Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Consumer Confidence at 11-Month High

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through August 18. The headline number of 101.1 was a solid increase from the final reading of 96.7 for July, a downward revision from 97.3. Today’s number was substantially above the Investing.com consensus of 97.0. This is the highest reading of the past 11 months.

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.

“Consumer confidence improved in August to its highest level in nearly a year, after a marginal decline in July,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of both current business and labor market conditions was considerably more favorable than last month. Short-term expectations regarding business and employment conditions, as well as personal income prospects, also improved, suggesting the possibility of a moderate pick-up in growth in the coming months.”

Putting the Latest Number in Context

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Consumer Confidence

On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 63rd percentile of all the monthly data points since June 1977, up from the 53rd percentile the previous month.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

Consumer Sentiment

And finally, let’s take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis, although a bit of spread has appeared in the second half of 2015 and start of 2016.

NFIB Optimism and Consumer Confidence





Home Prices Rose 5.1% Again Year-over-Year, Increases Continue in June

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

With today’s release of the June S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were down month over month at -0.1%. The seasonally adjusted year-over-year change has hovered between 4.4% and 5.4% for the last twelve months.

20-City Month-over-Month The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was down -0.1% from the previous month. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 5.1% year-over-year.

Investing.com had forecast a -0.1% MoM seasonally adjusted decrease and 5.2% YoY nonseasonally adjusted for the 20-city series.

Here is an excerpt of the analysis from today’s Standard & Poor’s press release.

“Home prices continued to rise across the country led by the west and the south,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10%; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation. Nationally, home prices have risen at a consistent 4.8% annual pace over the last two years without showing any signs of slowing.

Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape. Sales of existing homes are at running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market. Sales of new single family homes were at a 654,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in July, the highest rate since November 2007. Housing starts in July topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units. While the real estate sector and consumer spending are contributing to economic growth, business capital spending continues to show weakness.” [Link to source]

The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We’ve used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.

Home Price Index

For an understanding of the home price data over longer time frames, we think a real, inflation-adjusted visualization of the data is an absolute necessity. Here is the same chart as the one above adjusted for inflation using a subcomponent…
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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Wednesday, 09 March 2016, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: According to DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach, this is his favorite chart – backing his perspective that equity markets have “2% upside and 20% downside) from here. In his words: “These lines will converge…”

Date Found: Thursday, 10 March 2016, 12:46:05 AM

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Comment: Where is the End of the Rally? youtu.be/nTDtxNl4Tu8

Date Found: Sunday, 13 March 2016, 01:20:28 AM

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Comment: Who owns Hillary: youtu.be/fO-jQFKyeeI

Date Found: Monday, 14 March 2016, 12:45:02 PM

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Comment: ZH: Specifically, what Bloomberg fails to note is that as everyone else has been selling, corporations have unleashed the biggest debt-funded stock buyback spree in history, providing the natural offset to wholesale selling by virtually everyone else, and allowing the market to barely dip over the past year.

Date Found: Thursday, 17 March 2016, 01:55:41 PM

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Comment: ZHedge: These are the lowest earnings expectations since April 2015. Who needs “mother’s milk” anyway when you have The Fed, The ECB, The BoJ, and The PBOC??!! What a total farce! RTT: It is not real folks!

Date Found: Thursday, 17 March 2016, 05:40:30 PM

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Comment: Why the Fed’s Magic Trick Won’t Work | Robert P. Murphy RTT: The last 3 min is excellent. youtu.be/SNOVd8rWyG8

Date Found: Thursday, 17 March 2016, 07:35:22 PM

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Comment: As CS’ Josh Lukeman notes, the degree of hedging we’re seeing as we go higher illustrated in the CS Fear index (now at all-time highs) suggests institutional investors are not believers in the equity rally. RTT : Institutional investors have brown pants on!

Date Found: Thursday, 17 March…
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Lets Review Sandy Jadeja 84 year cycle forecast

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

lets-review-sandy-jadeja-84-year-cycle-forecastThe big cycles generally have greater volatility when they end, lets review the end of the 84 year cycle.



Reference: The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year



The man who accurately predicted four market crashes to the exact date each time has told Business Insider about three more dates to worry about.



Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst and chief market strategist at Core Spreads.


Technical analysts use historical charts to spot patterns in the markets. They cannot tell you what event will move the markets. They can only tell you when a shift is likely to happen.



And we are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018, Jadeja said.



“We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the 'Time Cycle'] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place,” he said.


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CYCLE Risk






RTT Comments: Well he has a point, if it is three times your lucky then there is one more big move coming!



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Dow Jones




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…. The examination of a losing trade is tortuous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…



Martin Zweig





Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.



Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson





…..“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..



Martin Zweig











Buyers Step Up

Courtesy of Declan.

A respectable day for markets, unwinding much of the damage caused by Friday’s selling. Volume was down, which softened the day’s buying.




The S&P had the best of the action, which was a little against expectations for Tech/Semiconductors to drive the gain.






The Nasdaq only managed half the gain, but there was still a lingering weakness with some selling into the close. The 20-day MA is acting as supply.





The Russell 2000 broke rising support on Friday and while it gained today it didn’t do enough to recover the trendline break.





I haven’t mentioned it much, but VXN volatility is looking like it’s setting up for a spike move higher. Having said that, it did likewise in early 2013 and it spent the next two years moving sideways as the Nasdaq piled on the gains.





Tomorrow is a chance for bulls to press their advantage. However, there is need for some supporting volume.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Up Another Four Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are up another four cents a piece from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $2.71 and San Francisco is the most expensive city, averaging $2.86. South Carolina has the cheapest at $1.94. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 46.98, down 0.43 from this time last week.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

Weekly Gas Prices Since 2000

The next chart is a monthly chart overlay of West Texas Light Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO).

WTIC BRENT GASO

In this monthly chart, WTIC end of day spot price closed at 46.98, down 0.43 from last week.

WTIC

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

Consumer Price Index

The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

CPI Components

Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:





S&P 500 Snapshot: Modest Three-Day Selloff Snapped

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

With the Jackson Hole drama behind us, US equity indexes had a good day today. Our benchmark S&P 500 popped up in the opening 15 minutes and then gradually rose to its 0.67% intraday high in the earl afternoon. The final two hours of trading trimmed the gain to 0.52%. Today’s advance snapped a modest three-day selloff.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.57%, down five basis points from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

S&P 500

Here is daily chart of the index. A preliminary read on the today’s volume came in at its 2016 low.

S&P 500

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

S&P 500 Snapshot





Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Note: The charts below have been updated with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Consumer Price Index.


The BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for July, released today, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target at 1.57%. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through July, is higher at 2.20%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data for its primary inflation gauge. Headline inflation for both series is conspicuously lower, largely a result of low energy costs.

The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. [Source] Note: Bolding added.

Elsewhere the Fed stresses the importance of longer-term inflation patterns, the likelihood of persistence and the importance of “core” inflation (less food and energy). Why the emphasis on core? Here is an excerpt from one of the Fed FAQs.

Finally, policymakers examine a variety of “core” inflation measures to help identify inflation trends. The most common type of core inflation measures excludes items that tend to go up and down in price dramatically or often, like food and energy items. For those items, a large price change in one period does not necessarily tend to be followed by another large change in the same direction in the following period. Although food and energy make up an important part of the budget for most households — and policymakers ultimately seek to stabilize overall consumer prices — core inflation measures that leave out items with volatile prices can be useful in assessing inflation trends. [Source]

Fed’s
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income in July

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Note: This commentary has been updated to include today’s release of the July data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts.


Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

  • Nonfarm Employment
  • Industrial Production
  • Real Retail Sales
  • Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts)

The Latest Indicator Data

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in July rose 0.45% and is up 3.2% year-over-year. When we adjust for inflation using the BEA’s PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) likewise rose 0.45%, since headline inflation as measured by the PCE Price Index was unchanged in July. The real number is up 2.4% year-over-year.

Real Personal Income

A Note on the Excluded Transfer Receipts: These are benefits received for no direct services performed. They include Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, Unemployment Assistance, and a wide range other benefits, mostly from government, but a few from businesses. Here is an illustration Transfer Receipts as a percent of Personal Income.

The Generic Big Four

The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the generic Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.

Current Assessment and Outlook

The US economy has been slow in recovering from the Great Recession, and the overall picture has been a mixed bag for well over a year and counting. Employment and Income have been relatively strong. Real Retail Sales have been weak at best over the past twelve months, and Industrial Production has essentially been in a recession, although optimists are hoping that the March low was a trough and IP may now be in recovery mode.

Here is a percent-off-high chart based on an average of the Big Four. The interim high was in November 2014 (fractionally below zero at three decimal places). The indicator primarily responsible for this decline is Industrial…
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: General Index Negative for 20th Month

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index decreased in August, down 5 points, coming in at -6.2 from -1.3 in July.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity increased in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 4.5 after a near-zero reading in July, suggesting output picked up this month.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected expansion. Demand bounced back, with the new orders index rising from -8.0 to 5.3 in August and the growth rate of orders index pushing up to 2.1, its first positive reading in nearly two years. The capacity utilization index remained only barely positive at 0.9, while the shipments index rose nearly 10 points to 9.9, with nearly a third of manufacturers reporting higher volumes of shipments this month.

Perceptions of broader business conditions remained fairly pessimistic. The general business activity index was negative for a 20th month in a row and moved down from -1.3 to -6.2. The company outlook index was largely unchanged at -2.8.

Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance:

Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.

Texas turns out a large share of the country’s production of petroleum and coal products, reflecting the significance of the region’s refining industry. Texas also produces over 10 percent of the nation’s computer and electronics products and nonmetallic mineral products, such as brick, glass and cement.

Here is a snapshot of the complete TMOS.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing

The next chart is an overlay of the General Business Activity Index and the Future Outlook Index — the outlook six months ahead.

For comparison, here is the latest…
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ValueWalk

Francis Chou: Valeant, NIRP And a test to see if you're a value investor

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Francis Chou‘s Chou Associates Fund letter for the first half ended June 30, 2016.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Dear Unitholders of Chou Associates Fund,

The net asset value ("NAVPU" or "NAV") of a Series A unit of Chou Associates Fund at June 30, 2016 was $92.66 compared to $115.50 at December 31, 2015, a d...



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Chart School

Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics has monthly data on employment by industry categories reaching back to 1939. At the highest level, all jobs are divided into two categories: Service-Providing Industries and Goods Producing Industries. The adjacent chart illustrates the ratio of the two categories since 1939.

In 1939 service providing industries employed more people than goods producing, 62.9% to 37.1%, a ratio of 1.7-to-1. World War II triggered a surge in goods producing employment and an accompanying reduction in services. But following the war, we've seen a steady tilt toward services. The ratio is now 6.3 services jobs for every goods producing job. The key drivers of this secular trend ...



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Zero Hedge

South Africa's Largest Debt Manager Halts Loans To State Firms, Rand Tumbles

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a shocking move, South Africa's largest fixed income manager has halted all lending to state-owened entities on governance concerns.

  • *FUTUREGROWTH SAYS IT CAN'T PLACE CLIENT MONEY AT RISK

As Bloomberg details,

Africa’s biggest private fixed-income money manager will stop lending money to six of South Africa’s largest state companies because it’s concerned about how they are being run, government infighting and threats to the independence of the finance ministry.

Futuregrowth Asset...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Apple Must Pay Billions for Tax Breaks in Ireland, E.U. Orders (NY Times)

The European Union on Tuesday ordered Ireland to collect $14.5 billion in unpaid taxes from Apple, a record penalty that worsened tensions with the United States over the bloc’s crackdown on sweetheart deals with global multinationals.

Dol...



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Phil's Favorites

Do You Believe There is Food Price Deflation? Mish vs. Consensus

Courtesy of Mish.

Here’s the question of the day: Do you believe there is food price deflation?

The reason I ask is the Wall Street Journal reports Food Price Deflation Cheers Consumers, Hurts Farmers, Grocers and Restaurants.

The U.S. is on track this year to post the longest stretch of falling food prices in more than 50 years, a streak that is cheering shoppers at the checkout line but putting a financial strain on farmers and grocery stores.

The trend is being fueled by an excess supply of dairy products, meat, grains and other staples and less demand for many of those same products from China and elsewhere due to the strong dollar. Lower energy costs...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

US Dollar/Yen testing important support zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar/Yen is facing a trio of potential support lines at this time with few people bullish the US$/Yen at Stocktwits. What happens at this potential support zone, could well impact the Risk On trade from now until year end.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The trend in the US$/Yen remains down for the past few months, as the YEN has been stronger than the US$. The US$/YEN remains inside of a steep falling channel over the past 10-months.

The bottom of this steep falling channel and two ot...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio -week of August 29th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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