Phil's Newsletter

Will We Hold It Wednesday – High Hopes at 5,440 (again)

Image result for monks roller coaster

Here we go again!  

The Nasdaq has run up to our 5,440 shorting line (/NQ) but, sadly, none of the other indexes are following suit.  Back on our March 16th PSW Report, the levels we laid out for shorting were:

  • Dow Futures (/YM) at 2,100
  • S&P Futures (/ES) at 2,390
  • Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) at 5,440
  • Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,390

In our live Member Chat Room, the week before (11th) I had laid out the shorting lines and expected bottoms for all of our Futures indexes with charts and graphs and I'll reprint them here as they are still aprropriate – even 3 weeks later:

2,380 to 2,340 is 1.7% and we expect 8-point bounce to 2,348 (check) and 2,356 and notice 2,356, not 55 is a good line to short again.

Have to call this 21,000 – even though we didn't make it and call the fall 420, even though it didn't and we have 20,580 with 85-point bounces to 20,666 (because who doesn't like Satan?) and 20,750 will…
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Tuesday Turmoil – Tesla Valuation Reaches Peak Insanity

$48 BILLION Dollars!  

Not a bad valuation for a company that lost $2Bn last year.  That's a p/e of infinity and beyond.  Of course, you have to hand it to Tesla as they did deliver 25,000 cars in Q1 and that's up 25% from last year so they are well on their way to missing their 500,000 car projection by next year by only 350,000 cars – well done Elon!  

That does not stop the Tesla (TSLA) bulls from BUYBUYBUYing the stock though.  Even by the companies own projections – if they can do all the BS they claim they can do and if they find enough money to stay open in 2017, they only project making $2 per $300 share (p/e 150) in 2018 – that's a 0.666% return on your money over 2 years (not counting the $2 they'll lose this year – then it's net zero).  

General Motors (GM) MAKES $6 per share and their shares are $34.  That's infinity times what TSLA makes and 3 times what they TSLA wishes it would make and the stock is about 1/10th the price yet GM LOST 3.3% yesterday while TSLA gained 7% – this is MADNESS!  

Oh, and I forgot to mention that GM also pays you a 4.3% ($1.52) dividend while you own their fine stock.  GM is also makes the new Chevy Bolt (the Volt is their old model), which is essentially everything the Tesla Model 3 is supposed to be only the Bolt is already shipping and GM already makes 10M cars a year, 100 TIMES more cars than TSLA makes.  That's current, proven capacity – not fantasy capacity.  

Image result for chevy boltThe Bolt is priced at $37,000 WITHOUT the rebate that TSLA includes in their "starting price" and, with the rebate, the net on a Bolt can be less than $30,000 – about 20% cheaper than the non-existent Model 3.  Even worse for Tesla, the Bolt gets 238 miles of range and they didn't have to spend $2Bn building a "GigaFactory" to do it.  

If GM can buy, off the shelf, batteries that are as…
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Trump Error, Day 75 – “I Regret Nothing”

"I regret nothing

That's what Trump said this weekend in his Financial Times Interview and I wonder if Trump knows that's what Deputy Fuhrer Rudolf Hess said at his Nurenberg trial?  Among other non-regrets Trump discussed is his tweet about Obama wire-tapping his phone, which he claims "is being proven" and the TrumpDon'tCare Bill, which he claims is "still in negotiations."  Trump doesn't just not learn from his mistakes – he doesn't believe his mistakes actually happened.  

It's a very dangerous week in Trumpland as the President meets with President Xi of China at Mar a Lago because nothing says "man of the people" like a 126-room, 110,000 square foot house with 58 bedrooms (but only 33 bathrooms so a real bummer when everyone is getting ready at the same time!).  Leading up to the historic meeting with China, Trump decided to open with an ultimatum, saying: "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.”    

We'll see how that plays out on the World stage, there's already a rumor that North Korea is planning to test another nuclear missile to coincide with the meeting on Thursday and Friday – so expect lots of market turmoil ahead this week as the rumor mill swings into full gear.  

China is very likely to be see as a loser in these talks, even if they win because Team Trump will spin it their way, regardless of reality.  Meanwhile, China has bigger fish to fry as bond defaults are ticking up with 9 in the first quarter vs 29 all of last year.

As you can see from this Bloomberg Chart, rates have been rising fast as the PBOC has put the brakes on leverage and, like our Fed and most Central Banks is also seen on a rate-raising path. This has caused about $20Bn worth of bond sales to be scrapped in Q1 due to the "unfavorable" environment but, if the environment continues to be unfavorable – there will be a serious lack of funds and a lot of these companies are juggling the books to stay alive as it is:


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End of Quarter Window-Dressing

It's time to prop up those indexes and paint a pretty picture!  

As you can see in AfraidToTrade's S&P chart, we burst back over our 2,360 line on the S&P and now we just need to get back over the yellow zone and it's on to all-time highs and, dare we dream, multiple of 25 times forward earnings on our stocks?  

It's very exciting, usually only bond holders accept 4% on their money because bonds are supposed to be a safe, risk-free asset so investors are willing to accept a lower return in exchange for safety.  Now stocks are only returning 4% on our money and people seem fine with that and a 10-year note pays 2% and your checking account pays 0.2% – if you are lucky.

The gist of that is that the money you make, that you work hard for, is not rewarded when you either save or invest it. That then forces you to give your money, VERY CHEAPLY, to the Top 1% – to the Banksters (savings, checking) and the CEOs (stocks, bonds, labor).

You work hard, they pay you less and then, when you want to save or invest your pay – they pay you less again – and then they blame YOU for not working hard enough to get through life without Government handouts (ie. taxing them).  You would think this Administration would be making that shockingly clear to voters by now but CNN did an amazing interview with 6 Trump voters and, after two months, all but one gave him an "A" for performance and the guy that gave him a "B" said he simply never gives As or he would have.  

The problem with the pyramid above is that our Top 20% are now so rich that there's nothing left to take from the bottom 80%.  Once they finish taking your Social Security and Medicare money – there won't be anything left to take (other than jobs through automation, of course) but, before they leave you destitute, they have to first dismantle the Social Safety Net, lest someone points out that it is their duty to feed or educate starving children or some other Liberal nonsense.  


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Thursday Bounce Line Failure – Trouble Ahead?

This is not what the bulls wanted to see.

In yesterday's PSW Report "Weak Bounce Wednesday – B-B-B-Brexit Baby!," we called for shorts below 20,600 on the Dow Futures (/YM), 2,350 on the S&P Futures (/ES), 5,406 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and 1,360 on the Russell (/TF) but we had a pop in the morning and only the Dow went below our line but, in our Live Trading Webinar, we decided to short /TF anyway with 4 short at an average of 1,371 and, now that we're below that line, we can take 2 contract off at 1,369 for a $400 profit and put a stop on the last two at 1,370 to lock in at least $500.  

We're also excited about an opportunity to short oil again as it tests the $50 line this morning (/CL).  Brent crude (/BZ) is also at resistance at $52.50 and we won't short /CL with much enthusiasm (so very tight stops) if  Brent is over but $50 is a tough line for /CL to cross – so it's well worth a short as we get over $49.85 with tight stops over the $50 line, which limits our losses to $150 per contract.   

Over at the NYMEX, there's more than 3 weeks left to FAKE!!! demand but they are already faking demand for over One BILLION barrels of oil for delivery between now and July 20th.  That's only 113 days away so the open contracts on the NYMEX are PRETENDING that they are going to order 9.5 MILLION barrels a day to be delivered to Cushing, OK, a facility that can only handle 90M barrels TOTAL, IF it were not full – which it is.

Of course, it's not a great day to short anything as we're into the normal end-of-month window-dressing so we can expect everything to be propped up a bit.  Even the Dollar is back over 100 (good for $500 per contract on /DX, you are welcome!) and Apple (AAPL) is testing $145, which is now over $1,000 per share pre-split (7:1), up from $85 (pre-split) when I used to foam…
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Weak Bounce Wednesday – B-B-B-Brexit Baby!

Oh baby you know what I like
Chantilly lace and a pretty face
And a pony tail a hangin' down
That wiggle in the walk 
And giggle in the talk
Makes the world go round
There ain't nothin' in the world
Like a big eyed girl
That makes me act so funny
Make me spend my money

Well Brexit is official as the UK finally sent it's breakup letter to the EU (not a text, mind you, the UK is classy that way) and now there is a definitive 2-year countdown clock before they officially divorce – unless they decide to extend it – then it could be longer.  Makes you kind of wonder what all the panic was about.  It's like when your parents get divorced but keep living in the same house.

The markets continue to be divorced from reality as we watch the S&P run a textbook 5% Rule™ correction as it falls 2.5% to 2,340 from 2,400 and that's a 60-point drop so our fabulous 5% Rule™ predicts a 20% weak bounce (12-points) to 2,352 and a 40% strong bounce to 2,364 which, no coincidentally at all, happens to be the 50-day moving average on the S&P.

Of course we are shorting at the 50 dma.  I put a note out to our Members this morning in our Live Chat Room, saying:  

/YM testing 20,600 from above – off a bit from yesterday's close.  /ES 2,350, /NQ 5,406 and /TF 1,361 – all off their highs and we can play the laggards below those lines (5,400 on /NQ and 1,360 on /TF).

As noted above, these are just the weak bounce lines we expected to get to (and fail) after last week's sell-off so, if we're breaking down here – it's a good sign to short the indexes again.


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Tuesday Trump the Terrible Signs Death Warrant for Planet Earth

Image result for donald trump vaderToo political?  Well F you!  

Today, the lunatic in the White House will sign an executive order (no Congressional approval – just his own insane plan) to unravel the climate-change policies Barack Obama enacted in the hopes of saving the Planet Earth.  Oh, and fun fact for you Republican voters – WE LIVE ON PLANET EARTH!!!  

Now, I'm not asking you to believe in climate change.  I'm simply asking you to believe in logic. The Republicans like to say: "The science isn't conclusive" and let's say we accept the fact that your child has a high temperature that may prove fatal if it gets higher and 97 doctors you take him to say you need to IMMEDIATELY get his temperature down or he might die but 3 say – we don't know for sure it will kill him so let it run its course. 

So, what do you do?  Do you just let you child sweat and shiver and get worse and worse while you watch and do nothing or do you TRY to do something to make him or her better?  Well, Donald Trump just decided not only not to do anything but to stop every other parent on this planet from doing something.  In fact, although 97% of the scientists believe man-made carbon-dioxide is causing the problem – Donald J Trump (to be known as "Trump the Terrible – Destroyer of Earth" in our future) is also passing laws to INCREASE our production of CO2.  

Image result for rex tillerson signatureAs noted by Stephen Colbert, in that clip from 2014, Exxon (XOM) was a major force in the climate-denying movement and it is THEIR PAID SCIENTISTS that are the 3 out of 97 that deny climate change and, by the way, who signed their checks at the time – Rex Tillerson – our very own new Secretary of State, back when he was just the lowly CEO of Exxon.  

Image result for climate denialOf course it's not a "conspiracy" – it's simply a coincidence…
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TrumpDon’tCare Plan Fails to Pass – Will the TrumpDon’tTax Act be Next?

And down we go!  

I'll bet those hedges are looking better and better every day now, right?  Now that the enthusiastic GOP investors have learned their first (of many) political lessons of the Trump Error (and we had plenty under Obama when we had both houses), we'll see how their enthusiasm for the market holds up because, as we've noted before – there is/was a huge disparity between economic optimism of Republicans and Democrats and, if the Republicans begin to doubt to the Power of Trump – all those confidence numbers can drop like a rock tied to a bigger rock.

Even as I write this we're getting mail from people trying to explain gravity to us.  Yes, we get it, it was an expression!  On the other hand, a lot of the basics need to be explained to the Trump camp and their supporters if they are going to get anything other than executive orders passed this term (however long that lasts).  The Futures, meanwhile, are following through to the downside this morning and we ran our 5% Rule through the Charts in this morning's Alert to our Members.  Here are the Dow notes as an example:

So Dow 21,000 less 5% is 19,950 and 2.5% is 20,475 so we'll look for that for support and the 525 drop we can call 20,500 the line that matters with 100-point bounces to 20,600 and 20,700 but I'd start shorting at 20,600 – if we even make that.  Worse would be failing to retake 20,500 – then it's almost a certainty we drop another 500.

This is happening despite us being wrong about the Dollar on Friday morning, as 99.50 did not hold and we are now at 98.90, which is down $700 per contract (/DX) at the moment but I still have faith but, if I'm right, that will be bad news for the indexes as the weak Dollar is the only thing keeping them from those 5% corrections that we think are inevitable at this point (so you may was well lay back and enjoy it – hat tip
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Falling Friday – Market Wraps Up Worst Week of Trump Error

Image result for trump don't careUtter chaos!

As noted by the GOP leadership: "There is no Plan B" to the TrumpDon'tCare Act.  Either the GOP guts health care and takes insurance away from 24M Americans and begins to defund Medicaid or, as Trump now states "Obmacare Stays."  I know – WTF?  Is it possible that the GOP has purposely put forth an unpassable bill BECAUSE they realize Obmacare is too good to kill?

Keep in mind this is just the House Vote on Health Care, which was supposed to be easy, the Senate vote is next and the changes they made in the bill could cause it to fail simply under the parliamentary rules (because they changed it to a simple majority, which caused other rules to kick in).  

If 3 GOP Senators defect, the Bill dies and, even if it passes, the Dems can tie it up in court for a long time.  Since they have a 44 vote advantage in the House (10%) and can't get them in line, it's reasonable to assume they are going to have trouble with at least 5 Senators and Senators have to Represent whole states – this is a suicide mission for Republican Senators from Democratic states.  It's very possible this battle will cost the GOP the Senate next year and the Senate gets to do all those fun investigations.  So that's the upside on the Bill – the downside is TOTAL CHAOS!

Image result for white house chaos cartoonOf course, that may be exactly what the White House wanted because, clearly, they did not have a real Health Care plan but, much more importantly, you forgot all about Trump's false accusations that Obama tapped his phone and, even though Devin Nunes jumped on a grenade for Trump and tried to convince the American People that mentions of the Trump team in some investigations justified Trump's paranioa (destroying his own reputation in the process) - no one really fell for it but, suddenly, Health Care distracted us – how convenient!  

Yesterday, I was on the Benzinga Pre-Market Report at 8:30 and they asked me how to play the Dow and I told them (20 minutes in): "Figure
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Thoughtless Thursday – TrumpDon’tCare Health Plan Gets a Vote

Image result for trump health careBig vote tonight.

If the TrumpDon'tCare Plan is approved (the CBO says it can no longer be called a health plan since the overall goal is to kill as many people as possible), then Trump's agenda is winning and the markets could leg higher.  If, on the other hand, the GOP revolts against The Donald, all Hell could break loose so ignore the politics if you want to but we're paying very close attention! 

Interestingly, the main GOP objection to TrumpDon'tCare is that it still cared about forcing Health Insurance Companies to provide minimum benefits to their customers.  That has now been removed by the White House and now the Insurance Companies don't have to do anything for anyone at any time – isn't that great?  As noted by Politico, however:

While altering the coverage requirements could help win over the Freedom Caucus members, it could drive away moderates — another coalition that House leaders need to build upon in the final 24 hours before the planned vote on Thursday. House leaders are still short of the 215 votes they need.

Image result for trump health care cartoonIt's going to be hard to bridge the gap because the bill still is not Draconian enough for the "Freedom Caucus":

Freedom Caucus members, led by Meadows, want at least some parts of Title One of the bill removed. Included in Title One are many of the Affordable Care Act's benefits, like a prohibition on insurers denying coverage over pre-existing conditions and a prohibition on lifetime and annual limits.

That's right, your pre-existing conditions can now stop you from getting coverage and, even if you are covered, there can be a cap – so don't get too sick or you'll be on your own!  Aside from leading to a great unwinding in the Health Care, Pharma and Biotech sectors, TrumpDon'tCare will put a huge burden on the bottom 99% and eat into their disposable income
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Phil's Favorites

You Have Five Choices

 

You Have Five Choices

Courtesy of

The negatives:

The US stock market is now selling for close to a record high valuation. Volatility for the S&P 500 is currently registering record low readings. Brilliant hedge fund managers like David Einhorn are ringing the alarm bells over the worship of growth stocks without earnings. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a $90 billion cash hoard, struggling to find reasonably valued assets to invest it in. Bonds are no bargain given today’s yields vs inflation, and that’s assuming rates are just steady – if they rise more quickly than e...



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Zero Hedge

Swedish Government On Verge Of Collapse After Admitting 'Accidental Leak' Of Entire Nation's Info

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Sweden’s government is being quietly rocked by a major scandal. So far the market has paid it little regard, but, as Citi warns, it may soon escalate...

Sweden appears to have accidentally leaked the details of almost all of its citizens. And now it's getting worse as the leak happened in 2015, but only emerged las...



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ValueWalk

Warren Buffett Goes Into Genius Mode!

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Check out the top times that Warren Buffett goes into Genius mode!

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Words Of Wisdom From Charlie Munger (Part 3) Want to become a better investor, reading is crucial ...

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Chart School

U.S. Dollar; Triple support test after rare 30-week decline

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

From 2011 to the start of this year, the US$ has been pretty strong, as it rallied nearly 30% in 6-years. Over the past 30-weeks, King Dollar has been rather weak.

Below looks at the US$ over the past 18-years, with 30-week performance applied-

King Dollar has declined over 9% in the last 30-weeks at (1). As one can see, this sharp of a decline in 30-weeks hasn’t taken place a ton of times since the late 1990’s. The decline has the US$ testing the bottom of a 24-month trading range and two rising support lines at the same time at (2...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Consolidating Near All-Time High Ahead of Aug 1 Fork

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly/Daily

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) slid yesterday on more profittaking, and now sits just above where it had broken above the daily chart's downchannel resistance. On the weekly chart, with last week's massive rally, the BTC/USD appears potentially to be in the late stages of a bullish flag pattern. With the August 1st fork looming, and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD tiring, BTC/USD can be expected to continue consolidating today ahead of this key date. Although the negative weekly MACD crossover has proved a false signal for now...



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Insider Scoop

3 Reasons Comcast Should Acquire Verizon, And Why This Cost Dish A Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMCSA Analyst Says 31 Million Homes Could Cut Cord On Legacy Media; New Study Shows 64% Of U.S. Households Now Stream Programs ...

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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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