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S&P 500 Snapshot: A New Record Above 2000

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In yesterday’s update I asked the question “Will the S&P 500 move back above 2000 prior to the extended Labor Day weekend?” It did indeed, closing today at a record high at 2003.37. The index finished the month with a gain of 3.77% gain, the biggest monthly advance since February’s 4.31% and the best August since the 6.07% surge in 2000.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.35%, up 1 bp from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

Here is a monthly chart of the index. Trading volume for the month was the lowest in nearly 10 years.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Silver narrow spread on solid volume

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

silver-narrow-spread-on-solid-volumeKeep an eye on Silver (SLV) the next few weeks, a change looks likely!

More from RTT Tv



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss.  Never average losses.  Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”..

Jesse Livermore


..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..

Benjamin Franklin








Getting Technical: Weekend Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here’s the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Professional Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the U.S. market in a series of weekly charts. Here is his update on the S&P 500.


This week, the S&P 500 continued its ascension, on improving but still near-resistance momentum and on below-average volume. The index is now 193% above the bottom of 2009 and 28% above the top of 2007.

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Click for a sharper image

Note: For newcomers to technical analysis, here are brief explanations for the two key indicators that Serge features:

  • ROC (Price Rate of Change)
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index)

© Serge Perreault CPA Inc.





S&P 500 Snapshot: A New Record Above 2000

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In yesterday’s update I asked the question “Will the S&P 500 move back above 2000 prior to the extended Labor Day weekend?” I did indeed, closing today at a record high at 2003.37. The index finished the month with a gain of 3.77% gain, the biggest monthly advance since February’s 4.31% and the best August since the 6.07% surge in 2000.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.35%, up 1 bp from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

Here is a monthly chart of the index. Trading volume for the month was the lowest in nearly 10 years.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Click to View
Click for a larger image





August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Bounced Back

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August came in at 82.5, a bounce back from the 79.2 preliminary reading and its highest level since the April final. Today’s number topped the Investing.com forecast of 80.1.

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. I’ve highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

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Click for a larger image

To put today’s report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is now 3 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 2 percent below the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 40th percentile of the 440 monthly data points in this series.

The Michigan average since its inception is 85.1. During non-recessionary years the average is 87.4. The average during the five recessions is 69.3. So the latest sentiment number puts us 13.2 points above the average recession mindset and 4.9 points below the non-recession average.

Note that this indicator is somewhat volatile with a 3.1 point absolute average monthly change. The latest month is a somewhat smaller 0.7 point change. For a visual sense of the volatility, here is a chart with the monthly data and a three-month moving average.

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For the sake of comparison, here is a chart of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (monthly update here). The Conference Board Index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan Index.

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And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB Business Optimism Index (monthly update here).

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The general trend in the Michigan Sentiment Index since the Financial Crisis lows has been one of slow improvement. However, it has been range bound since 2012, hovering between 72 and 85. It is currently in the upper half of the range.





A Global Passive Benchmark with ETFs and Factor Tilts

Courtesy of Doug Short.

“One way to test our thinking would be to ask the question in reverse: If your index manager reliably delivered the full market return with no more than market risk for a fee of just 5 bps, would you be willing to switch to active performance managers who charge exponentially more and produce unpredictably varying results, falling short of their chosen benchmarks nearly twice as often as they outperform—and when they fall short, losing 50% more than they gain when they outperform? The question answers itself.” – Charles Ellis, “The Rise and Fall of Performance Investing

Passive Aggressive

In a recent article published in Financial Analysts Journal, Charles Ellis makes an excellent case for the death of active management. Ellis asserts that the efficiency of a market is a function of the number and quality of active, informed investors at work in the market at any time. As more investors with increasingly deep educational backgrounds armed with mountains of data and obscene amounts of computational horsepower enter the market seeking inefficiencies, they will eventually eliminate all of the inefficiencies they so diligently pursue.

Plenty of literature supports this view. Ellis himself cites a seminal study by Fama which concluded that,

“Active management in aggregate is a zero-sum game—before costs. . . . After costs, only the top 3% of managers produce a return that indicates they have sufficient skill to just cover their costs, which means that going for- ward, and despite extraordinary past returns, even the top performers are expected to be only about as good as a low-cost passive index fund. The other 97% can be expected to do worse.”

Two recent studies (here and here) by Blake et. al. sponsored by the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School in London further bolster the results from Fama. They applied a more rigorous methodology called bootstrapping, which allowed the authors to compare actual mutual fund returns to a distribution of returns which might have been expected purely as a result of random chance. Their results are in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

To interpret this chart note the green and blue curves. The blue curve charts the results of the robust bootstrap test, and describes the distribution of returns that would be expected purely due to random chance. The green curve describes the observed…
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The Latest on Real Disposable Income Per Capita

Courtesy of Doug Short.

With this morning’s release of the July Personal Incomes and Outlays we can now take a closer look at “Real” Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.

The July nominal 0.07% month-over-month increase shrinks to -0.01% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.49% nominal and 1.90% real.

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The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2009 for inflation adjustment. But the 2009 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let’s compare the nominal and real growth in per capita disposable income since 2000. Do you recall what you were doing on New Year’s Eve at the turn of the millennium? Nominal disposable income is up 60.3% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up only 20.7%.

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Click for a larger image

Here is a closer look at the real series since 2007.

Year-Over-Year DPI Per Capita

Let’s take one more look at real DPI per capita, this time focusing on the year-over-year percent change since the beginning of this monthly series in 1959. I’ve highlighted the value for the months when recessions start to help us evaluate the recession risk for the current level.

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Of the eight recessions since 1959, five started with a YoY number higher than the current reading. However, the volatility of Real DPI militates against putting very much emphasis on this metric. I’ve highlighted a number of conspicuous tax planning blips as well as Microsoft’s big dividend payout in 2004.

Suffice to say that we need this indicator to show continuing improvement in the months ahead.

The Consumption versus Savings Conflict

The US is a consumer-driven economy, as is evident from the percent share of GDP held by Personal Consumption Expenditures.


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Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages I track after the close of the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling “invested” — unchanged from last month. One of the five of the Ivy Portfolio ETFs, the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC), signals “cash”, unchanged from last month.

If a position is less than 2% from a signal, it is highlighted in yellow.


Month-End Preview Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, for followers of a moving average strategy, the general practice is to make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not based on a broad index. Even if you’re investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard’s VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment, which is not factored into the index closes.

The Ivy Portfolio

The second of the three adjacent tables previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio.

I’ve also included (third table) the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests I’ve received to include this slightly longer timeframe.


After the end-of-month market close, I’ll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.

The bottom line, as I’ve pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They’re not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and have captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.





Would you buy this stock?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

would-you-buy-this-stockThere is evidence that demand is overcoming supply, and a change of behavior is very near.

Symbol: HL
Sector: Silver stock
Name: Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE)

Price is still in a trading range, so the battle of supply (Bears) and demand (Bulls) is not over, but as you can see (right hand side of chart) the waves up (blue dots) are attracting more volume than the waves down (red dots). This is strength and demand overcoming supply. After a strong down move supply does dry up, all those that have sold, are very close to being done! Soon the bulls will have a chance to push prices higher. Look like accumulation, and once accumulation is completed prices can be expected to be marked up. However to be sure that demand has control wait for prices to break over resistance, but do keep this stock on your watch list.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
HL



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Being in the market at all times is not the key to profits. Being in the market when there is a clear, unconfused technical signal, and the trader’s judgment is not swayed by emotion, is the method for trading success”..

Richard D Wyckoff


..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..

Robert G Allen








Daily Market Commentary: Light Losses in Indices

Courtesy of Declan.

Charts are turning into a scatter plot of doji. Today’s losses didn’t violate support and trading volume was light. Little to worry about here.

The Russell 2000 took the largest loss, but it’s secure above its 50-day MA. The index is trading within a rising channel with a number of support levels, including the 50-day MA, to look too.

The S&P is holding above 1,987 support and technicals are in good shape. Today’s action is a chance for bulls to add or initiate a position. Stops go a close below 1,987.

The Nasdaq has room to give up a little more before it comes back to support. Technicals are also in good shape too.

The semiconductor index managed to finish with a gain as it held yesterday’s lows on early weakness.  This is also good news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

For Friday, look for further upside from the semiconductor index. Near term traders can look to the S&P which may find love at 1,987. No short candidates.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 2nd, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I've updated the accompanying charts with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Consumer Price Index.

The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for July shows core inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.47%, but for the past four months this indicator has hovered above its narrow range of the previous 12 months. The latest Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through July, is higher at 1.86%. The Fed is on record as using PCE as its primary inflation gauge.

The ...

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Zero Hedge

British Pound Volatility Surges Most Since 2008 As Scottish Referendum "Yes" Vote Looms

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we explained previously, the market appeared woefully under-priced for the potential risk of a Scottish "yes" vote. However, this weekend saw the margin between 'yes' and 'no' voters narrowed dramatically (53% "No" vs 47% "Yes" - a 6-point spread now versus a 14 point spread just 2 weeks ago). UK Gilt yields are higher, GBP is falling (its lowest since March) and implied volatility has spiked by the most since 2008 as hedgers pile in, now suddenly fearful.

 ...



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Phil's Favorites

France Needs a "Thatcher Moment" But First a Depression

Courtesy of Mish.

It is amusing reading day in and day out the Keynesian cure for what ails Europe, especially France.

Consider France. Public spending amounts to 57% of French GDP, yet Keynesians want still more. The sad irony is that 100% would not be enough. In fact, it would make matters worse.

France suffers from too much government spending and too much government interference everywhere one looks.

The Problem

On Sunday, in Eurozone Currency Dispute Intensifies: France Wants More ECB Action to Correct Overvalued Euro, Germany Doesn't I summed up the problem.
Inflation Won't Cure France

Contrary to popular belief, inflation will not spur consumer spending. Nor will inflat...



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Insider Scoop

NXP To Supply Apple With Mobile Payment Chips

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NXPI Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs Morning Market Movers

NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ: NXPI) gained three percent in pre-market trading Friday on a report it's providing wireless chips to the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 6, enabling a mobile payment system.

The Netherlands-based semiconductor company makes so-called Near Field Communications chips that smartphones use to communic...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Click on this link and use your PSW user name and password to log in. Or take a free trial. 

Enjoy!

...

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Option Review

Puts Active On Buffalo Wild Wings

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Ticker: BWLD) shares are in positive territory in early-afternoon trading on Thursday, reversing earlier losses to stand up 0.50% on the session at $148.50 as of 12:15 pm ET. Options volume on the restaurant chain is running approximately three times the daily average level due to heavy put activity in the October expiry contracts. It looks like one or more traders are buying the Oct 140/145 put spread at a net premium of roughly $1.45 per contract. As of the time of this writing, the spread has traded approximately 3,000 times against very little open interest at either striking price. The put spread may be a hedge to protect a long stock position against a roughly 6% pullback in the price of the underlying through October expiration, or an outright bearish play anticipating a dip in BWLD shares in the next couple of months. The spread makes money at expiration if shares in BWLD decline 3.3% from the current price of $148.50 to breach the breakeven point...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Gradient Senior Analyst Nicholas Yee reports on six companies that are using a variety of techniques to shift pretax profits to lower-tax areas. Featured in this USA Today, article, the companies include CELG, ALTR, VMW, NVDA, LRCX, and SNPS.

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Excerpt:

Nobody likes to pay taxes. But some companies are taking cutting their tax bil...



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Digital Currencies

Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.

From the company profile:

“TIBANNE Co.Ltd. ...



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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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