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Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

S&P 500 Snapshot: Intraday Above 2000 and Another Record Close

Courtesy of Doug Short.

With the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium as ancient history, the rally resumed. The S&P 500 made headlines with an intraday record high above 2000, a symbolic level it breached about 40 minutes after the open. The intraday peak at 2001.95 occurred a few minutes later. The 0.68% advance to the intraday high faltered a bit during the lunch hour. The afternoon trade took place in a narrow range below the 2000 benchmark, ending at 1997.92 for a 0.48% daily gain.

Treasuries were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.39%, down 1 bp from Friday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Today’s historic levels saw reduced summer trading volume.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Median Household Income Since the Great Recession: Spotlighting the Young and Old

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Last week Sentier Research released its blockbuster report, Household Income on the Fifth Anniversary of the Economic Recovery: June 2009 to June 2014. I’ve explored the details of some of their findings in a couple of commentaries that focused on income by age, race & ethnicity, household types and educational attainment (here and here).

In this commentary I’ll focus on the improvements in real household incomes since the post-recession trough, which occurred in the summer of 2011. For openers, here is a snapshot of real median household income since 2007. I’ve scaled the vertical axis to zero for June 2009, the month that the NBER established as the start of the recovery.

In the chart above, the seasonally adjusted trough in August was 6.8% below the level in the month the recovery started. Following that low, there has been a trend of higher lows, as we begin to see an upward drift in the monthly highs beginning in June 2013. As of June 2014, the real median income has trimmed a bit over half the post-recession decline.

An Unequal Recovery: The Young, the Old and Everyone Else

When we look at the data by age cohorts, we see that the income growth during the recovery has not be distributed evenly across the generations. The adjacent table features the non-seasonally adjusted real data by age groups on the second and fifth anniversaries of the recovery. The non-seasonally adjusted second anniversary, in June 2011, was two months before the seasonally adjusted monthly trough for all households.

For a visualization of the changes, the first chart illustrates the data points for the cohorts across all three time frames. The focus is on the percent change from the 2009 recovery start. We quickly see that that the two oldest cohorts have fared best — a fact that is to a significant degree related to Social Security benefits, which enjoyed cost-of-living adjustments.

However, the trends have undergone a substantial change since mid-2011. The two youngest cohorts have seen the biggest increases in median household incomes, with the under-25 group up a whopping 10.1% over the past three years.

No doubt a key driver in the larger percent gain of the younger households is their general availability…
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Industrials: A Divergence Resembling 2007 and 2011

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Sometimes diverging momentum can be a sign of a short-term high in the markets. The Industrials ETF XLI experienced falling momentum while prices were moving higher back in 2007 & 2011 at (1), which resulted in lower prices in months to come, once support and its 200MA was broken to the downside.

At this time the bullish trend in XLI is in place, as it remains above support off the 2009 lows and above its 200-day moving average.

Of late, a divergence is taking place as momentum is falling while XLI remains above support at (2). As mentioned before, the trend remains up for XLI. With momentum heading down recently, it becomes important that XLI remains above support and its 200MA!

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A Different Look at Market Tops

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Last week the S&P pushed through to a new all-time high, recovering from a pretty minor 3.94% pullback into early August. In fact, it’s pretty remarkable that each pullback has been shallower than the last going back several years.

You may have read commentary to the effect that the lack of any serious pullback means we are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Some of the more bullish writers have gone as far as to predict that we won’t see a correction as large as 7% for at least the next several years — well into 2017. Whether it’s the plodding nature of the recovery, the Fed, the lack of good alternative investments, or valuations that have a ways to go to hit historic extremes, it doesn’t really matter. Something is different this time.

Others look at the same market and come to the opposite conclusion with some even suggesting a high likelihood of a market crash.

Human nature means that we tend to remember best our recent experiences. Does the current market look very similar to how it looked in the year leading into the market peak in 2000 or 2007? Doesn’t the last year of a bull market look much more like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears? As if neither side was too sure of itself? Certainly, the current market doesn’t look antsy about much of anything. Shouldn’t it look at least a bit antsy if we’re nearing a top? And just how do you measure ‘antsy’? The VIX is one way, but you can only track the VIX back so far in time. It was also fairly low in 1987, so it wasn’t telling us much then.

One possible way to look at ‘antsy’ would be to simply chart the percentage changes from day to day. If traders are antsy about something, that might show up as higher daily percentage swings. The chart pair below is the day to day percentage fluctuation in the Dow Industrial’s price for the year preceding the market top in 2000. The second chart of the pair is the last year of the current market.

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Understanding the CFNAI Components

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and Income
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
  • Personal Consumption and Housing
  • Sales, Orders, and Inventories

The complete list is available here in PDF format.

In today’s Chicago Fed update, we learned that three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions to the index in July, and two of the four categories increased from June. Personal Consumption and Housing continues to be the significantly underperforming category. Let’s now take a look at the historical context, focusing on the less volatile 3-month moving average of the components.

A chart overlay of the complete multi-decade span of all four categories, even if we use the three-month moving averages, is quite challenging for visual clarity:

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So here is a close-up view since 2000:

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But a snapshot of the 21st century contains only two recessions, so it’s unclear how the individual components have behaved in during the seven recessions since the 1967 starting point for this data series.

Here is a set of charts showing each of the four components since 1967. Because of the highly volatile nature of the data, the charts are based on three-month moving averages, a smoothing strategy favored by the Chicago Fed economists. I’ve also highlighted the values for the months that the NBER subsequently identified as recession starts.

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There’s a lot to digest in the individual charts. Clearly the first two (Production and Income and Employment,…
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Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Picked Up in July

Courtesy of Doug Short.

“Index shows economic growth picked up in July”: This is the headline for today’s release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.39 in July from +0.21 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions to the index in July, and two of the four categories increased from June.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.25 in July from +0.16 in June, marking its fifth consecutive reading above zero. July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.31 in July from +0.21 in June. Fifty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 32 made negative contributions. Forty-eight indicators improved from June to July, while 36 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]

Investing.com was looking for a headline index increase to 0.20.

Background on the CFNAI

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed’s website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.

The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity. I’ve added a high-low channel for the MA3 data since 2010. As we can see, the MA3 of the index hit the top of the channel in November of last year. After dipping near…
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Daily Market Commentary: Pause in Rally

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday’s action marked a balance between bulls and bears. Tech and Small Cap indices finished with indecisive doji, marking a swing trade opportunity; buy/sell break of Friday’s high/low with a stop on the flip side. The S&P and Dow closed lower, but not enough to suggest bears finished the day in control.

The losses in the S&P weren’t enough to trigger a ‘bull trap’, so the long-side play is still favoured.  Selling volume was also down on Thursday’s buying, another reason to suggest bulls have control.  Technicals remain net bullish.


The Nasdaq did try and push above its tight 3-day range, but was unable to garner much in the way of bullish momentum.  However, the broader trend is still bullish, with the August rally well established.  A ‘bull flag’ or other consolidation would be welcome, but Friday’s action doesn’t necessarily suggest this will happen now.

The Russell 2000 is best positioned to gain.  The last four days has shaped a small handle with buyer support at the 200-day MA. Given the July sell off, it remains best placed to challenge June’s high. Longs can add with confidence on a close above 1,164 with a stop on a close below 200-day MA.

Feeding the rally in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 is the rally in the Semiconductor Index. It too closed with an indecisive doji on Friday, but the rally remains on course to reach the July high of 652.  This will help the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

While the Nasdaq swing low is confirmed, the point of the bounce is not one associated with a major swing low.  Nasdaq breadth rallied from a mid-point in breadth, and looks to have a lot in common with the 2010 summer swing low. Although the Nasdaq Summation Index and Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA didn’t fall into oversold territory.

For the coming week, consider a ‘buy’ on weakness. It’s probable this rally has legs so best to take advantage. The August swing low is the line in the sand for bulls.  A push back to the 20-day and/or 50-day MA is the chance to take.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Tracking the Market with Social Media

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Trade Followers Momentum indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to confirm the uptrend after clearing its consolidation warning two weeks ago. Although the uptrend is intact, momentum from both Twitter and StockTwits is getting a bit frothy. Both are at the highest levels they’ve reached since December of 2013. In the past, peaks in the +12 to +15 range have marked short term tops. Both indicators are now showing readings above +20. This is a very overbought condition which should signal a short term top when momentum turns back down.

Support and resistance levels generated from Twitter are also starting to confirm the uptrend with new calls for 2000, 2030, and 2050 on the S&P 500 index. These tweets indicate that traders believe the current rally can reach those levels. The number of tweets near the 2000 area makes it a place where traders will likely take profit so the market should at least pause there before moving higher. Below the market the most tweeted levels are 1955 and 1905, making them support.

Breadth calculated by comparing the number of stock with strong support on Twitter and StockTwits against those with weak support has turned back up, but continues to paint a negative divergence from price. I’d like to see this indicator continue its high readings on any further rally.

Sector strength is showing a bit of rotation to safety again with almost all sectors garnering strength from the Twitter stream. A short term top has almost always been put in place in the past when all sectors were positive. This is another indication that the market may need to pause.

Overall momentum is suggesting the market should move higher, but may need to clear over bought readings before it can do so. The large number of tweets near the 2000 level on SPX makes it a likely level to consolidate recent gains before a push to 2030.


Blair Jensen is president of Trade Followers. The Trade Followers algorithm quantifies social media and creates stock market indicators that track the momentum of the crowd on Twitter and StockTwits.





Weekly Market Summary

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


US indices have risen 8 of the past 11 days. SPX, NDX and DJIA have all gained about 5%. NDX and SPX made new all-time highs and DJIA is close to doing so.

This was an incredibly quick fall and recovery to a new high. Recall that in July, fund managers had their second highest equity overweight since 2001. After every similar situation, SPX typically fell 8% over 4 weeks and then took another 6 weeks to regain all of its losses. This time: a 4% fall in 10 days with a full recovery 10 days later.

This type of strength, as we have seen before, is usually followed by further gains. Two studies follow that demonstrate this tendency well. First, Quantifiable Edges notes that SPX has now gone from a 50-day low to a 50-day high in only 10 days. How rare is this? Since 1950, it has happened only 6 times previously. Importantly, all 6 were higher 3 weeks later and the average gain (5%) was 5 times the average loss.

A second study, by Dana Lyons, comes to the same conclusion by different means. There have been 8 “v-shaped bottoms” in the past 18 months. Once SPX has returned to its previous peak (like now), downside was 1% versus an average gain of 4%. Like the first study, risk/reward is skewed strongly positive. And like the first study, price continued to run higher 3 weeks later.

The more mundane studies we shared last week reach a similar conclusion (post). First, all 4 US indices have positive crosses in their MACDs and newly rising 13-emas, a combination which has been a reliable set up for multi-month rallies.

Second, once SPX has then also closed above its 50-dma, it has usually advanced quickly higher, as we saw this week. On weakness, the 50-dma is normally support (arrows). Importantly, the prior low is usually not violated.

And third, SPY has now closed above…
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Measuring Real Wages: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics"

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier this week I updated my commentary on Five Decades of Middle Class Wages, an analysis of Real Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees. During the 21st century and especially since the end of the Great Recession, wages have clearly been stagnant.

But, as Mark Twain famously remarked, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

I was, therefore, not surprised when a reader sent me a link to a blog article entitled “Real Wage Stagnation Is a Bit of a Myth.” Seriously! The article featured a chart that included the very same earnings data series that I had used, but it came to quite the opposite conclusion:

“Contrary to popular belief, wages have been rising a bit faster than prices. In other words, real wages haven’t stagnated as widely believed, but have been moving higher, albeit at a slow pace.”

All it takes is a simple statistical manipulation to paint a smiley face on the real wage data. And what is that? Choose a tame deflator for your inflation adjustment.

Here are side-by-side charts of the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees stretching back to 1964, the year the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) initiated the series. The chart on the left is my analysis. The one on the right is the optimistic variant that claims stagnation is a “myth” (click them for larger versions).

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On the left above, I adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the deflator we commonly refer to as the CPI. This index is produced by the BLS, the same agency responsible for the monthly Establishment Survey from which the wage data is derived. The CPI is by far the most widely used index for gauging inflation. Its first cousin, the CPI-W, has been used by the government for Social Security Cost of Living Adjustments since the origin of COLAs in 1975. Another close cousin, the CPI-U-RS (an annual index) is used by the Census Bureau to…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Vitamin Shoppe Posts Lower Q2 Profit

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related VSI UPDATE: Credit Suisse Upgrades GNC UPDATE: Longbow Research Reiterates On Vitamin Shoppe Following 2Q EPS Beat

Vitamin Shoppe (NYSE: VSI) reported a 7.3% drop in its second-quarter profit and announced a $100 million share repurchase program.

The North Bergen, New Jersey-based company posted a quarterly profit of $16.9 million, or $0.55 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $18.3 million, or $0.60 per share. Exclu...



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Zero Hedge

Meet ICREACH: The NSA's Own Secret "Google"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Ryan Gallagher, originally posted at The Intercept,

The National Security Agency is secretly providing data to nearly two dozen U.S. government agencies with a “Google-like” search engine built to share more than 850 billion records about phone calls, emails, cellphone locations, and internet chats, according to classified documents obtained by The Intercept.

The documents provide the first definitive evidence that the NSA has for years made massive amounts of surveillance data directly accessible to domestic law enforcement agencies. Planning document...



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Phil's Favorites

Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong

Courtesy of Mish.

Given misinformation and outright lies by all involved, it's important to consider the both sides of the story.

Military Endgame?

Jane's Defense claims Ukrainian Military Moves to Endgame. Ukrainian troops have continued their offensive aimed at clearing pro-Russian rebels from the Donetsk and Lugansk regions despite strong resistance.

Both the Ukrainian and rebel forces are using tracked armour, heavy artillery, and rockets in the heaviest fighting seen in Europe since the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s.

The operation by Ukrainian troops, underway for more than a month, has pushed deep into rebel-held regions, with fighting now reported in the suburbs of the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk for several days. Repo...



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Chart School

Daily Market Commentary: Russell 2000 Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't a whole lot of action in the indices today.  The only index to come out with anything was the Russell 2000. I thought we would have seen today's gain yesterday, but it was welcome all the same. Today's gain for the Russell 2000 also resulted in a return of the net bullish technical picture.


Of the quiet action, the Semiconductor Index didn't follow through on the bearish engulfing pattern, although there wasn't a negation of it either.  I suspect this is still a shorting opportunity for the near term and today's tight intraday range allows for a narrowing of the stop placement (to a few points above today's high).

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.

From the company profile:

“TIBANNE Co.Ltd. ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Up next for bulls, a big test of conviction

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Bulls are having their way as summer draws to a close. Indeed, U.S. stocks and bonds seem to be the best and safest place to invest in a global economy that is at once hopeful and cautious, with lots of available cash hunting for attractive returns. But now the S&P 500 must deal with the ominous 2,000 level.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Bullish investors continue to ride the way of improved...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of our weekly newsletter is available now. Click on Stock World Weekly and sign in with your user name and password. (Or take a free trial!)

#120692880 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Option Review

CME Group Put Options Active

Options volume on the provider of futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals and alternative investment products is well above average on Thursday morning, due in large part to a sizable put spread initiated in the 19Sep’14 expiry contracts. Shares in CME Group (Ticker: CME) are up slightly on the day, trading 0.25% higher at $74.34 as of the time of this writing.

The largest trade on CME today appears to be a bear put spread in which roughly 1,500 of the 19Sep’14 74.0 strike puts were purchased at a premium of $1.44 each against the sale of the same number of t...



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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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