by Phil Davis - April 22nd, 2014 8:06 am
Check out this chart from David Fry:
65M was the total volume for SPY for the day and, as you can see from the volume bars, almost all of that came early in the morning, followed by a dead afternoon in which we drifted higher on NO volume at all. Nothing has changed, it's the same manipulated BS we had at the beginning of the month – only now at much lower volumes.
How can we change our minds about stocks when the data we're looking at is statistically insignificant? What is statistically significant is the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index – one of the most reliable indicators of GDP – and it's pointing down yet again. The CFNAI is a composite of 85 monthly indicators measuring all sorts of things like Manufacturing, Sales, Inventories, Prices, Shipping, etc. and, this month (March) 34 of them were negative. Sure that means 51 were positive but the net was 0 and AGAIN, I ask you, is that the kind of data that we should be paying all-time high prices for stocks against?
I'm not saying the economy sucks. In fact, it's fantastic for the top 10%. I'm just saying that it's NOT the kind of broad-based recovery that makes me want to place long-term bets at 20+ multiples of earning because, as we discovered in 2008, those earnings projection can quickly turn out to be nothing but BS and the very last people to see it coming are the CEOs and CFOs who make those projections.
As earnings reports are coming in, we're getting mixed signals. 85 of the S&P 500 have reported so far and 67% (57) have beaten on the revenue side, which sounds nice but it's below the 73% average and usually 58% beat on revenues (not that great, actually) but, so far, just 51% are over the line. Half, that's half. That means half the companies reporting are FAILING to make earnings – even with lowered expectations (the weather, late Easter, Bitcoin, Ukraine, Flight 370 – pick an excuse).
by Phil Davis - April 21st, 2014 7:52 am
This has been the flow of Bloomberg's "Smart Money Flow Indicator" and, as Zero Hedge wonders: Just who is soaking up what the smart money is selling? Company Buybacks, Johnny 5 (tradebots) or the Greater-Fool Retail Investors?
What is clear is the institutional investors, the so-called "smart money" are dumping shares like there's a crash – only there isn't any apparent crash – the indexes are pretty much holding on fine, making their losses back on low-volume days while steadily selling off on higher-volume days, which needs to a massive net outflow of "smart money" replaced by a steady supply of "dumb money".
Of course, there's no money dumber than the Fed, who buy and buy and buy and buy and then, when it's hard to remember a time when they weren't buying – they buy some more.
Rather than show you the Fed's $4Tn balance sheet again – let's take a look at where the money went. Oh, there it is – right in the banks balance sheets! The Fed has essentially borrowed money, on your behalf, and GIVEN it to their member banks at 0.25% interest (ie. FREE) who CLEARLY are not lending it out.
And why should they? They can simply turn around and buy TBills by leveraging their cash 10x (banks can do that) and collect 3% for 10 years X 10 = 30% while the Fed charges them 0.25% for a 29.75% annual profit on every dollar. Why then, should they lend it to you? Why should they offer you interest on your deposits when the Fed gives them all the money they want for free?
Banks USED to perform an important economic function that would save and protect your hard-earned money and your money was then lent out to other hard-working people so they could buy homes and cars and invest in businesses. Not any more, now banks only lend to Corporations and people with pristine credit (auto companies have to do their own lending), although they do let you buy things…
by Phil Davis - April 17th, 2014 8:42 am
What a turnaround!
We knew Yellen's speech yesterday would boost the markets but – WOW! We didn't have to hear what she actually had to say, of course, the Futures popped the S&P up to 1,855 and we finished the day at 1,862, well over our strong bounce target for the week (see Monday's post for details).
Since the week is ending today, all they have to do is hold 1,850, along with Dow 16,240, Nas 4,150 (not there yet), NYSE 10,430 and Russell 1,145 (oops) and we're back in bullish business.
So, we have a couple of laggers – is that the end of the World? Maybe – and, since it's a holiday weekend, I think we're going to hold off on our BUYBUYBUYing until we get the all clear next week. Meanwhile, it's not like we're sitting on our hands. In our Live Member Chat Room we like to do earnings plays and yesterday we picked SNDK and went with the May $80 calls at $1.55 with SNDK at $76.19. Earnings were great and, pre-market, SNDK is heading for $81, which should give us at least a double for our day's work.
Even more recently, at 5:46am, I sent out a note to buy Silver Futures (/SI) at $19.51 and I just (7:46) put out another note to close it out at $19.70. Why take a 19-cent gain off the table? Because Silver Futures pay us $50 per penny, per contract so 19 cents is $950 per contract in two hours – that's good money!
I Tweeted out that trade as well so make sure you follow me HERE if you want to know about more trades like that or JOIN OUR LIVE MEMBER CHAT ROOM and never miss another opportunity, like the one I also posted this morning for Gasoline Futures (/RB)!
In yesterday's morning post, I called for shorting oil at the $104.75 line into inventories (10:30). Of course, I made that call at 8:11 am, so forgive me for missing by a dime but we hit our shorting target (with a spike almost to $105) and then got…
by Phil Davis - April 16th, 2014 11:21 am
Thank God for people like Sanders – there's so few of them left:
“Will you sweep away the righteous with the wicked? What if there are ten righteous people in the city? Will you really sweep it away and not spare the place for the sake of the ten righteous people in it?" – Genesis 18:22
by Phil Davis - April 16th, 2014 8:11 am
Wow, what a fun day yesterday was!
As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we went up in the Futures 30 S&P points and then we fell from the open 30 S&P points and then we recovered into the close 30 S&P points. This is what we call a "Bugs Bunny Market," where Bugs throws a switch and people stamped in and out of the theater (5:00 on this video) - and it's not usually a good thing.
In fact, that's the action we saw back on 2/28, when I was warning people to get to cash and, in fact, I tweeted out a similar comment (with the same video link) and our trade idea for playing the next 45 days was:
TZA/Craig – Well, the April $14/17 is still doable at $1.30 and you can sell the $15 puts for .88 for net .42 now.
Even with the Russell's bounce off our 1,100 goal yesterday, TZA is still at $17.65 and the April spread, which expires tomorrow, is net $1.90 – up a very nice 350% in 45 days (you can follow me on Twitter here, but I rarely tweet our Member Trade Ideas – for those, you have to sign up HERE).
We actually flipped long on the Russell during our Live Trading Webcast at 1pm yesterday, catching it pretty much on the button and I showed people, LIVE, how to make hundreds of dollars in just 15 minutes trading the Futures (replay available here).
In yesterday's post, I reminded you we were shorting oil at $104 and we caught a $500 per contract move back to $103.50 but then (also live in the Webcast), we decided to wait for $105ish to re-short today (/CL Futures). This morning, I posted early (6:22) to our Members that we had our shorting opportunity at $104.95 and already (8:06) we're back to $104.65 and that's good for $300 per contract after a hard morning's work – plenty of money for breakfast!
by Phil Davis - April 15th, 2014 8:20 am
But, fortunately, it's still not time to pay the piper for all that money we're borrowing to goose the economy. Well, goose may be too strong a term as 5 years and $5 Trillion Dollars into this mess, we're really only flatlined the GDP to where it was back in 2007.
Did you get your $5,000,000,000,000 worth? We know the top 0.01% sure did. We've made the World's Billionaires alone $1.4Tn richer than they were in 2009 – and it only cost 140M working Americans $37,714 each! That's how much $5Tn in additional debt has cost us – on top of the $2.5Tn we piled on fighting Iraq or Afghanistan for whatever reason it was we had to invade those guys.
Don't worry, it's all fair, each one of those Billionaires also owes the same $37,714 as you do – they feel your pain! Multiply that by 3.5 and that's your share of the National Debt, which is still growing by $500Bn a year, although that's 1/2 of how fast it was growing under Bush II. And, of course, we're not even counting the Fed's $4Tn of additional debt – because we still get to pretend that will all work itself out in the end.
Just like CHINA!!! China's Central Bank has been trying to drain a little liquidity out of the system and it looks like that's already dropped GDP growth for the quarter down to 1.5%, nowhere near the 7.5% annual levels the Government was hoping for. That led Chinese stocks to fall about 1.5% this morning, led down by Financial and Commodity stocks. That's the reaction to M2 (money supply) GROWING by 12.1% instead of the 13.3% it was growing a month earlier and despite $169Bn in loan growth.
“Investors are a bit worried because M2 is quite low,” Zhang Haidong, an analyst at Tebon Securities Co., said by phone in Shanghai. “New loans may be better than expected by a little, but it’s still not considered good data;
by Phil Davis - April 14th, 2014 8:34 am
After a very ugly week, what's in store next?
This is one very ugly chart with an almost 10% drop on the Nasdaq and the Russell but that's GOOD news as it's about where we expect the Central Banksters to step in and do something, before things turn more ugly.
That's why we weren't pressing our bearish bets last week and we took our very aggressive TZA and XRT bets off the table in our Short-Term Portfolio and our $25,000 Portfolio because, with the indexes down this far, we expect at least a weak bounce to start the week – the question is – what happens after that?
Very simply, per our 5% Rule™, when the market drops 5%, we expect a 1% retrace and, in the case of the Nasdaq and the Russell, we expect a 2% retrace for a "weak bounce." Also, as you can see on our Big Chart, we have some serious support on the Dow at our "Must Hold" lijne at 16,000. There's pretty much no way it can fail that without a bounce.
The Dow fell from 16,600 to 16,000 and that's only 3.6% but it's a strong support line but, as noted by Dave Fry in his Dow Chart, the real support comes at the 200 dma, at 15,750, and that's 5.1% today but that 200 dma will rise while it waits for the Dow so we can still expect a test at 15,800, which should be 5% by that time, assuming our weak bounce fails this week.
On our other indexes, we'll be looking for:
- Dow 16,600 to 16,000 is 600 points (3.6%) and we're looking for a 120-point weak bounce to 16,120 and a 240-point strong bounce to 16,240 before we believe any sort of "rally."
- S&P 1,900 to 1,815 is 85 points down (4.5%) so 17 points to 1,832 is weak and 17 more to 1,849 is strong but let's call it 1,850 before we're impressed.
- Nasdaq failed 4,375 and down to 4,000 (8.5%), also a strong technical support line that held up in late Jan/early Feb as well. Keep in mind, when an index is going to fall 10%,
by Phil Davis - April 11th, 2014 8:49 am
Wheeeeee – down we go again!
I hate to say I told you so but — no, actually I'm loving this one… In fact, JPM specifically was our earnings short of the week – from our Live Chat Room on Monday morning, I said to our Members:
Earnings/QC – I think I like a bearish play on JPM best. STZ also tempting for a short but, with JPM, we already liked them short on the Dow list. With JPM at $59.60, I like selling the May $57.50 calls for $2.90 and buying the Jan $57.50/62.50 bull call spread at $2.40 to cover for a net .50 credit. If all goes well, JPM goes down and the short May calls expire worthless and whatever is left on the spread is bonus money (plus the credit).
This isn't that complicated folks, we just read the news and make a play. The rest is just picking the right option strategy and allocating appropriate amounts of cash – this is what we teach people how to do every day at PSW (you can join us HERE). That trade will be up more than 100% for the week this morning as JPM plunges to about $55. Yet another example of all the fun things we can do with our CASH!!!
And you KNOW we shorted Oil Futures (/CL) at $103.50 – I told you that in yesterday morning's post. We already hit $103 overnight (up $500 per contract) and we re-loaded this morning at $103.40 and now we're heading back to $103 yet again. Hopefully this is the big one and we get a ride back to $102 – which would be up $1,500 per contract.
I mentioned we were back to bearish in the morning post yesterday and, at 11:14, we added an aggressive SDS (ultra-short S&P) May $27/30 bull call spread at $1.15, buying 20 of those for $2,300, offset with the sale of a single ISRG 2016 $350 put at $31 ($3,100) for a net $800 credit. In yesterday's sell-off alone, the bull call spread finished at $1.65 ($3,300)…
by Phil Davis - April 10th, 2014 8:30 am
Wow, what a recovery!
I mean we expected a bounce yesterday on Monday, when we pointed out that there were 3 Fed Doves in a row speaking after the release of the minutes but – WOW! – that was pretty extreme. Still, it only got us right to the 1,160 weak bounce we were looking for on Monday. That's right, 1,160 on the dot was predicted Monday Morning, before the market opened, as the bounce line for the Russell.
As I often remind our Members, I can only tell you what's going to happen and suggest ways to profit from it – what you do with that information is entirely up to you!
What we did with that information on Monday, at 3pm in our Live Member Chat Room, was the following:
That's why I still like buying the f'ing dips on the Futures – worth losing a few while hoping to catch a nice bounce. Now our lines are 16,200 (/YM), 1,835 (/ES), 3,500 (/NQ) and 1,130 (/TF) – any of which can be played bullish if 2 are over the lines.
Needless to say, those lines worked out very well as we're now at 16,330, 1,861, 3,583 and 1,152 and Tuesday Morning's Alert to Members gave us an even better re-entries on the Dow (16,100) and a 230-point bump in the Dow is good for $1,150 per contract!
This is why we LIKE having CASH!!! on the sidelines: We catch a nice down move, cash back out – catch a nice up move, cash back out, etc. and, every night, we go to sleep not at all worried about what's happening. It's not only relaxing, and profitable – it's FUN!
I put out a News Alert this morning (and you can now read those if you follow our Facebook Page, which is also where Members should go if the site ever crashes, so make sure you "Like" it) where we called for a "conviction short" on oil at $103.50…
by Phil Davis - April 9th, 2014 8:50 am
Wheeee – what a ride!
As nasty as our Big Chart looks at the moment, we only have two Vomiting Cobra Patterns (Nasdaq and Russell) while the other three indexes are still forming Spitting Cobras, which are only LIKELY to head lower.
Today we run right into an inflection point as the Federal Reserve releases the Minutes of their last meeting at 2pm, followed by Evans (dove) speaking at 3:30 and Tarullu (dove) speaking at 7pm, in case the Asian markets don't get the message about how doveish we intend to be the first time.
Forget the Ukraine, there's an all-out Global currency war being waged even as we speak and yesterday the Dollar was the clear winner by losing 1% of its value in a single day. With over 250 days left until the end of the year, that extrapolates out to -150% by Christmas, which means you'd better start shopping now, before your next IPhone costs $1,000 (if you can even afford the gas to get to the store, that is).
While a weak currency may not be good for those of you with JOBS, who get paid in Dollars or those of you with small businesses, who buy more and more expensive raw materials and then have to accept Dollars from your customers – for our Corporate Citizens, it could not be better – as they sell 50% of their goods overseas so a weak Dollar is great for sales and it lowers the relative wages they pay US workers and, of course, it makes Dollar debt so much cheaper to pay back.
That is how the Interests of our Corporate Citizens and the Government align. Our Government also has a lot of debt to pay back, but they have to pay it back in Dollars and, the less the Dollar is worth, the cheaper it is for them to pay it back. USUALLY, when your currency is weak, interest rates rise to compensate – so there's a check and balance to the system but the Fed has destroyed those checks and balances, allowing us to devalue our currency with NO CONSEQUENCES – EVER!!!