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Long Term Virtual Portfolio Review

By phil
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We’re up 40% for the year so I’m not going to be too shy about taking a few chances in March as this is, to some extent, a no guts, no glory type of game.

When in doubt, cover, is the usual watchword but I’m going to be rolling to a lot of 1/2 covers and light covers for the weekend as I’m willing to use 10% of my gains as a cover, rather than capping my upside should we break up next week.  Those of you who covered tightly know how annoying it is when your callers get away from you and, if you are behind, then taking additional risks is foolish – this is the kind of thing we can afford to do because we are well ahead and still a lot of cash after rolling down and taking a risk on a bounce last week.

It’s easy, and not too damaging, for me to change my mind and cover – my real risk is on a big Monday drop catching me with my pants down and I will not sleep well over the weekend with this plan so I reserve the right to change my mind if we fall back below 12,450 betwen now and tomorrow’s close:

Description Type Cost Basis Opened Sale Price Closed Days Gain/Loss $ %
AAPL
40 JAN 09 120.00 AAPL CALL (VAAAD) LO $ 131,210.00 1/18/2008 $ 119,600.00   27
$ -11,610.00 -8.8 %
We got soooo lucky on these I’m not going to push it too hard.  Selling 1/2 the March $130s, now $7.25
$ -11,610.00 -8.8 %
AIG
25 JAN 09 45.00 AIG CALL (VAFAI) LO $ 18,835.00 11/2/2007 $ 21,000.00   104
$ 2,165.00 11.5 %
These were taken on faith during the last big dip so I’ll wait a bit, happy to buy more at lower prices. 
$ 2,165.00 11.5 %
AXP
40 JAN 09 45.00 AXP CALL (VAXAI) LO $ 31,610.00 9/4/2007 $ 33,600.00   163
$ 1,990.00 6.3 %
40 FEB 08 50.00 AXP CALL (AXPBJ) SO $ 200.00 2/1/2008 $ 4,590.00   13
$ 4,390.00 95.6 %
1/2 Mar $47.50s, now $2.20.  The phrase that can hurt us is "escalating credit card defaults"
$ 6,380.00 20.1 %
BA
40 JAN 09 80.00 BA CALL (VBOAP) LO $ 40,810.00 9/4/2007 $ 50,000.00   163
$ 9,190.00 22.5 %
40 JAN 09 80.00 BA CALL (VBOAP) LO $ 40,800.00 9/4/2007 $ 50,000.00   163
$ 9,200.00 22.5 %
40 MAR 08 85.00 BA CALL (BACQ) SO $ 13,200.00 2/13/2008 $ 12,790.00   1
$ -410.00 -3.2 %
Going naked as long as $84 holds, covering with 1/2 Mar $85s, now $3.20 if we lose it. 
$ 17,980.00 19.0 %
BIDU
5 JUN 08 280.00 BIDU CALL (BDUFX) LO $ 11,510.00 2/1/2008 $ 18,750.00   13
$ 7,240.00 62.9 %
Selling Feb $300s this morning  and will have to decide next week about whether to cover or hope for a return to the $400s.  If it weren’t just 5 I’d be more conservative but they went up so fast I never filled my position.
$ 7,240.00 62.9 %
BMY
30 JAN 10 20.00 BMY CALL (WBMAD) LO $ 17,500.00 8/21/2007 $ 15,300.00   177
$ -2,200.00 -12.6 %
Totally buying more of these, now $5.20!  Hoping to cover 100% with $25s at $1 as we go higher. 
$ -2,200.00 -12.6 %
BSX
35 JAN 09 12.50 BSX CALL (VSBAV) LO $ 5,785.00 8/27/2007 $ 7,700.00   171
$ 1,915.00 33.1 %
15 JAN 09 12.50 BSX CALL (VSBAV) LO $ 2,475.00 8/27/2007 $ 3,300.00   171
$ 825.00 33.3 %
35 FEB 08 12.50 BSX CALL (BSXBV) SO $ 875.00 1/18/2008 $ 3,315.00   27
$ 2,440.00 73.6 %
I worry they will get bought so I’m not getting a good income but this week I’ll assume they are pinned  at $12.50 and go naked over the weekend.
$ 5,180.00 56.7 %
C
40 JAN 10 25.00 C CALL (WRVAE) LO $ 27,170.00 11/7/2007 $ 25,800.00   99
$ -1,370.00 -5.0 %
40 FEB 08 27.50 C CALL (CBS) SO $ 400.00 2/6/2008 $ 3,990.00   8
$ 3,590.00 90.0 %
I just sold Mar $25 puts naked so I guess I’m stil bullish.  If we make it past the banking comittee with no downturn then I’ll leave naked but if the market goes down I have to get at least $1 for the Mar $27.50s.
$ 2,220.00 8.1 %
CAT
40 JAN 09 60.00 CAT CALL (VKTAL) LO $ 44,930.00 7/13/2007 $ 60,400.00   216
$ 15,470.00 34.4 %
40 FEB 08 70.00 CAT CALL (CATBN) SO $ 7,480.00 2/6/2008 $ 3,790.00   8
$ -3,690.00 -97.4 %
Ouch on those callers!  They jumped too fast on me and I was too paranoid about this great company.  Nothing to do but roll to 1/2 the Mar $70s, roughly even. 
$ 11,780.00 22.5 %
CCJ
10 JAN 09 30.00 CCJ CALL (ZBKAF) LO $ 7,010.00 2/5/2008 $ 8,800.00   9
$ 1,790.00 25.5 %
Love is in the air on this one, wish I bought more!  No cover and I’ll start buying ’10 $40s if we cross $37, where we should safely be in an uptrend.
$ 1,790.00 25.5 %
COH
20 JAN 09 25.00 COH CALL (VZFAE) LO $ 13,960.00 8/29/2007 $ 20,400.00   169
$ 6,440.00 46.1 %
20 FEB 08 32.50 COH CALL (COHBZ) SO $ 800.00 2/1/2008 $ 2,460.00   13
$ 1,660.00 67.5 %
Cutting close to the bone but I think they’ll pin $32.50 and I won’t recover just yet.  This is another one I’m happy to buy more of if they get cheaper.
$ 8,100.00 54.9 %
CY
40 JAN 09 20.00 CY CALL (VSYAD) LO $ 21,410.00 1/18/2008 $ 28,400.00   27
$ 6,990.00 32.6 %
My favorite Semi! I’m adding Jan $25s as a new layer, then I will sell 1/2 Mar $25s for $1.50+ and put a tight stop on the Jan $20s where I will DD the Jan $25s on the dip.
$ 6,990.00 32.6 %
DELL
40 JAN 10 20.00 DELL CALL (WDQAD) LO $ 26,170.00 12/19/2007 $ 19,200.00   57
$ -6,970.00 -26.6 %
NVDA had declining margins and IM (business IT orders) had surprisingly poor guidance so I’m still nervous with DELL.  I will roll to the Jan $17.50s, now $4.75 and DD here if the market holds up but looking to reduce back once I get even on my adjusted basis of about $5.50 at which point I will want to cover.  As a new entry I consider this risky but with a very nice potential upside as I can think of several foreign buyers who would love to own Dell for $60Bn (33% premium).   
$ -6,970.00 -26.6 %
DRYS
20 JAN 10 60.00 DRYS CALL (KOOAL) LO $ 39,010.00 1/29/2008 $ 67,000.00   16
$ 27,990.00 71.8 %
20 FEB 08 75.00 DRYS CALL (DQRBO) SO $ 16,000.00 2/11/2008 $ 8,390.00   3
$ -7,610.00 -90.7 %

These guys hosed me!  At least I’m deep in the money so rolling them to the Mar $80s for now and will consider rolling myself up to 2x the Jan $80s if they keep going up but I think they stop below $90, which will be a great roll point in April. 
$ 20,380.00 37.0 %
GS
10 JAN 09 190.00 GS CALL (VSDAR) LO $ 12,750.00 11/8/2007 $ 25,100.00   98
$ 12,350.00 96.9 %
10 JAN 09 190.00 GS CALL (VSDAR) LO $ 16,760.00 11/8/2007 $ 25,100.00   98
$ 8,340.00 49.8 %
10 FEB 08 195.00 GS CALL (GPYBS) SO $ 100.00 2/5/2008 $ 5,990.00   9
$ 5,890.00 98.3 %
10 FEB 08 195.00 GS CALL (GPYBS) SO $ 100.00 2/5/2008 $ 6,000.00   9
$ 5,900.00 98.3 %
Been too nervous to put money into financials and I’m not rolling down and will fully cover with the Mar $185s, now $8.65 unless these guys drastically improve in the next 48 hours. 
$ 32,480.00 109.3 %
HD
40 AUG 08 25.00 HD CALL (HDHE) LO $ 14,610.00 11/30/2007 $ 19,200.00   76
$ 4,590.00 31.4 %
40 FEB 08 30.00 HD CALL (HDBF) SO $ 400.00 2/1/2008 $ 5,190.00   13
$ 4,790.00 92.3 %
Going with 1/2 cover on Mar $27.50s, now $2.
$ 9,380.00 62.5 %
HOV
60 JAN 09 7.50 HOV CALL (OZWAU) LO $ 16,810.00 11/15/2007 $ 19,800.00   91
$ 2,990.00 17.8 %
40 JAN 09 5.00 HOV CALL (OZWAA) LO $ 11,210.00 12/11/2007 $ 18,800.00   65
$ 7,590.00 67.7 %
60 FEB 08 12.50 HOV CALL (HOVBV) SO $ 300.00 2/1/2008 $ 5,990.00   13
$ 5,690.00 95.0 %
This stock is an ulcer factory!  Covering with 40 Mar $10s at $1.10 
$ 16,270.00 57.5 %
INTC
80 JAN 09 17.50 INTC CALL (VNLAW) LO $ 36,410.00 1/3/2008 $ 40,400.00   42
$ 3,990.00 11.0 %
If the rally is real, so are they, so naked for now.
$ 3,990.00 11.0 %
ISRG
10 APR 08 250.00 ISRG CALL (AXVDJ) LO $ 23,010.00 1/31/2008 $ 65,300.00   14
$ 42,290.00 183.8 %
10 JUL 08 300.00 ISRG CALL (AXVGT) LO $ 21,000.00 1/31/2008 $ 48,300.00   14
$ 27,300.00 130.0 %
20 MAR 08 300.00 ISRG CALL (AXVCT) SO $ 46,400.00 2/1/2008 $ 57,990.00   13
$ 11,590.00 20.0 %
D’oh, I lost faith in my own favorite stock!  Will roll to Mar $320s and I will add Jul $320s and get April off the table with this gain. 
$ 81,180.00 89.8 %
MCD
40 JAN 09 50.00 MCD CALL (VMDAJ) LO $ 35,410.00 1/11/2008 $ 38,000.00   34
$ 2,590.00 7.3 %
40 FEB 08 55.00 MCD CALL (MCDBK) SO $ 7,000.00 1/24/2008 $ 5,390.00   21
$ -1,610.00 -29.9 %
Rolling to Mar $57.50s  
$ 980.00 2.3 %
MDT
20 JAN 09 50.00 MDT CALL (VKDAJ) LO $ 6,010.00 9/6/2007 $ 8,600.00   161
$ 2,590.00 43.1 %
20 FEB 08 47.50 MDT CALL (MDTBW) SO $ 2,700.00 2/6/2008 $ 1,790.00   8
$ -910.00 -50.8 %
Rolling to Mar $50s
$ 1,680.00 19.3 %
MRVL
30 JAN 25.00 MRVL CALL (OZLAE) LO $ 1,060.00 7/27/2007 $ 300.00   202
$ -760.00 -71.7 %
Almost ready to buy the Jan $10s, now $3 but I’d rather pay more when the SOX break higher 
$ -760.00 -71.7 %
NEM
25 JUN 08 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMFJ) LO $ 3,250.00 12/21/2007 $ 11,500.00   55
$ 8,250.00 253.8 %
25 JUN 08 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMFJ) LO $ 3,260.00 12/21/2007 $ 11,500.00   55
$ 8,240.00 252.8 %
25 FEB 08 52.50 NEM CALL (NEMBX) SO $ 250.00 1/24/2008 $ 7,490.00   21
$ 7,240.00 96.7 %
25 FEB 08 52.50 NEM CALL (NEMBX) SO $ 250.00 2/6/2008 $ 2,750.00   8
$ 2,500.00 90.9 %
I expect some consolidation in gold but earnings are 2/21 and expectations are low, which is ridiculous as they are unhedged and gold was 33% higher in Q4 than last year and is up another 15% in Q1 so far.  How that is supposed to translate into flat sales baffles me.  It’s very hard to risk but I’m going naked into earnings unless I find out something that blows my premise or unless I can sell 1/2 the $52.50s for $2.50 or better, now $1.60. 
$ 26,230.00 374.2 %
PEIX
20 JAN 09 5.00 PEIX CALL (OOSAA) LO $ 3,270.00 1/23/2008 $ 3,600.00   22
$ 330.00 10.1 %
I don’t get this, every alt energy is flying but them.  Not worth selling the calls right now.
$ 330.00 10.1 %
PEP
30 JAN 09 70.00 PEP CALL (VPAN) LO $ 18,910.00 2/8/2008 $ 21,000.00   6
$ 2,090.00 11.1 %
Very strange reaction to KO earnings yesterday by the market.  I’m willing to DD if they go lower so naked for now.  200 dma is $70 for a test, 50 dma is $74, where I may sell the $75s to protect gains. 
$ 2,090.00 11.1 %
SBUX
30 JAN 09 17.50 SBUX CALL (VPRAW) LO $ 8,380.00 8/1/2007 $ 10,500.00   197
$ 2,120.00 25.3 %
30 JAN 09 17.50 SBUX CALL (VPRAW) LO $ 11,370.00 8/1/2007 $ 10,500.00   197
$ -870.00 -7.7 %
Sure, NOW they go up, first month I’ve covered in ages!   I will roll to whatever amount of Mar $17.50s covers the cost of the Febs and leave the balance open. 
$ 1,250.00 6.3 %
SHFL
40 JAN 09 15.00 SHFL CALL (ZTHAC) LO $ 1,810.00 9/12/2007 $ 2,000.00   155
$ 190.00 10.5 %
Time for another round of these.   Will offer .50, see if I get a bite.   I love the risk/reward on these as a new play.  Aug $12.50s at .60 are nice too but this is really an all or nothing play.
$ 190.00 10.5 %
STX
80 JAN 09 25.00 STX CALL (VTTAE) LO $ 22,410.00 10/18/2007 $ 21,600.00   119
$ -810.00 -3.6 %
We’ll see how they handle the crossing DMAs at $24, no point selling the March $25s unless I can get $1, then I’ll sell 1/2.
$ -810.00 -3.6 %
THQI
10 JAN 09 20.00 THQI CALL (VZOAD) LO $ 2,810.00 1/31/2008 $ 2,800.00   14
$ -10.00 -0.4 %
10 FEB 08 20.00 THQI CALL (QHIBD) SO $ 150.00 2/6/2008 $ 640.00   8
$ 490.00 76.6 %
Thank you manipulators for pinning these guys, I say they explode next month if the market stays up.
$ 480.00 16.2 %
TXN
20 JAN 09 30.00 TXN CALL (VXTAF) LO $ 4,310.00 12/29/2006 $ 8,400.00   412
$ 4,090.00 94.9 %
20 JAN 09 30.00 TXN CALL (VXTAF) LO $ 9,010.00 10/24/2007 $ 8,400.00   113
$ -610.00 -6.8 %
20 FEB 08 30.00 TXN CALL (TXNBF) SO $ 1,860.00 2/6/2008 $ 1,490.00   8
$ -370.00 -24.8 %
20 FEB 08 30.00 TXN CALL (TXNBF) SO $ 1,860.00 2/6/2008 $ 1,490.00   8
$ -370.00 -24.8 %
Another one that HAS to go up if the rally is real.  This is a $40 stock that gets no respect.  I’m taking the hit and rolling to the Mar $32.50s, now .50. 
$ 2,740.00 16.1 %
UTX
15 JAN 09 75.00 UTX CALL (VXUAO) LO $ 3,010.00 7/13/2007 $ 10,500.00   216
$ 7,490.00 248.8 %
Why did I not buy more of these?  I think they will break out next week so no sale. 
$ 7,490.00 248.8 %
WFR
20 JAN 10 70.00 WFR CALL (ZYGAN) LO $ 2,610.00 4/20/2007 $ 59,600.00   300
$ 56,990.00 2,183.5 %
They are THE supplier for solar semis.  PE is low and the only reason I don’t have more is they make up a signifcant chunk of the virtual portfolio already but I’m going to add 20 ’09 $85s, now $16.40 and sell just 20 Mar $80s for $6.20 because THAT’S A LOT OF MONEY FOR 1 MONTH!  
$ 56,990.00 2,183.5 %
WMT
20 JAN 09 45.00 WMT CALL (VWTAI) LO $ 7,910.00 8/28/2007 $ 17,200.00   170
$ 9,290.00 117.4 %
20 FEB 08 50.00 WMT CALL (WMTBJ) SO $ 2,000.00 2/6/2008 $ 2,190.00   8
$ 190.00 8.7 %
 
$ 9,480.00 95.7 %
Not happy about Japan problem, keeping fully covered with Mar $50s.
$ 321,085.00 36.5 %

 

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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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