Phil's Newsletter

TGIF – New Quarter, Same BS in the Markets

(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now
Jump up and shout now
(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now
Hey-hey-a hey
Shooby-doo-wop-do-wop-wop-wop-wop
(Shout) a little bit softer now
(Shout) a little bit louder now

This is one crazy MoFo market – and so much fun to trade!  

Just this morning we had some crazy Gasoline (/RB) Futures trades in our Live Member Chat Room as it plunged from our $1.50 long line (after hitting $1.51) all the way back to $1.47 where we doubled down and now we're out even at $1.485 and hoping for a return to $1.51 for a $1,050 per contract gain to take us into the holiday weekend.  Of course the gain is better if you waited for $1.47 before starting – but we didn't.  

Heading into the holiday (and bear with me as I like to pretend fundamentals still matter):

  • Puerto Rico is missing their $2Bn bond payment today and will go into default, triggering payouts of similar Billions from the bond insurers like (AMBC) and (AGO), so we'll keep an eye on their stocks.  There may be a last minute save but a tough thing to pull off on a Friday before a holiday – you know Congress is already gone…  
  • Gold flew back to $1,340 this morning so you know something is up.  Silver (our old favorite metal) is now $19.30 and yes, we still have SLW in the LTP, so far in the money it's boring now and on track for the full $4,000 gain – up 800% on cash in the LTP and, for the low-margin crowd, the STP has a smaller trade we will cash out here at $26,000 against net $2,400 invested on 10/16 (983%).  You know we love a trade when it's in our Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolio!

  • Now Europe is having a temper tantrum because the UK won't leave.  Yes, they voted to leave but they haven't


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Fake, Flat, Final Thursday of Q2

Oh please!  

Do I really have to pretend it's some kind of coincidence that we have raced back to close the quarter just above where we started it in order not to be perceived as a conspiracy theorist?  It's not a theory when it happens all the time, is it?

And look at the volume, we gained 70 S&P points in two days on less than half the volume we had when we fell.  How does the market go up that much with so much less money coming in?  As I noted yesterday, it's a house of cards that can be easily toppled once today's window-dressing event is over.  Also, bulls should be very concerned that 2,076.50 is the 50-day moving average on the S&P and, if we can't get over that today – it's a technical failure anyway.  

This is not, by the way, sour grapes.  Though we believe the market is heading lower (still looking for 1,850 on the S&P over the summer), we are very much in neutral with our paired long and short-term portfolios.  On Tuesday we noted that our STP was up to $536,627 and our LTP was at $959,373 as of Mondays close at the lows (see post for strategy details).  70 S&P points later, our LTP has jumped to $1,004,321 and the STP as fallen to $510,062 and that's a combined $1,514,383 (up 152%) and that's UP $18,383 in two days (1.2%). 

So we made more money on the way down and we made more money on the way up.  Is it alchemy?  No, it's BALANCE!  We balance our portfolios into uncertain events and, although we have an overall neutral stance, because we are "Being the House - NOT the Gambler", we are still collecting those premiums – no matter which way the market goes.  I don't think you can have a better stress test of our system than we've had in the past few days!  

Learning how to Be the House and how to balance our portfolios allows us to make money in any kind of market conditions and, more importantly, it allows us to TAKE A VACATION.  I went to Florida last Thursday and came back on Tuesday


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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

Go kitty cat, go!  

On the right is the S&P chart and you can see the huge volume levels as we sold off with 553M shares traded on the S&P ETF (SPY) in two down days as the S&P fell from 2,113 on Thursday to 1,991 on Monday (122 points, 5.7%).  Yesterday, we popped back to 2,036, which is 45 points off the low but the volume on SPY was only 158M.

Let's say, for example, that you are re-building a 122-point wall that was knocked down and there were 550 bricks in the wall and you begin to re-build the wall and, as you are 45-points back up (37%), you realize you only used 158 bricks (29%).  Is that wall going to be weaker or stronger than the one that got knocked down?  Would you trust your family to be safe behind that wall?  Would you trust your investments to be safe?  

SPX WEEKLYYes, an 8% difference doesn't seem like a big deal but it's actually 158 out of 203 (37% of 550) that should have been used so we're 45 bricks short, so far, and that's 22.4% short.  So, going back to the market, we are getting to the same overbought levels but now with 22.4% less cash supporting the run than we had before.  That's really not good!  

The market was already a house of cards (as evidenced by our rapid collapse over the UK's vote to leave the EU within the next 2 years – ridiculous!) and now we've removed 22% of the cards yet there are still strong winds blowing in from China, Japan, Brazil, Venezuela (still rioting) and don't even get me started on how we're up again today, rallying over the bodies of 36 dead and 147 injured at the Istanbul Airport.  Is terrorism now a rally signal?  

Turkey is on it's way into the EU as the UK is on the way out but, for now, we can ignore this terror attack, just like we ignored 35 dead and injured on Jan 12th, 49 on the 13th, 7 on the 18th, 4 on the 27th, 99 in February, 329 in March, 160 in April, 67 in May and 384…
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Tuesday: Market Makes Weak Bounces off the Lows – So What?

Watch out for dead cats!  

I think we should at least get to our strong bounce lines (more on that later) but, for the moment, our 5% Rule™ warns us that, after a 5% drop, we EXPECT a 1% bounce (weak) and we're not impressed until we spend a full day above a 2% bounce (strong).  In Europe, where they dropped 10% in two days, +2% is a weak bounce and +4% would be strong – we're only at our weak bounces folks – don't get excited

Friday is the last trading day of the quarter so we can expect a lot of window-dressing and I would be much more concerned about a quick return to our highs – especially on low-volume, pre-market BS like we have today (see morning tweet) than if we grind along at the -5% line and form a serious base we can build off.  On the whole, this wasn't much of a correction – it didn't even trigger our long-term hedges — yet.  

Wednesday's Russell Ultra-Short ETF (TZA) hedge was only $1 yesterday morning but finished the day at $2.05 – up 105% for the day on the 3.3% drop in the Russell and THAT is how we hedge!  30 contracts purchased for $2,550 (0.85/option, $85 per contract) ended the day at $6,300 for a $3,750 (147%) gain but it will be easy come, easy go this morning as much of that is given back and we didn't take them off the table yet.  

A hedge is there to prevent us from losing money on our long positions – it's insurance, not a bet – don't confuse the two!  If the market went lower, the hedge could pay up to $12,450 to offset our losses but, as it was, we haven't really needed the offset so far and our portfolios have weathered the storm with hardly a scratch.  

While our 100% bullish Long-Term Portfolio dropped back to $959,805 (up 92%) yesterday, our Short-Term Portfolio (where the hedges are) blasted up to $536,627 (up 436%) for $1.496M, up almost $900,000 (150%) from our $600,000 start for our paired portfolios.…
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Monday Market Meltdown – Thriving on Chaos

This is the end 
My only friend, the end 

Of our elaborate plans, the end 
Of everything that stands, the end 
No safety or surprise, the end 

Well, we couldn't be happier.

I'm sorry if you're reading this and you are losing money in this downturn – clearly you're not one of our Members as we had a very happy Friday in our Live Member Chat Room talking about all those juicy opportunities as we watched the herd of market gazells panic into the canyon, where we have them completely surrounded.  

We cashed out the last of our risk on June 7th and I discussed it in our morning post on June 8th, while the Dow was hitting 18,000 and everyting still seemed awesome.  My comment at the time was:

That's right, the Dow hit 18,000 and we took the money and ran, closing out over half of our uncovered Long-Term Portfolio positions, pretty much everything that was up 40% or more, getting our CASH!!! off the table just in time to take a 2-week trading vacation ahead of the June 23rd Brexit vote.  It's so much easier to take your money off the table while things are still going up – you get much better prices from all the suckers who are still buying (they are called "bagholders" by market professionals).

If you are one of those bagholders, I am truly sorry but not for my lack of warning you as we had been talking about Brexit and the potential repercussions for a good month before that yet the market kept on rallying but we expected a market correction regardless for solid, FUNDAMENTAL reasons and, as I said at the time:

SOMETHING is going to hit the fan this summer.  After the Brexit vote, even if the UK remains, then we will turn our attention to Brazil with 6 weeks to the Olympics (Aug 5th) that country and their disastrous economy (World's 5th largest) will be in the news constantly – as will fears of the Zika virus, which is bad enough that 150 experts petitioned the World Health Organization to postpone or move the Olympics to avoid a possible global pandemic


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T (Told You So) GIF – Brexit Victory Rocks the Market

Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. He said a new leader will be in place by October.Wheeeeeee – what fun! 

What do you want me to say?  I could not possibly have warned you more, I couldn't possibly have said CASH!!! or "Cashy and Cautious" one more time without sounding like an idiot and I could not have given out more hedging ideas or better shorting lines on the Futures to save you from being "surprised" by the vote by the UK to leave the EU and the market repercussions we're seeing today.  In fact, right in yesterday's morning post I told you:  

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

This morning I called longs on our indexes in a 3:38 am Alert to our Members and we caught a nice move up and I'm not even going to talk about how profitable yesterday's Futures shorting ideas were since it seems like crazy, unrealistic money when you catch a 5% correction and, anyway, if you missed it – it's not like these happen every day, week, month or year.

That's why I was making such a big deal about it – how often are we able to get ourselves ahead of a major market correction?  As I have been saying, the RISK of the market making new highs and us regretting missing a bit of a move higher were/are nothing compared to the REWARD we now have from flipping short and moving to CASH!!!, where we now get to go bargain-hunting on all those stocks people are panicking out of.

We're in no hurry to do anything, however – let the chips fall where they may over the weekend and we'll see how sentiment is running over the weekend.  Our morning longs have already stopped out and, on the whole, the S&P
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O Brexit Day! Callooh! Callay!

"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?

  Come to my arms, my beamish boy!

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'

  He chortled in his joy.

`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves did gyre and gimble in the wabe.  All mimsy were the borogoves, and the mome raths outgrabe.

Yep, that's about how much sense the morning run makes as the UK heads to the polls on Brexit day.  Early exit polls show the Remain camp with a slight lead and our indexes have rocketed back to their highs, where we've taken the opportunity to short them this morning.  My note to our Members in our Live Chat Room was:

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

For our Futures, we're shorting at the 1% lines and expecting at least a small pullback off the EU's 2.5% lines to pull us back a bit.  /NKD is happy because it's the Euro and Pound driving down the Yen, not the Dollar..

It's very easy to play the Futures.  We had a Live Trading Webinar yesterday and we made $475 in 30 minutes just demonstrating it (we were long Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (/RB) Futures at the time, now short oil at $50 with tight stops above).  

Why are we shorting?  Aside from the obvious technical reason, the initial reaction is often an over-reaction and there is NO WAY that they can be certain of the vote since they haven't even begun to count yet.  In fact, per this chart of the UK announcements, we won't hear the first official count until 5pm EST, as the polls don't even close until 10pm in the UK and it won't be until 5am UK (midnight EST) that 75% of the votes are counted…
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Which Way Wednesday – Waiting on Yellen and Brexit

What a boring week so far.  

As you can see from the UK's FTSE chart, we are just squeezing into tomorrow's Brexit decision and it's the same in all the World's markets as we await the decision of British voters whether they will leave the sinking ship that is the European Union or whether they will risk it striking out on their own – a tough call given the very turbulent economic waters the Global Economy is in at the moment

This morning, Credit Suisse (CS) becomes the umpteenth Bankster to issue a dire warning of the potential consequences of a Brexit, predicting 2,000 on the S&P if the Brexit goes through.  Of course, we're only at 2,088 so -4% doesn't seem all that dire to me and their target is 2,150 without the Brexit so +/- 4% puts them right in-line with our Big Chart prediction – and we didn't need no stinkin' Brexit to hit our numbers!  

Speaking of numbers, our Options Opportunity Portfolio exploded, jumping $13,626 (13.6%) this week as our ship came in on TLT (we were short), USO (long), FCX (long), TGT (long), UNG (long), AAPL (long), HOV (long), LL (long), TASR (long) and UCO (long).  While this was going on our hedges (TZA, SQQQ, SJB) did not suffer much damage so it's been all good this week and we are now miles ahead of our goal of making 5% per month as we began this portfolio Aug 8th of last year.  

Of course it's easy come, easy go in the markets but I think we're well-balanced enough to let it ride as we're well-hedged for the Brexit and it doesn't seem too likely it will happen and, if not, we'll be loving our longs – none of which seem too overbought.  UNG, of course, is our Trade of the Year and we made a very heavy play in February, playing for a July high of $8 – that trade alone is going to return $10,000 on a $1,700 bet for an $8,300 profit (488%) since our February 26th entry.  



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Tuesday Testimony – Soros on Brexit, Yellen on the Hill

"Day after day, Head in a cloud
The man of a thousand voices
Talking perfectly loud

"But nobody wants to know him
They can see that he's just a fool
And he never gives an answer" 
- Beatles

As we wait for Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony before Congress, the UK Government is pulling out all the stops for the Remain camp, including well-known currency manipulator, George Soros and well-known ball manipulator, David Beckham.  Many people will analyze Soros' BS so let's concentrate on what a really handsome, rich guy has to say:

I was also privileged to play and live in Madrid, Milan and Paris with teammates from all around Europe and the world. Those great European cities and their passionate fans welcomed me and my family and gave us the opportunity to enjoy their unique and inspiring cultures and people.

We live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong. For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone.

See, Europeans are nice, we should play with them!  Of course, I'm not sure if reminding British Soccer Fans about other European teams is the best way to promote love and brotherhood…  As usual, the Remain camp pushes the "safe" and "comfortable" angle because they have already lost the factual, economic and political arguments.  The Remain campaign is all about fear of the unknown – even though the unknown, in this case, is simply going back to the way things were, pre-EU.

Brexit has been a fun distraction for the past month but it's not the only reason we cashed out many of our long positions on the 8th.  Yellen had spoken that Monday (6th) and the market ran back to the highs and we took our money off the table, avoiding the subsequent drop – very clever in retrospect.  As I noted in
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Manic Monday Market Movement – Brexit Down, Europe Up

A 5% bounce!  

That's what we're seeing in Europs since Thursday's lows as the Brexiteers retreat in the polls and we're having a HUGE rally across the board with a gap up into the open but kind of flat since, which does make me worry that this low-volume Monday action may reverse once again.

But, for now, let's just sit back and enjoy the show.  Remember, this all turned around due to the assassination of a British Member of Parliament, which froze the campaign and reversed the momentum that the Leave camp was making just in time for the Remain crowd to run another huge campaign over the weekend – all coincidental I have been assured and who am I to argue with people who might be arranging political assassinations to further their agenda, right?  

Of course, in the bigger picture (like this weekly chart of the same index), a 5% bounce is what we'd expect after a 1,000-point (27%) drop in European stocks since last summer and, using our 5% Rule™, that's what we call a weak bounce and we're not actually going to be impressed until we see the 3,200 line taken and held for more than a week.  

Until then, we'll keep a close eye on our local indexes, especially the S&P 500, which has to show us the money above 2,100 before we're going to believe this time is actually different.  You can see on the chart below, how often we have been teased up here and, right after the Brexit vote, which won't be final until Friday morning's count, we are heading right into earnings season and already this week we hear from ACN, ADBE, BBBY, BKS,  FDX, KBH, KMX, LEN, LZB, RHT, SONC and WGO – so we'll have an early picture on a few sectors for Q2.

Today's action is mainly the short squeeze that began last Thursday and we're on the wrong side of this as well – as we added hedges last week and cashed out a lot of longs but we cashed out over 2,100 on the S&P, so we're not missing anything as long as we're still below that line and I'm certainly not going to chase any longs with
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Zero Hedge

Trump Properties Around The Globe Just Became Priority Terror Targets, Experts Say

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just this morning a "progressive" watchdog group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), filed a lawsuit in the Southern District of New York alleging that President Trump is violating the constitution by owning business interests around the globe that are receiving payments from foreign governments (we covered it here:  "Ethics Group Will Sue Trump On Monday Over Foreign Government Payments"). 

...

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ValueWalk

George Soros Donated $90 Million to Groups Behind DC Women's March

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

On Saturday, crowds of women in knitted pink “pussy hats” crowded the streets of cities around the country to voice their dissatisfaction with newly-inaugurated Donald Trump. In Washington, D.C., the largest of the marches across the country was even bigger than the inauguration crowd the day prior. Like other recent left-leaning demonstrations, the Women’s March described itself as a grassroots effort coordinated by many local leaders. However, a look at its website shows that the march has numerous ties to groups receiving significant financial support from left-leaning philanthropist George Soros.

George Soros Photo by Norway UN (New York) ...

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Phil's Favorites

Another Australia Home Builder Goes Bust

Courtesy of Mish.

Since June, at lest six home builders in Australia have gone bust. Builton Group is the latest, with 80 Homes in Limbo.

Burswood-based builder Builton Group, which trades under the brands Platinum Homes and Aspireon Homes, seems poised to join the growing list of residential builders in Western Australia gone bust.

WAtoday understands around 80 homebuyers could be impacted, with approximately 50 homes under construction and around 20 to 30 at the pre-start stage.

Calls to its offices on Friday went unanswered – and WAtoday...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Technically

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another day of modest change with little real turn in bullish/bearish outlook.  The Russell 2000 was the only one index to mark a technical change with a net bearish switch in technicals (MACD, Slow Stochastics, On-Balance-Volume).


There wasn't much to add for other indices. The S&P finished with a narrow doji on its 20-day MA. Technicals were little changed.

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

18 people have signed up, but it's not too late to join in!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We n...



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Digital Currencies

As China Slaps Fees On Bitcoin Trades, Japan Monthly Volumes Soar by 8,900%

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

There is one reason why bitcoin quickly became the darling of HFT and various high speed algo traders operating out of China and the rest of the world: domestic transactions were "frictionless", as there were no fees on buys or sells. Until last night, that is, because as China's three largest bitcoin exchanges, BTCC, Huobi and OkCoin, all said in separate statements on their websites late on Sunday, starting Tuesday they will charge traders a flat fee of 0.2% per transaction. This is only the latest fallout from the recent crackdown on Chinese bitcoin exchanges whose activities have drawn increased scrutiny from the centra...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut (Bloomberg)

OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply.

Wall Street stocks set to slip as Trump keeps investors on the back foot (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures tilted south on Monday as global markets grappled with uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Dona...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Post Christmas- Gold Miners & Metals the place to be!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Christmas is now nearly one month ago, how time flies. Ole Santa has been taking a rest and so far over the past month, the S&P 500 has done the same. Not so much for a few other high flying assets!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the first day of trading after the Christmas break, the broad market has been pretty quiet, up .23%. Bonds (TLT) and the Euro (FXE) have made a little bit more than the broad markets.

The Metals Sector has done pretty well since Christmas, as Gold ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings: Last Call for Yahoo? Johnson & Johnson, Alibaba Also Release This Week

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week with a number of big names reporting. Among the Monday releases, YYahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) will report what may be its last quarterly earnings numbers, as its pending acquisition by Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), announced in July 2016, moves toward completion.  

On Tuesday before the opening bell, pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Chinese e-commerce heavyweight ...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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