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Phil's Newsletter

Which Way Wednesday – Beige Books and Strong Bounces

SPY 5 MINUTEWow, what a fun day yesterday was!  

As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we went up in the Futures 30 S&P points and then we fell from the open 30 S&P points and then we recovered into the close 30 S&P points.  This is what we call a "Bugs Bunny Market," where Bugs throws a switch and people stamped in and out of the theater (5:00 on this video) -  and it's not usually a good thing.  

In fact, that's the action we saw back on 2/28, when I was warning people to get to cash and, in fact, I tweeted out a similar comment (with the same video link) and our trade idea for playing the next 45 days was:

TZA/Craig – Well, the April $14/17 is still doable at $1.30 and you can sell the $15 puts for .88 for net .42 now

RUT WEEKLYEven with the Russell's bounce off our 1,100 goal yesterday, TZA is still at $17.65 and the April spread, which expires tomorrow, is net $1.90 – up a very nice 350% in 45 days (you can follow me on Twitter here, but I rarely tweet our Member Trade Ideas – for those, you have to sign up HERE).  

We actually flipped long on the Russell during our Live Trading Webcast at 1pm yesterday, catching it pretty much on the button and I showed people, LIVE, how to make hundreds of dollars in just 15 minutes trading the Futures (replay available here). 

In yesterday's post, I reminded you we were shorting oil at $104 and we caught a $500 per contract move back to $103.50 but then (also live in the Webcast), we decided to wait for $105ish to re-short today (/CL Futures).  This morning, I posted early (6:22) to our Members that we had our shorting opportunity at $104.95 and already (8:06) we're back to $104.65 and that's good for $300 per contract after a hard morning's work – plenty of money for breakfast!  

We're still expecting a much bigger drop, probably not until after…
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Testy Tuesday – Tax Day Edition

Time to pay your taxes.

But, fortunately, it's still not time to pay the piper for all that money we're borrowing to goose the economy.  Well, goose may be too strong a term as 5 years and $5 Trillion Dollars into this mess, we're really only flatlined the GDP to where it was back in 2007.  

Did you get your $5,000,000,000,000 worth?  We know the top 0.01% sure did.  We've made the World's Billionaires alone $1.4Tn richer than they were in 2009 – and it only cost 140M working Americans $37,714 each!  That's how much $5Tn in additional debt has cost us – on top of the $2.5Tn we piled on fighting Iraq or Afghanistan for whatever reason it was we had to invade those guys. 

Billionaires

Don't worry, it's all fair, each one of those Billionaires also owes the same $37,714 as you do – they feel your pain!  Multiply that by 3.5 and that's your share of the National Debt, which is still growing by $500Bn a year, although that's 1/2 of how fast it was growing under Bush II.  And, of course, we're not even counting the Fed's $4Tn of additional debt – because we still get to pretend that will all work itself out in the end.  

Just like CHINA!!!  China's Central Bank has been trying to drain a little liquidity out of the system and it looks like that's already dropped GDP growth for the quarter down to 1.5%, nowhere near the 7.5% annual levels the Government was hoping for. That led Chinese stocks to fall about 1.5% this morning, led down by Financial and Commodity stocks.  That's the reaction to M2 (money supply) GROWING by 12.1% instead of the 13.3% it was growing a month earlier and despite $169Bn in loan growth.

FXI WEEKLY

“Investors are a bit worried because M2 is quite low,” Zhang Haidong, an analyst at Tebon Securities Co., said by phone in Shanghai. “New loans may be better than expected by a little, but it’s still not considered good data;


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Monday Market Movement – Down But Not Out

After a very ugly week, what's in store next?

This is one very ugly chart with an almost 10% drop on the Nasdaq and the Russell but that's GOOD news as it's about where we expect the Central Banksters to step in and do something, before things turn more ugly.  

That's why we weren't pressing our bearish bets last week and we took our very aggressive TZA and XRT bets off the table in our Short-Term Portfolio and our $25,000 Portfolio because, with the indexes down this far, we expect at least a weak bounce to start the week – the question is – what happens after that?  

Very simply, per our 5% Rule™, when the market drops 5%, we expect a 1% retrace and, in the case of the Nasdaq and the Russell, we expect a 2% retrace for a "weak bounce."  Also, as you can see on our Big Chart, we have some serious support on the Dow at our "Must Hold" lijne at 16,000.  There's pretty much no way it can fail that without a bounce.  

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow fell from 16,600 to 16,000 and that's only 3.6% but it's a strong support line but, as noted by Dave Fry in his Dow Chart, the real support comes at the 200 dma, at 15,750, and that's 5.1% today but that 200 dma will rise while it waits for the Dow so we can still expect a test at 15,800, which should be 5% by that time, assuming our weak bounce fails this week. 

On our other indexes, we'll be looking for:

  • Dow 16,600 to 16,000 is 600 points (3.6%) and we're looking for a 120-point weak bounce to 16,120 and a 240-point strong bounce to 16,240 before we believe any sort of "rally."  
  • S&P 1,900 to 1,815 is 85 points down (4.5%) so 17 points to 1,832 is weak and 17 more to 1,849 is strong but let's call it 1,850 before we're impressed.  
  • Nasdaq failed 4,375 and down to 4,000 (8.5%), also a strong technical support line that held up in late Jan/early Feb as well.  Keep in mind, when an index is going to fall 10%,


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Friday Failure – JP Morgan Misses Big!

Wheeeeee – down we go again!  

I hate to say I told you so but — no, actually I'm loving this one…  In fact, JPM specifically was our earnings short of the week – from our Live Chat Room on Monday morning, I said to our Members:

Earnings/QC – I think I like a bearish play on JPM best.   STZ also tempting for a short but, with JPM, we already liked them short on the Dow list.  With JPM at $59.60, I like selling the May $57.50 calls for $2.90 and buying the Jan $57.50/62.50 bull call spread at $2.40 to cover for a net .50 credit.  If all goes well, JPM goes down and the short May calls expire worthless and whatever is left on the spread is bonus money (plus the credit). 

This isn't that complicated folks, we just read the news and make a play.  The rest is just picking the right option strategy and allocating appropriate amounts of cash – this is what we teach people how to do every day at PSW (you can join us HERE).  That trade will be up more than 100% for the week this morning as JPM plunges to about $55.  Yet another example of all the fun things we can do with our CASH!!!

And you KNOW we shorted Oil Futures (/CL) at $103.50 – I told you that in yesterday morning's post.  We already hit $103 overnight (up $500 per contract) and we re-loaded this morning at $103.40 and now we're heading back to $103 yet again.  Hopefully this is the big one and we get a ride back to $102 – which would be up $1,500 per contract.

SPY 5 MINUTEI mentioned we were back to bearish in the morning post yesterday and, at 11:14, we added an aggressive SDS (ultra-short S&P) May $27/30 bull call spread at $1.15, buying 20 of those for $2,300, offset with the sale of a single ISRG 2016 $350 put at $31 ($3,100) for a net $800 credit.  In yesterday's sell-off alone, the bull call spread finished at $1.65 ($3,300)
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Fed-Fueled Thursday – Do We Have Enough Thrust?

Wow, what a recovery!  

I mean we expected a bounce yesterday on Monday, when we pointed out that there were 3 Fed Doves in a row speaking after the release of the minutes but – WOW! – that was pretty extreme.  Still, it only got us right to the 1,160 weak bounce we were looking for on Monday.  That's right, 1,160 on the dot was predicted Monday Morning, before the market opened, as the bounce line for the Russell.  

As I often remind our Members, I can only tell you what's going to happen and suggest ways to profit from it – what you do with that information is entirely up to you!    

What we did with that information on Monday, at 3pm in our Live Member Chat Room, was the following:

That's why I still like buying the f'ing dips on the Futures – worth losing a few while hoping to catch a nice bounce.  Now our lines are 16,200 (/YM), 1,835 (/ES), 3,500 (/NQ) and 1,130 (/TF) – any of which can be played bullish if 2 are over the lines.  

Needless to say, those lines worked out very well as we're now at 16,330, 1,861, 3,583 and 1,152 and Tuesday Morning's Alert to Members gave us an even better re-entries on the Dow (16,100) and a 230-point bump in the Dow is good for $1,150 per contract!  

This is why we LIKE having CASH!!! on the sidelines:  We catch a nice down move, cash back out – catch a nice up move, cash back out, etc. and, every night, we go to sleep not at all worried about what's happening.  It's not only relaxing, and profitable – it's FUN!

I put out a News Alert this morning (and you can now read those if you follow our Facebook Page, which is also where Members should go if the site ever crashes, so make sure you "Like" it) where we called for a "conviction short" on oil at $103.50…
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Wednesday Weakness – Will The Fed Turn Us Back Up?

Wheeee – what a ride!  

As nasty as our Big Chart looks at the moment, we only have two Vomiting Cobra Patterns (Nasdaq and Russell) while the other three indexes are still forming Spitting Cobras, which are only LIKELY to head lower.  

Today we run right into an inflection point as the Federal Reserve releases the Minutes of their last meeting at 2pm, followed by Evans (dove) speaking at 3:30 and Tarullu (dove) speaking at 7pm, in case the Asian markets don't get the message about how doveish we intend to be the first time.  

Forget the Ukraine, there's an all-out Global currency war being waged even as we speak and yesterday the Dollar was the clear winner by losing 1% of its value in a single day.  With over 250 days left until the end of the year, that extrapolates out to -150% by Christmas, which means you'd better start shopping now, before your next IPhone costs $1,000 (if you can even afford the gas to get to the store, that is).  

While a weak currency may not be good for those of you with JOBS, who get paid in Dollars or those of you with small businesses, who buy more and more expensive raw materials and then have to accept Dollars from your customers – for our Corporate Citizens, it could not be better – as they sell 50% of their goods overseas so a weak Dollar is great for sales and it lowers the relative wages they pay US workers and, of course, it makes Dollar debt so much cheaper to pay back.  

That is how the Interests of our Corporate Citizens and the Government align.  Our Government also has a lot of debt to pay back, but they have to pay it back in Dollars and, the less the Dollar is worth, the cheaper it is for them to pay it back.  USUALLY, when your currency is weak, interest rates rise to compensate – so there's a check and balance to the system but the Fed has destroyed those checks and balances, allowing us to devalue our currency with NO CONSEQUENCES – EVER!!!

Well,…
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Technical Tuesday – Small Correction or BIG TROUBLE?

Wheeeeee – down we go!

We couldn't be happier, of course – as we were feeling a little silly having cashed out a month ago, with the market making new highs on us.  Still, we stuck to our Fundamental guns and now we are outperforming the market by a mile this year and, even better, we have some exciting opportunities to use our sideline cash to do a little shopping – but not yet.  

There's no hurry.  Those XRT May $84 puts I mentioned in yesterday's post that went from 0.85 last Thursday to $1.42 yesterday morning hit $2.35 into yesterday's close.  That's up another 65% in a day and that's money that's compounding for us on the way down, up 176% in 3 days now.  This is what we do with our sideline cash – so it's not like we sit around twiddling our thumbs…

I sent out an Alert to our Members yesterday to sell the T July $35 calls for $1.10 to cover a long position we have on T.  Pre-market they are down 1% and those short calls are up 10% on day one already – but there's 100 more days to go.  Again, this is what we can do with our sideline cash.  We also shorted JPM in an earnings spread – that trade is here from our Live Daily Chat Room.  

We had lots of fun in our Futures trading, flip-flopping our bets for the bounces and catching nice moves in both directions – but mostly down.  We even made some quick money with long plays on the Momo stocks – also playing for bounces.  Our last trade idea of the day was shorting /NKD as it failed the 14,800 mark into the close (coupled with a falling Dollar and rising Yen) and that index fell straight down to 14,450, good for $1,750 per contract.  We were already longer-term short position on the Nikkei through our EWJ puts in the Short-Term Portfolio, this was just a bonus bet.  We also added JNJ May $95 puts at .80, those could be fun if the weakness continues.  

RUT WEEKLYNow things are going to
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Monday Markets – Guiding in for a Crash Landing?

It's earnings season again!  

Guidance has gotten uglier, as evidenced by this FactSet chart.  These are those annoying Fundamentals I keep whining about while everyone else is trying to have a good time betting on the bull market lasting forever.  

Of course, we know how to make money off this news – just last Thursday I sent out an alert to our Members at 9:39 am, after we discussed "positive" retail sales data and I put it in context in Member Chat, saying:

Retail sales – That data is very misleading because they were slashing prices to clear inventory.  I wouldn't bet a penny based on Retail Sales numbers in Europe until we see the earnings reports.  I expect margins will be squeezed hard.  

Speaking of which, our buddies at XRT are back where we love to short them so let's add 5 May $84 puts at 0.85 in the $25KP and 10 in the STP. 

As you can see from the chart, we timed it just right and those puts are already $1.42 as of Friday's close, up 67% per contract in 48 hours.  That's $1,420 back off an $850 investment (10 contracts) in just two days.  We can make plays like this because we have cash on the sidelines, since we took our money and ran at the top of the market.  Perhaps I was too cautious – as we haven't had much of a pullback yet – but who cares when we can make quick profits like these? 

SPY 5 MINUTEAlso in Friday morning's post (Report Members get them delivered, in progress at 8:35 and final copies before the market opens each day), I called for shorting the S&P Futures (/ES) at 1,890 (and we just held a Live Trading Futures Workshop on Tuesday)
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Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?

SPY 5 MINUTESorry, but this "rally" is just too much BS for me. 

As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we're running up on ZERO volume in the Futures and then we sell off all day on very low volume (because there are no buyers and the Funds are exiting slowly) and then we have dip at the finish as the ETFs that HAVE to buy at MOC (Market on Close)pricing get shares jammed down their throats by the pumpers.  

It's a complete and utter farce and completely ignored by the MSM, especially the Financial Media, who just play along as if none of this matters.  While you may consider the manipulation of currency and metals markets to be news (both are under international investigation at the moment) – it doesn't rate a mention in the Financial Media, who's advertising revenue comes mainly from the companies that are being investigated for fraud and manipulation.  

SPY 5 MINUTEApril Fools! The above is what I wrote along with the chart on March 7th in "Non-Farm Friday – America Still Not Working." That was 30 days ago, we've come a long way since then because, THIS TIME, we have SPY at 188.63 coming into Non-Farm Payrolls, so take THAT 188.10 – IN YOUR FACE!  

Despite the month-long flatline, the bullish trade idea we had back on 3/7 was a big winner.  Our trade idea in that mornings post (which you can get delivered to your mailbox, pre-market by subscribing here) was:


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Free Money Thursday – Chinese Stimulus To the Rescue!

MORE FREE MONEY!!!

China gave the markets a big boost this morning by announcing an immediate $25Bn program for railway construction and another $50Bn a year for "more stuff."  That sent the Nikkei flying to 15,150 but then Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 for March and the Nikkei gave back 75 points while the Hang Seng closed just 0.2% over flat and the Shanghai fell 0.75%, back to 2,043, just 5% over the lows they've been testing all year at that critical 2,000 line.  

Now to some extent we could say "what's the difference where the money comes from, as long as they keep giving it to us?" and that would be the correct attitude, if we were 8 years-old and had no concept of consequences!  As adults, we should wonder – WTF are all these Governments so afraid of that they can't even allow a small correction before jumping back in with "emergency measures"?

China's House of CardsThe simple answer is that IT'S A GIGANTIC CON, like the time they built a fake town in Blazing Saddles - it looked good, as long as you didn't look behind the facades.  If you actually tried to touch it, it would fall over like a house of cards.  That's what happens when you prop up an economy with stimulus – you haven't built a foundation – it's all a facade, so the Central Banks that built it are terrified to see it tested….

The con depends very much on people BELIEVING that the house of cards is a real house.  Without a constant inflow of investment Dollars, the slightest breeze can knock the whole thing over and we'd be right back to the wreck we had before.  And, of course, it's not just China that's built a house of cards.  The US, Europe, Japan – pretty much all the Central Banksters are participating because, rather than let the banks fail in 2009, they pretended everything was OK and went about trying to back-fill the $15Tn Global hole in their balance sheets by printing money and, not so subtly, handing it out to them.  

That's over $5Tn in debt (now, this…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

Courtesy of  

The US Government has been deliberately and systematically understating inflation since 1983. This video shows how the BLS does it.

This is a segment from the June 27 Radio Free Wall Street video for subscribers. The remainder of the program discusses why July could be rocky for stocks, and why real time data Federal tax revenues suggest that the financial engineering bubble should be near its peak. Subscribe to all of these cutting edge commentar...



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Zero Hedge

Here Is How Amazon's Ugliest Quarter In Years Looked Like In Six Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just when we thought "the world's marketplace" Amazon couldn't possibly report any uglier quarterly numbers, it goes and proves us wrong. First, it reported an EPS loss of $0.27, vs the $0.15 expected as a result of ($126) million in Net Income. The operating loss was "only" $15 million compared to an expectation of $64 million, however this appears the result of pulling forward wales into Q2 since the Company also announced that the Q3 operating loss would be a whopping $410-$810 million, what would be the biggest operating loss in years. That this will happen even as AMZN expects net sales to grow between 15% and 26% from a year ago to $19.7 - $21.5 billion is truly disturbing.

As to what i...



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Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

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Chart School

3 Things Worth Thinking About

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

I spent a good deal of time yesterday going through a point-counterpoint analysis of the current bull market. However, there are a few things that have been sitting on my desk that I wanted to make some comments on, and given we are now winding up the week, this is a good day address them.

1) SEC Votes To Put "Gates" On Money Market Funds

Zerohedge posted a very important article yesterday that deserves some serious consideration by all investors. To wit:

"Moments ago the gates arrived, when following a c...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: 3M Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MMM Earnings Scheduled For July 24, 2014 Stocks To Watch For July 24, 2014 Nasdaq Seen Rallying on Apple, Facebook Results (Fox Business)

3M Company (NYSE: MMM) reported in-line earnings for the second quarter.

The St. Paul, Minnesota-based company posted a quarterly net profit of $1.27 billion, or $1.91 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $1.2 billio...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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