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Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Gasoline Volume Sales, Demographics and our Changing Culture

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on volume sales is over two months old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-May, were published today. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the US economy. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series.

Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, I’ve added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 8.6% below the all-time high set in August 2005, a new interim low.

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The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line). I’ve shortened the timeline to start with EIA price series, which dates from August 1990. The retail prices are updated weekly, so the price series is the more current of the two.

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As we would expect, the rapid rise in gasoline prices in 2008 was accompanied by a significant drop in sales volume. With the official end of the recession in June 2009, sales reversed direction … slightly. The 12-month MA hit an interim high in November 2010, and then resumed contraction. The moving average for the latest month is about 8.3% below the pre-recession level and 5.2% off the November 2010 interim high. For some historical context, the latest data point is a level first achieved in April 1998.

Some of the shrinkage in sales can be attributed to more fuel-efficient cars. But that presumably would be relatively small over shorter time frames and would be offset to some extent by population growth. For some specifics on fuel efficiency, see the Eco-Driving Index for new vehicles developed by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. However, if we look at Edmunds.com for data on the top 10 best-selling vehicles, energy efficiency doesn’t seem to be the key decision factor,…
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Inflating the Big Mac One Calorie at a Time

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 2.1% from a year ago. The latest monthly rise was driven by the escalation of oil prices. However, this rate of increase is slower than what consumers are experiencing. This post has been updated from our post on May 15, 2014.

Continuing our research into using the Big Mac as a gauge of inflation, we build on past posts but use our own research to draw conclusions. In previous articles, we have relied solely on The Economist’s calculation of the Big Mac price. The Economist has been conducting the research sporadically since 1986. However, it was not until a few years ago that they began regular updates to their research in both January and July. Believing this span is too great, we have compiled our own look at the price of the Big Mac in the United States. Thanks to my assistant Geraldine Garcia, we have surveyed 30 McDonald’s restaurants throughout the nation to obtain the average price and compare that to the trend.

From our research, we have determined that the average price of a Big Mac is $4.57 (the range was $3.91 to $5.57), an increase of $0.12, or an increase in 2.7% from what we obtained in March. During the last 12 months, this represents an increase of 4.3% from 12 months ago when the price of a Big Mac was $4.38.

As stated in previous posts, I believe that the Big Mac provides a better indication of price movements than the government compiled CPI. Many of us can neither follow nor actually experience what the CPI means or how it moves. Conversely, the Big Mac is consumed constantly, and we shell out hard-earned dollars to purchase the sandwich. Thus, it is a real-time metric of our economy.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported to have increased 1.8% during the past 12 months. The Big Mac increased significantly more. This under-reporting of inflation impacts savers, investors, retirees, and those who receive Social Security, just to name a few

Placed Insights surveyed the eating habits of Americans to determine that individuals eat 17 Big Macs a second. This means Big Macs are eaten…
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Pssst … A Breakout in China?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Many major stock indexes in the United States and Europe are either at all-time highs or near them. One sixth of the world’s population can’t make the same statement.

The chart below illustrates that the Shanghai Index and the popular China ETF (FXI) have both greatly underperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years … by more than 100%!

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The next chart highlights that the Shanghai Index and FXI are both making another attempt to break from multi-year falling resistance lines at (1). At the same time the Shanghai index is setting on a support line that dates back almost 20 years, creating a multi-year pennant pattern that will come to an end pretty soon.

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Should the Shanghai index & FXI break resistance, buyers could well start purchasing these underperformers and push them a good deal higher. Could a breakout in China help push Europe and the States stock index’s even higher?

Stay tuned! This is a very interesting resistance point for investments that represent one sixth of the world’s population! Is a multi-year bullish breakout about to take place? This is an interesting price point for a major region of the world.

Kimble Charting Solutions
For information, send an email to services@kimblechartingsolutions.com.





S&P 500 Snapshot: An Intraday Record High

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-open release of the Consumer Price Index showed core inflation in June to be a tad lighter than forecasts. The S&P 500 opened at its 0.10% intraday low and rallied to its 0.64% record intraday high about ninety minutes into the session. Strong existing home sales announced at 10 AM certainly helped. The index spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range and closed with a 0.50% gain, a mere 0.10% off its record close of July 3rd.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, 1 bp below yesterday’s close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.31% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, which gives a rough sense of investor participation, remained light.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The July Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the June year-over-year inflation rate at 2.07%, fractionally off last month’s 2.13% 19-month high, but well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 13% below its 10-year moving average.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

For better understanding of how CPI is measured and how it impacts your household, see my Inside Look at CPI components.

For an even closer look at how the components are behaving, see this X-Ray View of the data for the past six months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has compiled CPI data since 1913, and numbers are conveniently available from the FRED repository (here). My long-term inflation charts reach back to 1872 by adding Warren and Pearson’s price index for the earlier years. The spliced series is available at Yale Professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller’s website. This look further back into the past dramatically illustrates the extreme oscillation between inflation and deflation during the first 70 years of our timeline. Click here for additional perspectives on inflation and the shrinking value of the dollar.

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Alternate Inflation Data

The chart below (click here for a larger version) includes an alternate look at inflation *without* the calculation modifications the 1980s and 1990s (Data from www.shadowstats.com).

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On a personal note, I believe the current BLS method of calculating inflation is reasonably sound. As a first-wave Boomer who raised a family during the double-digit inflation years of the 1970s and early 1980s, I see nothing today that is remotely like the inflation we endured at that time. Moreover, government policy, the Federal Funds Rate, interest rates in general and decades of major business decisions have been fundamentally driven by the official BLS inflation data, not the alternate CPI. For this reason I view the alternate inflation data as an interesting but ultimately useless statistical series.

That said, I think that…
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Real Retail Sales Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In real, population-adjusted terms, Retail Sales are at the level we first reached in September 2004.

Last week the Advance Retail Sales Report showed that sales in June rose 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, as I reported in my real-time update.

With today’s release of the Consumer Price Index, we can now dig a bit deeper into the “real” data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data in its current format. I’ve highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact. After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 15.7% above the November 2007 pre-recession peak to a record high.

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Here is the same chart with two trendlines added. These are linear regressions computed with the Excel Growth function.

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The green trendline is a regression through the entire data series. The latest sales figure is 4.0% below the green line end point.

The blue line is a regression through the end of 2007 and extrapolated to the present. Thus, the blue line excludes the impact of the Financial Crisis. The latest sales figure is 18.8% below the blue line end point.

We normally evaluate monthly data in nominal terms on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis. On the other hand, a snapshot of the larger historical context illustrates the devastating impact of the Financial Crisis on the U.S. economy.

The “Real” Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains at a Recessionary Level

How much insight into the US economy does the nominal retail sales report offer? The next chart gives us a perspective on the extent to which this indicator is skewed by inflation and population growth. The nominal sales number shows a cumulative growth of 166.7% since the beginning of this series. Adjust for population growth…
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Inflation: A Six-Month X-Ray View

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. I’ve also included each of the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation.

We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc.

A conspicuous feature in the table through the latest data is the volatility of energy, essentially the fluctuation in gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.

Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted). The change in energy costs is clearly illustrated, reflected here too in transportation.

The Trends in Headline and Core CPI

The chart below shows Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Core CPI excludes the two most volatile components, food and energy. I’ve highlighted the 2% to 2.5% range that the FOMC targeted in their December 12, 2012 press release, although the Fed has traditionally used the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index as their preferred inflation gauge.

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Year-over-year Core CPI (the blue line) made a moderate arc above the 2% benchmark beginning October of 2011. It dropped below the 2% – 2.5% range in August of 2012, but grazed the bottom of that range in February and July of last year. Core CPI has been below 2% for 22 of the last 26 months. The more volatile Headline CPI has spent 23 of the past of the past 26 months under the 2% lower benchmark. Much of the volatility in the past few years has been the result of broad swings in gasoline prices (more on gasoline here).

For a longer-term perspective, here is a column-style breakdown of the inflation categories showing the change since 2000.

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Note: For additional information on the component composition of the Consumer Price Index, see my Inside the Consumer Price Index.





What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort : The charts in this commentary have been updated to include today’s Consumer Price Index news release for the June data.

The Fed justified a previous round of quantitative easing “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart below illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U, which I’ll refer to hereafter as the CPI.

The slices are listed in the order used by the BLS in their tables, not the relative size. The first three follow the traditional order of urgency: food, shelter, and clothing. Transportation comes before Medical Care, and Recreation precedes the lumped category of Education and Communication. Other Goods and Services refers to a bizarre grab-bag of odd fellows, including tobacco, cosmetics, financial services, and funeral expenses. For a complete breakdown and relative weights of all the subcategories of the eight categories, here is a useful link.

The chart below shows the cumulative percent change in price for each of the eight categories since 2000.

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Not surprisingly, Medical Care has been the fastest growing category. At the opposite end, Apparel has actually been deflating since 2000. Another unique feature of Apparel is the obvious seasonal volatility of the contour.

Transportation is the other category with high volatility — much more dramatic and irregular than the seasonality of Apparel. Transportation includes a wide range of subcategories. The volatility is largely driven by the Motor Fuel subcategory. For a closer look at gasoline, see this chart in my weekly gasoline update.

The Ominous Shadow Category of Energy

The BLS does not lump energy costs into an expenditure category. Instead, it includes energy subcategories in Housing in addition to the fuel…
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: This commentary has been updated with Real Retail Sales for June.


Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:


  • Industrial Production
  • Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments)
  • Nonfarm Employment
  • Real Retail Sales

The Latest Indicator Data

With this morning’s release of the June Consumer Price Index, we can now calculate Real Retail Sales for last month. Real Sales were essentially flat at -0.01% Month-over-Month. The Year-over-Year growth is 2.14%

Here is a chart of the monthly data points since 2009. I’ve included a regression to assist our visualization of the post-recession trend. The winter slow-down is clearly evident, with the dip below trend starting in December and a sharp plunge in January. February marked saw some improvement, and March almost took this indicator back to the trendline. But after two additional months of fairly standard growth, June was a disappointment.

The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009. We now have the first indicator update for the 60th month following the recession. The Big Four Average (gray line below).

Current Assessment and Outlook

The overall picture of the US economy had been one of a ploddingly slow recovery from the Great Recession, and the Winter data documented a sharp contraction. The early Spring appeared to support the general view that severe winter weather was responsible for the contraction — that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline. But the June Real Retail Sales suggest that our consumer-based economy remains a bit fragile.

The next update of the Big Four will…
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June Inflation Largely Attributable to Gasoline Prices

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI data this morning. Year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.07%, which the BLS rounds to 2.1%, essentially unchanged from 2.13% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.96% (rounded to 2.0%), up from the previous month’s 1.83%. Of particular interest is the fact that month-over-month Core CPI (less food and energy) rose only 0.05% (rounded to 1.0). The headline MoM increase was largely driven by higher gasoline prices (which have dropped eight cents per gallon over the last two weeks).

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted data monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

In contrast to the broad-based increase last month, the June seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was primarily driven by the gasoline index. It rose 3.3 percent and accounted for two-thirds of the all items increase. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining. The food index decelerated in June, rising only slightly, with the food at home index flat after recent increases.

The index for all items less food and energy also decelerated in June, increasing 0.1 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in May. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, and tobacco all increased in June, and the index for household furnishings and operations rose for the first time in a year. However, the index for new vehicles declined after recent increases, and the index for used cars and trucks also fell.

The all items index increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as for the 12 months ending May. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, a slight decline from the 2.0 percent figure last month. The index for energy increased 3.2 percent over the span, and the food index rose 2.3 percent.   [More…]

Investing.com was looking for increases of 0.3% for…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Record Intraday and Closing Highs ... Again

Courtesy of Doug Short.

US equity indexes hovered around the flatline today on vanishing volume. The Dow and Nasdaq closed with tiny losses, down 0.02% and 0.04%, respectively. The S&P 500 posted a fractional gain of 0.05%, but anything positive ensured both intraday and closing record highs. As for today's trading range (a -0.06% low to a 0.22% high), it was the fourth smallest of 2014.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.52%, up 4 bps from yesterday's close. It is now 8 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.55% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, which gives a rough sense of individual investor participation, continues to shrink.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

Courtesy of  

The US Government has been deliberately and systematically understating inflation since 1983. This video shows how the BLS does it.

This is a segment from the June 27 Radio Free Wall Street video for subscribers. The remainder of the program discusses why July could be rocky for stocks, and why real time data Federal tax revenues suggest that the financial engineering bubble should be near its peak. Subscribe to all of these cutting edge commentarie...



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Zero Hedge

Things In The Middle East Are About To Get Much Worse

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There are major clashes occurring currently in The West Bank tonight as claims of 10s of thousands and Palestinians clash with Israeli soldiers. Sadly, as the photos below reveal taken moments ago show, things appear set to get very much worse.

 

Qalandia now. 7 injured 1 serious. Israelis soldiers use life bullets #48Kmarch #GazaUnderAttack #BDS pic.twitter.com/8nIFbduK2v

— Rami de Ramallah (@Ramideramallah) ...



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Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: 3M Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MMM Earnings Scheduled For July 24, 2014 Stocks To Watch For July 24, 2014 Nasdaq Seen Rallying on Apple, Facebook Results (Fox Business)

3M Company (NYSE: MMM) reported in-line earnings for the second quarter.

The St. Paul, Minnesota-based company posted a quarterly net profit of $1.27 billion, or $1.91 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $1.2 billio...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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