Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Russell 2000 Under Pressure

Courtesy of Declan.

During early afternoon trading it was looking like the Russell 2000 was going to break support and leave a ‘bull trap’.  While the ‘bull trap’ remains in play the loss of support hasn’t been confirmed which would show a reversal. However, this is acting as a lead index and will determine what may come for the Nasdaq and S&P.






The Nasdaq tagged breakout support in what was a text book example of a breakout retest. This doesn’t mean such support will hold, but it’s a healthy play for those looking for higher prices.





The S&P is range bound and enjoyed a recovery today, but not enough to drive a break of resistance.  Given action in the Russell 2000 it’s unlikely to make that move higher, but if the Russell 2000 can hold support it may be able to lead higher.





For tomorrow, keep an eye on the Russell 2000. Small Caps are an important lead index, and what happens here will have relevance for other indices. There isn’t much direction from Tech and Large Cap indices, so it’s up to Small Caps to make the move.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Bulls Make Back Early Afternoon Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another good day for bulls, particularly for the S&P. An acceleration in weakness brought about in late morning action was reversed with steadying buying over the last two hours of trading.




The S&P has been range bound since early December. Today’s action didn’t change that, but it suggests the breakout – when it comes – will be higher.





The Nasdaq also felt pressure with it own sell off. Volume was down on recent weeks, but it was enough to keep bulls in control.





The Russell 2000 had a quiet day, registering just a 0.05% gain. The best of the news was it not drifting back to support, where the risk of a major breakdown lurks.





For tomorrow, look for bulls to continue their good work.  The Russell 2000 looks least likely to do anything exciting, but the S&P (and Dow) is well positioned for a breakout.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Pharma Stocks Crash Most Since Brexit After Trump Warns Drug Companies “Getting Away With Murder”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After six straight days higher and the best start to a year ever, Biotech/Pharma stocks were just crashed lower on the heels of comments from president-elect Trump promising more competitive drug pricing.

  • Trump says Pharma Industry is "getting away with murder" 
  • Trump says "we need new bidding procedures" for drug industry;

The biggest plunge in Pharma/Biotech stocks since Brexit in June 2016.

In 2 minutes, the entire 2017 rally has been wiped out.





Gains Posted But Markets Quiet

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t much to add to yesterday’s action.  The S&P closed with an indecisive doji, but given the context it was really a non-day with no advantage to either bulls or bears.






The Nasdaq posted yet another day of gain – its sixth such day in a row. Volume was down, so today didn’t register as an accumulation day, but it kept the index away from breakout support.  The probability of a ‘bull trap’ occurring looks very low.


                      



The Russell 2000 was able to claw back from swing lows. The index is trading near support, but is really caught in a trading range between 1,355 and 1,390. Given this – and prior action into this range – probability favors a continuation breakout higher. Can it deliver?



                                                                                                                                                                    For tomorrow, bulls have done a good job in pulling the Russell 2000 back from the brink and putting some distance for Tech indices from breakout support. Only Large Caps were quiet.  Look for a continuation of this action as junior traders give way to their more seasoned campaigners.            




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT Chart Review 2 – Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-chart-review-2--goldThe way to find a investment that is likely to return 2 or 3+ times your money is to find a well defined  Wyckoff ‘Cause’ (accumulation or distribution) because eventually the energy is released and the ‘Effect’ allows all to profit.





More from RTT Tv, previous Chart Review here








Maybe your a fundamental trader, well via ITM Trading this video may help (no association).












NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near it’s end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps!”..



Jesse Livermore





..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”…



Bernard Baruch





..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”..



John Templeton





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..



Bernard Baruch











Small Caps Feels The Heat

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a generally quiet day for markets with Small Caps feeling most of the pressure.




The S&P took a quarter percentage loss as it gave back a small amount of last week’s gain. There was no technical change on this loss. Nothing to be too concerned about.






The Nasdaq managed to post a small gain which helped boost the technical picture of the index. Key to this index (and the Nasdaq 100) is holding on to the breakout. Today’s action kept this breakout intact and returned a MACD trigger ‘buy’.





The Russell 2000 is the index most feeling the squeeze. The consolidation breakout is under threat of becoming a ‘bull trap’ before the Nasdaq. Any loss tomorrow will likely confirm as such.





For tomorrow it will be again be watching for a Nasdaq ‘bull trap’, alongside a new candidate in the Russell 2000.  The S&P could yet break higher despite this, and it would appear critical to do so if the Russell 2000 is to pull back from the brink.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jan 8, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Another good week for bulls as a Monday holiday was followed by 3 days of gains mixed in with 1 very tiny pullback Thursday.   Dow 20K remained a tease.

djia

It is worth noting large cap technology was a big laggard in the Trump rally; those stocks finally woke up Thursday and Friday this week.

The first week of the month is very heavy on economic data so let’s review:

  • Tuesday – the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed to 54.7 in December from 53.2. The reading was higher than expected, and the highest level in two years.  Any reading over 50 signifies expansion.
  • Also Tuesday, a read on construction spending rose 0.9% in November, above expectations and the sixth increase of the past seven months.
  • Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting were released in which it was inferred interest-rate hikes may come at a faster-than-expected pace.
  • Thursday, ISM Services came in at 57.2, 0.1 ahead of expectation.
  • Friday, the government said the economy created 156,000 jobs last month, below the consensus of 180,000 forecast by economists. However, sharp upward revisions for November jobs number and a slight trimming of October number means the latest payrolls were more or less in line, according to analysts.  More importantly, wage growth—often seen as a precursor to inflation—picked up to mark the fastest annual increase since a recovery that began in mid-2009.

As we wrote last week we focus on the U.S. market but we like to look overseas from time to time – look at the Japanese index since Trump’s election; pretty interesting action for a country that loves to export … and people expecting some sort of trade war.

nikk

Byron Wein is in his 32nd year of making “surprise” predictions (these are outlier type events) – always a fun read.

“The purpose of The Ten Surprises is to stretch my thinking (and hopefully yours) about what might happen in the coming year,” Wien wrote in a column for Barron’s. “I don’t tamp down the


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jan 8, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Another good week for bulls as a Monday holiday was followed by 3 days of gains mixed in with 1 very tiny pullback Thursday.   Dow 20K remained a tease.

djia

It is worth noting large cap technology was a big laggard in the Trump rally; those stocks finally woke up Thursday and Friday this week.

The first week of the month is very heavy on economic data so let’s review:

  • Tuesday – the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed to 54.7 in December from 53.2. The reading was higher than expected, and the highest level in two years.  Any reading over 50 signifies expansion.
  • Also Tuesday, a read on construction spending rose 0.9% in November, above expectations and the sixth increase of the past seven months.
  • Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting were released in which it was inferred interest-rate hikes may come at a faster-than-expected pace.
  • Thursday, ISM Services came in at 57.2, 0.1 ahead of expectation.
  • Friday, the government said the economy created 156,000 jobs last month, below the consensus of 180,000 forecast by economists. However, sharp upward revisions for November jobs number and a slight trimming of October number means the latest payrolls were more or less in line, according to analysts.  More importantly, wage growth—often seen as a precursor to inflation—picked up to mark the fastest annual increase since a recovery that began in mid-2009.

As we wrote last week we focus on the U.S. market but we like to look overseas from time to time – look at the Japanese index since Trump’s election; pretty interesting action for a country that loves to export … and people expecting some sort of trade war.

nikk

Byron Wein is in his 32nd year of making “surprise” predictions (these are outlier type events) – always a fun read.

“The purpose of The Ten Surprises is to stretch my thinking (and hopefully yours) about what might happen in the coming year,” Wien wrote in a column for Barron’s. “I don’t tamp down the


continue reading





First Week of 2017 Ends on High

Courtesy of Declan.

The bright start to the year continued as bulls were able to maintain buying pressure for three of the four first trading days of the year.




The S&P closed near the highs of 2016 with all key moving averages in upward trends. The MACD is still holding to a ‘sell’ trigger, but this is heading towards a new ‘buy’ trigger, which given the strong position relative to the zero line would instead register as a pullback ‘buying’ opportunity.






The Nasdaq made a standard breakout as it attempts to re-assert a leadership role against the S&P.  On-Balance-Volume hasn’t yet cleared a new high and the MACD still has a ‘sell’ trigger to navigate.  The only low point was the falling volume on the week’s rally and breakout, but this can be expected as traders slowly make their way back after the holidays.





The Russell 2000 had an understated week. It closed lower on Friday after the effects of Thursday’s selling continued. Not surprisingly, this action has seen relative performance shift sharply away from Small Cap stocks.  This may be a bit of a warning sign as money shifts from speculative to more defensive (S&P) stocks, but with the Nasdaq performing well such doubts may yet prove unfounded.





Monday should see the true start of the New Year with all traders back from their vacation.  The prognosis looks good for bulls and market watches should look to the S&P and Dow following the lead of Tech indices last week (and breaking higher).  If the reverse happens – and Tech indices drop below breakout lows – then these will become aggressive short plays (with stops going just above Friday’s highs).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Broad Market Gauge Still Hasn’t Broken Out… Yet

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

One of the few indices yet to break out, the NYSE Composite is threatening its all-time highs.

One of the characteristics of the “Trump Rally” has been its breadth of participation. Sure, there have been a few sectors that have lagged badly. However, from a market cap standpoint, most indices, from micro-caps to mega-caps, have scored new all-time highs. It isn’t unanimous, though. A few broad market gauges have not quite made it to new high ground. The Value Line Geometric Composite is one that we mentioned last month. The NYSE Composite is another.

image

As the chart shows, the NYSE topped in May 2015 at the 11,240 level. After a tumultuous 19 months, the index finally returned to that level in December. And after a couple weeks of a pullback, it is back testing that level again, closing yesterday at 11,246.

A couple observations: First, we do not ever want to anticipate a breakout. That is, don’t buy something with the assumption that it will break out in case the resistance is too much to overcome. Think about the whole “Dow 20,000″ focus that seemed like an inevitability. Sure, it may still happen but the Dow has spent 4 weeks within inches of the level without yet attaining it. Rest assured that if a security or index does finally break out, there will be plenty of time and profits to reap should it indeed prove to be a successful breakout.

On the other hand, there is reason to be optimistic that the NYSE will indeed breakout. That optimism may partially be fueled by a potential cup-&-handle formation on the NYSE chart. As we’ve discussed on several occasions, this is considered to be a bullish pattern. What does it look like and why is it bullish? The pattern involves 2 parts, generally showing the following characteristics:

The Cup (May 2015-December 2016): This phase includes an initial high on the left side of a chart followed by a relatively long, often-rounded retrenchment before a return to the initial high.

The Handle (December 2016-January 2017): This phase involves a shorter, shallower dip in the security and subsequent recovery to


continue reading





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Azerbaijan: Energy Hopes vs. Italian Olive Groves

By EurasiaNet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline is a key element of Azerbaijan’s efforts to export its greatest source of wealth, its Caspian Sea natural gas deposits, to European markets. It is also a cornerstone of the European Union’s strategy to weaken Russia’s hold on European gas markets.

The pipeline’s route, however, passes through ancient olive groves and over pristine beaches in the Italian region of Puglia, which relies on that bucolic landscape for its major industry, tourism.

Azerbaijan

That has set up a standoff between global energy interests and local environmental activists. And with a December referendum in Italy that reinforced local governments’ auton...



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Zero Hedge

Billionaire Dem Donor Thinks His Party Needs A New Message - "No One Votes For Polar Bears"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Tom Steyer, the Billionaire founder of the hedge fund Farallon Capital, spent $87mm funding liberal campaigns and ballot measures all across the country in 2016 and got absolutely nothing in return but a Republican-controlled Congress and White House.  Something tells us the 2016 election cycle was one of the worst "investment" ROI's of Steyer's life.

But despite his stunning losses, like Obama, Steyer is convinced that Americans still overwhelming agree with liberal policies...it's just that those policies aren't being explained we...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut (Bloomberg)

OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply.

Wall Street stocks set to slip as Trump keeps investors on the back foot (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures tilted south on Monday as global markets grappled with uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Dona...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut (Bloomberg)

OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply.

Wall Street stocks set to slip as Trump keeps investors on the back foot (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures tilted south on Monday as global markets grappled with uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Dona...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Post Christmas- Gold Miners & Metals the place to be!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Christmas is now nearly one month ago, how time flies. Ole Santa has been taking a rest and so far over the past month, the S&P 500 has done the same. Not so much for a few other high flying assets!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the first day of trading after the Christmas break, the broad market has been pretty quiet, up .23%. Bonds (TLT) and the Euro (FXE) have made a little bit more than the broad markets.

The Metals Sector has done pretty well since Christmas, as Gold ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 22, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

This rally is getting long in the tooth so simply from a duration standpoint some caution is merited. There are other reasons which we will outline later. That said this particular week was a quiet group of sessions with mild gains and losses mixed in; the market was closed on Monday. Earnings were the focus of the week as was the Trump speech Friday where investors may begin to start pivoting off hope for everything to be perfect, and start looking at the reality of Washington D.C. doing Washington D.C. things. Even with 1 party controlling both major branches.

Overseas, the European Central Bank, as expected, left interest rates unchanged Thursday. The decision was expected after the ECB last month decided to extend its bond buying program through the end of 2017. ECB head Mario Draghi said...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and Gold - Outlook and Safe Haven?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin and Gold – Outlook, Volatility and Safe Haven Diversification

Recent performance of bitcoin and gold

What does the recent volatility and surging price of bitcoin mean for the future of the crypto-currency and does its recent outperformance mean that it may supplant gold as a safe haven currency? Can bitcoin rival gold as a safe haven? Do bitcoin’s recent price gains herald gains for gold in 2017?

...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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