Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Reading the tape of ticker: BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

reading-the-tape-of-ticker-biomarin-pharmaceutical-bmrnBiotechs are recovering, this stock is lagging, but getting ready to move.



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Another example of Richard Wyckoff logic






NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”I have yet to find a man, in or out of Wall Street, who is able to make money in (markets) continuously or uninterruptedly. Like anyone else, I have good and bad periods.”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.



Warren Buffett











Dow Follows S&P Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a bit of a slow burn day. The S&P held its ground and its breakout without generating significant weakness. However, the Dow managed to post a new closing high although the percentage gain is low and volume was below average.






On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq was rebuffed by resistance as it was unable to break higher.





The Russell 2000 didn’t do a whole lot and technicals remain bullish with continued improvement in relative performance. It’s up against a minor resistance with 1,460 easily within range.





For tomorrow, bulls now have the S&P and Dow Jones Index to work with while bears have both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The Russell 2000 may grab some shorting interest but technicals suggest higher prices are favoured.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









S&P Breakout Holds

Courtesy of Declan.

Large Caps and the S&P, in particular, has been leading the broader market with this week’s breakout. Technicals are all net bullish as the index looks to mount a challenge of rising channel resistance, which is still some distance away. Current momentum suggests higher prices are favoured and it will take a loss of the channel and a failed retest of the prior high to suggest bears have regained control – so shorts will have to wait longer before they can act.






The other Large Cap index, the Dow Jones, has nicked a small breakout but it hasn’t really cleared resistance. If the S&P can maintain breakout support then buyers will look to the Dow as a ‘cheap’ alternative to trade. The good news for bulls is that supporting technicals are strong and aligning in favour of buyers.





The Nasdaq is another index poised to break. Again, bulls probably have done enough to see a breakout; technical strength is good and today’s volume registered as an accumulation day.





The Nasdaq 100 is also ready to rise. If there is a concern (and it would apply to the Nasdaq too) it’s that relative performance has shifted away from Tech towards Small Caps.





Finally, the Russell 2000 continued its run of good form.  It still has plenty of work to do to make it back to highs, but for those who bought the swing low or the fake out loss of the 200-day MA have little reason to sell. Better still, relative performance has started to pick up after months of underperformance – a key shift.





For tomorrow, look for a following breakout in the Dow Jones and new breakouts in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts at All-Time Highs

 

A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts at All-Time Highs

Courtesy of 

This morning, the S&P 500 is making its 31st all-time high this year. That’s one every 5.6 days, on average.

The index is up 11.1% over the first 174 days of 2017, which is the strongest year-to-date performance through this time since 2013.

The S&P 500 has been above the 200-day moving average for 304 days, going back to last June. What’s incredible about this streak is that it hasn’t even come close to testing its 200-day. It has been more than 3% above it, an arbitrary number, for 210 straight days. This is just the seventh time since 1970 that stocks have experienced a stretch like this.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 relative to its 200-day in gray, with the other 6 instances of elevated readings highlighted in red.

What’s somewhat noteworthy about the current streak is that at no point was the S&P 500 more than 10% above the 200-day, which happened in each of the previous six occurrences. In other words, stocks have been elevated for a while, but never got terribly extended.

What also makes today interesting is how quiet it is. It feels weird to be hanging around all-time highs without much movement in either direction. The chart below shows the rolling 30-day standard deviation for the S&P 500. The red areas show the six previous times when stocks were extended above their 200-day moving average.

Below is the information from the chart thrown into table.

What does all this mean? Stocks are elevated but they’re not moving very much, which probably could have been a tweet, but I always say most tweets should be blog posts.





Respectable Gains Offer Test of Highs

Courtesy of Declan.

So with markets threatening support they instead gap higher and post further gains.  Today has probably done enough to see markets post new all-time highs while shorts are left with little to work with.




The S&P gapped higher with technicals net bullish. Volume was a little disappointing (given the degree of gain) but all of this leaves markets ready for new highs.






The Nasdaq gapped on higher volume accumulation. The index hasn’t yet managed new highs but tomorrow could be the day this happens. Look for a move to upper channel resistance.





The Russell 2000 was the index offering the best chance for bulls. Today was a good solid day’s action delivered below the radar; use GTC ‘buy’ orders to fish for fills down to 1,400 with stops on a loss of last week’s lows.





For bulls late to the game, keep an eye on the Nasdaq 100. The index is nicely primed for a breakout just below 6,000.





Tomorrow will be about holding on to as much of today’s gains as possible. For traders seeking new opportunities, a breakout in the Nasdaq 100 is probably the best play.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog


.


I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Big Gains Offer Test of Highs

Courtesy of Declan.

So with markets threatening support they instead gap higher and post further gains.  Today has probably done enough to see markets post new all-time highs while shorts are left with little to work with.




The S&P gapped higher with technicals net bullish. Volume was a little disappointing (given the degree of gain) but all of this leaves markets ready for new highs.






The Nasdaq gapped on higher volume accumulation. The index hasn’t yet managed new highs but tomorrow could be the day this happens. Look for a move to upper channel resistance.





The Russell 2000 was the index offering the best chance for bulls. Today was a good solid day’s action delivered below the radar; use GTC ‘buy’ orders to fish for fills down to 1,400 with stops on a loss of last week’s lows.





For bulls late to the game, keep an eye on the Nasdaq 100. The index is nicely primed for a breakout just below 6,000.





Tomorrow will be about holding on to as much of today’s gains as possible. For traders seeking new opportunities, a breakout in the Nasdaq 100 is probably the best play.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog


.


I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Sep 10, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The holiday shortened week started with a bout of moderate selling but things were largely quiet in the indexes after that.   The debt ceiling turned into a nothing burger – we didn’t even get the normal rhetorical circus out of D.C. before they kicked the can forever down the road – boo!   So we’ll be back at it circa mid December when they wave their hands in faux outrage as they raise it again.

One note on the Federal Reserve – Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer plans to resign from his post in mid-October. His term was set to end in June.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged, while Mario Draghi indicated that the decision on how to taper a quantitative-easing program will come in October.

Not much to note in economic news but Wednesday ISM services came in at 55.3 for August, compared with 53.9 in July – so a nice rebound there. A reading of at least 50 indicates expansion.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.6% while the NASDAQ pulled back 1.2%.

While the hurricanes are obviously terrible for those involved, they actually will be a boost to the economy as we move ahead.  That said google “broken glass fallacy” when you have a moment.

As devastating as the hurricanes are, they are likely boost the economy, according to New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley.  “The long-run effect of these disasters, unfortunately, is it actually lifts economic activity because you have to rebuild all the things that have been damaged by the storms,” Dudley said in an interview with CNBC.

“I would expect that by the time we get to the end of the year and early 2018, the transitory negative effects of this storm I think will be over and we actually will start to see some of the benefits of the rebuilding efforts in terms of boosting the economy,” Dudley said.

Remember when everyone hyped the “strong dollar” Trump would bring post election?  Not so much – this past week was…
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Decision Time For Tech and S&P

Courtesy of Declan.

The coiling setup from last week unwound itself with a move lower; whether markets have blinked and are ready for further losses or if this is just some ‘bear trap’ remains to be seen. The key test will be whether support from long established rising price channels will hold if such losses continue.




The S&P only posted a small loss and some may consider Friday’s action a shift in the coil position (use the 2-day high/low to define the trade and stop). However, the rising channel is very close and is in close proximity to the 20-day and 50-day MA.






The Nasdaq experienced a bigger loss than the S&P but has a greater number of support levels to work with; horizontal and channel support along with converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. One key difference to the S&P is the relative outperformance of Tech stocks to Large Caps. If buyers are to enjoy a boost then the Nasdaq may benefit ahead of the S&P.





The Russell 2000 is trading inside the prior range. After failing to follow through on the break below the 200-day MA it’s now building demand around its 50-day MA. I like the relative performance of this index; it’s caught inside a range and below moving averages which will keep it away from technical scans and the interest of most momentum/short term traders.  There may be one surprise in the bag – a duck-down-and-bounce off the 200-day MA would be ideal. One to watch.





Another index looking ready to crack is the Dow. Two prior tests of the 200-day MA failed to ignite a bounce and Friday’s third such test may be the one to break the camels back. Supporting technicals are weak and the index is exhibiting the weakest relative performance. Downside target is the 200-day MA.





For tomorrow, shorts should probably focus on the Dow, longs could perhaps fish GTC buy orders around the 200-day MA in the Russell 2000 in addition to playing a break above the 50-day MA.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Reading the tape of ticker: Starbucks (SBUX)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

reading-the-tape-of-ticker-starbucks-sbuxStarbucks has been rocking on higher for years, but has the coffee gone bitter !



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Another example of Richard Wyckoff logic






NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”While I have made it a practice to limit my risk in most cases, I can trace most of my principal losses to my failure to place stop orders when the trades were made.”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history.”..



Charlie Munger



..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..



Spike Milligan





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch











Markets Coiled and Ready to Strike

Courtesy of Declan.

After Tuesday’s sell off markets have traded into tight coils (inside days) which are traditionally viewed as swing trade opportunities; buy break of high/stop on reverse side + vice versa for a short.




The S&P is sitting just above its converging 20-day and 50-day MAs and rising channel support. Technicals are still on the bullish side so I would look for an upside breakout.





The Nasdaq has a better coiling setup; today’s small doji is an inside day of an inside day. The index has done well to hold above support and is very close to pushing above the 52-week high of 6,460. Technicals are also well placed with plenty of room before they become overbought. Favoured upside.





The Russell 2000 hasn’t followed the coiling action of other indices, but it is shaping a good pullback which will offer bulls a buying opportunity if it can tag its fast rising 200-day MA.





The Dow may be the index to offer shorts something. There was a small loss which accounted for a fourth tag of 20-day and 50-day moving averages – each tag weakens the support. The technical picture has three out of four monitored indicators in the red. Stops go above 22,000.





Plenty of scope for opportunity tomorrow. Swing trades are a two-way play although many of these coiling patterns are supported by technicals which suggest highest prices will prevail.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Bitcoin "Probably Worth Zero"

Courtesy of Mish.

What’s Bitcoin worth?

At this moment on September 27, 2015, it’s worth $3,786.50.

Yet, Wall Street Journal writer James Mackintosh says Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Shows The Truth: It Is Probably Worth Zero.

Behind every bubble is a good idea bursting to get out, and bitcoin kind of looks like a good idea, at least if you squint a bit. A digital currency without borders that governments can’t control and that allows secret online transactions? I’m in. Bitcoin itself? Not so much.

So is a single bitcoin worth $500,000, $5,000, $500 or $0? I’m inclined to say $0, especially if bitcoin’...



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Zero Hedge

First Black Medal Of Honor Recipient's Act of 'Defiance': He Never Let The Flag Touch The Ground

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As we reported previously, Sunday afternoon's round of NFL games included players from nearly every team joining the "take a knee" protest during the National Anthem, while many others locked arms in solidarity with players who decided to take a knee, or - in the case of the Pittsburg Steelers - remained in the locker room, and thus weren't visible to the public. Notably,...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 Hits Its Target

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday delivered the upside target of 1,450 I was looking for in the Russell 2000. Next will be some follow through in line with the S&P and Dow breakouts, but this will require a resistance break which will be harder than a resistance tag. Technicals are healthy and relative strength is working strongly in Small Caps favour.


The S&P had a quiet Friday; volume was lighter, technicals are strong, and Thursday's sell off was stalled by Friday's recovery. However, the S&P continued its relative underperformance...

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ValueWalk

Dotard Vs. Madman: The Linguistic War Between Trump And Kim

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The war of words between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea has escalated… again. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to “tame with fire” U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he referred to as “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.”

Gage Skidmore / Flickr

An official statement released by Kim on Thursday came as an apparent response to Trump’s newly announced eco...



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Insider Scoop

Healthcare Stocks Spike After McCain Announces 'No' Vote On Graham-Cassidy Proposal

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AET Your Easy Guide To Credit Suisse's New Top Stocks List Vornado Realty Has An Intri...

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Digital Currencies

Jamie Dimon Faces Market Abuse Claim Over "False, Misleading" Bitcoin Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A week after Jamie Dimon made headlines by proclaiming Bitcoin a "fraud" and anyone who owns it as "stupid," the JPMorgan CEO faces a market abuse claim for "spreading false and misleading information" about bitcoin.

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's panicked outburst wi...



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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks" But TNN Says "Not So Fast"

What do you think? (There's a comment section below )

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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