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Bond yields falling sharply…

Treasury Yields Are Crashing-er

By Tyler Durden

The entire bond complex has come under pressure here with 2Y through 30Y all seeing yields jerk lower. 10Y and 30Y yields are back at the flash-crash Bullard Lows of Oct 16th… as yet another squeeze of record Treasury Shorts blows the minds of every talking head on CNBC…

From the close of the day when Jim Bullard saved the world!!!

Full article from Zero Hedge.

The Oil Crash Is Not The Biggest Story In The Global Markets Right Now

By  at the Business Insider

The most talked-about story in the market is oil, but there is a more important move happening in markets: US Treasury bonds are on fire.

The yield on long-dated US Treasury bonds — meaning the 10- and 30-year bonds — has been falling sharply over the past week. 

When long-dated bonds rally, it is taken as a sign that investors are "fleeing to safety" or "seeking protection," as US Treasury bonds are considered the safest investment you can make.

Keep reading >

30year1211


Read more:  Treasury Bond Rally, December 11 – Business Insider.





Late Selling Puts Pressure on Friday

Courtesy of Declan.

Thursday saw another attempt by bulls to make up the losses of the previous day, but bears didn’t wait until the next day to attack. Instead, an afternoon assault pushed markets back towards their lows, setting up a situation for further losses today (Friday).

Volume was light, and there is plenty of support nearby to work, but it doesn’t look good if you want to be a buyer for the longer term.  If that’s your goal, refer to my table below to identify market conditions best suited to do this.

As for markets, the S&P inverse hammer looks ugly. A test of 2,009 today or Monday doesn’t look unreasonable.


The Nasdaq has rewarded shorts who attacked the ‘bear flag’ breakdown quite handsomely.  More to follow today? The inside day looks like a bullish harami doji (one of the most reliable reversal patterns), but as the index is not oversold I would not rely on it to hold true Friday.

The Russell is range bound, and of all the indices it offers no real advantage to bull or bear.

For Friday, look for selling to continue. If markets rally, look to stand aside until they make it close to week’s highs, then attack again with short positions.  Any short will be negated if November swing highs are taken out.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Yesterday’s Recovery Wiped

Courtesy of Declan.

It looked a weak recovery, and today’s action quickly exposed the nature of yesterday’s buying. Volume was modest, as holiday trading continues to be a theme. Window dressing into end-of-year remains a bullish overhang, but there is no guarantee Santa will keep on delivering gifts.

For the S&P, look to Fib retracements and 2,009 breakout support. Buyers may attempt another run at the index then.


The Nasdaq has delivered nicely on the ‘bear flag’ breakdown. There is probably more to come from bears, with shorts likely to start covering at 4,610, down through the 50-day MA, to the first of the Fib retracements at 4,538.

The Russell 2000 finished with an inside day, a quite large inside day. However, the index is in effect range bound between 1,154 support and 1,191 resistance. Trading between these ranges is difficult given the noise of recent trading action.

Rallies can be shorted until there is a break of November highs. Measure risk accordingly.


Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Late Recovery Comforts Bulls

Courtesy of Declan.

Not sure what to make of today. The recovery didn’t look like one based on merit and will be vulnerable to early morning weakness. The Russell 2000 went from trading range support to resistance as it finished with a bullish engulfing pattern. The strength of the pattern is weakened by the lack of oversold conditions. However, price action will always be dominant. A poor start will increase the probability for a retest of today’s low.


The S&P finished at its 20-day MA, but has so far struggled in prior attempts to challenge 2,073. There may be a short term day trade to 2,073, but if there is an open below 2,056, then a move to 2,034 looks more likely.

The Nasdaq clawed its way back to the ‘bear flag’ breakdown. Look for a challenge of 4,795, which may be the opportunity to run a new short play. Technicals show a MACD ‘sell’ trigger and a bearish cross in +DI / -DI.

For tomorrow, morning action will dictate action for the day. If there is a gap down, today’s gain stands a good chance of been erased. If markets can hold on for the first hour, then a challenge of recent highs looks more likely.


Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Broad Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears paid an early visit to Santa with a broad selling. The relative loss was minor, although volume climbed to register confirmed distribution. The Nasdaq delivered on the ‘bear flag’ breakdown, which will give shorts something to work with.  The index finished on its 20-day MA. but this hasn’t played as support in recent months.


The S&P may be creating a bearish ‘evening star’ with today’s loss following from Friday’s doji. The index finished at its 20-day MA, although this hasn’t provided much support in past tests this year. Further losses are likely.  First look for a test of 2,009, with follow through down to Fib levels.

The Russell 2000 suffered the largest loss of the day. This may morph into a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern, but for this to confirm a close below 1,155 is required.

Losses in the Semiconductor Index look bad, but damage was minor.

For tomorrow, look for expanding losses in markets. The Nasdaq was the most bearish heading into today, and remains the index best positioned for shorts to attack.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Extreme moves in the USD do not hurt gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

extreme-moves-in-the-usd-do-not-hurt-goldWell for the last decade, anyways!

Chart below is a weekly chart of GLD and DXY.

As shown below powerful moves in the USD (DXY) do not send gold crashing. The USD looks like it is completing a A-B-C correction. Once the C is done, and the DXY falls, gold will do well. How much longer for the DXY? The strong rally may last 3 to 5 weeks more, and then will stall and start to consolidate, what happens after that will be very interesting.

The main point is that US dollar strength is not trashing the gold trend, this is good relative strength and shows bulls defending the long term trend. When excitement runs out for the DXY the GLD will do well.

A note to members, we must see strength enter the gold market and a confirmed sign that behavior has changed from selling to buying.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
GLD



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Being in the market at all times is not the key to profits. Being in the market when there is a clear, unconfused technical signal, and the trader’s judgment is not swayed by emotion, is the method for trading success”..

Richard D Wyckoff


..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..

Anon








Broad Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears paid an early visit to Santa with a broad selling. The relative loss was minor, although volume climbed to register to confirmed distribution. The Nasdaq delivered on the ‘bear flag’ breakdown, which will give shorts something to work with.  The index finished on its 20-day MA. but this hasn’t played as support in recent months.


The S&P may be creating a bearish ‘evening star’ with today’s loss following from Friday’s doji. The index finished at its 20-day MA, although this hasn’t provided much support in past tests this year. Further losses are likely.  First look for a test of 2,009, with follow through down to Fib levels.

The Russell 2000 suffered the largest loss of the day. This may morph into a bearish head-and-shoulder pattern, but for this to confirm a close below 1,155 is required.

Losses in the Semiconductor Index look bad, but damage was minor.

For tomorrow, look for expanding losses in markets. The Nasdaq was the most bearish heading into today, and remains the index best positioned for shorts to attack.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Honors Even – Indices Little Changed

Courtesy of Declan.

Not a whole lot to add to Friday’s action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it’s working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155.


But there wasn’t much else to report. A doji in the S&P came with higher volume (accumulation?), but little else.

The Nasdaq is still playing to a bearish ‘flag’ – look for a breakdown on Monday.

The Semiconductor Index continues to make ground towards its 715/20 target.

Nasdaq breadth is neither oversold, nor overbought, although there was a breakout in Summation Index and Bullish Percents which, if there was a coin-toss decision, would give an edge to bulls. So, will the ‘bear flag’ trade itself out as a straight breakout instead? Let price be your lead: an option straddle on the QQQ could also be good here.


Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Forecast with the Period Scan

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

forecast-with-the-period-scanCorrelation to look into the future.

More from RTT Tv



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. ? There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. ? Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. ? The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.” ..

William D Gann


..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..

John Templeton








Recovering from a Cold.

Courtesy of Declan.

Getting back up to speed after a head cold. Not a whole lot to report, despite the roller coaster ride in European markets yesterday. The S&P is primed to push to new highs, yesterday’s doji left it pressuring resistance.


The Nasdaq may be shaping a ‘bear flag’, which may give shorts something to work with today. Key breakout support remains at 4,610, and below that there are Fib retracements for bulls to work.

The Semiconductor Index has been a stalwart of the November-December rally, but it finished with an indecisive ‘spinning top’; this is likely nothing more than a pause in the advance, but any stall here will help bears work the ‘bear flag’ in the Nasdaq.

The Russell 2000 appears to be range bound, and building a ‘handle’ in preparation for a challenge on 1,210 resistance.

So for today, watch the Nasdaq for any breakdown opportunity. Existing longs have little reason to sell; the seasonal Santa Rally will likely keep things modestly bubbling along until end of year. If coming in as a fresh buyer, then things look a little more difficult: Monday’s lows are probably where risk is measured from, although I would think the chance for whipsaw here is quite high. The Russell 2000 may be the most stable in its range, and therefore the least likely to whipsaw a new long position out.


Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Conrad Black: The Saudis Fear Western Alliance With Iran; Crashing Oil Is Their Retaliation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Conrad Black via The National Post,

Responses to the decline in world oil prices have been mystifying — flummoxing, in fact. The secretary general of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), Abdullah Al-Badri, said last week that speculation was to blame for the decline by 15% since the last increase in production. He ceremoniously denied that there was any attempt by the cartel to discourage production from shale or oil sands, or to put politi...



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Phil's Favorites

OPEC Blames Speculators, Non-OPEC Countries, US Frackers for Oil Price Crash

Courtesy of Mish.

OPEC is pointing the finger at speculators as well as Non-OPEC countries, but especially US shale producers for the crude price crash.

Let's explore that idea in a series of charts. But first let's take a look at the allegation.

The Wall Street Journal reports Gulf Oil Exporters Blame Non-OPEC Producers for Glut.
Gulf oil officials on Sunday defended OPEC’s decision last month to keep its production ceiling intact, blaming producers outside of the group for the glut of oil on the market that has depressed prices.

Speaking at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi blamed a lack of coordination from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries&#...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Chart School

Can you make a living trading Springs and UpThrusts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

We tell the truth about trading springs and upthrusts, no holding back!

More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net Investing Quote...

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…

Richard D. Wyckoff
.."Markets are constantly in a state of unce...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

#PreMarket Prep Guest List For The Week Of December 22, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Brian Kelly, Curtis Erickson and Jerremy Newsome will all be guests on this shortened week of Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep broadcast, sponsored by Nadex.

Be sure to tune in at 8:00 am EST Monday-Friday here to tune in to the exciting show.

Don’t miss our #FedForecast2015 event either!

You can learn more about that here.

Monday, December 22, 8:35 a.m.

Jonathan Corpina (...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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