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  1. phil

    KODK/Albo – LOL, that's the way to play it!  

    Well the good news is my average on /TF shorts is now 1,590, the bad news is it's at 1,600 and I have 16 shorts for an $8K loss.  I can't, in good conscience, take a loss on this one – it's too silly.

    Still, everyone is upgrading and there's M&A rumors and BlockChain announcements and such – very hard market to short.

    • November business inventories: +0.4% at $1,895.4B vs. +0.3% consensus and -0.1% prior.
    • Sales +7.9% to $1,420.1B (Y/Y).
    • Inventory/Sales ratio of 1.33 vs. 1.40 (Y/Y).
    • The National Retail Federation reports U.S. retail holiday sales increased 5.5% Y/Y to $692B to top by a wide margin the forecast for a 3.6% to 4.0% gain.
    • Online and other nonstore sales were up 11.5% to $138.4B to account for 20% of the tally.
    • Holiday sales by category (Y/Y): Building materials and supplies stores +8.1%, furniture and home furnishings stores +7.5%, electronics/appliance stores +6.7%, general merchandise stores +4.3%, clothing and accessories stores +2.7%, health and personal care stores +2.2%, sporting goods stores -0.5%.
    • Restaurants, automobile dealers and gasoline stations weren't included in the total referenced by the NRF.
    • National Retail Federation press release
    • Morgan Stanley crunches some numbers on the impact of the cut in the U.S. corporate tax rate to 21% in the U.S. and a minimum 10% international rate.
    • Analyst Dara Mohsenian forecasts a +10% EPS benefit average across the food/beverage and household products industries (ETFs to watch: PBJFTXGIYK).
    • Mohsenian and team think the best positioned names in the sector are e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF) +34% EPS growth upside, Blue Buffalo Pet Products (NASDAQ:BUFF) at +20%, Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) at +16%, Dr Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS) at +14% and Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST) at +14%.
    • Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI) has tagged a new 10-year high today, currently up 3.5% after an upgrade at Deutsche Bank.
    • The firm has boosted its rating to Buy and set a price target of $110, implying near-14% upside form tcurrent pricing.
    • That means Buy sentiment is held by nearly a dozen analysts vs. a handful at Hold.
    • Shares have gained 9.3% over the past six months and 17.9% over the past 12 months.
    • FuelCell Energy (FCEL -1%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $3.50 price target, raised from $2.50, at B. Riley FBR a day after announcing better than expected Q4 results.
    • The firm believes FCEL has turned a corner after a difficult H1 2017 with an improving revenue mix, margin profile and record backlog, and thinks the company should be able to nearly triple its operating portfolio in 2018 to a portfolio of 30-plus MW from 11.2 MW.
    • Riley also thinks FCEL should be able to garner another multi-MW equipment sale and long-term service agreement with a second Korean power producer.
    • The Nordstrom family is expected to rekindle efforts to take the department store chain private, sources tell CNBC.
    • The family group holds a 31.2% block of shares.
    • Some of the same financing hurdles that got in the way on a takeover deal last year are expected to crop up again.
    • Shares of Nordtrom (NYSE:JWN) are up 3.25% to $51.72.
    • Evercore issues a timely upgrade on Coca-Cola (KO +0.2%) as it sees most of the "bad news" baked into the beverage company's share price.
    • Analyst Robert Ottenstein expects "multi-year outperformance" out of Coca-Cola, but posts low odds for an Anheuser-Busch InBev takeover.
    • Evercore's rating on Coca-Cola goes to Outperform from In-line and the new price target is $55.

    • Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDUlaunches Baidu Trust, a blockchain as a service (BaaS) open platform.
    • Trust uses Baidu’s tech to conduct and trace transactions through use cases ranging from digital currency and billing to insurance management financial auditing.
    • The platform touts “openness” and “customizability” with registration open to the public and blockchain nodes available to customize and deploy.
    • Competition: Tencent launched its enterprise-grade BaaS platform last April, but the platform remains in closed beta.  
    • Baidu shares are up 1.2%
    • Previously: Venture capital deals of the week (Jan. 6)
    • GameStop (GME -9.3%) slides after reporting on holiday sales.
    • The company says total global sales for the holiday period increased 10.6% to $2.77B.
    • Comparable store sales increased 11.8%, led by a 13.7% jump in the U.S. Strong demand for the Nintendo Switch and Xbox One X led the way.
    • Worldwide omnichannel sales increased 21.5% Y/Y..
    • New hardware sales increased 38.3%, while sales of new video game software increased 7.3%.
    • GameStop says it now sees full-year EPS of $3.10 to $3.40 vs. $3.34 consensus.
    • GameStop also disclosed that it expects to record non-cash impairment charges in the range of $350M to $400M, primarily related to its Technology Brands business.
    • Source: Press Release

    Iridium sticks up for SpaceX, blames Northrop in satellite loss

    • In the mysterious disappearance of a classified military satellite, SpaceX (Private:SPACE) is getting a defense from one of its biggest commercial satellite customers.
    • Iridium (IRDM +1.4%) CEO Matt Desch says the loss of the satellite (code-named Zuma) is likely the fault of defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC +1.2%).
    • "This is a typical industry smear job on the 'upstart' trying to disrupt the launch industry," he tweeted. "SpaceX didn't have a failure, Northrop Grumman did."
    • He told Bloomberg that while he didn't know for sure what caused the disappearance of the satellite, he speculated a dispenser failed to release it — and that would have been Northrop's responsibility.
    • Previously: SpaceX and Northrop Grumman at center of space mystery (Jan. 09 2018)
    • New concerns have emerged over NASA's plan to routinely ferry astronauts into orbit using private spacecraft, as a report from the agency's top outside safety panel raises red flags about persistent dangers including unconventional rocket fuel systems and anticipated bombardment of spacecraft by tiny meteor fragments.
    • Boeing (BA +1.6%) and SpaceX are developing separate fleets of capsules but neither is likely to meet longstanding safety standards, despite years of testing, re-engineering and high-level government concern about micrometeoroids, according to the report.
    • Boeing has told NASA it expects to launch its first crewed test flight in November, although the date could slip to 2019; shortly before the safety report was issued, NASA revealed that SpaceX’s initial manned flight had been pushed back to December from this coming summer.

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Zero Hedge

Contemplations On America And 4% GDP Growth


Contemplations On America And 4% GDP Growth

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Economica blog,

Economic prognosticators (Jamie Dimon, among them) suggest that 4% GDP growth is likely and that economic good times have returned.  I haven't a clue what they are smoking.  I'll lay out how the US economy has grown ever more reliant on cheap debt to buy ever more intangible services creating a decelerating number of full time jobs among a population that is growing ever more slowly (the basis of a growing consumer base).  And that's ju...

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Phil's Favorites

Breaking Up Tech: Indexes doing what the economy won't


Breaking Up Tech: Indexes doing what the economy won’t

Courtesy of 

Nobody wants to say this but I will.

The technology sector has gotten so big, so pervasive and powerful, that the stock market index creators had to break it up. Because the monopolist powers of these corporations off of the stock market and in the real world have not been checked by natural competitive forces or government intervention.

The big names in tech get bigger and bigger every year, their influence extending into all facets of modern life, no industry left untouched by the effects of this.


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How Neuroscience Can Boost Your Creativity | David Eagleman

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

“All ideas have a genealogy,” says David Eagleman. A writer, neuroscientist, and adjunct professor at Stanford University, he’s definitely clued in to what makes ideas click. He posits that the brain craves something new so much that if you give someone the same thing over and over that after a certain amount of time you’ll begin to see diminished returns in excitement. But sometimes “new” isn’t necessarily new at all. He points out that although the iPhone is a revolutionary product it bears heavy similarity to an invention from IBM… from two decades ago. New ideas tend to be built upon similar ones, David Eagleman says, because “what we’re doing is building on the foundations of what has come before us.”

Read more at ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...

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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Climb Ahead Of Wells Fargo Earnings

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade, ahead of earnings from Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC). Data on retail sales for December and the Consumer Price Index for December will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Data on business inventories for November will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patr... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Why unregulated cryptocurrencies could trigger another financial crisis


Why unregulated cryptocurrencies could trigger another financial crisis

Courtesy of Iwa SalamiUniversity of East London


The price of bitcoin hit $17,000 late last year and – although the cryptocurrency has plunged since then – there are signs that an absence of regulation can hurt investors and trigger the next fin...

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How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...

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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...

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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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