Author Archive for Pharmboy

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com





Epizyme – A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is understanding the regulation of these genes that brings the term 'epigenetics.'  In other words, epigenetics does not have to be a nucleotide change in the DNA itself, but rather a functional regulation of the gene's expression.

Genes expression are controlled by many mechanisms, but Epizyme is focused on DNA methylation. DNA methylation is important for the regulation of gene expression, and functions normally to silence genes in genomic imprinting, X-chromosome inactivation, repressing repetative elements, aging, and cancer.  Two specific enzymes, DOT1L & EZH2 are the focus of the Company, and are DNA methylation enzymes (ie, Epizyme!!).  By inhibiting these two enzymes, cancer repressor genes will be turned on, and in conjunction with other chemotherapy agents, cancers may be repressed.

Early on, the Company raised $54M, and then GSK and Eisai signed up and pumped in $26M,  In May 2013, the Company went public for about $15 (5.9M shares at the time were sold), and shot out of the gate with a 50% premium the first day of trading to ~ $23.  The company was a darling.  While the company had two drugs in clinic, the compounds were very early on in clinical trials, but things were looking promising.   In Phase 1 data for their EZH2 inhibitor, tazemetostat, in genetically defined solid tumors of NHL, the overall response rate (ORR) was ~ 56% ((May 2015) which is very good!).  The phase 2 data…
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This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

[...]

The group was up by even more before taking some hits over the past two weeks on negative earnings news from several industry players. But fund managers tell IBD the rebound is here. 

Why? For one, they say, the spate of bad news has already been factored into stock prices. But more than that, they see a climate favoring rejuvenated M&A, hot drugs in the new-product pipeline and pricing power for innovate products.

Bottom line: The positive factors that drove the runup never went away, they say. They just got drowned out by the noise.

“A very key point is that this group is a very high-beta group — particularly the small- to midcap stocks. Since they don’t have sales, they don’t have earnings,” said Tom Vandeventer, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management.

“The history of this group is that elevated macro uncertainty definitely hits (it),” Vandeventer said. “My own opinion is this group trades more on sentiment than on fundamentals during those time periods.”

Full article here >





Endo International plc – Ordinary Shares (ENDP) Collapses Taking Hedge Fund Returns With It

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Endo International plc – Ordinary Shares (ENDP) shares are crashing and when I say crashing I do not mean one percent or two percent or five percent or ten percent but at the time of this writing 38 percent. The biotech company is having a Valeant style crash and like Valeant ENDP is a big hedge fund hotel stock and it is likely killing returns for many, unless there is a big rebound soon.

Endo International plc - Ordinary Shares

Endo International plc – Ordinary Shares

As ZeroHedge notes (parenthesis ours):

The pain, however, is especially acute for a lot of hedge funds, because as Goldman reminds us after the spectacular blow ups of Valeant and Allergan, and recently, the plunge in uber hedge fund hotel AAPL, Endo itself is one of the stocks that has the highest hedge fund concentration in the S&P.

Endo International plc - Ordinary Shares

Endo International plc – Ordinary Shares

Who are these hedge funds? Most of the usual suspects including Visium (which is also having other issues), Viking Global (more pain), Paulson (shocker), Brahman, MSD and of course countless bank prop desks as listed below.

Endo International plc - Ordinary Shares

So if we report next week that the "smart money outflows" have continued for a record 15th week, we will know who the weekly scapegoat is for the latest redemption deluge as panicking hedge funds are forced to liquidate other assets to cover for their massive P&L blow ups in ENDP this morning.

Endo International plc – Ordinary Shares

The sell…
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Cantor Says Relypsa’s Veltassa Metrics Look Favorable

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Positive Data Points For Veltassa Launch

Veltassa metrics look favorable so far, including a low payer rejection rate of ~20 percent, conversion from starter pack to prescriptions between 50 and 60 percent and in-line gross-to-net discount of approximately 25 percent.

Veltassa sales, albeit modest, were ahead of expectations. Veltassa sales came in at $0.6 million, compared to the 1Q16 estimate of $0.25 million. Relypsa had previously reported 1,155 outpatient prescriptions and 374 hospital/institution units sold in the quarter.

“Excluding gross-to-net discounts, sales would have been $0.8 million. Our expectation for 1H:16 has been modest, as we expect 2H:16, and in particular 4Q:16 to create visibility on Veltassa's sales potential,” analyst Mara Goldstein wrote.

Relypsa’s shares have come under pressure because investors may be viewing the debt financing as a major obstacle to a potential takeout of the company, Goldstein commented, while adding, “We continue to like the shares because of our view of the potential of Veltassa and hyperkalemia market overall.” She expects 3Q16 to be an inflection point for Veltassa, and could result in a realignment of valuation.

Latest Ratings for RLYP

Date Firm Action From To
May 2016 BTIG Research Maintains   Buy
May 2016 Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains   Buy
May 2016 Mizuho Securities Downgrades Neutral Underperform

View More Analyst Ratings for RLYP

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Related
BTIG Cuts Veltassa Estimates, Relypsa's Price Target To $35
Mizuho Downgrades Relypsa, Says Near-Term Takeout 'Unlikely'
Relypsa's (RLYP) CEO John Orwin on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript (Seeking Alpha)

Posted-In: Cantor Fitzgerald Mara GoldsteinAnalyst Color Long Ideas Price Target Reiteration Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





PRGO, VRX and the Papa of “Strong Shareholder Orientation”

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. I commented: 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation, a background in science, and an unmatched track record of accomplishments, highlighted by his ability to lead companies through times of transition and drive excellence across commercial, manufacturing and R&D platforms. In addition, fostering an ethical culture and creating opportunities for professional development have always been high priorities for Joe, and we look forward to Joe's arrival at Valeant" (Valeant names Papa CEO after he resigns from Perrigo).

"Reuters reports that Mr. Shareholder Orientation became 'well-known on Wall Street last year when Dublin-based Perrigo rebuffed a $26 billion takeover by Mylan NV, the largest-ever hostile bid decided by a shareholder vote.' Perrigo's market cap has now dropped to around $14.2 billion [now $13.9 billion] — down over 18% today alone -- making Papa look foolish for rejecting that buyout offer."

So after successfully (but not intelligently) fighting a $26 billion hostile takeover bid from Mylan, Perrigo reports disappointing quarterly results and it "slashes its outlook" (Perrigo shares tumble as CEO leaves for Valeant, guidance cut again). The stock has been in free fall and Papa is described as having a "strong shareholder orientation" and an "ethical culture."

While many were congratulating VRX for recruiting Papa to be its CEO, Jim Cramer wrote,

Perrigo's (PRGO) heartbreaking. How could Joe Papa, the man who was so intertwined with Perrigo for so long, the man who came on Mad Money and argued there was so much more value to the company than the price Mylan put on it — some 80 points higher than where it went out —


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Sarepta Plunges 50% After FDA Rejects Key Drug

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Sarepta Plunges 50% After FDA Rejects Key Drug

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

2016 has been a tempestuous year for Serepta shareholders. From over $40 to just $10 and then the miracle ramp from february back to $25 before the writing on the wall ahead of last night's FDA decision and now – following yesterday's monstrous short-squeeze (36% surge), a 50% collapse to $8 – a 4 year low for yet another Biotech darling of old. This morning's collapse comes after the FDA voted that SRPT's muscular dystrophy drug was not effective

As Bloomberg reports,

An FDA advisory panel voted 7-3 with 3 abstentions that Sarepta’s single historically controlled study doesn’t provide substantial evidence that eteplirsen is effective for treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD).

Some panel members raised questions about study design, said more data are needed.

Not a great morning for Stevie Cohen who just upped his stake (seems he did not get the nod this time)…

Any questions, refer to Christopher Marai or Chad Messer (PhD!)…





Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) Tanks As CEO Leaves For Valeant (VRX)

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) Tanks As CEO Leaves For Valeant (VRX)

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) Tanks As CEO Leaves For Valeant (VRX) – it was a decent day to be a VRX shareholder and a bad day to be a PRGO and if your initials are JP it was a really bad day … being shareholders of both companies. As JPMorgan notes: This morning, Perrigo announced the appointment of John Hendrickson (former President) as CEO, replacing Joe Papa who is set to become the CEO of Valeant. The company also provided disappointing preliminary 1Q results and significantly lowered full year 2016 EPS to $8.20-$8.60 (vs. prior range of $9.50-$9.80) due to Rx pricing pressure, continued underperformance of the Branded Consumer business, and lower expectations for new product launches.

Perrigo Company plc CEO leaves for VRX analysts react

RBC

There will be several who focus on recent challenges and the need for someone from the outside to come in and help turn PRGO around. But on the other hand, John Hendrickson has been with PRGO since 1989 and led key operations including VP of Manufacturing to EVP and General Manager of Consumer Health to its current President among others and this should minimize any disruption at a time where operational focus is critical. He also understands the Consumer Health business well which is the highest value part of PRGO’s business. PRGO also mentioned that Omega head Marc Coucke’s Board nomination has been withdrawn by the nominating and governance committee.

Morgan Stanley

New CEO has strong experience at Perrigo Company plc. Mr. John Hendrickson has served as President of PRGO since October 2015, following his prior roles as EVP, Global Operations & Supply Chain (2006 -2015) and the head of US Consumer Healthcare (2003-2006). A 27-year veteran at Perrigo, he joined the company in 1989. With the resignation of current Chairman and CEO Joseph Papa, the role of Chairman will now be separated from the CEO role. The board has elected Independent Director Laurie Brlas as PRGO new Chairman.

Goldman Sachs

PRGO announced the resignation of former CEO Joe Papa and promotion of former President John Hendrickson as new CEO. Mr. Hendrickson has been at PRGO since 1989 in various roles including leading the US Consumer…
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The Michael Pearson Era Is Officially Over: Valeant Appoints Joseph Papa As Chairman And CEO

Reminder: Ilene and Pharmboy are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time.  He has a strong shareholder orientation, a background in science, and an unmatched track record of accomplishments, highlighted by his ability to lead companies through times of transition and drive excellence across commercial, manufacturing and R&D platforms.  In addition, fostering an ethical culture and creating opportunities for professional development have always been high priorities for Joe, and we look forward to Joe's arrival at Valeant" (Valeant names Papa CEO after he resigns from Perrigo).

Reuters reports that Mr. Shareholder Orientation became "well-known on Wall Street last year when Dublin-based Perrigo rebuffed a $26 billion takeover by Mylan NV, the largest-ever hostile bid decided by a shareholder vote." Perrigo's market cap has now dropped to around $14.2 billion — down over 18% today alone -- making Papa look foolish for rejecting that buyout offer.

Papa’s departure comes just months after he successfully beat back a $26 billion hostile takeover bid from Mylan [MYL] spearheading a campaign that ultimately persuaded shareholders to reject Mylan’s bid.

Since then, though, Perrigo has reported disappointing quarterly results and slashed its outlook. (Perrigo shares tumble as CEO leaves for Valeant, guidance cut again)

Papa's recent record at PRGO reveals not only bad judgment but also, more disturbing, a lack of ordinary CEO loyalty. As Jim Cramer writes,

Perrigo's (PRGO) heartbreaking. How could Joe Papa, the man who was so intertwined with Perrigo for so long, the man who came on Mad Money and argued there was so much more value to the company than the price Mylan put on it — some 80 points higher than where it went out — just leave for Valeant (VRX)? How could he leave with a huge shortfall and some weird impairment charge about an acquisition that Papa crowed about, Omega, as a way to get international exposure?

There wasn't a single


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Perrigo: BTFD – Times Two?

Reminder: Ilene is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Update: PRGO may be losing its CEO to Valeant: Valeant’s Latest Acquisition Target: Perrigo’s CEO?. This news is knocking the price down into the low $120s. Paul says he is buying more shares and selling 2018 puts with a strike price of $150. See the screenshot below. Paul sold those three 2018 $150 puts.

Paul writes, "A forced change at the CEO level and PRGO’s depressed share price might induce management to reconsider its refusal to sell at above $200 when Mylan came calling last year. Shareholders are unhappy meaning something is likely being planned to get the stock moving again."

Updated chart:

As originally posted April 20, 2016. 

On June 10, 2015, Paul Price gave us a trade idea on BAX. Baxter Int. (BAX) was trading at around $66/share and scheduled to split off Baxalta (BXLT), its BioScience division, in the ratio of one share of BXLT for each share of BAX. BXLT is now at $40.65 and BAX is at $43.40. 

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. 

If you bought BAX, and held both companies after the split, till today, you'd have about a 27% gain. (Both Phil and Paul also suggested selling puts, see the article for more details.)

Now, for about a month, Paul's been suggesting buying and/or selling puts on Perrigo (PRGO, $129) at TheStreet.com's Real Money Pro (paywall) and Guru Focus. PRGO has been languishing around $128 – 130 and he thinks this area makes a good entry point for a longer term trade. Here are several excerpts from Paul's recent article at Real Money Pro with some updated charts. 

Healthcare products provider Perrigo (PRGO) has a fabulous long-term record. The stock dropped sharply on Feb. 18, 2016, as the firm took a charge in its latest quarter for costs associated with fighting off a hostile takeover attempt from Mylan (MYL). 


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold could blast off, if this resistance cluster holds!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years. When the ratio is heading lower, US$ is weaker than Gold/Gold stronger than US$. When the ratio is heading higher, US$ is stronger than Gold/Gold weaker than the US$

At this time, the ratio in the chart below, has created a Power of the Pattern setup, that is seldom if ever seen.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A rare cluster of resistance is in play for the US$/Gold ratio at (1...



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Zero Hedge

Soft Coup Attempt Imminent? Furious Trump Slams "Secret" CIA Report Russia Helped Him Win

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Overnight the media propaganda wars escalated after the late Friday release of an article by the Washington Post (which recently admitted to promoted fake news itself in an attempt to smear other so-called "fake news" sites) according to which a secret CIA assessment found that Russia sought to tip last month’s U.S. p...



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ValueWalk

How to make 13% on your favorite song

By Sovereign Man. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Did you know that until June 28, 2016, the song “Happy Birthday” was actually copyrighted material?

Yes, I’m serious. And I’m talking about THAT Happy Birthday, as in the song we all sing at birthday parties.

The original melody was written by two sisters, Patty and Mildred Hill, back in 1893. But instead of “Happy Birthday” they called it “Good Morning to All.”

Photo by langll, Pixbay

The Happy Birthday lyr...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At A Party?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, it's "Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo", so we follow up on Second Hand Stink with How to Poop At A Party. 

This hilarious video demonstrates how to control the Shituation when needing to Poopulate at a gathering, in no uncertain terms. 

We hope this recurring bathroom humor theme "shits" well with our readers. So please do relax, drop the cursor below, click and enjoy.

...

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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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