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Grand Theft Friday – GOP Desperately Deals to Steal Your Future

Before I get into taxes, I want to apologize to Roy Moore.  

He's been accused of being a sexual predator just because, when he was in his mid-30s, he had sex with girls that were as young as 14 and maybe he was a little gropey and maybe, after forcing a 16 year-old girls' head into his lap, he shouldn't have said ""You're just a child, I'm the district attorney; if you tell anyone about this no one will ever believe you."[23][24]", but this is a very different culture (Alabama) than the one we're used to – so who are we to judge who the people of Alabama want representing them in Washington?  After all, when Donald Trump was 35, his wife was 11

Roy Moore, if he is elected, certainly won't be the most evil, loathsome figure in the Death Star that is the US Senate.  There are people there who, as we speak, are plotting the deaths of thousands children by starvation, heat, cold or a slow death from many childhood diseases.  Some of them don't even want to vaccinate our children – potenially unleashing new epidemics on our nation – the first of many plagues we are likely to endure under the Golden Pharoh.  

Image result for republican death star9 MILLION low-income children will lose their health care on December 31st.  This is not Obamacare, these are children we, as a country, decided did not deserve to suffer just because their parents committed the mortal sin of being poor.  Not that the GOP has forgotten about the parents.  In order to pay for $338Bn of the tax cuts they are giving to the Top 1%, they are repealing the Obamcare Mandate Provision that will cut 13M people off health care.  That's over 10 years so $33.8Bn a year means they have to take $2,600 away from each poor person they put at risk.  Keep that in mind – that's what your life is worth to a Republican.  Even less according to Brookings, who see 32M people losing health care under these provisions!    

Those are, of course, the FEDERAL savings and all they do is kick the costs down to the state level where a report by the heath-care consulting firm Avalere, shows the cuts would reduce Medicaid Funds to states by $713Bn over the next 10 years, where they will have to raise your taxes to pay for it and, guess what – state taxes are no longer deductible from your income so you'll end up getting totally screwed by this plan on many levels – especially if you have a parent who gets sick and isn't rich enough to pay for treatment.

And guess which states suffer the most under the GOP tax plan?  Come on – guess:

Isn't that amazing?  It's almost like it was perfectly targeted to punish states that didn't vote for Trump.  And, if you think this doesn't affect you because you are rich, then you are a rich idiot.  First of all, when people turned 65 they didn't need ANY health insurance anymore because they were eligible for Medicare and Medicare was great.  If you like your private insurance for $30,000 a year for you and your wife, that's great and God Bless you that you can afford that and how great is it to pay less taxes because we're willing to murder children and the elderly, right?  

Image result for health care costsBut are you really saving enough taxes now to make up for the $30,000 a year you pay for 20 more years after you turn 65?  That's $600,000 of your retirement money you'll need for health care that NO ONE NEEDED until now.  Oops, I forgot to adjust it for inflation.  If we assume the cost goes up 10% a year and you are 20 years away from retirement, that will be about $112,000 a year in 2037 and, by 2057 (if you live that long), 20 more years of 10% increases would be about $500,000 PER YEAR for your health insurance.  The Trumps can certainly afford $500/yr for health insurance but is that part of your retirement plan?  

And, don't forget, the only reason private insurance remains "reasonable" is BECAUSE there is a low-cost alternative for seniors.  Take that alternative away and private costs can run wild – especially when you dismantle the Government agencies that are meant to regulate them.  Fixing the health care system should be our legistlators' top priority.  This is something that will significantly impact every man, woman and child in this country and, with an aging population – it's likely to get much worse, not better if we don't act now.  Well, we did act – Obmacare was the first step but that step is being torn apart and replaced with $500,000/yr health insurance.

Of course, if I'm rich enough to afford $500,000/yr health insurance and you are not, I gain a tremendous economic advantage over you, don't I?  You may be smarter than me, you may be harder working than me but, because my Daddy left me more money than your Daddy – it only takes one little medical issue for you or your family to derail your entire life.  That's less competition for me – a legislated nobility under the disguise of Capitalism.  

It would also be nice for me and my children if you and your children were less educated.  Certainly we can afford better schools than you can but what if you get a scholarship?  Then you might compete with my kids.  Don't worry, once again the GOP has the backs of the Top 1%.  The plan includes major reductions in the tax credits for tuition that help students and their families offset college costs, moves to treat employer-provided tuition payments as taxable income, and proposes taxing endowment income at prestigious private universities to stop those bleeding hearts from giving your kids spot to some poor kid – just because they are smart and deserve it

Image result for trump education

So we attack your health, your education and we force your states to tax you more at the local level than we can possibly save you at the Federal level but have we really made sure you and your family will never rise out of the lower classes and threaten us?  Surely we can do better than that when we have the President, the House, the Senate and the Courts…  Yes we can!  We can HIKE your Federal Taxes if your income is below $75,000 a year (after re-defining "Middle Class" so we can claim to keep our promises).  Some of the other evils noted by the NYTimes (Fake News!) include:

  • Lifting a 1954 ban on political activism by churches
  • Conferring of a new legal right for fetuses 
  • Constraining the ability of states and local governments to levy their own taxes, pressuring them to limit spending on health care, education, public transportation and social services.
  • Give massive tax cuts to wealthy and corporations, which means we can outspend newcomers by a wide margin and keep a moat around our businesses – and our wealth.  

And that's not even the worst part.  Would you like to know what the worst part is?  It's that Team Trump CLAIMS that this tax plan "only" adds $1.5Tn to our deficit but that is a LIE!  The $1.5Tn number is ON TOP OF the completely irresponsible deficits we're currently running.  The very same one Trump ran against in the first place.  Rather than doing something to reduce the deficits before they destroy the country, we are adding $1.5Tn to them.  Does that seem rational to you?

Let's say you earn $100,000 a year and your family is $100,000 in debt.  The GOP tax plan is saying that you can fix your debt problem by spending an extra $75,000.  How?   Don't ask how, the problem is solved – go out and have fun!  

So the true cost of the Trump Tax Plan (aside from the dead bodies and shattered lives and loss of opportunity) is the cost of not doing anyting about our already $20Tn debt for another 10 years while running up $9Tn more in debt that is already projected at our current pace and another $1.5Tn to fund the Tax Cuts.  If you assume a rational Government would have found a way to cut 10% of the $9Tn ($900M) instead of spending $1.5Tn more – then the true cost of Tax Cuts for the Rich are $2.5Tn and there are 160M taxpayers so that's $15,625 per taxpayer of debt to fund Trump's Tax Cut.

It's not a coinidence that that's EVERY SINGLE PENNY of what the GOP claims the average American will save under their plan because that is the revenue-neutral way in which they trick the bottom 99% into borrowing $2.5Tn in order to transfer $1.5Tn to the Top 1%.  And you suckers are just sitting there and taking it?  Not me, I'm furious!  

CALL/EMAIL YOUR SENATOR – Or this is on you!  


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  1. Bitcoin doesn't have anything on these markets – getting parabolic on a tax cut that will increase GDP by 0.1% a year in the best case scenario! And probably will have long term detrimental effects on the health, education and security of the nation. Oh well… 


  2. Good Morning.


  3. What's so frustrating about this tax bill is that every single argument has now been debunked by neutral parties – growth will not be supercharged, the tax cuts will not pay for themselves, businesses will not increase investments, the top 0.01% are not overtaxes relative to other countries and yet this group of evil people in the Senate and the House keep on pushing forward with it. It's like some people who don't believe in global warming in the face of scientific evidence! Oh wait….


  4. Lock him up…. Flynn charged but most likely Mueller going easy on him because of his cooperation:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/breaking-59


  5. Flynnpeachment????  :)


  6. I'm amazed at how well this works.  Thanks, Phil.


  7. Oil. Still, my portfolio loves standstill days.  Think I'll take some time off today. Enjoy.


  8. Good morning! Phil – can we chat coins today at some point?


  9. BDC/Coins

    The GRE wallet came online and I was able to get some. Understand the risk that you have always pointed out and appreciate your inputs. What is the next big coins that you think could make some noice?

    regards


  10. crypto in the trillions prediction. Obvious to us of course, but the weird thing with these guys is they don't know WHY, and i have evidentiary theory as to the why when justifying that valuation (actually, quadrillions but, whatever).


  11. I'm wondering if a bet both ways wouldn't pay off big… one thing I think is sure, this market isn't going to stagnate here. Scary to pick a direction… wonder how many are waiting to see the tax bill pass before buying? Question is how much more will we get if they do pass it? Frothy usually means a pull back, and it sure feels frothy. Just thinking aloud here…


  12. When is the Saudi oil IPO?  Is there a timeframe?  Just curious how long we think this artificial inflation is "scheduled" for.


  13. pat/coins – there are so many! I'll try to keep some ideas flowing however.

    I like EnergyCoin; they trade on Bittrex. They have a fairly low market cap ($14M) based on where other cryptos can go they have that "100x" capability that I look for (disclosure: warning! not likely! just possible).

    I contacted the EO and he said they are a bona fide non-profit in the Netherlands with 5 board members. Running a crypto as a non-profit with a fair, organic launch for everyone, and not as an "ICO" run like a "company" is the only proper way to do it, IMO. So I like this about them. The roadmap is a little nebulous on how they service renewable energy but I have some ideas there… :)

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/energycoin


  14. Flynn is no Trump… actually admitting a lie, crazy huh?


  15. Phil—if AMZN buys TEVA for over 23 will I still have to meet you at Times Square? ;-)


  16. Good morning!  

    Glad I took the money and ran on /TF, no good dip goes unbought these days.  

    Oil blasting up to $59, we might see $60 before they are done.  

    I start poking short here ($58.85) and add one at $58.95 and another 2 at $59.10 but I pull the plug if we're over than and wait for a break back below (to add 2 with tight stops) or do it again at $59.85.

    Market is right now reacting to each "Tax on" and "Tax off" rumor, not much point doing anything until something definitive happens. 

    Image result for wax on wax off animated gif

    Big Chart/StJ – Maybe we need a logarithmic scale?  cheeky

    Tax Bill/StJ – You keep working off the notion that these people CARE about actually helping people or balancing budgets.  They don't.  They are sponsored agents of the Top 1%, placed there to push the agenda of the Oligarchy that is taking control of this country.  People like that don't care about anything but lining their own pockets – not even their children's futures.   Maddie was saying the kids think McCain will stand up against this because he's old and dying and has nothing to lose and I explained to her that he's in too deep – he doesn't want to lose his reputation – he doesn't want all his friends (GOP Conservatives) to think he betrayed them during his last days.  Doing what's good for America has nothing at all to do with this horror show. 

    You are very welcome Lalalinda!  

    Wise move Baron.  Take Monday too.  

    Coins/BDC – Sure, call any time. 

    Both ways/Mkucs – 10% up or down is kind of a given, I think.  That's 24 DIA points, now $243 and the March $210 puts are 0.85 and the March $255 calls are $1 so $1.85 for the pair and let's say we get a $10 move (5%).  The March $220 puts are $1.50 and the March $245 calls are $4.40 so big reward up, small loss down but, at $20, the March $230 puts are $2.69, so a small win there.  

    What that tells us, more than anything, is you can get very long odds against the Dow going higher between now and March.  We can use that for an upside hedge but the downside does not have a big enough reward to make a good pair trade if you are leaning bearish.

    Aramco/Jeffl – They are hoping for Q2 but have already backed off and said maybe they will only list it on their own exchange – because no one would buy into their BS valuation.  That doesn't make it any less urgent for them to jack prices up – it will go on all year if it has to.

    Flynn/Mkucs – Well, admitting after you are caught isn't exactly noble but Trump doesn't even do that.  I can't believe he had the balls to say the Access Hollywood footage was fake.  That's really impressively ballsy.  

    TEVA/Jabob – Oh that would go right on the JumboTron – or whatever they call it these days (gosh I'm old!).  

    Hey, in fact, Anderson Cooper needs a new host for New Years.  Wouldn't it be great if it were you kissing my ass?  devil


  17. That would be awesome! :-)


  18. I'm waiting to hear Trump say he doesn't know any Billy Bush and he's never been on a bus.


  19. Wheee!  

    Flynn is going to testify that "Trump directed him to make contact with Russian agents"  – THAT is very impeachable!  


  20. Market reacting to Flynn saying Trump directed him to talk to Russians.  This will be a quick impeachment.


  21. No longer glad about cashing /TF, that would have been great at 1,525 but I did make some on /YM so not too unhappy.  

    Tempting to play /TF long above 1,525 but I hate playing things I don't have conviction on.  


  22. starting to load up on some GE under 18 with a 5.35% yield good for some armchair trades!

    Tax reform has been delayed !!!!


  23. LOL, CNBC saying these charges came out of nowhere.  What kind of right-wing bubble do you have to be in to not know this was a serious investigation that was working it's way up to a President who has, so far, lied about EVERYTHING he's ever done. 

    If the GOP votes to ram this tax plan through under these circumstances, they should all be investigated!  

    OMG, /TF just hit 1,515 – now I'm pissed I was cautious.  Glad we pressed our other hedges though.  


  24. GOOGL has dropped 50 pts in 4 days!!!


  25. GE is showing a cut in dividend, now 2.7%on my IB screen


  26. Dollar plunged – would be worse if it didn't.

    1,509!  F!!!  

    This massively strengthens the obstruction of justice charges in the Comey firing.  

    1,500?!? 

    1,495!?!

    This is silly, I'm buying 2 long /TF.   At least a bounce!


  27. WSJ headline:

    GOP Says It Has the Votes to Pass Tax Bill

    Below that is:

    Flynn to Plead Guilty to Lying to FBI

     

    Mike Flynn, President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, is expected to plead guilty Friday morning to lying to the FBI about his communications with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. in December 2016. Mr. Flynn made statements “willfully and knowingly” even though they were false, a court document said. 1036

    Also:

    Regulator Will Allow Bitcoin Futures

    The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will allow two major Chicago exchanges, CME Group and Cboe Global Markets, to launch bitcoin futures.


  28. Did that PG call sale at $2.00 ever trigger?  Not for me.  I am wondering if should move it out to Feb and take advantage of the high vix?


  29. Well, that was another $2K on /TF to the upside and I'm happy enough (though probably will be pissed again later) for the moment.  

    PG/Tangled – I didn't expect to get there right away.  Of course today is an anomaly so I'd rather wait and see.


  30. Lala can not find any div. cut for GE


  31. Major new Donald Trump-Russia bombshell breaks involving several key Republican Senators



  32. Bitcoin Is the World’s Hottest Currency, but No One’s Using It


  33. Michael Flynn says Donald Trump ordered him to conspire with Russia; also testifying against Trump family



  34. BTW, tweet of the month last night for those who didn't read it:

     

    Donald Trump Jr: Hypothetical question?  Can my 2 year old get in trouble 4 sexual harassment for asking his teacher to come to his place naked after school?

    reply by Stephen Colbert: Non-hypothetical question: are you insane?


  35. Senate has votes to pass bill.  Flake is on board.


  36. Lala thanks GE but I see this report is from 11/13/17!!! More than 14 days ago????


  37. Looks like a short flash dip!!!


  38. yodi/ge

     

    Yes, it happened on 11/12 or 13th







  39. Looks like they have the votes.  Oddly enough, the Flynn news makes it a "now or never" think so the Senators who might have wanted to delay and work on it further now are taking what they can before the whole Government goes into chaos. 


  40. BDC/ Mining…  Do you mine for coins? if so which ones.  I cruising the net, found Genesis Mining but they only do the major coins.  Was thinking about GRE.  Just curious and realize its marginal at best, but like the old SETI program, why not have your desktop working for you when your not on it?


  41. Like a possible government shutdown on Dec 8th that Trump says would be good for him?

    Maybe shutting it down isn't a bad idea….


  42. I'd bet he's thinking about nuking N. Korea about now… just to manage the news flow.

    Scary.


  43. love freedom? Stay out of Wyoming.


  44. Meanwhile, forgot to mention, I like a new penny stock – AMYZF (0.19) based on this article:

    How to Mine Cobalt Without Going to Congo

    Scientists working for American Manganese Inc., located in the suburbs of Vancouver, have developed a way to produce enough of the bluish-gray metal to power all the electric cars on the road today without drilling into the ground: by recycling faulty batteries.

    “Mining batteries is much more profitable than mining the ground,” said Larry Reaugh, the president of American Manganese, which is patenting a method to draw out all of the metals in rechargeable batteries. “Rather than mining ore that’s 2 percent cobalt, you’re mining a battery that has 100 percent cobalt in it.”

    American Manganese wants to recycle the one in 10 lithium-ion batteries — used in everything from home electronics to smart phones — that fail quality-control tests and end up in hazardous-waste dumps. Doing this could yield as much as 4,000 tons of cobalt, according to Reaugh. If true, that’s equal to the material used in all electric vehicles on the road this year. 

    Add in the 311,000 metric tons of electric car batteries that Bloomberg New Energy Finance anticipates will stop working by 2025, and the potential trove of metals grows exponentially.

    Just another fun one to pick up for the kids' portfolios (nothing I expect to do anything short-term and maybe worthless).


  45. Good example today of how balance and hedging make your life much easier.  The Dow drops 300 points but, because we're hedged, we don't panic and then it comes back – so there was nothing to worry about.

    It's crazy when you have no hedges (or balance) and you are forced to make spot decisions to liquidate in the middle of a panic.  

    We're bouncing back now because there's a 2pm vote on Taxes and, essentially, it's being guaranteed by the GOP – like that 3rd vote on Health Care!  

    Gotta stay ready for anything.


  46. Great day for Rex Tillerson to resign, don't you think? Let's get it all done today, MAGA!


  47. Love how quickly they are the White House is painting Flynn as an Obama guy:

    President Trump's personal lawyer said Friday that former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn's guilty plea implicates no one "other than Mr. Flynn."

    Cobb described Flynn as a "former Obama administration official," a seemingly deliberate attempt to distance Flynn from the president.

    Earlier Friday Flynn pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI about conversations he had with former Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in late 2016, when Flynn was a top member of Trump's transition team.


  48. Wyoming/BDC – grand theft Friday, indeed.  very few things get my blood boiling more than "civil forfeiture." Can hardly believe he signed what he did.


  49. That tax bill still needs to be reconciled with the House proposal – lots of arm twisting will be needed to get that done!


  50. I was told that Trump is innocent! Like OJ, Like Vick, Like Clinton!!!!


  51. Flynn / Rustle – Worse, if you recall they didn't ask Flynn to resign originally because they didn't believe he lied but now they are saying that the indictment validates the fact that he was asked to resign! This White House is located in  an alternate reality universe. It's bizarre, really.


  52. Innocent like Bill Cosby!!!


  53. Phil

    Ola from San Diego!

    Need your input please.

    I sold some VZ March 2018 $48 calls for $0.50 a while back, all covered by the underlying stock, that Ihave held for a long time for the dividend. Now the calls are $3.50

    I was just trying to juice my return, but for reasons I don’t understand, the stock has taken off like a MOMO over the past 2weeks.

    How would you keep the shares, and not allow to be called away. Next ex dividend date is Feb 6, I believe.

    Thanks


  54. Maya my two cents. Mar 48 VZ call has still .82 cents of extrinsic value and the div. is only .59 cents so I would still wait as March ist still 4 month away so wait before doing any rolls.


  55. Phil – American Manganese reminds of a couple of penny stocks that were going to recycle old tires and recover oil and steel.  Maybe this is for real, but I doubt it.  Doesn't mean the stock can't be manipulated higher.


  56. CG/Phil – any interest in Carlye around here? 11.2% dividend. Armchair play? Buy/Write?


  57. Scott CG Company has it's finger in many pies. Many in Africa. Finviz shows only 6.15%!  So for me I have to pay 35% tax on div. so down to 3% Negative cash flow. I think I pass re Armchair.


  58. Time for another dumpster dive.  Bought some KODK at $3.10, the lowest since KODK emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago.  Printing division is losing a lot of money, but their packaging division is healthy and growing.  Although they sold their digital patents, they still have,what look to be valuable patents in material sciences.  Jeff Clarke, their CEO, is a pretty sharp guy.

    Lotsa warts, but think they can avoid bankruptcy and therefore, worth a shot.


  59. Scott paying 35% tax is because is a LP group.


  60. NKTR – now I discover it..  dang.


  61. CG/Yodi – thx. TDA is showing me 6.17% div on website, and Thinkorswim is showing me 11.29%. hmm. Looking at div history, looks like the div varies qtr by qtr.


  62. Thought the vote was set for 2:00… all they're talking about is Flynn. Waiting for market close now?


  63. American Manganese rocketing today, up over 30% on what will likely be 10X avg. volume.  Good story with the patents but of course will need to raise more money.  Saw another battery related penny stock in a Tesla seeking alpha article this week.  Elcora Advanced Materials. ECORF OTC.  Good management knowledge in batteries (CTO professor from Dalhousie University who worked with Jeff Dahn (now at Tesla who won Canadian Governor General's award for innovation related to his lithium ion battery work) and graphite/graphene and starting to test work with Chinese battery manufacturers and MOU this week with Lockheed Martin.  Stock up large this week on the news.  Both companies tin cupping it in the financial markets with private placements but have potential. 


  64. Phil/TEVA

    Are you making any adjustment to the TEVA play?  I am still short the 2019 $10 C.    I have TEVA stock 1000 sh,  short 5  2019 12.5 P and short 10  2019 $10 C.  I keep hearing rumblings about AMZN buying them.  Thanks 


  65. If you missed my posting about Mr. Stick yesterday, now's the time to buy YM if you think four in a row is not a fluke…


  66. What a recovery.  Tax cuts trump impeachment, I guess…

    Image result for rock paper scissors lizard spock

    Still, what a great first day of trading for our hedge fund.  Congrats to all those participating!

    Cobb/Rustle – That's a good lawyer!  

    Wyoming/BDC – John Oliver did a good special on this last year, crazy stuff. 

    Reconciled/StJ – The House would pass this bill even if the Senate required Satan Worship at this point.

    Ola Maya!   Yeah, that's a big spike.

    So you have the stock and you sold the March $48 calls for 0.50 and you wan to avoid giving back $3.95?  Well, the 2020 $50 calls are $4.70, so you can roll to those and you have good coverage and no danger of being called away for a while or you could buy 1x the 2020 $55 calls for $2.80 and roll the short March $48 calls up to 2x the June $50 calls at $3.20, which would cost you net 0.55 (1x) and roll your call-away strike up to $50 (with more rolls ahead). If VZ keeps going higher, you'll need more longs at some point, of course, but at least you get +$2 per share before that's even an issue.

    And what Yodi said – unless it's a tax thing – who cares if they call you away?

    AMYZF/Albo – What is a penny stock other than a story?  This one is in Bloomberg, not some rag sheet, so I though it was worth a toss.  Up 32% in Canada already - not bad for a day trade (I picked up 10,000 for the kids at 0.19 – that's the last time I'll probably think about them until next year). 

    CG/Scott – Assuming they don't blow Q4, they should be good for about $250M this year but $6.5Bn is 26 times that and last year they only made $6.4M and the year before they lost $18.4M so this is the best-case scenario for them and still only $250M and what happens when the market turns south?  Companies like this can take precipitous dives and these guys were $20 in July of 2015 and then $9.50 six months later.  So that's why I wouldn't touch them.  Also, they only have options out to June and they are thinly traded with wide spreads – another reason not to play.  

    And what Yodi said!  

    KODK/Albo – They still exist?  Interesting pick.  They have $1.5Bn in revenues and you're paying just $133M for them so I think it's a worthy toss if you believe they have a chance to turn around.  They have plenty of cash to burn through a couple of more years of losses, so interesting. 

    They've come down to 1/1,000th their value in 1967, when they were the 3rd most valuable company on the planet.  Think about that!  

    NKTR/Scott – Yeah, a bit chasey now

    Senate not actually voting yet, that's strange if they really had the votes.

    Batteries/Stu – I like the patent appeal on AMYZF and cobalt is a story that's not going away.  

    TEVA/Lala – From the review:

    LTP:

    • TEVA – Now the 2020s are out so we can roll our 30 2019 $17.50 calls at $1.95 ($5,850) to 40 of the 2020 $12.50 ($5)/20 ($2.50) bull call spread at $2.50 ($10,000) and we'll roll our 30 short 2019 $25 puts at $11.70 ($35,100) to 30 short 2019 $20 puts at $8 ($24,000).  As we initially collected $28,500 on the short puts, our net credit becomes $17,400 or $5.80 per contract so our break-even becomes $14.20.

    OOP:

    • TEVA – Another one that is stupidly cheap.  Let's roll our 10 2019 $15 calls at $2 ($2,000) to 20 of the 2020 $12.50 ($3.90)/$20 ($2) bull call spreads at net $1.90 ($3,800) and we'll roll our 10 short 2019 $25 puts at $12.60 ($12,600) to 20 short 2020 $15 puts at $5.10 ($10,200).

    I doubt AMZN will buy them.  They are talking to generic makers in anticipation of getting into on-line pill sales.   It will be bad if they don't use TEVA but that's not likely, they'll use many suppliers and it's not new business, it will just be taken from other customers. 

    There's no reason AMZN would buy a single generic maker as even TEVA, who is the biggest, could only supply about 20% of the market's needs.  Then AMZN would have to do 80% of its business with competitors.  That's not smart unless they see it as having "house brands" of medicine but then they'd have to market to doctors etc – nightmare! 

    Your spread sounds very conservative, you were planning to be called away at $10 and you almost certainly will be.  There's no magical way to fix it at $15 unless you want to flip the stock to options and then you could take the $15,350 and buy 20 of the 2020 $12.50 calls for $5.80 ($11,600) and roll the 10 short 2019 $10 calls at $6.50 ($6,500) to 20 of the 2020 $17.50 calls at $3.85 ($7,700) so you put $3,950 in your pocket and, if all goes well, you get another $10,000 in 2020 but all that is to AVOID simply taking $10,000 and being happy in Jan 2019.

    Actually, you can ditch the whole thing now for net $9 and roll the 10 short 2019 $10 puts ($1.10) to 10 short 2020 $15 puts ($4) and pick up $2,900 and the worst thing that happens there is you are re-assigned 1,000 TEVA at net $11.10.  Then you could pair that with 10 of the 2020 $12.50 ($6)/17.50 ($3.85) spreads at $2.15 ($2,150) and you've still put $750 in your pocket plus the net $9,000 and your upside is another $5,000 at $17.50 or back in the stock at net/net $11.85.

    Stick/MrM – With vote or no vote, it's a real wild-card.  


  67. VZ / Phil – I know that you mention it often, but like Maya I learned the hard way that while on paper it looks great to go full cover on your position, 1/2 a cover is a much better choice in many cases. At least it gives you some flexibility to roll a bit higher if needed. But the temptation to go full cover is hard to fight.


  68. Oops…

    BREAKING: Jared Kushner is the “very senior member of the presidential transition team” mentioned in the statement of offense as speaking to Flynn on Dec 22nd about the UN resolution regarding Israel, two people familiar with the matter tell @NBCNews


  69. Phil/TEVA

    Thanks, Phil.  I'm still not adept at rolling these options.


  70. Phil/Stick – good point, not a normal day, I shouldn't expect a normal pattern, so tread carefully everyone.

    Although my NQ has done a nice move since noon, but nada on YM.


  71. AMYZF / Phil – Picked some up as wel as ECORF.  My fun bets instead of digital coins. 


  72. Stick still working… what a day and green all around for the week.


  73. mkucstars / stick - yeah, that was fun, rode it tight and got out on the turn, good for 20 points on NQ and 40 on YM, paid for lunch (for a month…)


  74. Russell bounced at the 50 day average. S&P barely pierced the 10 day. Rex made it through the day, but the rumor is the CIA head will get his job. Just what we need, the CIA running the state dept. 


  75. Full cover/StJ – You have to accept the fact that you may get called away at the strike and, if you don't want that to happen – it's not worth the risk.  More people ask us for help on full covers than on short puts by a mile. 

    Kushner/StJ – Oh that's no big deal, Trump would throw him under the bus AND drive the bus. 

    You're welcome Lala. 

    Nov auto sales at 17.48M, 1.5% less than last year's all-time record.  

    Fun/Stu – Yeah, they are just fun to watch and check in on once in a while.  Like planting magic beans. 

    Well that was an exciting week and, on the whole, we're up 42 points (1.6%) though you'd think it was 10% the way people have been acting.  

    Dow is up 770 but people forget the Dow is at 24,220 so 770 is just 3% – and they almost gave half of it back this morning.

    I'm going into the weekend with 2 short /CL, 2 long /KC and that's it. 

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  76. Kushner / Phil – Don't know about that. You need to take into account Ivanka…


  77. I can't see him getting on another bus… he's not THAT stupid.


  78. Dalai Lama to Obama: ‘You are young and can do a lot’




  79. Bitcoin, Ignorance, and You




  80. Is Mike Pence a fool or a knave?






  81. Phil – Muck – StJL – ALL – again thank you for the salubrious BD salutations. Friday we relaxed and recovered, holidays and getting old is a bitch.  And now this…

    1020 – Flynnpeachment????  :)

    Rustle – President Trump's personal lawyer said Friday that former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn's guilty plea implicates no one "other than Mr. Flynn."

    I am sticking to my story as published on Feb. 12th, 2017… which was prior to all the other speculation by the so called pundits.  Indeed Flynn's plea implicates no one other than himself, that's part of the deal he cut for making such a small plea.

    Here's the next sign post up ahead, FOMC raise on 13th, tax plan gets scuttled between Senate and House, AND the other part of Flynn's deal…

    Flynn's testimony which has him rolling over on much bigger fish, to be revealed perhaps as a big fat XMAS present?  Like we said, In-Flynn-er-ation.  Stay tuned and stay thirsty, Out.


  82. Russia investigation ‘wearing’ on White House, despite spin


  83. A Hasty, Hand-Scribbled Tax Bill Sets Off an Outcry


  84. Good morning!  

    I'll be in NYC tomorrow to do the Nasdaq TV spot in the morning. 

    This is a very good article on Market Psychology and Bitcoin – also an interesting newsletter in general:

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, and the Greatest Bubble in History

    PSW Investments has 2 Bitcoins left from 4 we bought 2 years ago at $2,400 TOTAL.  Our stop is $10,000 each now.  We used the other 2 to buy 150,000,000 GreenCoins, which are currently worth $49,350 at 0.000329, so we've done more than twice as well with the GreenCoins – though they are less liquid at the moment.  

    Our goal is to foster more interest in GreenCoin and we're beginning that by accepting them for 2018  Annual Memberships during the month of December.  The idea is to encourage people to go through the process of getting GreenCoins (a bit of a pain) and then transferring them from your wallet to ours.

    As an incentive, we are GUARANTEEING a conversion rate of 0.00044, which is still 33% higher than the current buy and more than twice as much as the week's lows so a 33-50% discount off the regular Annual Membership prices for people who are willing to learn how to work with cyrptocurrencies – which is a good thing to know how to do these days.

    At $329 per 1M GreenCoins – they also can make nice, environmentally-friendly Christmas gifts.

    For those of you who are interested, the official ROUNDED COST (which we will accept), in GreenCoins, of each Membership Level is:

    • PSW Report @ $995/year = 2,260,000 GreenCoins 
    • Top Trade Alerts @ $1,495/year = 3,400,000 GreenCoins 
    • Trend Watcher Membership @ $2,499/year = 5,680,000 GreenCoins 
    • Basic Live Chat Membership @ $4,995/year = 11,350,000 GreenCoins 
    • Premium Membership @ $9,995/year =  22,700,000 GreenCoins 

    To pay, you can simply send an EMail to Greg (admin@) and set up the payment in GreenCoins via wallet transfer (see how cool it will be when you can tell people you know how to do that!).

    Keep in mind, it does not make sense to pay more than 0.0004 (not even 0.00044) for the GreenCoins because, by the time you transfer them and such, there will be no profit.  At the time we first discussed this last week (in our Live Chat Room), the coins were 0.00022 and the low of the week since then was 0.00018 but, for the MONTH, the high was over 0.0045 – 10 times more than we are accepting them for.

    That's our motivation – it's no secret.  We are saving Greg the trouble of tediously bidding on GreenCoins we're looking to accumulate at the lows (it took us months to get to 150M at the time) and helping you learn this valuable skill but, behind it all is the possibility that we can make 10x or more on the money down the road.  

    There are layers and layers to this project as it is our intention, in 2018, to see if we can generate wider interest for GreenCoins and, hopefully, push them up to as much as a penny over time – where we will certainly sell at least 1/3 of our holding for what should be $1M by then.  

    It's very, Very, VERY possible this will fail and we'll be lucky just to recover our investment – but it's not a huge gamble with a very huge potential pay-off.  

    Step one is accepting the GreenCoins and generating some volume on the exchanges (GreenCoin is currently barely in the Top 100 at 95 but was near the bottom when we began buying them 2 years ago) and step two will be discussing our project and step 3 will be to wrangle other vendors into accepting GreenCoins and the reason I like GreenCoins in the first place is that, for each GreenCoin mined, one GreenCoin is also created and used to reward people who generate carbon credits.  

    Over time, we hope to put a bit of effort into creating a solid, verifiable chain that directly ties the credits to the coins, which will then make it very marketable to companies who want to do a bit to help the environment.  

    Keep in mind this is all an experiment and it's possible, down the road, that we may take our GreenCoin lessons and start a new currency with tighter controls (what they call an ICO) but, for now, we'll see if the whole CryptoCurrency fad lasts another year while we gain experience with one that's already gone through all the struggles of creation for us.

    The dream is, of course, we get someone like WFM, SFM, TSLA or SCTY to buy into our concept and accept GreenCoins as a sort of coupon deal (maybe let you buy coupons with your GreenCoins, much like we're doing with the Memberships).  That would send volume through the roof and really move to legitimize the currency.

    Currently, the best place to trade GreenCoin is http://www.CoinExchange.io (another project is getting it traded on Bittrex, the top coin site) and the link for GRE is https://www.coinexchange.io/market/GRE/BTC – it's a bit confusing because everything is priced in BitCoins but generally they are trading at 0.00000002 BitCoins and, if a BitCoin is $10,500, that's 0.00021, which is half of what we're willing to exchange them for as Annual Membership Payments (no other discounts apply, of course). 

    Also, and this is above my level of coin knowledge, it is possible to MINE GreenCoins and then it's even cheaper (in theory), but don't even ask me how that works. 

    Here's a nice video explaining GreenCoin by a fan (take predictions with a grain of salt!):

    They are currently rebuilding the GreenCoin site to make it user-freindly.  2018 is going to be interesting!  


  85. Cryptocurrencies- still wrapping my head around this phenomenon but given the recent headlines on price movement does that not defeat one of the initial so-called purposes of alternate currencies, namely price stability? How can one price any good or service with any degree of accuracy if the means of remuneration fluctuates so wildly?


  86. Oh it's totally ridiculous though, of course, Zimbabwe and Venezuela have worse daily fluctuations than BitCoin so, for them, it is a relatively stable currency.  Stability would come with transactions but I don't see people running from Dollars to Satoshi considering that, 20 years after the Euro was introduced – people still don't like those.   

    That's part of the value of a Dollar, $18Tn of GDP is transacted in Dollars and much more than that in trade and notional investments around the world the the value is price-checked every second of every day compared in large samples to every other currency and that's what buys you the stability that is far more valuable than whatever "advantages" BitCoin claims to offer (like losing coins for no understandable reason, hacking, etc).  

    Still, it will be fun while it lasts and maybe we're wrong and they do replace currencies.  I'd hate to not have anything if that happens! 


  87.  Futures are off to a flying start, Dow up 200 points.  


  88. I took my lumps on index shorts last Tuesday when you wrote, “Imagine the rally if it actually passes!”  Glad I did, market has just gone higher and higher




  89. 5 charts that show a big market crash could be on its way






  90. Market Goes All ‘Bitcoin’



  91. How the Republicans Broke Congress