Phil's Newsletter

Trump Error, Day 14 – What, You Think our Country is so Innocent?

"We've got a lot of killers."

That, and the headline above are things our President said on Fox ahead of the Superbowl.  That followed up on his tweet on Friday that Iran is "playing with fire" which has been keeping Oil (/CL) up around the $54 line so we can thank President Trump for another GREAT opportunity to short oil this morning below the $54 line.   

Trump has been on the warpath all weekend because hundreds of top business leaders are petitioning against his immigration ban and a the 9th US Circuit Court struck down his ban on Sunday, which led Trump to tweet: "What is our country coming to when a judge can halt a Homeland Security travel ban?"

Yeah, that system of checks and balances upon which our entire Constitutional system is based – what a disaster!  Despite overwhelming "fake news" polls that show the vast majority of the country think the Travel Ban is going too far, Team Trump is appealing the matter to the Federal Appeals Court in San Francisco but, you know – San Francisco – so it's likely this will fly (unlike Arab immigrants) towards the Supreme Court soon enough.  

Uncertainty is not a good thing for the stock markets and the CEOs that are protesting the ban are flat-out saying it's bad for their companies so, if Trump wins, companies like AAPL, FB, GOOGL, MSFT, HPQ are flat-out saying they will lose business and a long-term competitive edge?  It's a good time to have Ultra-Short Nasdaq (SQQQ) hedges!  

Open Borders are now closed, the era of Free Trade is ending, Financial Regulations are being reversed, 1/10th of the US Population is losing its Health Care, US policy on Climate Change has reversed and we're back to war talk in the Middle East and you think this isn't going to affect the markets?  

If everything that was happening for the past 8 years has been bullish – as the Dow climbed from 8,000 to 20,000 (up 150%) under the "terrible" Obama Administration, how will the opposite policies also be "GREAT" for the markets under the Trump Administration.  Are we saying that, in the…
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Non-Farm Friday – 3 More Winning Futures Trades!

We went 3 for 3 yesterday.  

After hitting 9 out of 10 of our picks on Wednesday (7 out of 10 for greedy people), yesterday's 3 Futures Trade Ideas made $2,560 on 3 single contracts led by Gasoline (/RB) which gave us a quick 3-cent fall that paid $1,260 per contract just 60 minutes after the bell.   

Oil gave us an equally quick $500 per contract gain and Natural Gas (/NG) took 3 hours to make us $800 as it topped out at $3.20 – talk about working hard for our money!  After all that money-making, we were too exhausted to trade but it was a fun morning and we also found long we liked on Nokia (NOK), Starbucks (SBUX), Harley-Davidson (HOG) and Macy's (M) for our Members in our Live Chat Room.

I apologize to our Seeking Alpha readers because they missed the opportunity to profit from yesterday's trades as our Morning Report was not published there for the following reason:

Dear Philip Davis,

Hi Phil – I think this one is too politically-weighted for us, noting that even the title isn't investment-related, and taking a personal shot at the VP. Would you be amenable to modifying today's report to remove the political commentary?

Sincerely Yours,
SA Editors

Image result for mike pence heartYes, I did insinuate that Mike Pence did not have a heart but that is what I believe and wouldn't Mike Pence want us to believe whatever we want to – no matter what "alternative facts" are presented?  If he does have a heart, I apologize but I've never seen it (or any indication of it) but maybe he can hold a press conference and
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Groundhog Day – I Woke Up and Trump Was Still President!

Image result for groundhog day animated gifWhen will the madness end?

In the great, great movie, Groundhog Day, Bill Murray wakes up every day and, to his dismay, finds it's the same day as yesterday.  No matter what he does, he is trapped in a loop, living the same day over and over again.  This is how I feel when I wake up and read President Trump's latest tweets – I cannot believe this guy is really the President of the United States of America – certainly not the one they taught us about in history class.  Well, since 1863, anyway

Since yesterday, Donald J Trump has threatened UC Berkeley with cutting off federal funds, put Iran "ON NOTICE" and gotten into an argument with the President of Australia over immigrants – just another day in Trupmerica.  Not surprisingly, the markets are down again but gold is doing very well and oil got a pop with all the war talk with Iran and, of course, Exxon's (XOM) Rex Tillerson being sworn in as Secretary of State – just a heartbeat away from the Presidency (it would be Pence, but he has no heart). 

Image result for america oil company armyImagine if Rex Tillerson becomes President?  America will become exactly what we've been accused of being for all these years – since we first started toppling Governments in Iran and putting in our puppets so many years ago.  Ah, good times!  

America is indeed an oil company with an army and Trump's Secretary of State, the man who negotiates our trade and makes all those sensitive deals around the World, has worked for Exxon since 1975 and ran the company since 2006, when oil ran up to $140 a barrel and gasoline was approaching $5/gallon, which is $210 a barrel – but that's a different story of greed and corruption.

Well, since I mentioned it – consider the fact that a barrel of oil now costs $54 and a gallon of gasoline (there's 42 gallons per barrel) costs $1.57, which is $65.94 so the mark-up from oil to gas is 22% but, more importantly, it's $11.94 – that's the cost of refining the oil into gasoline.  When the price of oil
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Wednesday – Apple Earnings Today Keep the Bears at Bay

Go Apple go! 

Once again, Apple (AAPL) puts in a stunning quarter and we couldn't be more pleased as AAPL is one of the largest positions in our Long-Term Portfolio as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio.  Our target in the LTP is $130 by next January and, if we hit it, our net $14.50 Jan $100/130 bull call spread (from 10/20) will return $30 for a very nice $15.50 (107%) gain.  There's no margin in a bull call spread, a nice options trade for beginners however, we got a little fancier in the OOP and our position looks like this:

The net cash outlay of the position was $22,650 and, if all goes well, it will pay $90,000 at $130 for a $67,350 profit less whatever we owe the short callers, probably $20,000 at $130 so net/net $47,350 profit is still over 200% back on cash on the biggest position in our portfolio – we can live with that!

AAPL was our Trade of the Year in 2013, 2014 and 2015 but last year it was Natural Gas (UNG) and this year it's Silver Wheaton (SLW) and both, of course, are in our Options Opportunity Portfolio as well as our Long-Term Portfolio.  Our 2015 Trade of the Year on AAPL just expired with AAPL right at our $120 target on Jan 20th and that cashed us out of that one at the full $90,000 from our initial $8,000 cash outlay (we were more aggressive with put sales then) for a very nice $82,000 (1,025%) profit in less than two years.  

By the way, do not spend $3/day to subscribe to our newsletter or you will see trade ideas like this all the time!

Having hopefully established my bona fides as an Apple bull, let's talk about why they are no longer our Trade of the Year.  70% of the company's sales are iPhones, that's a little worrying but, then again, if my company had to have all its eggs in one basket – that's a pretty good one!  Bears use it as a knock but 90% of GMs sales are cars, 90% of Nike's sales are sneakers…  We get it, AAPL is…
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Terrific Tuesday – Our Webinar Play Makes Members $3,000

Wheeee!  

I love a nice pullback.  Lord Trump knows we waited long enough but our decision to stick with our Dow Futures (/YM) shorts over the weekend was a good one.  Even if you aren't a Member and didn't get to see our weekly Live Trading Webinar, we still gave that trade idea away FOR FREE in Thursday morning's post – so don't complain if you missed it.  

We also had our Oil Short (/CL) at $53.50 and those were good for $1,000 per contract as oil hit $52.50 in yesterday's dip.  This morning, we flipped long on Natural Gas (/NG) as the Dollar fell below 100 to prop up the markets, which might give a boost to commodities and the Northeast will be cooling off for the next two weeks but it's just a quick trade as global warming continues to spoil Winter, overall.

By the way, we don't only trade Futures at Phil's Stock World or the name wouldn't make any sense.  We trade stocks and options but those are more conservative and relatively boring – so they don't make the headlines on a daily basis.  In fact, our Long-Term Portfolio, despite yesterday's pullback, has 54 stock and option positions and is up over 145% in 3 years and we just added 2 positions yesterday as a few bargains presented themselves (see our Top Trade Alert).  

This morning, we are looking to add to our Teva (TEVA) position, as we feel the sell-off is overdone (see notes in Member Chat).  We will probably add it to our Options Opportunity Portfolio as well and that's a much more aggressive portfolio that has gained almost 150% since it's inception on 8/8/15 and, in fact, GAINED yesterday as our hedged kicked in to offset the drop. 

So let's talk about hedging.  It's one thing to get trade ideas from this service or that but if you don't incorporate those trades into a BALANCED and HEDGED portfolio, your fate is tied to the market.  For the last 8 years (the Obama years), that has been a good thing but now it's the Trump Error


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Trump Error, Day 7 – Waiting on the Fed

Well, now what?  

The World was shocked at the US's sweeping Muslim ban with another round of anti-Trump protests at home and abroad and the Global Markets are tumbling and the Volatility Index (VIX) is rising as even Green-Card Holders were banned from returning to the US on a sudden executive order that stranded thousands of legal immigrants overseas this weekend

I'd love to not talk about politics but politics is driving the markets at the moment so responsible analysts NEED to discuss politics or they are doing you a tremendous disservices.  I'm not going to get into the back and forth of the thing – that's all over the papers but we also declared a trade war with Mexico and China is now saying:

"'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality." 

The commentary was first reported by South China Morning Post on Friday, and comes amid concerns about a trade war between the world's two largest economies. "The Chinese government is quite concerned about the potential for direct confrontation with the Trump administration," said Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group. "Chinese officials are preparing for the worst, and they expect to retaliate decisively in response to any U.S. policies they perceive as against their interests."

So happy Monday to you on Day 7 of the Trump Error.  Over in Europe, Germany is now worried about too much inflation and is calling for the ECB to start tightening monetary policy but poor Italy is still having bank troubles (and Europe is down 1% this morning with Italy down 2%) and Greece and Puerto Rico are both heading into debt crises (again).

Peurto Rico got an extension but the IMF just said Greece's debt, at 275% of their GDP is "explosive and highly unsustainable".  Explosive and unsustainable is what they say about collapsing stars - not economies inside the solar system!  And if the IMF says this about Greece, then why are Japan and China still getting a pass – both of whom have over 250% debt to GDP (assuming you can even believe China's GDP number).


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Using Stock Options to Pay Yourself 2% Monthly Dividends

Sometimes we forget the basics.

In our video series, there's a lesson called "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns on Stocks" and I hope you've seen it.  Although the low implied volatility of the market has made it a rough year for option selling, we were still able to scratch out just over 40% profits in four months in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios.    Our other virtual portfolios are also performing very well with the Options Opportunity Portfolio up over 100% in 2016 and, surprisingly, our very conservative Butterfly Portfolio is up over 60% due to some not very conservative bullish adjustments we made in the February dip.  On the whole, though, we accomplished all this by following the BASIC strategies we teach at Philstockworld, not by gambling! 

I've written this article before, the first draft was on May 14th of 2016 so let's start by showing you how our picks from that article did so MAYBE you will take the rest of what we have to teach you seriously – time is money and, at PSW – we don't waste either!  

Trade Idea #1 was Barrick Gold (ABX) using the following combination:

  • Buy 1,000 shares of ABX for $18.40 ($18,400)
  • Sell 10 June $18 calls for $1.40 ($1,400) 

In this case, ABX was at $20.11 on June 17th and the stock was called away for $18  ($18,000) so the profit was $1 ($1,000, as you keep the short call money too).  While making $1,000 an outlay of $17,000 (5.8%) is not that sexy, keep in mind this was 34 days later – that's your MONTHLY dividend, as advertised.  

Trade Idea #2 was Ford Motors (F) using the following combination:

  • Sell 1 F 2018 $12 put for $1.50 ($150) 

The idea of that trade was to collect the $1.50 and only buy F at net $10.50 if it went lower.  It didn't and the short puts are currently priced at $1.15 ($115) so they are up $35 (23%) in 8 months.   Obviously, you don't have to do one contract – it was just…
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GDPhriday – Trump Declares War (trade) on Mexico!

Behold the tragedy of NAFTA!  

Before the evil Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Alliance, US companies exported $24Bn worth of goods and services to Mexico.  In the 30 years since then, our trade EXPORTS to Mexico have gone up 10 TIMES, creating hundreds of thousands of US jobs that never existed before.  

Mexico had similar success, with even more exports going to the US but a lot of that is oil (and the rest are avocados) and the US is going to import oil from somewhere, regardless – better we do it from a friend and trading partner like Mexico than buy more oil from OPEC, right?  Well, not according to our President, who thinks we are better off not exporting $236Bn to Mexico in order to redress a $60Bn Trade Deficit.

Perhaps we would be better off figuring out what kind of things Mexicans would like to buy from the US and encouraging that kind of manufacturing in the US?  Just a thought…  Also a thought that the US economy is $19Tn and Mexico's economy is $1Tn so the fact that they are anywhere close to an equal trading partner is amazing.   In fact, 1/4 (25%) of their ENTIRE economy is imports from the US while the US only imports 1.5% from Mexico.  If anyone should be pissed off at their trading partner – it's Mexico!  

That's not the way our Tweeter-In-Chief sees things and yesterday he threw a little temper tantrum and cancelled the SCHEDULED meeting with Mexico's President because Nieto said they were not going to pay for Trump's monument to his own stupidity.   

Image result for how tariffs workTrump says Mexico WILL pay for the wall by imposing 20% tariffs on imports from Mexico but perhaps the President doesn't understand how tariffs work?  A tariff is a TAX (that's right, Trump is raising taxes) on imported goods and those taxes are simply passed along to the consumers who, in this case, are the American (not Mexican) people.  YOUR avocados will be 3 for $5 instead of 4 for $5 – that's what a tariff will accomplish.  

So when Donald Trump says…
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Thursday Thoughts: What Now High Dow?

Well we hit 20,000 – now what?

As exciting as it has been to get here, the view from the top is kind of scary.  In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, we shorted the Dow Futures (/YM) at the 20,000 mark and the Dow topped out at 20,069 for a $345 per contract loss but we decided to ride it out since the Dollar is rising and earnings are not that hot so we are expecting at least a small retracement after the 2,000-point (10%) post-election run.  

We're still shorting oil (/CL) at $53.50 and our friends at BP have finally seen the light, stating in their 2017 Energy Outlook that oil demand will grow at just 1.3% per year through 2035 (down from 3.4% in the past two decades) and oil supply will continue to outpace oil demand (due to increased efficiency and renewables), ultimately leading to something I have been saying will happen for years:

The surplus should spur increasing competition between companies and producer nations to ensure their assets were not left “stranded” as demand gradually shifts from oil to cleaner forms of energy. The result is likely to be “quite significant pressures to dampen long-run prices”, according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist.

Stranded oil is a difficult concept to grasp after hearing about peak oil for years but the bottom line is that there is more discovered oil in the ground than the World is EVER likely to use because demand for oil is crossing below supply as alternative fuels gain traction and efficiency increases.  At a certain point, oil will be as much of a fuel as wood is today.  

Stranded Oil

That's a problem for Energy Companies and their investors, as well as for countries that depend on oil for their revenues and that's why the Saudis NOW, are investing $2 TRILLION to move their economy off oil before it's too late.  Meanwhile, they are going to sell all the oil they can for as much as they can but so will US oil holders and everyone else in the World for that matter – it's a warehouse clearance sale and EVERYTHING MUST GO!  


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Record-Breaking Wednesday – Dow 20,000 Back in Sight!

Will today be the day?

Yesterday the Dow closed 88 points shy of 20,000 and this morning the Futures are flying up 81 points so far as Europe rallies off of our rally so now we can rally because they are rallying and tomorrow they can rally because we rallied and we don't even need a reason – isn't that great?

We have to hit 20,000 because CNBC has hats in front of all their anchors so the fix is obviously in – the question is what happens next?  Earnings, so far, have been decent with companies like JNJ, DD, CNI, CA, EAT, NSC, CP, IBKR and NVS lowering guidance in the past week (3 rails!) while ROK, MKC, BABA, SAP, STX, IBM and NFLX guiding up.  

Despite the poor outlook by the rails, material stocks have led the rally this week on expectations of infrastructure spending (a theme I discussed on Money Talk last week).  In fact, at last year's Trader's Expo (2/22) in NY, my value investing lecture featured a PowerPoint presentation on Freeport McMoran (FCX) because we saw this coming LONG before Trump got elected.  At the time, I said:

We can make that a more aggressive trade by adding the Jan $5 ($3.15)/$10 ($1.25) bull call spread at $1.90 and let's say we do a 2:1 ratio making the trade look like this:

  • Sell 10 FCX 2018 $5 puts for $2.16 ($2,160)
  • Buy 20 FCX Jan $5 calls for $3.15 ($6,300)
  • Sell 20 FCX Jan $10 calls for $1.25 ($2,500)

That nets us into $10,000 worth of Jan spreads for $1,640 so the profit potential on this trade would be $8,360 for a 509% gain on cash.


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Phil's Favorites

Scarier than the Living Dead

I can't change an oil filter.

Scarier than the Living Dead

Courtesy of Joshau Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Our current state of affairs – this is an overgeneralization – two versions of the American existence are emerging as separate entities.

There’s the Knowledge Economy and there’s Trumpism, with a lot less overlap between the two with each passing day. We’re not exactly forced to pick the one around which we’ll coalesce, it’s more that we increasingly feel compelled to. Your choice depends on where you live, what your community looks like, which media outlet you get your news from, how religious you are, what level of education you’ve attaine...



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Zero Hedge

Ignore OPEC, It's China That Dictates Oil Prices

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The OPEC deal will lead to an ongoing tightening of the crude oil market, putting a floor beneath crude prices in the $50s per barrel in the second half of 2017, according to Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets. She said that prices should ultimately “grind higher into the $60s” by the fourth quarter, with an...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

European Stocks Steady; Italian Banks Fall After Renzi Comments (Bloomberg)

European stocks were steady while shares in Italy’s banks dropped along with the country’s bonds after comments from former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sparked concerns that an early election is possible.

Hong Kong Throngs of Thousands Defy Bid to Cool Home Market...



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ValueWalk

Joel Greenblatt - Individual Investors Can Beat Large Institutions And Passive Strategies

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of our favorite Joel Greenblatt interviews is one he did with Steve Forbes at Intelligent Investing.

In this interview, Greenblatt explains how small investors can still beat large institutions. Greenblatt also discusses why investing in indexes like The Russell 1000 and the S&P 500 are seriously flawed even though they beat most active managers.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

We respect your email privacy

He highlights why value investors can benefit greatly from toda...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 28, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Another winning week for the bulls, in a year full of them!  Things kicked off with a bang with a gap up Monday as the after shocks of the Comey removal – the one thing that seemed to shake this market for 24 hours – passed in the night.   Wednesday, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed broad agreement on plans to begin shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet and also pointed to a likely rate increase next month, as widely expected.   Another gap up to start the day Thursday and serenity was found for the week.  Every day was up for the S&P 500 to book a weekly finished of +1.4% while the NASDAQ raced ahead +2.1%.

The minutes of the early May meeting showed that members were ...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, and its meteoric rise has made it a mainstay of conversation for investors, media, and technologists alike.

In fact, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins details, the innovation of the blockchain is changing entire markets, while causing ripples with central banks and the financial industry. At time of publication, the bitcoin price now hovers near US$2,200, a massive increase from this time last year.

But the true impact of Bitcoin is actually far more reaching than this – it’s a...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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