Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Hotflation Sparks Gold Surge, Dollar Purge, Stock Splurge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Before we start, let's summarize what we learned today (courtesy of @Lee_Saks)

  • Yields: many many rate hikes

  • Dollar: no rate hikes

  • Stocks: mmm maybe some rate hikes

  • Gold: we blew up the fed., no rate hikes.

Anyone else feel like the financial system is doing this again…

Futures show today's fun-and-games best…

Nasdaq futures were up 3% off the CPI-crash lows…

Nasdaq and Small Caps were up almost 2% today!!

S&P retook the 2700 level…

And The Dow closed above its 50% retracement of the losses… That is a 600-point swing from the lows to the highs today!

This is the 4th short-squeeze day in a row – and today's squeeze was the biggest since Feb 2017…

Risk-Parity funds are not exactly rebounding from their losses…

VIX closed below 20 again (after topping 25 intraday)… yay!!!

The belly of the curve was hardest hit today with 5Y up 9bps and the short-and and long-end up around 6bps…

10Y broke out to its highest since Jan 2014…almost reaching 2.92% today…stocks now love higher rates?

Expectations for more rate-hikes in 2018 picked up notably…

The Dollar Index spiked on CPI but then collapsed…BBDXY is down 4 days in a row, today was worst day for USD since The Mnuchin Massacre

As USDJPY tumbled today, so Gold spiked…

Reverting back to its more normal highly negative correlation regime (after briefly going positive in the last two weeks)…

For a little context, since The Fed hiked rates in December, The Dow managed to get green again today, the long-bond is a bloodbath (down 6%) and gold has soared 9%…

Thanks to a weak dollar, commodities surged with crude spiking after inventory data (ignoring production data)…

Big day for Cryptos today, as South Korean backpedalling on bans sent most of the major surging…

Notably, as the dollar tumbled both gold and bitcoin were bid…

Finally, we noted that Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model has already plunged from a 5.4% estimate to 3.25% today… just as it always does…





Defense of 200-day MAs Continue

Courtesy of Declan

Markets continued their advance after successfully bouncing off their 200-day MAs. While indices play defense and edge small gains they are in a position to gradually attract fresh buyers.
 


The Nasdaq edged slightly bigger gains on the day as it makes its way back to its first overhead test of its 50-day MA. Assuming the index can hold on to the recovery above channel support it will be working off a 'bear trap' -  a good place to position stops. The continued relative outperformance of the Nasdaq to its peers will also help.
 


The Russell 2000 hasn't put a foot wrong since bouncing off its 200-day MA but it took another tick lower in relative performance which leaves it vulnerable should a fresh round of selling kicks off.
 


For tomorrow, bulls will want to maintain the momentum of small, steady gains. There is plenty of lost ground to make up but there will be no shortage of patience given the big gains posted over the course of this bull market. If the day starts weak or fails to follow through after the opening half hour then look for a down day which could be the start of a low retest.
 





An Unprecedented Decline

 

An Unprecedented Decline

Courtesy of 

Conventional wisdom goes that tops are a process. This makes sense when you think about market psychology. In a rising market, every pullback is bought, which conditions us to expect future dips to behave like previous ones. But eventually, bounces are met with less enthusiasm and the rallying cry of buy the dip morphs into sell the rip. This typically plays out over weeks and months because in a bull market, investor psychology doesn’t stop on a dime, but rather it turns around like a cruise ship. The 1969 top provides a good visual of what this looks like.

Markets usually to start roll over before they fall through the elevator shaft.

By October 1929, the Dow was already 30% off its August highs and had spent more than a month below its 50-day moving average. On October 18, 1987, the Friday before the crash, the Dow was 18% lower than its August highs and again, had spent a few weeks below its 50-day moving average. I don’t believe the 50-day is some magic line that is any more important than the 20-day, I just use it here to make the point that at previous market tops, there was some deterioration before a vertical plunge lower.

This time, there was very little warning. Now, what just happened is nothing compared to the crashes of 1929 and 1987, but the recent move is unprecedented in terms of how quickly stocks fell from an all-time high. CTAs – which are expected to provide protection in a down market – didn’t have time to react, due to the nature of the decline. The CTA index experienced its worst 5-day return since 2007.

On January 26th, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high. On Thursday, nine days later, it closed more than 10% below those highs. This is the first time ever (going back to 1900) that the Dow closed at an all-time high and declined 10% over the next nine days (1928 saw an all-time high then declined 9% in nine days).

The V-top we just experienced is a great reminder that anything can happen, and just because something has never happened doesn’t mean it can’t.…
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Markets ‘Not’ In Turmoil: Dow Jumps Over 400 Points Amid Record Low Liquidity

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

If you chose "Tradable Bottom" as your CNBC-Bingo word-of-the-day… You Won!!

Having been up almost 400 points from its Friday cash close, Dow futures plunged back into the red, perhaps accelerated by Ray Dalio's dismal diatribe, amid chaotic swings and the lowest market liquidity ever seen. But that did not last as the machines dragged stocks back up – The Dow up over 500 points to a 50% retrace of its Volocaust losses… before running out of steam…

Bull Not Yet Broken pic.twitter.com/7AYngqJIhE

— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) February 12, 2018

As Nanex's Eric Scott Hunsader notes, the last week has seen liquidity levels for S&P futures - the most liquid equity security in the world - collapse to record lows, far worse than during the peak of the crisis in 08…

The initial gap open was sold, then panic-bid after going red but an ugly MoC picture sparked some selling late on…

Futures show the overnight pump and dump…

The S&P 500 broke back above its 100DMA…

This is the biggest 2-day ramp since Brexit (June 2016) when the S&P also tested its 200DMA…

Notably, The Dow and S&P remain in the red YTD (Nasdaq green)…

VIX fell back below 25…

But Small Cap vol is coming back fastest…

While "The Fear Index" faded, the Fear-and-Greed Index remains stuck at Extreme Fear…

It seems 'buybacks' were back in vogue as AAPL soared almost 5%!! the most since Feb 2017… In fact the mega tech firms are up 6 to 9% off the Friday lows…



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A Warning Shot For Passive Investing: “That Wasn’t ‘The Crash’”

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Last week, investors received a “warning shot” about the dangers of “passive indexing.” 

While the idea of “passive indexing” sounds harmless enough, we have spilled a lot of ink on this site digging into the relative dangers of it.

The biggest risk to investors is when “passive indexers” turn into “panic sellers.” 

We witnessed it last week.

The “sell off” proved our previous premise of the flaws of “passive investing.”

“While it is believed ETF investors have become ‘passive,’ the reality is they have simply become ‘active’ investors in a different form. As the markets decline, there will be a slow realization ‘this decline’ is something more than a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity. As losses mount, the anxiety of those ‘losses’ mounts until individuals seek to ‘avert further loss’ by selling.”

I have also stated that while “robo-advisors” are the new “shiny toy” for the markets to play with, and inexperienced investors to be lured into, when a crash does come, individuals will not be willing to just “ride it out.” To wit:

“The websites of two of the country’s biggest robo-advisers — Wealthfront Inc. and Betterment LLC — crashed on Monday as the S&P 500 Index sank. Complaints quickly spread across Reddit and other internet sites from people who had trouble logging onto their accounts.”

Yeah….it’s that psychology thing.

Individuals just simply refuse to act “rationally” by holding their investments as they watch losses mount.

This behavioral bias of investors is one of the most serious risks arising from ETFs as the concentration of too much capital in too few places. But this concentration risk in ETF’s is not the first time this has occurred:

  • In the early 70’s it was the “Nifty Fifty” stocks,
  • Then Mexican and Argentine bonds a few years after that
  • “Portfolio Insurance” was the “thing” in the mid -80’s
  • Dot.com anything was a great investment in 1999
  • Real estate has been a boom/bust cycle roughly every other decade, but 2006 was a doozy
  • Today, it’s ETF’s and Bitcoin

Risk concentration always seems rational at the beginning, and the initial…
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Dow Soars Over 500 Points – Retraces 50% Of Volocaust Plunge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Markets 'not' in turmoil?

Almost 1400 points 'off the lows'…

VIX remains above 25 for now…

What happens next?





It Was An “Extraordinary Week in Equity Volatility”: Here It Is In Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While last week's volmageddon may have subsided, its reveberations remain with many traders – certainly the co-head of equity trading at Goldman Sachs – uncertain  if last Monday's VIX spike was a one off event or the precursor to something far greater.

And while the events from last week are still fresh in everyone's mind, Deutsche Bank's derivatives team has laid out  some of the most notable moves in volatility during what the German bank dubbed an "Extraordinary Week in Equity Volatility." Here is a summary.

  • In February alone, we've now seen more 2% moves (all down) than in the past 7 quarters combined.
  • Monday saw a disproportionate move in the weighted average VIX futures given the SPX return, due to rebalancing of inverse and levered VIX ETPs
  • VIX vol-of-vol hit its highest level ever as the weighted average future almost doubled over the day
  • SPX skew steepened considerably on Monday, the biggest move in over 15 years
  • SPX implied vols had an outside move vs. most other underlyings including small cap vol, credit, and even weighted average single-stock implied volatility
  • Although SPX implied vols are higher than small cap vol, longer-dated vols are lower.
  • Implied correlations spiked higher before finally coming back, and cross asset correlations have started to roll, but were at recent highs across equities, dollar down, rates up, and commodities.

And here is the visual support of the above observations:

The number of 2% SPX moves in February alone are greater than in the past 7 quarters combined, while Monday’s move saw a disproportionate move in the weighted average VIX futures due to rebalancing of inverse and levered VIX ETPs

The volatility of VIX (vol-of-vol) hit its highest level ever as the weighted average future almost doubled over the day; at the same time SPX skew steepened considerably on Monday, the biggest one-day move in 17 years

SPX vols had an outside move vs. other underlyings like IWM and credit spreads…

and weighted average single stock volatility of
continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Feb 11, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The non stop up, low volatility market appears to finally be done with.   For nearly a year and a half it’s been rare to see even a down 0.3% day, forget the more normal 0.5%, 0.7%, heck 1% down days.    A lot of decades long records were broken in that time in terms of volatility, and for anyone trying to trade both sides of the tape and not just “up” it was a very strange period.   Finally some volatility has returned.  The S&P 500 had only closed below the 20 day moving average TWICE in half a year – very head scratching.  Finally that changed.  Stuff like this changed Monday:

The S&P 500 had gone 406 sessions without such a decline, marking the longest period without a 5% pullback in 20 years.

Entering this past week the market was extremely oversold – so it was not so much a question of would there be a rally early in the week.  But what would happen AFTER the rally.  So many had been conditioned to buy ANY dip as bulls were bullet proof for so long.   So a few surprising things this week – (a) Monday was really bad even though markets were extremely oversold; that’s certainly different than any recent behavior.   The oversold rally finally came Tuesday.  But (b) instead of a straight shot back up to the moon as many have come to expect – another significant decline followed Thursday, trapping many of those who “buy every dip because you get rewarded”.  So that is also a change in character.   There was a nice rally Friday afternoon but at this point we definitely have a different market than we’ve seen since Election night 2016.  Which at least for us market commentators – makes for a lot more interesting writing!

Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab, noted that stocks have “been going almost straight up since the start of the year,” which meant a pullback was both “expected and healthy” in his


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Volatility Breakout As Indices Successfully Test 200-day MAs

Courtesy of Declan

The story of volatility has been overplayed the past week but this has as much to do about the general lack of volatility since the market lows of 2009. February has the potential – although there is plenty of time left to change this – of marking a shift towards a period of high volatility comparable to that of 2008. It doesn't necessarily mean markets will crash as they did in 2009 but it could be a rocky ride for those over trading their accounts.
 


What this meant for markets were positive tests of 200-day MAs and slower support trendlines. The Russell 2000 made a couple of successful spike low tests of the 200-day MA. If you are prepared to use a wide protective stop (which means a small position) then buyers could start building into a position on the assumption this is just a larger than an expected pullback, made to look worse given the nature of perpetual small gains during 2017. If you are following my buyers guide based on the relationship of the index to its 200-day MA, then there is still some way to go.
 


The Dow was an index which finished Friday resting neatly on a rising support line. Friday was so volatile it transversed the entire range and then some of one of the rising channels from 2017. Volume climbed to register as accumulation – a reasonable sign of a possible capitulation by 'weak hands'. I would like to see relative market performance (vs Tech and Small Caps) pick up but it's not a bad start.
 


The S&P made a solid spike low at its 200-day MA. As with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, there was a spike in accumulation. While wannabe buyers may feel they have missed the chance at the 200-day MA there will probably be another opportunity when markets look to retest Friday's lows. Bulls will want traders to fight back on any push into Friday's lows.
 


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Investing Success with Ney Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Richard Ney logic compliments Richard Wyckoff logic.

More from RTT Tv


 

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successful for 70+ years.

Investing Quotes…

.."TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles." ..
~ William D Gann

…"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "…
~ John Templeton

.."Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it"..
~ Warren Buffett

..“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible”..
~ Bernard Baruch


..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..
~ Bernard Baruch





 
 
 

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The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar - 02-21-18

 

The PhilStockWorld Weekly Webinar - 02-21-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:45 Checking on the Markets
00:03:30 Metals Charts
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Zero Hedge

Gartman: "Bloomberg Has Damaged Our Reputation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One day after we reported that "Dennis Gartman Blows Up With Investment In Riot Blockchain", Bloomberg followed up with a virtually identical article, titled "Risky crypto bet blows up Dennis Gartman's retirement account."

And yet, oddly, despite being one of the most read features on Bloomberg this morning, the title was surprisingly changed, to the more bland "...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Drops Back Below $10k, Catches Down To Nasdaq

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After its 100% bounce off the early Feb lows, Bitcoin has slipped back below $10,000 this morning...

Catching down to Nasdaq's flatline from Friday...

Bitcoin is back to unchanged for February...

...

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ValueWalk

Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Jack Ma, Larry Ellison, Bill Gates, Charlie Munger Etc on Education - In their Own Words

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

See what the world’s most successful dropouts think about education. Several are illiterate. Re-evaluate your opinion on learning, knowledge, and success by seeing Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Jack Ma, Robert De Niro, Larry Ellison, Bill Gates, Charlie Munger, Beatrix Potter, Chris Dawson who can’t write, Micheal Dell, Felix Dennis, Peter Thiel, Thomas Edison, Robert Kiyosaki, Richard Branson and others – reveal their views on the school system and learning.

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Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • BMO Capital raised the price target for Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) from $191 to $213. Home Depot shares closed at $183.06 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) price target from $106 to $110. Synopsys shares closed at $88.46 on Wednesday.
  • Imperial Capital increased Qualys Inc (NASDAQ: QLYS) price target from $62 to $83. Qualys shares closed at $72.15 on Wednesday.
  • KeyBanc boosted the price target for GrubHub Inc (NYSE: ...


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Chart School

Sellers Come In But Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan

Markets were set up for sellers with most indices experiencing broad selling. However, the one index which looked set up best for shorts - the Semiconductor Index - actually managed to gain.  Anyone taking up Friday's short in the latter Index will have been stopped out but another shorting opportunity may have presented itself. Technicals haven't returned to becoming net bullish but only the ADX remains to shift.
 


The S&P eased a little lower but didn't return below what was channel support. Tec...



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Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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