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  1. biodieselchris

    crypto 2018 musings and ramblings:

    On a slow Friday when everything is going up, including UNG for crying out loud ;) I thought I'd post some crypto thoughts. BA came into the year at 296 and its at 335. Uh, yeah. Something's going on.

    Biggest caveat of all time: People have been calling crypto "tulip bulb mania for idiots" going back to 2011 when bitcoin was $5. Just because they have not been right yet doesn't mean they won't be. I know no one wants to hear this, but it is the simple truth.

    In previous comments I had described a theory that the nature of money is changing for a third time in world history (from barter/gold, to fiat / real estate backed nation state currency, to crypto). Each one represents a 30X increase in total money supply. No currency system can support a change in the economy paradigm which forces the deprecation. This is because the currency mechanism is incapable of valuing the newer economic system. For example, in 1929 when the stock market crashed worldwide, gold (a peer-to-peer trust system) became incapable of handling a new manufacturing and real estate economic mechanism based around laws (centralized nation/state governments) that are better served by fiat/gov't-debt based fractional reserve currency mechanisms. Agrarian activities that accounted for 50%+ of the aggregate labor of the population became 3% (with the rise of manufacturing), and with the rise of the Knowledge Economy, the exact same thing, manufacturing dropping from 50%+ for the workforce to 20% or less.

    The nature of everything is changing (unfortunately, including nature). Robust manufacturing cities of yesteryear are have become the ghost towns and heroin infused sad stories of a time long since gone by, and very importantly, irreversibly. Energy production is a race to the bottom as robots produce windmills and solar panels that harvest energy that is free (wind, sun). Jobs are becoming (and accelerating) into knowledge economy focii which are no longer niche, but now mainstream: programming, web development, knowledge transfer, AI, databases, self-driving cars, home cleaning robots, robots that clean robots, and somewhat surprisingly, leisure time management. We have more free time as we work less, and were bored! 

    Crypto, which on 1/1/17 was worth ~$20B is currently worth about ~$0.7T. It is still only ~0.3% of the valuation of gov't fiat currency worldwide ($210T). Even so I think the effects of crypto valuation (hence adoption) is rippling through valuations of the system it will ultimately replace: KODK from 4 to 12, boeing from 296 to 335 (+13%) in 2 weeks?? Obviously these are completely different, KODK is simply getting a crypto-craze pop but with Boeing the effect is much more nuanced. We're bored, we're at peace, we have the world's biggest idiot nightmare of a president and, we really don't care. Trump better get a nobel peace prize because a strong international economy is a peaceful one and right now we have just that. Crypto's the crazy glue that hasn't been applied yet. It's the micro-blogger from argentina that gives self-gardening advice to the free timers that grow food for pleasure (not to be confused with agrarian economy that HAVE to grow food to pay the bills), and receives distributed, micro-income as a result. It's the self-driving car that pays the self-driving gas station (that dishes out electrons as "gas") that gets the free-timer from A to B so they can deliver a powerpoint on how to integrate AI into their hairdressing business. It's Zimbabwe that capitulates to decades of unsuccessful attempts to outfox their own recursive corruption in replicating a gov't run fiat system, and replaces it with an Ethereum gov't smart contract and currency system that cannot be gamed by mafiaso insiders.

    There's no philosophers any more. Everyone wants to know "What exact price will X asset be on Y date." Yeah right. The future is all emotions, no facts. Just deal with it. NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE PRICE WILL BE. But what could the price be and why? OK, so that's interesting. The value of the Knowledge Economy has no valuation because it has no construct for being valued in a nation-state, gov't-fiat system (or a collection thereof, which is our immediate world case scenario). You could look to the derivatives market which I've suggested before. Is that 600T, 1.5Q, 3,4, maybe $5Q. It could be. The above ground gold composition (coincidentally[non?] equal to the physical currency base) is $8-9T. The manufacturing/real-estate economy is $210T (30X). Another 30X is ~$6Q. It's the derivatives that spike up demand for Boeing which pays now all of 2% yield in dividends. Robots don't need to eat, they don't need to get paid 4% on an annuity.

    That means 3-4 orders of magnitude more for crypto from here. You know, with that big caveat of course. There's winners, there's losers, there's big price swings, there's newcomers, there's decades to go. But there it is.





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Zero Hedge

China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

 

China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China bond yields rose ahead of the macro data avalanche tonight (following a leaked upside surprise print for GDP). GDP, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment all beat expectations but Retail Sales missed dramatically - growing at its slowest since Feb 2004.

As a reminder, these numbers are landing amid some renewed concern over the integrity of Chinese data, with a nationwide audit of city and county governments last year finding a slew inflated fiscal revenues.

 

The last couple of months have seen upside surprises for Chinese...



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ValueWalk

How Motivation Works

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In this complimentary webinar, learn about the power of motivation in the workplace from Columbia University Professor of Psychology and Business Tory Higgins, an expert on motivation and decision-making.

]]> Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF

Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

You’ll learn:

- Why “carrots” and “sticks” incentives are not enough to motivate people to do better work
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Phil's Favorites

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

 

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

Courtesy of 

You are all in for a very special treat today. On the heels of last week’s guest post, in which the Unassuming Banker looked at crypto from a traditional IB’s view, I’ve got a new guest post from a friend of mine who is about to give you a perspective on the nascent asset class you’ve not read before. 

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Digital Currencies

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

 

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

Courtesy of 

You are all in for a very special treat today. On the heels of last week’s guest post, in which the Unassuming Banker looked at crypto from a traditional IB’s view, I’ve got a new guest post from a friend of mine who is about to give you a perspective on the nascent asset class you’ve not read before. 

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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Goldman Sachs raised Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) price target from $4.70 to $5.40. Groupon shares closed at $5.03 on Tuesday.
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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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