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Final Thursday Thoughts of 2017

Another day, another low-volume rally.

Low-volume rallies have been the hallmark of 2017 and we used to complain about them but they are now the "new normal" as the market climbs ever-higher on less than half the volume we had last year.  This morning, the Dow Futures (/YMare up 50 points, at 24,840 and we're shorting them here, with a stop above the 24,850 line ($50 per contract loss) and hopefully we get another nice move down like we did yesterday, when the afternoon sell-off netted us a nice $1,965 gain for the day in our  Live Member Chat Room.  

The Russell (/TF) was our first short of the morning and my 7:51 am comment to our Members was:

Our Futures are flat but Europe has turned red so we may follow.  Still liking /TFshort below 1,550 and /YM 24,800 is another good shorting line, lined up with /ES2,690 and /NQ 6,465.

That led to our Russell gains and then, at 11:25 we added shorts on the Nikkei (/NKD) Futures, saying:

Speaking of Icarus – /NKD at 22,990 and I have to take a poke at those short below 23,000 as it's a great shorting line ($5/point per contract).

We actually took those gains too early as /NKD fell all the way past 2,800 before bouncing, for over $1,000 per contract gains on the day on that index.  See – I told you Futures trading was fun!  Today I said to our Members:

We're getting a little run-up into the open but, once again, that's not what Europe is doing so fake moves, most likely and same Dow (/YM) short should work again around 24,850 (tight stops over).  If you want to play an index bullish for the fake – /TF down at 1,545 with tight stops below that line should work.

I'm not showing you these trades to brag, I'm showing them to you to make a point.  Here we are, consistently making $1,000-2,000 per day trading futures with none of our money at risk in the markets over the holidays.  We're back to cash every night and ready to trade whatever in the morning.  If your portfolio gives you anxiety – YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG!!!  

Whether you learn how to trade futures and hedge your stock positions from Phistockworld or one of the other 1,000 people that promise you better market returns – you should be learning SOMETHING.  Trading is a profession and it takes a lot of time and a lot of practice to get good at it.  If you don't take the time to learn the craft and you just jump in and buy stocks – you are simply a gambler and you may as well just play roulette to plan your retirement.

Yesterday, for example, I laid out why we liked Energous (WATT) and why we stuck with them through a tough year.  At the time I was writing the post, they were up $16 pre-market and they fell back to $15 before blasting up another 50% for the session, to over $23.

Remember, I can only tell you what a stock is likely to do and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!

As we discussed in yesterday morning's PSW Report (the one you can have delivered to your inbox, pre-market, for just $3/day), it's not that difficult to win trading thin-market Futures as we just have to look for moves that are not sustained by Fundamentals (news, other markets) and bet that they return to the mean once volume trading kicks in.   Couple that with good money management strategies and then select positions that have good, solid stop lines that are not likely to get gapped past and PRESTO!  – consistent $1,000 gains!

It's not our fault that most traders playing the market are mindless sheep – we're not the wolves here – just the shepherds who are happy to take some of the wool you are going to shed anyway when you make stupid market bets – especially the ones where you are the sucker paying a premium to speculate!

2017 has been a banner year for speculation and the market has been on quite a tear so we can expect plenty of opportunities to bet against idiocy in 2018 as well.  Speaking of idiocy, BitCoin is back to $13,865 and, despite many angry predictions when we called the short at $18,500 – so far, we don't regret cashing out.  And we certainly don't regret holding our GreenCoins, which blasted over a tenth of a cent this morning – up almost 5x for the month.  Congratulations to those who played along at home and, if you aren't cashing out at least 1/3 at this price to lock in gains – shame on you!  

It was on December 3rd, when we tweeted out our Annual Membership sale priced in GreenCoins which were, at the time, trading for 0.00022 and traded at that price on the dips for much of the month.  Our price schedule said we would accept GreenCoins toward PSW Annual Memberships at an 0.00044 conversion rate – guaranteeing a 100% gain (or a 50% discount) to anyone who participated.  As noted at the time:

For those of you who are interested, the official ROUNDED COST (which we will accept), in GreenCoins, of each Membership Level is:

  • PSW Report @ $995/year = 2,260,000 GreenCoins 
  • Top Trade Alerts @ $1,495/year = 3,400,000 GreenCoins 
  • Trend Watcher Membership @ $2,499/year = 5,680,000 GreenCoins 
  • Basic Live Chat Membership @ $4,995/year = 11,350,000 GreenCoins 
  • Premium Membership @ $9,995/year =  22,700,000 GreenCoins 

For future reference, when somebody offers you a risk-free opportunity to double your money – TAKE IT!!!  In this particular case, had you bought 22,700,000 GreenCoins for 0.00022, you would have spent $4,994 and, had you wisely waited until the last mintute to pay (since you had a guaranteed buyer at 0.00044, you had nothing to lose), those coins are now worth 0.001018, which is $23,108.60 for a gain of $18,114.60 (362%) for the month and you can still buy the Annual Membership for $9,995 cash (we still accept cash, for now) and have $8,116.40 left over.

So a FREE PSW Premium Annual Membership AND $8,116.40 in profit is what we call a win/win for our Members and, if you want to learn how to construc winning trade ideas like this – then you should consider becoming a Member in 2018.  There's never been a better time, we are launcing 4 brand new portfolios next Tuesday (Jan 2nd)!

Of course, PSW  is also a huge winner as the people who already gave us their GreenCoins got a 50% discount on their Membership and we now have more than double the full-priced Membership in Greencoins.  Our 150M GreenCoins have jumped in value from the $1,200 we spent 2 years ago (2 BitCoins at the time) to $152,700 so we're up over 100x and we are hoping for another 100x as we run more promotions like this in the year ahead (and get other vendors on board as well).

All this is just a lesson for our Members in how market bubbles work (cryptocurrencies in this case) and how to take advantage of them because, after all, what's the fun in watching a market bubble form if you can't figure out how to benefit.  

By giving our Members a risk-free way to participate, we enabled them to learn the process of playing the coin market in a risk-free manner and, as it turned out, were were all able to profit from the experience and that, in a nutshell, is how we've played 2017 – it's all very silly BUT, if they are going to hand out free money – who are we to turn it down?  

 

 


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  1. Was hoping to finish 2017 without having to add lines but we keep on winning! Tiring….


  2. The real cost of the tax cuts:

    https://www.vox.com/2017/12/22/16812144/gop-tax-bill-loopholes-cost-debt-irs

    JCT, for example, evaluates the new break for pass-through entities largely as simply reducing the amount of tax revenue the government will collect from pass-through entities rather than really kicking the tire on the new pass-through tax shelters we're going to see.

    That's not JCT's fault per se. It's not their mandate. Congressional Republicans simply never did the kind of slow, deliberate crafting of legislation that you would need to do to really assess how workable some of these ideas are.[...]

    When Mar-a-Lago members start exploiting potential funny business in the new tax code, do you think Trump's IRS is going to tighten the screws? I don't. And that means we could be looking at revenue loss that's many hundreds of billions of dollars higher than what a pure economic model would tell you.

    So:

    There are other models out there, like the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, that are considerably less enthusiastic about the growth-boosting effect of debt-financed tax cuts. They say the right number for revenue loss is between $1.9 trillion and $2.2 trillion — and between $900 billion and $1.2 trillion more than JCT thinks.


  3. Good Morning.


  4. Real conservatives are concerned:

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/18/he-would-probably-be-a-dictator-by-now-216113

    ….I think the ascendancy of Trump…reveals something about the Republican grassroots…there is a lot of prejudice, racism, homophobia, all sorts of dark impulses out there, that I think were largely kept cloaked when you had leaders of the party like Mitt Romney and John McCain, who were fine individuals who did not appeal to the dark side of human nature. But Donald Trump is not a fine individual and he appeals to that dark side, and he has shown how much of the support for Republican candidates around the country is based on some of these dark impulses. And frankly, to me, it’s been unnerving. It’s been deeply disturbing as somebody who was a life-long Republican, because what I see happening is that a lot of the criticisms the Democrats have made about Republicans—and which I resisted for years—have actually been vindicated.


  5. And I like this quote from Chris Hayes on Twitter about Trump lying about working and golfing:

    It's trivial in the scheme of things, but the president pretending he's not golfing WHEN EVERYONE CAN SEE HE'S GOLFING is representative of so much.


  6. Foxconn is taking Wisconsin (and Scott Walker) for fools:

    https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/vbyb7j/scott-walkers-big-foxconn-factory-deal-is-going-to-cost-taxpayers-a-fortune

    Foxconn, the Chinese company best known for manufacturing Apple products, was originally slated to receive $3 billion in state subsidies for putting a flat-screen plant there, plus $764 million from the Village of Mount Pleasant and Racine County, in exchange for a $10 billion investment. But the final legislation demands only a $9 billion investment, while the bill for local taxpayers keeps rising.[...]

    All told, Wisconsin Alderman Bob Bauman added up the full cost to taxpayers, in a speech before a Common Council committee, and landed at $4.5 billion, according to Urban Milwaukee (the publication estimated the costs itself at closer to $4.1 billion). That cost, all while Foxconn’s own investment drops and the company lobs new demands at the state, like asking to be considered a foreign trade zone, which would reduce its customs fees on some of the goods it imports for production.

    $4.5B to create potentially 13,000 jobs! That's $346K per job – that doesn't require a lot of business skills. How long will it take to recoup that money especially as Foxconn keeps on making more tax breaks demands! It's a joke….


  7. It's all about WINNING….nothing else matters.


  8. Phil / Airbus 380

    It´s a formidable plane, the massive wings are amazing, interior space and silence when flying are notable.

    The same logic against A380 can be used in the 747 case especially the last extended model.

    Anyway, the massive growth of passengers means every available airfield will be used and each category will keep its niche.

    Have a happy New Year Eve all of you.


  9. StJ…average Joe does not care about anything but himself.  F the greater good.  WINNING, WHINNING, VINNING…Amerika is not what it used to be.


  10. Good morning!

     Nice, quick dip on the Dow back to 24,800 – good place to take 1/2 off if we cross back over and see what kind of bounce we get.   As it's a 50-point drop, 10 is weak and 20 is strong.  Over 24,820, we stop out the other 1/2 and we're done with all but 10 of the max points gained.  

    Big Chart – NYSE over the Must Hold line is very bullish if they keep it.

    LOL StJ – Trump did promise we'd be sick of winning….

    Tax breaks/StJ – This is how this thing is going to cost us $6Tn, not $1.5Tn.

    Death Watch/StJ – No TSLA?

    747/Advill – Yes, the difference is that BA knew this and phased OUT the 747 while AirBus went the other way.  I'm not saying they are bad planes, just like the Tesla X is not a bad car – they are just not economically viable on a wide scale and that, eventually, screws the companies that make them.

    Average Joe/Pharm – It's because we don't teach kids a sense of history and continuity that makes them feel like society and the greater good – have a purpose that can be greater than the wants and desires of individuals.  If we fail to teach our children how to be contributors to society and caretakers to the Planet, then it's our fault when they become – Republicans!  



  11. So, could it be that Facebook, Apple and the 3DS are part of a republican conspiracy?….. ;)


  12. 08:40

    WATT

    Energous target raised to $45.80 at ROTH Capital  (23.70)

    08:40

    WATT

    Energous target raised to $45.80 at ROTH Capital  (23.70)


  13. Grasshopper – "I must confess… Nattering Nat still makes my head pound ????"

    And that's a good thing.  As long as you wake up, take a deep breath and your elbows don't hit wood, its all good in the hood.


  14. :)


  15. Phil/WATT

    So what do you think of a $45 target?


  16. LVVV- posted on this MJ stock earlier this week. All of the CA based MJ stocks are catching bids anticipating CA recreational legalization come 18-Jan. 

    Sold 1/2 of my position to lock in  a very nice profit; will let the balance ride. 

    Running up again this morning. 


  17. PSTAS…..Livewire Ergogenics?……..trading at less then 2 cents, why that one if you don't mind me asking? 


  18. History/Phil – interesting thought – Koreans certainly know their history. One effect is that they're still pissed at Japan over the sex slavery during the Occupation (1905 – 1945), and even further back, the people from Cholla provinces distrust the people from Kyoungsang provinces since that little incident in 660 AD when Silla destroyed Baekje. Koreans certainly do have that collective sense of continuity, all the way back for 4,000 years. There's a temple on a mountain right near my campus where the wooden building is not original but the stone foundation is. There's a date carved into it: the reign of King Seondeok of Silla, about 849 AD.


  19. GNC? If your not going to buy when it's low, when are you going to buy?


  20. Pharmboy – "StJ…average Joe does not care about anything but himself.  F the greater good.  WINNING, WHINNING, VINNING…Amerika is not what it used to be."

    And now your going to make Grasshoppers head pound just a little more….

    You got that straight bucky boy… Amerika = bad thoughts, stinking thinking, idiotic beliefs, whiny words, feeble actions, bad habits and lacking in character. All exemplified by the "leadership" we elect and allow to run our country into the ground on behalf of their special interests.  Sorry to break the bad news or burst the bubble, no winning has been going on, only losing for quite some time now. If your into the whole brevity thing, one word: LOSER

    Winning is a habit. Watch your thoughts, they become your beliefs. Watch your beliefs, they become your words. Watch your words, they become your actions. Watch your actions, they become your habits. Watch your habits, they become your character.  – Vince Lombardi


  21. Nice quote from St. Vince…


  22. GNC/Jabob – Now it's a race to refinance or go BK as they won't get favorable rates with that rating.  I think this will force them to sell China ($500M) or their company-owned stores in the US ($400M) to knock down the debt.  Also though, it's possible a lot of this pressure is the recent bond conversions cashing in to take their losses for this tax year – that's a lot of selling pressure.  

    As a new play for our LTP (not official yet), I'd sell 20 of the 2020 $5 puts for $3.20 ($6,400) to net in for $1.80 ($3,600), worst case.

    Conspiracy/1020 – Just ask Trump, everything is a conspiracy.  

    WATT/Baron – Not slowing down much.  Another of my kids' penny stocks that are doing great – they may never have to actually work at this pace (don't tell them)!  

    What do I think of $45?  If the system works like it says and doesn't cause cancer then sure, that's a fair price but $30 is half off the table for me and stops at $25 now on the rest. 

    LVVV/Pstas – The guy who delivered my breakfast just asked me what I thought about investing in pot stocks – seems like it may be getting overdone already.  People forget it's a weed – as it becomes more legal, a lot of people will simply grow their own.  Hell, even in Rockland, NY, I had a friend who grew pot at the edge of a farm just down the block from me.  He didn't do anything for it other than water it once in a while and it grew all summer and yielded bags and bags of the stuff.  

    I think it will be a nice rally for a while but won't end up living up to expectations.  

    Meanwhile, I thought it was legal in Vegas but I haven't seen any yet.

    Casinos and their hotels forbid any form of cannabis consumption. It’s illegal to toke up or eat a pot brownie on the street or in a park. It’s forbidden, too, if you’re a passenger in a moving car, or partying at a raucous bar, or hiking in nearby Red Rock Canyon. Where can you smoke? Almost nowhere, except private homes. And, so far, cannabis cafes exist just in theory.

    Joe Brezny, a marijuana industry consultant, sees cannabis lounges as the missing piece in the industry.

    History/Snow – Seeing what my kids learn, and don't learn, in school for the past dozen years has been quite an experience.  Our education system is ground zero for where this country is failing on so many levels.  It's hard to have a future if you don't even understand your past.

    Lombardi/Naybob – Now that's a classic!  


  23. Cannabis – Oh, the righteous and hypocrite running respectable gambling halls…..


  24. 1020 – St Vince indeed, they named the trophy after him for a reason. They don't make em like they used to.  June 11th should be a national holiday and September 3rd should be a day of mourning.


  25. Phil – Speaking of covering, winners and winning….  Phil have you made any bets at the book? If you want to watch a game, go to the Westgate (formerly Hilton) Sportsbook, it is the man cave we wish we all had, and say hello to the manager Jeff Sherman.  Don't forget the six star buffet at the Bellagio.  Enjoy and Out.


  26. Cannabis stocks here in Canada are going absolutely nuts.  Up 200%-500% in the last couple of months.  Canadian government is working on a federal legalization bill which is slated to be in place by July 2018.  Cannabis is the new gold rush up here now………….


  27. Ultyguy- LVVV- As I stated in my post earlier this week, this is a speculative crap shoot play on the cannabis industry in general and the CA recreational legalization coming in Jan. I know some folks involved including a sizable investor. The company is focused on infused edibles and plant clones. Pot will be essentially a commodity product and wholesale prices already are beginning to reflect that reality. There is a lot of money sloshing around this business and thus some profit to be had. IMO, it will be niche and value-added players that will reap the benefit. In the mean time, speculative fever abounds so sell peanuts while the circus is in town. 


  28. PSTAS……….thanks.  Missed your post from earlier this week.  Agree with your thoughts in general as seeing the same thing up here in Canada. 


  29. Snipers/1020 – NYC is like that all the time.

    Sports/Naybob – I'm not a big sports bettor but I took the Raiders +10 the other day for $100 and another $100 made betting under 49 points – as those seemed pretty obvious.   I used to love spending Vegas Sundays at the sports book but I'm too into poker now – that's what I do with my free time and not to buffets, can't imagine Bellagio breaks the mold of mediocre.  Not worth the calories with so many excellent restaurants to choose from.

    Federal legalization/Ult – That will be a lot better than the silliness they have in the states.    


  30. A few months ago, I was banging on the door for you guys to get involved with Cannabix Technologies (BLOZF), which is developing and field-testing their new trace-element cannabinoid measurement for detecting driving impairment. Now, after a little more than a 300% gain in the past few weaks, I'd like to rest my case. Ahhh, just another one down the drain…

    https://www.google.com/search?q=blozf&oq=blozf&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60l2j0j69i61j0.1231j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

     


  31. Good call Yo but I still morally object!  

    I have another penny stock suggestion to play with, and it's one to do with the marijuana revolution now taking place across multiple states. Not on the production/distribution side, but on the all-important monitoring side crucial for law enforcement. Presenting the most-likely commercial technology for the measurement of trace-level THC presence for the purposes of assessing driver impairment:

    Cannabix Technologies, Inc. (Ticker: BLOZF)

     

    Phil Submitted on 2017/01/10 at 12:50 pm

    BLOZF/Yo – Kind of goes against my principles to back "the man" in drug-testing.  Interesting idea though.


  32. FTRPR/Albo – looked over the FTRPR prospectus a bit more, and even found a note from FTR website that confirms the post-split conversion for FTRPR will be 1.3333 shares (if price of common is below $75).. and cash looks good to cover dividends, so no apparent 'gotcha's.. i'd do it, (short the common, buy the preferred) — except I am already long FTR shares in the accounts I would want to try this in, and at the moment don't really want to pull those down.. hmm. Thinking about it though.

    Absolutely would do it if didn't want to flat add FTR at these prices. If I didn't like/trust/care about FTR, its a pretty good wrap. Surprised this hasn't been arb'ed out of the preferred.


  33. Now it's /TF lagging to the downside at 1,547.50 so time to short it if you think we'll go weak into the close.  I'd use that line for the stop (super-tight) as it's a 50/50 but with nice downside potential.  

     

  34. Phil, oil keeps getting rejected at 60, any interest in shorting if it gets there again? Almost there now…









  35. Phil – "can't imagine Bellagio breaks the mold of mediocre"

    It is still rated the best buffet in Vegas.  If it is still as good as when I last went, you don't know what you are missing.  Lines to get in were epic, lunch and dinner.  Each station has its own sous chef, and desserts were manned by a patisserie chef. Better than most five star restaurants on the planet. Of course if your only going to eat a small portion, don't waste the time or money, not cheap either.  Out.


  36. China’s leaders fret over debts lurking in shadow banking system


  37. Trump Sends Pointless Attack Email to Supporters


  38. Oil/Jeff – Very tempting but so crazy into the end of the year and thin trading for the next few sessions.  Of course you can play /CL below $60 with very tight stops above to keep a good risk/reward profile…

    Indexes just dribbling into the close – no volume at all.

    For those of you taking tomorrow off – Have a very Happy New Year and, for those of you who will be clocking in tomorrow – Have a Happy New Year too – I will be on early in the morning but taking off around noon, EST.'

    Monday's a day off but then it's back to work on Tuesday, when we being building our 2018 portfolios.


  39. Will the 2018 portfolios be planned for cashing out at end of the year?


  40. The Transformation of the American Farm, in 18 Charts – WSJ


  41. BLOZF / Phil -  Hey, you make these kinds of calls all the time. It's just nice for once to feel like I, too, may actually have the ability to see a long-term play taking shape from its early stages and make a semi-correct call.

    Not like there won't be more evolving technologies to spot, though. Lots of opportunity abounds (assuming no nuclear war… because there's just no put option for that one).


  42. Phil – If you want to bet the bowl games, here is a guide.  Good luck, for entertainment purposes only and Out.


  43. The Human Brain and Sports


  44. Donald Trump posts bizarre tweet, quickly deletes it







  45. Portfolios/Tangled – No,  I think that cashing out each year taught some bad habits to people so this will be another set that I intend to use to demonstrate the value of long-term investing strategies.  


  46. Bellagio/Naybob – Well, if I had more time, I'd try it but no room on this trip.  










  47. The Great Bitcoin Scam


  48. Good morning!

    UBI/Scott – Damn, he did exactly what I said we should do in the Webinar last week!  See, I know what I'm talking about – this is exactly what people used to do in the dot com bubble!   I wish I had no morals – you can make so much money doing things like that and, with Trump in office, there's no enforcement to stop it.

    UBI Blockchain didn’t do an IPO. Instead, in October 2016, it acquired a publicly traded shell company registered in Las Vegas, called “JA Energy.” It then changed the name and ticker symbol to what they’re now.

    Over the six trading days starting on December 11, 2017, its shares soared over 1,100%, from $7.20 to $87 on December 18, as the word “blockchain” in its name and sufficient hype and speculator-idiocy took hold. By December 21, shares had plunged 67% to $29. They closed on Wednesday at $38.50. At this price, it still has a ludicrous market cap of $3.64 billion.

    Once again, our futures are determined to make record highs, despite Europe selling off half a point.  I still like the /YM shorts at 24,850 – they are just over that line now so good entry on a cross below with tight stops above.  

    We're lined up with /ES flying at 2,695, /NQ at 6,465 and /TF also a good short at 1,555.

    Dollar way down at 92.000 – that's a long here.  Gold testing $1,300, /SI $16.925, /CL $60.12, /RB $1.7925, /NGV8 $2.822.