Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Small Caps Maintain Selling – Tech Joins In.

Courtesy of Declan.

Sellers kept pressure on the Russell 2000 with the Nasdaq and Large Caps also partaking in the profit taking merrymaking.




Large Caps had begun with a boost, the Dow in particular had started well, but was pegged back to finish with an inverse ‘gravestone’ doji. With sellers picking up the pace in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 there is a good chance the ‘gravestone’ doji will hold to its name and deliver trouble tomorrow.






The Nasdaq gave up a percentage point on higher volume distribution, giving up the breakout in the process. On-Balance-Volume is close to generating a ‘sell’ trigger.  There was a relative loss against the S&P.





The Russell 2000 didn’t experience the same degree of loss, but it did chalk up its third day of loss in a row. Despite this, it remains the lead performing index relative to the Nasdaq and S&P.





For tomorrow, look for more of the same. With just one day of profit taking under the belt there hasn’t been a decent run of selling since the election. Shorting opportunities won’t present themselves until there is a failed rally following such a sell off.  Remember, the Russell 2000 has already flagged itself for profit-taking as prices moved inside the 10% zone of historic highs relative to its 200-day MA.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





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If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Bulls Make Comeback

Courtesy of Declan.

It didn’t last long, but sellers quickly ran out of steam. Monday had the look of a profit taking, but buyers were quick to make a reappearance. Will markets make it back to Fib retracements? They look a long way way away.






The Nasdaq continues to hold breakout levels. Volume confirms accumulation with all technicals net bullish.





The Russell 2000 was the only index not to post a gain, although after a series of extended gains I would have expected a greater loss.





Can bulls return to the attack? Small Caps will find it harder, but the Nasdaq is well positioned to take advantage.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Russell 2000 Experiences Profit Taking

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday’s partial trading delivered a final boost before holiday hangover selling kicked in. There is plenty of room for profit taking in the Russell 2000; look to Fib retracements for pullback opportunities. One thing I had missed was the profit take warning in this index; the Russell 2000 has tagged the 14.3% and 12.3% push above its 200-day MA which is in the 10% zone of historic price action dating back to 1987 (see table at the end of this post).






Other indices haven’t yet extended themselves so far. Profit Taking, while expected, isn’t as likely to be as extensive as for the Russell 2000.




The S&P has Fib retracements to look too.





The Nasdaq likely hasn’t driven far enough beyond resistance to encourage significant profit taking, but it can’t be excluded if sellers do make an appearance in other indices.





For tomorrow, look for additional profit taking in the Russell 2000 and other indices to follow.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Nov 27, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

While it is never always positive, it does “feel” like Thanksgiving week is often quite bullish for stocks.  Light volume, generally positive feelings of the holiday, mild meltups often seem to happen in years not called 2008 or 2000.   This year we had the added bonus of a break to the upside preceding this past week and the NYSE McClellan Oscillator finally giving us a buy signal, so true to form it was generally a solid week with a nice start Monday and a nice close Friday sandwiching two very quiet days.  We continue to see a lot of nice moves in “growth sectors” vs defensive sectors. For the week the NASDAQ rose 1.5%, while the S&P gained 1.4%. The Russell climbed 2.3%.

“The post election narrative is still in place, with investors continuing to focus on fiscal policy and regulatory easing. That’s giving the market reason to be optimistic, and it means that the path of least resistance is higher for now,” said Aaron Clark, a portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management, which has $33 billion in assets under management.  Despite that, Clark added that “I’m surprised by how quickly markets have priced in the positive impact of the election, as though changes to taxes and regulation can be done with the snap of a finger. I don’t think we’ve overshot on the upside, but we could see buyer’s remorse if the market starts to think it is ignoring risk.”

A Federal Reserve rate hike in December is now built into this market and the minutes released Wednesday did nothing to dissuade that line of thought.  The Fed minutes showed that policy makers agreed an interest-rate increase may be appropriate relatively soon.

Economic news was sparse with the highlight being Wednesday’s durable goods # which surged 4.8% in October, in large part due to strong demand for commercial aircraft.

Fun fact:  Online shopping on Thanksgiving Day itself delivered $1.15 billion in sales, an increase of 13.6% over last year, according to Adobe Systems. Of that revenue, $449 million came via a mobile devices…
continue reading





Gold Cycle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-cycle-updateUsing our Jim Hurst Cycle tools we can find major cycle bottoms in a time series.



Time series do cycle, and multiple times cycles find major bottoms. A gold cycle bottom is hear or very near. Simply a price bounce is due.





Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Gold Cycle




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be.  The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction.”..



Jesse Livermore





..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..



Bernard Baruch





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..



Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

 [Contrarian Investing]











..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”…



Paul Samuelson











Joke: When Hitler found out TRUMP won!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Time for a funny ha ha, can't be serious all the time!


Investing Quotes…

.."The market is like a slowly revolving wheel: Whether the wheel will continue to revolve in the same direction, stand still or reverse depends upon the forces which come in contact with it hub and tread"..

Richard D Wyckoff

…..“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..

Martin Zweig

..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..

John Templeton

.."Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway"..

Warren Buffett

..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..

Warren Buffet
 

 





Indices head into Thanksgiving on a High

Courtesy of Declan.

Well, the Russell 2000 just hasn’t stopped since the election results. An incredible run. There isn’t a whole much to be said on the day, although it was somewhat surprising to see higher volume accumulation. I’ll leave you with the Russell 2000 chart.






Have a Great Thanksgiving. Back on Monday.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









This Is Not Bearish

 

This Is Not Bearish

Courtesy of 

The S&P 500 just made an all-time high for the 11th time this year, and the 1134th time since 1928. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 19,000 for the first time ever. The natural inclination is that now might not be the best time to put new money to work. The data doesn’t support this, at least not in the short term.

The table below shows that average returns six months and one year following an all-time high has been stronger compared with all other days.

new-highs

Taking a longer-term view, 18% of all months have closed at a new all-time high. You can see them represented below by the green dots. New highs are nothing to fear, in fact they are the cornerstone of every great bull market.

spx-hgh

The people that use all-time highs to scare you are the same people who told you that the 27% selloff in the Russell 2000 earlier this year was the canary in the coalmine. Small-cap stocks are now at all-time highs and 40% off their February lows. The main takeaway is this; it’s true that every nasty bear market we’ve ever had followed an all-time high, but all time highs on their own is not a harbinger of bad things to come.





Chart o’ the Day: The Big Breakout

 

Chart o’ the Day: The Big Breakout

Courtesy of 

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 all closed at new all-time record highs. This hasn’t happened since December of 1999.

dow-jones

It also wasn’t easy. Stocks have been through a grueling two-year consolidation period beginning in 2014 with the end of quantitative easing and the onset of the crude oil crash. But earnings expectations were adjusted, sector rotations took place beneath the surface and the big, bad election took place without a civil war.

Our new president also has both houses of congress on his side for the first time since the beginning of W’s administration. Talk of massive fiscal stimulus and tax cuts is in the air and bonds are selling off, providing the fuel that stocks needed to break away. Stock funds have seen $130 billion pulled from them over the last year and most of that money went into bonds. If there is truly a sentiment sea change at hand – with investors in the mood to allocate to risk – it could go on for awhile.

This is the breakout. But is it fleeting or lasting? Who could know?





There is zero evidence of a long-term correlation between stocks and the dollar

 

There is zero evidence of a long-term correlation between stocks and the dollar

Courtesy of 

Jon Krinsky’s note this weekend contained an important chart reminding investors that the US dollar is not, in and of itself, a long-term threat to the stock market.

Without question stocks can be either positively or negatively correlated with the dollar and then the trend can either fade or completely switch in a 180. Constructing a bullish or bearish thesis based solely on the dollar requires you to get a lot of stuff right that you probably can’t.

Here’s Jon Krinsky of MKM Partners with my favorite chart o’ the day:

One of the biggest perceived headwinds for stocks is sustained strength from the U.S. Dollar. While an extreme spike in the DXY would likely cause some volatility in the short-term, there is very little evidence that a strong dollar will prohibit stocks from advancing.

screen-shot-2016-11-21-at-12-17-37-pm

Source:

Small-Caps, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh My…
MKM Partners – November 20th, 2016





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Mainstream Media Is Asking For A Government Bailout Via Censorship

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The current controversy is different. Many people in Washington are irate over Wikileaks — not because the email were untrue but because they proved what many had long suspected . . . that Washington is a highly corrupt place full of truly despicable people. For pe...



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Phil's Favorites

Naked Capitalism Threatens Lawsuit Over Washington Post Over "Fake News" Story; Obama Starts Russia Witch Hunt

Courtesy of Mish.

Earlier today, president Obama started a witch hunt based on Russia hacking claims.

In the second Russia-related story of the day, Yves Smith, author of Naked Capitalism, considers a lawsuit against the Washington Post for an extremely sloppy article on “Fake News”, primarily about Russia that mentioned her website.

The article listed Naked Capitalism, Zero Hedge, and 200 other sites for “spreading fake news”. Included in the list were Counterpunch, the Drudge Report, Truthdig, and Truth-out.

I failed to make the grade and almost feel slighted.

Please consider Washington Post on the ‘Fake News’ Hot Seat.

The...



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ValueWalk

Aswath Damodaran Session 24: Acquisition Valuation

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Acquisitions are exciting and fun to be part of but they are not great value creators and in today’s sessions, I tried to look at some of the reasons. While the mechanical reasons, using the wrong discount rate or valuing synergy & control right, are relatively easy to fix, the underlying problems of hubris, ego and over confidence are much more difficult to navigate. There are ways to succeed, though, and that is to go where the odds are best: small targets, preferably privately held or subsidiaries of public companies, with cost cutting as your primary synergy benefit. If you get a chance, take a look at a big M&A deal and see if you can break it down into its components.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Re...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks & Bonds testing 20-year inflection points, says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the patterns on the S&P 500 and the Yield on the 10-year note (Inverted to look like bond prices), since the late 1980’s. A rare test of support and resistance by stocks and bonds, is in play right now!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500, has remained inside of rising channel (1), for the majority of the past 20-years.

The 10-year yield (Inverted) has remained inside of rising channel (2), for the major...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Uncertainty Looms as Triple-Leveraged Oil Bets Go Dark (The Wall Street Journal)

Thursday is the final day of ordinary trading for a pair of popular exchange-traded products that deliver turbo-charged returns on the price of crude oil.

China warns WTO members not to use non-market economy clause after December 11 (Reuters)

China's Commerce Ministry said on Friday it would take "necessary measures" if World Trade Organization members continue to use a non-market economy clause in its to WTO deal to assess dumping duties against it after Dec. 11.

...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop At A Party?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, it's "Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo", so we follow up on Second Hand Stink with How to Poop At A Party. 

This hilarious video demonstrates how to control the Shituation when needing to Poopulate at a gathering, in no uncertain terms. 

We hope this recurring bathroom humor theme "shits" well with our readers. So please do relax, drop the cursor below, click and enjoy.

...

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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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