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Phil's Newsletter

Thrilling Thursday – Deal or No Deal?

138593 600 US held hostage cartoonsRepublicans are coming to the White House!  

European markets are treating this like it's a good thing, with thier markets popping 1.5% this morning.  

Our own Futures are up about 1% and, fortunately, we already made some bullish adjustments as I had interpreted yesterday's Fed Minutes as bullish in Our Member Chat (also tweeted out in the afternoon), which led us to cash out some of our bearish winners (TSLA, NFLX).  

We did, however, keep our oil shorts as it looks to me like $101.50 will break after that horrific inventory report that netted a 10 MILLION BARREL BUILD!  As you can see from this Bespoke Chart, a build like this is almost unprecedented, representing 1.5 days of imports at our currently, ridiculously low rate of imports.  

The failure of the NYMEX Trading Cartel to be able to cut off enough of our supply of crude to offset the profound drop in demand is making it very hard to maintain the charade of the artificial shortage of oil.  Like a house of cards – as that narrative begins to crumble – so will the price of oil:

Although they are making good progress, there are still 222,000 FAKE orders for 222,000,000 barrels of oil that, as very obviously illustrated by yesterday's build, no one ACTUALLY wants to have delivered in November.  So  the traders must roll those contracts to December – so they can pretend there is demand there but, there's a problem – December is already stuffed with 322M barrels worth of FAKE orders.  

At the moment, only contracts for January and February of next year are fetching over $100 as this glut of oil shows no signs of abating (and gets worse with every electric car sold and every solar panel installed) and, if you can wait to have your 42-gallon drums of oil delivered until December of 2015, $87.47 is the going rate and, if you believe people will still be using oil at all in 2020 – $79.96 seems like a reasonable price and 779,000 barrels are on order already.  Surely if you believe oil will go over $102 again
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Wednesday – We’re Yellen Like Magellan

Looks like Janet Yellen will be the next Fed Chair.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss (well, maybe a bit more balls than Bernanke has).  I love the timing, does the GOP have the energy to fight this nomination while keeping the Government shut down?  This is going to be a toughie.  

Today is a bounce day for the market but, as you can see from the Big Chart, Republican idiocy is taking it's toll with a MASSIVE drop in the Nasdaq yesterday as well as the Russell which, fortunately, was exactly what we told you to play for on Friday, with the TZA Nov $22/25 bull call spread at $1 along with the SPY Nov $163 puts at $2.  

As of yesterday's close, the TZA spread was already $1.35 (up 35%) and the SPY puts hit $3 (up 50%).  That's pretty good leveraged protection against a 3.2% drop in the RUT (11:1) & a 1.5% drop in the S&P (33:1).  Having good risk/reward profiles and strong upside leverage is the key to good hedge selection (see early morning Member Chat for more conversation on this topic).  

SPY DAILYAs far as the Big Chart, my comment from morning Member Chat was:

Big Chart – Holy Cow, that thing looks ugly!  We'll see what kind of bounce we get today – of course the Dow won't go below previous low without some sort of bounce and it's going to be an easy line to watch (14,750).  Nas has to hold that 50 dma, as does the RUT and those are the technicals into the Fed Minutes (2pm). 

Dave Fry's SPY chart shows us support here, at the 100 dma but we already passed below 5% Rule™ support at 1,670 (also as foretold last Friday) and that means we now have to take back Dow 14,950, S&P 1,670, Nas 3,740, NYSE 9,500 and Russell 1,063 before we're even ready to discuss whether any bounce we get today is anything more than WEAK.  Speaking of weak, our 3-year note auction yesterday SUCKED and we have $21Bn worth
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Don’t Gamble With Your Investments – BE THE HOUSE!

Don't gamble with investments!

One of our major themes at Philstockworld is teaching our Members to BE THE HOUSE – to get on the right side of any transaction and become SELLERS of risk, not buyers of it.  Selling risk premium against stock and option positions allows you to take advantage of the only sure thing in the stock market – ALL premium erodes over time.  Whether the stock you are betting on goes up or down – the risk premium always ends up at zero on expiration day.  

Knowing and UNDERSTANDING this one simple fact gives you a tremendous market advantage over time and that's why Option Monster's John Najarian and I have chosen it to be the topic of our FREE SEMINAR ON TUESDAY.  Use the link to sign up now and we'll tell you much, much more this Tuesday at 6pm EST (5pm Central).  

Speaking of casinos, there are still some seats available for our LIVE, 2-Day Seminar in Las Vegas on November 10th and 11th that we'll be presenting along with Market Tamer – another one of our education partners.  I believe Caesar's rooms are sold out but we still have fantastic rates at Ballys – use the booking code Bally's booking code SBPHI3 (800 358-8777) and mention our conference and Saturday rates are just $125 with $55 on Sunday (other nights available as well).  

We have several trade ideas for our Members that are all well on their way to paying for the seminar, and even the entire trip to Vegas (First Class!) on our bigger trades, using CZR, which has been on a wild ride and will continue to be so at least until the 17th, when they plan a $1.8Bn stock sale of a spin-off Caesars Growth Partners, which will handle the on-line gaming and two casinos in exchange for $1.18Bn kicked back to the parent company (who still control the new Co., of course).  

Tune in to our seminar and we'll discuss those trades, as well as others ways to be the house and let someone else fund your trip to Vegas while you put time and market tides work for you! 

 





Testy Tuesday – One Step Closer to Disaster

 photo post-26206-Yosemite-Sam-keeps-crossing-Bu-vFRB_zps95cf68f2.gifDay 8 of the Economy Held Hostage.  

The bickering continues but a Washington Post/ABC poll released Monday found that while the public's ratings for the President and both parties in Congress remain very negative, disapproval of Republicans has grown in the past week with 70% of Americans now disapproving of how Republicans in Congress are handling budget negotiations, up from 63% last week.  That's up 10% (of 63%) in a week, so we're just a few weeks away from 100% of the country being sick of these guys.  

A Pew Research poll also released Monday found that 38 percent of Americans blame Republicans more for the shutdown, while 30 percent blame Obama, and 19 percent blame both sides.  A third poll by CNN/ORC found that majorities of Americans are angry at everyone involved with the shutdown: Sixty-three percent say they're angry at Republicans, 57 percent say they're angry at Democrats, and 53 percent say they're angry at Obama.

138539 600 Halloween Costumes cartoonsFew Americans on either side of the aisle, however, want to see their party compromise. In the Pew Research poll, 77 percent of Republicans, but just 18 percent of Democrats, said that Obama should agree to a deal that includes changes to his health care law. In contrast, 75 percent of Democrats and only 14 percent of Republicans said that GOP lawmakers should agree to a deal that makes no changes to the health care law.

Meanwhile, all this bickering is quietly pushing our market indexes off a cliff with the Dow already failing the 50 dma at 15,200 and heading down to test the 200 dma at 14,800 (sorry, news from the Future again).  The S&P is riding it's 50 dma at 1,680 but failed it into yesterday's close while the NYSE stopped just above the 9,575 line it needs to hold.  This is, of course, no surprise to any of us devotees of the 5% Rule™, as we cashed out at the top but now we're in the zone (down 5%) where we can't be too sure which way things will go:

We're still a bit over the low re-tests we're looking for at  Dow 14,950, S&P…
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Monday Market Meltdown

What a World, what a World! 

Sometimes, all it takes to end a wicked bull run in the markets is a nice, cold splash of reality and what can be more real than the idiocy of the US Government?  This is  a country where almost 25% of the World's GDP takes place!  When you are pushing historically high forward market multiples, like our current indexes are - you have to BELIEVE things are going to go smoothly in the future – or, in the very least - not get worse.  

Clearly we are already worse and getting "worser" as the the GOP dug in this weekend and came up with a new set of demands with House Speaker John Boehner saying he wouldn't bring up bills to fully reopen the government or raise the debt limit unless Democrats agree to broader talks aimed at trimming the deficit.  "And your little dog too!" said Boehner as he cackled and flew away on his broomstick, leaving 800,000 Emerald City employees without pay for another week (but NOT, technically, unemployed) while millions people in the land of Oz suffer as vital Government Services contine to be withheld.

Isn't that some fantastic doublespeak?  Stephanopoulos (2:34) says to Bohener that Harry Reid is happy to sit down and have a discussion, but not under the threat of a Government shut-down and Boehner (and you can see how excited he gets to have an opening to jam in his zinger) goes: "So, it's my way or the highway, that's what he's saying."  Said the man who is holding the United States hostage for not meeting his party's extra-legal demands.  WHAT A JOKE!  WHAT A JOKER!!!  HOW FRIGGIN' SAD…

138468 600 No Mail Shutdown cartoonsUnfortunately for the GOP, Ronald Reagan taught us how to deal with hostage takers – and they aren't going to like the end game one bit.  Sure, we can expect to have 40 years of bitterness and hatred and certainly there will be many more acts of economic terrorism to come from the GOP, but clearly they cannot be reasoned with and they must be stopped now – none of this wishy, washy negotiating and placating that Carter is so reviled for (by the…
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Don’t Gamble With Your Investments – Be the House!

Don't gamble with investments!

One of our major themes at Philstockworld is teaching our Members to BE THE HOUSE – to get on the right side of any transaction and become SELLERS of risk, not buyers of it.  Selling risk premium against stock and option positions allows you to take advantage of the only sure thing in the stock market – ALL premium erodes over time.  Whether the stock you are betting on goes up or down – the risk premium always ends up at zero on expiration day.  

Knowing and UNDERSTANTING this one simple fact gives you a tremendous market advantage over time and that's why Option Monster's John Najarian and I have chosen it to be the topic of our FREE SEMINAR ON TUESDAY.  Use the link to sign up now and we'll tell you much, much more this Tuesday at 6pm EST (5pm Central).  

Speaking of casinos, there are still some seats available for our LIVE, 2-Day Seminar in Las Vegas on November 10th and 11th that we'll be presenting along with Market Tamer – another one of our education partners.  I believe Caesar's rooms are sold out but we still have fantastic rates at Ballys – use the booking code Bally's booking code SBPHI3 (800 358-8777) and mention our conference and Saturday rates are just $125 with $55 on Sunday (other nights available as well).  

We have several trade ideas for our Members that are all well on their way to paying for the seminar, and even the entire trip to Vegas (First Class!) on our bigger trades, using CZR, which has been on a wild ride and will continue to be so at least until the 17th, when they plan a $1.8Bn stock sale of a spin-off Caesars Growth Partners, which will handle the on-line gaming and two casinos in exchange for $1.18Bn kicked back to the parent company (who still control the new Co., of course).  

Tune in to our seminar and we'll discuss those trades, as well as others ways to be the house and let someone else fund your trip to Vegas while you put time and market tides work for you! 

 





TGIF – Ending the Week With a Whimper

What is holding up the Nasdaq?  

As you can see from the Big Chart, even the Russell is getting realistic and taking a little dip but the Nasdaq keeps chugging along near it's highs.  Of course I told you Wednesday morning that the Nasdaq would be jacked up into the close and we didn't quite make a new high that day but boy did we give it right back yesterday (also as expected).  Still, not too much damage so far – all things considered.  

Those same weekly TZA $21.50 calls that I featured in the morning post came in below our .70 entry target (.64) and closed yesterday at $1.35 (up 92%) after topping out at $1.75 in the afternoon (up 142%).  It's not shameful to go back to the well on these, folks!  

Yesterday morning, in our Member Chat Room, we added disaster hedges for SPY, using Nov $163 puts at $2 and they gained a quick 10% on the day while the TZA Nov $22/25 bull call spread at $1 was still playable at the bell.  Of course our best play of the day was, as it often is, shorting oil at $104 and catching the ride down to $103 for a $1,000 per contract gain.  I posted this for FREE in the morning post and, as you can see from the chart, we had all morning to pick it up – including the spike we expected at the 10:30 natural gas report.  

An enterprising person shorting all 300,767 contracts that I pointed out were open (and FAKE) in the morning could have pocketed a quick $300,767,000 in profits and been back to cash by 2:30.  This is how we like to trade:  Get in, make money, get out!  In fact, Jon Najarian and I will be giving a Web Seminar ("webinar" to the in crowd) on Tuesday at 5 Central Time (that's 6pm in America) and, as it's our first joint seminar and we haven't practiced together yet – we're doing it for FREE if you SIGN UP HERE.  What's our first topic – Why, we're going to teach you to BE THE HOUSE, of course:


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Thursday Folly – Watching Our GDP Fade Away

government shutdown cotdCheck this chart out:

This is just the impact of the first 3 weeks of a Government shut-down as $300M a day is drained out of our economy and the net effect snowballs over time.  By the end of the next 3 weeks, we'd pretty much be moving into negative GDP numbers for Q4.  It's not unprecedented, the last Government shutdown (1995) lasted a month.  

Of course, this chart assumes we don't have any natural disasters (our warning and response centers are closed) health crises (skeleton crews at the CDC) or terror attacks (CIA says kiss your ass goodbye) while America is held hostage by the GOP.  Head Start is closed (which provides day care to working families), the NHI can't treat kids with cancer, food assistance is blocked – it's a Republican paradise actually – what motivation do they have for letting the Government get back to work?  

Oddly enough, the GOP is now claiming they didn't WANT to shut down the Government (a 90% disapproval rating can do that to you), the Democrats MADE them do it.  But here's a show from 9/24 in which they proudly PLAN to shut down the Government.  I don't mean to pick on the crooks, thieves and liars in the GOP in discussing this issue and I promise that as soon as the Democrats do something that's evil or threatens our economy or subverts the Constitution or takes our political process hostage or blatantly lies about things they saild less than 10 days ago – I'll be all over them too!  

138354 600 GOP Self Inflicted Wounds cartoons

It's not me, it's GOP Rep Pete Sessions who clearly stated:

"Insurgency, we understand perhaps a little bit more because of the Taliban and that is that they went about systematically understanding how to disrupt and change a person's entire processes. And these Taliban — I'm not trying to say the Republican Party is the Taliban. No, that's not what we're saying. I'm saying an example of how you go about [sic] is to change a person from their messaging


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Whipsaw Wednesday – Bernanke Bounce at 3pm

SPY 5 MINUTEOh sorry, I'm not supposed to say these things until AFTER they happen (Rule #1 of time travel). 

Well, the cat's out of the bag and we all know Bernanke has a press conference at 3pm and, since the rest of the Government is shut down – there will be much more attention than usual on the Chairman so it's no surprise (or it won't be in 7 hours) that the markets once again popped (will pop) into the close as AAPL breaks (will break) over $500 to lead the Nasdaq to another closing high.  

Already this morning we made a very quick $500 per Futures contract going BULLISH on oil (/CL) at the $101.50 line.  If you want to play along at home and are too cheap to subscribe to our Member Chat, you can still follow us on Twitter (soon to go public and boost our GSVC pick!), where I put up the occasional trade idea – including this mornings $500 in 3 hours trade on oil. 

Yesterday, also for free, right in the morning post, I noted that we were shorting oil at $102.50 and, since we were long on oil this morning at $101.50 – there's another easy $1,000 PER CONTRACT in 24 hours from one of our free trade ideas.  For those who don't play the Futures, we took advantage of the dip in oil yesterday to cash in our USO Nov $40 puts (also mentioned for free in a morning post) at $3.50 per contract, up $1.50 (75%) from our 9/18 entry.  

Those are simple, no margin ways to play the moves but, even if you don't like options, you could have played USO (the oil ETF) down from $39 to $36.50, which is still a nice 6.4% gain in 2 weeks (161% annualized).  This is good stuff folks – even if you don't understand these trades now, don't you think it's worth a little of your time to learn?  

We're focusing on nice, boring trades in Q4 in our Member Chat as it's good to go over the basics – even with our experienced Members who
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Turned Off Tuesday – America’s Closed, Go Home!

138222 600 No Cash Bash cartoonsThose crazy bastards actually did it!  

Kudos to the Republican Party for standing by their principles.  It's too bad for us that their principles are INSANE and destructive to the American way of life – but at least they have conviciton.  In fact, some of them and many of their donors have already been convicted – with luck, more will follow (we're looking at you, Jamie!).  

Shutting down the Government is not an instant thing, it comes in various stages but Stage 1 already sucks for 800,000 Federal Workers that have been immediately furloghed without pay.  One might wonder what kind of monsters would take the paychecks away from 800,000 innocent people whose jobs are to HELP millions of other people get through their day but I'm not going to point any fingers – you can draw your own conclusions.  

138172 600 Why Obama wont negotiate cartoonsAt National Parks, Rangers are advising campers they have 48 hours to vacate but they can't use roads that go across Federal Lands – they're closed too.  The EPA is completely closed (big victory for the GOP and the Kochs there!) as are Veterans Centers and even the Pentagon is at half-staff, so the GOP is also opening up America to a terror attack for which we are now totally unprepared to respond to (and good job announcing it in advance boys!).  

Ironically, the Affordable Care Act, the ones the Republican'ts are trying to shut down, WON'T be shut down because it's already fully funded.  Again, someone is an idiot – but I won't point fingers…  The IRS has to cancel all audits, another victory for the tax-cheating constituency and, in one of the stupidest cuts of all, Members of Congress will begin losing staff – at the same time as they're supposed to be working on a solution to the funding issue!  The National Weather Service is shut down, so there may be a hurricane comming – we just don't know.  We also don't know anything about the economy, as all statistics are on hold – including Friday's critical Payroll Report!  

Of course, not paying 800,000
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Zero Hedge

ROFL NATO!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Amazing Story From Japan

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Here’s something you don’t see very often: For a day and a half this week, the Japanese government’s benchmark 10-year bonds attracted not a single successful private sector bid. At today’s artificially-depressed yields, no one wants this paper — except of course the Bank of Japan, which is buying up the bonds with newly-created yen. As the Gulf Times noted:

Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses ¥200tn The Bank of Japan’s massive purchases of government debt hit a milestone this week, sucking liquidity out of the market to such an extent that the benchmark 10-year bond went untraded for more than a day, the first time in 13 years.

D...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Rally Day Three, Back in the Green for 2014

Courtesy of Doug Short.

When the US market opened, Japan's Nikkei had closed with a massive 3.01% gain and the EURO STOXX 50 was in rally mode, ultimately to log a 1.54% advance. The Federal Reserve had published better-than-forecast March Industrial Production data with a substantial upward revision to the February numbers. The S&P 500 popped at the open and rose in a couple of waves through the day to its 1.05% intraday high at the closing bell. This was the third day of gains and enough to put the index back in the green year-to-date but still 1.51% off its record closing high set ten sessions ago on April 2nd.

The yield on the 10-year note finished at 2.65%, up 1 bp from Friday's close and 5 bps off the 2014 low of 2.60%.

Here is a snapshot of the past five sessions.

Volume for today's advance was above slightly below its 50-day moving average. The c...



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Option Review

Short Term Bearish Options Trade On Las Vegas Sands

A roughly quarter of a million dollar play in the 17Apr’14 expiry $74 strike put options on Las Vegas Sands Corp (Ticker: LVS) caught our eye this morning, as just one full trading session remains in the life of these contracts in this holiday-shortened week. Shares in LVS are up more than 2.0% on the session at $74.90 just before 11:30 am ET and off an earlier session high of $75.44. Like many of the relative outperformers of 2014, shares in LVS have declined substantially since the beginning of March, down around 15% at its current level from a high of $88.28. Recent sessions have been volatile in this and other high-beta names, and perhaps this environment is just what the morning’s put trader is looking for ahead of expiration.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Positive News and Stocks at Bargain Prices

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week’s market performance was nasty again, especially for the Small-cap Growth style/cap, down 4%.  Large-caps faired the best, losing only 2.7%.  That’s ugly and today’s market seemed likely to be uglier today with escalating tensions over the weekend in Ukraine. 

But once again, positive economic trumped the beating of the war drums. Retail Sales jumped up 1.1% over a projected 0.8% and last month’s tepid 0.3%, which was revised up to 0.7%.  While autos led, sales were up solidly overall.  Business inventories were about as expected with a positive tone.  Citigroup (C) handily beat estimates to add to the morning’s surprises.  As a result, the market was positive through most of the day, led by the DJI, up 0.91%, and the S&P 500, up 0.82%.  NASDAQ had a less...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 14th 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Market Shadows

Winning: Defined as Losing Less

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows Excelled – With a 1.36% Weekly Decline

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Our Virtual Value Porfolio took on that role this week as we lost a modest 1.36% of our value while the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped from 2.35% - 3.10%.

We remain bullish despite the shaky end of week sentiment. Our original $100,000 now totals $145,058 including our 2.8% cash reserve.

 ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is the new Stock World Weekly. Please sign in with your user name and password, or sign up for a free trial to Stock World Weekly. Click here. 

Chart by Paul Price.

...

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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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