Phil's Newsletter

Flip Floppin’ Friday – Markets Pull Back from the Abyss

Wheeeeeee – that was fun!  

As the groundhog (who's name is Phil) predicted, we had 6 long weeks of selling to start off 2016 and, as of yesterday's close, we were teetering on the brink of a Global Bear Market after a 20% correction – as you can see from the Bloomberg chart on the right.  

Things are so desperate out there that we find ourselves BEGGING for OPEC to cut production and raise oil prices – how crazy is that?  It's crazy because it's idiotic an it's idiotic because we have become a nation… a planet of impatient idiots who can't bear to endure even a bit of discomfort – even if it's for our own good – if that good is delayed and the discomfort is immediate.  

Sectors rotate, that's a fact.  You can't have every part of an economy winning all of the time.  It's OK for the banks to have a period of low earnings when the rates are low and they can't get a good spread lending to consumers.  It's OK for oil companies to break-even selling $30 oil because the money the consumers would have spent on oil instead goes to the movies or the toy manufacturer or the hotel they can afford on their vacation.  

Avoiding economic pain leads to economic stagnation and THAT is the lesson we should be taking away from Japan's 20-year failed experiment in economic tinkering.  They propped up their economy by making their currency worthless and that may help the Zaibatsu (the Corporate Conglomerate the runs the country) but it's been a complete disaster for the people, who have seen the buying power of their life savings drop by 35% in the last 3 years!  

This week, worries about China and other Asian economies sent investors flying back to the relative stability of the Yen, which seems to have bottomed at 120 to the Dollar or 80 on $XJY.  The problem is (and this is likely to surprise you) that the Yen, though a reserve currency, is less than 4% of the money in the World while Dollars are 63% and Euros are 22%.   That means that when investors diversify more than 4% of their
continue reading





Thrill-Ride Thursday – Markets Collapse as Sweden goes Negative

Really, Sweden?  

Well, it's just an excuse to sell off on a 30-year auction day (happens almost every one) because it panics people into TBills at ridiculously low rates and makes it look like the Fed is doing its job and people really do want to lend the Government money for 30 years at 2.5% rather than do something productive with the money.   Why?  Because if people don't want to by 30-year Treasury Notes at 2.5% then one would have to question our Government's $19,000,000,000,000 debt load which, at 2.5%, costs $475Bn in interest payments alone to sustain and if we were to assume rates climb to 5%, then another $475Bn per year would have to be figured into the budget (without asking the Top 1% or Corporations to contribute, of course!).  

On the other hand, with Sweden now CHARGING 0.5% to put money in the Riksbank, 2.5% on US debt looks like a pretty good deal, doesn't it?  I already sent out an Alert this morning (tweeted too, with the hashtag #CurrencyWars) on what happened and how we're playing the Futures, so I won't rehash all that boring stuff here.

Oil, meanwhile, is down another 4% this morning ($26.25) and that's on me as I told Canada that oil was not going to make a comeback on Money Talk last night – and it was not a happy conversation.  We would like to play the $25 line for a bounce on /CL but we're EXTREMELY concerned about the MASSIVE overhang of FAKE!!! contracts (see Monday's post and here is a good place to say "I told you so!") with 324,000 open orders still remaining in the March contracts (but they did cancel 191,000 fake orders in 3 days, so catching up).  

In fact, since I get a lot of mail from people who can't believe the NYMEX is a complete and utter scam used only to defraud the American people by creating a false demand for oil and driving up prices, let's compare the "open order "demand"" (had to double quote demand as it's such BS) from Monday morning to yesterday's close.  Here's Monday's NYMEX contract strip:

Here's yesterday's…
continue reading





Weak Bounce Wednesday – Dammit Janet, We Need You!

"The Future is ours so let's plan it 

If there's one fool for you then I am it

I've one thing to say, and that's

Dammit Janet, I love you!"

Will Janet Yellen love us back today?  We'll find out if she still has the touch when she gives her semi-annual address to Congress at 10am but already the markets are up 1% in antici—--pation in Futures trading.  

Of course that means that, if you followed yesterday's morning post (subscribe here for pre-market Emailings and LIVE intra-day commentary) you are already making a fortune as our bounce targets were set at:

  • Dow Futures (/YM) long at 15,840, now 16,090 – up $1,250 per contract
  • S&P Futures (/YM) long at 1,850, now 1,870 – up $1,000 per contract
  • Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) long at 3,900, now 4,000 – up $2,000 per contract 
  • Russell Futures (/TF) long at 950, now 972 – up $2,200 per contract 
  • Nikkei Futures (/NKD) long at 15,900, now 16,050 – up $750 per contract

We took the money and ran early this morning in our Live Member Chat Room as I was worried Europe was topping on a 2.5% move up at their open and now we're watching 16,100, 1,870, 4,000, 970 and 16,000 for signs to go back long (just grab the slowest mover when 3 break higher) and we will be keeping very tight stops if any of them fall below.  

While we fully expected an up day today we're not going to be impressed if all we do is manage our weak bounce targets at 16,150, 1,887, 4,050, 1,000 and all the way to 16,640 on /NKD.  Of course that means /NKD is our highest beta mover – risky but fun! 

As you can see, we're re-testing our January lows here and we had a lovely run back to 18,000 into the end of last month that was good for $10,000 per contract off the bottom,
continue reading





Twenty Percent Tuesday – Bull Market Correction Hits the Full Monty

NDX WEEKLYDown and down we go – where we stop, who the Hell knows?  

As you can see from Dave Fry's chart on the right, the Nasdaq is heading to the 20% correction line at 3,760 – back to the lows we tested in August's flash crash and, before that, back in October of 2014.  Both times we quickly recovered and maybe this time is different but, for now, we're expecting a move back up (see yesterday's post) as we bounce off these technical levels.  Of course, expecting a move back up doesn't make us bullish – just bounceish.  

The problem the markets are having at the moment is we're not getting a proper sell-off because, pretty much every day, the HFT algorithms kick in and prop up the markets into the close.  This prevents an all-out panic from sending the market even lower but it also prevents us having one of those big capitulation days where we finally find a floor.  

SPY 5 MINUTEIt's loads of fun if you play the Futures for the quick in and out moves.  Yesterday pre-market, for example, we picked a few longs that worked out into the open, then quickly stopped out at the markets turned lower but, on the EU close, we were able to come back in and again for the usual 2:30 pump job.  As I often say:

We don't care IF the markets are manipulated as long as we understand HOW they are manipulated and are able to place our bets accordingly.  

Oil had a nice $500 per contract run, back to $30.50, twice yesterday and this morning we like the Nikkei (/NKD Futures) at the 16,000 line to play for a bounce back to 16,300, which would pay $1,500 per contract if all goes well.  If we keep tight stops below the 16,000 line – we risk very little against a nice, potential reward.  Other bounce levels we are looking were detailed for our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room as we called the usual "rally" at 3pm:


continue reading





Monday Market Meltdown – Oil Fears Spook Investors (again)

"We should all fear Oilmageddon!" 

That's the word from CitiBank, which is SUPPOSED to be the voice of reason in these markets. When Banksters tell us to get out of something – it's usually time to get in and, this morning, I put out a Trade Alert to our Members (and tweeted here) to take a long on Oil Futures (/CL) at the $30 line (with tight stops below) as well as lines on various indexes I detailed in the Alert.  

Of course, we warned you last week that the market would likely turn back down and I detailed our hedges on the Ultra-Short S&P ETF (SDS) at $22.50 and mentioned we were long on Gold (/YG Futures) at $1,155 and Silver (/SI Futures) at $14.90 and Natural Gas (/NGK6 May Futures) at $2.15 on Thursday. This morning they are at:

  • SDS $23.70 – up 5.3%
  • Gold $1,180 – up $8,000 per contract 
  • Silver $15 – up $1,250 per contract 
  • Natural Gas $2.27 - up $1,200 per contract

Our one loser (so far) was Copper (/HG Futures), which dropped from $2.12 to $2.075 for a loss of $1,125 per contract. Of course stopping out your losers is important with Futures and we'd be happy to get back in either over $2.10 or off the $2.05 line (with tight stops below).

In Friday morning's post we detailed two major hedges for the S&P (SDS) and the Nasdaq (SQQQ) using the Ultra-Shorts and, of course, those are both paying off like gangbusters as Friday was already a bad day and the markets are following through this morning.  We also detailed a trade idea for Barrick Gold (ABX) to leverage the run in gold – also doing fantastically, thank you!  We're hoping for a bounce but really we're using our bullish future bets, pre-market to lock in the tremendous gains of our index hedges at what we THINK might be the bottom again at 1,850 on the S&P.  

Nattering Naybob had a very good summary of the weeks events, reminding our Members yesterday afternoon of my Wednesday warning that we were simply in a "dead cat bounce" and likely to fall…
continue reading





Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?

SPX DAILYWhat a crazy start to 2016!  

Of course, it is no crazier than the 3rd quarter of 2015 so far, when we had our August crash followed by a slow September bounce that led into a mega-rally that closed our year off back at the highs.  At the moment, we are playing with the premise that it's the highs that were wrong – NOT our current 1,900 level on the S&P.  We're not expecting any big rally here – just consolidation

This is nothing new, of course.  Back on December, 2nd, in: "Which Way Wednesday – S&P 2,100 Yet Again," I noted:

The S&P gets to 2,100 and we short /ES Futures at 2,100 (with tight stops above the line) and Russell (/TF) Futures below the 1,200 line and Nikkei (/NKD) Futures below the 20,000 line and then, tomorrow or Friday, I'll tell you how much money we made shorting and you'll say "why do I never catch these great trade ideas" and I'll say it's because you're not patient enough to wait for the pattern to reset itself and just make the obvious play.  

This is the 11th time the S&P has been over 2,100 since May and, so far, it's been like a little money machine for us all year long on the short side.  I know this time may be different and the last 10 times may have been different too, which is why we stop out if we don't get confirmation from the other indexes that things are toppy but, when it works – it's good for $250, $500, $1,000+ PER CONTRACT in the Futures at $50 per point to the downside. 

By the way, I know we've been talking a lot about the Futures lately and that's because our portfolios are mainly in CASH!!!  That means we have plenty on the sidelines to play with and the quick in and out…
continue reading





Thrilling Thursday – Another Webinar, Another $1,000 Profit

That's right, we did it again!

Yesterday's Live Trading Webinar was open to the public (see yesterday's post) and, during the session, we found a trade on the Russell 2000 that made $500 per contract and, into the close of the Webinar, we decided to go long on the Nikkei (/NKD) at 16,985, looking to get back to 17,200 and we NAILED IT into the close for a $1,075 per contract win in just hours!  Futures trading is fun – don't be afraid – check out our Options Opportunity Portfolio and get access to all of our Live Trading Webinars.

Also in yesterday's morning post (and on our Twitter feed) I mentioned the Alert we sent out to our Members in the morning, noting the following long plays in the Futures:

  • 1,900 on the S&P (/ES), closed 1,907 – up $350 per contract 
  • 16,100 on the Dow (/YM), closed at 16,320 – up $1,100 per contract 
  • 0.975 on Gasoline (/RB), closed at $1.045 – up $2,940 per contract 
  • $30 on Oil (/CL), closed at $32.50 – up $2,500 per contract

Yes the futures are risky (and we were down before we were up in the Webinar) but they give you a tremendous advantage in volatile markets as you can use them to better balance your portfolio before the market opens or after it closes – rather than sitting and sweating while you wait for the opening bell to trade.  Since we practice a generally Balanced Portfolio Approach at Philstockworld, we mostly play the Futures for fun but the experience we get while having fun really comes in handy when there is an after-hours surprise in the market.  You've probably seen this commercial recently:

And no, it doesn't matter who your broker is (most of us use TD's Think or Swim) but this commercial hits it right on the head – being able to trade the Futures gives you a tremendous edge on the market.  Let's say you only used one of our trade ideas and made just $1,000 yesterday on a single contract.  What percentage of your portfolio is that?  How…
continue reading





Which Way Wednesday – Groundhog Day Again!

SPX DAILYI was almost going to just put up my Jan 13th post again.  

That one was titled "Weak Bounce Wednesday" and we opened that day at S&P 1,923 after bouncing almost exactly as high as we had predicted in Monday's (Jan 11) "Meaningless Monday Market Movement."  This is why "Groundhog Day" is one of my favorite movies of all time.  In that movie, Bill Murray plays Phil (great name), a weatherman, who gets trapped living the same day over and over again – yet he's the only one who is aware of it – for everyone else, they've never seen that day before.  

That sums up my job very nicely.  All day long I talk to people and reporters who are constantly surprised by things I have seen happen over and over and over again.  Each time, they have no idea what will happen next and, while there certainly are variations from time to time – I'm able to predict the outcomes with a pretty good degree of accuracy, not because I'm smart – but simply because I'm paying attention.  And I'm not the only one – this is from Dave Fry this morning:

Like Bill Murray it feels like a bad Groundhog’s Day again as markets moved right back down in volatile, what I believe, is a descending spiral.

For bulls, just when you think markets are ready for a big time rally, (nearly 400 points higher just last Friday), bears moved back in taking charge once again. I further projected on just last week Thursday we could expect a countertrend rally in the S&P from 1902 to 1956. We hit 1940 on Friday and have fallen once again to close at 1904.

Paying attention to repeating patterns does more than make our Members look smart – it makes them lots of MONEY because we're able to place our bets accordingly.  

Like yesterday –…
continue reading





Oil Falls Back to $30 and BP Leads Europe Lower

Ted Cruz won Iowa.  

That is the scariest thing I have to say this morning.  The Koch-powered Conservative is the GOP's leading Climate denier and, if he becomes President of the United States, you can pretty much guarantee he'll put a stop to the agreements we made in Paris last year to work with the rest of the World to help stop Global Warming – especially as it's projected to be a $12Tn effort over 25 years on our part.  

Of course, many (almost all) scientists would argue that a failure to do this will lead to the extinction of the Human Race but that's considered a win for Cruz's Father's ministry "Purifying Fire International" who are anxious to finally get to the end of days they've all been praying for.  Don't take my word for it – listen to his Dad

Anyway, enough about Cruz, hopefully this is a one-off and the World will not end because Americans make the worst possible choice come November.  Meanwhile, it may in fact be the end of days for oil, as it's back to $30 after an aborted (sorry Ted) run at $35 just last week.  Low oil prices hit BP so hard that profits are down 90% from last year and, unadjusted, BP is taking a $6.5Bn loss but officially a 2015 net profit of $196M, down from $2.2Bn last year.  In good news for oil prices, however, the World's 4th largest oil company is cutting production in 2016.  

So, despite oil being down 2.5%, we think $30 will hold and you can refer back to our UCO/USO bullish spread (see last week's post) and we're also liking Natural Gas (/NG Futures) again as we dip back to $2.00.  We are not, however, playing the front-month March contract (/NGH6) but the /NGK6 May contract, which is trading a bit higher at $2.10 this morning. 

Our logic on Natural Gas (and UNG is the ETF you can play at $7.50, which is our Trade of the Year for 2016 - beating IBM at the last minute!).  In our Live Trading Webinar on 12/16, we had called a play on the April Natural Gas
continue reading





Monday Mandarin Manufacturing Meltdown

Embedded image permalinkOh no, there goes China again!  

This weekend it was more horrific PMI numbers out of China as January manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 3 years, suggesting the world's second largest economy is off to a weak start in 2016 (and adding to the case for near-term stimulus).  The official Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 49.4 in January, compared with the previous month's reading of 49.7, below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. It is the weakest index reading since Aug, 2012 and below the median 49.6 forecast from a Reuters poll of leading economorons.

The PMI marks the sixth consecutive month of factory activity contraction, highlighting a manufacturing complex under severe pressure from falling prices and overcapacity in key sectors including steel and energy.  "The electricity production remained sluggish and the crude steel output continued the weak trend in January, reflecting an ongoing deleveraging process in the industrial sectors," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank.  "In the meantime, China has started an aggressive capacity reduction in many sectors, which could add downward pressure on the bulk commodity prices over time."

 China's slowdown has sent Korea's eports plunging at the fastest rate since Aug, 2009, down 18.5% in January and now the 13th month in a row of declining exports.  Imports fell 20.1% – spreading the contagion further to other trading partners.  South Korean data are viewed as a proxy for the global trade picturebecause of the Asian nation’s heavy dependence on imports of raw materials and exports of goods such as cars and phones. The Korean data also give a reading of the health of the Chinese economy because around a quarter of South Korea’s exports are sent to China.  

All this bad news out of Asia (Japan's PMI also negative) has sent oil crashing back to Earth, back to $32.23 this morning after topping out at $34.50 on Friday.  As I said to our Members in Friday's Live Chat Room (2:44):

I think oil is still up in hopes that the false rumor re. a production cut is going to be somehow supported over the weekend and,


continue reading





 
 
 

Chart School

Moving Averages: May Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Valid until the market close on June 30, 2016

The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 1.53% which follows a gain of 0.27% last month. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and all five Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "invested". In the table, monthly closes that are within 2% of a signal are highlighted in yellow.

The Ivy Portfolio

The above table shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. We've also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strat...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Alan Greenspan: "We're Running To A State Of Disaster"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Back in March, the former Fed chairman said that we're in trouble because "productivity is dead in the water, and real capital investment is way below average because business people are very uncertain about the future." Greenspan went on to add that entitlement programs are crowding out capital investment, and thus crowding out productivity."

...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Banks Should Get Down on Their Knees and Pray for Regulation

 

Banks Should Get Down on Their Knees and Pray for Regulation

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker

Everyone’s talking about this Wall Street Journal article that covers the regulatory flood. The banks brought it on themselves because of their actions before and after the Great Financial Crisis. And now they’ve got to live in the world they’ve created…

The 2010 Dodd-Frank law … is one of the mo...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. oil prices rise on start of summer driving season (Business Insider)

U.S. oil prices were lifted early on Tuesday by the start of the peak demand summer driving season, although international fuel markets were weighed down by rising output in the Middle East, which mostly serves Asian customers.

Three reasons why the S&P 500 is primed and ready for big gains (Market Watch)

Get ready for “flaming June.”

...



more from Paul

ValueWalk

Jim Collins Interviews Jorge Paulo Lemann of 3G Capital (And Gisele Bundchen)

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Jim Collins Interviews Jorge Paulo Lemann of 3G Capital  (And Gisele Bundchen) but for only about two minutes

Big H/T Value Investing World

Also see ...



more from ValueWalk

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 30th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



more from Bitcoin

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>