Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

S&P ‘Bull Trap’ Becomes A ‘Bear Trap’

Courtesy of Declan

As this rally has often done, just as you expect a reversal to start, bulls come in (hard) to bid up the market. The S&P had the clearest switch as it moved from a 'bull trap' to a 'bear trap'. If it can post a break of 2,597 it will have little to stop it; in such a scenario watch for a fresh MACD 'buy' which would confirm recent losses as a pullback 'buy' opportunity. Stops on a loss of 2,557.
 


More impressive was the recovery in the Russell 2000. I'm not sure it has done enough to consume what will be plentiful supply all the way to 1,515.  Despite the 1.5% gain there wasn't a significant improvement in technicals. There will not have been many longs to have taken a punt on the drift below the 50-day MA so much will depend on the strength of the short squeeze -  today was a good start.
 


The Nasdaq didn't disappoint. It was the safest long trade and despite the morning gap it was able to post additional gains. Upper channel resistance remains the upside target. Today's volume registers as confirmed accumulation.
 

The Dow Jones only managed a weak bounce but the telegraphed 'buy' at support should have survived a stop test.
 


Today's action was a useful start. Key to tomorrow will be closing in the upper part of today's intraday range – irrespective of how much ground it gives up over the course of the day.





Bears Turn The Screw

Courtesy of Declan

The Russell 2000 was again under pressure as it shed another 0.5%. The Russell 2000 now trades below its 50-day MA despite recovering some of today's intraday losses. It looks like controlled selling with an artificial prop to prevent a rout. The 200-day MA is the next port of call but a 1% loss of more will bring sellers in fast. Technicals are weak but not oversold.
 

The S&P looks to have confirmed a 'bull trap' with a return inside the prior rising channel. Such action typically results in a move back to rising channel support.  First port of call will be the 50-day MA.
 


The Nasdaq is holding up better than either Small and Large Caps with relative performance ahead of the curve although it has a MACD trigger 'sell' to work off.
 


The aggressive long in the Dow Jones isn't looking so great. It's still hanging on to support but after a day like yesterday it really should have closed higher. With the S&P already back inside its former rising channel I would be looking for the Dow Jones Index to do the same.
 


For tomorrow, look for an acceleration of selling in the Russell 2000, a drop inside the former channel for the Dow Jones and drip losses in the S&P. If premarket suggest bulls are going to be in control (e.g. a gap higher) then the Nasdaq may be the better index to trade. However, if the S&P can gain enough to bring itself to challenge the 'bull trap' then it will also be a good long trade (in essence, switching from a current 'bull trap' to a 'bear trap').
 





Bulls Able To Recover Early Losses

Courtesy of Declan

Another day where bulls had to dig deep to make back early losses but there was little more beyond that.

The Russell 2000 remains the index most feeling the pressure. It's trading below the 50-day MA but hasn't experienced the kind of day where longs will feel pressured to sell. Some traders may take an aggressive long with stops below 1,463 with the index hugging support of the (failing) 'bull flag' – although it doesn't look a particularly attractive trade. Technicals are all net negative and relative performance is very poor (for Small Caps).
 

A better punt for longs might be the Dow Jones Industrial average. It's resting on former channel resistance-now-support. Volume action since August has strongly favoured accumulation and the price trend is solidly bullish – only relative performance is a bit of a non-entity.
 


The Nasdaq is using its 20-day MA to lean on. Narrow doji just above this support on low volume is healthy action. There is a MACD trigger 'sell' to monitor although it's well above the bullish zero line. Other Technicals look okay.
 


I would say watch the Volatility Index but for 2012 through to 2015 it did very little when it looked like it would spike and the market went on a charge.
 


For tomorrow, the Dow Jones Index might give longs something to work. Shorts can still linger around the Russell 2000 as any selling is likely to accelerate as a sense of panic could start to creep in.
 





Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Despite Intraday Recovery

Courtesy of Declan

The index-to-watch for Monday was the Russell 2000 and while it didn't really excite it did suffer a net bearish turn in technicals. On the positive front, it held on to its 50-day MA for a third day in a row. There may still be enough for bulls to reverse the bearish technicals but there is little room for maneuver.
 


The S&P is able to mount a defense of former resistance turned support using the convergence with the 20-day MA as the bullish kicker.  Volume climbed in bullish accumulation.
 


The Nasdaq remains inside its rising channel and is on course to tag rising channel resistance. There was a 'sell' trigger in the MACD but today's engulfing pattern of Friday's intraday range is bullish.
 


The Semiconductor Index is doing its best Bitcoin impression as it makes back some of last week's losses. Technicals have started to weaken with 'sell' triggers in the MACD and CCI.
 


For tomorrow, keep an eye on the Russell 2000 and play for a bounce off support in the S&P.





Dow Closes Green: GE Crashes, Bitcoin Bounces, & Junk Bonds Suffer Record Outflows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Baahhhhh…

The day started off with the 4th down day in a row for Japanese stocks…the biggest drop since April.

It was quite a day for a few key assets…

GE collapsed…

Chipotle crashed then ripped back…

EM Debt has been pummeled…

Biotechs puked…

Bitcoin was battered then bounced…

And then there's Roku… $18.42 to $47.49 in 3 days…

But none of that matters silly – the Dow was green

VIX ended higher on the day but was clubbed likje a baby seal at the US open…

Small Caps lagged but are glued to their 50DMA…

Futures show the ramp at the US equity open…

Thanks to an epic rip at the open in USDJPY…

JNK (HY Bond ETF) has seen outflows for 5 days straight with Friday among the biggest outflows on record… (HYG has seen outflows on 10 of the last 12 days)

And HY remains entirely decoupled from stocks…

HYG held at its lows…

Treasury yields were mixed with the long-end outperforming (30Y -1.5bps) and the short-end weak (2Y +3bps)…

10Y ramped back to the 2.40% Maginot Line…

With a reversion to the flattening trend…

The Dollar Index rebounded modestly today but was trendless…

Crude flatlined on the day but copper and silver saw a panic-buying algo strike around 0830ET

Gold never jumped on Silver's surge…

And Copper's outperformance continues to signal 3.00% 10Y yield…





Nikkei- Topping pattern at a critical price point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Nikkei 225 now finds itself at its “Half Way” point of the 20-year crash, based up 1989 highs and 2009 lows. Could it be creating a topping pattern or major reversal at a critical price point? What this important index does at a key price zone could end up impacting stocks in the states and around the world?

Below looks at the chart patterns of the Nikkei 225 over the past 30-years on a monthly basis-

The chart above highlights that the Nikkei 225 is at its 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its 1989 highs and 2009 lows as well as testing it’s 1997 highs at the same time at (3). While testing this key retracement level, the Nikkei could be creating a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick pattern) at (3).

While the Nikkei is testing what could be an important price point, London & France could be testing the tops of rising channels at the same time.

Last week the Power of the Pattern highlighted that London and France could be testing 800-pound resistance lines. See post HERE

The trends in the Nikkei, FTSE 100 & CAC-40 remain up, as one week’s price action does not change that trend!!!

Why you see chart pattern analysis with brief commentary:   There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.   

I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take. 

This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.

Receive my free research posted on the blog daily here. 

Or,  send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of my premium or weekly research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks.

Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com  

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM.





Weekly Market Recap Nov 12, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

While it was the first losing week in 8 for the major averages, bulls should continue to be happy as such minor losses after significant rallies are just part of a consolidation period.   Tuesday was the only positive day for the week but again we are talking about a very low volatility environment, where “down days” are often in the spirit of -0.15%.   That said the weakness in the Russell 2000 was interesting this past week.

While these type of quotes – now incessant it seems – should worry you, it hasn’t matter to the market….

There is no reason for stocks to go down substantially at this point, as earnings growth is robust and global economy is improving. The path of least resistance is higher,” said Steve Chiavarone, portfolio manager at Federated Global Allocation Fund.

I don’t really see how this bull market gets derailed,” said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors.

News flow was really quiet outside of some tussling over tax reform.

The mega capitalization glamour stocks – especially in technology….

….are hiding it but we are seeing some weakness in interesting areas – biotechs, transports, etc.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. via Jill Mislinski.

The one year rally since Trump was elected, and the DJIA rally since then has been the best since 1945!

The DJIA has advanced 28.50% since Nov. 8, 2016. (as of Wednesday’s close) That represents its best performance after a White House contest since 1945, when the blue-chip gauge was up 29.83% in a year following the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt. The average 12-month gain following Election Day is 6.04%.  The gains have been primarily concentrated within two sectors: technology stocks, up 42.2% over the past 12 months, and financials, up 37.5%.   Trump has taken full credit for the equities rally, offering this assessment this week: “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me.”

The week ahead…

Retail sales Wednesday (expected 0.1% growth!) is the only economic…
continue reading





Russell 2000 Finishes Neutral; Tech Posts Minor Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

It wasn’t a particularly exciting Friday but there were some points-of-action of interest. I had tweeted about the weakness in the Russell 2000 but there wasn’t much satisfaction for either side. The Russell 2000 finished with a narrow doji at the 50-day MA. As it failed to close below the 50-day MA bulls will be satisfied with a successful defense of the 50-day MA but the narrow intraday range offers a bigger swing trade off a break of the high/lows from Friday. There is still a chance a break below the 50-day MA will kickstart an acceleration towards the 200-day MA and this still looks like the preferred outcome. Any move back inside the ‘bull flag’ will open up for a ‘bear trap’ and a likely break of 1,500 – a move above 1,480 will open up a long trade opportunity.

Tech indices held on to Thursday’s recovery and then managed to post a small gain (or at least a higher open). The Nasdaq is holding to its rising channel which keeps the broader bullish picture intact.

The S&P stuck to upper channel resistance (now support). Volume was down so no real switch to selling/profit taking. If the Russell 2000 can post a bounce then I would look for a fresh run to new all-time highs in the S&P; looks like traders need Small Cap leadership at this time.

The Nasdaq Summation Index doesn’t look like it’s suggesting we are at a bottom yet; significant market lows for the Nasdaq require an upturn (and cross of 5-day EMA) with the index below -500.  This is clearly not the case yet.

The Percentage of the Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA are also in a scrappy bearish decline; nothing suggesting a swing low yet.

Bullish Percents are attempting a low but well away from oversold levels; for this index I would want to see sub-30s for long term buys.  At best, it’s a short term buying opportunity if there is a close above the…
continue reading





Hindenburg Omen Sighted As Stocks Suffer First Weekly Loss In 2 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Credit markets to stocks this week…

Before we start – let's celebrate. As @BespokeInvest notes, we're making history today: first 12 month period in the history of the S&P 500 without a 3% drawdown. The VIX is also the lowest on record using a rolling 12 month average.

All major indices ended the week red. This is the Dow & S&P's first weekly loss in the last 9 weeks. Trannies were worst (worst weekly loss since July). Small Caps worst week since August.

This was VIX's biggest weekly rise in 3 months…

Russell 2000 VIX actually ended slightly lower with S&P VIX the biggest riser on the week…

Financials (green) were the week's worst performing sector, Utes (blue) and Retailers (black) outperformed…

On the week when the goivernment unveiled its tax plan, high tax stocks underperformed…

Bonds and Stocks fell on the week for the first time since June…

Which coincided with the worst drop in Ruisk-Parity funds since June…

All of which happens as a cluster of Hindebnburg Omens strikes…

Breadth in stocks remains weak…

HYG (High Yield Bond prices) tumbled most in 3 months…

High Yield continues to diverge from stocks…

VIX remains suppressed…

Treasuries sold off quite hard today – notable along with the equity weakness, suggesting Risk Parity problems – as the long-end underperformed, swinging the curve steeper…

The yield curve ended the week very marginally steeper after a v-shaped bounce midweek…

The Dollar Index fell for the first week in the last 4…

Crude was up for the 5th week in a row, copper lagged…

Gold and Bitcoin tumbled on the day…

One reason for the drop in Bitcoin is perhaps some wealth transfer from crypto to cash spending for Singles Day…

Gold was hit hard today a $4billion notional dump but remains higher on the week post-Saudi-chaos…





Sweet melt up potential here says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tis the season for Chocolate (Cocoa) to do well, will it repeat its historical pattern again this year?

Below looks at the seasonal pattern of Cocoa from Sentimentrader

Going into this period of seasonal strength, Cocoa bulls of late are hard to find and dumb money traders have established one of the largest short positions in this commodity in years. The triple combo could make the price action of this commodity very interesting going forward.

This commodity can be played in the futures markets or two different ETF’s (NIB & CHOC). Below looks at NIB.

Cocoa ETF NIB could have built a base at, where seven different bullish wicks (reversal wicks) took place just above 10-year support at (1). Of late NIB has been moving higher and this week looks to be breaking above highs hit earlier this week at (2).

A nice combo of pattern, sentiment and traders positions is in play in this asset that is down nearly 50% in the past couple of years.

Some perspective- since the first of this month, NIB has gained over 7%, which is nearly half of what the S&P has done year-to-date.

Full disclosure Premium and Sector members have been long NIB since the end of October. If you would like to become aware of these type of pattern and sentiment setups, we would be honored if you were a member.

Why you see chart pattern analysis with brief commentary: There is a ton of news and opinions about markets and stocks that make the decision-making process more difficult than it needs to be.   

I believe the Power of the chart Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take. 

This approach has worked well for me and our clients and I encourage you to test it for yourself.

Receive my free research posted on the blog daily here 

Or, send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of my premium or weekly research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks.  Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com  

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM 





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

In-store shopping still matters this holiday season

 

In-store shopping still matters this holiday season

Courtesy of Kelli HollingerTexas A&M University

In-person shopping remains popular. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

It surprises most millennials to learn that only about 10 percent of all retail purchases are actually made online. Each semester, when I ask hundreds of undergraduate business students to estimate, they consistently guess that between a quarter and half of all retail spending happens on the internet. But t...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Surge On Biggest Short Squeeze Since Election As Dollar Dumps To Worst Year Since 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Stocks are at record highs (so is debt) so get out and consume America...

Ugly week for China...

German stocks just could not decide what to do this week after Merkel's mishaps...

But solid EU PM...



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Digital Currencies

Ethereum Surges To New Record Highs - Bigger Than Capital One, ICE, & eBay

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following its big surge Thursday, Ethereum has broken through the psychologically important threshold of $400, establishing a new all-time high - currently hovering above $450.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

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Chart School

Happy Thanksgiving :) Friday Should Be A Winner

Courtesy of Declan

Thanksgiving Wednesday was never going to generate an exciting day but it was good to see early week gains retained. Upcoming Thanksgiving Friday is typically a day when Junior traders go wild and decent gains are posted - even if trading volume is light. With last week's lead action I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern was to repeat.

Tech Indices have been leading the charge in recent days and I would look to the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to be the primary chargers on Friday. Technicals are firmly in the green.

The Nasda...



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Insider Scoop

8 Stocks To Watch For November 22, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 9 Stock's Moving In Tuesday's After Hours Session Salesforce Falls Despite Q3 Beat The Vetr co...

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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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