla., to its widest level in more than two years, Platts reports.
    • TransCanada (NYSE:TRPshould move forward with the $8B Keystone XL pipeline expansion following Nebraska's approval of an alternative route through the state that would raise the cost of the project, some shareholders say.
    • The impact of the additional five miles in the alternative route is unclear, but fund managers say it should be manageable and  are broadly positive about the company’s ability to finance the project, even if it has to raise funds through equity issuance.
    • “An approval is an approval,” says portfolio manager Ryan Bushell. “Time is more valuable than distance [because of] the rival pipelines and just the fact that the government could change, and this could all get shut down again.”
    • “There might be a lot of court cases and what-have-you to go, but on the whole I’d like to see them go ahead with this project,” says portfolio manager Manash Goswami.
    • Some analysts estimate Keystone XL has the potential to contribute up to 10% to TRP’s C$55.5B($43.4B) market value.

    Fiat Chrysler, Eni to jointly develop vehicles using CNG, LNG to cut emissions

    • Automaker Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) and oil and gas producer Eni (NYSE:E) agree to jointly develop technologies to reduce carbon emissions from vehicles.
    • The companies signed the agreement today in Rome that broadly focuses on technologies related to compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas.
    • The deal also includes the use of a new alternative fuel consisting of 15% methanol and 5% bioethanol to be tested by five Fiat 500 vehicles in Eni’s car sharing service; the companies say the fuel can cut carbon emissions by 4%.

    DryShips slides 11% as losses triple in Q3

    • DryShips (NASDAQ:DRYS) has tumbled after hours, -10.8%, after q3 earnings where voyage revenues rose but net loss tripled amid heavy financing losses.
    • Net loss attributable to common stockholders widened to $15.2M from a year-ago loss of $5.8M.
    • Depreciation rose to $5.5M from a year-ago $872,000. The company also saw higher interest and finance costs (of $3.6M) and took a $7.6M loss on private placement.
    • Average number of drybulk vessels rose to 21.8 from a year-ago 19.7, with total voyage days rising to 2,002 from 1,353, and fleet utilization rose to 100% from 75%.
    • Meanwhile, 4 new tanker vessels were online on average, with 368 voyage days and 100% utilization, and 1.2 gas carrier vessels, with 111 voyage days and also 100% utilization.
    • Time charter equivalent revenue by segment: Drybulk, $17.13M (up 268%); Tanker, $4.02M (new); Gas Carrier, $3.13M (new).
    • Cash and equivalents came to $25.9M. Book value of vessels, including advances, sits at $786.5M, about $7.54/share.
    • Press release

    LOL, we played for this 3 years ago!  TiVo +6.8% as ITC rules Comcast infringed on patents

    • TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) is rallying strong after hours, up 6.8%, after an International Trade Commission ruling saying Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSAviolated two of its patents.
    • Comcast's set-top boxes infringed on the patents of TV-guide company Rovi Corp., now part of TiVo.
    • The ITC issued an exclusion order banning Comcast from importing and selling infringing X1 boxes, TiVo says.
    • Uber (Private:UBER) is the latest tech firm to reveal a large data breach — and says it paid hackers $100,000 in an effort to cover up the incursion last year.
    • An incident compromising 57M accounts occurred, and along with names, email addresses and phone numbers for millions of riders, about 600,000 drivers' license numbers were accessed.
    • But financial information wasn't taken, Uber says.
    • The company has fired Chief Security Officer Joe Sullivan and deputy Craig Clark in the matter.
    • GameStop (NYSE:GME) has settled into strong gains after hours, up 3.4%, after solid beats in its Q3 earnings report driven by its third straight quarter of same-store sales growth.
    • Sales of the Nintendo Switch and collectibles were a bright spot along with new game software, mitigating a slowdown in used-game products.
    • “As we enter the fourth quarter, we are encouraged by the initial customer response to Microsoft’s Xbox One X, and believe that the holiday season results will be driven by new console hardware and collectibles," says interim CEO Dan DeMatteo.
    • EPS rose more than 10% as net earnings increased to $55.1M on an adjusted basis.
    • Overall sales were up 1.5% (flat in constant currency) to $1.99B; comparable store sales were up 1.9% (+0.6% in U.S., +4.6% internationally).
    • Net sales breakout: New videogame hardware, $309.5M (up 8.8%); New videogame software, $649.9M (up 5.4%); pre-owned and value videogame products, $458.5M (down 2.5%); Videogame accessories, $136.4M (down 12.6%); Digital, $37.2M (down 16.8%); Technology brands, $194.2M (down 10.2%); Collectibles, $138.4M (up 26.5%); Other, $64.5M (up 4.4%).
    • It's reiterated full-year guidance for EPS of $3.10-$3.40 (vs. $3.34 expected) and forecasts full-year comparable-store sales to rise in low to mid-single digits.
    • Conference call to come at 5 p.m. ET.
    • Press release

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise -6% on Q4 beats, downside guidance, CEO change

    • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) shares are down 6% aftermarket following Q4 results that beat EPS and revenue estimates but included downside guidance.
    • Q1 guidance has EPS from $0.20 to $0.24 (consensus: $0.27) and FY18 guidance has EPS from $1.15 to $1.25 (consensus: $1.20). 
    • Enterprise Group revenue was up 1% on the year in constant currency to $6.9B with a 10.6% operating margin. Servers revenue fell 5%, Storage was up 5%, Networking was up 21%, and Technology Services revenue grew 2%. 
    • Financial Services revenue was up 24% to $1B.  
    • The company announces that current President Antonio Neri will become President and CEO effective February 1. Current CEO Meg Whitman will remain on the board of directors.  
    • Press release     
    • Previously: Hewlett Packard Enterprise beats by $0.03, beats on revenue (Nov. 21)

    Citing 'missteps,' Disney Animation chief taking leave from Pixar

    • In what may overshadow this week's latest big release from Pixar (DIS +0.2%), Disney Animation head and Pixar co-founder John Lasseter is stepping away from his post for a leave of absence from Pixar after what a memo from him calls "missteps."
    • He wasn't specific, but the memo comes amid a wave of allegations of sexual misconduct in media companies that today also swept up Charlie Rose (PBS and CBS have cut ties to the host/journalist).
    • Pixar has been prepping its latest, Coco, for a Thanksgiving Day release.
    • "I’ve recently had a number of difficult conversations that have been very painful for me," Lasseter wrote in a memo to employees. "It’s never easy to face your missteps, but it’s the only way to learn from them.
    • "It’s been brought to my attention that I have made some of you feel disrespected or uncomfortable. That was never my intent … I especially want to apologize to anyone who has ever been on the receiving end of an unwanted hug or any other gesture they felt crossed the line in any way, shape, or form. No matter how benign my intent, everyone has the right to set their own boundaries and have them respected," he continues.
    • Research by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) computer scientists on how self-driving cars can betterspot objects while using fewer sensors has been posted online, in what appears to be the company's first publicly disclosed paper on autonomous vehicles.
    • The approach called "VoxelNet" is significant because Apple’s corporate secrecy around future products has been seen as a drawback among AI and machine learning researchers.
    • Read the submission here

  62. Phil and all – Happy & Healthy Thanksgiving! Safe travels.


  63. Happy Thanksgiving to all fellow PSW'ers.